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CHAPTER 6: LONG-RUN ECONOMIC GROWTH
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
I. Goals of Chapter 6
A. Identify forces that determine the growth rate of an economy
1. Changes in productivity are key
2. Saving and investment decisions are also important
B. Examine policies governments may use to influence the rate of growth
II. Notes to Sixth Edition Users
A. New Application “Growth accounting: Alberta versus Saskatchewan” has
been added.
TEACHING NOTES
I. The Sources of Economic Growth (Sec. 6.1)
A. Production function Y = AF(K, N) (6.1)
1. Decompose into growth rate form
ΔY/Y = ΔA/A + aKΔK/K + aNΔN/N (6.2)
2. The terms aK and aN are the elasticities of output with respect to the
inputs (capital and labour)
3. Interpretation
a. A rise of 10% in A raises output by 10%
b. A rise of 10% in K raises output by aK times 10%
c. A rise of 10% in N raises output by aN times 10%
4. Both aK and aN are less than 1 due to diminishing marginal productivity
B. Growth accounting
1. Four steps in breaking output growth into its causes (productivity
growth, capital input growth, labour input growth) (Table 6.2)
a. Get data on ΔY/Y, ΔK/K and ΔN/N, adjusting for quality changes
b. Estimate aK and aN from historical data
c. Calculate the contributions of K and N as aKΔK/K and aNΔN/N,
respectively
d. Calculate productivity growth as the residual:
ΔA/A = ΔY/Y - aKΔK/K - aNΔN/N
Numerical Problems 1 and 2 are growth accounting exercises.
2. Application: Growth accounting and the East Asian “miracle”
a. The East Asian “tigers” (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea,
and Taiwan) have all grown over 7% per year for 25 years
b. Alwyn Young’s research found that their rapid growth resulted
from capital and labour growth, not productivity growth
c. The implication is that their rapid growth may stop soon, since
growth in inputs is hard to sustain permanently
3. Application: Growth accounting: Alberta versus Saskatchewan
4. Growth accounting and the productivity slowdown
a. Results for 1891–2009 (text Table 6.3)
(1) Highest growth rate between 1962–73 with productivity
growth 1.8%, labour growth 2.2%, and capital growth 1.3%.
Theoretical Application
Growth accounting provides the basis for the real business cycle (RBC) model of the
economy, which we will discuss in greater detail in Chapter 11 The RBC model takes
movements in total factor productivity to be the primary source of business cycle
fluctuations.
Data Application
Michael Denny et al in “Productivity in Manufacturing industries, Canada, Japan, and
the U.S. 1953-86: Was the ‘productivity slowdown’ reversed?” Canadian Journal of
Economics, 1992 August pp. 548-603 argue that during the last twelve year period
measured, from 1973-85, productivity growth in the majority of Canadian manufacturing
industries was much lower than during the first twelve years, from 1961-75. They
suggest that the decline in Canadian manufacturing productivity growth may have been
concentrated in the period 1973-80, and there may have been a recovery after 1980.
II. Growth Dynamics: The Neoclassical Growth Model (Sec. 6.2)
A. Three basic questions about growth
1. What’s the relationship between the long-run standard of living and the
saving rate, population growth rate, and rate of technical progress?
2. How does economic growth change over time? Will it speed up, slow
down, or stabilize?
3. Are there economic forces that will allow poorer countries to catch up
to richer countries?
B. Setup of the model
1. Basic assumptions and variables
a. Population and work force grow at same rate n
b. Economy is closed and G = 0
c. Ct = Yt – It (6.3)
d. Rewrite everything in per-worker terms: yt = Yt/Nt; ct = Ct/Nt; kt =
Kt/Nt
e. kt is also called the capital–labour ratio
2. The production function
a. Yt = AtF(Kt,Nt) (6.4)
b. Assume no productivity growth for now (add it later)
c. Plot of per-worker production function—text Fig. 6.1
d. Same shape as aggregate production function
Numerical Problem 5, 6, and Analytical Problem 6 work with the per-worker production
function.
3. Steady states
a. Steady state: yt, ct, and kt, are constant over time
b. Gross investment must
(1) Replace worn out capital, dKt
(2) Expand so the capital stock grows as the economy grows,
nKt
c. yt = Atf(kt) (6.5)
d. From Eq. (6.3), Ct = Yt – It = Yt – (n + d)Kt (6.7)
e. In per-worker terms, in steady state c = Af(k) – (n + d)k (6.8)
f. Plot of c, Af(k), and (n + d)k (Fig. 6.1; identical to text Fig. 6.2)
g. Increasing k will increase c up to a point
(1) This is kG, in the figure
(2) For k beyond this point, c will decline
(3) But we assume henceforth that k is less than kG, so c
always rises as k rises
y, (n+d)k
(n+d)k
y=Af(k)
k
c
kG kmax k
Figure 6.1
y=Af(k)
sAf(k), (n+d)k, y
(n+d)k)
sAf(k)
k
k*
Figure 6.2
saving. Note that an increase in the saving rate will increase the steady-state
capital–labour ratio, but will not increase the long-run rate of economic growth.
One way that government policy can increase productivity is by spending more on
the economy's infrastructure, which has been neglected over the past two decades
in Canada. Another possibility is to support the creation of human capital by
spending more on education and training programs, and reducing barriers to
entrepreneurial activity. The government can also support commercially oriented
research, perhaps going so far as to develop an industrial policy. The issue in all
these cases is whether the free market by itself provides an efficient outcome.
A one-time increase in productivity will increase the steady-state capital–labour ratio
but will not increase the long-run rate of economic growth. To increase the long-run
rate of economic growth, the growth rate of productivity must be permanently
increased.
Numerical Problems
1. Hare: $5000 × (1.03)50 = $21,919.50
Tortoise: $5000 × (1.01)50 = $8,223.1
2.
20 years ago Today Percent change
Y 1000 1300 30%
K 2500 3250 30%
N 500 575 15%
a. ΔA/A = akΔK/K - aNΔN/N
= 30% – (0.3 × 30%) – 0.7 × 15%
= 30% – 9% – 10.5%
= 10.5%
Capital growth contributed 9% (aKΔK/K), labour growth contributed 10.5%
(aNΔN/N), productivity growth was 10.5%.
b. ΔA/A = 30% – (0.5 x 30%) – (0.5 × 15%)
= 30% – 15% – 7.5%
= 7.5%
Capital growth contributed 15% (aKΔK/K), labour growth contributed 7.5%
(aNΔN/N), productivity growth was 7.5%.
3. a.
Year K N Y K/N Y/N
1 200 1000 617 0.20 0.617
2 250 1000 660 0.25 0.660
3 250 1250 771 0.20 0.617
4 300 1200 792 0.25 0.660
This production function can be written in per-worker form since Y/N = K·8N·7/N
= K S/N·3 = (K/N)·3 Note that K/N is the same in years 1 and 3, and so is Y/N.
Also, K/N is the same in years 2 and 4. and so is Y/N.
b.
Year K N Y K/N Y/N
1 200 1000 1231 0.20 1.231
2 250 1000 1316 0.25 1.316
3 250 1250 1574 0.20 1.259
4 300 1200 1609 0.25 1.341
This production function can't be written in per-worker form since Y/N =
K·8N·8/N = K·8/N·2. Note that K/N is the same in years 1 and 3, but Y/N is not the
same in these years. The same is true for years 2 and 4.
4. To answer this problem, an approximate solution can be found by finding the ratio
GDP (1998)/GDP (1950), taking the natural logarithm of that ratio and dividing by 48
This is the answer given in the table below. [A more exact solution is found by
raising GDP ratio to the 1/48 power and subtracting one; this is now shown below.]
Real GDP per capita Growth
1950 1989 Ratio rate
Australia 7,493 20,390 2.72 2.1%
Canada 7,437 20,559 2.76 2.1%
France 5,270 19,558 3.71 2.8%
Germany 3,881 17,799 4.59 3.2%
Japan 1,926 20,084 10.43 5.0%
Sweden 6,738 18,685 2.77 2.1%
United Kingdom 6,907 18,714 2.71 2.1%
United States 9,561 27,331 2.86 2.2%
Germany and Japan had the highest growth rates because damage from World War
II caused capital per worker to be lower than its steady-state level, and thus output
per worker was temporarily low.
In turn this points to growth model factors such as technology and capital. In other
words, Japan and Germany reaped the benefits of the new technology that came
with the new capital goods being constructed after the war. Other countries, not
faced with the massive reconstruction, were still using older technology and
depreciated capital goods.
5. a. sf(k) = (n + a)k
0.3 x 3k5 = (0.05 + 0.1)k
0.9k5 = 0.15k
0.9/0.15 = k/k5
6 = k5
k = 62 = 36
y = 3k5 = 3 x 6 = 18
c = y – (n+ d)k = 18 – (0.15 x 36) = 12.6
b. sf(k) = (n + d)k
0.4 × 3k5 = (0.05 + 0.1)k
1.2k5 = 0.15k
1.2/0.15 = kk5
8 = k5
k = 82 = 64
y = 3k5 = 3x8 = 24
c = y – (n + d)k = 24 – (0.15 x 64) = 14.4
c. sf(k) = (n + d)k
0.3 x 3k5 = (0.08 + 0.1)k
0.9k5 = 0.18k
0.9/0.18 = k/k5
5 = k5
k = 52 = 25
y = 3k5 = 3x5 = 15
c = y – (n + d)k = 15 + (0.18 x 25) = 10.5
d. sf(k) = (n + d)k
0.3 × 4k5 = (0.05 + 0.1)k
1.2k5 = 0.15k
1.2/0.15 = k/k5
8 = k5
k = 82 = 64
y = 4k5 = 4 × 8 = 32
c = y – (n+ d)k = 32 – (0.15 x 64) = 22.4
6. a. In steady state, sf(k) = (n + d)k
0.1 x 6k.5 = (0.01 + 0.14)k
0.6k.5 = 0.15k
0.6 / 0.15 = k / k.5
4 = k.5
k = 42 = 16 = capital per worker
y = 6k.5 = 6 x 4 = 24 = output per worker
c = .9 y = .9 x 24 = 21.6 = consumption per worker
(n + d)k = .15 x 16 = 2.4 = investment per worker
4. St = sYt – hKt = Nt(syt – hkt). Setting St = It yields Nt( syt – hkt) = (n + d)Kt. Dividing
through by Nt and eliminating time subscripts for steady-state variables gives sy – hk
= (n + d)k. Rearranging and using the expression y = f(k) gives sf(k) = (n + d+ h)k.
The steady-state value of capital per worker, k*, is given by the intersection of the (n
+ d + h)k line with the sf(k) curve, as shown
in Fig. 6.8. Output per worker is f(k*). Since
Ct = Yt – St, c = y – (sy – hk) = (1 – x)f(k*)
+ hk*. This expression gives consumption
per worker.
A change in the steady-state value of h
increases the slope of the (n + d + h)k line,
as shown in Fig. 6.9. This reduces the
steady-state value of per-worker capital
(k*), per-worker output [since y* = f(k*)],
and per-worker consumption [since c* = (1
– s)y* + hk* and both y* and k* decline].
5. The initial level of the capital–labour ratio is
irrelevant for the steady state. Two
economies that are identical except for
their initial capital–labour ratios will have
exactly the same steady state.
Figure 6.9
Since the two economies must have the
same growth rate at the steady state, and since the economy with the higher current
capital–labour ratio has higher current output per worker, then the country with the
lower current capital–labour ratio must grow faster.
The answer holds true regardless of which country is in a steady state. If the country
with a higher initial capital–labour ratio is in a steady state at capital–labour ratio k*,
then the other country's capital–labour ratio will rise until it too equals k*. So the
country with the lower capital–labour ratio grows faster than the one with the higher
capital–labour ratio.
If the country with the lower initial capital–labour ratio is in a steady state at capital–
labour ratio k*, then the other country's capital–labour ratio is too high and it will
decline until it equals k'. So the country with the higher capital–labour ratio must
grow more slowly than the country with the lower capital–labour ratio.
If the two countries are allowed to trade with each other, then their convergence to
the same capital–labour ratio and output per worker will occur even faster.
6. The growth accounting equation is
ΔY/Y = ΔA/A + (aKΔK/K) + (aKΔN/N)
We are just increasing the amount of capital and labour, and there is no change in
productivity, ΔA/A = 0. If the production function can be written in per-worker terms,
then total output must increase in the same proportion as the percentage increase in
capital and labour, so ΔK/K = ΔN/N = ΔY/Y = X. Plugging this into the growth
accounting equation,
ΔY/Y = A/A + (aKΔK/K) + (aKΔN/N),
X = 0 + aKX + aNX,
X = (aK +an)X,
aK + a N = 1
7. Assume there are a constant number of workers, N, so that Ny = Y and Nk = K.
Since y = Akah1−a and h = Bk, then y = Aka(Bk)1−a = (AB1−a)k. Then Y = Ny =
(AB1−a)K =XK, where X equals AB1−a. This puts the production function in notation
used in the chapter.
Investment is )K + dK= sY = national saving. Dividing through both sides of that
expression by K and using the production function gives )K/K + d= sXK/K = sX, so
)K/K = sX − d, which is the long-run growth rate of physical capital. Since output and
human capital are proportional to physical capital, they will all grow at the same rate.
8. a. As explained in the text, a technological advance that increases productivity
causes the per capita savings and output functions to pivot upward.
Consumption per person increases at every capital–labour ratio. Thus a
productivity enhancement makes the average citizen better off, both
immediately after the technological advance and in the long run after the
economy adjusts to a new steady-state
b. They can’t. The diagram can only show how the average citizen benefits from
the technological advance. It is useful to remember that there are adjustment
costs to be suffered as a result of any technological advance. The croppers
were legitimately concerned that their skills had been made redundant with the
introduction of the new mechanized textile loom. Until they could retrain and
find new employment, the croppers would suffer loss of income.
c. The technological advance moves the economy to a steady state at a higher
capital–labour ratio. This adjustment means we slide up the per capita prod-
uction function. This movement involves an increase in output per capita (y).
Since y = Y/N, then during the period of adjustment the rate of growth in Y must
exceed the rate of growth in N. In steady state, Y grows at the same rate as N.
So, in the period of adjustment, output grows faster than in the steady state.
Elisabetta.
Count.
Not yet!
Elisabetta.
Elisabetta.
[Exit.
Count (sings).
Count.
Filippo.
Lady Giovanna.
I thank you, good Filippo.
[Exit Filippo.
Here’s a fine fowl for my lady; I had scant time to do him in. I
hope he be not underdone, for we be undone in the doing of
him.
Lady Giovanna.
And here are fine fruits for my lady—prunes, my lady, from the
tree that my lord himself planted here in the blossom of his
boyhood—and so I, Filippo, being, with your ladyship’s pardon,
and as your ladyship knows, his lordship’s own foster-brother,
would commend them to your ladyship’s most peculiar
appreciation.
Elisabetta.
Filippo!
Count.
I cannot,
Not a morsel, not one morsel. I have broken
My fast already. I will pledge you. Wine!
Filippo, wine!
Count.
Lady Giovanna.
Elisabetta.
Filippo! will you take the word out of your master’s own
mouth?
Filippo.
Was it there to take? Put it there, my lord.
Count.
Filippo.
Elisabetta.
Filippo!
Count.
A troop of horse——
Filippo.
Five
hundred!
Count.
Say fifty!
Filippo.
Filippo!
Filippo.
Count.
Elisabetta.
Count.
Elisabetta.
Ay, and I left two fingers there for dead. See, my lady!
(Showing his hand).
Lady Giovanna.
I see, Filippo!
Filippo.
Lady Giovanna.
[Smiling absently.
Filippo.
Elisabetta.
Count (rising).
Silence, Elisabetta!
Elisabetta.
Count.
Lady Giovanna.
Filippo.
But the prunes, my lady, from the tree that his lordship——
Lady Giovanna.
Count.
Elisabetta.
Filippo!
Count.
Elisabetta.
Filippo!
Filippo (turning).
[Exit.
Count.
And me too! Ay, the dear nurse will leave you alone; but, for
all that, she that has eaten the yolk is scarce like to swallow the
shell.
Lady Giovanna.
I have anger’d your good nurse; these old-world servants
Are all but flesh and blood with those they serve.
My lord, I have a present to return you,
And afterwards a boon to crave of you.
Count.
Lady Giovanna.
[Offering necklace.
If the phrase
“Return” displease you, we will say—exchange them
For your—for your——
Lady Giovanna.
Lady Giovanna.
No!
For that would seem accepting of your love,
I cannot brave my brother—but be sure
That I shall never marry again, my lord!
Count.
Sure?
Lady Giovanna.
Yes!
Count.
Lady Giovanna.
No!
For he would marry me to the richest man
In Florence; but I think you know the saying—
“Better a man without riches, than riches without a man.”
Count.
And be you
Gracious enough to let me know the boon
By granting which, if aught be mine to grant,
I should be made more happy than I hoped
Ever to be again.
Lady Giovanna.
Count.
Lady Giovanna.
Count.
What? my time?
Is it my time? Well, I can give my time
To him that is a part of you, your son.
Shall I return to the castle with you? Shall I
Sit by him, read to him, tell him my tales,
Sing him my songs? You know that I can touch
The ghittern to some purpose.
Lady Giovanna.
Count.
Lady Giovanna.
Count.
Give me.
Lady Giovanna.
His falcon.
My falcon!
Lady Giovanna.
Count.
Alas, I cannot!
Lady Giovanna.
[Turns.
Count.
No, Madonna!
And he will have to bear with it as he may.
Lady Giovanna.
Count.
Yes, Giovanna,
But he will keep his love to you for ever!
Lady Giovanna.
Count (impetuously).
—crown you
Again with the same crown my Queen of Beauty.
We two together
Will help to heal your son—your son and mine—
We shall do it—we shall do it.
[Embraces her.
Lady Giovanna.
S. D.
POEMS 6 0
MAUD, AND OTHER POEMS 3 6
THE PRINCESS 3 6
IDYLLS OF THE KING (Collected) 6 0
ENOCH ARDEN, etc. 3 6
THE HOLY GRAIL, AND OTHER POEMS 4 6
IN MEMORIAM 4 0
BALLADS, AND OTHER POEMS 5 0
HAROLD: A DRAMA 6 0
QUEEN MARY: A DRAMA 6 0
THE LOVER’S TALE 3 6
MACMILLAN AND CO., LONDON.
*** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE CUP; AND
THE FALCON ***