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Intermittent Demand Forecasting
Intermittent Demand Forecasting

Context, Methods and Applications

John E. Boylan
Lancaster University
Lancaster, UK

Aris A. Syntetos
Cardiff University
Cardiff, UK
This edition first published 2021
© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

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For Jan and Rachel
 vii

Contents

Preface xix
Glossary xxi
About the Companion Website xxiii

1 Economic and Environmental Context 1

1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Economic and Environmental Benefits 3
1.2.1 After-sales Industry 3
1.2.2 Defence Sector 4
1.2.3 Economic Benefits 5
1.2.4 Environmental Benefits 5
1.2.5 Summary 6
1.3 Intermittent Demand Forecasting Software 6
1.3.1 Early Forecasting Software 6
1.3.2 Developments in Forecasting Software 6
1.3.3 Open Source Software 7
1.3.4 Summary 7
1.4 About this Book 7
1.4.1 Optimality and Robustness 7
1.4.2 Business Context 8
1.4.3 Structure of the Book 9
1.4.4 Current and Future Applications 10
1.4.5 Summary 10
1.5 Chapter Summary 11
Technical Note 11

2 Inventory Management and Forecasting 13

2.1 Introduction 13
2.2 Scheduling and Forecasting 13
2.2.1 Material Requirements Planning (MRP) 13
2.2.2 Dependent and Independent Demand Items 14
2.2.3 Make to Stock 15
2.2.4 Summary 15
viii Contents

2.3 Should an Item Be Stocked at All? 15

2.3.1 Stock/Non-Stock Decision Rules 16
2.3.2 Historical or Forecasted Demand? 18
2.3.3 Summary 18
2.4 Inventory Control Requirements 19
2.4.1 How Should Stock Records be Maintained? 19
2.4.2 When are Forecasts Required for Stocking Decisions? 22
2.4.3 Summary 24
2.5 Overview of Stock Rules 25
2.5.1 Continuous Review Systems 25
2.5.2 Periodic Review Systems 26
2.5.3 Periodic Review Policies 28
2.5.4 Variations of the (R, S) Periodic Policy 29
2.5.5 Summary 30
2.6 Chapter Summary 30
Technical Notes 31

3 Service Level Measures 33

3.1 Introduction 33
3.2 Judgemental Ordering 34
3.2.1 Rules of Thumb for the Order-Up-To Level 34
3.2.2 Judgemental Adjustment of Orders 34
3.2.3 Summary 35
3.3 Aggregate Financial and Service Targets 35
3.3.1 Aggregate Financial Targets 36
3.3.2 Service Level Measures 36
3.3.3 Relationships Between Service Level Measures 38
3.3.4 Summary 39
3.4 Service Measures at SKU Level 39
3.4.1 Cost Factors 39
3.4.2 Understanding of Service Level Measures 40
3.4.3 Potential Service Level Measures 40
3.4.4 Choice of Service Level Measure 41
3.4.5 Summary 42
3.5 Calculating Cycle Service Levels 42
3.5.1 Distribution of Demand Over One Time Period 43
3.5.2 Cycle Service Levels Based on All Cycles 44
3.5.3 Cycle Service Levels Based on Cycles with Demand 45
3.5.4 Summary 47
3.6 Calculating Fill Rates 48
3.6.1 Unit Fill Rates 48
3.6.2 Fill Rates: Standard Formula 49
3.6.3 Fill Rates: Sobel’s Formula 51
3.6.4 Summary 53
 Contents ix

3.7 Setting Service Level Targets 53

3.7.1 Responsibility for Target Setting 53
3.7.2 Trade-off Between Service and Cost 54
3.7.3 Setting SKU Level Service Targets 55
3.7.4 Summary 56
3.8 Chapter Summary 56
Technical Note 57

4 Demand Distributions 59
4.1 Introduction 59
4.2 Estimation of Demand Distributions 60
4.2.1 Empirical Demand Distributions 60
4.2.2 Fitted Demand Distributions 62
4.2.3 Summary 64
4.3 Criteria for Demand Distributions 64
4.3.1 Empirical Evidence for Goodness of Fit 64
4.3.2 Further Criteria 64
4.3.3 Summary 65
4.4 Poisson Distribution 65
4.4.1 Shape of the Poisson Distribution 66
4.4.2 Summary 67
4.5 Poisson Demand Distribution 67
4.5.1 Poisson: A Priori Grounds 67
4.5.2 Poisson: Ease of Calculation 67
4.5.3 Poisson: Flexibility 68
4.5.4 Poisson: Goodness of Fit 69
4.5.5 Testing for Goodness of Fit 70
4.5.6 Summary 72
4.6 Incidence and Occurrence 72
4.6.1 Demand Incidence 72
4.6.2 Demand Occurrence 73
4.6.3 Summary 74
4.7 Poisson Demand Incidence Distribution 75
4.7.1 A Priori Grounds 75
4.7.2 Ease of Calculation 75
4.7.3 Flexibility 76
4.7.4 Goodness of Fit 76
4.7.5 Summary 79
4.8 Bernoulli Demand Occurrence Distribution 79
4.8.1 Bernoulli Distribution: A Priori Grounds 79
4.8.2 Bernoulli Distribution: Ease of Calculation 80
4.8.3 Bernoulli Distribution: Flexibility 81
4.8.4 Bernoulli Distribution: Goodness of Fit 81
4.8.5 Summary 82
4.9 Chapter Summary 82
Technical Notes 83
x Contents

5 Compound Demand Distributions 87

5.1 Introduction 87
5.2 Compound Poisson Distributions 88
5.2.1 Compound Poisson: A Priori Grounds 89
5.2.2 Compound Poisson: Flexibility 89
5.2.3 Summary 89
5.3 Stuttering Poisson Distribution 90
5.3.1 Stuttering Poisson: A Priori Grounds 91
5.3.2 Stuttering Poisson: Ease of Calculation 91
5.3.3 Stuttering Poisson: Flexibility 93
5.3.4 Stuttering Poisson: Goodness of Fit for Demand Sizes 93
5.3.5 Summary 95
5.4 Negative Binomial Distribution 96
5.4.1 Negative Binomial: A Priori Grounds 96
5.4.2 Negative Binomial: Ease of Calculation 96
5.4.3 Negative Binomial: Flexibility 97
5.4.4 Negative Binomial: Goodness of Fit 98
5.4.5 Summary 99
5.5 Compound Bernoulli Distributions 100
5.5.1 Compound Bernoulli: A Priori Grounds 100
5.5.2 Compound Bernoulli: Ease of Calculation 100
5.5.3 Compound Bernoulli: Flexibility 100
5.5.4 Compound Bernoulli: Goodness of Fit 101
5.5.5 Summary 101
5.6 Compound Erlang Distributions 101
5.6.1 Compound Erlang Distributions: A Priori Grounds 103
5.6.2 Compound Erlang Distributions: Ease of Calculation 104
5.6.3 Compound Erlang-2: Flexibility 104
5.6.4 Compound Erlang-2: Goodness of Fit 104
5.6.5 Summary 105
5.7 Differing Time Units 105
5.7.1 Poisson Distribution 106
5.7.2 Compound Poisson Distribution 106
5.7.3 Compound Bernoulli and Compound Erlang Distributions 107
5.7.4 Normal Distribution 108
5.7.5 Summary 110
5.8 Chapter Summary 110
Technical Notes 111
6 Forecasting Mean Demand 117
6.1 Introduction 117
6.2 Demand Assumptions 118
6.2.1 Elements of Intermittent Demand 119
6.2.2 Demand Models 119
6.2.3 An Intermittent Demand Model 120
6.2.4 Summary 121
 Contents xi

6.3 Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) 121

6.3.1 SES as an Error-correction Mechanism 122
6.3.2 SES as a Weighted Average of Previous Observations 122
6.3.3 Practical Considerations 125
6.3.4 Summary 126
6.4 Croston’s Critique of SES 126
6.4.1 Bias After Demand Occurring Periods 126
6.4.2 Magnitude of Bias After Demand Occurring Periods 128
6.4.3 Bias After Review Intervals with Demands 128
6.4.4 Summary 129
6.5 Croston’s Method 129
6.5.1 Method Specification 129
6.5.2 Method Application 130
6.5.3 Summary 131
6.6 Critique of Croston’s Method 132
6.6.1 Bias of Size-interval Approaches 132
6.6.2 Inversion Bias 132
6.6.3 Quantification of Bias 133
6.6.4 Summary 134
6.7 Syntetos–Boylan Approximation 134
6.7.1 Practical Application 134
6.7.2 Framework for Correction Factors 135
6.7.3 Initialisation and Optimisation 135
6.7.4 Summary 138
6.8 Aggregation for Intermittent Demand 138
6.8.1 Temporal Aggregation 138
6.8.2 Cross-sectional Aggregation 141
6.8.3 Summary 142
6.9 Empirical Studies 143
6.9.1 Single Series, Single Period Approaches 143
6.9.2 Single Series, Multiple Period Approaches 144
6.9.3 Summary 145
6.10 Chapter Summary 145
Technical Notes 146

7 Forecasting the Variance of Demand and Forecast Error 151

7.1 Introduction 151
7.2 Mean Known, Variance Unknown 151
7.2.1 Mean Demand Unchanging Through Time 152
7.2.2 Relating Variance Over One Period to Variance Over the Protection
Interval 152
7.2.3 Summary 153
7.3 Mean Unknown, Variance Unknown 153
7.3.1 Mean and Variance Unchanging Through Time 154
7.3.2 Mean or Variance Changing Through Time 155
xii Contents

7.3.3 Relating Variance Over One Period to Variance Over the Protection
Interval 156
7.3.4 Direct Approach to Estimating Variance of Forecast Error Over the
Protection Interval 158
7.3.5 Implementing the Direct Approach to Estimating Variance Over the
Protection Interval 160
7.3.6 Summary 160
7.4 Lead Time Variability 161
7.4.1 Consequences of Recognising Lead Time Variance 161
7.4.2 Variance of Demand Over a Variable Lead Time (Known Mean
Demand) 162
7.4.3 Variance of Demand Over a Variable Lead Time (Unknown Mean
Demand) 163
7.4.4 Distribution of Demand Over a Variable Lead Time 164
7.4.5 Summary 165
7.5 Chapter Summary 165
Technical Notes 166

8 Inventory Settings 169

8.1 Introduction 169
8.2 Normal Demand 170
8.2.1 Order-up-to Levels for Four Scenarios 170
8.2.2 Scenario 1: Mean and Standard Deviation Known 170
8.2.3 Scenario 2: Mean Demand Unknown Standard Deviation Known 172
8.2.4 Scenario 3: Mean Demand Known Standard Deviation Unknown 175
8.2.5 Scenario 4: Mean and Standard Deviation Unknown 176
8.2.6 Summary 177
8.3 Poisson Demand 177
8.3.1 Cycle Service Level System when the Mean Demand is Known 177
8.3.2 Fill Rate System when the Mean Demand is Known 178
8.3.3 Poisson OUT Level when the Mean Demand is Unknown 179
8.3.4 Summary 181
8.4 Compound Poisson Demand 181
8.4.1 Stuttering Poisson OUT Level when the Parameters are Known 181
8.4.2 Negative Binomial OUT Levels when the Parameters are Known 183
8.4.3 Stuttering Poisson and Negative Binomial OUT Levels when the Parameters
are Unknown 183
8.4.4 Summary 184
8.5 Variable Lead Times 184
8.5.1 Empirical Lead Time Distributions 184
8.5.2 Summary 185
8.6 Chapter Summary 185
Technical Notes 186
 Contents xiii

9 Accuracy and Its Implications 193

9.1 Introduction 193
9.2 Forecast Evaluation 194
9.2.1 Only One Step Ahead? 194
9.2.2 All Points in Time? 194
9.2.3 Summary 195
9.3 Error Measures in Common Usage 195
9.3.1 Popular Forecast Error Measures 195
9.3.2 Calculation of Forecast Errors 197
9.3.3 Mean Error 197
9.3.4 Mean Square Error 198
9.3.5 Mean Absolute Error 198
9.3.6 Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 198
9.3.7 100% Minus MAPE 199
9.3.8 Forecast Value Added 199
9.3.9 Summary 200
9.4 Criteria for Error Measures 200
9.4.1 General Criteria 200
9.4.2 Additional Criteria for Intermittence 201
9.4.3 Summary 201
9.5 Mean Absolute Percentage Error and its Variants 201
9.5.1 Problems with the Mean Absolute Percentage Error 202
9.5.2 Mean Absolute Percentage Error from Forecast 202
9.5.3 Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error 203
9.5.4 MAPEFF and sMAPE for Intermittent Demand 204
9.5.5 Summary 205
9.6 Measures Based on the Mean Absolute Error 205
9.6.1 MAE: Mean Ratio 205
9.6.2 Mean Absolute Scaled Error 206
9.6.3 Measures Based on Absolute Errors 207
9.6.4 Summary 208
9.7 Measures Based on the Mean Error 208
9.7.1 Desirability of Unbiased Forecasts 209
9.7.2 Mean Error 209
9.7.3 Mean Percentage Error 210
9.7.4 Scaled Bias Measures 210
9.7.5 Summary 211
9.8 Measures Based on the Mean Square Error 211
9.8.1 Scaled Mean Square Error 212
9.8.2 Relative Root Mean Square Error 212
9.8.3 Percentage Best 213
9.8.4 Summary 213
xiv Contents

9.9 Accuracy of Predictive Distributions 214

9.9.1 Measuring Predictive Distribution Accuracy 214
9.9.2 Probability Integral Transform for Continuous Data 215
9.9.3 Probability Integral Transform for Discrete Data 215
9.9.4 Summary 217
9.10 Accuracy Implication Measures 218
9.10.1 Simulation Outline 218
9.10.2 Forecasting Details 218
9.10.3 Simulation Details 219
9.10.4 Comparison of Simulation Results 220
9.10.5 Summary 221
9.11 Chapter Summary 221
Technical Notes 221

10 Judgement, Bias, and Mean Square Error 225

10.1 Introduction 225
10.2 Judgemental Forecasting 225
10.2.1 Evidence on Prevalence of Judgemental Forecasting 226
10.2.2 Judgemental Biases 226
10.2.3 Effectiveness of Judgemental Forecasts: Evidence for Non-intermittent
Items 229
10.2.4 Effectiveness of Judgemental Forecasts: Evidence for Intermittent
Items 230
10.2.5 Summary 231
10.3 Forecast Bias 232
10.3.1 Monitoring and Detection of Bias 232
10.3.2 Bias as an Expectation of a Random Variable 234
10.3.3 Response to Different Causes of Bias 235
10.3.4 Summary 236
10.4 The Components of Mean Square Error 236
10.4.1 Calculation of Mean Square Error 236
10.4.2 Decomposition of Expected Squared Errors 236
10.4.3 Decomposition of Expected Squared Errors for Independent Demand 238
10.4.4 Summary 239
10.5 Chapter Summary 240
Technical Notes 240

11 Classification Methods 243

11.1 Introduction 243
11.2 Classification Schemes 244
11.2.1 The Purpose of Classification 244
11.2.2 Classification Criteria 245
11.2.3 Summary 245
11.3 ABC Classification 246
11.3.1 Pareto Principle 246
 Contents xv

11.3.2 Service Criticality 246

11.3.3 ABC Classification and Forecasting 247
11.3.4 Summary 248
11.4 Extensions to the ABC Classification 248
11.4.1 Composite Criterion Approach 249
11.4.2 Multi-criteria Approaches 250
11.4.3 Classification for Spare Parts 250
11.4.4 Summary 251
11.5 Conceptual Clarifications 251
11.5.1 Definition of Non-normal Demand Patterns 251
11.5.2 Conceptual Framework 252
11.5.3 Summary 253
11.6 Classification Based on Demand Sources 254
11.6.1 Demand Generation 254
11.6.2 A Qualitative Classification Approach 254
11.6.3 Summary 255
11.7 Forecasting-based Classifications 255
11.7.1 Forecasting and Generalisation 256
11.7.2 Classification Solutions 257
11.7.3 Summary 258
11.8 Chapter Summary 259
Technical Notes 260

12 Maintenance and Obsolescence 263

12.1 Introduction 263
12.2 Maintenance Contexts 264
12.2.1 Summary 265
12.3 Causal Forecasting 265
12.3.1 Causal Forecasting for Maintenance Management 266
12.3.2 Summary 268
12.4 Time Series Methods 268
12.4.1 Forecasting in the Presence of Obsolescence 269
12.4.2 Forecasting with Granular Maintenance Information 272
12.4.3 Summary 273
12.5 Forecasting in Context 273
12.6 Chapter Summary 275
Technical Notes 276

13 Non-parametric Methods 279

13.1 Introduction 279
13.2 Empirical Distribution Functions 280
13.2.1 Assumptions 281
13.2.2 Length of History 281
13.2.3 Summary 282
13.3 Non-overlapping and Overlapping Blocks 282
xvi Contents

13.3.1 Differences Between the Two Methods 282

13.3.2 Methods and Assumptions 284
13.3.3 Practical Considerations 284
13.3.4 Performance of Non-overlapping Blocks Method 285
13.3.5 Performance of Overlapping Blocks Method 285
13.3.6 Summary 286
13.4 Comparison of Approaches 286
13.4.1 Time Series Characteristics Favouring Overlapping Blocks 286
13.4.2 Empirical Evidence on Overlapping Blocks 287
13.4.3 Summary 289
13.5 Resampling Methods 289
13.5.1 Simple Bootstrapping 289
13.5.2 Bootstrapping Demand Sizes and Intervals 290
13.5.3 VZ Bootstrap and the Syntetos–Boylan Approximation 292
13.5.4 Extension of Methods to Variable Lead Times 293
13.5.5 Resampling Immediately After Demand Occurrence 293
13.5.6 Summary 294
13.6 Limitations of Simple Bootstrapping 294
13.6.1 Autocorrelated Demand 294
13.6.2 Previously Unobserved Demand Values 295
13.6.3 Summary 296
13.7 Extensions to Simple Bootstrapping 296
13.7.1 Discrete-time Markov Chains 296
13.7.2 Extension to Simple Bootstrapping Using Markov Chains 297
13.7.3 Jittering 299
13.7.4 Limitations of Jittering 300
13.7.5 Further Developments 300
13.7.6 Empirical Evidence on Bootstrapping Methods 300
13.7.7 Summary 302
13.8 Chapter Summary 302
Technical Notes 303

14 Model-based Methods 305

14.1 Introduction 305
14.2 Models and Methods 305
14.2.1 A Simple Model for Single Exponential Smoothing 306
14.2.2 Critique of Weighted Least Squares 307
14.2.3 ARIMA Models 307
14.2.4 The ARIMA(0,1,1) Model and SES 308
14.2.5 Summary 309
14.3 Integer Autoregressive Moving Average (INARMA) Models 309
14.3.1 Integer Autoregressive Model of Order One, INAR(1) 310
14.3.2 Integer Moving Average Model of Order One, INMA(1) 312
14.3.3 Mixed Integer Autoregressive Moving Average Models 312
14.3.4 Summary 313
 Contents xvii

14.4 INARMA Parameter Estimation 313

14.4.1 Parameter Estimation for INAR(1) Models 313
14.4.2 Parameter Estimation for INMA(1) Models 314
14.4.3 Parameter Estimation for INARMA(1,1) Models 314
14.4.4 Summary 315
14.5 Identification of INARMA Models 315
14.5.1 Identification Using Akaike’s Information Criterion 315
14.5.2 General Models and Model Identification 316
14.5.3 Summary 317
14.6 Forecasting Using INARMA Models 317
14.6.1 Forecasting INAR(1) Mean Demand 318
14.6.2 Forecasting INMA(1) Mean Demand 318
14.6.3 Forecasting INARMA(1,1) Mean Demand 319
14.6.4 Forecasting Using Temporal Aggregation 319
14.6.5 Summary 319
14.7 Predicting the Whole Demand Distribution 319
14.7.1 Protection Interval of One Period 320
14.7.2 Protection Interval of More Than One Period 320
14.7.3 Summary 322
14.8 State Space Models for Intermittence 322
14.8.1 Croston’s Demand Model 323
14.8.2 Proposed State Space Models 324
14.8.3 Summary 325
14.9 Chapter Summary 325
Technical Notes 325

15 Software for Intermittent Demand 329

15.1 Introduction 329
15.2 Taxonomy of Software 330
15.2.1 Proprietary Software 330
15.2.2 Open Source Software 332
15.2.3 Hybrid Solutions 333
15.2.4 Summary 333
15.3 Framework for Software Evaluation 333
15.3.1 Key Aspects of Software Evaluation 334
15.3.2 Additional Criteria 335
15.3.3 Summary 336
15.4 Software Features and Their Availability 336
15.4.1 Software Features for Intermittent Demand 336
15.4.2 Availability of Software Features 337
15.4.3 Summary 338
15.5 Training 339
15.5.1 Summary 340
15.6 Forecast Support Systems 340
15.6.1 Summary 341
xviii Contents

15.7 Alternative Perspectives 341

15.7.1 Bayesian Methods 342
15.7.2 Neural Networks 342
15.7.3 Summary 343
15.8 Way Forward 343
15.9 Chapter Summary 345
Technical Note 345

References 347
Author Index 365
Subject Index 367
 xix

Preface

The images on the front of this book highlight a crucial tension for all advanced economies.
There is a desire to travel more and consume more, but also a growing awareness of the
detrimental effects that this is having on the environment. There is a belated realisation
that those of us living in countries with developed economies need to consume less and
waste less.
Waste can occur at all stages of the supply chain. Consumers may buy food they never eat
or clothes they never wear. Retailers and wholesalers may order goods from manufacturers
that never sell. These wastages can be significantly reduced by better demand forecasting
and inventory management. Some items conform to regular demand patterns and are rel-
atively easy to forecast. Other items, with irregular and intermittent demand patterns, are
much harder.
Wastage can be addressed by changes in production, moving away from built-in obsoles-
cence and towards products that can be maintained and repaired economically. For this to
be an attractive proposition, spare parts need to be readily available. Unfortunately, these
items are often the most difficult to forecast because many of them are subject to the spo-
radic nature of intermittent demand. Although there have been significant advances in
intermittent demand forecasting over recent decades, these are not all available in com-
mercial software. In the final chapter of this book, we highlight the progress that has been
made, including methods that are freely available in open source software.
The reasons for the slow adoption of new forecasting methods and approaches in com-
mercial software are varied. We believe that one of the reasons is a lack of appreciation of
the benefits that may accrue. Because intermittent demand items are so difficult to forecast,
it may be thought that highly accurate forecasting methods can never be found. This may be
true. However, it is possible to find more accurate methods, which can contribute towards
significant improvements in inventory management.
There is also a need for greater awareness of the methods that have been developed in
recent years. Information on them is scattered amongst a variety of academic journals, and
some of the articles are highly technical. Therefore, we have set ourselves the challenge
of synthesizing this body of knowledge. We have endeavoured to bring together the main
strands of research into a coherent whole, and assuming no prior knowledge of the subject.
There are various perspectives from which demand forecasting can be addressed. One
option would be to take an operations management view, with a focus on forecasting and
planning processes. Another would be to take a more statistical perspective, starting with
xx Preface

mathematical models and working through their properties. While some of our material
has been influenced by these orientations, the dominant perspective of this book is that of
operational research (OR). The start point of OR should always be the real-life situation
that is encountered. This means that it is essential to gain an in-depth understanding of
inventory systems and how forecasts inform these decisions. Such an appreciation enables a
sharper focus on forecasting requirements and the appropriate criteria for a ‘good forecast’.
In this book, the first three chapters focus on the inventory management context in which
forecasting occurs, including the inventory policies and the service level measures that are
appropriate for intermittent demand. Recognising the interconnection between inventory
policies, demand distributions, and forecasting methods, the next two chapters focus on
demand distributions, including evidence from studies of real-world data. The following
two chapters concentrate on forecasting methods, with discussion of practical issues that
must be addressed in their implementation. We then turn to the linkage between forecasts
and inventory availability, and review how forecast accuracy should be measured and how
its implications for inventories should be assessed. We also look at how stock keeping units
should be classified for forecasting purposes, and examine methods designed specifically
to address maintenance and obsolescence. The next two chapters deal with methods that
can tackle more challenging demand patterns. We conclude with a review of forecasting
software requirements and our views on the way forward.
We are grateful to those pioneers who inspired us to study this subject, and who have
given us valuable advice over the years, especially John Croston, Roy Johnston, and Tom
Willemain. We would like to express our thanks to those who commented on draft chapters
of this book: Zied Babai, Stephen Disney, Robert Fildes, Thanos Goltsos, Matteo Kalch-
schmidt, Stephan Kolassa, Nikos Kourentzes, Mona Mohammadipour, Erica Pastore, Fotios
Petropoulos, Dennis Prak, Anna-Lena Sachs, and Ivan Svetunkov; and to Nicole Ayiomami-
tou and Antonis Siakallis who helped with the figures.

Lancaster and Cardiff John E. Boylan

January 2021 Aris A. Syntetos
 xxi

Glossary

ADIDA aggregate–disaggregate intermittent demand approach

AIC Akaike information criterion
AR autoregressive
ARIMA autoregressive integrated moving average
ARMA autoregressive moving average
APE absolute percentage error
BO backorder
BoM bill of materials
BS Brier score
CDF cumulative distribution function
CFE cumulative forecast error
CSL cycle service level (all replenishment cycles)
CSL+ cycle service level (replenishment cycles with some demand)
CV coefficient of variation
EDF empirical distribution function
ERP enterprise resource planning
FMECA failure mode, effects, and criticality analysis
FR fill rate
FSS forecast support system
FVA forecast value added
HES hyperbolic exponential smoothing
INAR integer autoregressive
INARMA integer autoregressive moving average
INMA integer moving average
IP inventory position
KS Kolmogorov–Smirnov (test)
LTD lead-time demand
MA moving average
MAD mean absolute deviation
MAE mean absolute error
MAPE mean absolute percentage error
MAPEFF mean absolute percentage error from forecast
MASE mean absolute scaled error
xxii Glossary

ME mean error
MMSE minimum mean square error
MPE mean percentage error
MPS master production schedule
MRO maintenance, repair, and operations
MRP material requirements planning
MSE mean square error
MSOE multiple source of error
MTO make to order
MTS make to stock
NBD negative binomial distribution
NN neural network
NOB non-overlapping blocks
OB overlapping blocks
OUT order up to
PIS periods in stock
PIT probability integral transform
RMSE root mean square error
rPIT randomised probability integral transform
S&OP sales and operations planning
SBA Syntetos–Boylan Approximation (method)
SBC Syntetos–Boylan–Croston (classification)
SCM supply chain management
SES single (or simple) exponential smoothing
SKU stock keeping unit
SLA service level agreement
SMA simple moving average
sMAPE symmetric mean absolute percentage error
sMSE scaled mean square error
SOH stock on hand
SOO stock on order
SSOE single source of error
TSB Teunter–Syntetos–Babai (method)
VZ Viswanathan–Zhou (method)
WMH Wright Modified Holt (method)
WSS Willemain–Smart–Schwarz (method)
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gloomy-looking grove skirting the back of the village. It was in vain
that I attempted to unravel the origin or meaning of this superstition;
to all my questions the only answer I could obtain was that such was
the fashion of the country—a reason which they always had at hand
when puzzled, as they always were when the subject related to any
of their numerous superstitions. The fact is, that these practices still
remain, though their origin has long since been buried in oblivion.”
As with us, “to astonish the natives” is an almost universal
weakness, so is it the sable savage’s delight and ambition to
“astonish the white man;” and should he succeed, and the odds are
manifestly against him, there are no bounds to his satisfaction. The
traveller Laing, while travelling through Timmanee, a country not very
far from that over which old King Passol held sway, experienced an
instance of this. He was invited by the chief to be present at an
entertainment resembling what we recognize as a “bal masqué,” as it
embraced music and dancing. The music, however, was of rather a
meagre character, consisting of a single instrument made of a
calabash and a little resembling a guitar. The player evidently
expected applause of the white man, and the white man generously
accorded it. The musician then declared that what our countrymen
had as yet witnessed of his performance was as nothing compared
with what he had yet to show him. Holding up his guitar, he declared
that with that potent instrument, the like of which was not to be found
throughout the length and breadth of Timmanee, he could cure
diseases of every sort, tame wild beasts, and render snakes so
docile that they would come out of their holes and dance as long as
the music lasted. Mr. Laing begged the enchanter to favour him with
a specimen of his skill. The enchanter was quite willing. Did anything
ail the traveller? Was any one of his party afflicted with disease? no
matter how inveterate or of how long standing, let him step forward,
and by a few twangs on the guitar he should be cured. Mr. Laing,
however, wishing perhaps to let the juggler off as lightly as possible,
pressed for a sight of the dancing snakes, on the distinct
understanding that they should be perfectly wild snakes, and such as
had never yet been taken in hand by mortal. The musician cheerfully
assented, and, to quote the words of the “eye-witness,” “changed the
air he had been strumming for one more lively, and immediately
there crept from beneath the stockading that surrounded the space
where we were assembled a snake of very large size. From the
reptile’s movements, it seemed that the music had only disturbed its
repose, and that its only desire was to seek fresh quarters, for
without noticing any one it glided rapidly across the yard towards the
further side. The musician, however, once more changed the tune,
playing a slow measure, and singing to it. The snake at once
betrayed considerable uneasiness, and decreased its speed. ‘Stop
snake,’ sung the musician, adapting the words to the tune he was
playing, ‘you go a deal too fast; stop at my command and show the
white man how well you can dance; obey my command at once, oh
snake, and give the white man service.’ Snake stopped. ‘Dance, oh
snake!’ continued the musician, growing excited, for a white man has
come to Falaba to see you! dance, oh snake, for indeed this is a
happy day!’ The snake twisted itself about, raised its head, curled,
leaped, and performed various feats, of which I should not have
thought a snake capable. At the conclusion the musician walked out
of the yard followed by the reptile, leaving me in no small degree
astonished, and the rest of the company not a little delighted that a
black man had been able to excite the surprise of a white one.”
In no part of Africa do we find a greater amount of religious
fanaticism than in Old Kalabar. The idea of God entertained by the
Kalabarese is confined to their incomprehensibility of natural causes,
which they attribute to Abasi-Ibun, the Efick term for Almighty God;
hence they believe he is too high and too great to listen to their
prayers and petitions. Idem-Efick is the name of the god who is
supposed to preside over the affairs of Kalabar, and who is
connected mysteriously with the great Abasi, sometimes represented
by a tree, and sometimes by a large snake, in which form he is only
seen by his high priest or vice-regent on earth—old King Kalabar. Mr.
Hutchinson, who resided in an official capacity in this queer heathen
country, once enjoyed the honour of an acquaintance with a
representative of Abasi-Ibun. “He was a lean, spare, withered old
man, about sixty years of age, a little above five feet in height, grey-
headed, and toothless. He wore generally a dressing-gown, with a
red cap, bands of bamboo rope round his neck, wrists, and ankles,
with tassels dangling at the end. In case of any special crime
committed, for the punishment of which there is no provision by
Egbo law, the question was at once referred to King Kalabar’s
judgment, whose decision of life or death was final. King Ergo and all
the gentlemen saluted him by a word of greeting peculiar to himself,
‘Etia,’ meaning in English, you sit there, which, amongst persons of
the slave order, must be joined with placing the side of the index
fingers in juxtaposition, and bowing humbly, as evidence of
obeisance. He offered up a weekly sacrifice to Idem of goats, fowls,
and tortoise, usually dressed with a little rum. When famine was
impending, or a dearth of ships existed at old Kalabar, the king sent
round to the gentlemen of the town an intimation of the necessity of
making an offering to the deity, and that Idem-Efick was in want of
coppers, which of course must be forwarded through the old king. He
had a privilege that every hippopotamus taken, or leopard shot, must
be brought to his house, that he may have the lion’s share of the
spoil. Since my first visit to Kalabar this old man has died, and has
yet had no successor, as the head men and people pretend to
believe ‘twelve moons (two years) must pass by before he be dead
for thrice.’ Besides this idea of worship, they have a deity named
Obu, made of calabash, to which the children are taught to offer up
prayer every morning, to keep them from harm. Idem-Nyanga is the
name of the tree which they hold as the impersonation of Idem-Efick;
and a great reverence is entertained for a shrub, whose pods when
pressed by the finger explode like a pistol. In all their meals they
perform ablution of the hands before and after it; and in drinking, spill
a teaspoonful or so out as a libation to their deity before imbibing.
When they kill a fowl or a goat as a sacrifice, they do not forget to
remind their god of what ‘fine things’ they do for him, and that ‘they
expect a like fine thing in return.’ Ekponyong is the title given to a
piece of stick, with a cloth tied round it at the top, and a skull placed
above the cloth, which is kept in many of their yards as a sort of
guardian spirit. In nearly all their courts there is a ju-ju tree growing
in the centre, with a parasitic plant attached to it, and an enclosure of
from two to four feet in circumference at the bottom of the stem,
within which skulls are always placed, and calabashes of blood at
times of sacrifice. At many of the gentlemen’s thresholds a human
skull is fastened in the ground, whose white glistening crown is
trodden upon by every one who enters.
“A strange biennial custom exists at old Kalabar, that of purifying
the town from all devils and evil spirits, who, in the opinion of the
authorities, have during the past two years taken possession of it.
They call it judok. And a similar ceremony is performed annually on
the gold coast. At a certain time a number of figures, styled
Nabikems, are fabricated and fixed indiscriminately through the
town. These figures are made of sticks and bamboo matting, being
moulded into different shapes. Some of them have an attempt at
body, with legs and arms to resemble the human form. Imaginative
artists sometimes furnish these specimens with an old straw hat, a
pipe in the mouth, and a stick fastened to the end of the arm, as if
they were prepared to undertake a journey. Many of the figures are
supposed to resemble four-footed animals, some crocodiles, and
others birds. The evil spirits are expected, after three weeks or a
month, to take up their residence in them, showing, to my thinking, a
very great want of taste on the part of the spirit vagrant. When the
night arrives for their general expulsion, one would imagine the
whole town had gone mad. The population feast and drink, and sally
out in parties, beating at empty covers, as if they contained tangible
objects to hunt, and hallooing with all their might and main. Shots are
fired, the Nabikems are torn up with violence, set in flames, and
thrown into the river. The orgies continue until daylight dawns, and
the town is considered clear of evil influence for two years more.
Strange inconsistency with ideas of the provision necessary to be
made for the dead in their passage to another world. But heathenism
is full of these follies, and few of them can be more absurd than their
belief that if a man is killed by a crocodile or a leopard, he is
supposed to have been the victim of some malicious enemy, who, at
his death, turned himself into either of these animals, to have
vengeance on the person that has just been devoured. Any man who
kills a monkey or a crocodile is supposed to be turned into one or the
other when he dies himself. On my endeavouring to convince two
very intelligent traders of Duketown of the folly of this, and of my
belief that men had no more power to turn themselves into beasts
than they had to make rain fall or grass grow, I was met with the
usual cool reply to all a European’s arguments for civilization, ‘It be
Kalabar fash(ion), and white men no saby any ting about it.’ The
same answer, ‘white men no saby any ting about it,’ was given to me
by our Yoruba interpreter when up the Tshadda, on my doubting two
supposed facts, which he thus recorded to me. The first was, that the
Houessa people believe in the existence of the unicorn, but his
precise location cannot be pointed out. He is accredited to be the
champion of the unprotected goat and sheep from the ravages of the
leopard; that when he meets a leopard he enters amicably into
conversation with him, descants upon his cruelty, and winds up, like
a true member of the humane society, by depriving the leopard of his
claws. On my asking if a clawless leopard had ever been discovered,
or if the unicorn had proposed any other species of food as a
substitute, observing me smile with incredulity, he gave me an
answer similar to that of the Kalabar men, in the instance mentioned.
The second, to the effect that a chameleon always went along at the
same pace, not quickening his steps for rain or wind, but going
steadily in all phases of temperature, changing his hue in
compliment to everything he met, turning black for black men, white
for white, blue, red, or green, for any cloth or flowers, or vegetables
that fall in his way; and the only reason he gives for it when
questioned on the subject is, that his father did the same before him,
and he does not think it right to deviate from the old path, because
‘same ting do for my fader, same ting do for me.’”
Quite by accident it happens that this answer of the Yoruba man
to Mr. Hutchinson’s arguments forms the concluding line of the many
examples of Savage Rites and Superstitions quoted. It is, however,
singularly apropos. In this single line is epitomised the guiding
principle of the savage’s existence—“Same ting do for my fader,
same ting do for me.” This it is that fetters and tethers him. He is
born to it, lives by it, and he dies by it.
Burying Alive in Figi.
 PART XII.
SAVAGE DEATH AND BURIAL.

CHAPTER XXVII.

Killing to cheat death—Preparing the king’s “grave grass”—The tomb

and its living tenant—Figian mourning symbols—Murder of sick
Figians—“Pray don’t bury me!”—The ominous cat clawing—The
sacrifice of fingers—The token of the bloody apron—The art of
embalming—The sin-hole—Ceremonies at King Finow’s funeral
—Heroic appeals to the departed king—The scene at the
sepulchre—The journey of the sand bearers—The Mée too Buggi
—Devotion of Finow’s fishermen—The Sandwich Islanders’
badge of mourning—Putting the tongue in black—A melancholy
procession—The house of Keave—The pahio tabu.

t by no means follows that a disrespect for human life is

synonomous with a personal indifference to death. To
whatever savage land we turn—to the banks of the
Mosquito, where lives the barbarous Sambo Indian; to the
deserts of Africa, the abode of the Griqua and Damara; to
the shores of solitary lakes far away in Northern America—we find a
horror of death, or rather of the work of death’s hands, singularly
incompatible with the recklessness of life observable in the countries
named.
No country on the face of the earth, however, can vie in the matter
of death and burial ceremonials with Figi. Here it would seem at first
sight that fear of death was unknown, so much so that parents will
consent to be clubbed to death by their children, and mothers
murder and with their own hands bury their children—where even
the grave has so few terrors that people will go down alive into it. It
may, however, be worth considering whether this apparent trifling
with life may not have for its source dread of the grim reaper in such
blind and ignorant excess as to lead to killing to save from dying—to
cheat death in fact, and enable the cunning cannibal to slink out of
the world unmissed and unquestioned as to the errors of his life. This
may seem the wildest theory; but it should be borne in mind that in
Figi, as in many other barbarous countries, it is believed that all that
is evil of a man lives after him, and unless necessary precautions are
adopted, remains to torment his relations; it is not improbable,
therefore, that these latter, if not the ailing one himself, may favour
this death-cheating system.
As regards burying alive, this at least may be said in favour of the
Figians: they are no respecters of persons. The grey hairs of the
monarch are no more respected than those of the poorest beggar in
his realm. Indeed, according to the testimony of an eye-witness—Mr.
Thomas Williams—the king is more likely to be sent quick to the
grave than any one else. Here is an instance:—
“On my first going to Somosomo, I entertained a hope that the old
king would be allowed to die a natural death, although such an event
would be without precedent. The usage of the land had been to
intimate that the king’s death was near by cleaning round about the
house, after which, his eldest son when bathing with his father took a
favourable opportunity, and dispatched him with his club.
“I visited him on the 21st, and was surprised to find him much
better than he had been two days before. On being told, therefore,
on the 24th that the king was dead, and that preparations were being
made for his interment, I could scarcely credit the report. The
ominous word preparing urged me to hasten without delay to the
scene of action, but my utmost speed failed to bring me to Nasima—
the king’s house—in time. The moment I entered it was evident that
as far as concerned two of the women I was too late to save their
lives. The effect of that scene was overwhelming. Scores of
deliberate murderers in the very act surrounded me: yet there was
no confusion, and, except a word from him who presided, no voice—
only an unearthly, horrid stillness. Nature seemed to lend her aid and
to deepen the dread effect; there was not a breath stirring in the air,
and the half subdued light in that hall of death showed every object
with unusual distinctness.
“All sat on the floor; the middle figure of each group being held in
a sitting posture by several females, and hidden by a large veil. On
either side of each veiled figure was a company of eight or ten strong
men, one company hauling against the other on a white cord which
was passed twice round the neck of the doomed one, who thus in a
few minutes ceased to live. As my self command was returning to
me the group furthest from me began to move; the men slackened
their hold and the attendant women removed the large covering,
making it into a couch for the victim.... One of the victims was a stout
woman and some of the executioners jocosely invited those who sat
near to have pity and help them. At length the women said ‘she is
cold.’ The fatal cord fell and as the covering was raised I saw dead
the oldest wife and unwearied attendant of the old king.”
These victims are used to pave the king’s grave. They are called
grass, and when they are arranged in a row at the bottom of the
sepulchre the king’s corpse is couched on them. It is only, however,
great chiefs who demand so extensive a human couch; a dignitary of
minor importance is content with two bodies as his grave floor:
sometimes a man and a woman, sometimes two women. If an
important personage dies it is considered intolerable if his
confidential man—his bosom friend and adviser—should object to
accompany his master as grass. It is very common, too, when a
great man dies in Figi to strangle and bury with him an able bodied
man, who takes with him his club to protect the exalted one from the
malicious attacks of his enemies in the land of spirits. For the same
purpose a bran new and well oiled club is placed in the dead hand of
the chief himself. To return, however, to the dead king of Somosomo
and Mr. Williams’ narrative:
“Leaving the women to adjust the hair of the victims, to oil their
bodies, cover their faces with vermilion, and adorn them with flowers,
I passed on to see the remains of the deceased Tnithaken. To my
astonishment I found him alive. He was weak but quite conscious,
and whenever he coughed placed his hand on his side as though in
pain. Yet his chief wife and a male attendant were covering him with
a thick coat of black powder, and tying round his arms and legs a
number of white scarfs, fastened in rosettes with the long ends
hanging down his sides. His head was turbaned in a scarlet
handkerchief secured by a chaplet of small white cowries, and he
wore armlets of the same shells. On his neck was the ivory necklace
formed in long curved points. To complete his royal attire according
to the Figian idea, he had on a very large new masi, the train being
wrapped in a number of loose folds at his feet. No one seemed to
display real grief, which gave way to show and ceremonies. The
whole tragedy had an air of cruel mockery. It was a masquerading of
grim death—a decking as for a dance bodies which were meant for
the grave.
“I approached the young king whom I could not regard without
abhorrence. He seemed greatly moved and embraced me before I
could speak. ‘See,’ said he, ‘the father of us two is dead! His spirit is
gone. You see his body move, but that it does unconsciously.’”
Knowing that it would be useless to argue the point the missionary
ceased to care about the father, but begged of the young king that
no more victims might be sacrificed, and after some little show of
obstinacy gained his point.
Preparations were then made for conveying the still living man to
the grave. The bodies of the women—the grave grass—were
fastened to mats and carried on biers; they were carried behind the
king, whose stirring body was not brought out at the door of the
house, but the wall being knocked down he was carried through that
way (Mr. Williams is unable to account for this singular proceeding).
The funeral procession moved down to the sea-side and embarked
in a canoe which was silently paddled to the sepulchre of Figian
royalty. Here arrived, the grave was found ready dug, the murdered
grass was packed at the bottom, and after the king’s ornaments
were taken off him he too was lowered into the hole, covered with
cloth and mats and then with earth, and “was heard to cough after a
considerable quantity of soil had been thrown into the grave.”
Although this is an end to the body, many other ceremonies
remain for performance. The most ordinary way to express sorrow
for the dead in Figi is to shave—the process being regulated
according to the affinity of the mourner to deceased. Fathers and
sons will shave their heads and cheeks as bare as pumpkins;
nephews and cousins shave merely the summit of the cranium.
Among the women, however, the mourning customs are much more
horrible and lasting in effect. Some burn fantastic devices on their
bodies with hot irons, while others submit to have their fingers
chopped off. On the occasion of the royal death and burial above
narrated, “orders were issued that one hundred fingers should be cut
off; but only sixty were amputated, one woman losing her life in
consequence. The fingers being each inserted in a slit reed were
stuck along the eaves of the king’s house.”

“Mourning Suit of Leaves.”

Among the various modes of expressing grief among the Figians,
Mr. Williams records that of lying out night after night along the grave
of a friend; allowing the great mop of hair to go untouched for
months; abstinence from oiling the body (a tremendous
mortification); and the wearing garments of leaves instead of cloth.
These practices, however, are optional; others there are that are
imperative, and among them one almost unmentionable from its
loathsome character. The ceremony is called Vathavidiulo, or
“jumping of worms,” and consists of the relatives of deceased
assembling the fourth day after the burial, and minutely discussing
the present condition of the body of the departed. The next night,
however, is not passed in so doleful a manner; for then takes place
the Vakadredre, or “causing to laugh,” when the most uproarious fun
is indulged in for the purpose of enabling the mourners to forget their
grief. On the death of a man high in station, a ludicrous custom is
observed, says Williams:—“About the tenth day, or earlier, the
women arm themselves with cords, switches, and whips, and fall
upon any men below the highest chiefs, plying their whips
unsparingly. I have seen grave personages, not accustomed to move
quickly, flying with all possible speed before a company of such
women. Sometimes the men retaliate by bespattering their
assailants with mud; but they use no violence, as it seems to be a
day on which they are bound to succumb.”
It will be easily understood that since so little respect is paid to the
lives of kings and great warriors, bloodshed and barbarous murder
are rife enough among the poorer classes. And there can be no
doubt that, although the various frightful customs peculiar to the
Figians have their foundation, and are still upheld as a rule in a
purely religious spirit, extensive advantage is taken of the same in
furthering mercenary and spiteful ends. The brother of a dead Figian
of considerable means, might, for instance, find it convenient to
persuade the widows—the heirs to the property—to show their
devotedness by consenting to be strangled and buried with their
husband, that he may, as next of kin, take immediate possession of
the goods and chattels, etc. Where the dead man was poor, his
relatives would probably rather be at the pains to convince the widow
of her duty than at the expense of maintaining her.
The murder of the sick among the Figians is regarded as a simple
and proper course, and one that need not be observed with anything
like secrecy. A fellow missionary of the Rev. Mr. Williams found a
woman in Somosomo who was in a very abject state through the
protracted absence of her husband. For five weeks, although two
women lived in the same house, she lay uncared for, and was
reduced to a mere skeleton, but being provided with food and
medicine from the mission-house, began to get well. One morning,
as an attendant was carrying the sick woman’s breakfast, he was
met and told by her relations that he could take the food back—the
woman was buried. The man then related to the missionaries that
while he was at the sick house the previous day, an old woman
came in, and addressing the patient, said, “I came to see my friend,
and inquire whether she was ready to be strangled yet; but as she is
strong we will let her he a while.” It would seem, however, that in the
course of an hour or so the woman’s barbarous nurses saw fit to
alter their plans.
This is not the only instance of the kind quoted by travellers
familiar with the manners and customs of the Figians. Take the
following:—“Ratu Varam (a chief) spoke of one among many whom
he had caused to be buried alive. She had been weakly for a long
time, and the chief, thinking she was likely to remain so, had a grave
dug. The curiosity of the poor girl was excited by loud exclamations,
as though something extraordinary had happened, and on stepping
out of the house she was seized and thrown into the grave. In vain
she shrieked with horror, and cried out, ‘Do not bury me! I am quite
well now!’ Two men kept her down by standing on her, while others
threw the earth in upon her until she was heard no more.”
If a Figian ceases to exist, towards the evening a sort of wake is
observed. Parties of young men sit and “watch” the body, at the
same time chaunting the most melancholy dirges. Early the next
morning the preparations for the funeral and the funeral feast
commence. Two go to dig the grave, others paint and dress the
body, while others prepare the oven, and attend to culinary matters.
The two grave diggers seated opposite each other make three feints
with their digging sticks, which are then stuck into the earth, and a
grave rarely more than three feet deep is prepared. Either the grave-
diggers or some one near repeat twice the words “Figi Tonga.” The
earth first thrown up is laid apart from the rest. When the grave is
finished mats are laid at the bottom, and the body or bodies,
wrapped in other mats or native cloths, are placed thereon, the
edges of the mats folding over all; the earth is then thrown in. Many
yards of the man’s masi are often left out of the grave and carried in
festoons over the branches of a neighbouring tree. The sextons go
away forthwith and wash themselves, using during their ablution the
leaves of certain shrubs for purification, after which they return and
share the food which has been prepared for them. Mr. Williams
further relates that a respectable burial is invariably provided for the
very poorest of the community, and that he has repeatedly seen poor
wretches unable to procure a decent mat to lie on while alive,
provided with five or six new ones to lie on in the grave. Moreover,
the fact of a person dying far out at sea, or even being killed in battle
with a distant tribe, whose horrid maws have provided him a
sepulchre, does not diminish the responsibility of his relations in the
matter of his funeral obsequies. The koloku, as the after-death
ceremonies are named, takes place just as if the man had died at
home, and the desire to make sacrifice is even more imperative. For
instance, a bold and handsome Figian chief, named Ra Nibittu, was
drowned at sea. As soon as the doleful news reached the land,
seventeen of his wives were straightway strangled, and their bodies
used as grass in a grave dedicated to the dead Ra Nibittu. Again,
after the news of the massacre of the Namena people at Vicca in
1839, eighty women were strangled to accompany the spirits of their
murdered husbands.
In Figi, as in England, the popular superstition concerning the
midnight howling of a dog is prevalent, and thought to betoken
death. A cat purring and rubbing against the legs of a Figian is
regarded just as ominously. If, where a woman is buried, the marks
of cat scratchings are found on the soil, it is thought certain evidence
that while in life the woman was unchaste. Should a warrior fail after
repeated efforts to bring his complexion by aid of various pigments to
the orthodox standard of jetty blackness, he regards himself, and is
regarded by others, as a doomed man, and of course the more he
frets and fumes about the matter, the more he perspires, and the
less chance he has of making the paint stick.
 A proper winding up of this string of curious horrors connected
with Figian death and burial, will be the Figian doctrine of the
universal spread of death, as furnished to Mr. Williams, from whom it
is only justice once more to remark these particulars are chiefly
derived. “When the first man, the father of the human race was being
buried, a god passed by this first grave and enquired what it meant.
On being informed by those standing by that they had just buried
their father, he said, ‘Do not inter him; dig the body up again.’—‘No,’
was the reply, ‘we cannot do that; he has been dead four days, and
is unfit to be seen.’—‘Not so,’ said the god, ‘disinter him, and I
promise you he shall live again.’ Heedless, however, of the promise
of the god, these original sextons persisted in leaving their father’s
remains in the earth. Perceiving their perverseness, the god said, ‘By
refusing compliance with my demands, you have sealed your own
destinies. Had you dug up your ancestor, you would have found him
alive, and yourselves also as you passed from this world, should
have been buried, as bananas are, for the space of four days, after
which you should have been dug up, not rotten, but ripe. But now, as
a punishment for your disobedience, you shall die and rot.’—‘Ah!’
say the Figians, after tearing this legend recounted, ‘Ah! if those
children had dug up that body!’”
On this and many adjacent islands, cutting off a portion of the little
finger as a sacrifice to the gods for the recovery of a superior sick
relation is very commonly done; indeed there is scarcely a person
living at Tonga but who has lost one or both or a considerable portion
of both little fingers. Those who can have but few superior relations,
such as those near akin to Tooitonga, or the king, or Veachi, have
some chance of escaping, if their relations are tolerably healthy. It
does not appear that the operation is painful. Mr. Mariner records
that he has witnessed more than once little children quarrelling for
the honour (or rather out of bravado) of having it done. The finger is
laid flat upon a block of wood, a knife, axe, or sharp stone is placed
with the edge upon the line of the proposed separation, and a
powerful blow given with a mallet or large stone, the operation is
finished. From the nature and violence of the action the wound
seldom bleeds much. The stump is then held in the smoke and
steam arising from the combustion of fresh plucked grass; this stops
any flow of blood. The wound is not washed for two days; afterwards
it is kept clean, and heals in about two or three weeks without any
application whatever. One joint is generally taken off, but some will
have a smaller portion, to admit of the operation being performed
several times on the same finger, in case a man has many superior
relations.
In certain islands of the Polynesian group there was observed at
the approaching dissolution of a man of any importance a rite terribly
fantastic and cruel. As soon as the dying man’s relatives were made
acquainted with the impending calamity, they straightway and
deliberately proceeded to act the part of raving mad men. “Not only,”
says Ellis, “did they wail in the loudest and most affecting manner,
but they tore their hair, rent their garments, and cut themselves with
knives or with shark’s teeth in the most shocking manner. The
instrument usually employed was a small cane about four inches
long, with five or six shark’s teeth fixed in on opposite sides. With
one of these instruments every female provided herself after
marriage, and on occasions of death it was unsparingly used.
“With some this was not sufficient: they prepared a sharp
instrument, something like a plumber’s mallet, about five or six
inches long, rounded at one end for a handle, and armed with two or
three rows of shark’s teeth fixed in the wood at the other. With this,
on the death of a relative or friend, they cut themselves unmercifully,
striking the head, temples, cheeks, and breast, till the blood flowed
profusely from the wounds. At the same time they uttered the most
deafening and agonizing cries; and the distortion of their
countenances, their torn and dishevelled air, the mingled tears and
blood that covered their bodies, their wild gestures and unruly
conduct, often gave them a frightful and almost inhuman
appearance. I have often conversed with these people on their
reasons for this strange procedure, and have asked them if it was
not exceeding painful to cut themselves as they were accustomed to
do. They have always answered that it was very painful in some
parts of the face, that the upper lip or the space between the upper
lip and the nostrils was the most tender, and a stroke there was
always attended with the greatest pain.... The females on these
occasions sometimes put on a kind of short apron of a particular sort
of cloth, which they held up with one hand, while they cut themselves
with the other. In this apron they caught the blood that flowed from
these grief-inflicted wounds until it was almost saturated. It was then
dried in the sun and given to the nearest surviving relations, as a
proof of the affection of the donor, and was preserved by the
bereaved family as a token of the estimation in which the departed
had been held.
“I am not prepared to say that the same enormities were practised
here as in the Sandwich Islands at these times, but on the death of a
king or principal chief, the scenes exhibited in and around the house
were in appearance demoniacal. The relatives and members of the
household began; the other chiefs of the island and their relatives
came to sympathize with the survivors, and on reaching the place
joined in the infuriated conduct of the bereaved. The tenantry of the
chiefs came also, and giving themselves to all the savage infatuation
which the conduct of their associates, or the influence of their
superstitious belief inspired, they not only tore their hair and
lacerated their bodies till they were covered with blood, but often
fought with clubs and stones till murder followed.”
As soon as an individual of the islands above alluded to died, a
ceremony known as “tahna tertera” was performed, with a view of
discovering the cause of death. In order to effect this the priest took
his canoe, and paddled slowly along on the sea near the house
where the body was lying, to watch the passage of the spirit, which
they supposed would fly upon him with the emblem of the cause for
which the person died. If he had been cursed by the gods, the spirit
would appear with a flame, fire being the agent employed in the
incantations of the sorcerers; if killed by the bribe of some enemy
given to the gods, the spirit would appear with a red feather, an
emblem signifying that evil spirits had entered his food. After a short
time the tahna or priest returned to the house of the deceased, and
told the survivors the cause of his death, and received his fee, the
amount of which was regulated by the circumstances of the parties.
To avert mischief from the dead man’s relations, the priest now
performed certain secret ceremonies, and in a day or two he again
made his appearance with a cheerful countenance, to assure them
that they need no longer go in fear, received another fee, and took
his departure.
The bodies of the chiefs and persons of rank and affluence were
embalmed. The art of embalming, generally thought to indicate a
high degree of civilization, appears to have been known and
practised among the Polynesians from a very remote period, and
however simple the process, it was thoroughly successful. The
intestines, brain, etc., were removed, and the body fixed in a sitting
posture, and exposed to the direct rays of the sun. The inside was,
after a while, filled with shreds of native cloth, saturated with
perfumed oil, with which the exterior was plentifully and vigorously
anointed. This, together with the heat of the sun and the dryness of
the atmosphere, favoured the preservation of the body.
Under the influence of these causes, in the course of a few weeks
the muscles were dried up, and the whole body appeared as if
covered with a kind of parchment. It was then clothed, and fixed in a
sitting posture; a small altar was erected before it, and offerings of
fruit, food, and flowers daily presented by the relatives or the priest
appointed to attend the body. In this state it was kept many months,
when the body was buried, and the skull preserved by the family.
In commencing the process of embalming, and placing the body
on the bier, another priest was employed, who was called the tahna
lure tiapapau, or “corpse-praying priest.” His office was singular.
When the house for the dead had been erected, and the corpse
placed upon the bier, the priest ordered a hole to be dug near the
foot of it. Over this hole the priest prayed to the god by whom it was
supposed the spirit of the deceased had been required. The purport
of his prayer was, that all the dead man’s sins, and especially that for
which his soul had been called away, might be deposited there; that
they might not attach in any degree to the survivors; and that the
anger of the god might be appeased. After the prayer, the priest,
addressing the deceased, exclaimed, “With you let the guilt now
remain.” Then a pillar of wood was planted in the “sin-hole,” and the
earth filled in. Then the priest, taking a number of small slips of
plantain leaf-stalk, approached the body, and laid some under the
arms, and strewed some on the breast, saying, “There are your
family; there are your children, there is your wife, there is your father,
and there is your mother. Be contented in the world of spirits. Look
not towards those you have left in the world.” And—or so thought the
benighted creatures among whom this singular rite was performed—
the dead man’s spirit being hoodwinked into the belief that the chief
of his relations were no longer inhabitants of the world, ceased to
trouble itself further about mundane affairs, and never appeared in
ghostly shape at the midnight couches of living men.
All who were employed in the embalming, which was called muri,
were during the process carefully avoided by every person, as the
guilt of the crime for which the deceased had died was supposed in
some degree to attach to such as touched the body. They did not
feed themselves, lest the food defiled by the touch of their polluted
hands should cause their death, but were fed by others. As soon as
the ceremony of depositing the sin in the hole was over, all who had
touched the dead man or his garments fled precipitately into the sea,
where for a long time they bathed, and came away leaving their
contaminated clothes behind them. At the conclusion of their
ablutions they dived, and brought from the sea-bed some bits of
coral. Bearing these in their hands, their first journey was to the sin-
hole of the defunct, at which the bits of coral were cast, with the
adjuration, “With you may all pollution be!”
On the death of Finow, King of Tonga, Mr. Mariner informs us, the
chiefs and grand company invited to take part in his funeral
obsequies, seated themselves, habited in mats, waiting for the body
of the deceased king to be brought forth. The mourners (who are
always women), consisting of the female relations, widows,
mistresses, and servants of the deceased, and such other females of
some rank who chose out of respect to officiate on such an
occasion, were assembled in the house and seated round the
corpse, which still lay out on the blades of gnatoo. They were all
habited in large old ragged mats—the more ragged the more fit for
the occasion, as being more emblematical of a spirit broken down,
or, as it were, torn to pieces by grief. Their appearance was
calculated to excite pity and sorrow in the heart of anyone, whether