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A HISTORY OF BRITAIN
JEREMY BLACK
iupress.indiana.edu
No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means,
electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or by any
information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the
publisher.
The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of the
American National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for
Printed Library Materials, ANSI Z39.48–1992.
Abbreviations
3. Changing Society
4. Changing Culture
7. Thatcherism, 1979–90
12. Conclusions
Notes
Index
PREFACE
EU European Union
UK United Kingdom
A HISTORY OF BRITAIN
POPULATION
IN WRITING ON Britain in the late twentieth century and to the
present, the theme of the environment under strain principally
referred, for much of the public, to “green” issues. This assessment
reflected the extent to which these issues, and the related attitudes,
both of which had developed from the 1960s, had been diffused
more widely into the political community. In contrast, by the mid-
2010s, there was, for many, a more specific and pointed concern,
that of people, and more particularly their number. This concern
related to anxieties about the consequences of both large-scale
immigration and population aging due to higher life expectancy and,
linked to that, of a future acceleration in the already-pronounced rise
in population, with all the consequences that brought or allegedly
brought or might bring, categories that people were often slipshod
about in their comments. The population of the United Kingdom
(UK) rose from 50.2 million in 1945 to 68.14 million by July 2023,
and such figures were regarded as reasonably accurate and, if
anything, as an underestimate.
Trends and projections indicate a continuation of the present
direction of change. The population of England and Wales on Census
Day, March 21, 2021, was 59.6 million, an increase of 6.3 percent
since 2011 when it was 56.1 million. The population grew in each of
the nine regions of England and also in Wales. Scotland’s population
as estimated to be 5.5 million in mid-June 2021, reflecting an
increase of 8.2 percent from mid-2001. Immigration in the shape of
net migration was a key element in the population of England and
Wales, with the migrant share of the population rising from 8.9
percent (2001) to 13.4 percent (2011) and 16.8 percent (2021), the
last 1 in 6 of the population, about 10 million in total. This is a larger
growth than that due to natural change, the difference between
births and deaths. Immigration is also a crucial factor in natural
change, as women born overseas, but giving birth after migrating,
had higher birth rates than women born in Britain. This trend is likely
to continue.
Alongside birth rates and immigration, an aging population, due
to higher life expectancy, is a key factor in the rise of the UK
population. Indeed, over-65s are expected to be the fastest growing
age group in all regions, with increases of more than 20 percent in
most areas. Moreover, the number of local authority areas in which
more than a quarter of residents are over sixty-five is expected to
triple—from 28 to 84—between 2014 and 2024, with West Somerset
having 36.5 percent of residents in that category, followed by North
Norfolk, another predominantly rural area, with 34.6 percent, and
the number of people in England over the age of ninety passing five
hundred thousand in 2017, and reaching one million by 2034. In the
2021 census, North Norfolk had a median age of 54, Rother of 53,
and East Lindsey of 52. The English region with the highest median
age was the South West at 44, whereas London had the youngest,
at 35. The youngest borough there was Tower Hamlets, a center of
immigration, at 30. Other cities had low figures, notably Manchester
and Nottingham at 31.
Regional differences in population figures and trends are
projected by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to be
pronounced, with growth in Britain strongest in the South and East
of England. The local authority with the highest increase in residents
born outside the UK was the London borough of Barking and
Dagenham, where the percentage rose from 31 to 41 in 2021, while
the highest growth in EU nationals in 2011–21 was in Boston in
Lincolnshire, which also provided the highest leave vote in the 2016
Brexit referendum. EU-born residents in 2011 were 2.5 million, and
in 2021 3.6 million.
The 2020–21 COVID pandemic affected detailed local figures in
that period, not least with movement out of London. Nevertheless,
many earlier trends continued. Thus, some areas in northern
England saw falls in population. Moreover, Scotland continues to not
have growth rates to match those of England, in part due to much
less immigration, both current and historic, and also to considerable
recent emigration, both to England and abroad. The October 2016
ONS figures suggested that of the eleven largest city regions,
London had the largest percentage growth in 2011–15, followed by
Bristol, the West Midlands, and Greater Manchester, in that order,
with Glasgow, at 1 percent, having the lowest rate of growth,
followed by Liverpool at 1.2 percent.
A plethora of figures may confuse or, indeed, become tedious.
The overall impression, however, is clear, and the figures tend to
provide different aspects of it, as well as to help explain aspects of
the situation and the trend. Moreover, looking at the figures in detail
highlights important chronological and regional variations and
reveals their significance. There is no sign that this situation will
change. In addition, population trends provide a key product of, and
focus for, developments across a range of spheres, including,
crucially, economic shifts, migration, and social welfare policies. The
implications of population changes for land use, resource pressures,
housing, transport, and public services, notably education, health,
and social care, are immense. At the same time, population is a key
—arguably, the most significant—source of pressure on the
environment.
NIMBYISM
Each interpretation of environmental crisis, and every discussion of
future trends, focused wider issues, but also reflected the sense that
Britain itself was under pressure. In reality, that has always been the
case. Britain has been an inhabited landscape for thousands of years
and, throughout that period, has been affected by major changes in
land use, as well as by successive waves of immigration. It would be
extraordinary if these processes should cease, although population
growth at a great rate nearly stopped in the 1970s and 1980s,
before immigration took off again in the years of Tony Blair’s prime
ministership (1997–2007). Nevertheless, the often vociferous
aspiration for continuity and for opposition to change, on the part of
many, generally tells us more about (some) attitudes than about
practicalities. This aspiration is particularly expressed in terms of
“nimbyism,” or “not in my backyard,” an opposition to development
in the particular areas of those concerned.
The charge of nimbyism was regularly thrown at those who
opposed change and usually in order to claim or suggest that they
were privileged and selfish people who were unwilling to share the
fruits of their privilege. This charge had a basis in fact and notably
so in terms of opposition to new housing in rural areas or to “social
housing” (housing for the poor) in affluent urban neighborhoods and
also, starting in the mid-2010s, to fracking for natural gas. Strong
opposition to the expansion of Heathrow Airport starting in the
2010s, especially in West London, was seen in these terms by critics.
Thus, nimbyism served a critical agenda suggesting that hostility
to development represented class interest. This agenda was
particularly present in the 1960s and 1980s as, respectively, Labour
and Conservative governments sought to push through change. It
was also more generally the case as far as local government was
concerned and, notably, its often pronounced hostility to interests
and views that opposed its development plans. An aspect of
nimbyism was provided by what David Willetts, a modernizing, “one
nation,” Conservative minister in the early 2010s, referred to as
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Fir Trees at Braemar
crops in low-lying fields. Some parts of Donside scenery, notably at
Monymusk (called Paradise), and at Seaton House just below the
Cathedral of Old Aberdeen, and before the river passes through the
single Gothic arch of the ancient and historical bridge of Balgownie,
are very fine—wooded and picturesque, and beloved of more than
one famous artist.
The next river is the Ythan, which, rising in the low hills of the
Culsalmond district and flowing through the parish of Auchterless
and past the charming hamlet of Fyvie, creeps somewhat sluggishly
through Methlick and Lord Aberdeen’s estates to Ellon. A few miles
below Ellon it forms a large tidal estuary four miles in length—a
notable haunt of sea-trout, the most notable on the east coast. The
river is only 37 miles long. It is slow and winding with deep pools and
few rushing streams; moreover its waters have never the clear,
sparkling quality of the silvery Dee. Yet at Fyvie and at Gight it has
picturesque reaches that redeem it from a uniformity of tameness.
The Ugie, a small stream of 20 miles in length, is the only other river
worthy of mention. It joins the sea north of the town of Peterhead. In
character it closely resembles the Ythan, having the same kind of
deep pools and the same sedge-grown banks.
The Deveron is more particularly a Banffshire river, yet in the Huntly
district, it and its important tributary the Bogie (which gives its name
to the well-known historic region called Strathbogie) are wholly in
Aberdeenshire.