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Essential Statistics for Data Science
Essential Statistics for
Data Science
A Concise Crash Course

MU Z H U
Professor, University of Waterloo
 Great Clarendon Street, Oxford, OX2 6DP,
United Kingdom
Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford.
It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship,
and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of
Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries
© Mu Zhu 2023
The moral rights of the author have been asserted
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in
a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the
prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted
by law, by licence or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics
rights organization. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the
above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the
address above
You must not circulate this work in any other form
and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer
Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press
198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Data available
Library of Congress Control Number: 2023931557
ISBN 978–0–19–286773–5
ISBN 978–0–19–286774–2 (pbk.)
DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780192867735.001.0001
Printed and bound by
CPI Group (UK) Ltd, Croydon, CR0 4YY
Links to third party websites are provided by Oxford in good faith and
for information only. Oxford disclaims any responsibility for the materials
contained in any third party website referenced in this work.
To Everest and Mariana
 Contents

Prologue x

PA RT I . TA L K I N G PR O B A BI LI T Y

1. Eminence of Models 3
Appendix 1.A For brave eyes only 10
2. Building Vocabulary 12
2.1 Probability 12
2.1.1 Basic rules 13
2.2 Conditional probability 14
2.2.1 Independence 14
2.2.2 Law of total probability 16
2.2.3 Bayes law 18
2.3 Random variables 20
2.3.1 Summation and integration 21
2.3.2 Expectations and variances 23
2.3.3 Two simple distributions 24
2.4 The bell curve 27
3. Gaining Fluency 30
3.1 Multiple random quantities 30
3.1.1 Higher-dimensional problems 36
3.2 Two “hard” problems 37
3.2.1 Functions of random variables 38
3.2.2 Compound distributions 43
Appendix 3.A Sums of independent random variables 46
3.A.1 Convolutions 46
3.A.2 Moment-generating functions 47
3.A.3 Formulae for expectations and variances 51

PA RT I I . D O I N G STAT IST I C S

4. Overview of Statistics 55
4.1 Frequentist approach 56
4.1.1 Functions of random variables 56
4.2 Bayesian approach 58
4.2.1 Compound distributions 58
viii CONTENTS

4.3 Two more distributions 59

4.3.1 Poisson distribution 59
4.3.2 Gamma distribution 61
Appendix 4.A Expectation and variance of the Poisson 63
Appendix 4.B Waiting time in Poisson process 65
5. Frequentist Approach 67
5.1 Maximum likelihood estimation 67
5.1.1 Random variables that are i.i.d. 69
5.1.2 Problems with covariates 72
5.2 Statistical properties of estimators 75
5.3 Some advanced techniques 79
5.3.1 EM algorithm 81
5.3.2 Latent variables 86
Appendix 5.A Finite mixture models 87
6. Bayesian Approach 93
6.1 Basics 93
6.2 Empirical Bayes 96
6.3 Hierarchical Bayes 100
Appendix 6.A General sampling algorithms 107
6.A.1 Metropolis algorithm 107
6.A.2 Some theory 108
6.A.3 Metropolis–Hastings algorithm 111

PA RT I I I . FA C I N G UN C ERTA I N T Y

7. Interval Estimation 115

7.1 Uncertainty quantification 117
7.1.1 Bayesian version 117
7.1.2 Frequentist version 118
7.2 Main difficulty 119
7.3 Two useful methods 122
7.3.1 Likelihood ratio 123
7.3.2 Bootstrap 129
8. Tests of Significance 133
8.1 Basics 134
8.1.1 Relation to interval estimation 135
8.1.2 The p-value 137
8.2 Some challenges 139
8.2.1 Multiple testing 139
8.2.2 Six degrees of separation 142
Appendix 8.A Intuition of Benjamini-Hockberg 147
 CONTENTS ix

PA RT I V. A PPEN D I X

Appendix: Some Further Topics 151

A.1 Graphical models 151
A.2 Regression models 152
A.3 Data collection 153

Epilogue 157
Bibliography 158
Index 159
 Prologue

When my university first launched a master’s program in data science a few

years ago, I was given the task of teaching a crash course on statistics for
incoming students who have not had much exposure to the subject at the
undergraduate level—for example, those who majored in Computer Science
or Software Engineering but didn’t take any serious course in statistics.
Our Department of Statistics formed a committee, which fiercely debated
what materials should go into such a course. (Of course, I should mention
that our Department of Computer Science was asked to create a similar crash
course for incoming students who did not major in Computer Science, and
they had almost exactly the same heated debate.) In the end, a consensus was
reached that the statistics crash course should essentially be “five undergrad-
uate courses in one”, taught in one semester at a mathematical level that is
suitable for master’s students in a quantitative discipline.
At most universities, these five undergraduate courses would typically carry
the following titles: (i) Probability, (ii) Mathematical Statistics, (iii) Regres-
sion, (iv) Sampling, and (v) Experimental Design. This meant that I must
somehow think of a way to teach the first two courses—a year-long sequence
at most universities—in just about half a semester, and at a respectable math-
ematical level too. This book is my personal answer to this challenge. (While
compressing the other three courses was challenging as well, it was much more
straightforward in comparison and I did not have to struggle nearly as much.)
One may ask why we must insist on “a respectable mathematical level”. This
is because our goal is not merely to teach students some statistics; it is also
to warm them up for other graduate-level courses at the same time. Therefore,
readers best served by this book are precisely those who not only want to learn
some essential statistics very quickly but also would like to continue reading
relatively advanced materials that require a decent understanding and appreci-
ation of statistics—including some conference papers in artificial intelligence
and machine learning, for instance.
I will now briefly describe some main features of this book. Despite the light-
ning pace and the introductory nature of the text, a very deliberate attempt
is still made to ensure that three very important computational techniques—
namely, the EM algorithm, the Gibbs sampler, and the bootstrap—are intro-
duced. Traditionally, these topics are almost never introduced to students
 PROLOGUE xi

“immediately” but, for students of data science, there are strong reasons why
they should be. If the process of writing this book has been a quest, then it is
not an exaggeration for me to say that this particular goal has been its Holy
Grail.
To achieve this goal, a great deal of care is taken so as not to overwhelm
students with special mathematical “tricks” that are often needed to handle dif-
ferent probability distributions. For example, Part I, Talking Probability, uses
only three distributions—specifically, the Binomial distribution, the uniform
distribution on (0, 1), and the normal distribution—to explain all the essential
concepts of probability that students will need to know in order to con-
tinue with the rest of the book. When introducing multivariate distributions,
only their corresponding extensions are used, for example, the multinomial
distribution and the multivariate normal distribution.
Then, two much deliberated sets of running examples—specifically, (i)
Examples 5.2, 5.4, 5.5, + 5.6 and (ii) Examples 6.2 + 6.3—are crafted in Part
II, Doing Statistics, which naturally lead students to the EM algorithm and the
Gibbs sampler, both in rapid progression and with minimal hustle and bus-
tle. These running examples also use only two distributions—in particular, the
Poisson distribution, and the Gamma distribution—to “get the job done”.
Overall, precedence is given to estimating model parameters in the fre-
quentist approach and finding their posterior distribution in the Bayesian
approach, before more intricate statistical questions—such as quantifying how
much uncertainty we have about a parameter and testing whether the param-
eters satisfy a given hypothesis—are then addressed separately in Part III,
Facing Uncertainty. It’s not hard for students to appreciate why we must always
try to say something first about the unknown parameters of the probability
model—either what their values might be if they are treated as fixed or what
their joint distribution might look like if they are treated as random; how else
can the model be useful to us otherwise?! Questions about uncertainty and
statistical significance, on the other hand, are much more subtle. Not only are
these questions relatively uncommon for very complex models such as a deep
neural network, whose millions of parameters really have no intrinsic mean-
ing to warrant a significance test, but they also require a unique conceptual
infrastructure with its own idiosyncratic jargon (e.g. the p-value).
Finally, some mathematical facts (e.g. Cauchy–Schwarz), stand-alone classic
results (e.g. James–Stein), and materials that may be skipped on first reading
(e.g. Metropolis–Hastings) are presented through “mathematical inserts”, “fun
boxes”, and end-of-chapter appendices so as to reduce unnecessary disruptions
to the flow of main ideas.
 PART I
TA LK ING PROB A BILIT Y

Synopsis: The statistical approach to analyzing data begins with a probability

model to describe the data-generating process; that’s why, to study statistics,
one must first learn to speak the language of probability.
 1
Eminence of Models

The very first point to make when we study statistics is to explain why the
language of probability is so heavily used.
Everybody knows that statistics is about analyzing data. But we are inter-
ested in more than just the data themselves; we are actually interested in the
hidden processes that produce, or generate, the data because only by under-
standing the data-generating processes can we start to discover patterns and
make predictions. For example, there are data on past presidential elections
in the United States, but it is not too useful if we simply go about describing
matter-of-factly that only 19.46% of voters in County H voted for Democratic
candidates during the past two decades, and so on. It will be much more use-
ful if we can figure out a generalizable pattern from these data; for example,
people with certain characteristics tend to vote in a certain way. Then, we can
use these patterns to predict how people will vote in the next election.
These data-generating processes are described by probability models for
many reasons. For example, prior to having seen the data, we have no idea
what the data will look like, so the data-generating process appears stochas-
tic from our point of view. Moreover, we anticipate that the data we acquire
will inevitably have some variations in them—for example, even people who
share many characteristics (age, sex, income, race, profession, hobby, residen-
tial neighborhood, and whatnot) will not all vote in exactly the same way—and
probability models are well equipped to deal with variations of this sort.
Thus, probability models are chosen to describe the underlying data gener-
ating process, and much of statistics is about what we can say about the process
itself based on what comes out of it.
At the frontier of statistics, data science, or machine learning, the probabil-
ity models used to describe the data-generating process can be pretty complex.
Most of those which we will encounter in this book will, of course, be much
simpler. However, whether the models are complex or simple, this particu-
lar characterization of what statistics is about is very important and also why,
in order to study statistics at any reasonable depth, it is necessary to become
reasonably proficient in the language of probability.

Essential Statistics for Data Science. Mu Zhu, Oxford University Press. © Mu Zhu (2023).
DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780192867735.003.0001
4 EMINENCE OF MODELS

Example 1.1. Imagine a big crowd of n people. For any two individuals, say,
i and j, we know whether they are friends (xi j = 1) or not (xi j = 0). It is natural
to believe that these people would form, or belong to, different communities.
For instance, some of them may be friends because they play recreational soc-
cer in the same league, others may be friends because they graduated from the
same high school, and so on.
How would we identify these hidden communities? One way to do so would
be to postulate that these friendship data, X = {xi j : 1 ≤ i, j ≤ n}, have been
generated by a probability model, such as
xi j 1–xi j
(X |Z) = ∏ ( pzi z j ) (1 – pzi z j ) , (1.1)
i, j

where Z = {zi : 1 ≤ i ≤ n} and each zi ∈ {1, 2, . . . , K} is a label indicating

which of the K communities individual i belongs to.¹
Model (1.1) is known as a “stochastic block model” or SBM for short [1, 2, 3].
It states that, independently of other friendships, the probability, pzi z j , that
two individuals i and j will become friends (xi j = 1) depends only on their
respective community memberships, zi and z j . [Note: The model also states
the probability that they will not become friends (xi j = 0) is equal to 1 – pzi z j .]
Table 1.1 shows a hypothetical example. In a small town with its own recre-
ational soccer league and just one local high school, individuals who belong to
both communities are highly likely to become friends, with 90% probability.
Those who play in the soccer league but didn’t go to the local high school are
also quite likely to become friends, with 75% probability. But for those who
don’t belong to either community, the chance of them becoming friends with
one another is fairly low, with just 1% probability. And so on.
In reality, only some quantities in the model (i.e. xi j ) are observable, while
others (i.e. zi , z j , pzi z j ) are unobservable; see Table 1.2. The unobservable
quantities must be estimated from the observable ones, and much of statistics
is about how this should be done.
In this particular case, a natural way to proceed would be to use an iterative
algorithm, alternating between the estimation of {zi : 1 ≤ i ≤ n}, given { pkℓ :
1 ≤ k, ℓ ≤ K}, and vice versa. Once estimated, some of these unobservable

¹ Since, at this point, we haven’t yet delved into anything formally, including the notion of probabil-
ity distributions itself, we simply use the non-standard notation “” here to denote the vague idea of
“a model”. The notation “X |Z” actually conforms to the standard conditional notation in probability;
here, it simply means that, while both X and Z are quantities that should be described by a prob-
abilistic generating mechanism, this particular model describes only the probability mechanism of
X , pretending that Z has been fixed. We will come back to this type of model at the end of Chapter 5.
 EMINENCE OF MODELS 5

Table 1.1 An illustrative example of the SBM [Model (1.1)]

zj = 1 zj = 2 zj = 3 zj = 4
(Both) (Soccer league) (High school) (Neither)

zi = 1 (Both) 0.90 0.80 0.20 0.05

zi = 2 (Soccer league) – 0.75 0.10 0.03
zi = 3 (High school) – – 0.30 0.02
zi = 4 (Neither) – – – 0.01

Values of pzi z j for zi , z j ∈ {1, 2, 3, 4}. Symmetric entries (e.g. p21 = p12 = 0.80) are omitted
for better visual clarity.
Source: authors.

Table 1.2 Observable and unobservable quantities in the SBM [Model

(1.1)] and the ct-SBM [Model (1.2)]

SBM [Model (1.1)] ct-SBM [Model (1.2)]

Observables {xi j : 1 ≤ i, j ≤ n} {ti jh : 1 ≤ i, j ≤ n; h = 1, 2, . . . , mi j }

Unobservables {zi : 1 ≤ i ≤ n} {zi : 1 ≤ i ≤ n}
{ pkℓ : 1 ≤ k, ℓ ≤ K}† {ρkℓ (t) : 1 ≤ k, ℓ ≤ K}†

Note: † In fact, the total number of communities, K, is typically also unobservable but,
here, we are taking a somewhat simplified perspective by assuming that it is known a
priori.
Source: authors.

quantities—specifically, the estimated labels, {̂zi : 1 ≤ i ≤ n}—can then be

used to identify the hidden communities. □

Example 1.2. Now imagine that, instead of knowing explicitly whether peo-
ple are friends or not, we have a record of when they communicated with (e.g.
emailed or telephoned) each other. Table 1.3 shows an example. On Novem-
ber 7, 2016, Amy emailed Bob shortly before midnight, probably to alert him
of the imminent election of Donald Trump as the forty-fifth President of the
United States; Bob emailed her back early next morning; and so on.
Similarly, one can postulate that these communication data have been
generated by a probability model, such as
mi j
– ∫tt∞ ρzi zj (u)du
(T|Z) = ∏ {[e 0 ] × ∏ ρzi zj (ti jh )} , (1.2)
i, j h=1
6 EMINENCE OF MODELS

Table 1.3 An illustrative example of

communication records

From (i) To ( j) Time (t)

1 (Amy) 2 (Bob) November 7, 2016, 23:42

2 (Bob) 1 (Amy) November 8, 2016, 07:11
2 (Bob) 4 (Dan) November 8, 2016, 07:37
⋮ ⋮ ⋮

Source: authors.

where T = {ti jh : 1 ≤ i, j ≤ n; h = 1, 2, . . . , mi j }, ti jh ∈ (t0 , t∞ ) is the time

of h-th communication between i and j, and mi j equals the total number of
communications between i and j.²
Model (1.2) is an extension of (1.1), called a “continuous-time stochas-
tic block model” or ct-SBM for short [4]. It states that, independently of
communications between others, the arrival times, {ti jh : h = 1, 2, . . . , mi j },
of communications between two individuals i and j are generated by a
so-called “non-homogeneous Poisson process” with a rate function, ρzi z j (t),
that depends only on their respective community memberships, zi and zj . The
“non-homogeneous Poisson process”—what appears inside the curly brackets
in Equation (1.2)—is a relatively advanced probability model and very much
beyond the scope of this book; curious readers who desire a better understand-
ing of this expression can read Appendix 1.A at the end of this chapter at their
own risk.
Nevertheless, the parallelism with Example 1.1 is clear enough. Only some
quantities (i.e. ti jh now instead of xi j ) are observable, while others (i.e. zi , zj
as before but ρzi zj now instead of pzi zj ) are unobservable; again, see Table 1.2.
The unobservable quantities must be estimated from the observable ones.
Here, each ρzi z j is an entire function (of time), so the estimation problem for
the ct-SBM [Equation (1.2)] is a lot harder than it is for the “vanilla” SBM
[Equation (1.1)], in which each pzi zj is simply a scalar. □

Example 1.3. Interestingly, model (1.2) can be extended and adapted to ana-
lyze basketball games. Table 1.4 shows two plays between the Boston Celtics
and the Miami Heat that took place in the 2012 NBA Eastern Conference
finals, by tracking the movement of the ball from the start of each play to the

² The notations “t0 ” and “t∞ ” are used here simply to mean the beginning and end of a time period
over which communication patterns are being studied, for example, t0 = 00:00 and t∞ = 23:59.
 EMINENCE OF MODELS 7

Table 1.4 Two plays between the Boston Celtics

and the Miami Heat that took place in the 2012
NBA Eastern Conference finals

From (i) To (j) Time (t, in seconds)

Inbound C#9 0
C#9 C#5 11
C#5 Miss 2† 12
Rebound H#6 0
H#6 H#3 7
H#3 H#15 8
H#15 H#3 9
H#3 H#6 12
H#6 Miss 3† 17

Note: C = Boston Celtics; H = Miami Heat. † Missing a

two-point (or three-point) shot.

end. It is easily seen that, by and large, these data have the same structure as the
communication data displayed in Table 1.3—except that each play necessarily
begins from a special state (e.g. inbound, rebound) and ends in a special
state (e.g. miss 2, miss 3) as well. As such, the model must be extended
to deal with these transitions between special states and players.
Another much more subtle, but highly critical, adaptation to the model is
also necessary before the model can properly handle basketball games. For
example, if LeBron James is not in possession of the ball, the fact that he didn’t
make a pass at a particular point of time—say, t0 ∈ (0, 24) seconds—does not
contain any information about the underlying rate function at t0 ; whereas, the
fact that Amy didn’t send any email at a certain time t0 —say, midnight—still
contains information about the underlying rate function at t0 . The adaptations
needed to accommodate subtle differences like these are fairly intricate; for
details, see Xin et al. [4].
With various extensions and adaptations of this kind, we analyzed two
games (Game 1 and Game 5) from the 2012 NBA Eastern Conference finals
between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics, as well as two games (Game 2
and Game 5) from the 2015 NBA finals between the Cleveland Cavaliers
and the Golden State Warriors. For these analyses, we also simplified the rate
function ρkℓ (t) by reparameterizing it to be:

ρkℓ (t) = λk (t) × pkℓ

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much travel in the Cossack country and intimate knowledge of the
sources of Cossack history have equipped him for the task of
interpreting this interesting people to his own countrymen.”—R of Rs

Ath p560 Ap 23 ’20 100w

Booklist 16:273 My ’20

“Students of Russia will appreciate Captain Cresson’s volume,

because it is, so far, our most reliable account of the Cossacks in
English. He has brought within its pages information that hitherto
was scattered and difficult to collate, and he has shown, in its
presentation, a scholarly viewpoint and a ready pen.”

+ Cath World 111:542 Jl ’20 700w

“The book is not to be taken too seriously as a contribution to

historical literature, but vivacity of style and the wild-western colour
of the subject-matter make the pages interesting enough.”

+ − Dial 68:671 My ’20 50w

“Captain Cresson’s work rests on the standard researches of

French historians and the general reader can peruse it with
confidence as well as with interest.”

+ Ind 103:321 S 11 ’20 360w

Lit D p86 Je 26 ’20 1250w
+ Outlook 124:657 Ap 14 ’20 40w

“The most valuable part of his book is that in which, from personal
observation, he describes the organization and government of the
Cossacks. This otherwise excellent book has one shortcoming, and
that is faulty transliteration of Russian names.”

+ − Review 3:712 Jl 7 ’20 260w

R of Rs 61:335 Mr ’20 100w

Reviewed by Reed Lewis

+ Survey 44:52 Ap 3 ’20 160w

CROCKETT, ALBERT STEVENS. Revelations

of Louise. il *$2.75 (6½c) Stokes 134
 20–19174

The book records the circumstances of the loss of a beloved

daughter and of the parents’ communications with her from the
spirit world. Previous to the occurrences described, the author
avows, he had been a decided skeptic on the subject of spirits. The
communications came by way of the ouija board, table tippings,
levitations and materializations, all through non-professional means.
Long conversations with Louise are recorded. Among the contents
are: Through the board; Spirit dogs, and another: The festival of
spirits—writing; The table that talked; On guides and “power”;
Manifestations; Good spirits and bad—the chart; How levitation is
done; Spirit audiences and performers; Spirits and human nature;
The seven spirit planes—and some ancient American history;
Levitation extraordinary.

“The chief interest of the book lies in the detail and accuracy of Mr
Crockett’s observations, and what new evidence he can bring to the
case.”

+ Boston Transcript p5 N 13 ’20 660w

“The book has an interest wholly apart from the question of

possible dealings with the world beyond, in that it presents a vivid
picture of a charming and lovable girl, who is sweet and natural and
unchanged on either side of the veil.”

+ N Y Evening Post p11 N 6 ’20 150w

N Y Times p16 N 14 ’20 540w

Reviewed by Booth Tarkington

 + N Y Times p18 N 28 ’20 420w

“Quite aside from the personal matters there are descriptions of

the life in the ethereal realm that, to say the least, must commend
themselves to those who have already acquired some conceptions of
the next phase of life.”

+ Springf’d Republican p7a N 28 ’20

360w

CROCKETT, SAMUEL RUTHERFORD. Light

out of the east. *$1.90 (2½c) Doran

20–22156

This is not a story of the return of Christ to earth, but it is the story
of a Christ-like figure who remakes the world on the basis of Jesus’
teachings. He is known as the White Pope, for altho only a poor
monk, Brother Christopher had been elevated to the Vatican. To the
horror of all, however, he had forsaken the papal throne to wander
about the earth teaching that God is to be found only in men’s hearts.
So Lucas Cargill of Cargillfield, Scotland, meets him and becomes his
first disciple and recorder of the events that follow. In several
respects the narrative parallels the life of Jesus.

“Nothing in ‘The light out of the east’ is probable or even possible,

and in addition to its manifest exaggeration, the religious element is
lugged in. This hardly makes an artistic book; in fact, it does not even
make a moderately good story.”
 − Boston Transcript p6 Ag 7 ’20 200w

“Beyond the statement that this book has an effective style, there is
little to be said about it. The book is a thinly-veiled attack upon the
Catholic church.”

− Cath World 112:270 N ’20 150w

N Y Times 25:320 Je 20 ’20 520w

“It is a message of idealism beautifully conceived and filled with

optimism for the world’s future.”

+ Outlook 126:507 Jl 14 ’20 20w

“This book will stir wonder and regret in those who remember and
still admire Mr Crockett’s earlier novels.”

− The Times [London] Lit Sup p142 F 26

’20 280w

CROMWELL, GLADYS. Poems. *$1.50

Macmillan 811

19–19249

“Another book that is in the nature of a memorial volume, since it

is posthumous, is ‘Poems,’ by Gladys Cromwell. In a preface Padraic
Colum gives a just and accurate account of Miss Cromwell’s
achievement as a poet and defines her talent admirably. In a
biographical note at the end of the book Anne Dunn accounts for the
tragic death that shocked the world a year ago.... Miss Cromwell, as
Mr Colum wisely suggests, was not a poet of facile and sensational
emotions. Her gift is pensive. Her songs have a quiet music. Here is
light that glows clearly, not fire to heat us.”—N Y Times

“Miss Cromwell was not one of those young poets who accept
without question the traditionally ‘poetic’ themes and prattle,
without a sign of conviction, of love and springtime and the
picturesque beauties of nature. She wrote of real spiritual
experiences, of what she had herself thought and felt.”

+ Ath p289 F 27 ’20 140w

“In the group here entitled ‘Later poems’—the closing record of

two very noble and fervid lives brought to a tragic end—there is
nearly always a stark and shining strength in which a certain calm
sweetness is not utterly without its part.” H: A. Lappin

+ Bookm 51:216 Ap ’20 220w

+ Cleveland p73 Ag ’20 150w

“The poems of the unfortunate Gladys Cromwell betray the hidden

thing that wrecked her career. One sees, in practically all of her
poems, a fear of this life that is a kaleidoscope of beauty,
belligerence, and bestiality. The inability to adjust herself to an
insecure and chaotic world is manifested even in her earlier poems
which contain some of her finest lyrics. In poems like The mould,
Definition, Dominion, and Choice she seems a tentative and
somewhat frailer Emily Dickinson, with a less incisive and more
indirect idiom.” L: Untermeyer
 + − Dial 68:534 Ap ’20 180w
+ Ind 103:54 Jl 10 ’20 300w

“The work of a finely thoughtful woman whom the spectacle of

sheer, naked cleverness and successfulness hurt, it represents
feminine introspection almost at its best.” M. V. D.

+ Nation 111:247 Ag 28 ’20 150w

“It is the cumulative effect of the collection that is most

remarkable. As one reads on, the book develops a unity that is more
than a unity of texture or of inspiration. It achieves an eloquence,—
superseding the poet’s earlier constraint—that seems almost to
deepen the lyric sequence to the additional significance of a
monodrama.” O. R.

+ New Repub 22:65 Mr 10 ’20 1000w

“The poems are sincere, but sometimes stumbling. The winds of

time will blow from the tree of poetry some of the leaves as heavy as
these and as slightly affixed.”

+ − N Y Call p11 Ag 1 ’20 200w

“If Miss Cromwell had lived she would never have been a popular
poet, but it is quite likely that she would have written rare lyrics for
the pleasure of poets and others to whom poetry is no amusement,
but, in a deep and real sense, the sharing of life.”

+ N Y Times 25:173 Ap 11 ’20 480w

 “Her poetical work throughout is the self-revelation, made with a
blunt direct sincerity, of a fine spirit and a thoughtful mind.”

+ The Times [London] Lit Sup p243 Ap

15 ’20 210w

[2]
CROSLEY, MRS PAULINE S. Intimate letters
from Petrograd. *$3 Dutton 947

20–10514

“Pauline S. Crosley’s book is a collection of letters written to

members of her family, principally from Petrograd, where her
husband was American naval attaché from the spring of 1917 until
the flight of the foreign legations and embassies through Finland in
the following February.”—N Y Times

“The book is remarkable for its unbiased opinions and its clear
estimate of the political situations, as well as for its realistic account
of the chaotic conditions of Russia in the first days of its downfall.”

+ Cath World 112:553 Ja ’21 80w

+ N Y Times p22 S 12 ’20 1400w

CROTHERS, SAMUEL MCCHORD. Dame

school of experience, and other papers. *$2 (3½c)
Houghton 814
 20–22103

In the opening paper the author reports an interview he had with

the “withered dame” who teaches the school of experience. He found
the schoolhouse an ancient building and the equipment primitive.
The dame treated his inquiry into her methods as a prehistoric joke
and made it plain that she did not go in for the fancy branches of
ethics. Her parting advice was to treat experience not as a noun but
as a verb and to mind the adverbs. The other papers are: The
teacher’s dilemma; Every man’s natural desire to be somebody else;
The perils of the literate; Natural enemies and how to make the best
of them; The spiritual adviser of efficiency experts; The Pilgrims and
their contemporaries; Education in pursuit of Henry Adams; The
hibernation of genius; The unpreparedness of liberalism; On the
evening of the new day.

“This volume of a dozen essays is bound to be one of the most

popular books of the season throughout the country, and while it
appeals primarily to the man and woman of literary culture, its
wisdom as well as its wit will draw many others to whom common
sense clothed in humor appeals particularly.”

+ Springf’d Republican p8 N 24 ’20 400w

CROWDER, ENOCH HERBERT. Spirit of

selective service. *$2 (2c) Century 353

20–5259

In part one of this book the author tells how the draft act was put
into operation. Its success was made possible, he says, thru the
cooperation of the men and women, nearly two hundred thousand
strong, who made up the backbone of the selective service system.
This body, composing the draft boards, “espoused the administration
of an unpopular law, and not only achieved success in its execution,
but popularized it as well.” In part two the author considers plans for
bringing the same spirit of cooperation to bear on the present
confusion. The chapters of part one are: America elects; Feeding the
god of war; The volunteer system in America; Pride of tradition
versus common-sense patriotism; Universal service in America;
Selective service in America; How England achieved selective
service; The spirit of the draft; Part two: The tasks that lie ahead; The
permanency of the selective service idea; The preservation of
Americanism; A plan of action; The old guard. An appendix gives
General Crowder’s report as provost marshal general to the secretary
of war on the demobilization of his department.

“Clearly written and very interesting historically.”

+ Booklist 16:261 My ’20

“While ‘The spirit of selective service’ contains more detail,

description, and theory of the draft and its aftermath than it does
‘spirit,’ it is none the less a well written and valuable contribution to
the already large collection of semi-technical post-war literature.” C.
K. M.

+ Boston Transcript p4 My 26 ’20 360w

“It may be that some of its propositions are more ingenious than
practicable, though it would not be easy to point them out. It may be
that the writer is over-hopeful of the success of some of his plans,
though he maintains generally an admirable tone of moderation. It is
certain that he has, in a broad and patriotic spirit, presented most
lucidly what he esteems to be the lesson of one of the greatest
administrative achievements in the history of our government.”

+ No Am 211:857 Je ’20 1400w

R of Rs 61:557 My ’20 120w

CROWELL, JOSHUA FREEMAN. Outdoors

and in. *$1.50 Four seas co. 811

20–5146

Nature themes predominate in this volume of poems and not the

least attractive of them are those inspired by the cultivated garden
flowers. There are a few poems of social interest, including those
which touch on the war. An occasional vein of satire is also disclosed.
The verses are grouped under the following heads: Through the year;
Along the way; Above the clouds; From sea and shore; By wood and
stream; Of field and town; To tone and tune; Garden wise; An
interlude; Dream wise.

“Skilled though he be in verse forms, Mr Crowell is nevertheless

far from being a poet, and no discriminating reader will ever suspect
him of it.”

− + Cath World 111:838 S ’20 100w

“The verses are pleasant and often graceful. The book is enjoyable
reading, though hardly belonging to the heights of poetry.”
 + N Y Call p11 Ag 1 ’20 120w

CROWTHER, SAMUEL. Common sense and

labour. *$2 (3½c) Doubleday 331

20–7435

In attempting to put his finger on the something wrong in the

industrial world of today, in the relations between employer and
employee, the writer does not find any intrinsic antagonism between
capital and labor. On the contrary he believes that “there is a growing
conception that capital and labor are complementary, that it is
perfectly possible to effect a bargain and sale with a reasonable profit
to both sides and without more than a natural amount of bickering.”
He has little use for any of the revolutionary changes involved in
“profit-sharing,” the “democratization of industry” and the like, but
thinks that constructive results can be achieved when “capital and
labor meet not as partners but as persons anxious to make all that
they can out of the same general opportunity.” Contents: The
fundamental causes of labour unrest; The relation between the
employer and the employed; The worker and his wage; Wages and
profit-sharing delusions; The fetish of industrial democracy; When
they get together; The economic truths of work; The man and the
machine; The methods and policies of British labour.

“The many cases cited give it a lively interest for the average,
concerned business man or worker.”

+ Booklist 16:299 Je ’20

+ Cleveland p75 Ag ’20 40w
 Reviewed by J. E. Le Rossignol

Review 3:651 D 29 ’20 500w

“His book makes for sanity on both sides.”

+ R of Rs 61:672 Je ’20 40w

“Distinguished by rare good sense and lack of partisanship.”

+ St Louis 18:215 S ’20 20w

“He is not always judicious in his strictures and his indulgence in

cutting epigram is sometimes rather annoying, but there is much of
stimulating information and suggestion in his essay.”

+ − Springf’d Republican p10 My 6 ’20

240w

“His initial chapter Mr Crowther entitles The fundamental causes

of labor unrest and in it he indicates clearly his own lack of
understanding of those causes.”

− Survey 44:316 My 29 ’20 200w

+ The Times [London] Lit Sup p554 Ag
26 ’20 80w
 CROWTHER, SAMUEL. Why men strike.
*$1.75 (3c) Doubleday 331.1

20–8812

The author’s contention is that men are now no longer striking for
higher wages or shorter hours, as formerly, but are striking against
work, i.e. against what they think is an unjust system of society. He
has no fault to find with capital, as such, but thinks its present mode
of distribution could be improved upon. To that end he advocates a
new kind of thrift, that is not based primarily on self-denial but
rather on wise spending. By affording opportunities for investment
of savings, thus returning them to production, he would give the
workers a stake in society, create a nation of capitalists and appease
social unrest.

Booklist 17:51 N ’20

Ind 103:319 S 11 ’20 20w

“It is a genial and smoothly written but ill-informed piece of work.”

G: Soule

− + Nation 111:533 N 10 ’20 170w

“He is involved in assumptions which are hardly tenable, and in

conclusions which are of negligible social value.” Ordway Tead

− New Repub 24:100 S 22 ’20 2100w

 + The Times [London] Lit Sup p783 N 25
’20 70w

CROY, HOMER. Turkey Bowman. il *$1.75

(2½c) Harper

20–16795

Like the author’s novel “Boone Stop” this is a story of boy life in
the West. But it pictures a somewhat earlier period when the Indians
were not yet subdued and when Indian uprisings were to be feared.
The young hero, Turkey Bowman, jilted by the girl he has fallen in
love with, runs away from home in company with a somewhat older
vagabond who shares his opinion of the sex. Slim too has a broken
heart and the two are drawn together in misery. They have various
wandering adventures and settle down for a time on a cattle ranch.
Slim eventually changes his attitude toward women and Turkey
carries news of a proposed Indian raid to the army post and returns
home a hero.

“Turkey is always amusing, and he is a very human boy.”

+ Boston Transcript p5 D 4 ’20 340w

“There is real humor crammed into the pages, the juvenile

principals are real boys and described true to nature, while there is
no taint of artificial coloring in description or action.”

+ Springf’d Republican p7a N 21 ’20 110w

 CROZIER, WILLIAM. Ordnance and the world
war. *$2.50 (3c) Scribner 940.373

20–8902

A book subtitled “a contribution to the history of American

preparedness.” The author’s purpose is to describe the ordnance
department and to trace the various steps in equipping the army for
France, leaving the reader to judge to what extent the department
met its responsibilities. Contents: Ordnance department;
Embarrassments; Overhead organization; Criticisms; Rifles;
Machine guns; Field artillery; Smokeless powder; Responsibility;
Conclusion. The author states that since he is no longer a member of
the war department he speaks “without official authority, and with
something of the freedom of any other citizen.”

“So far as the book is an apology for the Ordnance department, it is

well done and is successful. So far as it is an apology for the writer
himself, it had better have been left undone. It doth protest too
much; it leaves the reader not quite convinced; worse, far worse, it
leaves him bored.” H: W. Bunn

+ − Review 3:319 O 13 ’20 1500w

“Altogether the book has a larger field than its mere name implies.
It may be said to be an authoritative and comprehensive history of an
achievement characteristically American in dealing with new and
extraordinary problems.” F. B. C. Bradlee

+ Springf’d Republican p6 Jl 16 ’20 310w