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Numbers and
Narratives in
Bangladesh’s
Economic
Development
Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir
Numbers and Narratives in Bangladesh’s Economic
Development
Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir
Numbers
and Narratives
in Bangladesh’s
Economic
Development
Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir
Department of Development Studies
University of Dhaka
Dhaka, Bangladesh
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer
Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the
Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights
of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on
microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and
retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology
now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc.
in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such
names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for
general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and informa-
tion in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither
the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with
respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been
made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps
and institutional affiliations.
This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature
Singapore Pte Ltd.
The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore
189721, Singapore
To my son
Muharrir Munir Arshad Titumir
wishing you a life in a happy Bangladesh
Preface and Acknowledgements
vii
viii PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
may hinder the capacity to create a new system when ecological, social or
economic structures render the current system unsound, hence requiring
corrections for transformability.
In Bangladesh, there is a lack of endeavours that explores develop-
ment by drawing variables of politics and economics to investigate a causal
relationship. The absence has caught somewhat misplaced lamentations.
This is often termed as a “development surprise”, “development paradox”
or “development conundrum”, given the absence of good governance.
Pointing out the “high” rate of growth in Bangladesh’s Gross Domestic
Product (GDP), on the contrary, a section is disseminating a belief of the
precedence of economic growth even without functioning institutions.
They often assert that economic development is more important than
an inclusive political system. The foundation of the project lies on the
comprehension that such illusory propositions are backed neither by solid
theoretical footing nor by empirical validation. It is therefore, imperative
to undertake a critical scrutiny and debunk these claims by examining the
political economic dynamics and focus on the patterns of growth in the
last decade, which has been validated further and not restricted by the
COVID-19 context.
The book, thus, investigates the numbers and narratives through
analysing the necessary and sufficient conditions for development. The
necessary conditions imply an incisive inquiry into the factors of economic
growth—land, labour, capital and technology while the sufficient condi-
tion is captured in terms of political settlement. The project interjects
these variables on themes such as growth, agriculture, the manufacturing
industry, the financial sector, health, education, poverty and inequality.
The book, therefore, presents an understanding of the state of
Bangladesh’s economy that demystifies the myths on Bangladesh, helps
international and national policymakers grasp the ground reality to set its
course for appropriate action, and equips the academia and the policy-
makers with much-needed rigorous independent analysis on Bangladesh’s
contemporary development.
I am grateful to the Palgrave Macmillan’s two anonymous referees for
their incisive comments for the development of the book.
I wish to express my gratitude to my “never saying no” team at
the Unnayan Onneshan—Md. Shah Paran, Mostafa Walid Pasha, Wahid
Haider, Fahim Shahriar and Adrina Ibnat Jamilee Adiba—who provided
brilliant research assistance. Parbon Khan from Toronto deserves special
mention for the pre-review copy-editing assistance.
PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ix
Two women - mother, Rawshan Ara Begum and wife, Munira Nasreen
Khan – both teachers – are my sources of inspiration and have been
standing by my side, in sickness and health, in joy and in sorrow. My
father—Prof. Dr. M Arshad Ali—has never missed the chance of reading
my manuscript at first. I am grateful to my youngest brother, Rashed Al
Ahmad Tarique, who made the book accessible through painstaking copy-
editing, despite his busy life in Melbourne. With my three brothers and
one sister and their families—I have been laughing, crying and growing
with you in mind and spirit.
I am alone responsible for any errors, inadequacies and omissions still
remaining in the book.
As this book is taking shape, a global crisis facing the entirety of the
world’s population has been brought on by the contagion of the coro-
navirus pandemic which grapples the world economy by enforcing nearly
90 per cent of it under some form of lock-down, disrupting global
and national supply chains, curtailing consumer expenditure and putting
millions out of employment.
The Bangladesh economy has been witnessing signs of distress well
before the strike of the pandemic as jobless growth, slowdown in
poverty reduction, decline in export–import and unfulfilled targets of
tax revenue collection were rampant, despite having higher economic
growth. Economic growth in recent periods has largely resulted from
labour migration from rural areas to urban cities and abroad. Migration
of labour has increased the consumption expenditure. Investment and
real wage growth remain stagnant. Remittances, constituting the core of
rural consumption expenditure, though, had been declining prior to the
pandemic, and is expected to plummet after cohorts of migrant workers
have returned home from countries in Europe and the Middle East.
The agriculture sector has been lagging behind in terms of technolog-
ical advancements and increased agricultural input prices. The disruption
in supply chains of agricultural produce, due to the shutdown of trans-
portation, will dampen future production incentives for farmers. Simul-
taneously, the manufacturing sector has transformed into a one-sector
industry tainted by low productivity, diminishing competitive advantage
xi
xii INTRODUCTION
xix
xx CONTENTS
2 Agriculture in Bangladesh 33
Introduction 33
Stability Conditions 38
Fragility in Food Security 38
Slow Rate of Structural Transformation 39
Increasing Land Fragmentation 40
Overuse of Fertilisers 42
Differential Access to Credit 43
Declining Agricultural Productivity with Concentrated
Output Basket 43
Low Utilisation of Technology 45
Loss from Covid-19 46
Transformability Conditions 47
Diversification of Output 47
Integrated Irrigation 48
Optimum Use of Fertilisers 49
Formalising Credit 51
Mechanisation in Harvesting 51
Integrated Agricultural Marketing System 53
Sustainability Conditions 53
Sustainable Irrigation Methods 53
Shifting Towards Bio-Fertilisers 54
Diversification Towards Cash Crops 55
Concluding Remarks 56
References 59
3 Manufacturing Industry of Bangladesh 63
Introduction 63
Stability Conditions 65
Production Capacity 65
Market Diversification 72
Employment Generation 73
Technological Catch-Up 77
COVID-19: A Havoc in the Manufacturing Industry 78
Transformability Conditions 80
Increasing Competitiveness 81
Augmentation of Technological Deepening 83
Dual Circulation and Market Diversification 85
Clean Production 85
CONTENTS xxi
Sustainability Conditions 86
Circular Production 87
Equalising Returns 88
Whole of Society 89
Concluding Remarks 89
References 93
4 Financial Sector of Bangladesh 97
Introduction 97
Banking Sector: A Framework 99
Stability Conditions 99
Deterioration in Quality and Soundness 101
Shortfalls in Access and Functioning 107
Transformability Conditions 110
Performance and Profitability 111
Sustainability Conditions 115
Diversification of Investment Portfolio 115
Strengthened Policies for Risk Management 117
Capital Market: A Framework 117
Stability Conditions 118
Size of the Market 119
Access to the Market 121
Transformability Conditions 122
Efficiency of the Market 122
Risk Control Mechanisms 123
Price-Earnings (P/E) Ratio 124
Sustainability Conditions 125
Linking the Banking Sector and Stock Market 126
Growing Importance of Financial Sector in Pandemic Era 127
Concluding Remarks 128
References 129
5 Education in Bangladesh 131
Introduction 131
Stability Conditions 134
Increasing Access to Education 135
Low Skill Formation and Innovation 138
Waning Citizenship Education 141
Disruptions Caused by the COVID-19 Pandemic 143
Transformability Conditions 145
xxii CONTENTS
Index 241
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upon. Geo. W. Johnson was chosen Governor. Legislative Council
were: Willis B. Machen, John W. Crockett, James P. Bates, Jas. S.
Chrisman, Phil. B. Thompson, J. P. Burnside, H. W. Bruce, J. W.
Moore, E. M. Bruce, Geo. B. Hodge.
MARYLAND.
Nov. 27th, 1860. Gov. Hicks declined to call a special session of the
Legislature, in response to a request for such convening from
Thomas G. Pratt, Sprigg Harwood, J. S. Franklin, N. H. Green,
Llewellyn Boyle, and J. Pinkney.
December 19th. Gov. Hicks replied to A. H. Handy, Commissioner
from Mississippi, declining to accept the programme of Secession.
20th. Wm. H. Collins, Esq., of Baltimore, issued an address to the
people, in favor of the Union, and in March a second address.
31st. The “Clipper” denied the existence of an organization in
Maryland to prevent the inauguration of President Lincoln.
A. H. Handy of Mississippi addressed citizens of Baltimore in favor
of disunion.
January 3d, 1861. Henry Winter Davis issued an address in favor
of the Union.
3d. Numerous Union meetings in various part of the State. Gov.
Hicks issued an address to the people against secession.
11th. John C. Legrand in a letter to Hon. Reverdy Johnson replied
to the Union speech of the latter.
14th. James Carroll, former Democratic candidate for Governor,
announced his desire to go with the seceding States.
16th. Wm. A. Spencer, in a letter to Walter S. Cox, Esq., declared
against the right of Secession but for a Convention.
16. Marshal Kane, in a letter to Mayor Berrett, denied that any
organization exists to prevent the inauguration of President Lincoln,
and said that the President elect would need no armed escort in
passing through or sojourning within the limits of Baltimore and
Maryland.
24th. Coleman Yellott declared for a Convention.
30th. Messrs. John B. Brooke, President of the Senate, and E. G.
Kilbourn, Speaker of the House of Delegates, asked the Governor to
convene the Legislature in response to public meetings. Senator
Kennedy published his opinion that Maryland must go with Virginia.
February 18th. State Conference Convention held, and insisted
upon a meeting of the Legislature. At a meeting in Howard Co.,
which Speaker E. G. Kilbourn addressed, a resolution was adopted
that “immediate steps ought to be taken for the establishment of a
Southern Confederacy, by consultation and co-operation with such
other Southern and Slave States as may be ready therefor.”
April 21st. Gov. Hicks wrote to Gen. Butler, advising that he do not
land his troops at Annapolis. Butler replied that he intended to land
there and march thence to Washington. Gov. Hicks protested against
this and also against his having taken forcible possession of the
Annapolis and Elkridge railroad.
24th. A special election of ten delegates to the Legislature took
place at Baltimore. The total vote cast in all the wards was 9,249. The
total vote cast at the Presidential election in November, 1860, was
30,148.
26th. Legislature reassembled at Frederick, Annapolis being
occupied by Union troops.
29th. Gov. Hicks sent a message to the Legislature communicating
to them the correspondence between himself and Gen. Butler and
the Secretary of War relative to the landing of troops at Annapolis.
The House of Delegates voted against Secession, 53 to 13. Senate
unanimously.
May 2d. The Committee on Federal Relations, “in view of the
seizure of the railroads by the General Government and the erection
of fortifications,” presented resolutions appointing Commissioners to
the President to ascertain whether any becoming arrangements with
the General Government are practicable, for the maintenance of the
peace and honor of the State and the security of its inhabitants. The
report was adopted, and Otho Scott, Robt. M. McLane, and Wm. J.
Ross were appointed such Commissioners.
Mr. Yellott in the Senate introduced a bill to appoint a Board of
Public Safety. The powers given to the Board included the
expenditure of the two millions of dollars proposed by Mr. Brune for
the defence of the State, and the entire control of the military,
including the removal and appointment of commissioned officers. It
was ordered to a second reading by a vote of 14 to 8. The Board was
to consist of Ezekiel F. Chambers, Enoch Louis Lowe, John V. L.
MacMahon, Thomas G. Pratt, Walter Mitchell, and Thomas Winans.
Gov. Hicks was made ex-officio a member of the Board. This
measure was strongly pressed by the Disunionists for a long time,
but they were finally compelled to give way, and the bill never
passed.
6th. The Commissioners reported the result of their interview with
the President, and expressed the opinion that some modification of
the course of the General Government towards Maryland ought to be
expected.
10th. The House of Delegates passed a series of resolutions
reported by the Committee on Federal Relations by a vote of 43 to 12.
The resolutions declare that Maryland protests against the war, and
does earnestly beseech and implore the President of the United
States to make peace with the “Confederate” States; also, that “the
State of Maryland desires the peaceful and immediate recognition of
the independence of the Confederate States.” Those who voted in the
negative are Messrs. Medders, Lawson, Keene, Routzahn, Naill,
Wilson of Harford, Bayless, McCoy, Fiery, Stake, McCleary, and
Gorsuch.
13th. Both Houses adopted a resolution providing for a committee
of eight members, (four from each House) to visit the President of
the United States and the President of the Southern Confederacy.
The committee to visit President Davis were instructed to convey the
assurance that Maryland sympathizes with the Confederate States,
and that the people of Maryland are enlisted with their whole hearts
on the side of reconciliation and peace.
June 11th. Messrs. McKaig, Yellott and Harding, Commissioners to
visit President Davis, presented their report; accompanying which is
a letter from Jefferson Davis, expressing his gratification to hear that
the State of Maryland was in sympathy with themselves, was enlisted
on the side of peace and reconciliation, and avowing his perfect
willingness for a cessation of hostilities, and a readiness to receive
any proposition for peace from the United States Government.
20th. The House of Delegates, and June 22d, the Senate adopted
resolutions unqualifiedly protesting against the arrest of Ross
Winans and sundry other citizens of Maryland, as an “oppressive and
tyrannical assertion and exercise of military jurisdiction within the
limits of Maryland, over the persons and property of her citizens, by
the Government of the United States.”
MISSOURI.
South Carolina.
To Alabama, A. P. Calhoun.
To Georgia, James L. Orr, Ex-M. C.
To Florida, L. W. Spratt.
To Mississippi, M. L. Bonham, Ex-M. C.
To Louisiana, J. L. Manning.
To Arkansas, A. C. Spain.
To Texas, J. B. Kershaw.
To Virginia, John S. Preston.
Alabama.
Georgia.
Mississippi.
South Carolina.
Alabama.
W. P. Chilton.
Stephen F. Hale.
David P. Lewis.
Thomas Fearn.
Richard W. Walker.
Robert H. Smith.
Colin J. McRae.
John Gill Shorter.
J. L. M. Curry, Ex-M. C.
Florida.
Mississippi.
W. S. Wilson.
Wiley P. Harris, Ex-M. C.
James T. Harrison.
Walter Brooke, Ex-U. S. Senator.
William S. Barry, Ex-M. C.
A. M. Clayton.
Georgia.
Louisiana.
Duncan F. Kenner.
Charles M. Conrad, Ex-U. S. Senator.
Henry Marshall.
John Perkins, jr.
G. E. Sparrow.
E. De Clouet.
Texas.