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RE A LI SM A ND
T H E C L I MATE
C R I SIS
HO PE FOR LIFE
JOH N FO STER
REALISM AND THE
CLIMATE CRISIS
Hope for Life
John Foster
First published in Great Britain in 2022 by
The right of John Foster to be identified as author of this work has been asserted by him in
accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved: no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or
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not of the University of Bristol or Bristol University Press. The University of Bristol and Bristol
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and sexuality.
A Note on Notes vi
Acknowledgements vii
Notes 178
References 189
Index 194
v
A Note on Notes
vi
Acknowledgements
This book tries to improve on my After Sustainability, which in its turn tried
to improve on The Sustainability Mirage. While this is a process which could
in principle run and run, I am luckily now old enough for it to be nearing
its natural end.
After Sustainability started from a challenge to widely prevalent denial of
climate and environmental tragedy, and the hopes with which it concluded
were correspondingly both chastened and limited. I have since come to
see that one must start from more robustly transformative hopes, while still
recognizing that our tragic situation conditions the actions which can flow
from them. This shift of emphasis was prompted partly by the personal
considerations mentioned briefly in the Introduction, but friendly and
constructive criticism of the earlier approach from a good many people also
helped; I must especially thank in this connection Samantha Earle, Margaret
Gearty, Susan Goldsworthy, Steve Gough, Doris Hauser, Stefan Morales
and Rupert Read.
Thanks are due, too, to my Lancaster colleague Matthew Johnson,
general editor of the journal Global Discourse, for inviting me to guest-edit a
special issue (Volume 7, Issue 1, 2017) on the theme ‘After Sustainability –
What?’ –later published in book form as Post-Sustainability: Tragedy and
Transformation (Abingdon: Routledge, 2018). This project provided a forum
for illuminating engagement with a number of my fellow contributors,
notably Ingolfur Blühdorn, Mike Hannis and Panu Pihkala. I am particularly
grateful to Rupert Read, my exchange with whom extending over the
last 40 pages of this volume was a very powerful stimulus to rethinking.
Similarly, involvement with the think tank Green House, including editing
its most recent book Facing Up to Climate Reality: Honesty, Disaster and Hope
(London: Green House, 2019) and contributing a series of opinion pieces
and book reviews to its website at https://www.greenhousethinktank.org/,
has brought me many valuable insights from colleagues: thanks in particular
to Nadine Andrews, Anne Chapman, Ray Cunningham, Jonathan Essex
and Brian Heatley. (Neither they nor Green House, however, should be
taken to agree with all the views expressed in this book.)
vii
newgenprepdf
viii
Introduction: Hope, Realism and
the Climate Crisis
The possibility of hope is now the central question of our time. That is
because it is crucial to the climate crisis, which is our time’s overwhelmingly
urgent challenge.
Much else is pressing: poverty, hunger, war and threats of war, unravelling
international institutions, clashing religious fundamentalisms, cyber-security,
the dark web, deep uncertainties around sexuality and identity … the list
goes on. This is altogether the most existentially exacting juncture in human
history. But the climate crisis is now absolutely primary. On how we respond
to that crisis depends, it is increasingly apparent, the future of our existence
itself. There can no longer be any serious doubt that the present trajectory
of human-induced global heating, unaddressed or even just inadequately
addressed, could within the present century take the Earth’s atmosphere to
temperatures at which civilization certainly, and maybe human life, could
not survive. That claim is so far from being irresponsibly alarmist that it
expresses the current sober consensus among informed scientists. It would
be excessive to say that in such a context, nothing else matters. But the
basic preconditions for anything else to go on mattering all that much for
all that long are now at risk. When your house is on fire, first things first is
a maxim of mere common sense.
With a house on fire, however, acting hopefully on that maxim is likely
to be a fairly simple matter. You will hope for some swiftly available means
of putting the fire out, and often this hope will be a perfectly realistic one
to entertain in your circumstances, and will be duly answered. With the
climate crisis, however, things are a lot less straightforward.
1
REALISM AND THE CLIMATE CRISIS
2
Introduction
movement announces its intention ‘to rise up and take direct action where
older generations have failed’. These closely linked recent manifestations,
responding to urgently perceived danger, have energized a wider green
constituency which was becoming stale and exhausted from the sheer effort
of having tried for years to make headway in pushing this enormous boulder
up this steepest of hills. That is by no means to dismiss the established political,
NGO and academic strands of green activity, which remain importantly in
play. But the whole issue has been decisively reinvigorated and has claimed
a new level of public attention through the activities of these newcomers.
They are easily the most hopeful gleams of light across what is nevertheless
a rapidly darkening landscape. But equally, and just as such, they raise what
I have called the question of the possibility of hope most acutely.
That question, put starkly, is: how in these conditions can hope be
kept honest?
Of course, there is hope and hope. When Greta Thunberg says ‘I don’t
want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. …
And then I want you to act’, she is calling out the ‘hopefulness’ paraded
at jamborees like the World Economic Forum, a smart-suited glibness
substituting for serious action and shrugging off real responsibility. That
attitude can’t be kept honest, because it never was. But climate activists,
Ms Thunberg included, have to start from genuinely robust hope, literally
morning by morning. They know that in order to carry on, they must tap
daily into the energy that only comes from hoping –from always-renewed
commitment to the achievability of a sustainably habitable world. And for
anyone seriously worried about these issues, activist or not, such commitment
is a condition of remaining constructively engaged, rather than turning
away to the many much more tractable concerns which life (or at any rate,
life in the short term) still offers. Nor is starting afresh, again and again,
from such hope merely a therapeutic resource, a kind of moral exercise
routine to make activism or constructive engagement easier to maintain. It
is what makes them feasible at all, for anyone even minimally attentive to
the situation as it now stands. And for hope of that order, the question of
honesty does inescapably arise.
Importantly, starting from genuine hope means just that, rather than
reaching it as the last hypothesis standing when optimism fails. My own
work in this field was initially, back in the 1990s, probably an exercise in
such optimism: an attempt to defend the then-new sustainability imperative
from perverse economistic modelling, as it started to be taken up into the
mainstream. There appeared, back then, to be at least some prospect that
something better than ‘sustainable development’, with its quantified and
monetized bottom lines, could become the pragmatic governing model.
But thereafter I moved, at first very reluctantly but with (it soon felt) no
responsible alternative, towards pointing out the danger of our being betrayed
3
REALISM AND THE CLIMATE CRISIS
4
Introduction
that it genuinely might. We may call the latter requirement the condition
of realism –genuine hope must address itself to a real chance, however
slender, of the hoped-for thing’s coming to pass, just as it must also involve
the courage to run the risk that it won’t. But this conceptual requirement
reflects our recognition of a vital practical necessity. Crucially, aspirations
which fail to meet the condition of realism can’t do the hard work of hope –
the work of getting us out of bed each day to go on risking ourselves in
what might be a struggle against the grain –because they always turn out
to be about what someone can or can’t bear to contemplate, rather than
about grappling with the tough and recalcitrant world over against us: and
one way or another, we always know this. Hoping unrealistically is always
either a denial of the full difficulties confronting us, or a way of giving up
while pretending not to.
That is why the question is one of honesty, and we can now formulate it
more sharply. Can hope for escape from humanity’s climate plight any longer
count as realistic? Do the odds –which, as I began by sketching them, are
now stacked so high against us –leave us anything which could legitimately
be claimed as a real chance of averting runaway global overheating? For if
they don’t, then since life-hope seems non-optional, it can only be embraced
as a form of self-delusion. This fear must gnaw at the heart of any climate
activist who allows him-or herself to think dispassionately about the issues.
Tough hope
I want to argue that hope can still meet the condition of realism. But it can
do so only under other conditions which many activists may find almost as
difficult to accept as hope’s abandonment. That is why, within its class –books
about the climate crisis which contend that we might still have a chance to
survive it –this book will be found to take an unconventional line.
For one thing, although it has been substantially revised and brought to
a conclusion during the ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic, it does not
venture the claim that trying to deal with that grisly outbreak has better
prepared us for confronting the climate emergency. It points neither to
government willingness to upend the economy, public acceptance of
intrusive regulation, nor a new sense of communal solidarity, as potential
COVID-19 bonuses to be carried forward into the climate context. For
reasons about which I say a little more in the final c hapter –essentially, the
difference between an immediate mortal threat and prospective disasters
well over the horizon –I am seriously sceptical of that claim, and would
remain so even were public acceptance of restriction much less patchy than
it has latterly become.
But even more unexpectedly, perhaps, the book also includes no material
on climate justice (except in passing as part of a critique of the Green New
5
REALISM AND THE CLIMATE CRISIS
Deal), and treats neither of human rights nor of alleged rights of any other
kind. It does not discuss techno-fixes, whether favourably or unfavourably.
It lacks chapters on corporate malfeasance and the sins of late capitalism,
the Millennium Development Goals and the scandal of world poverty, the
role of green business and investment, and even the prospects for China. It
lauds neither the virtues of democracy despite its failures, nor the wisdom of
indigenous peoples despite their regrettable marginalization. And it scarcely
alludes to issues of Western diet.
These omissions do not mean that I think none of the above matter. They
most of them clearly do, very much –our attitudes to technology and to
democracy in particular. But they represent a terrain which has now been
very well worked over in that sort of book during the past decade or so,
from Tim Jackson’s Prosperity Without Growth through Naomi Klein’s This
Changes Everything and George Monbiot’s Out of the Wreckage to Jonathon
Porritt’s recent Hope in Hell. And the working-over has answered to a general
approach: ‘Surely now at last we are reaching a moment when all these
progressive concerns must jump together, and serious action to avert climate
catastrophe must garner widespread popular consent!’ –an approach which
has persisted largely unaltered, it has to be said, while the jumping together,
and the widespread consent, have (broadly) continued not to materialize.
All these authors, that is, want to find or renew hope on liberal-progressivist
terms. They want us to be able to hope, even yet, for a transformation which
will yield conditions of general material sufficiency, structured by justice
and organized by egalitarian-democratic methods. They want to retain,
even in this extremity and however sobered and muted, essentially the
Enlightenment package.
Instead of revisiting this terrain or maintaining this approach, I want to
make an uncomfortably different case –one which I believe we cannot
any longer postpone considering. Given the conceptual relations between
hope, experience, realism and transformation, in the context of our wholly
unprecedented plight, hope can now only be honestly entertained on tragic
terms. What that entails in practice is that we have to try to save the habitability
of the planet at whatever cost. And politically, that in turn involves accepting
that nothing decisive will happen, on any of these fronts, until the minority
who are both intelligent and imaginative enough to know what is coming,
and at the same time honest and brave enough to reject complicity in biocide,
finally takes matters into its own hands –by whatever means offer themselves,
and without waiting for popular consent. Nothing will really happen, that
is, until people forming what I call the life-responsible vanguard creatively
reconstitute themselves as a new kind of revolutionary force, something
markedly different from being a demonstrator or even a ‘rebel’.
That, incidentally, is why the book also does not touch on the recently
popular concept of ‘transformative adaptation’, or at least not as such. I think
6
Introduction
7
REALISM AND THE CLIMATE CRISIS
8
Introduction
But that truth, of course, also requires the vanguard itself to step up. From
its comfortably accustomed standpoint of informed critique, personal or
institutional campaigning or, most adventurously, law-abiding protest (and
even getting yourself carefully arrested by a generally well-behaved police
force, while of course it calls for courage and determination, is essentially still
that), this vanguard must move to becoming capable of doing the sweeping
aside, and fully ready to do it vigorously.
We need, that is, at last and above all, a Green-political movement
adequate to the demands of seeing us through oncoming tragedy –able to
interpret inevitable disaster convincingly enough to be widely accepted as
a guide, ready to confront painful choices and to cut its losses, remorselessly
proactive (since remorse must be tragically forgone, or at any rate suspended),
and unflinchingly cold-eyed about its deeper-than-democratic mandate.
Accordingly, this book concentrates as fiercely as I can on what I take to be
the need and the reasons for that uncompromisingly revolutionary stance.
At the worst, therefore, it may have put forward a case to be seriously
argued with.
A quick preview
Being realistic about the climate crisis requires us to ask whether, starting
from hope as we must, we can keep it both honest and still true to itself,
still springing unquenchably from the life which we are called on to defend.
Chapter 1 outlines the empirical realism according to which the odds against
us appear to be insurmountable. Politics is pre-eminently an arena in which
we are liable to ideological bias and groupthink, and correspondingly to
self-deception and wishful thinking –with green politics no exception. If,
to guard against this tendency, we cultivate a disillusioned realism based on
human experience, we must conclude it to be overwhelmingly likely that
we are out of time to avoid climate catastrophe. This is demonstrated from
consideration of the carbon budget within which we must keep if we are
to have any chance of avoiding runaway global heating; of the breakneck
rate at which we are still currently overspending that budget; of how
precipitously the emissions curve must consequently fall from hereon in; of
how inadequate the Paris Agreement has been in this connection; and of how
vigorously capitalism and the fossil-fuel state are bound to resist the necessary
measures. On all these dimensions, change of the order required is utterly
unprecedented, and the utterly unprecedented is the empirically unrealistic.
In Chapter 2, I go on to show how this need not, however, be the
final word. The heaviest adverse odds have not always been proof against
transformative human action driven by hope ‘against hope’. Though history
and biography prompt us with this realism of transformation, however, it
cannot be grounded empirically. Our ability to defy all the odds cannot be
9
REALISM AND THE CLIMATE CRISIS
10
Introduction
11
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Language: French
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