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Full download In a Bad State: Responding to State and Local Budget Crises David Schleicher file pdf all chapter on 2024
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In a Bad State
In a Bad State
DAVID SCHLEICHER
Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the
University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing
worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and
certain other countries.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval
system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in
writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under
terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization. Inquiries concerning
reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department,
Oxford University Press, at the address above.
You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same
condition on any acquirer.
ISBN 978–0–19–762915–4
eISBN 978–0–19–762917–8
DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780197629154.001.0001
For Amanda, Charlie, and Nate
CONTENTS
Acknowledgments
Notes
Index
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Imagine this: Sometime in the late 2020s, while the President and
Congress negotiate over one bill or another, big news drops. The
Governor of Illinois and the Mayor of Chicago are going to hold a
joint press conference to announce that the state and the city are
flat broke. They are both going to default on their debts and slash
their budgets if Congress doesn’t do something quickly to help them
out of their dire fiscal straits.
Everyone in DC turns on their TVs to watch the press conference.
As soon as it ends, the cable networks go live to protests in Chicago.
Schools have closed for the day, disorder reigns, and garbage sits
uncollected, as teachers, police officers, and other public sector
workers take to the streets to oppose proposed layoffs and pension
cuts. On location, reporters interview storeowners in Springfield,
Illinois, worried that soon-to-be fired state employees will stop
spending money, destroying the local economy. The Twitter hashtags
#IllinoIsOver and #ChicaGoAway trend worldwide, as major
companies announce their plans to move their headquarters and
factories away from the state before severe tax increases kick in.
It’s a disaster. The President brings her advisers and
Congressional allies to the White House to formulate a response.
The Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers goes first: “We
can’t let Illinois or Chicago cut services to the bone and fire tons of
employees,” he argues. “It will crush the economy. State and local
layoffs will directly lower employment levels, and multiplier effects
will mean even more job losses. Not to mention the human suffering
caused by lost government services—higher crime rates, 40 students
in each classroom, more homelessness, and reduced healthcare! Tax
increases will destroy economic activity and encourage people and
companies to leave the state. Austerity is not a solution.”
A Senator from Texas interrupts: “No, no, no! The worst thing we
can do is give federal money to Illinois,” she says. “Why should my
constituents pay for Chicago’s mistakes? The state and the city
repeatedly refused to raise taxes or cut spending enough to balance
their budgets. If we give aid to Illinois or Chicago, every governor
and mayor in the country will know that she can spend wildly
without consequences. And lenders will know there is no risk in
providing money to irresponsible governments. Let Illinois cut
spending or let it default. Either way, bailouts are not the answer.”
The Secretary of the Treasury pipes up: “Whatever we do, we
can’t let Illinois default on its promises. State and local governments
build and maintain almost everything useful in this country—roads,
trains, sewer systems, you name it. To do so, they need to be able
to borrow money. If Illinois defaults, or if Chicago files for
bankruptcy, the municipal bond market might collapse. States and
cities around the country won’t be able to borrow, which will mean
they can’t invest in infrastructure. The future of the national
economy depends on Illinois avoiding default.”
What should the President and Congress do?
⋆⋆⋆
This scenario may seem far-fetched, but in March 2020 it looked like
we were in for a wave of state and local governmental defaults.
When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, a massive decline in economic
activity followed.1 Budget experts predicted both huge state and
local governmental revenue losses and large increases in demand for
healthcare and other social services because of the pandemic and
the recession.2
Defaults seemed possible, even likely. The last major recession,
the Great Recession of 2008, had been brutal on state and local
budgets.3 State and local governments laid off hundreds of
thousands of public employees, a loss of jobs so severe that it
substantially extended the length of the recession.4 Detroit and
several other cities were eventually forced to file for bankruptcy; the
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico effectively did so as well.
Some jurisdictions had substantially improved their fiscal situations
between 2008 and 2020, building up substantial “rainy day funds.”5
But others kept accruing more and more debt, often in the form of
underfunded pension liabilities and healthcare obligations for retired
public workers.6 In Connecticut in 2019, almost a third of the tax
revenue generated by the state went to making payments on debt
and retiree obligations.7 Connecticut was not alone—debt and
pension payments made up a huge portion of spending in states like
Illinois, New Jersey, and Kentucky as well.8
After what we saw following the Great Recession, the COVID-19
recession seemed sure to produce its own state and local fiscal
crises. The media ran story after story about impending disasters in
state budgets. Municipal bond markets seized up, creating questions
about the ability of state and local governments to borrow.9 State
and local governments laid off or furloughed more than a million
public employees, more than they had after 2008.10 Revenues
shriveled for many local governments, particularly those with
budgets reliant on tourism, the oil industry, car tolls, or mass transit
fares.11 The State of Illinois and New York’s Metropolitan
Transportation Authority were forced to borrow money from the
Federal Reserve.12 The leader of the Illinois State Senate asked
Congress for a $41B bailout.13
But a default crisis did not come to pass. The shock created by the
pandemic was very different in type from the crisis that hit in 2008.
High-income workers had largely stable incomes during the
pandemic and the stock market boomed, leading to consistent or
even increasing state income and capital gains tax revenues.14
Federal aid to individuals and firms helped preserve incomes despite
high unemployment.15 The bond market recovered after the Federal
Reserve, with Congress’s backing, created a facility for buying
municipal bonds.16 And, over the course of several pieces of
legislation, Congress provided an enormous amount of money to
state and local governments, flooding them with more federal money
than they lost in tax revenue.17 The result was state and local
budgets in 2021 were generally in better shape than they were
before the crisis; by 2022, many governments had huge budget
surpluses.
Despite flush budgets, however, the underlying structural
problems of state and local budgets have not been cured in many
places.18 It is possible some state and local budgets will be even
worse off in several years than they were previously, if governments
expand programs or cut taxes now in ways that will be difficult to
reverse when the gusher of federal aid runs out.
The easing of pressure on state budgets, though, provides the
country with some time to consider how it should respond to future
crises, whether they occur in individual jurisdictions or as part of a
national economic crash. This book is an effort to take advantage of
this lull to develop some new ideas about how federal officials and
voters alike should think about the problem of state and local fiscal
stress. The book will also propose some policies that can be enacted
to reduce the costs of such crises, acknowledging that state and
local fiscal crises will inevitably occur in a country with 50 states and
thousands of local governments.
Because a true nationwide state and local governmental default
crisis seemed possible, Congress was forced to wrestle with how to
respond. At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated
recession, there was a great deal of public discussion about state
fiscal issues. Ideas like creating a bankruptcy code for state
governments and federal aid to states took turns dominating
headlines.19
But the sides in these public debates often seemed to be talking
past one another. Republicans claimed state fiscal aid amounted to
“blue state bailouts,” despite the fiscal situation being as bad in
many Republican-dominated states as it was in Democratic-
dominated ones.20 Republicans also pooh-poohed the
macroeconomic and social costs of state and local governmental
layoffs, waiting until after November 2020 to allow a vote on a
second large state and local aid package, even though a Republican
president’s re-election chances surely would have been buoyed by a
better economy.21 Democrats argued there would be huge negative
economic and social outcomes if state and local aid was not offered,
and persisted in these claims well after state budgets had recovered
substantially.22 They also claimed that disaster would unfold if states
were given the power to file for bankruptcy, without revealing much
understanding of how sovereign bankruptcy might work in
practice.23
That these debates were unedifying, though, was not the fault of
politicians or journalists. Scholarship and elite discussion around
these issues has not helped them, missing many of the real concerns
created by state and local fiscal distress. Experts have not done a
good job explaining the true stakes of a state or large city default,
nor have we laid out the full set of options available to federal
officials in a crisis of this type.
The goal of this book is to provide a clear theory about the
challenges federal officials face when a state or city nears default
from the perspective of those officials, regardless of their party or
ideology. That is, it will try to explain what federal officials faced with
a state or local fiscal crisis can and cannot do. The goal is to make
federal officials ready when and if such a crisis comes to pass, and,
just as importantly, to provide all of us judging their decisions with
some perspective. Although it will draw on economics, political
science, law, and history, this book will do so in service of providing
a practical guide to understanding the difficult choices that federal
policymakers face in responding to state and local fiscal crises.
Further, looking at the role played by the federal government during
state and local budget crises will provide some lessons about how
we might reform our federal system more broadly.
Fortunately, or unfortunately, there is a lot of historical material to
draw on. Crises much like the one I asked you to imagine above
have happened several times in American history (without the cable
news coverage or Twitter hashtags!). All three branches of the
federal government—the President, Congress, and particularly the
federal courts—have played important roles in developing policy
toward states and cities on the edge of, or after, defaults.
Some of this history is well known. Federal responses to state
fiscal crises generated some of the most famous disputes in
American political history. These include the debate over the
assumption of state debts in Alexander Hamilton’s first financial plan
as Secretary of the Treasury (famously captured by Lin-Manuel
Miranda in “Cabinet Battle #1” in the musical Hamilton) and the fight
over Southern state debts at the end of Reconstruction after 1876.
But other federal responses to state and local debt crises, even
very dramatic ones, are little remembered. President and former
victorious Civil War Union general Ulysses S. Grant threatened to
send federal troops to the stalwart Union state of Iowa in the 1870s
to force small towns to make good on their bonded debt.24 In the
late 19th century, state legislatures effectively disbanded several
major city governments, a practice that became known as “corporate
suicide,” to help them avoid claims by creditors until the Supreme
Court stepped in and stopped the practice. The State of Arkansas
once played a role in global capital markets much like the one
Argentina does today, defaulting on its debts three times between
the 1840s and 1930s.
Other federal responses to local fiscal crises are misremembered.
For instance, in the mid-1970s, the New York Daily News famously
described President Gerald Ford’s position against providing aid to
New York City as “Ford to City: Drop Dead.”25 While the headline
stuck in our collective memory, President Ford supported legislation
that provided federal loans to New York City only a few months after
that headline ran.
While there have been many state and local fiscal crises in
American history, the federal government has not developed a
single, consistent formula for addressing them. What history reveals
is that the federal government does not have any good options when
addressing state and local fiscal crises. As a result, it has cycled
between responses that are bad in different ways.
When faced with a state or local fiscal crisis, federal officials
generally want to achieve three different things. They want to (1)
avoid the macroeconomic and social harms associated with state and
local spending cuts and tax increases during recessions; (2) avoid
creating an expectation on the part of state and city governments
that they will get bailouts in the future, as they might therefore
refuse to enforce fiscal discipline, what economists call “moral
hazard”; and (3) preserve the ability of states and cities to borrow
money in order to build infrastructure and make other debt-financed
investments.
But the federal government cannot achieve all three of these
things. It can achieve two of them, but not three. That is, it faces a
trilemma.26
Here’s what it can do.
The first option the federal government has is providing money to
deeply indebted states or cities. The federal government can take
advantage of its vast taxing powers, immense borrowing capacity,
and ability to print money to just pay off the creditors of a state or
city. States and cities that receive bailouts do not need to lay off
public workers, cut valuable social programs, or raise taxes, reducing
the harm to the broader economy and service recipients. State and
local bailouts do not require corresponding cuts at the federal level,
because the federal government, unlike states or cities, can easily
run deficits in a recession. Bailouts also encourage state and local
governments to borrow to invest in infrastructure, as lenders will be
comforted by what amounts to a federal guarantee for state debts,
and thus be willing to loan to states and municipalities at lower
rates.
But providing bailouts has an obvious downside: creating moral
hazard among states and localities. State and local officials around
the country may think future debts will be paid for by the federal
government and be reckless going forward. Bond markets may cease
to differentiate between good and bad credit risks, lending to both
responsible and spendthrift governments at similar interest rates, as
investors increasingly believe that the federal government is
providing a backstop for their loans. The easy availability of credit
removes pressure from politicians to budget responsibly. Further,
residents and politicians from other states may resent having their
tax dollars going toward services provided in the state receiving the
bailout.
Political scientist Jonathan Rodden has shown that national
governments around the world rarely provide bailouts to subnational
governments without also imposing severe conditions on their ability
to make fiscal policy choices in the future.27 Otherwise, bailouts lead
to too much moral hazard and/or inter-state conflict. This was borne
out recently. The huge state and local aid package in President Joe
Biden’s American Rescue Plan in 2021 barred states from using
federal funds to cut taxes and put limits on the uses for which the
money could be spent (although these limits were challenged in
court). Repeated bailouts would lead to subnational governments
losing much of their independence as fiscal entities.
Put another way, federalism as we know it is inconsistent with the
regular provision of bailouts to states and cities.
The second option the federal government has is to encourage
states and cities to pay their debts, using political and financial
pressure to overcome subnational jurisdictions’ legal protections
against creditor lawsuits where necessary. If state and local
taxpayers are forced to dig deep to pay their debts, moral hazard
ceases to be a concern. And the municipal bond market would be
strengthened, as lenders would know that they will get paid back
even when times are tough.
But forcing states and cities in a fiscal crisis to pay their debts
without federal aid has negative macroeconomic and social
consequences. States and cities cannot easily run deficits—they can’t
print money and they have state constitutional and market-based
limits on their ability to run deficits or issue debt. The only way a
jurisdiction in fiscal crisis can meet its obligations is to cut important
services, lay off public workers, and increase taxes. As most state
and local fiscal crises occur during recessions, these cuts are
particularly economically painful, destroying jobs and economic
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
Vitriniconus 16
Sitala 2
Kaliella 8
Trochomorpha 21
Endodonta 1
Plectopylis 3
Plectotropis 1
Aulacospira 3
Pupisoma 1
Satsuma 2
Dorcasia 2
Chloritis 7
Obbina 19
Papuina 1
Phoenicobius 7
Cochlostyla 247
Amphidromus 2
Hapalus (?) 4
Hypselostoma 1
Pupa 4
Clausilia 1
Subulina 3
Prosopeas 2
Opeas 4
Geostilbia 1
Tornalellina 1
Succinea 3
Vaginula 2
Ancylus 1
Limnaea 3
Planorbis 3
Physa 2
Melania 50
Pirena 2
Bithynia 1
Vivipara 7
Ampullaria 5
Acmella 2
Diplommatina 41
Arinia 6
Pupina 5
Registoma 7
Hargreavesia 1
Callia 2
Pupinella 3
Helicomorpha 4
Coptochilus 1
Alycaeus 1
Leptopoma 42
Lagochilus 11
Cyclophorus 31
Ditropis 7
Cyathopoma 5
Cyclotus 19
Omphalotropis 3
Helicina 18
Georissa 3
Anodonta 1
Cyrena 3
Corbicula 7
Islands adjacent to the Philippines.—The Philippines are
connected with Borneo by two distinct ridges or banks of elevation,
which enclose between them the Soo-loo or Mindoro Sea. There can
be little doubt that these ridges represent the ancient highway of
transit, by which Indo-Malay species passed into the Philippines. The
depth of the sea on either side is profound, ranging from an average
of about 1000 fathoms west of Palawan to 2550 off the south-west
coast of Mindanao.
It appears that the fauna of the Soo-loo ridge is definitely
Philippine up to and including Bongao, Sibutu, and Bilatan, the last
islands at the Bornean end of the ridge. On these are found two
species of Cochlostyla and an Obbina.
The Palawan ridge may also be described as more or less
Philippine throughout. One species of Cochlostyla occurs on
Balabac, just north of Borneo, and two on Palawan, but these are
perhaps counterbalanced by the definitely Indo-Malay Amphidromus
and Opisthoporus (1 sp. each). At the northern end of the ridge, on
Busuanga and Calamian, the Philippine element predominates.
Representatives of two remarkable groups of Helix (Camaena and
Phoenicobius) occur along the Palawan ridge and in Mindoro. The
Phoenicobius find their nearest allies in the curious small group
known as Obba, from N. Celebes, the Camaena possibly in a type of
Helix (Hadra) occurring in New Guinea and N.E. Australia. The only
other Helix from the whole of the E. Indies which bears any
resemblance to the Phoenicobius group is H. codonodes Pfr., which
is peculiar to the Nicobars. A few forms assigned to Camaena also
occur in Further India and Siam. It would appear possible, therefore,
that these two isolated groups are a sort of survival of a fauna which
perhaps had once a much more extended range.
(2) The Chinese Sub-region.—The Chinese Sub-region includes
the whole of China from its southern frontier up to and including the
basin of the Blue or Yang-tse River, together with the coast district,
including Corea, perhaps as far north as Vladivostok, and the
outlying islands of Hainan, Formosa, the Loo-Choo and Bonin
groups, and Japan to the north of Niphon. It may be divided into two
provinces, the Chinese and the Japanese.
(a) The fauna of the Chinese province proper bears, in many
respects, strong marks of relationship to that of India and Siam. Thus
Streptaxis, Helicarion, Macrochlamys, Kaliella, Sitala, Ariophanta,
Rhysota, Hemiplecta, Diplommatina, Opisthoporus, Pterocyclus,
Lagochilus, and Alycaeus all occur, especially in Southern China.
The two points in which the sub-region bears special marks of
individuality are Helix and Clausilia. The sub-genera of Helix which
have their metropolis in China are Satsuma, Cathaica, Aegista,
Acusta, Euhadra, Plectotropis, and Plectopylis. Sinistral forms
(compare Fig. 213) are rather prevalent. In several cases—e.g.
Trichia, Gonostoma, Fruticicola—there is a reappearance of forms
which appear to belong to well-known European sub-genera.
Clausilia here attains a kind of second centre of distribution, and is
represented by its finest forms, which belong to several peculiar sub-
genera. The carnivorous Mollusca are not abundant, and are
represented by Rathouisia (a peculiar genus of naked slug), Ennea,
and Streptaxis. In the western provinces Buliminus is abundant in
several sub-genera, one of which appears to be the European
Napaeus.
Fig. 213.—Helix
(Camaena) cicatricosa
Müll., China.
There is little which is striking in the operculates, which are most
abundant in the south, and appear to be mainly derived from Indian
and Siamese sources. The occurrence of Helicina (3 sp.),
Omphalotropis (1), Leptopoma (2), and Realia (2), is evidence of
some influence from the far East. Heudeia is a very remarkable and
quite peculiar form of Helicina with internal plicae, perhaps akin to
the Central American Ceres.
Fresh-water genera are exceedingly abundant, especially
Melania, Unio, and Anodonta. The occurrence of Mycetopus (a
South-American genus) is remarkable. There are several peculiar
forms of fresh-water operculates, whose exact position is hardly yet
assured.
Land and Fresh-water Mollusca of the Chinese Province
Rathouisia 1
Streptaxis 7
Ennea 12
Parmarion 2
Helicarion 15
Euplecta 3
Macrochlamys 19
Microcystina 2
Microcystis 7
Kaliella 16
Sitala 8
Ariophanta 1
Rhysota 5
Hemiplecta 1
Trochomorpha 2
Limax 1
Philomycus 1
Patula 2
Gonostoma 4
Metodontia 2
Vallonia 1
Plectotropis 9
Fruticicola 11
Satsuma 14
Trichia 10
Cathaica 22
Aegista 10
Armandia 3
Acusta 15
Obbina 1
Camaena 5
Euhadra 14
Plectopylis 19
Stegodera 6
Chloritis 1
Hel. Inc. sed. 39
Buliminus 21
Buliminopsis 3
Buliminidius 3
Napaeus 14
Rachis (?) 4
Pupa 10
Clausilia 102
Opeas 12
Euspiraxis 1
Subulina 5
Stenogyra (?) 12
Succinea 8
Vaginula 7
Limnaea 2
Planorbis 6
Melania 44
Paludomus 3
Bithynia 12
Lithoglyphus 3
Melantho (?) 1
Pachydrobia 1
Prososthenia 2
Stenothyra 2
Hydrobia 2
Mecongia 1
Oncomelania 9
Margaracya 1
Rivularia 4
Delavaya 1
Fenouillia 1
Vivipara 34
Diplommatina 20
Pupina 6
Alycaeus 23
Leptopoma 2
Lagochilus 10
Cyclophorus 18
Coelopoma 1
Pterocyclus 3
Opisthoporus 4
Cyclotus 10
Scabrina 4
Ptychopoma 12
Omphalotropis 1
Realia 2
Pseudopomatias 1
Helicina 3
Georissa 4
Heudeia 1
Cyclas 1
Corbicula 50
Unio 53
Monocondylaea 1
Anodonta 55
Mycetopus 12
Pseudodon 1
Dipsas 4
Fig. 215.—Placostylus
caledonicus Pet., New
Caledonia, × ⅔.
The New Hebrides link New Caledonia and the Solomons by their
possession of the typical heavy Placostylus (5 sp.) of the former, and
the lighter and more elegant Charis (2 sp.) of the latter. There are 4
Papuina, and Partula is abundant (18 sp.), but there is no evidence
at present that the carnivorous genera or the Melanopsis and Isidora
of New Caledonia occur.
The Fiji Is., by the possession of 14 Placostylus of the Charis
section, which is entirely absent from the adjacent Tonga group, form
the eastern limit of the province. There appears to be only a single
Partula, but the Polynesian element, especially as seen in Navicella
(8 sp.), Neritina (20 sp.), Helicina (11 sp.), and Omphalotropis (11
sp.), is very strong. The Microcystis (9 sp.) and Trochomorpha (14
sp.) are also of a Polynesian type.
(2) The Australian Sub-region includes the whole of Australia
(with the exception of the Queensland province) and Tasmania, with
New Zealand and the off-lying islands. The fauna, from the
prevalence of desert, is scanty, especially in genera. Land
operculates are almost entirely wanting. Limax is not indigenous,
though several species have become naturalised. The bulk of the
fresh-water species belong to Isidora, and it is doubtful whether
Physa occurs at all. Unio has a few species, and also Vivipara, but
neither Anodonta nor Ampullaria occur. There are a few Melania and
Neritina.
Tropical South Australia.—The Mollusca are scanty, and occur
chiefly in the neighbourhood of the rivers, the soil being arid, with no
shelter either of trees or rocks. Fresh-water species predominate,
and the rich land fauna of Queensland is totally wanting. There are
no land operculates, 6 Hadra, 1 Bulimus (?), 1 Stenogyra.
West Australia.—Owing to the deserts which bound it, the
Mollusca are very isolated, only one species being common with N.,
S., and E. Australia. The chief characteristics are Liparus, a form
intermediate between Helix and Bulimus, and, among the Helices,
the group Rhagada. There are no slugs, no carnivorous snails, and
only three land operculates.
Land Mollusca of West Australia
Lamprocystis 1
Hyalinia 1
Patula 7
Chloritis 2
Gonostoma 2
Trachia 3
Xerophila 1
Rhagada 8
Hadra 5
Liparus 10
Pupa 4
Succinea 3
Cyclophorus 2
Helicina 1
In Eastern and Southern Australia (New South Wales, Victoria,
and South Australia) the tropical element, so abundant in
Queensland, almost entirely disappears, the last operculate (a
Helicina) only reaching Port Macquarie, though several species of
Helicarion occur in the extreme south. Hadra is still abundant in New
South Wales (18 sp.) and S. Australia (10 sp.), but becomes scarce
in Victoria (2 sp.); New South Wales has also one Panda and two
Thersites. Cystopelta is common with Tasmania, and one of the
Janellidae (Aneitea) with Queensland. The carnivorous snails are
represented by Rhytida. Caryodes, a bulimoid group perhaps akin to
Liparus, is common with Tasmania only.
Tasmania.—About 80 species of land Mollusca are known, not
more than 10 being common with Australia. No land operculates
occur; Endodonta and Charopa are rare, and Hadra has entirely
disappeared, but Pupa and Succinea occur. Carnivorous genera are
represented by Paryphanta, Rhytida, and Rhenea. Anoglypta is a
peculiar section of Helix, while Caryodes, Cystopelta, and Helicarion
are common with Australia. Among the fresh-water Mollusca are a
Gundlachia (see p. 345), and some forms of Amnicola or Hydrobia,
one of which (Potamopyrgus) is common only with New Zealand.
[373]