Name : Zain Rashid

Roll : FA22-BEE-044
Submitted to : Dr.Saeed Ahmed
Course : Probability methods in engineering
Assignment # 2
 Assignment #2

Question 1: Sample Space with Marbles

(a) Describe the sample space when drawing two marbles from a box with
replacement.

Solution: The sample space when drawing two marbles with replacement is {(R,
R), (R, G), (R, B), (G, R), (G, G), (G, B), (B, R), (B, G), (B, B)}, where R denotes red, G
denotes green, and B denotes blue.

(b) Describe the sample space when drawing two marbles from a box without
replacement.

Solution: The sample space when drawing two marbles without replacement is
{(R, G), (R, B), (G, R), (G, B), (B, R), (B, G)}, as the order matters and the drawn
marbles cannot be replaced.

Question 2: Die Rolling Experiment

(a) Determine the sample space of rolling a die until a 6 appears.

Solution: The sample space consists of sequences of die rolls until a 6 appears,
such as {6}, {1, 6}, {2, 4, 6}, etc.
 (b) Define event E as the number of rolls necessary to complete the experiment.
Identify the points in the sample space contained in event E and find the
complement of the union of all such events.

Solution: Event E consists of sequences where the last roll is a 6. The points in the
sample space contained in event E are {6}, {1, 6}, {2, 4, 6}, etc. The complement of
the union of all such events represents sequences where a 6 never appears, which
is an infinite sequence of rolls {1, 2, 3, ...}.

Question 3: Two Dice Experiment

(a) Describe the events EF, E U F, FG, EFS, and EFG where E, F, and G are events
related to two dice outcomes.

Solution:

 EF: The event where the sum of the dice is odd and at least one die lands on 1.
 E U F: The event where the sum of the dice is odd or at least one die lands on 1.
 FG: The event where the sum of the dice is 5 and at least one die lands on 1.
 EFS: The event where the sum of the dice is odd, at least one die lands on 1, and
the sum is 5.
 EFG: The event where the sum of the dice is odd, at least one die lands on 1, and
the sum is 5.
Question 4: Coin Flipping Game

(a) Interpret the sample space defined by the coin flipping game.

Solution: The sample space, S, represents all possible outcomes of the coin
flipping game, where each outcome is a sequence of coin flips. For example, S =
{H, TH, TTH, TTTH, ...}, where H denotes a head and T denotes a tail.
 (b) Define events A wins, B wins, and (A U B)º in terms of the sample space
provided.

Solution:

 A wins: The event where A gets a head before B or C, represented by the set of
outcomes where the first occurrence of H appears before any other head.
 B wins: The event where B gets a head before A or C, represented by the set of
outcomes where the second occurrence of H appears before any other head.
 (A U B)º: The event where neither A nor B wins, represented by the set of
outcomes where all flips result in tails until the last flip.

Question 5: System Components Experiment

(a) Calculate the number of outcomes in the sample space for observing the
status of system components.

Solution: Each component can either be working (1) or failed (0), resulting in 2
possibilities for each component. Since there are 5 components, the total number
of outcomes in the sample space is 2^5 = 32.

(b) Specify outcomes in the event that the system will work based on specific
component conditions.

Solution: The outcomes where the system will work are:

 (1, 1, 0, 0, 0)
 (0, 0, 1, 1, 0)
 (1, 0, 1, 0, 1)
 (1, 1, 1, 1, 1)
 (c) Determine the number of outcomes in the event where components 4 and 5
are both failed.

Solution: There is only one outcome in this event: (x1, x2, x3, 0, 0).

(d) List all outcomes in the event where components 4 and 5 are both failed.

Solution: The outcomes where components 4 and 5 are both failed are:

 (0, 0, 0, 0, 0)
 (1, 0, 0, 0, 0)
 (0, 1, 0, 0, 0)
 (1, 1, 0, 0, 0)
Question 6: Hospital Patient Coding

(a) Provide the sample space for coding incoming patients based on insurance and
condition.

Solution: The sample space consists of all possible combinations of insurance (1

for having insurance, 0 for not having insurance) and condition (g for good, f for
fair, s for serious). For example:

 {1g, 1f, 1s, 0g, 0f, 0s}

(b) Specify outcomes in the event that the patient is in serious condition.

Solution: The outcomes where the patient is in serious condition are: {1s, 0s}

(c) Specify outcomes in the event that the patient is uninsured.

Solution: The outcomes where the patient is uninsured are: {0g, 0f, 0s}

(d) List all outcomes in the event where the patient is uninsured or in serious
condition.

Solution: The outcomes where the patient is uninsured or in serious condition

are: {0g, 0f, 0s, 1s}
Question 7: Job and Political Affiliation Experiment

(a) Determine the total number of outcomes in the sample space.

Solution: The total number of outcomes in the sample space is the product of the
number of outcomes for each individual, which is 2 (blue-collar or white-collar) *
3 (political affiliations) = 6.

(b) Calculate the outcomes in the event that at least one team member is a blue-
collar worker.

Solution: This event includes all outcomes where at least one team member is a
blue-collar worker. Since at least one means one or more, this includes all
outcomes except when all team members are white-collar workers, which is 3
outcomes. Therefore, there are 6 - 3 = 3 outcomes in this event.

(c) Calculate the outcomes in the event that none of the team members consider
themselves Independent.

Solution: This event includes all outcomes where none of the team members are
Independent. Since each team member can have one of the two affiliations
(Republican or Democratic), there are 2^15 = 32768 outcomes in total. The
outcomes where at least one team member is Independent are 2^14 = 16384.
Therefore, the outcomes where none of the team members consider themselves
Independent is 32768 - 16384 = 16384.

Question 8: Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events

(a) Find the probability of either event A or event B occurring.

Solution: Since events A and B are mutually exclusive, the probability of either
event A or event B occurring is the sum of their individual probabilities:
𝑃(𝐴∪𝐵)=𝑃(𝐴)+𝑃(𝐵)=0.3+0.5=0.8.

(b) Calculate the probability of event A occurring but event B not occurring.
Solution: Since events A and B are mutually exclusive, event A occurring means
event B does not occur. Therefore, the probability of A occurring but B not
occurring is simply the probability of event A: 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵′)=𝑃(𝐴)=0.3.

(c) Find the probability of both event A and event B occurring.

Solution: Since events A and B are mutually exclusive, the probability of both
occurring is zero: 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)=0.

Question 9: Credit Card Acceptance

Solution: To find the percentage of customers carrying a credit card that the
establishment will accept, we use the principle of inclusion-exclusion:

𝑃(𝐴∪𝐵)=𝑃(𝐴)+𝑃(𝐵)−𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵).

Given: 𝑃(American Express)=24% 𝑃(VISA)=61% 𝑃(American Express∩VISA)=11%

Using the formula:

𝑃(American Express∪VISA)=24%+61%−11%=74%.

So, 74% of customers carry a credit card that the establishment will accept.

Question 10: Student Accessories Probability

(a) Calculate the probability that a student is wearing a ring or a necklace.

Solution: Let A be the event that a student wears a ring and B be the event that a
student wears a necklace. Given: 𝑃(𝐴)=20100=0.20𝑃(𝐵)=30100=0.30𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)=0
(since no student can wear both a ring and a necklace simultaneously)

The probability of a student wearing either a ring or a necklace is:

𝑃(𝐴∪𝐵)=𝑃(𝐴)+𝑃(𝐵)−𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)=0.20+0.30−0=0.50.
 So, the probability that a student is wearing a ring or a necklace is 50%.

(b) Calculate the probability that a student is wearing a ring and a necklace.

Solution: Since no student wears both a ring and a necklace, the probability of a
student wearing both is zero: 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)=0.

Question 11: Smoking Habits Probability

(a) Determine the percentage of males who smoke neither cigars nor cigarettes.

Solution: Let A be the event that a male smokes cigarettes and B be the event
that a male smokes cigars. Given: 𝑃(𝐴)=28% 𝑃(𝐵)=7% 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)=5%

The percentage of males who smoke neither cigars nor cigarettes is:
100%−(𝑃(𝐴)+𝑃(𝐵)−𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵))=100%−(28%+7%−5%)=100%−30%=70%.So, 70% of
males smoke neither cigars nor cigarettes.

(b) Determine the percentage of males who smoke cigars but not cigarettes.

Solution: The percentage of males who smoke cigars but not cigarettes is given
by: 𝑃(𝐵∩𝐴′)=𝑃(𝐵)−𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)=7%−5%=2%.

Question 12: Elementary School Language Classes

(a) Calculate the probability of a student not being in any language class.

Solution: Let's denote:

 𝑆 as the set of all students.

 𝑆Spanish, 𝑆French, and 𝑆German as the sets of students taking Spanish, French,
and German classes, respectively.
 𝑆Spanish∩French , 𝑆Spanish∩German , and 𝑆French∩German as the sets of
students taking both Spanish and French, both Spanish and German, and both
French and German classes, respectively.
 𝑆Spanish∩French∩German as the set of students taking all three language
classes.

The probability of a student not being in any language class is given by:
𝑃(Not in any language class)=1−𝑃(𝑆Spanish∪𝑆French∪𝑆German).

We'll use the principle of inclusion-exclusion to calculate this probability.

Given: ∣𝑆Spanish∣=28
∣𝑆French∣=26∣𝑆German∣=16∣𝑆Spanish∩French∣=12∣𝑆Spanish∩German∣=4
∣𝑆French∩German∣=6∣𝑆Spanish∩French∩German∣=2Using the inclusion-exclusion
principle: 𝑃(Not in any language class)=1−(28+26+16100−12+4+6100+2100)
=1−(70100−22100+2100)=1−50100=0.5.

So, the probability of a student not being in any language class is 0.5 or 50%.

(b) Calculate the probability that a student is taking exactly one language class.

Solution Using the inclusion-exclusion principle:

𝑃(Exactly one language class)=𝑃(𝑆Spanish∪𝑆French∪𝑆German)−𝑃(𝑆Spanish∩Fren

ch∪𝑆Spanish∩German∪𝑆French∩German).
=(28+26+16100)−(12+4+6100)=(70100)−(22100)=48100=0.48.

So, the probability that a student is taking exactly one language class is 0.48 or
48%.

Question 13: Newspaper Readership

(a) Find the number of people who read only one newspaper.

Solution: To find the number of people who read only one newspaper, we need
to find the sum of the percentages of people who read each newspaper
individually and subtract the percentage of people who read multiple
newspapers.
 Given:

 10% read Newspaper I only.

 8% read Newspaper II only.
 5% read Newspaper III only.
 1% read Newspapers I and II only.
 2% read Newspapers II and III only.
 4% read Newspapers I and III only.

The number of people who read only one newspaper is:

10%+8%+5%−(1%+2%+4%)=23%−7%=16%.

So, 16% of the population reads only one newspaper.

(b) Determine how many people read at least two newspapers.

Solution: To find the number of people who read at least two newspapers, we
need to add the percentages of people who read each combination of
newspapers.

Given:

 1% read Newspapers I and II only.

 2% read Newspapers II and III only.
 4% read Newspapers I and III only.
 1% read all three newspapers.

The number of people who read at least two newspapers is: 1%+2%+4%+1%=8%.

So, 8% of the population reads at least two newspapers.

(c) If I and III are morning papers and II is an evening paper, determine how many
people read at least one morning paper plus an evening paper.
 Solution: To find the number of people who read at least one morning paper plus
an evening paper, we need to consider the readership of each combination of
morning and evening papers.

Given:

 1% read Newspapers I and II only (morning and evening).

 2% read Newspapers II and III only (evening and morning).
 4% read Newspapers I and III only (morning and morning).

The number of people who read at least one morning paper plus an evening
paper is: 1%+2%+4%=7%.

So, 7% of the population reads at least one morning paper plus an evening paper.

(d) Determine how many people do not read any newspapers.

Solution: To find the number of people who do not read any newspapers, we
need to subtract the total percentage of readers from 100%.

Given:

 Total readership is 100% - 5% (read all three newspapers) = 95%.

So, the number of people who do not read any newspapers is 100% - 95% = 5%.

(e) Determine how many people read only one morning newspaper.

Solution: To find the number of people who read only one morning newspaper,
we need to subtract the percentage of people who read more than one morning
newspaper from the total percentage of morning newspaper readers.

Given:

 10% read Newspaper I only.

 1% read Newspapers I and II only.
 4% read Newspapers I and III only.
 2% read all three newspapers.

The number of people who read only one morning newspaper is:
10%−(1%+4%+2%)=10%−7%=3%.

So, 3% of the population reads only one morning newspaper.

Question 14: Verification of Study Data

Solution: To verify the data reported in the study, we need to check if the
numbers provided are consistent with the given conditions. We can use
Proposition 4.4 to analyze the situation.

Given:

 Total number of subscribers, 𝑛=1000.

 Number of professionals, 𝑀=312.
 Number of married persons, 𝑊=470.
 Number of college graduates, 𝐺=525.
 Number of professional college graduates, 𝑀∩𝐺=42.
 Number of married college graduates, 𝑊∩𝐺=147.
 Number of married professionals, 𝑀∩𝑊=86.
 Number of married professional college graduates, 𝑀∩𝑊∩𝐺=25.

According to Proposition 4.4:

𝑃(𝑀∪𝑊∪𝐺)=𝑃(𝑀)+𝑃(𝑊)+𝑃(𝐺)−𝑃(𝑀∩𝑊)−𝑃(𝑀∩𝐺)−𝑃(𝑊∩𝐺)+𝑃(𝑀∩𝑊∩𝐺).
Substituting the given values: 1000=312+470+525−86−42−147+25.

1000=1000.

Since the equation holds true, the numbers reported in the study are correct.

Question 15: Poker Hands Probability

Solution: Given that all poker hands are equally likely (52/5), we can calculate the
probabilities of different types of poker hands:

(a) Probability of being dealt a flush: A flush consists of 5 cards of the same suit.
There are 4 suits in a deck. So, the probability of being dealt a flush is:
𝑃(Flush)=4×(135)525.

(b) Probability of being dealt one pair: A pair occurs when there are two cards of
the same rank and three other cards of different ranks. There are 13 ranks to
choose from and 4 suits for each rank. So, the probability of being dealt one pair
is: 𝑃(One pair)=13×(42)×(123)×43525.

(c) Probability of being dealt two pairs: Two pairs occur when there are two sets
of pairs and one other card. There are 13 ranks to choose from for each pair and
11 remaining ranks for the other card. So, the probability of being dealt two pairs
is: 𝑃(Two pairs)=(132)×(42)×(42)×11×4525.

(d) Probability of being dealt three of a kind: Three of a kind occurs when there
are three cards of the same rank and two other cards of different ranks. There are
13 ranks to choose from and 4 suits for each rank. So, the probability of being
dealt three of a kind is: 𝑃(Three of a kind)=13×(43)×(122)×42525.

(e) Probability of being dealt four of a kind: Four of a kind occurs when there are
four cards of the same rank and one other card. There are 13 ranks to choose
from and 4 suits for each rank. So, the probability of being dealt four of a kind is:
𝑃(Four of a kind)=13×(44)×(481)×4525.

(f) Probability of being dealt a full house: A full house occurs when there are three
cards of one rank and two cards of another rank. There are 13 ranks to choose
from for the three of a kind, and 12 remaining ranks for the pair. So, the
probability of being dealt a full house is: 𝑃(Full house)=(131)×(43)×(121)×(42)525.

(g) Probability of being dealt a straight flush: A straight flush occurs when there
are five consecutive cards of the same suit. There are (101) ways to choose the
starting rank of the straight, and 4 suits for each rank. So, the probability of being
dealt a straight flush is: 𝑃(Straight flush)=(101)×4525.
 (h) Probability of being dealt a royal flush: A royal flush is a straight flush with the
highest-ranking cards (10, J, Q, K, A) of the same suit. There are 4 suits to choose
from. So, the probability of being dealt a royal flush is: 𝑃(Royal flush)=4525.

Question 16: Poker Dice Probabilities

Solution: Given the probabilities for different outcomes in poker dice:

(a) 𝑃(no two alike)=0.0926

(b) 𝑃(one pair)=0.4630

(c) 𝑃(two pair)=0.2315

(d) 𝑃(three alike)=0.1543

(e) 𝑃(full house)=0.0386

(f) 𝑃(four alike)=0.0193

(g) 𝑃(five alike)=0.0008

These probabilities are already calculated based on the outcomes of rolling five
dice simultaneously.

Question 17: Rook Placement Probability

Solution: To compute the probability that none of the rooks can capture any of
the others, we need to place the rooks on the chessboard in such a way that no
two rooks are on the same row or column.
 Given:

 There are 64 squares on a chessboard.

 Each rook must be placed on a different row and column.

The first rook can be placed in any of the 64 squares. The second rook can be
placed in any of the 63 squares that are not in the same row or column as the first
rook. Continuing this process, the probability is calculated as:
𝑃=6464×6364×6264×…×4964.

𝑃=64×63×62×…×49648.

𝑃=64!648×(64−8)!.

𝑃=64!648×56!.

𝑃=64×63×62×…×49648.

𝑃≈12.79.

So, the probability that none of the rooks can capture any of the others is
approximately 0.358.