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Designing and Managing Complex
Systems
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Designing and Managing
Complex Systems
David Moriarty
Academic Press is an imprint of Elsevier
125 London Wall, London EC2Y 5AS, United Kingdom
525 B Street, Suite 1650, San Diego, CA 92101, United States
50 Hampshire Street, 5th Floor, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States
The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, United Kingdom
No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,
electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage
and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Details on how to
seek permission, further information about the Publisher’s permissions policies and our
arrangements with organizations such as the Copyright Clearance Center and the Copyright
Licensing Agency, can be found at our website: www.elsevier.com/permissions.
This book and the individual contributions contained in it are protected under copyright by
the Publisher (other than as may be noted herein).
Notices
Knowledge and best practice in this field are constantly changing. As new research and
experience broaden our understanding, changes in research methods, professional
practices, or medical treatment may become necessary.
Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience and knowledge in
evaluating and using any information, methods, compounds, or experiments described
herein. In using such information or methods they should be mindful of their own safety
and the safety of others, including parties for whom they have a professional responsibility.
To the fullest extent of the law, neither the Publisher nor the authors, contributors, or
editors, assume any liability for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter
of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods,
products, instructions, or ideas contained in the material herein.
ISBN: 978-0-323-91609-7
Part I
Cybernetics
1.1 Control and communication
Part II
Learning from systems
2.1 The simplification imperative
2.1.1 Model making 19
2.1.1.1 Chosen simplification 20
2.1.1.2 Forced simplification 22
2.1.1.3 Entrenched simplification 22
2.1.2 Necessary complexity and systems thinking 24
vii
viii Contents
Part III
Creating and managing systems
3.1 Introduction to part 3
3.1.1 Introduction 133
3.1.2 Definitions 133
3.1.3 Dynamics 134
3.1.4 Building up our understanding of systems 134
Part IV
Case studies
4.1 Challenger and Columbia
4.1.1 Analysis 198
4.10 Netflix
4.10.1 Analysis 248
4.11 Fukushima
4.11.1 Analysis 253
4.14 Alphafold 2
4.14.1 Analysis 265
xii Contents
Part V
Conclusion
5.1 Consilience with the arts
5.1.1 Introduction 269
5.1.2 Simple patterns and complex sounds 269
5.1.3 Complexity in the visual arts 272
5.2 Conclusion
References 279
Glossary and abbreviations 287
Index 291
Author biography
xiii
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Preface
Ashamed lest I appear to myself as a pure theorist, unwilling to touch any practical
task.
Plato, Ep. 7, 328c
Planning a book such as this requires some effort. As well as deciding what you
want to say, you also need to map out how you intend to say it. The first step is to
write an outline. The outline includes a detailed description of the planned
chapters with a summary of their content. By the time I was happy with the
outline, I was on the 14th arrangement of my chapter list. I had spent a great deal
of time chopping and changing the order to try and ensure that the concepts that I
was planning to present would follow a logical order. Learning is, by necessity, a
deliberate and sequential process, and when trying to explain different strands
that will come together later in the book, you have to hope that the reader has
enough faith that it will all make sense in the end even if it is not immediately
clear as they work through the text.
To make matters worse, a book about complexity is bound to contain some
complex ideas. The challenge for the writer is to present these ideas, not only in
some sort of logical order, but also with sufficient detail so that the reader can
mentally build their conceptual “house of cards” as they progress through the
book. It was the search for this logical sequence, and the planning of how much
detail to include that led me to try out 13 different plans before settling on the one
that forms the basis of this book.
Suffice it to say, the field of complexity is a huge, ungainly entity encom-
passing knowledge from disciplines across the entire spectrum of human
knowledge. As the saying goes, there is only one way to eat an elephantdone
bite at a time. However, I would add that there is still a decent chance that it will
be a messy process.
I do not claim to present a unified view of complex systems or a complete
perspective on the subject. I am convinced that both goals are impossible as
things stand now. At the end of this book, there will be no breathing of sighs of
relief because you now have all the tools that you need to manage complex
systems. However, rather than putting in as much as I can about the subject, I
have tried to take a more focused approach.
xv
xvi Preface
those observed in another field, but that the increasing specialization of academic
disciplines means that we are less likely to spot the crossover. My interest in this
idea came initially from a book by the noted evolutionary biologist Edward O.
Wilson. Published in 1998, “Consilience: The Unity of Knowledge” was an
exploration of this idea with particular emphasis on the crossover that occurs
between the sciences and the humanities. While the following book focuses more
on the crossover between the natural sciences and the social sciences, especially
management, Wilson’s work has acted as the catalyst for my exploration of this
subject. His book is a fascinating and illuminating read1.
Consilience is probably a novel word for most people, but its structure may
seem vaguely familiar, perhaps through its similarities to conscience, science, or
silence. Indeed, even as I type, my computer is telling me that it is alien and
unknown, being underlined in red, a sight familiar to inept typists such as me.
However, the seed of this book was planted in my brain when I was first intro-
duced to this concept after reading Edward O. Wilson’s book.
I read Consilience shortly after it was published in 1998. Wilson’s beguiling
and compelling thesis was about the unification of knowledge across fields and
suggested that there were universal dynamics that revealed themselves through
the natural sciences, the social sciences, and through the humanities and that
these dynamics may actually be the same across these diverse disciplines. Like
different religions trying to uncover the same truths about God, the various
spheres of human inquiry were revealing the fundamental dynamics of reality but
were using different language to describe them. Consilience, or, in Edward
Wilson’s terms, the unity of knowledge, suggests that profound insight in one
field of human understanding is likely to be replicated in another area and that
natural sciences, social sciences, and the humanities share more similarities than
most academics would care to admit.
Seeing these similarities becomes progressively harder and harder as our
knowledge of these disciplines deepens and diverges. The growth of human
knowledge necessarily means that academics have more to learn about
increasingly specialized areas of study. Before the Renaissance, educated people
could speak with equal fluency about the natural sciences as well as about
literature, art, and music. A classicist may also be a scientist. Because of the
dearth of source material from which to learn, any knowledge was precious, and
an educated person made less distinction between the academic disciplines.
However, at some point, our access to stored knowledge became easier, and
the depth of that accumulated knowledge reached a certain critical mass whereby
we had to give up on the idea that we could learn it all. Limitations of cognition
meant that we either had to know a little bit about a lot or a lot about a little bit. It
could be argued that this was the inflection point after which we began to lose the
opportunity to see how those areas of study related to each other. For example,
careful microscopic examination of the wood does not allow us to see how the
tree fits into the forest ecosystem.
Preface xix
In his 1959 book “The Two Cultures,” CP Snow argued that the divergence
between the arts and the sciences was stymying the application of knowledge to
solve global problems2. In later works, he also included the social sciences as a
third culture that had also diverged from the first two. Snow argued that it was not
just that academic inquiry had divided into separate fields out of necessity.
Instead, those following a particular academic path (or a particular “culture”)
were also likely to view other cultures with suspicion. Those who study the
humanities might look with disdain at the perceived illiteracy of the natural
scientists. Those in the natural sciences might be appalled at the scientific
ignorance of those in the humanities. Rather than accepting that we necessarily
have to give up certain avenues of study due to limitations of time and cognitive
capacity, the emergence of these separated cultures has also created different
academic factions. Their entrenched suspicion of those outside of their particular
group not only limits transdisciplinary understanding but creates different aca-
demic languages, which make it difficult to understand each other’s worlds even
when the opportunity to collaborate does arise. It is a viewpoint that led directly
to Edward O. Wilson’s book.
At this point, I must hold my hands up and say that I, too, am a product of this
gradual academic pigeon-holing. From age 16 onward, I had to nail my colors to
the flagpole and accept that I would go down the scientific route. Even though I
enjoyed other areas of study, limitations of time and my planned career for the
future meant that there was only so much I could study, and so subjects that may
well have been a help to me, in the end, had to fall by the wayside. Although my
early focus was on the biological and medical sciences, I tried to maintain an
enthusiastic but admittedly amateurish interest in other areas of study, which will
hopefully prove sufficient for this book’s purposes. It will also become clear to
the reader that some of the material on which this book is based is derived from
safety-critical industries. The reason for this is simple. It was academics in the
field of industrial safety that made some of the important breakthroughs in how
we view complex systems as they attempted to find ways to understand and
manage them more successfully. Some of the examples used in the book come
from safety-critical industries such as aviation or nuclear, but whether your or-
ganization is safety-critical or not, the principles are the same. It is not just safety
failures that stop a complex system from working, and the dynamics that cause
commercial failures often have similar roots in the underlying mechanisms of
complex systems.
More importantly, I think we have been hamstrung by the increasing
specialization of academic inquiry and our intransigence to look outside our
narrow area of study to find fruitful help in other disciplines. Throughout history,
human endeavor has led us toward unpicking the complex. Neurobiology,
quantum physics, cosmology, macroeconomicsdno complex system is immune
from our relentless inquiries. But when we consider the broad range of systems
that exhibit complexity, despite the plethora of disciplines through which these
systems are typically investigated, they all have one characteristic in
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sociosque nomine vocare. Nemo autem fuit qui responderet. Illi
decem numero erant, armati omnes. Robinson, qui ex præfecto
acceperat inter captivos tres [254]esse qui non nisi metu coacti
venerant in sceleris societatem, Vendredi gubernatoremque ad eos
mittit ; cùmque illi veniam orâssent impetrâssentque, tum armis
redditis eos, quæ ipse præceperit, sedulò exsequi jubet.
Jam filius ipse per plateas satis sibi cognitas ad patrios penates
provolat, domumque assecutus in patris gaudio trepidantis
[266]amplexus ruit. « Ô pater ! — Ô fili ! » Hæc tantùm ambo eloqui
potuerunt. Muti, trepidi, spirituque intercluso, alter alterius è collo
pendent, donec vis benigna lacrymarum animum utriusque
oppressum levavit.
[1]
RŌBINSON CRŪSŌEUS.
Caput prīmum.