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BlackRock’s Guide to
Fixed-Income Risk
Management
BlackRock’s Guide to
Fixed-Income Risk
Management
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Names: Golub, Bennett W., author. | John Wiley & Sons, publisher.
Title: BlackRock’s guide to fixed-income risk management / Bennett W.
Golub.
Description: Hoboken, New Jersey : Wiley, [2023] | Includes index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2023007920 (print) | LCCN 2023007921 (ebook) | ISBN
9781119884873 (hardback) | ISBN 9781119884897 (adobe pdf) | ISBN
9781119884880 (epub)
Subjects: LCSH: Financial risk management. | Fixed-income securities—Risk
management. | Investments—Risk management.
Classification: LCC HD61 .G644 2023 (print) | LCC HD61 (ebook) | DDC
658.15/5—dc23/eng/20230505
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2023007920
LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2023007921
Foreword xxi
Preface xxiii
Acknowledgments xxxi
SECTION I
An Approach to Fixed-Income Investment Risk Management 1
CHAPTER 1
An Investment Risk Management Paradigm 3
Bennett W. Golub and Rick Flynn
1.1 Introduction 3
1.2 Elements of Risk Management 4
1.3 BlackRock’s Investment and Risk Management Approach 6
1.4 Introduction to the BlackRock Investment Risk Management Paradigm 7
Notes 10
CHAPTER 2
Parametric Approaches to Risk Management 11
Bennett W. Golub and Leo M. Tilman
2.1 Introduction 11
2.2 Measuring Interest Rate Exposure: Analytical Approaches 12
2.2.1 Macaulay and Modified Duration and Convexity 12
2.2.2 Option-Adjusted Framework: OAV, OAS, OAD, OAC 19
2.2.3 Dynamic Nature of Local Risk Measures: Duration and
Convexity Drift 25
2.2.4 Interest Rate Scenario Analysis 26
2.3 Measuring Interest Rate Exposure: Empirical Approaches 30
2.3.1 Coupon Curve Duration 30
2.3.2 Empirical (Implied) Duration 31
2.4 Measuring Yield Curve Exposure 34
2.4.1 Key Rate Durations 34
vii
viii CONTENTS
CHAPTER 3
Modeling Yield Curve Dynamics 59
Bennett W. Golub and Leo M. Tilman
3.1 Probability Distributions of Systematic Risk Factors 59
3.2 Principal Component Analysis: Theory and Applications 61
3.2.1 Introduction 61
3.2.2 Principal Components Analysis 65
3.2.3 The First Principal Component and the Term Structure of
Volatility 69
3.2.4 Example: Historical Steepeners and Flatteners of the US
Treasury Curve 73
3.3 Probability Distributions of Interest Rate Shocks 75
Notes 79
CHAPTER 4
Portfolio Risk: Estimation and Decomposition 81
Amandeep Dhaliwal and Tom Booker
4.1 Introduction 81
4.2 Portfolio Volatility and Factor Structure 83
4.3 Covariance Matrix Estimation 85
4.3.1 Weighting of Historical Data 86
4.3.1.1 Exponential Decay Weighting 86
4.3.1.2 Alternative Weighting Schemes and Stress Scenarios 87
4.3.1.3 Enhancing Volatility Responsiveness Dynamically 88
4.3.2 Asynchronicity 89
4.3.2.1 Overlapping Covariance Matrix 90
4.3.2.2 Newey-West Estimation 90
4.3.3 Factor Model Structure: Generalizations 91
4.3.3.1 Optimization of the Error-Bias Trade-Off 91
4.3.3.2 Misspecification and Omitted Covariation 92
4.3.4 Covariance Matrix Estimation: Summary and
Recommendations 92
4.4 Ex Ante Risk and VaR Methodologies 93
4.4.1 VaR Estimation Approaches 94
Contents ix
CHAPTER 5
Market-Driven Scenarios: An Approach for Plausible Scenario Construction 125
Bennett W. Golub, David Greenberg, and Ronald Ratcliffe
5.1 Introduction 125
5.2 Implied Stress Testing Framework 127
5.2.1 Market-Driven Scenario Framework 127
5.2.2 Scenario Likelihood 128
5.2.3 From Likelihood to Probability 129
5.2.4 Decomposing the Scenario Z-Score 131
5.2.5 Specifying a Covariance Matrix 133
5.3 Developing Useful Scenarios 134
5.3.1 Scenario Definition 134
5.4 A Market-Driven Scenario Example: Brexit 136
5.4.1 Describing Different Brexit Scenario Outcomes 136
5.4.2 Identifying Key Policy Shocks in Soft Brexit Scenario 137
5.5 Conclusion 142
Appendix: Decomposition of Scenario Z-Score 143
Notes 143
CHAPTER 6
A Framework to Quantify and Price Geopolitical Risks 145
Catherine Kress, Carl Patchen, Ronald Ratcliffe, Eric Van Nostrand, and Kemin Yang
6.1 Introduction 145
6.2 Setting the Scene 146
6.2.1 Short and Sharp 147
6.2.2 Shades of Gray 148
x CONTENTS
CHAPTER 7
Liquidity Risk Management 163
Bennett W. Golub, Philip Sommer, Stefano Pasquali, Michael Huang, Kristen
Walters, and Nikki Azznara
7.1 Introduction 163
7.2 A Brief History of Liquidity Risk Management 164
7.3 A Fund Liquidity Risk Framework 166
7.4 Asset Liquidity 166
7.4.1 Importance of Data Modeling for Liquidity Risk Management 166
7.4.2 Asset Liquidity: Days-to-Liquidate 168
7.4.3 Asset Liquidity: Corporate Bond Transaction Costs (T-Costs) 169
7.5 Redemption Risk 169
7.5.1 Managing Redemptions and Outflow Risk 170
7.6 Liquidity Stress Testing 170
7.7 Extraordinary Measures 171
7.8 Fixed-Income Data Availability Limitations 171
7.8.1 Modeling Asset Liquidity 173
7.8.2 Modeling Redemption-at-Risk 177
7.8.3 Modeling Liquidity Optimization 178
7.9 Conclusion 181
Notes 181
CHAPTER 8
Using Portfolio Optimization Techniques to Manage Risk 183
Alex Ulitsky, Bennett W. Golub, Leo M. Tilman, and Jack Hattem
8.1 Risk Measurement Versus Risk Management 183
8.2 Typical Fixed-Income Hedges 185
8.3 Parametric Hedging Techniques 187
8.4 Generalized Approach to Hedging 189
8.4.1 Hedging as Constrained Portfolio Optimization 189
Contents xi
CHAPTER 9
Risk Governance 219
Bennett W. Golub
9.1 Introduction 219
9.2 Risk Scan Standard Framework 219
9.3 Risk and Performance Target (RPT) Framework 221
9.4 Governance 223
Notes 224
CHAPTER 10
Risk-Return Awareness and Behavioral Finance 225
Emily Haisley and Nicky Lai
10.1 Introduction 225
10.2 Portfolio and Risk Manager Partnership 226
10.3 Behavioral Risk Management for Fixed Income 227
10.4 Decision-Making Analytics 229
10.4.1 Loss Aversion 229
10.4.1.1 The Disposition Bias 230
10.4.1.2 The Endowment Effect 232
10.5 Investment Process 235
10.5.1 Leveraging the Wisdom of the Crowds 236
10.5.2 Bolster System II Thinking 238
10.5.3 Facilitate Continuous Learning 239
10.6 Conclusion 241
Notes 242
xii CONTENTS
CHAPTER 11
Performance Attribution 243
Reade Ryan and Carol Yu
11.1 Introduction 243
11.2 Brinson Attribution and Beyond 244
11.2.1 Comparing Market Value Brinson Attribution to Beta-Adjusted
Attribution 250
11.3 Factor-Based Attribution 252
11.4 Equity Fundamental Factor-Based Attribution 256
Notes 258
CHAPTER 12
Performance Analysis 259
Mark Paltrowitz, Mark Temple-Jones, Viola Dunne, and Christopher Calingo
12.1 Introduction 259
12.2 Performance Governance 260
12.3 Performance Metrics 260
12.3.1 Active Performance Measurement 260
12.3.1.1 Alpha Target Ratio 261
12.3.1.2 Weighted Peer Percentile 262
12.3.1.3 Strengths and Weaknesses of the ATR and Weighted Peer
Percentile 262
12.3.1.4 Alpha Dollars 263
12.3.1.5 Strengths and Weaknesses of Alpha Dollars 264
12.3.2 Index Performance Metrics 265
12.3.2.1 Direct Tracking Basis Points (BP) 265
12.3.2.2 Strengths and Weaknesses of Direct Tracking BP 265
12.4 Conclusion 266
Notes 266
CHAPTER 13
Evolving the Risk Management Paradigm 267
Bennett W. Golub, Michael Huang, and Joe Buehlmeyer
13.1 Introduction 267
13.2 Traditional Buy-Side Risk Management Framework 268
13.3 Evolving the IRMP: In Pursuit of Investment Risk Management at Scale 268
13.4 Risk Governance 270
13.5 Supporting Risk Governance Through Technology 270
13.6 Implementing a Risk Governance Framework Through Aladdin 271
13.7 Aladdin’s Risk Radar Example 271
13.7.1 Aladdin’s Risk Radar Overview 271
13.7.2 Rules and Portfolio Subscriptions 272
13.7.3 Exceptions and Tasks 272
13.7.4 Exception Classification 274
13.7.5 Risk Exception Reporting and Audit 274
13.7.6 What Is Next for Technology-Enabled Investment Risk
Oversight? 274
13.8 Conclusion 276
Notes 276
Contents xiii
SECTION II
Fixed-Income Risk Management—Then and Now 277
CHAPTER 14
The Modernization of the Bond Market 279
Daniel Veiner, Stephen Laipply, Carolyn Weinberg, Samara Cohen, Vasiliki
Pachatouridi, and Hui Sien Koay
14.1 Charting the Evolution of Bond Markets 279
14.1.1 The Current State of Bond Market Liquidity 279
14.1.2 The Modernization of Bond Market Structure 281
14.1.3 Continued Growth in Electronic Bond Trading 283
14.2 The Development of an Index-Based Ecosystem 285
14.2.1 Fixed-Income ETFs: Continued Strong Growth and Adoption 285
14.2.2 Portfolio Trading and Fixed-Income ETFs 286
14.2.3 Continued Growth in Bond Index Derivatives Markets 288
14.2.4 Fixed-Income ETF Options 288
14.3 Implications for Investing, Portfolio Management, and Risk
Management 289
14.3.1 Use Cases for Fixed-Income ETFs and Other Index Exposures 289
14.4 The Future State of Portfolio Construction 290
14.4.1 Portfolio Engineering and Construction 290
14.5 Conclusion 290
Notes 291
CHAPTER 15
The LIBOR Transition 293
Jack Hattem
15.1 Introduction 293
15.2 Implications to Portfolio and Risk Management 295
15.3 Shift from LIBOR to SOFR 295
15.4 Risk Management Impact and Coordination 297
15.5 Reflections on a Benchmark Reforms 298
Notes 300
CHAPTER 16
Derivatives Reform: The Rise of Swap Execution Facilities and Central Counterparties 301
Eileen Kiely and Jack Hattem
16.1 The Call for Change: 2008 Global Financial Crisis 301
16.1.1 SEFs 302
16.1.2 CCPs 302
16.2 The Value of Derivatives in Fixed-Income Portfolios 302
16.3 Trading Fixed-Income Derivatives: The Rise of SEFs 304
16.4 Clearing Fixed-Income Derivatives: The Rise of CCPs 305
16.5 CCP Risk Mitigation Techniques 306
16.5.1 CCP Risk Mitigation Techniques: What Could Go Wrong? 308
16.6 The Call for Change: Market Participants Ask for Stronger CCPs 308
16.7 Conclusion 311
Notes 311
xiv CONTENTS
SECTION III
Lessons from the Credit Crisis and Coronavirus Pandemic 313
CHAPTER 17
Risk Management Lessons Worth Remembering from the Credit Crisis of 2007–2009 315
Bennett W. Golub and Conan Crum
17.1 Introduction 315
17.2 The Paramount Importance of Liquidity 316
17.2.1 Price ≠ Intrinsic Value Unless Special Conditions Hold 317
17.2.2 Cash and Cash Flow Are the Only Robust Sources of Liquidity 319
17.2.3 Complexity and Opacity Matter More Than You Think 321
17.2.4 Collateralization Can Be a Two-Edged Sword 322
17.2.5 Liquidity Is a Common Risk Factor 324
17.3 Investors in Securitized Products Need to Look Past the Data to the
Underlying Behavior of the Assets 326
17.4 Certification Is Useless During Systemic Events 331
17.5 Market Risk Can Change Dramatically 332
17.6 The Changing Nature of Market Risk 336
17.7 By the Time a Crisis Strikes, It’s Too Late to Start Preparing 337
17.8 Conclusion 338
Notes 338
CHAPTER 18
Reflections on Buy-Side Risk Management After (or Between) the Storms 341
Bennett W. Golub and Conan Crum
18.1 Introduction 341
18.2 Risk Management Requires Institutional Buy-In 341
18.3 The Alignment and Management of Institutional Interests 342
18.4 Getting Risk Takers to Think Like Risk Managers 345
18.5 Independent Risk Management Organizations 345
18.6 Clearly Define Fiduciary Obligations 347
18.7 Bottom-Up Risk Management 348
18.8 Risk Models Require Constant Vigilance 349
18.9 Risk Management Does Not Mean Risk Avoidance 350
Notes 350
CHAPTER 19
Lessons Worth Considering from the COVID-19 Crisis 353
Barbara Novick, Joanna Cound, Kate Fulton, and Winnie Pun
19.1 Introduction 353
19.2 Background 354
19.3 Core Principles Underpinning Recommendations 354
19.4 March 2020: Capital Markets Highlights and Official Sector
Intervention 355
19.5 COVID-19 Lessons: What Worked and What Needs to be Addressed 357
Contents xv
Bibliography 373
Index 391
Frequently Used Abbreviations
xvii
xviii FREQUENTLY USED ABBREVIATIONS
Proletarians
During the thirties members of the peasant and labor groups were
the subject of a literary movement which produced the proletarian
novel. This type of novel is generally unsatisfactory for the study of
group behavior patterns considered here since its emphasis is much
more sociological than political. There are some exceptions,
however. The Iron Heel, Man’s Fate, and In Dubious Battle have
been called proletarian novels. Other proletarian novels not included
in this study were written by Dos Passos, Farrell, Shaw, and Silone.
The two novels by Malraux and Steinbeck straddle the line between
the political and the proletarian. This is also true of A Wind Is Rising,
which came after the movement as such had spent itself but which
concentrated upon one of its favorite subjects, the southern
sharecropper. Some of the proletarian novels have political
overtones. Sherwood Anderson’s Beyond Desire (1932), which was
meant as his contribution to the proletarian cause, followed the
career of Red Oliver as a Communist labor organizer in southern
textile mills. Like Jim Nolan, he is shot to death. But this novel does
not reveal as fully as Steinbeck’s book the part of the Communist
Party’s labor strategy in its overall plan. The men of Liam
O’Flaherty’s The Informer are proletarians, members of the Irish
Republican Army fighting the British. But in its most common form,
the proletarian novel stopped just short of political action. It would
present in dramatic fashion the conditions under which the members
of this actually diverse group lived. If they took positive action, it was
usually to join a union or the Communist Party. Steinbeck’s The
Grapes of Wrath shows the broad scale social delineation the
proletarian novel permits; it also shows clearly that though its
ultimate aim may be political, its primary textual emphasis is not.
International Communism
Any discussion of group political behavior would be incomplete
without mentioning international Communism. Since Stalin’s
ascendancy over his domestic opponents in the late 1920s, the
Communist movement has increasingly become an instrument of
Russian national policy rather than a worldwide movement receiving
help from the Soviets. Concomitantly, Communism and Communists
in England, the United States, Germany, France, Greece, and China
have much in common. An indication of the way in which this force
cuts across national lines is the fact that nearly a quarter of all the
novels in this study deal in varying degrees with Communism. Even
though the behavior of this group is theoretically based upon
reinterpreted Marxism, it contains definite patterns which relate to
Party discipline, strategy, and tactics which seem organizational
rather than ideological. One of the primary ones is the prohibition of
original political thought outside the limits laid down in the Kremlin.
Deviationism is a cardinal sin which destroys Nicolas Rubashov and
endangers Rocco de Donatis. In a pious attempt to avoid such error,
Dr. Jane Sparling in The Grand Design immediately consults Elmer
Weeks, head of the American Communist Party, to discover the
proper attitude when Hitler invades Russia. Another pattern is the
interpretation—and use—of every action not in terms of its
immediate significance, but of its place in the overall plan. The
strikes of miners, apple-pickers, or pecan-shellers are not local
disputes between management and labor but battles in the class
struggle to be used to educate the masses and provide useful
martyrs. But all the while, the pretense that Communism is an
international movement must be maintained. In Adventures of a
Young Man this view is purveyed to West Virginia miners:
Less Minot got up and said that the American Miners was affiliated with
organizations all over the country that was working to overthrow the rotten
capitalistic system that kept the working class down to starvation wages
with guns and grafting officers of the law, and that if that was being a red,
he was glad to be called a red, and as for the Rooshians, he didn’t know
much about them, but so far as he could hear tell the working class had
overthrown its capitalistic oppressors over there under the leadership of
the Marxist-Leninist Communist Party and was running the country in their
own interests and was ready to help the workers in other countries to do
the same.
In Darkness at Noon this diversion of Communism from the goal of
international revolution to the service of the Russian state is clothed
in a theory meant to make it both logical and necessary: when world
revolution did not follow the Russian Revolution, it was resolved that
the primary task was to preserve “the Bastion” in order to protect
gains already made and to maintain a base for later advances.
Therefore in each country where its activities are revealed, the
Communist Party is found to act primarily in the interests of the
Soviet Union.
The use of racial minority groups has not been neglected by the
Communists. Several recent American novels have touched upon
this subject. The most vivid and powerful is Ralph Ellison’s The
Invisible Man (1947). The book’s nameless protagonist flees the
South dogged by discrimination and bad luck. He is drawn into The
Brotherhood (a euphemism for the Communist Party) and rises
rapidly to become “Spokesman” for the Harlem district. Despite
appreciable gains he has made in membership, the young Negro
leader is shifted downtown. A bloody riot makes it clear to him that
the change in the Party line is deliberate. He finally understands the
full meaning of his ideological tutor’s words, “your members will have
to be sacrificed.” His break with the Party is basically the same as
Glenn Spotswood’s. But here the emotional involvement and
subsequent disillusionment are much greater. Farrell makes the
same point in Yet Other Waters through the speech of a Socialist
Negro labor leader directed at Communists who have come to
disrupt a meeting. In a long passage completely italicized for
emphasis he says, “You are trying to manipulate and betray my
people. You are no friend of the black man or the white man. You are
the cancer of the working class. You are the architects of defeat.”
War, no less than domestic conflict, is seen as an opportunity to
extend Communism which transcends the immediate national
issues. The Spanish Civil War was both a skirmish and a testing
ground in which the full extent of Russian intervention was
concealed to prevent direct reprisals. In The Grand Design Jed
Farrington tells Georgia Washburn: “In the short term war we’re
allied to the Squire in the White House and his big business friends
but in the long-term war they are our most dangerous enemies.” The
subjugation of satellite party interests to Soviet interests is made
clear in The Crack in the Column by Moscow-trained Zachariades,
who arrives to deliver his post-mortem on the unsuccessful EAM
uprisings: “Our friends want no more premature, independent
revolutions. They have Italy and Palestine to think of.” Even the
details of authorized revolutions are foreseen and attended to.
Leaders like Zachariades and Kyo Gisors in Man’s Fate are made to
order. Hemingway’s Robert Jordan reflects about the Moscow-
trained, bogus peasant leader of the Loyalists, Valentin Gomez: “You
had to have these peasant leaders quickly in this sort of war.... You
couldn’t wait for the real Peasant Leader to arrive and he might have
too many peasant characteristics when he did. So you had to
manufacture one.” These novels illustrate Communism’s diversity of
character and tactics and the rigid discipline it imposes upon its
followers under pain of expulsion or death.