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Antique Daily 12 Jul 24
Antique Daily 12 Jul 24
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
12 July 2024
ANTIQUE’S MORNING PRESENTATION
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
Market Snapshot
Global Indices Closing % Chg % YTD
QUARTERLY RESULTS REVIEW
Dow Jones 39,754 0.1 5.5
Tata Consultancy Services NASDAQ 18,283 (2.0) 21.8
Strong quarter, but demand environment remains unchanged FTSE 8,223 0.4 6.3
CAC 7,627 0.7 1.1
JTL Industries DAX 18,535 0.7 10.6
Higher volume, backward integration, product mix Russia 1,152 (0.2) 6.3
improvement to drive growth Bovespa 1,28,294 0.8 (4.4)
Nikkei 42,224 0.9 26.2
COMPANY UPDATE Hang Seng 17,832 2.1 4.6
Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Shanghai Composite 2,970 1.1 (0.2)
Geared for profitable growth; upgrade to BUY Indian Indices Closing % Chg % YTD
MONTHLY UPDATE Sensex 79,897 (0.0) 10.6
Nifty 24,316 (0.0) 11.9
Pharmaceuticals MSCI India 1,091 (0.0) 18.4
IPM reports ~9% growth for 1QFY25, aided by recovery in CNX Midcap 57,148 0.4 23.7
acute segment BSE Smallcap 54,086 0.6 26.7
n The Nikkei 225 Index jumped 0.94% to close at 42,224 on Thursday, reaching
a new all-time high as surging artificial intelligence-related chip stocks and Volumes USD bn % Chg
expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts lifted the market further. The broader Cash (NSE + BSE) 19.1 9.5
Topix Index also gained 0.69% to 2,929, the highest in 34 years. In the US,
the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notched new record highs as well, with FII F&O Stock Fut Index Fut
major US technology firms leading the advance. On the economic front, data Net ($ mn) (604) (260.8)
showed that core machinery orders in Japan, a leading indicator of capital OI (%) 0.3 (4.1)
spending in the coming six to nine months, unexpectedly declined in May.
ADR/GDR Gainers Last % Chg
Sector & Corporate News Infosys 19.9 2.7
Wipro 6.5 1.6
n Hindustan Zinc gets power supply from Serentica 180 MW solar project.
Dr Reddy 78.7 0.7
Vedanta group firm Hindustan Zinc on Thursday said it has started receiving
power supply from Serentica Renewables. The renewable energy is being SBI 102.0 0.4
used for Hindustan Zinc's operational business units in Rajasthan. "On Global
Energy Independence Day, Hindustan Zinc… announced the commencement ADR/GDR Losers Last % Chg
of the first phase of renewable energy integration from Serentica Renewables," ICICI Bank 29.3 (0.5)
the Vedanta group firm said in a statement. Reliance 75.9 (0.3)
HDFC 60.3 (0.1)
n Vedanta to raise up to INR 10 bn via debentures. Mining conglomerate
Vedanta Ltd on Thursday said it plans to raise up to INR 10 bn through the
issuance of debentures. In a regulatory filing the company said, its directors
have approved the allotment of 1,00,000 non-convertible debentures
aggregating to INR 1,000 crore on a private placement basis.
Bulk Deals
Security Name Client Name Buy/Sell Qty Price Value (mn)
Godrej Properties Ltd R K N Enterprises Sell 3986400 3313.90 13,211
Godrej Agrovet Limited R K N Enterprises Sell 4146156 800.05 3,317
Gokaldas Exports Limited SBI Mutual Fund Sell 4332080 950.00 4,115
The Great Eastern Shippin HRTI Private Limited Buy 7,88,633 1468.71 1,158
Godrej Agrovet Limited Jamshyd Naoroji Godrej Buy 1036539 800.05 829
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 12 July 2024 | 3
Source: Bloomberg
Sensex FII Provisional Flows (INR bn) DII Provisional Flows (INR bn)
290 155
75000
230 130
65000 105 c
170
80
55000 110 55
45000 50 30
(10) 5
35000 (20)
(70) (45)
25000
Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-23 Jul-24 (130) (70)
Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-23 Jul-24 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-23 Jul-24
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Dec-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Jun-24
Mar-23
Mar-24
10
4-Apr
18-Apr
11-Jul
13-Jun
27-Jun
2-May
16-May
30-May
21-Mar
0
WPI Inflation (%) 10 Yr Yield (%) 05-Jul 08-Jul 09-Jul 10-Jul 11-Jul
Source: Bloomberg
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 12 July 2024 | 4
EBITDA 1,66,850 1,71,640 -2.8% 1,49,980 11.2% 5,92,590 6,42,960 7,03,459 7,72,462 8,59,462
PBT 1,62,310 1,68,490 -3.7% 1,49,980 8.2% 5,69,070 6,29,550 6,78,867 7,58,638 8,40,292
Source: Company, Antique
Exhibit 1: Better than expected all-round growth across industries and markets
8%
3.2%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
4%
1.6%
1.2%
1.1%
0.3%
4.8%
4.1%
4.2%
4.0%
4.0%
3.5%
3.9%
0.6%
0.1%
0%
-6.9%
-0.2%
-1.3%
-4%
-8%
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
3QFY24
4QFY24
1QFY25
CC organic revenue growth QoQ
Source: Company; Antique
Exhibit 2: EBIT margin was down 130 bps QoQ impacted by wage hikes
28%
27%
26%
25%
24.0%
23.6%
24%
25.0%
25.1%
26.2%
26.6%
26.8%
25.5%
25.6%
25.0%
25.0%
23.1%
24.5%
24.5%
23.2%
24.3%
25.0%
26.0%
24.7%
23%
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
Q1FY25
EBIT Margins
Source: Company; Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 12 July 2024 | 6
13,000
11,000
9,000
7,000
11,300
10,000
10,200
11,200
13,200
6,800
9,200
8,100
7,600
7,600
8,200
8,100
7,800
8,100
8,300
6,000
8,900
6,900
8,600
5,000
3,000
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
3QFY24
4QFY24
1QFY25
Deal wins Aveage deal size
Source: Company; Antique
Exhibit 4: TCS is trading at 27x one-year forward P/E multiple, near mean +1 SD levels
and…
35
30
25
20
15
10 Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Jan-23
Jul-23
Jan-24
Jul-24
PE 10Y Avg Mean + 1SD
Mean + 2 SD Mean-1SD 5Y Avg
Source: Bloomberg; Antique
Exhibit 5: ...is trading at 30% premium to Nifty vs. 10-year average of 20%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jul-24
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jan-24
TCS premium to Nifty 10Y Average
Source: Bloomberg; Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 12 July 2024 | 8
Financials
Profit and loss account (INR mn) Cash flow statement (INR mn)
Year-ended March 31 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e Year-ended March 31 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
Net Revenue 22,54,580 24,08,930 25,77,664 28,11,990 30,81,276 PBT 5,69,070 6,29,550 6,78,867 7,58,638 8,40,292
Op. Expenses 16,61,990 17,65,970 18,74,205 20,39,528 22,21,814 Depreciation & amortization 50,220 49,850 51,172 55,824 61,170
EBITDA 5,92,590 6,42,960 7,03,459 7,72,462 8,59,462 (Inc)/Dec in working capital (44,450) (33,420) 60,666 (3,142) (4,944)
Depreciation 50,220 49,850 51,172 55,824 61,170 Tax paid (1,29,660) (1,24,890) (1,72,982) (1,93,453) (2,14,274)
EBIT 5,42,370 5,93,110 6,52,287 7,16,638 7,98,292 Other operating Cash Flow (158) (51,770) (1,74,802) (1,95,013) (2,15,914)
Other income 26,700 36,440 26,580 42,000 42,000 CF from operating activities 4,45,022 4,69,320 4,42,921 4,22,854 4,66,329
Reported PBT 5,69,070 6,29,550 6,78,867 7,58,638 8,40,292 Capital expenditure (25,320) (22,020) 23,770 23,770 23,770
Tax 1,46,040 1,58,980 1,72,982 1,93,453 2,14,274 Inc/(Dec) in investments (11,49,530) (14,20,090) - - -
Reported PAT 4,23,030 4,70,570 5,05,885 5,65,186 6,26,018 Others 11,42,070 14,69,450
Minority Int./Profit (loss) From Asso. 1,560 1,910 1,820 1,560 1,640 CF from investing activities (32,780) 27,340 23,770 23,770 23,770
Net Profit 4,21,470 4,68,660 5,04,065 5,63,626 6,24,378 Inc/(Dec) in share capital (41,740) (2,10,050) - - -
Adjusted PAT 4,21,470 4,68,660 5,04,065 5,63,626 6,24,378 Dividend Paid (4,29,250) (2,68,320) (3,47,009) (3,81,710) (4,16,411)
Adjusted EPS (INR) 115.2 128.5 139.3 155.8 172.6 CF from financing activities (4,70,990) (4,78,370) (3,47,009) (3,81,710) (4,16,411)
Net cash flow (58,748) 18,290 1,19,682 64,915 73,689
Balance sheet (INR mn) Opening balance 1,29,970 76,312 95,242 2,14,924 2,79,839
Year-ended March 31 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e Closing balance 76,312 95,242 2,14,924 2,79,839 3,53,528
Share Capital 3,660 3,620 3,620 3,620 3,620
Reserves & Surplus 9,21,760 9,22,500 10,79,556 12,61,472 14,69,439 Growth indicators (%)
Networth 9,25,420 9,26,120 10,83,176 12,65,092 14,73,059 Year-ended March 31 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
Debt 76,880 80,210 80,210 80,210 80,210 Revenue 17.6 6.8 7.0 9.1 9.6
Minority Interest 7,820 8,300 8,300 8,300 8,300 EBITDA 11.7 8.5 9.4 9.8 11.3
Capital Employed 10,10,120 10,14,630 11,71,686 13,53,602 15,61,569 Adj PAT 10.0 11.2 7.6 11.8 10.8
Net Fixed Assets 1,15,950 1,91,100 75,613 61,969 47,018 Adj EPS 11.2 11.6 8.4 11.8 10.8
Goodwill 48,730 44,990 44,990 44,990 44,990
Investments 4,03,870 3,65,230 3,65,230 3,65,230 3,65,230 Valuation (x)
Non Current Investments 2,660 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 Year-ended March 31 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
Current Investments 4,01,210 3,62,420 3,62,420 3,62,420 3,62,420 P/E (x) 34.1 30.5 28.2 25.2 22.7
Current Assets, Loans & Adv. 8,94,222 8,89,482 10,46,693 11,63,724 12,97,304 P/BV (x) 15.7 15.7 13.4 11.5 9.9
Debtors 4,99,540 5,35,770 5,73,298 6,25,415 6,85,306 EV/EBITDA (x) 25.2 23.3 21.1 19.1 17.1
Cash & Bank balance 76,312 95,242 2,14,924 2,79,839 3,53,528 EV/Sales (x) 6.6 6.2 5.8 5.3 4.8
Loans & advances and others 3,18,370 2,58,470 2,58,470 2,58,470 2,58,470 Dividend Yield (%) 2.9 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4
Current Liabilities & Provisions 4,47,570 4,71,090 5,69,284 6,18,258 6,73,207
Liabilities 26,840 25,100 25,100 25,100 25,100
Financial ratios
Provisions 4,20,730 4,45,990 5,44,184 5,93,158 6,48,107
Year-ended March 31 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
RoE (%) 45.9 50.6 50.2 48.0 45.6
Net Current Assets 4,46,652 4,18,392 4,77,408 5,45,465 6,24,098
RoCE (%) 56.7 62.2 62.1 60.1 57.6
Application of Funds 10,10,120 10,14,630 11,71,686 13,53,602 15,61,569
Asset/T.O (x) 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.8 4.8
Per share data Net Debt/Equity (x) (0.4) (0.4) (0.5) (0.4) (0.4)
Year-ended March 31 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
No. of shares (mn) 3,699 3,699 3,699 3,699 3,699
Margins (%)
Diluted no. of shares (mn) 3,699 3,699 3,699 3,699 3,699
Year-ended March 31 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
EBITDA Margin (%) 26.3 26.7 27.3 27.5 27.9
BVPS (INR) 250.2 250.4 292.8 342.0 398.2
EBIT Margin (%) 24.1 24.6 25.3 25.5 25.9
CEPS (INR) 127.9 140.7 150.6 167.9 185.8
PAT Margin (%) 18.5 19.2 19.4 19.7 20.0
DPS (INR) 115 73 80 88 96
Source: Company Antique
Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 12 July 2024 | 9
Operating metrics 1QFY25 1QFY24 YoY (%) 4QFY24 QoQ (%) FY25TD FY24TD YoY (%)
Sales volume (tons) 85,674 77,342 10.8 81,913 4.6 85,674 77,342 10.8
Blended realization per ton (INR) 60,156 65,269 (7.8) 56,882 5.8 60,156 65,269 (7.8)
Blended EBITDA per ton (INR) 4,632 4,594 0.8 4,485 3.3 4,632 4,594 0.8
Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 12 July 2024 | 11
Financials
Profit and loss account (INR mn) Cash flow statement (INR mn)
Year ended 31 Mar FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e Year ended 31 Mar FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
Net Revenue 15,499 20,402 27,336 36,765 43,685 PBT 1,226 1,502 2,259 3,030 3,732
Op. Expenses 14,206 18,880 25,097 33,655 39,911 Depreciation & amortization 43 56 83 163 179
EBITDA 1,294 1,522 2,238 3,110 3,774 Interest expense 63 51 52 121 106
Gross Profit 1,901 3,411 3,268 4,274 5,024 (Inc)/Dec in working capital (989) (2,408) (1,697) (2,546) (1,354)
Depreciation 43 56 83 163 179 Tax paid (325) (372) (571) (767) (944)
EBIT 1,251 1,466 2,155 2,947 3,595 Less: Interest/Div. Income Recd. (49) (87) (156) (205) (242)
Other income 49 87 156 205 242 CF from operating activities (31) (1,258) (30) (203) 1,477
Interest Exp. 63 51 52 121 106 Capital expenditure (189) (531) (1,100) (800) (300)
Extra Ordinary Items -gain/(loss) (11) - - - - Inc/(Dec) in investments (37) 104 - - -
Reported PBT 1,226 1,502 2,259 3,030 3,732 Add: Interest/Div. Income Recd. 39 87 156 205 242
Tax 325 372 571 767 944 CF from investing activities (188) (341) (944) (595) (58)
Reported PAT 901 1,130 1,687 2,263 2,788 Inc/(Dec) in share capital 34 185 - - -
Net Profit 901 1,130 1,687 2,263 2,788 Inc/(Dec) in debt (400) (345) 274 1,037 (340)
Adjusted PAT 912 1,130 1,687 2,263 2,788 Dividend Paid (80) (95) (97) (245) (283)
Adjusted EPS (INR) 5.2 6.4 9.5 12.8 15.7 Others 1,178 2,382 (0) 0 (751)
CF from financing activities 732 2,127 178 792 (1,374)
Balance sheet (INR mn) Net cash flow 514 529 (796) (7) 45
Year ended 31 Mar FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e Opening balance 18 531 1,060 264 258
Share Capital 169 354 354 354 354 Closing balance 531 1,060 264 258 303
Reserves & Surplus 3,902 7,394 9,037 11,176 13,787
Networth 4,071 7,748 9,391 11,530 14,141 Growth indicators (%)
Debt 547 202 477 1,514 1,173 Year ended 31 Mar FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
Net deferred Tax liabilities 42 19 19 19 19 Revenue 14.4 31.6 34.0 34.5 18.8
Capital Employed 4,660 7,968 9,886 13,062 15,333 EBITDA 44.7 17.6 47.1 38.9 21.4
Gross Fixed Assets 908 1,423 2,383 3,333 3,583 Adj PAT 49.4 23.9 49.3 34.2 23.2
Accumulated Depreciation 254 310 393 557 736 Adj EPS 49.4 23.9 49.3 34.2 23.2
Capital work in progress 44 60 200 50 100
Net Fixed Assets 698 1,173 2,190 2,827 2,948 Valuation (x)
Investments 162 58 58 58 58 Year ended 31 Mar FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
Non Current Investments 162 58 58 58 58 P/E (x) 43.6 35.2 23.6 17.6 14.3
Current Assets, Loans & Adv. 4,775 7,203 8,325 11,100 13,421 P/BV (x) 9.8 5.1 4.2 3.4 2.8
Inventory 1,677 1,504 2,369 3,187 3,783 EV/EBITDA (x) 30.8 25.6 17.9 13.2 10.8
Debtors 1,412 1,927 2,546 3,425 4,309 EV/Sales (x) 2.5 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.8
Cash & Bank balance 531 1,060 264 258 303 Dividend Yield (%) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4
Loans & advances and others 1,154 2,712 3,145 4,230 5,027
Current Liabilities & Provisions 975 467 688 922 1,093
Financial ratios
Liabilities 948 445 655 878 1,041
Year ended 31 Mar FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
RoE (%) 30.2 19.1 19.7 21.6 21.7
Provisions 27 22 33 44 52
RoCE (%) 34.2 24.6 25.9 27.5 27.0
Net Current Assets 3,801 6,737 7,638 10,178 12,328
Asset/T.O (x) 4.2 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.1
Application of Funds 4,660 7,968 9,886 13,062 15,333
Net Debt/Equity (x) 0.0 (0.1) 0.0 0.1 0.1
Per share data EBIT/Interest (x) 20.5 30.5 44.1 26.0 36.3
Year ended 31 Mar FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
No. of shares (mn) 84 177 177 177 177
Margins (%)
Diluted no. of shares (mn) 177 177 177 177 177
Year ended 31 Mar FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
EBITDA Margin (%) 8.3 7.5 8.2 8.5 8.6
BVPS (INR) 23.0 43.8 53.1 65.1 79.9
EBIT Margin (%) 8.1 7.2 7.9 8.0 8.2
CEPS (INR) 5.3 6.7 10.0 13.7 16.8
PAT Margin (%) 5.9 5.5 6.1 6.1 6.3
DPS (INR) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.0
Source: Company Antique
Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 12 July 2024 | 12
Story in Charts
Exhibit 1: Expect revenue CAGR of 15% over FY24–27E Exhibit 2: Expect EBIDTA growth of 25% CAGR over FY24–27E
14.8%
27%
14.3%
13.2%
13.1%
18%
13.0%
12.4%
16%
11.7%
11.2%
10.9%
14%
12%
9.8%
10%
6%
1%
47.5 5%
40.8 5%
112.6
44.8
45.1
53.9
68.7
73.1
82.1
95.6
11.2
14.0
5.3
5.9
6.0
7.0
7.7
7.7
7.1
8.9
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E
FY25E
FY26E
FY27E
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E
FY25E
FY26E
FY27E
Revenue (INR bn) Growth YoY (%) EBITDA (INR bn) EBITDA margin (%)
Source: Company, Antique Source: Company, Antique
Exhibit 3: Appliances to be key contributor to ECD sales growth Exhibit 4: Lighting segment to witness growth from FY25 onwards
19.2%
19.9%
19.7%
19.7%
18.9%
11.5%
10.6%
16.6%
9.5%
16.0%
15.5%
15.0%
12.0%
14.6%
8.4%
11.8%
11.5%
11.7%
11.0%
6.1%
12.8
12.7
11.2
10.8
10.6
10.0
11.0
12.3
14.0
28.3
32.1
33.9
37.6
43.1
47.6
53.9
61.4
72.7
86.3
9.9
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E
FY25E
FY26E
FY27E
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E
FY25E
FY26E
FY27E
ECD revenue (INR bn) EBIT margin (%) Lighting revenue (INR bn) EBIT margin (%)
Source: Company, Antique Source: Company, Antique
Exhibit 5: Expect earnings CAGR of 27% over FY23–27E Exhibit 6: RoE & RoCE to improve from current levels by FY25
48.7
30%
29%
23%
22%
32%
39.6
16%
38.6
14%
35.7
27.1
23.0
-2%
20.1
18.6
-7%
31.8
17.3
15.6
29.7
27.9
27.8
-19%
22.2
19.7
19.3
16.6
14.7
14.0
3.2
3.7
4.9
6.0
5.9
4.8
4.4
5.4
7.1
9.1
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E
FY25E
FY26E
FY27E
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E
FY25E
FY26E
FY27E
PAT (INR bn) YoY growth (%) RoE (%) RoCE (%)
Source: Company, Antique Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 12 July 2024 | 15
Financials
Profit and loss account (INR mn) Cash flow statement (INR mn)
Year-ended March 31 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e Year-ended March 31 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
Net Revenue 68,696 73,128 82,092 95,618 1,12,600 PBT 6,122 5,731 7,281 9,440 12,170
Op. Expenses 60,991 65,991 73,156 84,421 98,585 Depreciation & amortization 1,159 1,288 1,430 1,714 1,997
Gross Profit 21,893 23,125 26,874 31,744 37,566 Interest expense 633 406 933 786 628
EBITDA 7,705 7,137 8,937 11,197 14,015 (Inc)/Dec in working capital (1,033) 2,553 48 251 315
Depreciation 1,159 1,288 1,430 1,714 1,997 Tax paid (1,399) (1,313) (1,835) (2,379) (3,067)
EBIT 6,546 5,849 7,507 9,483 12,018 Other operating Cash Flow 50 (233) - - -
Other income 668 674 708 743 780 CF from operating activities 5,532 8,432 7,857 9,811 12,043
Interest Exp. 1,092 792 933 786 628 Capital expenditure (791) (805) (1,500) (1,500) (1,500)
Reported PBT 6,122 5,731 7,281 9,440 12,170 Inc/(Dec) in investments 3,749 (937) 326 326 326
Tax 1,358 1,313 1,835 2,379 3,067 CF from investing activities 2,958 (1,743) (1,174) (1,174) (1,174)
Reported PAT 4,764 4,418 5,446 7,061 9,103 Inc/(Dec) in share capital 416 893 - - -
Net Profit 4,764 4,418 5,446 7,061 9,103 Inc/(Dec) in debt (6,842) (3,250) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000)
Adjusted PAT 4,764 4,418 5,446 7,061 9,103 Dividend Paid (1,578) (1,912) (2,378) (3,083) (3,975)
Adjusted EPS (INR) 7.5 6.9 8.5 11.0 14.2 Others (1,108) (754) (933) (786) (628)
CF from financing activities (9,111) (5,023) (4,311) (4,869) (5,603)
Balance sheet (INR mn) Net cash flow (622) 1,667 2,372 3,769 5,267
Year-ended March 31 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e Opening balance 9,152 1,095 2,608 4,653 8,096
Share Capital 1,272 1,286 1,286 1,286 1,286 Closing balance 1,095 2,608 4,653 8,096 13,036
Reserves & Surplus 25,328 28,710 31,778 35,756 40,885
Networth 26,600 29,996 33,064 37,042 42,171 Growth indicators (%)
Debt 9,222 5,990 4,990 3,990 2,990 Year-ended March 31 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
Minority Interest 4,477 4,494 4,494 4,494 4,494 Revenue 27.4 6.5 12.3 16.5 17.8
Net deferred Tax liabilities 123 99 99 99 99 EBITDA 0.1 (7.4) 25.2 25.3 25.2
Capital Employed 40,422 40,579 42,647 45,625 49,753 Adj PAT (19.4) (7.3) 23.3 29.7 28.9
Capital work in progress 55 114 114 114 114 Adj EPS (20.3) (7.7) 22.0 29.7 28.9
Net Fixed Assets 4,286 3,711 3,781 3,567 3,070
Goodwill 28,478 28,842 28,842 28,842 28,842 Valuation (x)
Current Assets, Loans & Adv. 18,298 21,373 25,715 32,627 41,924 Year-ended March 31 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
Inventory 7,439 8,304 9,322 10,858 12,787 P/E (x) 56.4 61.0 50.1 38.6 29.9
Debtors 6,861 7,335 8,235 9,591 11,295 P/BV (x) 10.1 9.0 8.2 7.4 6.5
Cash & Bank balance 1,095 2,608 4,653 8,096 13,036 EV/EBITDA (x) 35.5 37.7 29.8 23.4 18.2
Loans & advances and others 2,904 3,125 3,504 4,082 4,807 EV/Sales (x) 4.0 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.3
Current Liabilities & Provisions 16,123 20,238 22,582 26,303 30,975 Dividend Yield (%) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1
Year-ended March 31 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e Net Debt/Equity (x) 0.3 0.1 0.0 (0.1) (0.2)
No. of shares (mn) 633 636 643 643 643 EBIT/Interest (x) 6.6 8.2 8.8 13.0 20.4
MONTHLY UPDATE
Pharmaceuticals
IPM reports ~9% growth for 1QFY25, aided by
recovery in acute segment
As per IQVIA IMS, the Indian Pharmaceutical Market (IPM) reported a 9%
YoY growth for 1QFY25, primarily led by price increases. Acute therapies
continued on the path to recovery, reporting 8% growth led by GI, which
grew 11% during the quarter due to seasonality benefits, coupled with Anti-
infective being the largest acute therapy growing at 6% YoY for the quarter.
Chronic therapies remained the key growth driver for IPM, reporting ~11%
Monish Shah YoY growth for the quarter, supported by healthy growth in its large therapies
+91 22 6911 3412
viz. Cardiac and Anti-diabetic, growing 12% and 7% respectively. Amongst
monish.shah@antiquelimited.com
the top 10 companies MACLEODS, MANKIND, and INTAS grew faster than
Pranav Chawla IPM. Looking ahead to FY25, we anticipate continued improvement in Cardiac,
+91 22 6911 3417
pranav.chawla@antiquelimited.com
Neuro/ CNS, and Anti-diabetic therapies, as these segments are affected by
both large products losing exclusivity and new launches. Overall, for FY25,
we expect IPM to grow at a healthy rate of ~8%–10%, driven by 3%–4%
increase in prices; whereas volumes, including new products, are likely to
contribute ~5%–6%. Among our coverage companies, we prefer MANKIND
and TRP for their healthy growth rates and therapy mix.
Seasonality aids recovery in acute therapies
Acute therapies witnessed a marginal recovery in 1QFY25, driven by GI, VMN, and DERMA,
growing at 11%, 8%, and 9% respectively for the quarter (YoY). The growth in GI therapy
was driven by Electrolytes and PPIs (proton pump inhibitors), which recorded +20% growth,
benefiting from seasonality. The performance of respiratory therapy was muted on account of
last year’s high base, leading to ~2% growth for the quarter. Anti-infective, the largest acute
therapy, recorded a 6% value growth with only ~2% unit decline. With base normalization
for Anti-infective, we believe the growth of acute therapies will further improve from 2QFY25.
Large brands losing exclusivity
Linagliptin’s franchise, which saw a loss of exclusivity (LOE) in Aug’23, reported ~10% value
decline as of MAT Jun’24, with 25% volume growth. LPC continues to maintain ~34% unit
market share in the Linagliptin subgroup, with BI (innovator) at ~30% volume market share.
Sacubitril + Valsartan, which lost exclusivity in Jan’23, has now stabilized at ~INR 6 bn
market, with Novartis holding ~31% unit market share, followed by DRRD and JBCP at 17%
and 11% respectively. LPC and MANKIND have been able to significantly scale up their
market share to ~7% and ~6% respectively post the LOE expiry (refer to exhibit 5). Anti-
diabetics also recorded 7% YoY growth for the quarter, with long-acting injectables and the
Metforming + Sitagliptin combination leading therapeutic growth. Oral anti-diabetic (OAD)
market remains one of the most competitive yet lucrative segments where the market continues
to shift from older drugs to gliptins (DPP-IV) and SGLT2 drugs. In our view, OAD segment
patent expiry for SGLT2 molecules like Dapagliflozin, Canagliflozin, and Empagliflozin offer
significant growth opportunities.
Our View
We expect IPM to grow at a healthy 8%–10% in FY25 supported by a recovery in volumes
and new launches, whereas we expect limited price hikes on account of weak NLEM. With
newer launches in the chronic space and expected GLP-1 in-licensing opportunities, we believe
the chronic segment would grow faster and drive IPM growth in FY25. Among our coverage
companies, we prefer MANKIND and TRP with their healthy growth rates and therapy mix.
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 12 July 2024 | 17
17
2.7
10
9
7
9
2.8
8
2.9
7
5.4
5
5
174 2
5.0
166
179
187
192
190
180
181
180
180
196
190
177
4.2
2.7
OCT'23
DEC'23
JAN'24
MAR'24
APR'24
JUN'23
JUL'23
AUG'23
SEP'23
NOV'23
FEB'24
MAY'24
JUN'24
0.5 0.5
Table 1: 6 Out of top 10 companies grew faster then the IPM in 1QFY25
MAT Jun'24 Market YoY 3 year Jun'24 YoY MoM 1QFY25 YoY QoQ
Rank (INR mn) share (%) (%) CAGR (%) (INR mn) (%) (%) (INR mn) (%) (%)
IPM 22,07,220 8 9 1,77,300 7 -7 5,63,204 9 5
1 SUN 1,71,394 7.8% 9 11 14,162 8 -3 44,310 9 6
2 ABBOTT 1,36,995 6.2% 8 10 11,267 7 -6 35,637 9 7
3 CIPLA 1,20,919 5.5% 7 7 8,979 4 -9 29,163 7 -4
4 MANKIND 98,302 4.5% 8 11 7,633 8 -7 24,909 10 4
5 ALKEM 88,306 4.0% 6 11 6,930 6 -5 21,851 7 8
6 INTAS PHARMA 78,889 3.6% 12 14 6,557 8 -5 20,527 11 6
7 LUPIN LIMITED 75,359 3.4% 7 7 6,083 6 -9 19,428 9 5
8 TORRENT PHARMA 75,091 3.4% 8 10 6,236 4 -8 19,787 8 9
9 MACLEODS PHARMA 74,403 3.4% 10 13 5,786 10 -8 18,354 12 3
10 DR REDDYS LABS 68,082 3.1% 9 7 5,643 6 -3 17,460 8 5
11 ARISTO PHARMA 63,998 2.9% 7 10 4,623 4 -9 15,227 5 1
12 ZYDUS CADILA 62,931 2.9% 6 7 5,080 9 -8 16,357 10 6
13 GLAXOSMITHKLINE 52,053 2.4% 0 5 3,837 3 -7 12,465 3 -3
14 EMCURE 50,569 2.3% 7 6 4,026 5 -6 12,668 6 3
15 GLENMARK PHARMA 46,028 2.1% 11 4 3,501 10 -7 11,333 16 -5
16 IPCA LABS 44,281 2.0% 13 15 3,796 12 -7 12,241 15 26
17 U S V 42,393 1.9% 7 8 3,468 2 -8 11,067 6 6
18 MICRO LABS 34,758 1.6% 2 9 2,710 3 -7 8,563 4 4
19 PFIZER 32,397 1.5% -1 -1 2,429 1 -8 7,984 2 1
20 ALEMBIC 32,187 1.5% 3 9 2,386 5 -8 7,734 5 -1
21 JB PHARMA 25,268 1.1% 10 17 2,121 7 -7 6,682 12 9
22 ERIS LIFESCIENCES 23,508 1.1% 9 8 1,970 8 -5 6,178 11 6
Source: IQVIA IMS, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 12 July 2024 | 18
Exhibit 3: Improving contribution of chronic therapies in IPM Exhibit 4: Chronic therapies outpaces IPM growth
10%
10%
11%
8%
6%
7%
6%
9%
8%
63.0% 62.8% 62.3% 61.5%
MAT JUN'21 MAT JUN'22 MAT JUN'23 MAT JUN'24 MAT JUN'24 YTD CY24 1QFY25
ACUTE CHRONIC IPM Acute Chronic
Source: IQVIA IMS, Antique Source: IQVIA IMS, Antique
31%
29%
26% 26%
23%
22%
20%
19% 18%
17% 17%
15% 15% 14% 14%
13%
11%
9%
7%
7% 7% 7%
5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
4%
Cipla
Exhibit 6: CIPLA's growth driven by price increases
1.3
3.5 7.3
1.6
3.9
4.9
3.3 1.5
-7.1
Mankind
Exhibit 7: Growth Drivers—MAT Jun’24 growth driven by price increases and new introduction
2.9
5.4
2.6
2.1
4.3
6.1
3.1 6.8
-0.1
MAT Jun'22 MAT Jun'23 MAT Jun'24
Volume growth Price growth New introduction growth
Source: IQVIA IMS, Antique
Alkem
Exhibit 8: Growth Drivers— Healthy mix between Price and new introductions for MAT Jun’24
3.6
3.0
4.1 5.7
3.6
5.6
3.5
6.5
-1.0
MAT Jun'22 MAT Jun'23 MAT Jun'24
Volume growth Price growth New introduction growth
Source: IQVIA IMS, Antique
Table 7: Key Therapy contribution—GI and VMN record double digit growth
MAT Jun'24 Contribution YoY 3 year Jun'24 YoY MoM 1QFY25 YoY QoQ
Therapy (INR mn) to sales (%) (%) CAGR (%) (INR mn) (%) (%) (INR mn) (%) (%)
88,306 6 11 6,930 6 -5 21,851 7 8
Anti-Infectives 31,478 35.6 1 8 2,196 2 -7 7,118 2 -2
Gastro Intestinal 17,123 19.4 11 15 1,492 10 -6 4,665 14 23
Vitamins/Minerals/Nutrients 9,577 10.8 11 9 854 11 -0 2,546 12 22
Pain / Analgesics 9,444 10.7 4 12 734 2 -6 2,326 4 9
Anti Diabetic 4,082 4.6 16 23 338 4 -4 1,049 8 4
Source: IQVIA IMS, Antique
Lupin
Exhibit 9: Growth Drivers— Healthy mix between Price and NI driving growth for MAT Jun’24
1.7
2.1
3.3
6.7 4.4
3.6
1.1
-0.3 -0.2
MAT Jun'22 MAT Jun'23 MAT Jun'24
Volume growth Price growth New introduction growth
Source: IQVIA IMS, Antique
Torrent Pharma
Exhibit 10: Growth Drivers—Price and new introductions a key growth driver for MAT Jun’24
2.5 3.5
3.9
7.3
8.1
7.1
1.4
0.5
-3.0
Zydus Life
Exhibit 11: Growth Drivers—Price increases and new introduction a key growth driver
3.3 2.1
6.0 2.1
7.9
4.5
2.0
-0.4
-5.0
Table 13: Key Therapy contribution: Cardiac and Anti-infectives support growth
MAT Jun'24 Contribution YoY 3 year Jun'24 YoY MoM 1QFY25 YoY QoQ
Therapy (INR mn) to sales (%) (%) CAGR (%) (INR mn) (%) (%) (INR mn) (%) (%)
62,931 6 7 5,080 9 -8 16,357 10 6
Respiratory 8,784 14.0 3 12 584 -1 -12 1,995 3 -16
Cardiac 8,426 13.4 5 7 755 18 -5 2,297 14 13
Anti-Infectives 8,233 13.1 10 9 684 25 -5 2,158 21 9
Gastro Intestinal 6,240 9.9 -1 6 536 7 -6 1,704 7 13
Pain / Analgesics 4,937 7.8 8 10 395 0 -6 1,253 5 9
Source: IQVIA IMS, Antique
Dr. Reddy's
Exhibit 12: Growth Drivers—Healthly growth across drivers
2.5 2.4
1.0
2.8
6.2 6.4
3.3
-0.5
-1.9
Alembic Pharma
Exhibit 13: Growth Drivers—Growth driven by Price increases and new introductions
2.3 3.4
5.2 3.0
5.7
5.0
2.7
3.9
-4.8
JB Chemicals
Exhibit 14: Growth Driver—Broad based growth
3.2 2.3
9.1 8.9
2.7
4.6
Table 19: Key Therapy contribution—robust growth in Cardiac and Gynaec therapies
MAT Jun'24 Contribution YoY 3 year Jun'24 YoY MoM 1QFY25 YoY QoQ
Therapy (INR mn) to sales (%) (%) CAGR (%) (INR mn) (%) (%) (INR mn) (%) (%)
25,268 10 17 2,121 7 -7 6,682 12 9
Cardiac 10,710 42.4 14 20 918 11 -8 2,894 20 7
Gastro Intestinal 6,703 26.5 11 15 553 8 -5 1,725 9 10
Anti-Parasitic 2,044 8.1 9 20 179 1 -12 597 9 24
Ophthal / Otologicals 1,915 7.6 -9 4 148 -20 -8 479 -16 5
Gynaec. 1,099 4.3 20 28 96 17 -5 294 23 11
Source: IQVIA IMS, Antique
Valuation Guide
Company Reco CMP TP Return M. Cap M. Cap Net profit (INR bn) EPS (INR) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INR bn) (USD bn) FY25 FY26 FY27 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY26 FY26 FY26 1m 12m
Valuation Guide
Company Reco CMP TP Return M. Cap M. Cap Net profit (INR bn) EPS (INR) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INR bn) (USD bn) FY25 FY26 FY27 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY26 FY26 FY26 1m 12m
contd...
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 12 July 2024 | 31
Valuation Guide
Company Reco CMP TP Return M. Cap M. Cap Net profit (INR bn) EPS (INR) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INR bn) (USD bn) FY25 FY26 FY27 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY26 FY26 FY26 1m 12m
METALS & MINING
APL Apollo Tubes Buy 1,552 1,744 12 430.8 5.2 9.9 14.6 19.9 35.6 52.8 71.8 43.6 29.4 21.6 28.2 20.1 15.3 7.9 30.0 34.2 -2 18
Hindalco Industries Buy 696 793 14 1,564.7 18.7 115.3 120.1 126.0 51.8 54.0 56.7 13.4 12.9 12.3 7.1 6.7 6.3 1.2 9.6 11.7 3 64
Hindustan Zinc Sell 672 380 (43) 2,837.7 34.0 98.9 108.0 115.1 23.4 25.6 27.2 28.7 26.3 24.7 16.9 15.6 14.7 12.9 53.0 52.2 -2 102
HI-Tech Pipes Buy 141 182 29 21.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 2.0 5.0 8.0 11.1 28.4 17.5 12.6 13.8 9.6 7.0 2.7 16.4 19.2 7 90
Indian Hume Pipe Buy 444 414 (7) 23.4 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.3 14.0 20.3 25.4 31.7 21.9 17.5 17.1 13.6 11.5 2.4 11.4 14.0 26 80
Jindal Steel & Power Buy 1,015 1,108 9 1,034.9 12.4 64.9 90.3 102.4 64.2 89.3 101.3 15.8 11.4 10.0 8.7 6.7 5.9 1.7 16.0 17.5 -1 63
JSW Steel Hold 925 945 2 2,262.0 27.1 126.2 162.1 175.2 52.2 67.0 72.5 17.7 13.8 12.8 9.2 7.8 7.3 2.3 17.8 15.2 1 15
JTL Industries Buy 225 271 21 38.5 0.5 1.7 2.3 2.8 9.5 12.8 15.7 23.6 17.6 14.3 17.3 12.8 10.4 3.4 21.6 27.5 3 27
Kirloskar Ferrous Buy 743 785 6 103.6 1.2 4.0 7.6 8.9 28.7 54.2 63.6 25.9 13.7 11.7 14.6 9.0 7.7 3.8 31.5 32.1 4 51
MOIL Buy 538 564 5 109.5 1.3 8.0 10.1 11.9 39.6 49.6 58.2 13.6 10.8 9.2 8.5 6.5 5.2 2.8 28.4 38.3 2 180
NALCO Buy 199 235 18 365.3 4.4 27.3 32.5 33.5 14.8 17.7 18.3 13.4 11.2 10.9 7.7 6.3 6.0 2.0 18.5 23.8 8 135
NMDC Buy 246 294 19 721.5 8.6 76.7 88.5 96.7 26.2 30.2 33.0 9.4 8.2 7.5 6.4 5.3 4.6 2.0 26.6 34.5 -6 121
SAIL Hold 152 161 6 627.2 7.5 56.3 63.9 70.6 13.6 15.5 17.1 11.1 9.8 8.9 6.9 6.2 5.7 1.0 10.0 10.3 1 69
Tata Steel Buy 169 190 13 2,108.8 25.3 121.2 178.9 204.8 9.7 14.3 16.4 17.4 11.8 10.3 8.2 6.5 5.8 1.7 15.8 16.0 -7 47
Venus Pipes Hold 2,145 2,160 1 43.5 0.5 1.2 1.7 1.9 58.5 83.9 96.1 36.7 25.6 22.3 22.7 16.8 15.0 6.2 27.4 30.9 0 80
Vedanta Hold 448 465 4 1,664.2 19.9 154.4 188.5 208.5 41.5 50.7 56.0 10.8 8.8 8.0 5.2 4.5 4.0 4.1 49.7 28.7 1 61
OIL & GAS
BPCL Buy 307 378 23 1,330.2 15.9 138.5 140.3 142.9 31.9 32.3 32.9 9.6 9.5 9.3 6.2 6.4 6.8 1.5 16.1 16.3 0 59
GAIL Sell 229 185 (19) 1,508.3 18.1 90.7 84.3 90.9 13.6 12.7 13.6 16.8 18.1 16.8 11.8 12.2 10.9 2.0 11.7 12.0 6 107
Gujarat Gas Buy 645 690 7 444.1 5.3 14.1 19.4 21.8 20.5 28.3 31.7 31.5 22.8 20.3 18.9 14.0 12.4 4.5 20.9 25.1 6 37
HPCL Buy 350 424 21 744.8 8.9 84.0 79.8 81.5 39.5 37.5 38.3 8.9 9.3 9.1 7.1 7.1 6.9 1.5 16.8 11.7 0 80
IGL Hold 531 426 (20) 371.6 4.5 15.9 17.8 18.8 22.7 25.4 26.8 23.4 20.9 19.8 15.3 13.4 12.4 3.4 17.1 21.9 11 8
Indian Oil Corp Buy 174 217 25 2,463.3 29.5 233.8 241.5 278.6 17.0 17.5 20.2 10.3 9.9 8.6 7.5 7.0 6.0 1.2 12.3 11.1 3 78
Mahanagar Gas Hold 1,704 1,493 (12) 168.3 2.0 10.3 10.4 11.1 103.9 105.5 112.9 16.4 16.2 15.1 9.1 8.7 8.0 2.7 17.5 22.8 18 53
Oil India Buy 551 534 (3) 896.3 10.7 66.4 73.4 69.7 40.8 45.1 42.8 13.5 12.2 12.9 9.2 8.0 8.0 1.7 14.6 16.6 25 224
ONGC Buy 305 338 11 3,833.8 45.9 370.8 428.8 387.6 29.5 34.1 30.8 10.3 8.9 9.9 5.2 4.5 4.5 1.1 12.6 15.1 11 82
Petronet LNG Buy 342 325 (5) 512.5 6.1 36.9 38.4 37.6 24.6 25.6 25.1 13.9 13.4 13.6 9.3 9.6 9.8 2.6 20.3 21.7 7 54
Reliance Industries Buy 3,161 3,276 4 21,390.0 256.2 739.5 818.2 853.6 109.3 120.9 126.2 28.9 26.1 25.1 12.4 10.8 9.5 2.3 9.1 9.7 8 25
PHARMA & HEALTHCARE
Alkem Hold 5,199 4,652 (11) 621.7 7.4 22.8 25.2 25.4 190.4 210.5 212.4 27.3 24.7 24.5 21.2 18.7 16.6 4.5 19.7 23.1 2 47
Alembic Pharma Hold 999 940 (6) 196.4 2.4 6.7 8.0 8.8 33.8 40.8 44.6 29.5 24.5 22.4 17.3 14.5 13.1 3.3 14.2 17.2 12 52
CIPLA Sell 1,506 1,221 (19) 1,216.1 14.6 34.2 40.3 45.3 42.5 50.0 56.2 35.4 30.1 26.8 21.5 18.0 15.6 3.7 12.9 18.0 -2 47
Concord Biotech Buy 1,690 1,920 14 176.8 2.1 4.1 5.1 6.4 39.1 48.3 61.3 43.2 35.0 27.5 30.7 24.5 19.1 8.1 25.4 33.1 18
Divi's Laboratories Ltd Sell 4,583 3,198 (30) 1,216.5 14.6 21.1 24.5 27.0 79.6 92.2 101.7 57.6 49.7 45.1 39.6 33.5 30.0 7.5 15.8 20.6 3 26
Dr Reddys Sell 6,595 5,267 (20) 1,100.1 13.2 36.3 41.1 46.8 217.3 246.1 280.6 30.3 26.8 23.5 17.9 15.5 13.2 3.2 12.5 16.8 9 27
IOL Chemicals Buy 421 467 11 24.7 0.3 2.1 2.4 2.2 36.0 41.0 36.9 11.7 10.2 11.4 6.8 5.7 5.6 1.2 12.6 16.6 7 13
JB Chemicals Hold 1,721 1,631 (5) 267.2 3.2 7.5 8.7 10.0 48.6 56.3 64.6 35.4 30.6 26.7 21.9 18.7 16.1 3.3 23.2 28.7 -9 32
Dr Lal Pathlabs Sell 2,946 2,291 (22) 246.0 2.9 4.2 5.0 5.9 50.3 60.3 70.6 58.5 48.8 41.7 34.5 28.8 24.5 51.3 22.4 29.6 7 24
Laurus Labs Hold 472 353 (25) 254.2 3.0 5.5 7.2 8.0 10.2 13.4 14.8 46.3 35.2 31.8 20.1 16.6 15.3 4.9 14.7 15.8 7 34
Lupin Buy 1,817 1,958 8 828.5 9.9 28.6 32.8 38.6 62.7 72.0 84.7 29.0 25.2 21.5 16.8 14.9 12.5 4.2 18.1 22.7 13 93
Mankind Pharma Buy 2,117 2,438 15 848.2 10.2 23.2 26.1 29.7 57.9 65.2 74.1 36.6 32.5 28.6 26.1 22.5 19.2 6.1 20.7 25.0 -5 13
Metropolis Healthcare Sell 2,058 1,718 (17) 105.4 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.8 33.4 43.1 55.1 61.7 47.8 37.4 30.1 24.5 19.6 7.4 16.5 20.8 6 42
Solara Active Pharma Sell 616 361 (41) 26.4 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.4 8.7 19.6 28.5 70.9 31.4 21.6 15.1 12.1 10.0 2.1 7.5 8.0 40 76
Torrent Pharma Buy 2,958 3,337 13 1,001.2 12.0 20.5 27.4 33.6 60.6 81.1 99.3 48.8 36.5 29.8 25.7 21.4 18.0 11.4 33.4 35.6 2 53
Vijaya Diagnostic Centre Hold 795 796 0 81.6 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.4 15.2 19.2 23.8 52.4 41.4 33.4 28.8 23.2 18.8 4.2 22.1 24.6 -3 67
Zydus Life Science Hold 1,163 888 (24) 1,170.6 14.0 33.3 37.3 40.3 33.1 37.1 40.1 35.1 31.3 29.0 23.9 20.9 18.7 4.5 15.2 18.5 6 96
REALTY
Arvind SmartSpaces Buy 706 1,112 57 32.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 17.1 26.8 36.2 41.3 26.4 19.5 25.2 16.8 13.2 4.4 18.2 24.2 1 102
Brigade Enterprise Buy 1,301 1,620 25 300.6 3.6 6.8 8.2 10.3 29.7 35.5 44.8 43.8 36.6 29.0 21.6 19.2 16.4 29.2 17.3 15.0 -3 124
Century Textile & Industries Buy 2,188 3,470 59 244.4 2.9 2.8 4.2 4.6 25.5 37.6 41.5 85.7 58.2 52.7 30.2 24.0 21.8 5.4 9.6 11.2 5 146
DLF Buy 832 1,071 29 2,059.3 24.7 37.4 44.4 56.5 15.1 17.9 22.8 55.0 46.4 36.5 79.9 66.3 63.2 4.3 9.8 7.0 -3 69
Godrej Properties Buy 3,294 3,677 12 915.9 11.0 13.2 30.5 39.6 47.3 109.6 142.5 69.6 30.1 23.1 147.2 78.0 62.5 6.4 23.7 19.2 12 106
Kolte Patil Buy 412 765 86 31.3 0.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 22.1 24.0 25.1 18.7 17.1 16.4 7.1 6.6 6.0 3.1 19.3 19.6 -11 7
Macrotech Developers Buy 1,472 1,634 11 1,464.9 17.5 29.3 33.8 39.5 29.5 34.0 39.8 49.9 43.3 37.0 35.8 31.7 27.2 6.2 15.3 16.1 0 115
Nexus Select Trust Buy 148 151 2 224.5 2.7 7.3 8.6 9.3 4.8 5.7 6.1 30.9 26.0 24.3 15.6 14.0 13.9 1.6 6.1 7.9 13 30
Oberoi Realty Buy 1,712 1,922 12 622.3 7.5 27.3 32.6 37.1 75.1 89.8 102.2 22.8 19.1 16.8 18.3 15.1 12.9 3.1 17.9 20.9 -11 66
Phoenix Buy 3,934 3,214 (18) 703.0 8.4 10.3 12.1 13.0 57.6 67.8 72.8 68.2 58.0 54.1 33.5 30.2 28.4 6.2 11.2 10.8 15 150
Prestige Estates Buy 1,768 2,198 24 708.6 8.5 15.4 18.9 30.6 38.5 47.1 76.3 45.9 37.5 23.2 25.5 21.4 14.3 4.8 12.8 12.9 -4 202
Sobha Buy 2,017 3,003 49 191.3 2.3 3.4 5.9 8.2 31.5 55.1 76.7 64.0 36.6 26.3 29.5 19.7 14.8 5.6 18.7 21.9 0 271
Sunteck Realty Buy 571 656 15 83.7 1.0 3.1 2.8 2.4 21.4 19.4 16.7 26.7 29.4 34.3 - - - 2.4 8.2 10.4 -1 73
TELECOM
Bharti Airtel Buy 1,438 1,574 9 8,592.1 102.9 181.1 245.0 318.2 31.6 42.8 55.5 45.5 33.6 25.9 11.5 9.7 8.0 7.1 23.2 19.5 0 62
TEXTILE
Arvind Ltd Buy 390 491 26 102.0 1.2 4.5 6.0 7.4 17.3 23.1 28.4 22.5 16.9 13.7 11.1 8.9 7.4 2.2 14.1 16.4 4 190
KPR Mills Hold 855 942 10 292.2 3.5 10.9 12.1 13.6 31.8 35.4 39.9 26.9 24.1 21.4 19.0 17.1 15.3 4.8 21.4 26.0 2 31
Welspun Living Buy 174 215 23 169.3 2.0 9.7 12.6 13.6 9.9 12.9 14.0 17.5 13.5 12.5 10.4 8.4 7.4 2.6 20.7 21.2 26 77
contd...
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 12 July 2024 | 32
Valuation Guide
Company Reco CMP TP Return M. Cap M. Cap Net profit (INR bn) EPS (INR) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INR bn) (USD bn) FY25 FY26 FY27 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY26 FY26 FY26 1m 12m
UTILITIES
CESC Buy 192 153 (20) 254.4 3.0 17.6 23.2 21.7 13.3 17.5 16.3 14.4 11.0 11.7 11.1 9.1 8.0 1.9 17.3 12.0 29 158
COAL India Buy 500 557 11 3,081.7 36.9 358.9 374.5 405.2 58.2 60.8 65.7 8.6 8.2 7.6 7.9 7.3 6.6 2.6 34.7 18.7 2 113
Indian Energy Exchange Sell 177 114 (35) 157.9 1.9 4.0 4.4 4.8 4.4 5.0 5.4 39.8 35.6 32.7 35.5 32.0 29.4 12.5 37.5 38.4 2 43
JSW Energy Buy 713 592 (17) 1,246.2 14.9 23.8 29.5 32.1 14.5 17.9 19.5 49.3 39.8 36.5 21.6 18.2 16.3 4.6 12.1 8.9 10 128
NHPC Buy 114 94 (17) 1,145.8 13.7 45.1 52.0 61.0 4.4 5.1 5.9 26.0 22.5 19.2 22.5 18.7 16.4 2.6 11.9 6.8 11 142
NTPC Buy 377 383 1 3,656.6 43.8 157.1 182.1 219.3 16.2 18.8 22.6 23.3 20.1 16.7 12.3 11.2 9.9 2.1 11.1 9.3 2 98
Power Grid Buy 343 319 (7) 3,188.2 38.2 164.7 182.7 214.3 17.7 19.6 23.0 19.4 17.4 14.9 11.1 10.4 9.2 3.0 17.9 18.7 6 81
PTC India Buy 224 227 1 66.3 0.8 3.8 4.5 5.2 12.9 15.2 17.6 17.3 14.7 12.8 10.0 7.7 6.2 1.5 10.2 26.4 5 100
SJVN Ltd Buy 150 163 9 589.2 7.1 18.0 21.8 22.4 4.6 5.6 5.7 32.6 27.0 26.4 20.3 16.9 15.9 3.7 14.1 8.8 12 213
Torrent Power Hold 1,530 1,159 (24) 735.4 8.8 28.2 31.8 35.7 58.8 66.1 74.2 26.0 23.2 20.6 13.5 12.3 11.3 4.6 21.2 18.7 -5 144
Tata Power Buy 440 450 2 1,407.2 16.9 38.9 49.1 58.8 12.2 15.4 18.4 36.2 28.7 23.9 17.5 14.8 13.2 3.7 12.9 8.2 -2 95
MIDCAPS - OTHER
CCL Products Buy 608 870 43 81.1 1.0 2.7 3.7 5.4 20.3 28.1 40.7 30.0 21.6 14.9 18.9 14.8 11.2 3.7 18.5 12.5 1 -16
EPL Ltd. Buy 233 340 46 74.1 0.9 3.5 4.8 5.8 11.0 15.0 18.3 21.1 15.5 12.7 9.0 7.0 6.0 2.8 19.6 23.8 19 6
Ganesha Ecosphere Buy 1,517 1,910 26 38.5 0.5 1.4 1.6 2.4 51.8 61.2 91.4 29.3 24.8 16.6 16.2 14.4 10.2 2.8 12.1 13.9 21 43
Gravita India BUY 1,359 1,340 (1) 93.8 1.1 2.8 3.4 4.0 40.5 49.8 57.3 33.5 27.3 23.7 23.8 19.7 17.6 6.8 28.0 25.1 2 120
Indian Hotels Hold 603 550 (9) 857.9 10.3 15.4 18.1 20.8 10.8 12.8 14.6 55.6 47.2 41.2 34.4 30.0 25.5 7.0 15.8 16.8 3 54
Chalet Hotels Buy 836 950 14 182.4 2.2 3.7 4.8 6.8 18.0 23.3 33.0 46.5 35.9 25.4 24.2 20.0 14.9 4.2 12.6 13.9 -1 82
Mold-Tek Packaging Buy 797 1,160 46 26.5 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.4 25.2 33.4 43.3 31.6 23.9 18.4 17.2 13.7 11.0 3.6 16.0 14.0 0 -27
Raymond Buy 2,001 3,905 95 133.2 1.6 8.0 10.7 12.6 119.6 161.2 189.4 16.7 12.4 10.6 10.9 8.5 7.1 2.1 18.2 18.2 27 78
Solar Industries Hold 12,252 9,310 (24) 1,108.7 13.3 12.0 15.4 18.3 132.5 170.0 202.2 92.5 72.1 60.6 57.1 45.1 37.8 19.1 30.1 37.1 30 240
Varun Beverages Buy 1,592 1,890 19 2,069.3 24.8 28.8 37.8 49.0 22.1 29.1 37.7 71.9 54.7 42.2 42.0 33.2 26.7 16.3 34.2 33.2 2 89
Yatra Online Buy 127 181 42 20.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.2 3.9 7.4 7.7 32.4 17.3 16.5 17.9 10.2 9.1 2.2 13.3 15.4 -1
Company Reco CMP TP Return M. Cap M. Cap Net profit (INR bn) BVPS (INR) P/BV (x)* NNPA Ratio (%) P/E (x) RoE (%) RoA (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INR bn) (USD bn) FY25 FY26 FY27 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY26 FY26 FY26 1m 12m
FINANCIALS
Axis Bank Buy 1,297 1,375 6 4,007.6 48.0 281.4 321.5 387.9 550.0 631.2 729.3 2.2 1.9 1.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 12.4 17.6 1.8 9 37
Bank of Baroda Buy 257 315 23 1,327.5 15.9 191.3 208.4 230.3 228.4 260.6 296.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.6 6.4 16.5 1.1 -9 25
Canara Bank Buy 114 140 22 1,035.4 12.4 153.5 171.9 196.0 100.9 116.0 133.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.4 6.0 17.5 1.0 -7 72
City Union Bank Buy 162 185 14 120.3 1.4 10.2 11.6 12.3 125.6 139.7 154.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.9 1.9 1.8 10.4 11.8 1.4 9 26
DCB Bank Buy 133 175 32 41.7 0.5 6.7 7.8 9.0 172.4 195.5 222.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.2 5.3 13.5 1.0 -1 4
Equitas SFB Buy 91 125 37 103.7 1.2 9.1 12.0 14.8 58.8 66.9 76.9 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 8.6 16.9 1.9 -6 -3
Federal Bank Buy 193 200 4 471.4 5.6 39.9 46.0 54.2 133.0 148.5 165.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.8 10.2 13.4 1.2 11 44
HDFC Bank Buy 1,622 1,900 17 12,339.6 147.8 690.2 806.1 921.4 631.6 713.0 806.0 2.2 2.0 1.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 15.3 15.8 1.8 3 -1
ICICI Bank Buy 1,238 1,350 9 8,715.4 104.4 436.3 475.3 557.0 381.3 435.4 498.9 2.8 2.4 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 18.3 16.4 2.0 11 31
IndusInd Bank Buy 1,430 1,925 35 1,113.4 13.3 103.3 121.4 140.7 909.41,032.61,173.3 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 9.2 16.1 1.9 -4 4
Karur Vysya Bank Buy 195 240 23 156.1 1.9 17.6 19.5 21.6 143.6 164.4 187.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 8.1 15.7 1.5 -6 55
Kotak Mahindra Bank Buy 1,845 2,000 8 3,666.8 43.9 135.7 149.3 174.1 536.1 608.4 692.7 2.7 2.3 2.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 24.6 13.1 2.0 8 -2
L&T Finance Buy 179 220 23 446.3 5.3 31.2 37.2 44.9 103.6 114.8 128.3 1.7 1.6 1.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 12.0 13.7 2.8 5 33
Punjab National Bank Hold 119 130 9 1,314.7 15.7 150.1 183.2 198.3 100.1 112.5 126.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 7.2 15.7 1.0 -6 94
Shriram Finance Buy 2,739 3,300 20 1,029.6 12.3 82.2 96.5 112.6 1,466.2 1,672.9 1,922.6 1.9 1.6 1.4 2.8 2.9 3.0 10.7 16.4 3.3 7 52
State Bank of India Buy 857 975 14 7,645.7 91.6 682.7 711.0 822.8 414.1 477.8 551.5 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 10.8 17.0 1.0 2 45
South Indian Bank Hold 27 32 21 69.6 0.8 9.9 11.1 14.2 35.7 39.5 44.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 6.3 11.3 0.8 -3 26
Ujjivan Small Bank Buy 45 65 44 87.7 1.0 12.1 13.5 14.8 36.2 44.0 52.6 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 5.8 18.9 2.5 -9 6
Union Bank of India Buy 137 175 28 1,044.1 12.5 165.3 173.5 185.7 134.6 150.9 168.4 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 6.0 15.9 1.0 -7 66
*Adjusted for subsidiaries
Company Reco CMP TP Return M. Cap M. Cap VNB (INR bn) EVPS (INR) P/EV (x) P/VNB (x) RoEV (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INR bn) (USD bn) FY25 FY26 FY27 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY26 1m 12m
Insurance
HDFC Life Insurance Buy 634 760 20 1,364.3 16.3 41.8 50.2 57.5 254.4 299.0 350.1 2.5 2.1 1.8 18.6 13.6 9.7 17.9 11 -6
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Buy 653 710 9 942.1 11.3 26.2 30.5 34.9 335.9 383.2 436.9 1.9 1.7 1.5 16.6 12.1 8.3 14.7 13 9
LIC of India Buy 1,057 1,160 10 6,687.7 80.1 110.4 120.5 132.5 1,261.6 1,376.7 1,501.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 NA NA NA 10.1 6 70
Max Life Insurance* Buy 1,033 1,280 24 356.4 4.3 23.1 27.0 31.4 722.0 854.3 1,007.8 2.2 1.9 1.6 12.4 8.9 6.0 18.8 7 25
SBI Life Insurance Buy 1,559 1,910 22 1,561.3 18.7 65.7 77.2 90.0 692.4 821.7 972.1 2.3 1.9 1.6 12.6 9.1 6.2 19.1 7 20
*Valuations after factoring 20% holdco discount
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 12 July 2024 | 33
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