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Full download (eBook PDF) Key Risk Indicators by Ann Rodriguez file pdf all chapter on 2024
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Ann Rodriguez
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Key Risk Indicators
Key Risk Indicators
Incisive Media
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Contents
1 Foundations
2 Challenges
3 Culture is Foundational
10 Using KRIs
13 Case Studies
Appendix
References
Index
About the Authors
Ann Rodriguez has significant experience across financial services within risk
management and operations, including corporate governance and board reporting, and
operational risk, with a focus on technology, information security and third party. At GE
Capital, she has established and provided leadership for the enterprise and operational
risk programmes, and had accountability for the KRI programme, implementation risk,
fraud risk, and records and information management. Previously, at Wells Fargo Ann
worked on risk governance and regulatory interface, at Wachovia was head of
operational risk for the corporate and investment bank, while at Goldman Sachs she was
the chief operating officer for the Investment Banking Division Systems Group. She has
an extensive background in consulting as president of Wability, as lead partner over
financial services consulting at BDO Seidman and at Price Waterhouse, where she lead
practices in market and operational risk. Ann is currently performing advisory services
for top tier companies and is focused on for-profit corporate board service.
Key risk indicators (KRIs) have been the holy grail of risk management since the early
2000s. KRIs seemed to embody the notion that we should be able to foresee the future
and look around corners. KRIs should allow us to manage risk and govern more
effectively, if only we can define and measure the right metrics. Sadly, reality has not
lived up to the hope – most organisations are far from where they thought they would be.
Why, then, have KRIs failed to live up to their promise?
IS THERE HOPE?
Risk management has made great strides towards becoming a more connected
discipline, beyond transactional reviews and approval, or discrete process and control
oversight. Industries that have never embraced risk as a discipline are coming to terms
with a changing world and threats that require a different approach. Think about all of
the information security breaches occurring in retail stores, healthcare and financial
services. Think about the examples of scandals prompted by cultural failures and quality
failures for car companies. The stakes have become higher.
Foundations
In this chapter, we will lay the groundwork for several important terms and concepts
that will be used throughout the book. The chapter will also describe some broad
challenges in implementing and using a KRI framework and programme, challenges that
play a central role in the existing state of maturity of KRIs in financial services and
other industries.
Most organisations measure some combination of metrics that provide insight into
performance, control and risk. These insights often fall under the heading of “profile” or
“view”. We will use the terms profile, view, event and risk somewhat interchangeably
to refer to the non-specific object that a metric is measuring. Arguably, all of these
metrics inform about potential risk to the achievement of enterprise objectives, either
directly or indirectly!
Businesses measure things to try to answer these four questions:
DEFINITIONS
Let us begin by setting the stage with a few definitions that will clarify the range of
practice in referring to metrics, and the nature of the metrics based on how they are
used. First, it is important to clarify what we are ultimately measuring: risk and control.
Risk is potential, an array of possible negative outcomes to be avoided or calculated,
choices to be taken to achieve objectives. The quantification of risk occurs in terms of
inherent and residual dimensions, and a view into each is critical to driving decision-
making and risk-taking.
Inherent risk is the risk of loss that exists in the context of an organisation. A scenario
of potential loss alongside factors that have a bearing on the size of that loss (eg,
business model, external environment, precedent for loss levels occurring elsewhere)
provides context. The scenario applies the context and determines a level of potential
loss should the event occur. Inherent risk provides insight into where an organisation
should focus remediation activities and ongoing governance, and is often described as
risk in the absence of controls. The term “absent controls” helps to clarify how the
scenario of loss occurred.
Residual risk is a view of exposure that considers control levels and likelihood.
Residual risk is useful to provide a snapshot of current exposure, and can support the
optimisation of control. Applied systematically, controls mitigate inherent risk. Metrics
measure the effectiveness of individual, as well as aggregate, controls.
A metric or indicator is anything that gets measured. It becomes a key indicator if it
measures something important to the organisation. The main indicators are detailed
below.
Key risk indicator: A KRI is a metric that permits a business to monitor changes in the
level of risk in order to take action. KRIs highlight pressure points and can be
effective leading indicators of emerging risks. These are typically forward-looking or
leading indicators.
Key performance indicator (KPI): A KPI is a metric that evaluates how a business is
performing against objectives. A defined target (typically) provides the benchmark
for evaluation of a KPI metric. These metrics are usually backward-looking or
lagging indicators.
Key control indicator (KCI): A KCI is a metric that evaluates the effectiveness level
of a control (or set of controls) that have been implemented to reduce or mitigate a
given risk exposure. A calibrated threshold or trigger (typically) brackets a KCI
metric. These metrics are usually backward-looking or lagging indicators. Control
indicators link with operational or process objectives.
The bottom line is: a metric is a metric is a metric! The differentiation between a KRI, a
KPI or a KCI is simply in the usage. The usage of the metric provides context, whether
it informs risk, performance or control. The description of the metric is a reflection of
its usage in the reporting and the narrative that goes along with it. Therefore, a
performance indicator could also be a risk or control indicator; a risk indicator could
also be a performance or control indicator; and a control indicator could also be a risk
or performance indicator. For the remainder of this book, we will use the following
terms synonymously: metric, indicator and KRI, and will focus on representing or
informing the risk profile with these metrics, and the ability to respond to changes in
metrics in order to better manage a risk.
“Measurement is the first step that leads to control and eventually to improvement. If you can’t measure
something, you can’t understand it. If you can’t understand it, you can’t control it. If you can’t control it, you
can’t improve it.” H. James Harrington
The important concepts from these two quotes are decision-making, control and
improvement. The point is to have a clear, refined, dynamic set of metrics that: illustrate
potential trouble spots in the organisation; highlight negative (and positive) trends; and
are responsive to change. This is to control, improve and change decision-making in a
positive way. Boards and senior management crave this sort of view, as it provides a
synthesis of a significant amount of information and allows for focused discussion on
the areas of significant potential risks.
________________
1 Hubbard (2007).
2
Challenges
There are several challenges that have impeded KRIs from achieving their value
proposition. Much of the problem has been the lagging maturity of enterprise risk
management as a function and discipline. There are discrete organisational challenges in
implementing KRIs as part of an ERM framework, such as organisational silos and a
poor risk culture, which will be discussed in more detail later in the book. This chapter
will focus on operational challenges that an organisation faces as it implements a KRI
programme.
OPERATIONAL CHALLENGES
Data and social challenges can both make the first steps toward developing a KRI
framework seem daunting. Managing these issues, however, can insure the long-term
success of the programme. Since we will spend time throughout the book talking about
culture, it is worth noting that social challenges differ from cultural challenges. Social
challenges are those that are inherent to human beings: how our personal experiences
mold our interpretation of information and events both before and after they occur.
Mindfulness and a willingness to challenge assumptions can help mitigate social
challenges. Cultural challenges are more organisational, with correction achieved by
“tone from the top”, appropriate incentives and ongoing reinforcement.
Data challenges
Not enough, too much, just right …
Of course, we all want our information to be ideal: defendable, accurate, consistent and
complete. This is true for the metrics we measure and track. Certainly, too little
information can be a problem, but historically in many organisations the main challenge
is too much information. To establish a KRI framework, we rarely get to start with a
blank page: the existence of metrics is pervasive, having grown over time and for
various reasons. They have a lifespan that exists in silos, performance reviews and
management reporting. In most organisations, everybody measures something and,
typically, everybody measures lots of somethings. A critical first step in establishing a
meaningful KRI framework is to understand the parameters of measurement: what,
where, why and how.
Potential risk should guide the inventory and structure of the abundance of things
measured within an organisation. It is generally easier to construct a story with fewer
pieces of information than with more! However, there is no magic number or specific
answer for how many is the right number of metrics.
Aside from the number of things to be measured, there is the aspect of how long you
have been measuring them – and storing that information. Unfortunately, most companies
do not have databases of historical information when it comes to KRIs.
Consistency
Consider consistency as a data challenge early on in the design of a KRI framework.
There are several potential pitfalls that can result in having an incorrect view
represented, either at an aggregate level or comparatively across business segments.
We mentioned earlier that everybody measures lots of somethings. Consider the
scenario where different parts of an organisation measure the same “thing”.
Inconsistency can be manifested in several ways:
it seems the same, but is being interpreted as different by the different people
measuring it;
it is the same thing, but is being measured differently (eg, different frequency); and
it is the same thing, but what is being measured is different (eg, inclusion of a factor
in one measurement that is not in the other).
To manage this potential pitfall during the design process and the ongoing programme
management it is best not to take anything for granted. Consistency across each of the
dimensions listed above should exist for each key metric flagged for aggregation into a
storyline about a particular risk.
On this last point, research by Kahneman and Tversky2 demonstrate framing with the
following scenario.
You need to select a preventative strategy for disease that saves as many lives as
possible. You have two options:
Which would you pick? The research indicated that 72% of participants chose option A.
Now consider these two options:
Only 22% of the participants chose option C (which is the equivalent of option A) over
option D (which is the equivalent of option B). The way the situation was framed
changed which option was selected.
It is important when considering the interpretation of information to consider multiple
views (gains versus losses, risk versus return, etc) to eliminate bias toward one
perspective.
Halo effect: This occurs because we allow an overall impression of something, such
as a person, company, brand or product, to influence our thoughts or feelings about
that entity.
Hindsight: Events can lead to hindsight bias, or creeping determinism, as recollection
from an original thought to something different based on new information. This can
alter our view on the cause of the event, and in our case the indicators that provide
insight that the event should have been predicted. A possible mitigation for hindsight
bias in the relationship of KRIs to potential risks is to examine how the potential risk
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intended to be executed in marble. In fashioning this he must use
deliberation, because the clay which is worked in a damp state
shrinks in drying; he therefore, as he works, adds more bit by bit and
at the very last mixes some baked flour with the clay to keep it soft
and remove the dryness.[158] This trouble is taken that the model shall
not shrink but remain accurate and similar to the figure to be carved
in marble. To ensure that the large clay model shall support itself
and the clay not crack, the artist must take some soft cuttings of cloth
or some horse hair, and mix this with the clay to render it tenacious
and not liable to split. The figure is supported by wood underneath
with pressed tow or hay fastened to it with string.[159] The bones of
the figure are made and placed in the necessary pose after the
pattern of the small model, whether erect or seated; and from the
beginning to the end of the process of covering it with clay the figure
is formed in the nude.
Those artificers who are in a hurry to get on, and who hew into the
stone at the first and rashly cut away the marble in front and at the
back have no means afterwards of drawing back in case of need.[162]
Many errors in statues spring from this impatience of the artist to see
the round figure out of the block at once, so that often an error is
revealed that can only be remedied by joining on pieces, as we have
seen to be the habit of many modern artists. This patching is after
the fashion of cobblers and not of competent men or rare masters,
and is ugly and despicable and worthy of the greatest blame.
Those works that sculptors call half reliefs[165] were invented by the
ancients to make figure compositions with which to adorn flat walls,
and they adopted this treatment in theatres and triumphal arches,
because, even had they wished to sculpture figures in the round, they
could not place them unless they first constructed a standing ground
or an open place that was flat. Desiring therefore to avoid this, they
invented a kind of sculpture which they named half relief, and it is
called ‘mezzo rilievo’ still among ourselves.
In the manner of a picture this kind of relief sets forth first the
whole of the principal figures, either in half round or still greater
salience, as may happen, the figures on the second plane partly
hidden by the first, and those on the third by the second, just as
living people are seen when they are assembled and crowded
together. In this kind of half relief, for the sake of perspective, they
make the most distant figures low, some of the heads indeed
extremely low, and no less so the houses and scenery which are the
objects most remote. By none has this species of half relief ever been
better executed, with more observation, or with its figures
diminished and spaced one from the other more correctly than by
the ancients;[166] for they, who were students of the truth and gifted
artists, never made the figures in such compositions with ground
that is foreshortened or seems to run away, but placed them with
their feet resting on the moulding beneath them. In contrast to this,
some of our own moderns, over eager, have, in their compositions in
half relief, made their principal figures stand on the plane which is in
low relief and recedes, and the middle figures on the same plane in
such a position that, as they stand, they do not rest the feet as firmly
as is natural, whence it not infrequently happens that the points of
the feet of those figures that turn their backs actually touch the shins
of their own legs, so violent is the foreshortening. Such things are
seen in many modern works, and even in the gates of the Baptistry
and in many examples of that period. Therefore half reliefs of this
character are incorrect, because, if the foremost figures project half
out of the stone while others have to be placed behind them, there
must be a rule for the retiring and diminution; the feet of the figures
have to be on the ground, so that the ground may come forward in
front as required by the eye and the rule in things painted.
Accordingly the figures must be gradually reduced in proportion as
they recede till they reach the flattened and low relief; and because of
the harmony required it is difficult to carry out the work perfectly
seeing that in relief the feet and heads are foreshortened. Great skill
in design therefore is necessary if the artist wish to exhibit his ability
in this art. The same degree of perfection is demanded for figures in
clay or wax as for those worked in bronze and marble. Therefore of
all the works which have the qualities that I indicate the half reliefs
may be considered most beautiful and most highly praised by
experienced artists.
The second species called low reliefs projects much less than the
half reliefs; they have not more than half the boldness of the others,
and one can rightly make in these low reliefs the ground, the
buildings, the prospects, the stairs and the landscapes as we see in
the bronze pulpits in San Lorenzo at Florence, and in all the low
reliefs of Donatello, who in this art produced things truly divine with
the greatest truth to nature. These reliefs present themselves easily
to the eye and without errors or barbarisms, seeing that they do not
project forward so much as to give occasion for errors or censure.
When this, which they call the model, is finished and brought to
this point of perfection, they then begin, with plaster that will set, to
build over it piece by piece, making the pieces correspond to the
relief of the model. On every piece they make a key, marking the
pieces with numbers or letters of the alphabet or with other signs in
order that the pieces can be taken off and register together. So they
mould it part by part, oiling the pieces of the cast where the edges
have to be connected; till from piece to piece the figure grows, the
head, the arms, the body and the legs, to the last detail, in such a
manner that the concave of the statue, that is the hollow mould,
comes to be imprinted on the inner surface with all the parts and
with the very minutest marking which is in the model.[170] This
completed, the plaster casts are laid aside to harden.
Returning now to the pieces of the hollow mould, these are lined
severally with yellow wax that has been softened and incorporated
with a little turpentine and tallow.[172] When the wax is melted at the
fire, it is poured into the two halves of the mould made up of the
hollow pieces in such a manner as causes the wax to come thin
according to the worker’s idea for the cast, and the pieces, which
have been shaped to correspond with the relief of the core already
made of clay, are joined to it and fitted and grafted together.
With thin skewers of copper the pieces of wax pierced with the said
skewers are now fixed to the baked core, and so, piece by piece, they
are inserted and fitted to the figure and render it entirely finished.
This completed they proceed to remove all the superfluous wax that
has overflowed into the interstices of the pieces, and bring it as well
as possible to that finished excellence and perfection which one
desires in the bronze cast. Before going further, the craftsman sets up
the figure and considers diligently if the wax have any deficiency, and
he proceeds to repair it and to fill up again, putting on more or
taking away where necessary.[173]
After that, the wax being completed and the figure braced together,
he puts it where fire can be applied to it[174] on two andirons of wood,
stone, or iron like a roast, arranging so that it can be raised or
lowered; and with moistened ash, specially fitted for that purpose, by
means of a paint brush he covers the entire figure so that the wax is
quite concealed, and over every hollow and chink he clothes it well
with this material. Having applied the ash to it he replaces the
transverse rods, which pass through the wax and the core, just as he
has left them in the figure, because these have to support the core
within and the mould without, which is the casing of the hollow
space between the core and the mould, where the bronze is to be
poured. When this armature has been fixed, the artificer begins to
take some fine earth, beaten together with horse dung and hair, as I
said, and carefully lays a very thin coating all over which he allows to
dry, and so on time after time with other coatings, always allowing
each to dry until the figure becomes covered with earth raised to the
thickness of half a span at the most.
This done, he girds those irons that hold the core within with other
irons which hold the mould outside, and fixes them together, so that
chained and bound the one to the other they form a mutual support,
[175]
the core within sustaining the mould without and the mould
without holding firm the core within.
It is usual to make certain little pipes between the core and the
outer mould called vents, that have issue upwards; they are put, for
instance, from a knee to an arm that is raised, because these give
passage to the metal[176] to make up for that which on account of
some impediment may not flow properly, and these little tubes are
made many or few, according as the casting is difficult or not.
This done, the worker proceeds to apply heat to the said mould
equally all over, so that it may become united and little by little be
warmed through, and he increases the heat till the mould is
thoroughly hot throughout, so that the wax which is in the hollow
space becomes melted and all flows out at the spot through which the
metal is to be poured, without any particle of the wax remaining
within.[177] To be sure of this, it is needful, before the pieces of wax
are grafted in to their places on the figure, to weigh them piece by
piece; in the same way after drawing out the wax, it must be weighed
again, when by making the subtraction the artist sees if any wax be
left between the core and the mould, and how much has come out.
Notice that the skill and care of the artist is manifested in the process
of taking out the wax; herein is seen the difficulty of producing the
casts so that they come out sharp and beautiful, for if any of the wax
be left, it would ruin the whole cast, especially that part where the
wax remains.
This finished, the craftsman puts the mould under ground near to
the furnace where the bronze is melted, propping it so that the
bronze may not strain it, and he makes the channels through which
the bronze is to flow, and at the top he leaves a certain thickness,
which allows for the surplus of the bronze to be sawn off afterwards,
and this he does in order to secure sharpness.[178]
The artist prepares the metal as he thinks fit, and for every pound
of wax he puts ten pounds of metal.[179] Statuary metal is made of the
combination of two thirds of copper and one third of brass according
to the Italian rule. The Egyptians, from whom this art took its origin,
put into the bronze two thirds of brass and one third of copper. In
electron metal, which is the finest of all, two parts copper are put to
one part silver. In bells, for every hundred parts of copper there are
twenty of tin, in order that the sound of the bells may carry far and
be more blended; and for artillery, in every hundred parts of copper,
ten of tin.[180]
Now should the artificer wish to cast small figures in metal, they
are first made of wax, or if he happen to have them in clay or other
material, he makes the shell of plaster over them in the same way as
for the large figures, and fills it all with wax. But the shell must be
moistened that the wax, when poured into it, may set (with a hard
skin) by reason of the coldness of the wet cast. Then by shaking
about and agitating the cast, the wax (which is not hardened) within
the cavity is thrown out, so that the cast remains hollow in the
interior: the craftsman afterwards fills up the vacant space with clay
and puts in skewers of iron. This clay serves then for core, but it must
be allowed to dry well. Thereafter he adjusts the mould as for the
other large figures, giving it its armature and placing the tubes for
the vents. Then he bakes it and gets rid of the (skin of) wax and thus
the vacant space remains clear so that the bronze can easily be
poured in. The same is done with the low and half reliefs and with
every other work in metal.
These casts being finished, the workman then, with suitable tools,
that is, with burins, burnishers, chasing tools, punches, chisels and
files, removes material where needed, and where needed presses
inward the overflow of the metal and smoothes it down; and with
other tools that scrape, he shaves and cleans the whole of it
diligently, and finally with pumice stone gives the last polish. This
bronze which is red when it is worked assumes through time by a
natural change a colour that draws towards black. Some turn it black
with oil, others with vinegar make it green, and others with varnish
give it the colour of black, so that every one makes it come as he likes
best.