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Computational Leadership: Connecting

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BRIAN R. SPISAK

COMPUTATIONAL
LEADERSHIP
Connecting Behavioral Science and Technology to
Optimize Decision-Making and Increase Profits
Copyright © 2023 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.


Published simultaneously in Canada.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted


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otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright
Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through
payment of the appropriate per-­copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222
Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-­8400, fax (978) 750-­4470, or on the web
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Trademarks: Wiley and the Wiley logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of John Wiley
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John Wiley & Sons, Inc. is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book.

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to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any
implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be
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where appropriate. Further, readers should be aware that websites listed in this work may have
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I dedicate this book to humanity’s curious, enthusiastic,
and prosocial nature.

It’s time to shine!


Contents
Introduction: How a Flood in Johnstown, Pennsylvania
Inspired Computational Leadership vii

PART I LEARNING ABOUT COMPUTATIONAL


LEADERSHIP 1
Chapter 1 Developing the Roberto Clementes
of Leadership 3
Featuring a Leadership Development Q&A
with IBM
Chapter 2 Releasing the DEI Talent River 21
Featuring a Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion
Q&A with JPMorgan Chase
Chapter 3 Breaking the Death-by-Meetings
Curse and Other Engagement Killers 37
Featuring an Employee Engagement Q&A with
Merck & Co.
Chapter 4 Mastering the Bubbles and Tightropes of
Sustainability 57
Featuring a Sustainability Q&A with Tony’s
Chocolonely
Chapter 5 Leading Through Crisis, Crisis, and More
Crisis 75
Featuring a Crisis Leadership Q&A with Microsoft
Chapter 6 Cultivating Healthy Growth with
Healthy People 97
Featuring an Employee Health and Well-Being
Q&A with WebMD

v
vi Contents

PART II BEING ABOUT COMPUTATIONAL


LEADERSHIP 117
Chapter 7 Becoming a Digital Golf Pro and Growing
Digital Trees 119
Four Questions for Selecting a CLS Advisor 120
Two Systemic Factors for Growing Your
Organization 124
Pairing Systemic Needs with Digital Trends 131
Building CLS Teams 135
Chapter 8 Navigating the 4 Cs of Digital
Transformation 137
Making (Systemic) Goals Concrete and Actionable 137
The Confirm Step 141
The Collect Step 147
The Construct Step 153
The Convey Step 157

Conclusion: Spider-Man and Your Post-Digital Future 161


Learning from Interconnected Knowledge 162
Boldly Going Where No Leader Has Gone Before 164
Concluding Thoughts 166
Notes 169
Acknowledgments 203
Index 205
Introduction: How a Flood
in Johnstown, Pennsylvania
Inspired Computational
Leadership

I n 1880, Henry Clay Frick, chairperson of the Carnegie Steel


Company and one of the wealthiest people in the world, led a group
of investors in purchasing an abandoned reservoir, which they con-
verted into the South Fork Fishing and Hunting Club. It was a play-
ground for the wealthy elite of the day. A place where they could escape
the chaos of America’s industrial revolution.
Unfortunately, during development, leadership made three
doomed decisions regarding repairs to the reservoir’s dam—­which was
then the largest earthen dam in the world. They lowered the dam by
over three feet to make its top wide enough for a two-­lane road, they
added debris-­gathering fish screens in the spillway to maintain fish
stocks, and they decided not to replace drainage pipes, which were sold
off for scrap by the previous owner. The Club’s leaders took these
actions despite continued warnings from engineers that the dam’s
modifications and insufficient repairs were creating a situation for cat-
astrophic failure.1
The stage was set for crisis, and in less than a decade of purchas-
ing the dam, the possibility of failure became a horrific reality on May
31, 1889. After record-­ breaking rainfall, the dam broke and my
hometown—­Johnstown, Pennsylvania—­was leveled with 20 million
tons of water, killing 2,209 people and accounting for approximately
$534 million in damage (in 2023 money). The flood, at the time, was
the worst disaster in US history. It utterly devastated the city, and it left
an ugly scar on Henry Clay Frick’s legacy simply because he was too

vii
viii Introduction: How a Flood in Johnstown, Pennsylvania

narcissistic, too short-­term focused, and too stubborn to change his


self-­interested behavior.2
So what does this have to do with computational leadership? It’s
a cautionary tale against two perilous gambles: ignoring data and sci-
ence, and shirking investment in necessary technology. These are the
unsustainable choices of impoverished leaders prioritizing business as
usual over lasting resilience. They’re the decisions of people succumb-
ing to the dark side of leadership.
Fortunately, the future of leadership introduced in this book is
much brighter. Innovative leaders will unlock new, sustainable, and
equitable ways of creating value with a fantastic array of digital tools
and techniques. They will gain next-­level vision to make better choices
in times of complexity and uncertainty. And they will create environ-
ments where self-­interest and group i­nterest work in unison.

Leading with Digital Vision


To get started, first ask yourself how you want to be remembered. Do
you want to leave an infamous Frick-­like legacy, or do you want to
break new ground that ushers in remarkable changes to business and
society? Because the true standout leaders display vision, courage, curi-
osity, resourcefulness, sustainability, and a keen sense of experimenta-
tion. They clearly articulate key questions related to core business and
use all available data, science, and tech—­while leveraging their human
and social capital—­to create previously unseen opportunities. The
great ones, in short, work like gifted scientists searching for deeper
meaning and truth.
A direct path to this bright future is through what I call compu-
tational leadership science (CLS)—that is, the study and application of
leadership at the intersection of trailblazing science and technology,
well-­established research, and invaluable knowledge gleaned from
practice. As I mentioned in a March 2022 Harvard Business Review arti-
cle, “CLS allows businesses to better anticipate, address, mitigate, and
even benefit from the tidal waves of disruption one’s organization is
going to experience in the months and years ahead.”3
Introduction: How a Flood in Johnstown, Pennsylvania ix

You can think of CLS as a set of digital golf clubs, and CLS advi-
sors like me as digital golf pros helping you make the right choices.
During the early stages of digital leadership, for example, a wellspring
of “digital clubs” emerged. There is now an overabundance of choice,
with hundreds of “all hype, no help” clubs set to derail your perfor-
mance. Leaders, metaphorically speaking, might end up buying an
overpriced driver when a less expensive alternative works just as well.
Even worse, without a digital golf pro, they may end up using the
wrong club for the shot, like someone hacking away with a $2,000
driver at a ball in a sand trap.
CLS and CLS advisors will help you avoid these problems and
take your performance to the next level with well-­chosen tools. In the
chapters to come, you will learn both what clubs are available and
which one to use for each shot. And, by the end of the book, it’s my goal
to make you a CLS-­driven leader—­or leader in the making—­prepared
for society’s increasingly digital future.
This book, therefore, is not a technology-­centered gospel espous-
ing the unquestionable value of “all things tech, all the time.” You’re
the leaders and followers exhibiting agency, and you’re at the center
of this CLS revolution. The shot is yours to take, not the machine’s.
As the digital golf pro with thorough knowledge of both the course
and the different clubs, I will simply help you choose the right club and
make suggestions on how to use it.

The Beauty of Leadership


Before diving deeper into CLS and how it can turbocharge your value,
let me explain why I’m fascinated by leadership.

Leadership is scalable. Leadership can orchestrate everything


from two innovators in a garage poised to disrupt an entire
market to worldwide pandemic responses saving millions of
lives. The largest employer on the planet—­the US Department
of Defense—­ coordinates the efforts of over 2.91 million
employees, for example. Leadership, simply put, is present in
x Introduction: How a Flood in Johnstown, Pennsylvania

the smallest groups, the largest groups, and everything


in between.
Leadership is flexible. From cold wars to warm relations, lead-
ership makes a difference. This adaptive process is able to
adjust across a varied organizational landscape. Leadership can
be used to battle for market share, to cultivate prosocial HR
practices, to explore new entrepreneurial opportunities, and to
refine established ways of working. Leadership styles and prac-
tices also vary according to the situation. At times, collective
and transformation leadership emerges; at other times, direc-
tive and transactional leadership comes to the forefront. Like
water in a river, leadership boosts coordination by aligning
with—­and eventually shaping—­the situation.
Leadership is universal. Leadership is (and was) present in all
known cultures and societies. Leadership is also common
across most social species, from primates and wolves to cows
and ants. Leadership even occurs between species where
humans are the followers: for example, there are fishermen in
Brazil who follow dolphins. The dolphins herd schools of mul-
let to the shore where the fishermen are waiting with nets. The
dolphins then strike the water with their heads or tails to signal
when the fishermen should cast their nets. The outcome of this
rudimentary but effective leadership dynamic is a mutual pay-
off: the fishermen get a large haul of easily caught fish and the
dolphins get individual fish separated from the school.4,5

This is the beauty and value of leadership. It’s scalable, flexible,


and universal. At the extremes, leadership can ramp up to vast num-
bers, connecting people across the globe—­or scale down to dyadic
relationships where unique interpersonal bonds drive grassroots
change. Leadership can also establish cooperation between groups one
day and transform to defend against outside enemies the next. Effective
leaders can then adjust these factors to meet the needs of, and influ-
ence, any situation, from green policy and supply chains to financial
practices and crisis management. The key is adopting the right tools
and techniques to harness the scalable, flexible, and universal power of
leadership.
Introduction: How a Flood in Johnstown, Pennsylvania xi

Defining (Digital) Leadership


The first step in learning how to fully wield the power of leadership is
clearly understanding what it is and is not. A leader, of course, is an
individual, while leadership is a process incorporating leaders, follow-
ers, and the situation. Leadership, as a people process, dives into
volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity—­VUCA environ-
ments—­ to innovate solutions and discover new opportunities. An
effective leadership process eats VUCA for breakfast using all available
tools, techniques, and human-­social capital at its disposal.
Also, leadership is typically thought of as a “soft” intuitive skill,
while management is a “hard” science, but those lines are blurring, and
the days of purely intuitive decisions are over. Technological innova-
tion, (big) data, an army of analytical experts, and savvy leaders are
vaporizing the idea that leadership is purely a soft skill. Gone are the
days of winging it based on gut feelings—­at least for those who want to
remain competitive and sustainable. Instead, business and society is on
the cusp of a shift where all aspects of leadership—­from ensuring
inclusive engagement to creating sustainable supply chains—­are over-
hauled through the application of computational methods, including
AI, network analysis, predictive modeling, and simulations.
Most leadership processes are starting to incorporate this
approach where—­ at the very least—­ intuitive decisions are data
informed. Netflix, for example, combines advanced viewer analytics
with years of experience when selecting content.6 This evolution of
leadership means the use of data, science, and tech is a must-­have for
leaders wanting to improve profits, increase growth, streamline opera-
tions, and generally optimize decision-­making.

The Dawn of Computational Leadership Science


Though the critical imperative for leaders to use all available data, sci-
ence, and tech is nothing new—­as the opening Frick example proves—­
society’s current spring of innovation is rapidly increasing the
effectiveness of leadership. Data and tech are providing leaders with
the power to use social capital and drive change like never before. It’s
truly a fundamental shift in leadership.
xii Introduction: How a Flood in Johnstown, Pennsylvania

Leaders now have the digital clubs to avoid the traps of an ana-
logue past. They can go beyond old-­school practices such as “come
back to the office because I said so” leadership, and they can break
“good enough” habits inhibiting exploration and growth. These are
post-­digital leaders who have the clubs and the ability to use them.
They combine knowledge gleaned from practice, innovative technol-
ogy, and decades of leadership research to make and save organizations
billions—­ while driving unprecedented levels of innovation and
sustainability.
CLS will help leaders strengthen interpersonal relationships
and morale in the era of remote working, and it will increase diver-
sity, equity, and inclusion by separating a leader’s biased wants from
their actual needs in hiring and promotion. CLS will help mitigate
fragile, just-­in-­time supply chains and corner the market on com-
plexity with the power of quantum computing—­the so-­called quan-
tum advantage. CLS-­driven leaders will also connect and coordinate
a global network of collective intelligence to tackle society’s biggest
challenges.
CLS, simply put, is the new standard for leadership excellence in
a time of unprecedented economic, environmental, social, and techno-
logical disruption. Hesitate, and the near future is going to feel alien
and uncertain. Be proactive with CLS, and you’ll guide sustainable
change with purposeful intent.

A Road Map for Building Your CLS Capacity


The goal of this book is to ensure you stay on this sustainable path to
growth. In Part I, we’ll explore key challenges affecting every organi-
zation. First, I’ll review what we know about CLS in relation to leader-
ship development, employee engagement, DEI (diversity, equity, and
inclusion), sustainability, crisis leadership, and employee health and
well-­being. I’ll then discuss how leaders can use CLS to discover hid-
den opportunities embedded in these core organizational factors.
Finally, I end each chapter with interviews of senior leaders from IBM,
JPMorgan Chase, Microsoft, WebMD, and more who shared with me
how they’re using CLS to grow and succeed.
Introduction: How a Flood in Johnstown, Pennsylvania xiii

By reading Part I as a series of steps, you’ll better understand how


all of the different data and tech puzzle pieces fit together to form a
holistic view of organizational leadership. That said, if you prefer, feel
free to read only the sections specific to your needs. Just keep in mind
that in skipping any of the chapters in Part I you might miss out on
cross-­functional seeds for growing next-­level solutions.
In Part II, I’ll provide you with a method for both clearly defining
any challenge you’re facing and assembling CLS teams to co-create
opportunities. This is where you unleash the full potential of CLS.
You’ll expand your set of digital clubs, knowing which one to use for
each shot and how to use it. From strengthening personal relationships
to improving strategic decision-­making, CLS will help you redefine
what it means to be a great leader.
My ultimate (optimistic) goal with this book is ensuring that no
one ever again relies on the dated and dangerous practices of people
like Henry Clay Frick. Instead, I want you to carve out a new and inno-
vative leadership niche that’s connected, sustainable, and obsessed with
stakeholder value. At the end of the day, CLS-­driven leaders have an
opportunity to make a distinct impact on the timeline of leadership,
and you can be part of this renaissance. Now, let’s begin your journey.
Part I

LEARNING ABOUT
COMPUTATIONAL
LEADERSHIP
Chapter 1

Developing the Roberto


Clementes of Leadership

O ne of my joys is diving into the backstories of leaders. I look for


trends in their progress the same way I study baseball to see what
separates the great from the good. I want to know what next-­level lead-
ers do to elevate above the average. Figuratively speaking, I want to
know what makes them the Roberto Clementes of leadership—­a base-
ball great known for his tireless contributions both on and off the field.
I find that the Clementes of leadership know how to deliver
results in the face of extreme adversity. They have a keen sense of their
core values, they work hard and smart, they make sacrifices, they pri-
oritize stakeholder value, and they continuously take on board new
information to improve their game. They also know that leadership
development (LD) is a focal point for greatness.
Whether it’s onboarding high potentials, growing a network of
informal leaders, or grooming the next generation of senior leaders,
LD drives an organization’s trajectory. It makes a significant impact on
leadership capacity, and leadership capacity makes a significant impact
on performance. LD, simply put, is at the center of sustainable growth.
The goal of this chapter is to help you nurture this growth with
the latest in science and tech. We’ll start with summarizing existing
work to give you an idea of what experts know about LD. We’ll then
get to the details of how you can use computational leadership science
(CLS) to foster next-­level leadership. Finally, in the Q&A section, we’ll
see how IBM—­one of the best at developing talent—­is taking steps to
boost its LD with digital innovations.

3
4 Learning about Computational Leadership

What We Know about Leadership Development


The concept and practice of LD has been around for decades, and
experts have amassed a great deal of information in that time. I want to
briefly touch on this mountain of information because it’s a raw mate-
rial waiting to be refined into 21st-­century knowledge.
Interestingly, the current state of LD is similar to the premise of
Michael Lewis’s 2003 book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair
Game, where the Oakland Athletics baseball team paired an endless
flow of baseball stats with advanced analytics to build a highly competi-
tive team on a small budget. Its 2002 payroll was only $44 million,
and yet it was able to find hidden talent and compete with teams like
the Yankees, which spent over $125 million on the “best” players that
year. The Oakland A’s did more with less and changed the way Major
League Baseball does business by stepping away from traditional base-
ball wisdom. They “Moneyballed” the game. And now you can do
same—­you can Moneyball LD—­by tapping into the endless stream of
data flowing through your organization. It’ll revolutionize how you
develop the Roberto Clementes of leadership.1
To start this digital revolution, let’s first explore what research
and practice already knows.

We know that aligning needs with LD offerings makes


organizations robust and sustainable. Getting LD right is
the foundation for healthy growth while getting it wrong cre-
ates a downward spiral of bad leaders creating bad leadership
processes selecting for worse leaders and worse leadership
processes. It’s similar to making copies of copies and losing
resolution over time. This is why practitioners and research-
ers in the know place so much importance on LD, and why it’s
a fast-­growing market with an estimated value over $350 billion.
As organizations have become aware of how critical LD is
to their success, they have loosened their purse strings, and
providers have rushed in to help. This dynamic sets the stage
for a market filled with innovative products and services for
taking your LD skills to the next level (provided you choose
the right tools).2
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