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DATA SCIENCE APPLIED TO
SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS
DATA SCIENCE APPLIED TO
SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS
Edited by
JENNIFER B. DUNN
Northwestern-Argonne Institute of Science and Engineering,
Evanston, IL, USA; Center for Engineering Sustainability and Resilience,
Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA; Chemical and Biological
Engineering, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA
PRASANNA BALAPRAKASH
Northwestern-Argonne Institute of Science and Engineering, Evanston,
IL; Math and Computer Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory,
Lemont, IL, USA
Elsevier
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The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, United Kingdom
50 Hampshire Street, 5th Floor, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States
No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical,
including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from
the publisher. Details on how to seek permission, further information about the Publisher’s permissions policies and our
arrangements with organizations such as the Copyright Clearance Center and the Copyright Licensing Agency, can be
found at our website: www.elsevier.com/permissions.
This book and the individual contributions contained in it are protected under copyright by the Publisher (other than
as may be noted herein).
Notices
Knowledge and best practice in this field are constantly changing. As new research and experience broaden our
understanding, changes in research methods, professional practices, or medical treatment may become necessary.
Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience and knowledge in evaluating and using any information,
methods, compounds, or experiments described herein. In using such information or methods they should be mindful of their
own safety and the safety of others, including parties for whom they have a professional responsibility.
To the fullest extent of the law, neither the Publisher nor the authors, contributors, or editors, assume any liability for any
injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or
operation of any methods, products, instructions, or ideas contained in the material herein.
ISBN: 978-0-12-817976-5
Contributors ix
Introduction 17
What is adaptive management? 19
Creating value with AI 21
The impact technology canvas: synchronizing AI initiatives 24
Summary 26
References 27
Introduction 29
Case studies 32
Conclusion 38
References 40
Introduction 81
Materials and methods 82
Results 87
Conclusion and discussion 99
Acknowledgments 100
Appendix 100
References 106
Introduction 109
A focus on distributed solar PV 110
Assessing rooftop PV potential across cities 112
Evaluating equity in rooftop PV deployment: a case study for the United States 117
Concluding remarks 124
References 125
Introduction 129
Fundamentals of photovoltaics 131
Data-driven materials discovery schemes 140
Case studies of solar materials discovery 146
Future outlook 161
References 162
Introduction 205
The methodological evolution of remote sensing 208
Using deep learning to identify CAFOs 216
Discussion 221
References 224
11. Towards achieving the UNs data revolution: combining earth observation
and socioeconomic data for geographic targeting of resources for the
sustainable development goals 229
Gary R. Watmough, Charlotte L.J. Marcinko
Introduction 255
Selecting and prioritizing indicators 258
Indicator datasets and data science considerations 259
Data analytics 264
Implications for society & policy 274
Conclusion 275
References 276
Introduction 283
Needs for data to enable data science in sustainability 283
Data sources 286
Data science advances 287
Conclusion 290
References 291
Index 293
Contributors
Mikaela Algren
Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, USA
Hossein Ataei
Department of Civil, Materials, and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at
Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
Prasanna Balaprakash
Northwestern-Argonne Institute of Science and Engineering, Evanston, IL; Math and Computer
Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, IL, USA
Elisabeth N. Bui
CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, ACT, Australia
Sergio Castellanos
The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA
Deboleena Chakraborty
Dow, Midland, MI, USA
Jacqueline M. Cole
Cavendish Laboratory, Department of Physics, University of Cambridge, J. J. Thomson Avenue,
Cambridge, UK; ISIS Neutron and Muon Facility, STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory,
Harwell Science and Innovation Campus, Oxfordshire, Didcot, UK; Department of Chemical
Engineering and Biotechnology, University of Cambridge, West Cambridge Site, Philippa
Fawcett Drive, Cambridge, UK
Virginia H. Dale
University of Tennessee Knoxville, TN, USA
Maggie Davis
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA
Sybil Derrible
Department of Civil, Materials, and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Chicago,
Chicago, IL, USA
Leon R. Devereux
Cavendish Laboratory, Department of Physics, University of Cambridge, J. J. Thomson Avenue,
Cambridge, UK
Jennifer B. Dunn
Northwestern-Argonne Institute of Science and Engineering, Evanston, IL, USA; Center
for Engineering Sustainability and Resilience, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA;
Chemical and Biological Engineering, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA
Rebecca A. Efroymson
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA
ix
x Contributors
Wendy Fisher
Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, USA
Stefania Grimaldi
Monash University, Department of Civil Engineering, Clayton,VIC, Australia
Cassandra Handan-Nader
Department of Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA; Regulation, Evaluation,
and Governance Lab, Stanford, CA, USA
Richard K. Helling
Dow, Midland, MI, USA
Michael R. Hilliard
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA
Daniel E. Ho
Department of Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA; Stanford Institute
for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence, Stanford, CA, USA; Regulation, Evaluation, and
Governance Lab, Stanford, CA, USA; Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Stanford,
CA, USA; Stanford Law School, Stanford, CA, USA
Henriette Jager
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA
Daniel M. Kammen
University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
Evgenia Kapousouz
Department of Public Administration, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
Keith L. Kline
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA
Amy E. Landis
Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, USA
Larry Y. Liu
U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit, Birmington, AL, USA
Charlotte L.J. Marcinko
School of Engineering, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
Esther S. Parish
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA
Valentijn R.N. Pauwels
Monash University, Department of Civil Engineering, Clayton,VIC, Australia
Abolfazl Seyrfar
Department of Civil, Materials, and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at
Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
Ashkan Shokri
Monash University, Department of Civil Engineering, Clayton,VIC, Australia
Deborah A. Sunter
Tufts University, Medford, MA, USA
Contributors xi
Niraj Swami
Senior Director, Conservation Technology Strategy & Enablement at The Nature Conservancy,
Founding Partner, SCAD Ventures, Chicago, IL, USA
Gary R. Watmough
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Ashley Wright
Monash University, Department of Civil Engineering, Clayton,VIC, Australia
Fei Xie
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA
CHAPTER 1
Chapter Outlines
Data science is central to advances in sustainability 1
Types of sustainability analyses 6
Data science tools 7
Supervised learning 8
Unsupervised learning 9
Reinforcement learning 10
Tools 10
Overview of case studies in data science in sustainability 10
“Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without com-
promising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” (World Commission on
Environment and Our Common, 1987)
For the purposes of this book, we intend the term sustainability to mean the poten-
tial for achieving a high quality of life in human, social, environmental, and economic
systems, both today and in the future.
For this potential to be realized, society must reach a point where air quality, water
quality, and soil health are robust and do not pose a threat to ecosystem or human health.
Air quality remains unsatisfactory globally, and is the fifth risk factor for global mortal-
ity in 2017, associated with 4.9 deaths (Fig. 1.1) and 147 million healthy life years lost.
(Health Effects Institute 2019) In addition, water quality globally is a challenge, with
only half of water bodies exhibiting good quality per United Nations Sustainability
Fig. 1.1 Number of deaths attributable to air pollution in 2017. Data source: Global Burden of Disease
Study 2017. IHME, 2018. (Health Effects Institute 2019).
Development Goal monitoring initiatives (Fig. 1.2). (UN Environment, 2018) In addi-
tion to air and water quality, soil quality has significant implications for human health
yet can suffer from pollution from industry, mining, or waste disposal. In Europe, sites
with likely soil contamination number 340,000 with only one-third of these under-
going detailed study and only 15 percent of those remediated. (Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations 2015) In the US, the Environmental Protection
Agency has remediated 9.3 million ha of contaminated land with 160 contaminated
sites on the Superfund National Priorities List remaining to be evaluated and 49 new
sites proposed to be added to the list. In addition to contamination, other challenges
to soil sustainability include erosion and loss of organic carbon. (Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations 2015)
Similarly, the abundance of energy, preferably produced from minimally polluting and
renewable resources, and clean water is essential for society’s survival. Like the quality of
air, water, and soil, energy and water use are closely tied to human activity. The world has
nearly tripled its energy consumption since 1971 (Fig. 1.3). (International Energy Agency.
IEA, 2020) Fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) continue to dominate the production of
energy with the attendant impacts from mining and extraction and subsequent combus-
tion of these sources which releases greenhouse gas emissions into the air which contain
carbon that had been long-sequestered in the earth. Combustion of fossil fuels diminishes
air quality. In addition to considering total energy production, it is important to evaluate
energy efficiency, which has only improved by 1.2 percent from 2017 to 2018. Improving
energy efficiency is one of the best strategies available to cutting energy consumption
Overview of data science and sustainability analysis 3
100%
90%
70%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Overall Rivers Open Water Groundwater
Bodies
Fig. 1.2 Proportion of water bodies with good ambient water quality (percent) in 2017 (UN Environ-
ment 2018).
and associated pollution. (International Energy Agency 2019) The production of energy,
along with many other activities, including agriculture consumes water. Correspondingly,
as the population has increased and clean water supplies have diminished, water scarcity
is a reality for approximately one-half of the global population. (Boretti and Rosa, 2019)
16,000
14,000
Energy (million tons oil equivalent)
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear Hydro Biofuels and waste Other
Fig. 1.3 World total energy supply by source (million tons of oil equivalent). (International Energy
Agency. IEA, 2020).
4 Data science applied to sustainability analysis
Challenges faced in achieving sustainability include improving food and water secu-
rity, maintaining biodiversity, reducing air and water pollution, reducing greenhouse
gas emissions, increasing reuse and recycling, and increasing system-level efficiencies in
energy, urban, agricultural and industrial systems.
Furthermore, extracting and disposing of the materials we need to make the equip-
ment, devices, and food we need to run our society can be unsustainable, generating
pollution and operating without concern for the long-term availability of critical
materials. In fact, the very technologies society is relying on to address climate change,
including wind turbines, solar panels, and lithium-ion batteries, rely on metals (cobalt,
nickel, copper, rare earths) that are mined, often in developing countries where envi-
ronmental regulations are often insufficient to protect populations from exposure to
pollution in the air, water, and soil. (Sovacool et al., 2020)
Conserving natural lands is an important part of ensuring a healthy and productive
future for human society. Natural lands such as grasslands, wetlands, and forests provide
innumerable ecosystems services such as mitigating floods, sequestering carbon, and
enhancing biodiversity. Targeted conservation initiatives are required to slow the pace
and extent of extinction, improves environmental quality, and retain the inspirational
value of nature. (Balvanera, 2019)
Economic and consumer preference drivers often can favor technology and soci-
etal developments that advance towards sustainability, but law and policy are important
drivers as well. (Ashford and Hall, 2011) For example, one reason energy efficiency
gains have faltered (Fig. 1.4) is a lack of clear policy to advance energy efficiency.
(International Energy Agency 2019)
Finally, social well-being, in part as indicated by the portion of the world’s popula-
tion that has can viably provide food and other basic needs for themselves and their
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2000-2009 2010-2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Fig. 1.4 Global Improvements in Primary Energy Intensity 2000–20186.
Overview of data science and sustainability analysis 5
900 100%
800 90%
700 80%
70%
Percent of People
600
Million People
60%
500
50%
400
40%
300 30%
200 20%
100 10%
0 0%
East Asia and Europe and Latin America Middle East South Asia Sub-Saharan World Total
Pacific Central Asia and the and Africa
Carribean North Africa
Population 2013 Population 2015 % 2013 % 2015
Fig. 1.5 Number of people and percent of population at the International Poverty Line of $1.90/day
(2011 PPP). (World Bank 2018)
6 Data science applied to sustainability analysis
could collect data that would support these efforts and use the results of these analyses in
policymaking. Additionally, this book could be used in data science and systems analysis
classrooms to provide case study examples, especially at the graduate student level.
In the remainder of this introductory chapter, we review different types of analy-
ses that guide our understanding of and action towards increasing sustainability. We
provide an overview of data science tools that can be used in sustainability analyses.
Finally, we introduce the different case studies readers will encounter in the remaining
chapters. We note that the concluding chapter of this book summarizes data gaps and
research needs for the further building of data science applications in sustainability
analysis.
Fig. 1.6 Examples of sustainability analysis types that are increasingly using data science techniques.
Overview of data science and sustainability analysis 7
designing membranes that exhibit less fouling in water treatment applications thereby
reducing energy and chemicals used in wastewater treatment to exploring next genera-
tion lithium-ion battery chemistries. Additionally, as the Industrial Internet of Things
continues to expand, analysts will apply data science techniques to identify opportuni-
ties to improve the energy, water, and material efficiency of industrial processes. Finally,
evaluating the progress of consumers’ adoption of technology that will be more energy
or water efficient, for example, is another important type of sustainability analysis. This
type of analysis could be based on earth observation data in the case of adoption of large
infrastructure or based on social media posts that indicate shifts in technology use in the
home, on the road, or in the workplace.
Two mainstays of sustainable systems analysis are life cycle assessment (LCA) and
materials flow analysis (MFA). Whereas LCA evaluates the environmental effects of a
product or process – from fuels to electronics to foods – MFA tracks the flows of com-
modities within a system boundary, which could be a city, a region, or a nation. LCA
and MFA are at the very beginning of applying data science techniques, in general
because datasets are often insufficiently large to allow data science approaches to offer
value. As the data revolution continues, these two analysis types have many opportunities
to leverage data science techniques.
Finally, evaluations of social well-being are another important pillar of sustainability
analyses because sustainability is often described as having three pillars – economic,
social, and environmental. One expanding enabler of using data science approaches in
social well-being evaluations is satellite imagery, which provides a bird’s eye view of
living conditions for Earth’s inhabitants. While these data can show us these conditions,
they cannot identify what has caused them. This second and critical step will require
the linkage of image interpretation and causal analysis.
Regardless of analysis type, data availability is a cornerstone of all of these analyses.
In some instances that remain data sparse, the use of data science techniques in these
areas is anticipatory rather than widespread. Furthermore, the examples we provide here
are not all-encompassing and the list of types of sustainability analyses that benefit from
data science approaches today and into the future will evolve and grow.
‘W. Scott.
‘Iff my brother could bee here sooner, I wish he would come, and
Robt. also, for I mean to stay from home, and our time will much
depend on their coming.’
For a notice of a visit paid by Beardie to Glasgow in February 1714,
on the occasion of the death of his father-in-law, see under that date.