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Joseph Huber
The Monetary
Turning Point
From Bank Money to
Central Bank Digital
Currency (CBDC)
The Monetary Turning Point
Joseph Huber
The Monetary
Turning Point
From Bank Money to Central Bank Digital
Currency (CBDC)
Joseph Huber
Berlin, Berlin, Germany
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer
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Contents
v
vi CONTENTS
Index 189
Abbreviations and Glossary
AI Artificial Intelligence
Bank money Bank-account balances in the form of sight deposits (aka
demand deposits, overnight deposits) as well as savings
and time deposits
BIS Bank for International Settlements
Cash equivalents Includes near-money such as certificates of deposit, as
well as short-term securities such as treasury bills, bank
acceptances, commercial paper, repos
CBDC Central Bank Digital Currency, digital central-bank
money
CC Complementary Currency
Central-bank money Money issued by central banks, in the form of notes,
reserves, and soon also CBDC. Coins are mostly still
treasury money, but circulated via the central banks, too
CPI Consumer price inflation
Digital Token Token money in the form of digitised currency units
DC Digital Currency
DCEP Digital Currency Electronic Payment System (China)
DeFi Decentralised Finance, generic term for peer-to-peer
financial services
DLT Distributed Ledger Technology, or decentral blockchain
technology
ECB European Central Bank
FASB Financial Accounting Standards Board
Forex Foreign exchange
GAAP Generally Accepted Accounting Principles
ix
x ABBREVIATIONS AND GLOSSARY
xi
List of Boxes
xiii
CHAPTER 1
period, the issue of banknotes and treasury bills was largely unregulated.
In Europe this resulted in recurrent over-issue of paper money, depreci-
ation and acceptance problems. The then governors of the later United
States (U.S.) were more considered and successful with the issue of their
colonial bills.
In response to the problems, European countries gradually introduced
the banknote monopoly of the central banks since around the middle of
the nineteenth century. This was the second monetary turning point. The
banknote monopoly was based on the gold standard, which was supposed
to act as an artificial limit to the money supply. However, the gold stan-
dard was not consistently successful, due to the unprecedented growth
pressure resulting from industrialisation and urbanisation.
As a result, a third monetary turning point occurred. The centuries-
old banking practice of mutual clearing of claims and liabilities led to
the spread of book money in the form of central-bank reserves and bank
deposit money, involving cashless payment by transferring current account
balances, and becoming more broad-based in the decades around 1900.
This gave rise to the bank money regime, more firmly established in the
course of the 1920–1970s. It again led to recurrent over-issue of money,
over-crediting and over-indebtedness. Debt and currency crises, banking
and financial crises were becoming more frequent worldwide. The effec-
tiveness of monetary policy diminished, money creation got largely out
of control, and the bank money regime looks set to approach a state of
ungovernability.
Put another way, a fourth monetary turning point is now imminent in
order to get a grip on the present problems. The change occurs by way
of another recomposition of the money supply, with new types of money
emerging and competing for future dominance, while bank money, still
dominant today, is about to losing importance, and traditional cash (coins
and notes) disappearing altogether.
One candidate in the competition for the dominant position has
already been confirmed: Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). Other
candidates may well include the one or other cryptocurrency, be it mone-
tarily uncovered or in the form of a stablecoin, that is, a cryptocoin stably
pegged to the US dollar or another reserve currency unit at a ratio of 1:1.
Such stablecoins have potential beyond the current teething troubles of
that new type of money. By contrast, uncovered and unwarranted cryp-
tocurrencies such as Bitcoin today are too slow, energy-consuming and
expensive to prevail against the competition. Others like Ether based on a
4 J. HUBER
1 Atlanticcouncil.org/cbdctracker.
1 CORE POINTS FOR INTRODUCTION 5
money is striving to assert itself against both. This applies to the Western
world, not to China where cryptocurrency transactions have been banned
in September 2021, thus barring any digital competition to the digital
yuan within China.
One will ask why banks should not also issue digital money, as a
tokenised variety of bank book money. However, this would be tanta-
mount to a throwback to the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, when
the banks issued their private banknotes, just as royal and princely trea-
suries in Europe issued paper bills of their own, fraught with various
difficulties in circulation, until private and treasury paper money was
replaced in the course of the nineteenth century by the central-bank note
monopoly. Although central banks act primarily as “bank of the banks”
today, they are unlikely to tolerate such a throwback.
Hypothetically, banks cooperating in a sector-wide syndicate could
certainly act as issuers of a stablecoin. However, this would make them
subject to pertinent regulation. In all likelihood, regulation to be expected
will stipulate full coverage in other types of money and cash equivalents,
rather than still granting the current status of bank money based on frac-
tional coverage in central-bank reserves. From today’s perspective, this is
not attractive for a bank. By contrast, for non-bank financial institutions,
stablecoins are definitely of interest, for example for shadow banks and
various web and IT corporations with hundreds of millions of customers.
As digital currency spreads and the share of bank money declines, banks
will once again become financial intermediaries, that is, loan brokers and
investors using CBDC and probably also cryptocurrencies and stable-
coins. The status of banks as monetary financial institutions, as creators
of bank money, will diminish accordingly. However, a diminishing role
of bank money, possibly its distant demise, does not mean the end of
banking. Credit and banks have existed since early antiquity. Today, in
a monetarised and financialised world, banks remain indispensable. It is
just that they evolve with the times. Currency exchange services and PSP,
money lenders, investment institutes and a multitude of other financial
institutions will conduct their business with CBDC, cryptocurrencies and
stablecoins just as they have with all previous types of money.
At present, banks are still in a privileged position. They alone are
eligible for refinancing with the central bank. Bank money is allowed
to circulate on the basis of only a small fractional reserve. This in turn
involves extensive central-bank support and state warranty for the existing
stock of bank money—and thus for the banking sector itself. As a result,
6 J. HUBER
systemically relevant large banks and their bank money have acquired
para-state status.
However, this too has just begun to change. The near-monopoly of
bank money in public payment transactions is going to dissolve due to
the rise in CBDC and private digital monies. In addition, non-bank finan-
cial institutions and government budgets are now being refinanced by
central banks indirectly. Some central banks even contribute to govern-
ment spending in direct ways. This is declared to be about temporary
unconventional measures, but it looks more like a new normal is taking
hold here.
The range of monetary and financial services provided by banks and
non-monetary financial institutions has evolved a great deal. In earlier
times, there was no financial sector beyond the banks (except for insur-
ance companies). The banks were the financial sector. In the meantime,
new PSP as well as shadow banks in the form of new credit institu-
tions and investment agencies have joined the traditional banks in large
numbers. With the spread of CBDC and private digital monies, and the
accompanying relative decline in bank money, the differences between
the traditional banking sector and those non-bank financial institutions
are likely to even out.
The new developments are changing the relationship between central
banks and previous non-bank financial institutions. For example, central
banking is no longer just about refinancing banks. Central banks have
by now effectively assumed responsibility for the weal and woe of the
entire financial sector, for the stabilisation of shadow banks and financial
markets as well as for the indirect refinancing of public debt. At 40–60%
of GDP, government budgets represent an integral part of the financial
economy. Basically, this has never been different, although on a smaller
scale. At any rate, treating private and public finances as worlds apart is
unworldly. They surely form two different sectors with partly different
modes of operation, but they are intertwined and interdependent.
In response to the financial crises in recent decades, central banks have
begun taking into account the extended scope and interconnectedness
of banking, private and public finances. This is not about a retrograde
merging of monetary, financial-market and fiscal responsibilities. Rather,
it is about the necessary realignment of the division of these functions
through reassessing the role of monetary policy for both financial markets
and public finances. In the face of possibly overshooting financial inter-
ests, whether from the private or public sector, central banks must be able
1 CORE POINTS FOR INTRODUCTION 7
1 For a taxonomy of cryptocurrencies, cf. Bech and Garratt (2017, pp. 57–62) and
Adrian and Mancini-Griffoli (2019a, pp. 2–5; 2019b). For a taxonomy of 100% e-money
and stablecoins, see Hess (2019).
at face value by the treasury to the central bank. The treasury receives
the amount as a credit entry into its central-bank transaction account.
The proceeds result in genuine seigniorage, that is, the gain from money
creation as the difference between the coins’ face value and their produc-
tion costs. However, coins today account for only 2% of cash, or about
0.2% of the official stock of money in public circulation.2
98% of cash consists of central-bank notes. They are commissioned
by the currency area’s central bank from the state’s printing office
for banknotes. As monetary authorities, central banks today have the
sovereign monopoly on banknotes, as they are still called after their private
origins.
Central banks issue all cash—notes as well as coins—according to the
banks’ demand. A central bank does so in disbursement of credit to
a bank against collateral, mainly sovereign bonds. Cash is thus loaned
into circulation by the central bank to the banking sector. The banks in
For forty years they have swept an imposingly large number of unfair
laws from the statute books of America. In this brief time these serfs have
set themselves free—essentially. Men could not have done as much for
themselves in that time without bloodshed, at least they never have, and
that is an argument that they didn’t know how.
All these great and indeed immense victories for the cause of
human freedom have been accomplished by moral force and not by
physical force. Physical force as a means of promoting women’s
freedom was never even heard of till about six years ago, and for the
first two and a half years of their activity the so-called militant
suffragists did not use physical violence toward their adversaries;
they suffered violence far more than they inflicted it.
At the outset, so long as they confined themselves merely to
sensational and eccentric means of propaganda, they could hardly
be looked upon as a physical force party; they undoubtedly did
service to our common cause by making the claims of women more
widely known; there is probably hardly a village, hardly a family in
which the claims of women to share in the representative system of
the country has not been eagerly discussed. This to a very large
extent we owe to the activities of the “militants.” But when they
departed from the attitude they first adopted, of suffering violence but
using none, in my judgment they put themselves in the wrong
morally; and if judged from the point of view of practical success
have put back the cause rather than promoted it. For twenty-six
years from 1886 to 1912 women’s suffrage was never once defeated
in the House of Commons. The Conciliation Bill, which had been
carried in second reading in 1911 by a majority 316 to 143 after a
truce from militancy of nearly eighteen months, was defeated in 1912
by a narrow majority. This was very largely due to the intense
indignation and resentment caused by the window-smashing
outrages which had taken place a few weeks earlier.
The carrying of a women’s suffrage amendment to the
government Reform Bill is the next stage either of victory or defeat
which awaits us. If militancy is renewed, defeat is almost certain. The
average man is not convinced of the value of conferring full
citizenship on women by hearing of tradesmen’s windows being
broken, or of attempts to set houses and theaters on fire. The
militants often claim that a display of physical violence is the only
way to success. This, I maintain, is a wholly mistaken reading of the
facts. Our victories have been won through convincing large masses
of quiet, sensible, average men and women that the citizenship of
women would be good for women themselves and for the State as a
whole. We can point to the activities of such women as Julia Ward
Howe and Jane Addams in the United States, of Florence
Nightingale and Josephine Butler in Great Britain, and can more and
more convince our countrymen of the futility and absurdity and the
loss to the community of excluding such women, and women at
large, from the rights of citizenship. I regard the militants as
misguided enthusiasts, and believe that at this moment they are the
most dangerous obstacles in the way of the immediate success of
our cause in England. But when I compare the degree of violence
they have used with the excesses of, say, the French Revolution or
the destructive fury which swept over our own and other countries, in
connection with the Reformation, or with the awful violence which
has occasionally been associated with the Labor movement both in
this country and in the United States, we may feel that there is no
cause for panic and still less for despair. The political emancipation
of women has made immense strides toward complete realization in
the English-speaking countries on both sides of the Atlantic. Every
victory scored by either of us helps the other. The latest honors are
with America. We do not grudge them; but hope soon to vie with
them.
A WAY OUT OF THE CANAL BLUNDER: REPEAL
THE EXEMPTION
Dear Helen:
A cowardly fear of being funny silenced me last night, but, now,
refreshed by sleep and by your absence, knowing that you are well
on your road, I mount my slow nag, and, armored to be dull, come
pricking after. I know that words are creatures of chance, subject to
jeopardy from all the winds that blow, and that in writing I am only
increasing the hazard of misunderstanding, “harnessing for a yet
more perilous adventure,” but despite this I follow soberly behind,
your own words upon my lips.
You said, in part, you may recall, that our little group, and
especially the women among us, are movement-mad; that peaceful,
esthetic conversation has been done to death by furious talk on
wrongs and reforms; that the amenities of civilized society, so you
said, have fallen beneath the ax of chop-logic; that even at dinners
we women grow red and shrill over astonishing topics—eugenics,
political nominees, prison menus, and woman suffrage; that art, “the
world’s sweet inn,” has become a house of brawlers; that to speak of
dancing is to bring up in a dance-hall, and to discuss a play is to
become entangled in a wreckage of commandments. All of Pan’s
gay world is silenced, you declared, shut off with a cordon of linked
question marks; that the very laughter in our throats has become
brazen and controversial—the derisive laughter of the Hebrew
Scriptures; that, oh, dreadful climax, you will open your purse to no
more reforms, unless it be to a Society for the Reformation of
Manners.
When you quote Falstaff’s plaint that “It were better to be eaten to
death with rust than scoured to nothing with perpetual motion,” I
understand what you mean—that is my misfortune in debate. But are
you really enamoured of rust? You, who would keep all talk in low
relief, sweet, level, and cool as the heads on a Greek frieze, are you
not turning from a world that is alive and alight to wander in a land of
shades?
Esthetic ideals were shaped for us by the centuries that lie
between us and Myron. What wonder that talk moves smoothly upon
such age-worn ways! Slave-owning Greeks and subtle Italians
wrought out, in sweat and toil, arts that were old when a social
conscience was an amœba. In sweat and strife men and women are
blazing new trails to-day; and the overcoming of inertia still
generates heat. But, once more, something comes forth, shining,
from the lustration of fire.
Smile down upon us from your tranquil bleacher! It is quite true
that we are ravished by the dazzling, many-sided iridescence of what
we take for a new Truth, hailing its radiance with our uncouth cries.
We buffet hotly the ideas that each is driving toward his goal, but
when, out of the rush and turmoil, some one scores a touchdown the
whole field cheers.
When a new country is discovered—though it be a desert—the
explorer plants his flag with a shout; and there is as high authority, in
the authentic tribune of men’s hearts, for our passion as for your
calm. The “lark of aspiration” must sing as it mounts.
A modern master of friendship has said that, after all, there are
only two real subjects of conversation—love and conduct. As love is
best in tête-à-tête, that leaves us morals. Thinking of it in cold blood,
it seems as though we might be calmer talkers, but when have
morals not been associated with heat, here or hereafter? The part of
your charge that I find strangest is that this noisy super-heatedness,
that you impute to us, is a new evil. Where is your memory, Girl?
Mine takes up the thread about the year that you were born, when
people were still talking back over the questionable morality of one
set of men freeing the slaves of another set, and of the political right
of the Southern States to secede. I see a room, a hollow square of
books, the air blue with smoke, torn by lightning-jags of talk. Voices
—raised voices, dear Lady—talked of Predestination and Free Will.
They talked as we poor weaklings of this Laodicean age may never
hope to talk, hurling Eternal Damnation at each others’ heads and
imputations of blasphemy, in horrid whispers. Goethe’s Elective
Affinities and the doctrine of one Thomas Paine were discussed;
Darwin, in relation to the osteoplastic romance of Eve. Apostolic
Succession, Infant Damnation, Predestination—these are some of
the live-wires of another day. I never hear the echo of raised voices,
down the long vista of my past, without realizing that real talk is
going forward—morals, preferably with a dash of love.
To-day, we, true children of those senior wranglers, have
inescapably, in our blood, the passion for moral research; “the
invisible masters that reign in our innermost cells” have
predetermined our choice. The names of all the protagonists have
changed; the battleground has shifted from skyey metaphysics to the
slum street; from Infant Damnation to Certified Milk for Babies; but
we, too, are doing battle for our realities. In the hospitals and the
settlement houses are the children and grandchildren of our old
circuit-riders and militant bishops. The children of those who warred
for righteousness still seek and serve.
Your quarrel is not with our little group of noisy talkers; your
quarrel, Madam, is with the leaven of the world, that froths and
foams and stirs because it is working. In the stormy schools of
religious controversy—in that old, warm talk on morals, when the
souls of men were the stake—we learned that we are our brothers’
keepers, and that idea, once generated, will be conserved,
generation by generation, and the force of it will not be lost. As they
strove to insure to men eternal life, their children strive that men may
inherit the earth.
Our contention, yours and mine, is the old Hellenic-Hebraic clash
of ideals.
“Beauty and Light!” you cry.
“Justice and Right!” comes the response.
We are both right, but my right is deeper and more elemental
than yours. Yours exists for a few, happy, chosen spirits; mine for the
whole, wide travailing world. Yours rests upon mine; mine does not
rest upon yours.
“Rest!” you jeer. “You people never rest, and you let no one else
rest.”
“‘Restfulness,’” I cry, with inky vivacity, “Stevenson told us long
ago that ‘restfulness is a quality for cattle.’”