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Cognitive Operations
Models that Open the Black
Box and Predict our
Decisions
Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos
Cognitive Operations
Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos
Cognitive Operations
Models that Open the Black Box and Predict our
Decisions
Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos
University of Southampton Business
School
Southampton, UK
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer
Nature Switzerland AG 2023
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the
Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights
of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on
microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and
retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology
now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc.
in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such
names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for
general use.
The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and informa-
tion in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither
the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with
respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been
made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps
and institutional affiliations.
This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature
Switzerland AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
To Özgür
Acknowledgments
This book benefited greatly from the input and support provided by
a number of people. I am grateful to Robert Aumann, Elliot Bendoly,
Craig Carter, Stephanie Eckerd, Alberto Franco, Gerd Gigerenzer, Paul
Goodwin, Werner Güth, Çağrı Haksöz, Raimo Hämäläinen, Stefan
Herzog, Martin Kunc, Stephen Leider, Gilberto Montibeller, Jon
Malpass, Laura Martignon, Thorsten Pachur, Fotios Petropoulos, Jochen
Reb, Hersh Shefrin, Enno Siemsen, Leonidas Spiliopoulos, Aris Syntetos,
Özgür Şimşek, Riccardo Viale, Jyrki Wallenius, and Rosanna Arquette. I
would also like to thank the organizers and participants of the First and
Second Summer Schools on Behavioural Operational Research at respec-
tively Aalto and Radboud Nijmegen Universities, and the First Innsbruck
Workshop on Behavioral Operations and Supply Chain Management, as
well as the students of the postgraduate module Behavioural Operations
at the University of Southampton. I am more than indebted to Juan
Pablo Fernández for preparing graphics, performing computational anal-
yses, and offering writing suggestions. Finally, a big thanks goes to Alec
Selwyn, Jessica Harrison, and Abarna Antonyraj, my editorial support at
Palgrave Macmillan and Springer Nature.
vii
Contents
ix
x CONTENTS
4 Strategic Interaction 75
4.1 Giving and Receiving Ultimatums: Theory and Data 77
4.2 Inequity Aversion 80
4.3 Fast-and-Frugal Trees 83
4.4 Predicting Response Time Patterns 87
4.5 Cognitive Processes and Transparency 91
4.6 Theory Integration: Behavioral Outcomes 93
4.7 Beyond Bargaining Games 94
4.8 Summary and Segue 95
Appendix 187
Bibliography 199
Author Index 225
Subject Index 231
About the Author
xi
List of Figures
√ √
Fig. 2.1 The utility function u(x) = x for x ≥ 0 and −2 −x
for x < 0 17
Fig. 2.2 Graphical representation of the minimax heuristic
for the choice between an option X with minimum
outcome x min and an option Y with minimum outcome
y min . For simplicity we assume that x min / = y min 20
Fig. 2.3 Graphical representation of the maximax heuristic
for the choice between an option X with maximum
outcome x max and an option Y with maximum outcome
y max . For simplicity we assume that x max / = y max 20
Fig. 3.1 Prospect theory’s utility function u(x) = x 0.88 for x ≥ 0
and −2.25(−x)0.88 for x < 0, as estimated by Tversky
and Kahneman 41
Fig. 3.2 Prospect theory’s probability-weighting functions
p 0.61
w( p) = 1 for p corresponding to x ≥ 0
[ p 0.61 +(1− p)0.61 ] 0.61
p 0.69
and 1 for p corresponding to x < 0,
[ p 0.69 +(1− p)0.69 ] 0.69
as estimated by Tversky and Kahneman 42
Fig. 3.3 Representation of the priority heuristic for gains
as a fast-and-frugal tree. To simplify the last step we
assume that xmax / = ymax 45
xiii
xiv LIST OF FIGURES
xvii
xviii LIST OF TABLES
Surgeons really aren’t much different from skilled mechanics, except that
they’re not so skilled. If I can get to study their motions, I can speed them
up. The speed of an operation often means the difference between life and
death.
Some of the descriptive models in this book are well known in behav-
ioral operations, while others are little or not at all known to the field
and are imported from core behavioral sciences such as psychology and
economics, and yet other models are developed for the first time here.
The selection of models presented serves three goals. The first goal is, as
suggested by Stephanie Eckerd and Elliot Bendoly,9 to enhance pluralism
in the study of behavioral operations and to ensure the openness of the
field to new points of view. As we will see, most models in the field to
date come from a single approach to descriptive modeling. The book
introduces an alternative approach as well. The second goal is to support
readers in selecting a modeling approach that suits the decision problem
at hand. The third goal is to point out cases where the approaches have
been integrated, and show the benefits that integration brings. These
goals are achieved by introducing a spectrum of modeling ideas that have
been used fruitfully in disciplines such as cognitive psychology, behav-
ioral economics, and machine learning,10 and by applying these ideas to
the study of operations.
Keauleinakahi ordered to pierce the double canoe of Kaumaielieli and kill Kana
and Niheu, 444.
sword-fish of Kapepeekauila, 444.
warrior in charge of the ocean, 444.
warrior of Kapepeekauila meets and attacks the double canoe; is struck and
killed by Niheu, 444.
Keawekekahialiiokamoku, 364.
Kualii likened to, 388, 392.
[xxiv]ruled Hawaii four generations before Kamehameha, 388.
turned salt water into fresh, 388.
Keawewaihe, 396.
Keelekoha, 382.
Keinohoomanawanui again sees an armed company and says “Our death is close
upon us,” 466.
credited by Kakuhihewa as the cause of victories, 468.
definition of, 466.
discredited by a farmer for the victories, 468.
fears at dagger sign of being discovered, 466.
fears for the result of Kalelealuaka’s wish, 464.
gains victory in battles with Pueonui’s men, 468.
made an officer of Kakuhihewa’s, 468.
seeing an armed company approaching, fears death, 466.
termed by Kalelealuaka a coward, 466.
Kekamaluahaku, 24.
Kekea, or Albino, 8.
Kekea Kapu, 4.
Kekuawalu, 394.
Kemau, 192.
Keohe, 344.
Keoneoio (Maui), Koi returning from Kauai stayed over at, 232.
Kiinoho and Kiihele accompany Kepakailiula to Hana but not permitted to land,
506.
brothers of Hina, 498.
decide to find a wife for Kepakailiula, 500.
definition of, 498.
directed by dream, start for Paliuli, 498.
join in the fight, 508.
left Paliuli in charge of the gods, 502.
made joint kings of Oahu by Kepakailiula, reserving to himself and Kakuhihewa
rulers’ rights, 510.
mourn on leaving Paliuli, 502.
Puna chiefs of high rank, 498.
Kikakapu, butterfly-fish, 576.
put up in place of kapu stick, 576.
sacred fish, 240.
Kikenuiaewa, 24;
of Ewa, 342.
Koakea, 186;
heights of, adjoining Waipio, 208.
Umi meets Piimaiwaa at, 182.
Kohikohiokalani, 24.
Kolea and mate fly up and inquire of Makalii of the loud-voiced god Kaeha, 524.
reports Makalii’s message, 524.
said to Ulili, “Let us fly high above Kana and call to him”, 444.
told of Kaulu hiding in the palm leaf, 524.
Kolea and Ulili are told by Hina wherein Niheu’s strength lies, 446.
fall down on the hill of Haupu, 444.
met Kapepeekauila, barely escaped death; sent to tell Keauleinakahi, his
warrior, 444.
not a formidable pair, 444.
seeing Hina being taken, flew and held Niheu by the hair, 446.
swift messengers of Kapepeekauila, sent to look for Kana and Niheu, 444.
Kolohia, 374.
Kona and Koolau (Molokai) continue the battle against Kekaha, 418.
bones of chief of, 320;
rebels from, arrive, 330.
district, defeated king of, 394.
district, the largest, 338.
dividing line of, 360–62.
dwell in; house stands in, 286, 304.
Ehunuikaimalino king of, 228.
first meets the eye, 374.
given to Ehu, 206;
Kapalilua, 336.
Heapae chief of, 320;
Lono at temples in, 330.
Kapaihiahilina sails for, 356;
returns to, 362.
Kauhi through, sees not its people, 338.
Kauhiakama reports on, 336.
[xxviii]known from below, 378.
men from, 344.
Moihala chief of, son of Heapae, 320.
stands forth to sight, 28;
plainly seen, 374.
term for the lower regions, 378.
the sun warmed the selfish chiefs of, 394.
Umi desired to live in, 228–30.
whose stone floor burns, 394.
Koolau and Kona (Molokai) chiefs battle against those of Kekaha, 418.
chiefs of, gave up to Kualii all Molokai, 420.
chiefs of, hear war is to be carried into Kalaupapa, 418.
defeated, lands on the, side come into Paepae’s possession, 418.
war canoes from all the side of, go to battle, 418.
Kowili, 372.
Ku (Kualii), 30, 372, 376, 380, 386, 390–96, 414–16, 420, 428.
arrayed in his feather cloak, 384, 416.
encompassed by, is the island, 400.
haole from Tahiti, a god, 394.
has left but few priests, 386, 416.
holds up the rain, 378;
led to earth, 380.
indeed, whose is Tahiti for, 374.
is brought forth in the forest, 384.
is indeed king, 384–86, 416.
puts on his loin-cloth for war, 382.
returning to Oahu; sailing to Kauai, 374.
the lehua eater, 286, 304.
uncomparable, 390–94.
urged to be merciful and spare his wrath, 388.
Ku and Hina, male attendant reports the conduct of their two charges to, 542.
parents of Kepakailiula, 498, 540.
son and daughter of, brought up under strict kapu, 540.
Kuaimakani, 180.