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PALGRAVE STUDIES IN
EUROPEAN UNION POLITICS
Series Editors: Michelle Egan, Neill Nugent and William E. Paterson
PREPARING
FOR BREXIT
Actors,
Negotiations and
Consequences
Lee McGowan
Palgrave Studies in European Union Politics
Series Editors
Michelle Egan
American University
Washington, DC
USA
Neill Nugent
Manchester Metropolitan University
Manchester, UK
William E. Paterson
Aston University
Birmingham, UK
Following on the sustained success of the acclaimed European Union
Series, which essentially publishes research-based textbooks, Palgrave
Studies in European Union Politics publishes cutting edge research-
driven monographs. The remit of the series is broadly defined, both in
terms of subject and academic discipline. All topics of significance con-
cerning the nature and operation of the European Union potentially fall
within the scope of the series. The series is multidisciplinary to reflect the
growing importance of the EU as a political, economic and social phe-
nomenon.
v
vi Preface
membership alive but would have allowed the government and wider
civil society to finally make a case for Europe. The vote to ‘leave’ was
unexpected and threw up many challenges, possible opportunities and
risks but also uncertainty about how to prepare for Brexit and the nature
of Brexit. This book charts developments from June 2016. It has, on
reflection, been a difficult one to write as statements, developments and
events have continually changed. The issue of the UK’s divorce from the
EU also coincided with my own divorce and many a time the similari-
ties have been striking as issues about money and the financial implica-
tions abound, uncertainty over the new settlement linger and questions
arise about the desirability of new relationships or going it alone. This
book was written in the first half of 2017. At times it has been a fran-
tic exercise given the speed of developments and I would like to take
this opportunity to thank a number of special colleagues for helping me
get through everything. I dedicate this work to my three sons, Oliver,
George and Tom as their generation is the one that has to confront and
successfully manage the implications of Brexit.
1 Leaving Europe 1
2 Understanding Europe 17
Index 127
vii
List of Figures and Tables
ix
CHAPTER 1
Leaving Europe
On the 25th March 2017 the leaders of the EU’s Member State gov-
ernments met in Rome to mark the 60th anniversary of the sign-
ing of the Treaty of Rome, establishing both the European Economic
Community and EURATOM. This original 1957 blueprint for Europe
On the eve of the March 2017 summit in Rome Pope Francis had
warned against the ‘false forms of security’ promised by populists and
made a plea for greater European solidarity. Jean Claude Juncker, the
President of the European Commission, described Europe as a ‘conti-
nent of stability and peace, but that the EU is not in the best form and
shape we could be in’ (BBC interview with Juncker, 24 March 2017
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39375966). There was an
ever growing realisation that the EU needed to be able to connect more
with the public and demonstrate why the European project still mat-
tered. The EU’s room for manoeuvre here has always been limited,
and support from both Member State governments and the media have
always been essential as information providers and opinion formers. In
March 2017 the leaders of the 27 EU member state governments agreed
on a new Declaration of Rome. This recognised ‘these times of change
and aware of the concerns of citizens, we ….pledge to work towards a
safe and secure Europe, a prosperous and sustainable Europe, a social
Europe and a stronger Europe…..we as leaders working together within
the European Council and among our institutions, will ensure that
today’s agenda is implemented, so as to become tomorrow’s reality. We
have united for the better. Europe is our common future’ (European
Council, Rome Declaration, 25 March 2017). The declaration empha-
sises the need to listen and respond to citizens’ concerns while reaffirm-
ing commitment to further developing the European integration project.
Agreement on this text and the latter goal might have been impossible
had the UK attended the summit.
The win for ‘leave’ was certainly neither the outcome wanted nor
expected by David Cameron’s government. Few observers of the politi-
cal scene had predicted this result. Had Cameron realised that leave was a
real possibility, it is very unlikely that he would have called the referendum
in the first place. The significance of this decision to leave the EU can-
not be underestimated. It truly represents a seismic moment in post war
British politics. David Cameron fell on his sword and quickly resigned as
Prime Minister. The British political scene of late June/early July was in
some turmoil as the realities of the decision dawned. A new Conservative
administration led by Theresa May wasted little time in following the
guidance of the referendum result. She had declared her intention dur-
ing her campaign to lead the Conservative party when she stated that
‘Brexit means Brexit’. She added that ‘there will be no attempts to remain
inside the EU, no attempts to rejoin it by the back door, and no second
1 LEAVING EUROPE 5
but received little coverage in the tabloid press. Ahead lay real differ-
ences over the exact nature of ‘leave’ and over the attitudes of the EU27.
There is also an internal angle to the negotiations and the May govern-
ment found itself facing demands from the devolved administrations to be
much more actively involved in the process. The Prime Minister needs to
ensure that the very process of negotiating withdrawal does not unsettle
the constitutional fabric of the British state itself. May’s hopes of unit-
ing the United Kingdom are a well-intended response to a general unease
which s more likely to intensify. Already there are signs that the ‘remain’
activists and voters are being demonised in the press and bullied at work.
Brexit leaves the country more divided than ever. It has become the pre-
eminent issue in modern day British politics. It will overshadow every
other policy and it looks set to divert the government’s attention away
from a raft of other issues.
Theresa May’s decision to call a snap General Election on 8th June
2017 caught political commentators by surprise. This unexpected
move, and one that she had ruled out previously on several occasions,
was determined directly by the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit pro-
cess. The Prime Minister stated that the holding of a general election
originally (scheduled for May 2020) while the government was locked
in the final stages of negotiations with the EU would prove an unnec-
essary distraction. Three other and more salient reasons for holding an
election three years ahead of schedule are suggested here: Firstly, the
Prime Minister was seeking a larger government majority in the House
of Commons to strengthen her hand in the negotiations with the EU27,
secondly, May needed to have sufficient support on the Conservative
backbenches should the negotiations prove tougher than expected and
lead to compromise solutions that some of the hard Brexiteers such as
Iain Duncan Smith, Bill Cash and John Redwood will find objectiona-
ble and thirdly, some argued that with worsening economic conditions
in 2018/2019 and manifest in rising inflation, lower economic growth,
high levels of personal debt and growing food prices, bringing the elec-
tion forward made much more sense. Her every public utterance referred
to the need for a strong and stable Britain. May remains wedded to the
Brexit cause. Sound-bites such as creating a strong and stable Britain
were never followed up with any discussions on further details.
The Conservative Party manifesto for the June 2017 General Election
identified responding to Brexit and a changing world as one of the five
great challenges facing the country. May stated at its launch that ‘every
1 LEAVING EUROPE 7
Cameron government had urged the electorate to support its line of the
UK remaining in the EU, the advocates of Brexit had never indicated a
clear vision for the UK outside the EU and simply castigated as scare-
mongerers all those who demanded greater clarity on such issues as tar-
iffs, free trade agreements and customs unions. The leave campaign had
presented ‘leave’ as relatively simple and straightforward and means to
allow the UK to regain control and sign its own trade deals with the
outside world. No serious consideration was ever given to the policy
domain and how much Brexit could impact on a range of public pol-
icy issues such as agriculture, the environment, energy and trade. It was
assumed that the UK had sufficient civil servants and experts in place to
secure a Brexit. The frustration among David Cameron’s strategists at
the antics and half-truths of the leave campaign over the UK’s contribu-
tions to the EU budget, immigration control and sovereignty were real
as the leave campaign tapped much more successfully into emotions and
came to trump the remain campaign’s focus on the economic benefits of
membership.
Immediate questions arose in July 2016: Should advisory refer-
enda dictate government policy? Was the referendum result too close?
Does it matter that the vote was fractured and both Northern Ireland
and Scotland voted to remain in the EU? Why did England and Wales
vote for ‘Leave’. What does the UK’s departure from the EU to look
like and can such expectations be delivered. Ultimately, the task of meet-
ing Brexiteers expectations while recognising political sensitivities in
Westminster and across the four constituent nations while simultaneously
trying to work out a deal with the EU meant that the process was always
going to be fraught. With very little preparation done, with little agree-
ment or explanation on what Brexit looks like (e.g. access to single mar-
ket, customs union or better outside under WTO rules) and labouring
under strict time pressures to initiate a process to quell internal dissent,
the challenges posed by Brexit are going to be enormous. In fact, the
more researchers began to scratch under the surface of public policy spe-
cifics, the more issues arose.
The ten months after the vote for Brexit in the United Kingdom
were marked by considerable uncertainty about the objectives and pos-
sible forms that Brexit could take. There was less political turmoil on the
floor of the House of Commons where ultimately power lay, than might
have been expected given the narrow victory. Indeed, with the Labour
1 LEAVING EUROPE 9
party facing continued issues internally over its own leader, Jeremy
Corbyn and the Liberal Democrats providing a much weaker presence in
parliament after the 2015 general election, Theresa May had a relatively
free hand to determine her Brexit strategy and much more than her mere
parliamentary majority of 14 would have suggested.
Significant concerns existed in the House towards the ‘Brexit’ trajec-
tory but it was put on hold within the Labour Party to respect the ref-
erendum result, but also reflected the fact that public opinion had not
noticeably shifted in the ten months following the result. Conservative
Brexiteers on the backbenches remained largely compliant as Brexit
developments were seemingly moving in their favoured direction. This
truce was merely temporary and opposition from the Labour and Liberal
Democrat parties is expected to really ignite in the course of 2018 if
the negotiations on exiting begin to run into serious obstacles. In April
2017 Sir Kier Starmer, the Labour Party’s Shadow Secretary of State for
Exiting the European Union outlined Labour’s opposition to the gov-
ernment’s form of Brexit when he strongly suggested the party’s inten-
tion to vote against the final agreement if the final deal was deemed
too problematic for Britain’s interests (Standard, 25th April 2017,
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/shadow-brexit-secretary-
sir-keir-starmer-sets-out-labours-vision-amid-claims-the-party-is-con-
fused-a3523011.html.). In doing so, he would send Theresa May and
her team back to the negotiating table.
The immediate aftermath of the referendum posed a number of
immediate questions for resolution. These included:
Can the royal prerogative be used to invoke Article 50 or does parlia-
ment need to give its approval?
Do the devolved assemblies have to give their legislative consent to
the triggering of Article 50?
Should there be a referendum on the terms agreed in any new deal?
What does a British position look like and how is it to be determined?
Do the devolved administrations have a substantive or minor role?
Are all other EU member states sympathetic to the UK’s case or will
any special deal risk the spread of contagion across the EU?
What will the cost of the divorce settlement be for the UK?
What happens if a deal does not occur within the two year timetable?
Will the European Parliament be ready to endorse a deal or block a
deal?
10 L. McGOWAN
Many hurdles still remain about the cost of the UK’s divorce from the
EU, the exact terms of a new relationship with the EU and an ongoing
search for new trade deals with other parts of the world. There is also a
longer term problem ahead and it centres on how far the aspirations of
the Brexiteers can be met. Could the populist slogans that for so many
had sounded convincing be secured and what happens if these expected
benefits of a Brexit do not materialise.
This book is neither concerned with revisiting the UK’s history as
an EU Member State nor discussing the road to a referendum. These
have been covered in detail elsewhere (Daddow 2004; Geddes 2013;
McGowan and Phinnemore 2017). Also issues such as establishing a
winning threshold in terms of percentages, and the view of the UK as
a single constituency (thus not contemplating the nature of a fractured
vote across the UK’s constituent parts and the absence of a quadruple
lock) should have been considered when the referendum bill was making
its way through parliament. This book accepts the outcome and focuses
on the Brexit process and primarily developments after the referendum
result in June 2016, and under Theresa May’s government. At its core
this work identifies the key political actors and analyses their efforts
to explain and develop what ‘Brexit means Brexit’ actually means. It
explores the possible options and negotiations ahead as the UK govern-
ment embarks on finding a new relationship with the EU.
Much uncertainty lies ahead as we are in unknown territory. There
will be a steep learning curve for all. No EU Member State has ever left
the EU and the drafters of Article 50 never truly expected it to be trig-
gered at any time. This interpretation goes to explain the inclusion of a
rather unrealistic two year timetable once the process has formally com-
menced. There are three issues to resolve; the UK’s divorce from the
EU; a new settlement with the EU and a series of new trade deals with
third countries. There are multiple actors at play in all three sets of nego-
tiations and as such the energies involved from all players will be con-
siderable throughout and the final positions will be coloured by political
considerations, Member State preferences and what the Council, the
Commission and the European Parliament are willing to concede to the
UK. In short, the entire process of ensuring that Brexit is achieved will
embroil the government from start to finish traversing its way through a
minefield containing many legal and political explosives.
From the moment May assumed the premiership, the British gov-
ernment’s resolve was to be tested time and time again in both the UK
and within the EU. Legal challenges were taken to the courts. Political
1 LEAVING EUROPE 11
“Well, it’s no more than we had a right to expect,” said Andy, after
a pause. “I was thinking of playing a few tricks myself.”
“One thing is sure: We’ve got to have some bedclothing before we
go to bed,” muttered Fred.
“Oh, we could sleep without if we had to—it’s a warm night,”
answered Jack. He had strode over to a closet door and now pulled
it open. “Wow! What do you know about this!” he ejaculated.
His cousins came rushing forward and each gave a brief glance
into the clothing closet. The place was practically bare.
“All the clothing gone!”
“Even the pajamas are missing!”
“And the shoes and hats!”
Fred ran to another closet while Randy and his twin darted into the
other rooms of the suite. A moment later each of the lads set up a
howl of dismay.
“We have been cleaned out!”
“Everything is gone—even that old play suit I was going to give
away!”
“Perhaps we’ve been robbed,” suggested Fred.
“I doubt if any robbers would take the bedclothing,” answered
Jack. “It’s a trick—that’s what it is!”
“I wonder if any of the other fellows have suffered like this,” came
from Andy.
The words had scarcely been spoken when there came a knock
on the hallway door and Gif entered, followed by Spouter.
“It’s the same story!” exclaimed Gif, glancing at the empty beds.
“You’ve been cleaned out just the same as we were.”
“Were your closets ransacked too?” questioned the young major
quickly.
“Yes, everything taken,” answered Spouter. “Confound the luck,
anyway! I was going to do my packing to-night so that I’d have a little
time to myself in the morning.”
“I was going to get up early to pack,” answered Fred.
“Has anybody else been cleaned out?” questioned Randy.
“I don’t know,” returned Gif. “We stopped at Ned Lowe’s room, and
also asked Dan Soppinger, and they said nothing had been touched
in their rooms.”
Andy had walked to the corridor door and opened it. As he
glanced down the semi-dark hallway he saw Fatty Hendry
approaching.
“Say, Fatty,” he called out, “come here a minute! A lot of our stuff
has been taken from our rooms. Do you know anything about it?”
“Not a thing,” returned the stout cadet. “What’s the matter—
somebody play a trick on you fellows?” And then, after Andy had
explained briefly, Fatty continued: “Maybe I can give you a clew. A
while ago I came upstairs to get a book I had promised to Phil
Franklin. As I came past here I saw Dock Wesley at your door. He
looked rather scared and slid down the corridor as fast as he could.
He had something under his arm.”
“Dock Wesley!” repeated Jack. “Why, he’s the new kid who is
chumming with Codfish!”
“I wouldn’t put it past Codfish to try something like this to get
square for being exposed the way he was,” remarked Fred, who had
followed Andy to the doorway.
“You didn’t see anybody else, Fatty?” asked Randy, who had
joined the others.
“Not a soul. But wait a minute! Come to think of it, I did meet
Wesley and Codfish a little later, along with some of the other
fellows, and the bunch were having a good laugh over something.”
“Then I guess we have struck a clew,” declared Fred. “Come on,
and we’ll soon get to the bottom of this.”
The Rover boys, followed by Gif, Spouter and Fatty, hurried down
the corridor and around a corner where was located the room
occupied by Codfish and Dock Wesley. They knocked on the door,
but to this there was no response. Then they knocked again, and at
last a somewhat faltering voice asked who was there.
“It’s Major Rover,” called out Jack. “Stowell, I want to talk to you.”
“I’ve gone to bed,” answered Codfish weakly. “I’m all tired out.
Can’t you do your talking to-morrow morning?”
“No, I can’t. I want to do it now.”
“I’m not going to open the door,” declared Codfish. “You want to
play some kind of a trick on me.”
“That’s right! Don’t open up,” came in Dock Wesley’s voice.
“Don’t forget that I am major of the battalion,” went on Jack sternly.
“I want both of you to obey orders and open this door.”
“You’re not major any longer, Jack Rover!” cried Wesley. “Your
commission went out of date to-day. You’re nothing but a student like
ourselves.”
“You sha’n’t bulldoze me any longer,” put in Codfish, gaining a little
courage by his chum’s manner. “I won’t stand for it. You go away and
let us go to sleep.”
“Open that door or we’ll break it down!” cried Fred.
“You break that door down and you’ll get a baseball bat over your
head!” stormed Wesley. “I’ve got a bat here, and so has Stowell, and
we’ll both use ’em, too, if you try any funny business.”
“Wait a minute! I’ve got a plan,” whispered Andy. “Come here,” and
he drew several feet away from the door.
“What do you propose?” questioned Gif.
“Jack, Fred, Spouter and Fatty can stay at the door and argue with
Codfish and Wesley just as hard as possible so as to keep ’em
interested. In the meanwhile, Randy and Gif and I can go around
and get on the fire escape that runs under their window. Most likely
their window is open and we’ll be able to sneak into the room. If we
can do that Randy and I can hold both of them back while Gif
unlocks the door and lets you fellows in.”
“Gee, that’s the stuff!” answered Randy, in a whisper, his eyes
glistening. “Come on! Let’s get busy!”
The others were willing, and while Jack, Fred, Spouter and Hendry
returned to the locked door, the others, led by Andy, disappeared
around the corridor corner in the direction where a door led out to a
long fire escape.
“We’ve got to be careful and make no noise,” whispered Andy.
“Otherwise they may get on to the trick and lock the window and
barricade it with a chiffonier or something. Then we’ll be out of it
altogether.”
It was easy to get out on the fire escape, and, once there, the
three cadets crawled cautiously along past several windows, coming
finally to the window belonging to the room occupied by Codfish and
Wesley.
“The window is open,” whispered Andy, after taking a cautious
look. “All we’ve got to do is to raise the screen and leap inside.”
“Wait now!” returned his twin. “Let’s have everything understood.
Take a look inside if you can without being seen.”
The light was lit in the room and by this, peering cautiously over
the window sill, the cadets outside saw Codfish and Wesley standing
close to the locked door, each with a baseball bat in his hands. Both
were arguing loudly with those in the corridor.
“I don’t think they’ll notice us,” whispered Andy. “Everybody is
talking too loud. Come on now. Grab the bats first of all. And you,
Gif, try to get to the door and unlock it.”
“Is the key in it? Maybe they have taken it out.”
“No, the key is there,” said Andy. “Now then! Be quick!”
Cautiously he raised the window screen and as soon as it was
high enough Gif stepped into the room, followed immediately by the
two Rovers. Their entrance was not noticed, for Jack was laying
down the law in the hall outside and Codfish and Wesley were
listening attentively.
“Now!” cried Randy, and hurled himself at Codfish while Andy
leaped upon Wesley. Gif went between, reaching the door with
scarcely an effort. For a few seconds there was a terrible mêlée in
the rather small room. Andy managed to get the bat away from his
opponent and then the two grappled and fell to the floor. In the
meantime his twin also became engaged in a fierce scuffle. In the
midst of this Gif flung open the door and into the room poured all of
the others, and then the impromptu battle came to a sudden
termination.
“Don’t hit me! Don’t hit me!” screamed Codfish, in terror as Randy
stood over him, baseball bat in hand.
“What’s the meaning of all this?” demanded Dock Wesley, sitting
down on the edge of a bed and scowling at those in front of him.
“Going to start a rough house?”
“No, we’re going to bring you fellows to book,” answered Jack.
“I guess we had better bind and gag ’em and throw ’em into the
lake,” suggested Gif, with a wink at his chums.
“No, no! Don’t do anything like that!” cried Codfish, more
frightened than ever. “Let me alone! Please!”
“Look here, Codfish, what did you and your bunch do with our
things?” demanded Randy.
“Don’t tell ’em anything,” snarled Wesley. “Keep your mouth shut.”
“Oh, so that’s what you intend to do, is it?” came from Spouter.
“How do you like that?” and he suddenly caught Wesley by the collar
and laid him out flat on the bed. “Let’s strip ’em, boys, and give ’em
the licking they deserve!”
“Don’t you touch me! Don’t you dare! I’ll have you arrested!”
howled Wesley, and now he seemed to be as much frightened as
Codfish. He was a coward at heart, and that was one reason he had
sought the companionship of such a sneak as Stowell.
“I’ve got it!” declared Jack. “We’ll bind and gag ’em and take ’em
down to the gymnasium. There we’ll give ’em a good lashing with a
horsewhip and then throw ’em both into the lake. That will give ’em
something to remember us by,” and he winked suggestively at his
cousins and his chums.
“That’s the talk!” said Randy, taking up the cue. “We’ll give ’em the
licking of their lives.”
“Sure thing!” declared Fred. “And we’ll tie ’em in potato sacks
before we heave ’em overboard.”
“They both wanted to sleep—we’ll let them sleep with the fishes
for a while,” declared Spouter.
It is possible that Codfish and his crony did not believe all that their
tormentors said. Yet they felt that they were in for a rough time of it
and that matters might be carried further than intended.
“Wha-what did you come he-here for?” faltered Codfish.
“You know well enough what we came for,” declared Fred.
“It was only a—a joke, Fred Rover! Indeed it was!” pleaded the
sneak of the school.
“Shut up! Why can’t you shut up?” stormed Wesley. “That’s no way
to spill the beans. If you’d only—— Oh!” And his talk came to a
sudden end as he found himself flat on the floor, sent there by Gif
and Spouter. Then, before he could get up, Randy emptied a pitcher
of ice-water over him.
“Don’t! Let me up!” spluttered Wesley. “Ouch! that’s ice-water,
don’t you know it? Let up!” and he tried to rise, but one of the boys
sat on his chest and another on his legs and kept him down.
In the meantime the others got Codfish into a corner and Jack took
the sneak by the ear. He looked at Codfish so menacingly that the
sneak of the school was almost paralyzed.
“Don’t hit me, Major Rover! Please don’t!” he half sobbed. “I’ll tell
you everything! We didn’t mean any harm! It was only done in fun. I’ll
tell you where we took your clothing and the bed things!”