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[Kotak] TCS, July 11, 2024
[Kotak] TCS, July 11, 2024
Healthy execution, aided by mega deal ramp-up Company data and valuation summary
TCS reported a healthy beat on revenue growth, driven by BSNL, and other Stock data
large and mega deal ramp-ups. Muted TCV and growth in key market
CMP(Rs)/FV(Rs)/Rating 3,924/4,500/ADD
segments indicate things are not rosy yet. Discretionary demand is improving
52-week range (Rs) (high-low) 4,255-3,235
in the US banking segment, but overall demand has not improved. It is
Mcap (bn) (Rs/US$) 14,196/169.9
interesting to note that the valuations of Tier 1 peers have converged toward
ADTV-3M (mn) (Rs/US$) 9,595/114.8
TCS, despite the more consistent growth and better RoIC profile of the latter.
It is set to be the industry leader on growth and net profit in FY2025, and is Shareholding pattern (%)
well-positioned in the current environment. Maintain ADD.
1.2
4.3
6.0
4.1
Healthy beat on growth, driven by mega and large deal ramp-ups
12.7
TCS reported revenue growth of 2.2% qoq in c/c. In reported terms, revenue
grew 1.9% qoq to US$7.5 bn, beating our estimate of 1.5%. Growth was led by 71.8
ramp-up of the BSNL deal (we estimate US$70 mn incremental revenue or ~1%
growth), JLR and other large deals. Vertical-wise growth was led by regional Promoters FPIs MFs BFIs Retail Others
markets and others (10.6% qoq), healthcare (2.9% qoq), manufacturing and E&U
Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
(1.9% qoq each), while telecom ((-)4.2% qoq) and retail (0% qoq) lagged. Geo- Absolute 2 (2) 20
Private Circulation Only. This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities A ct of 1933
wise growth was powered by India (14.1% qoq) and the UK (2.5% qoq). Rel. to Nifty (3) (8) (5)
Cost optimization limits wage hike impact on margins Rel. to MSCI India (3) (11) (16)
EBIT margin declined 130 bps qoq to 24.7% (10 bps ahead of our estimate) due Forecasts/Valuations 2024 2025E 2026E
to impact of wage hikes (170 bps) and higher pass-through costs, partially
EPS (Rs) 129.6 142.0 156.3
offset by cost optimization measures such as lower subcontractor usage. Net EPS growth (%) 12.6 9.5 10.0
profit declined 3% qoq and increased 8.7% yoy to Rs120.4 bn, in line with our P/E (X) 30.3 27.6 25.1
estimates. DSO increased by 3 to 92.
P/B (X) 15.2 13.8 12.4
Muted TCV and growth in key market segments indicate things not rosy yet EV/EBITDA (X) 21.4 19.4 17.6
Deal win TCV of US$8.3 bn was muted due to lack of mega deals. A few deals RoE (%) 50.4 52.6 52.1
slipped to 2QFY25. Overall pipeline is at a near all-time high. We anticipate Div. yield (%) 1.5 2.9 3.2
strong TCV in 2QFY25. The muted growth rates and deal TCV in key segments Sales (Rs bn) 2,409 2,577 2,770
such as North America, BFSI and retail do not provide visibility of significant EBITDA (Rs bn) 643 704 774
recovery either in discretionary spending or in cost take-outs. Net profits (Rs bn) 466 514 565
Valuation gap with peers has reduced in the past few months due to differential share price shifts
Sharp stock price movements of peers—Infosys and HCLT—has led to a reduction in the valuation gap
with TCS (Exhibits 15 and 16). We believe TCS deserves to trade at a significant premium to the above
stocks, given its consistent growth profile, robust execution and strong RoIC.
We estimate contribution of US$200 mn from the BSNL deal in the current quarter. We do not expect any
further quarterly ramp-up from BSNL and forecast completion of the US$1 bn program by 4QFY25.
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IT Services India Research
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Deal wins. TCV can be lumpy depending on the timing of the closure of large deals. A few deals that
were expected to close during the quarter were delayed. However, management indicated that delay
in closure was not necessarily due to slower decision-making
UK. IT spends have been relatively resilient in the market as compared with other major markets.
Sustainability and regulatory compliance are areas of spends by European clients.
India. Performance was healthy across verticals in the geo and growth was not only driven by BSNL
deal.
Pricing. Has remained stable during the quarter at the company level. However, realizations have
improved due to operating efficiencies.
Margin. Utilization and pyramid optimization would be primary levers to margins in addition to
operating leverage. Sub-con costs would remain stable at current levels (4.3% in 1QFY25).
Hiring. The company onboarded 11K freshers during the quarter, onboarding the entire backlog of
campus hires from last year. TCS fresher hiring plans would be similar to historical levels. Focus
would be hiring freshers and training them with the requisite skills, rather than lateral hiring, which
would be mostly based on requirements.
Gen AI. TCS is working on 270 AI projects, with AI and Gen AI pipeline doubling yoy to US$1.5 bn. A
few engagements have transitioned beyond PoC stages. Management indicated increased client
interest on infusing AI in existing cost optimization and transformation initiatives. Clients are
interested in AI to bring in productivity gains. Typical software productivity gains have been at 5-25%
using AI and depend on the phase of the project. Testing services would have higher productivity
gains. TCS does not see the elevated interest of clients in Gen AI initiatives impacting overall tech
spend budgets.
Wage hike. Higher performers received double-digit wage increments, while rest of the employees
offshore on an average were awarded with 5-7% wage increases.
Attrition. LTM IT services attrition was at 12.1%, down 40 bps qoq and within the target band of 11-
135. Management expects attrition to remain broadly stable at current levels.
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IT Services India Research
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% chg.
1QFY25 1QFY25E 1QFY24 4QFY24 KIE yoy qoq FY2025E % chg.
Re/US$ rate 83.4 83.4 82.2 83.2 0.0 1.5 0.3 83.3 0.5
Revenues (US$ mn) 7,505 7,462 7,226 7,363 0.6 3.9 1.9 30,939 6.4
Revenues 626,130 622,290 593,810 612,370 0.6 5.4 2.2 2,577,022 7.0
Cost of revenues (376,610) (371,691) (359,160) (360,460) 1.3 4.9 4.5 (1,528,591) 6.5
Gross profit 249,520 250,599 234,650 251,910 (0.4) 6.3 (0.9) 1,048,431 7.8
SG&A expenses (95,100) (97,532) (97,100) (92,730) (2.5) (2.1) 2.6 (395,494) 4.1
EBIT 154,420 153,067 137,550 159,180 0.9 12.3 (3.0) 652,937 10.1
Other Income 7,890 9,105 12,340 9,310 (13.3) (36.1) (15.3) 39,880 7.0
Profit before tax 162,310 162,172 149,890 168,490 0.1 8.3 (3.7) 692,817 9.9
Provision for tax (41,260) (41,340) (38,690) (43,470) (0.2) 6.6 (5.1) (176,220) 8.4
Net income before MI 121,050 120,833 111,200 125,020 0.2 8.9 (3.2) 516,597 10.4
Minority Interest (650) (406) (460) (680) (2,679)
Net income (before EO items) 120,400 120,427 110,740 124,340 (0.0) 8.7 (3.2) 513,918 10.3
Extraordinary items — — — — —
Net income 120,400 120,427 110,740 124,340 (0.0) 8.7 (3.2) 513,918 11.9
EPS (Rs/ share) 33.3 33.3 30.3 34.4 (0.0) 10.0 (3.2) 142.0 11.2
As % of revenues
Gross profit margin 39.9 40.3 39.5 41.1 40.7
Operating margin (EBIT) 24.7 24.6 23.2 26.0 25.3
SG&A expenses 15.2 15.7 16.4 15.1 15.3
Tax rate (% of PBT) 25.4 25.5 25.8 25.7 25.4
Revenues (US$ mn) 30,939 32,876 36,100 31,168 33,117 36,366 (0.7) (0.7) (0.7)
Re/$ rate 83.3 84.3 84.5 83.1 84.3 84.5 0.3 (0.0) —
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Exhibit 4: Revenue growth across geographies and verticals in constant-currency terms, %, December 2021-June 2024
Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24
Constant currency revenue (yoy %)
Revenue by geography
North America 18.0 18.7 19.1 17.6 15.4 9.6 4.6 0.1 (3.0) (2.3) (1.1)
Latin America 21.1 20.6 21.6 19.0 14.6 15.1 13.5 13.1 13.2 9.8 6.3
UK 12.7 13.0 12.6 14.8 15.4 17.0 16.1 10.7 8.1 6.2 6.0
Continental Europe 17.5 10.1 12.1 14.1 9.7 8.4 3.4 1.3 0.5 (2.0) 0.9
India 15.2 7.0 20.8 16.7 9.1 13.4 14.0 3.9 23.4 37.9 61.8
Asia Pacific 4.3 5.5 6.2 7.0 9.5 7.5 4.7 4.1 3.9 5.2 7.6
MEA 6.9 7.3 3.2 8.2 8.6 11.3 15.2 15.9 16.0 10.7 8.5
Revenue by verticals - NEW
BFSI 17.9 12.9 13.9 13.1 11.1 9.1 3.0 (0.5) (3.0) (3.2) (0.9)
Retail & CPG 20.4 22.1 25.1 22.9 18.7 13.0 5.3 1.0 (0.3) (0.3) (0.3)
Communication & Media 14.4 18.7 19.6 18.7 13.5 5.3 0.5 (2.1) (4.9) (5.5) (7.4)
Manufacturing 18.3 19.0 16.4 14.5 12.5 9.1 9.4 5.8 7.0 9.7 9.4
Life sciences & healthcare 16.3 16.4 11.9 14.5 14.4 12.3 10.1 5.0 3.1 1.7 4.0
Technology & Services 17.7 18.0 16.4 15.9 13.6 9.2 4.4 (2.2) (5.0) (5.6) (3.9)
Energy, Resources & Utilities 14.8 11.8 7.3 5.7
Regional markets and others 5.2 4.0 9.8 13.1 13.3 14.6 16.9 14.3 19.2 26.0 37.7
Revenue by services
Total growth 15.4 14.3 15.5 15.4 13.5 10.7 7.0 2.8 1.7 2.2 4.4
Notes:
(a) Verticals reclassified in September 2023 quarter
32
30
28
26
24.7
24
22
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-24
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Note:
(a) Dec 2023 quarter margin, excluding one-time costs
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IT Services India Research
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BFSI revenue declined 0.9% yoy, but an improvement from the previous quarter decline of 3.2%
Exhibit 7: Trend in constant currency yoy revenue growth of BFSI vertical, %, June 2017-June 2024
13.3 13.9
15 12.9 13.1
11.6 11.1
8.6 9.2 9.1
10 8.0
6.1 5.3
5.1 4.7
4.1
5 2.9 2.4 3
0.2 -0.5
-1.3 -1.1 -0.9
0 -3.2
Jun-17
Jun-20
Jun-23
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-24
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-23
Sep-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
Sep-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Mar-22
Mar-24
Sep-19
Sep-22
Sep-23
Dec-18
Dec-21
Dec-17
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-22
Dec-23
-4.9
-5 -3
-10
Regional markets and others revenue growth increases further to 37.7% yoy, driven by BSNL deal
Exhibit 8: Trend in constant currency yoy revenue growth of regional markets and others vertical, %, June
2017-June 2024
37.7
40
30 26
22.6
19.8 20.8 19.2
16.9 16.9
20 14.6 14.3
11.8 13.113.3
9.3 9.8
6.9 7.7 6.4
10 5.5 5.7 5.2 4
2.2 1.8 0.8
-0.7
-2.9
0
-9.2
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-24
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-24
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
-12.5
-10
-20
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IT Services India Research
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12 11.3 11.2
10 10.2
10 8.9 9.2
8.6 8.2 8.1 7.8 8.3
8.1 8.1
7.6 7.6
8 6.9 6.8
6.4 6
5.9 6.2 5.7
6 4.9 4.9
Jun-22
Jun-24
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-23
Mar-20
Mar-22
Mar-24
Mar-19
Mar-21
Mar-23
Dec-19
Dec-21
Dec-23
Dec-18
Dec-20
Dec-22
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities
Cost of equipment and software licenses increased 90 bps qoq, primarily attributable to BSNL deal
Exhibit 10: Trend in equipment and software license costs as a percentage of revenue, September 2017-
June 2024
4.0
3.4
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.4
2.5 2.3
1.9
2.0 1.8
1.7 1.6
1.4 1.4 1.3
1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0
0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8
1.0 0.7 0.7
0.6 0.5 0.4
0.5
0.5
-
Jun-20
Jun-23
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Dec-23
Jun-24
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-24
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
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IT Services India Research
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12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0 4.3
2.0
-
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-17
Sep-20
Sep-23
Sep-13
Mar-14
Mar-16
Mar-15
Sep-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-19
Mar-22
Mar-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Sep-22
Mar-23
Mar-24
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities
Mar-13
Mar-16
Mar-18
Mar-23
Mar-10
Mar-12
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-17
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-24
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
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IT Services India Research
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DSO increased by 3 to 92
Exhibit 13: Trend in DSO, June 2016-June 2024
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-24
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-24
Mar-17
Mar-18
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities
Premium/(Discount) 10 yr Mean +1 SD -1 SD
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
6.4
-
(10.0)
(20.0)
(30.0)
(40.0)
Jan-09
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jan-24
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IT Services India Research
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Premium/(Discount) 10 yr Mean +1 SD -1 SD
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
- 14.5
(20.0)
(40.0)
(60.0)
Jan-09
Jan-15
Jan-17
Jan-23
Jan-24
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-16
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates
Exhibit 17: TCS—employee distribution by region and age, March fiscal year-ends, 2020-2024, %
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
India
>50 1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3
40-50 8 7 7 8.7 12.6
30-40 39 36 33 37.3 35.8
<30 52 56 59 52.9 50.3
Total 100 100 100 100 100
North America
>50 21 21 20 21.8 20.7
40-50 33 28 27 28.4 35.3
30-40 30 29 30 32.8 30.9
<30 16 22 23 17 13.1
Total 100 100 100 100 100
UK
>50 26 23 26 27.1 27
40-50 33 30 28 27.5 30.6
30-40 19 27 25 26.2 23.8
<30 23 20 21 19.2 18.6
Total 101 100 100 100 100
Europe
>50 14 16 25 25.5 25.8
40-50 27 22 23 23.8 26.8
30-40 34 33 30 34.2 31.5
<30 25 29 22 16.5 15.9
Total 100 100 100 100 100
Emerging markets
>50 6 7 7 7.6 8.5
40-50 17 19 16 17.4 21.5
30-40 40 42 38 41.1 38.5
<30 37 32 39 33.9 31.5
Total 100 100 100 100 100
APAC
>50 6 7 9 8.5 8.2
40-50 19 15 20 21.5 27.1
30-40 43 38 43 45.2 39.5
<30 32 40 28 24.8 25.2
Total 100 100 100 100 100
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IT Services India Research
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TCS
IT Services India Research
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Note:
(a) Verticals reclassified in Sep 2023 quarter
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IT Services India Research
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Exhibit 21: Profit model, balance sheet, cash model of TCS, March fiscal year-ends (Rs mn), 2020-2027E
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E
Profit model
Revenues 1,569,490 1,641,770 1,917,540 2,254,580 2,408,930 2,577,022 2,769,774 3,050,460
Cost of sales (923,220) (971,380) (1,146,210) (1,362,680) (1,435,950) (1,528,591) (1,617,099) (1,786,743)
SG&A expenses (260,470) (245,580) (286,800) (349,530) (379,870) (395,494) (432,272) (469,159)
EBIT 385,800 424,810 484,530 542,370 593,110 652,937 720,403 794,559
Other income 36,680 24,970 32,340 26,700 37,270 39,880 44,962 45,952
Pre-tax profits 422,480 449,780 516,870 569,070 630,380 692,817 765,365 840,510
Provision for tax (98,010) (114,580) (132,380) (146,040) (162,620) (176,220) (196,972) (215,156)
Recurring net income 324,470 335,200 384,490 423,030 467,760 516,597 568,393 625,354
Minority Interest (1,070) (1,320) (1,220) (1,560) (1,628) (2,679) (2,900) (2,900)
Extraordinary items — — — — (6,770) — — —
Reported net income 323,400 333,880 383,270 421,470 466,132 513,918 565,493 622,454
EPS (Rs) 86.2 89.3 103.6 115.2 129.6 142.0 156.3 172.0
Balance Sheet
Shareholders funds 862,400 885,550 912,590 925,420 926,120 1,028,904 1,142,002 1,266,493
Borrowings — — — — — — — —
Minority interest 6,230 6,750 7,070 7,820 8,300 10,979 13,879 16,779
Other non-current liabilities 88,820 88,240 90,670 85,770 90,720 91,753 92,944 94,569
Total liabilities 957,450 980,540 1,010,330 1,019,010 1,025,140 1,131,636 1,248,826 1,377,841
Net fixed assets 119,380 121,350 120,800 115,950 112,240 119,243 128,714 137,196
Goodwill 38,500 39,480 39,350 40,060 39,890 39,890 39,890 39,890
Intangibles 2,830 4,800 11,010 8,670 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100
Investments 2,160 2,130 2,230 2,660 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810
Other non-current assets 149,640 150,110 159,630 162,910 159,210 161,544 164,624 167,975
Cash and bank balances 441,092 502,338 555,770 495,973 465,440 533,581 609,512 684,892
Net current assets excluding cash 203,848 160,332 121,540 192,787 240,450 269,468 298,175 339,978
Total assets 957,450 980,540 1,010,330 1,019,010 1,025,140 1,131,636 1,248,826 1,377,841
Cash flow
Operating cash flow, excl. working capital changes 370,360 388,970 427,180 461,820 512,360 527,361 576,644 635,405
Working capital (46,670) 8,630 (27,690) (42,170) (75,940) (28,285) (27,866) (40,578)
Cash flow from operations 323,690 397,600 399,490 419,650 436,420 499,076 548,778 594,827
Capital expenditure (33,150) (31,390) (34,850) (31,000) (26,470) (43,255) (45,299) (46,469)
Net finance cost/ income 36,680 24,970 32,340 26,700 37,270 39,880 44,962 45,952
Increase/(decrease) in lease liabilities (10,620) (13,360) (14,170) (15,150) (16,140) (19,266) (20,116) (20,966)
Free cash flow 316,600 377,820 382,810 400,200 431,080 476,436 528,325 573,344
Ratios (%)
Gross profit margin 41.2 40.8 40.2 39.6 40.4 40.7 41.6 41.4
EBITDA margin 26.8 28.4 27.7 26.3 26.7 27.3 27.9 27.9
EBIT margin 24.6 25.9 25.3 24.1 24.6 25.3 26.0 26.0
EPS growth 3.8 3.7 16.0 11.1 12.6 9.5 10.0 10.1
RoAE 36.4 38.2 42.6 45.9 50.4 52.6 52.1 51.7
TCS
IT Services India Research
DISCLAIMERS, DISCLOSURES & LEGAL
“Each of the analysts named below hereby certifies that, with respect to each subject company and its securities for which the analyst is
responsible in this report, (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies
and securities, and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or
views expressed in this report: Kawaljeet Saluja, Satishkumar S, Vamshi Krishna.”
BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.
ADD. We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.
REDUCE. We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.
SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-5% returns over the next 12 months.
60%
Percentage of companies within each category for which
Kotak Institutional Equities and or its affiliates has
50%
provided investment banking services within the previous
12 months.
40% * The above categories are defined as follows: Buy = We
31.9% 33.1% expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over
30% the next 12 months; Add = We expect this stock to deliver
5-15% returns over the next 12 months; Reduce = We
19.0% expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next
20% 16.0% 12 months; Sell = We expect this stock to deliver less than
-5% returns over the next 12 months. Our target prices
10% 5.7% are also on a 12-month horizon basis. These ratings are
3.8% used illustratively to comply with applicable regulations. As
1.9% 1.9%
of 31/03/2024 Kotak Institutional Equities Investment
0%
Research had investment ratings on 263 equity securities.
BUY ADD REDUCE SELL
Coverage view
The coverage view represents each analyst’s overall fundamental outlook on the Sector. The coverage view will consist of one of the following
designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.
Other ratings/identifiers
NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and fair value, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable
regulation(s) and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or
strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances.
RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and fair value, if any, for this stock, because there is not a
sufficient fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or fair value. The previous investment rating and fair value, if any, are no longer in
effect for this stock and should not be relied upon.
NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.
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