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 Intelligent Systems and
Learning Data Analytics in
Online Education
 Intelligent Data-Centric Systems:
Sensor Collected Intelligence

Intelligent Systems and

Learning Data Analytics in
Online Education
Edited by
Santi Caballé
Faculty of Computer Science, Multimedia and Telecommunications,
Universitat Oberta de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain
Stavros N. Demetriadis
School of Informatics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki,
Thessaloniki, Greece
Eduardo Gómez-Sánchez
School of Telecommunications Engineering,
Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain
Pantelis M. Papadopoulos
Department of Instructional Technology,
University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands
Armin Weinberger
Department of Educational Technology and Knowledge Management,
Saarland University, Saarland, Germany

Series Editor
Fatos Xhafa
Technical University of Catalonia (UPC), Barcelona, Spain
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Dedication

“To our families”

Contents

List of contributors ..............................................................................................xvii

Foreword..............................................................................................................xxi
Preface................................................................................................................xxv
Acknowledgments .............................................................................................. xxxv
Conversational agents in MOOCs: reflections on first outcomes
of the colMOOC project ...................................................................................xxxvii

Part I Intelligent agent systems and learning data analytics....................... 1

Chapter 1: Artificial Intelligence (AI)-enabled remote learning and teaching

using Pedagogical Conversational Agents and Learning Analytics ............. 3
Amara Atif, Meena Jha, Deborah Richards and Ayse A. Bilgin
1.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 3
1.2 Literature review.................................................................................................... 5
1.2.1 Challenges and disappointments of online learning or remote teaching ............5
1.2.2 Artificial Intelligence, Pedagogical Conversational Agents,
and Learning Analytics in support for remote teaching-learning .................6
1.3 Our experience with Pedagogical Conversational Agents ...................................... 8
1.3.1 Building VIRTA in Unity3D.......................................................................9
1.3.2 VIRTA architecture and deployment environment ....................................11
1.3.3 Using the CA-VIRTA ...............................................................................11
1.4 Results and analysis ............................................................................................. 14
1.4.1 Access to VIRTA by teaching week .........................................................16
1.4.2 Hours of access to VIRTA ........................................................................16
1.4.3 Access to VIRTA by week and hour.........................................................17
1.4.4 Access to VIRTA by day of week ............................................................18
1.4.5 Student interactions with VIRTA ..............................................................20

vii
viii Contents

1.5 Discussion............................................................................................................ 21
1.5.1 Utilizing Pedagogical Conversational Agents with
Learning Management Systems.................................................................21
1.5.2 Integrating Learning Analytics and Pedagogical
Conversational Agents ..............................................................................23
1.6 Future trends and conclusion ............................................................................... 24
References ................................................................................................................... 26

Chapter 2: Integrating a conversational pedagogical agent into

the instructional activities of a Massive Open Online Course ................. 31
Rocael Hernández Rizzardini, He´ctor R. Amado-Salvatierra
and Miguel Morales Chan
2.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 31
2.2 Literature review.................................................................................................. 32
2.3 Research methodology ......................................................................................... 34
2.3.1 Research goals and hypotheses .................................................................37
2.4 Results and discussion ......................................................................................... 39
2.4.1 Discussion .................................................................................................40
2.5 Conclusions and future work ............................................................................... 42
References ................................................................................................................... 43

Chapter 3: Improving MOOCs experience using Learning Analytics

and Intelligent Conversational Agent .................................................... 47
Tariq Abdullah and Asmaa Sakr
3.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 47
3.2 Online learning and MOOCs ............................................................................... 49
3.3 Methodology ........................................................................................................ 53
3.4 LAICA integration in MOOCs: framework .......................................................... 54
3.4.1 Proposed framework .................................................................................54
3.4.2 LAICA: system flow .................................................................................56
3.4.3 LAICA: analytics and dissemination .........................................................57
3.5 LAICA integration in MOOCs: example implementation .................................... 58
3.5.1 Knowledge base creation ..........................................................................58
3.5.2 Database integration..................................................................................61
3.5.3 Test plan ...................................................................................................62
3.5.4 Learning analytics integration ...................................................................62
3.6 LAICA integration in MOOC: impact analysis .................................................... 64
3.7 LAICA integration in MOOC: findings and discussion ........................................ 66
 Contents ix

3.8 Conclusion ........................................................................................................... 68

References ................................................................................................................... 69
Further reading............................................................................................................. 70

Chapter 4: Sequential engagement-based online learning analytics

and prediction ..................................................................................... 71
Xiangyu Song and Jianxin Li
4.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 71
4.2 Related work........................................................................................................ 74
4.2.1 Learning analytics .....................................................................................74
4.2.2 Predicting student’s performance ..............................................................75
4.2.3 Students’ learning engagement..................................................................76
4.3 Sequential engagement-based academic performance prediction network ............ 77
4.3.1 Notation and problem statement................................................................77
4.3.2 SPEN structure overview ..........................................................................79
4.3.3 Engagement detector .................................................................................80
4.3.4 Sequential predictor ..................................................................................80
4.3.5 Loss function ............................................................................................81
4.4 Experiments and evaluation ................................................................................. 81
4.4.1 Experiments environment..........................................................................81
4.4.2 Experiment settings ...................................................................................81
4.4.3 Compared methods and metrics ................................................................83
4.4.4 Evaluation .................................................................................................84
4.4.5 Experiment results and discussion .............................................................84
4.5 Conclusions and future work ............................................................................... 87
Acknowledgment ......................................................................................................... 88
References ................................................................................................................... 88

Chapter 5: An intelligent system to support planning interactive learning

segments in online education ................................................................ 91
Kristijan Kuk, Igor Vuković, Edis Mekić and Tijana Paunović
5.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 91
5.2 Theoretical backgrounds of intelligent systems in active learning systems .......... 92
5.3 Methodology of implementation and target group ............................................... 93
5.3.1 Learning objects in Moodle system...........................................................93
5.3.2 Relationship learning object: learning topic ..............................................95
5.3.3 Structure of observer as activity module ...................................................96
5.3.4 Data analytics techniques ..........................................................................97
x Contents

5.3.5 Generalized sequential patterns of learning object ....................................97

5.3.6 Felder and Silverman learning style model .............................................102
5.4 Results and discussion ....................................................................................... 102
5.5 Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 107
References ................................................................................................................. 107

Part II Artificial intelligence systems in online education .........................109

Chapter 6: A literature review on artificial intelligence and ethics

in online learning ...............................................................................111
Joan Casas-Roma and Jordi Conesa
6.1 Introduction and motivations ............................................................................. 111
6.2 Artificial intelligence in online learning............................................................. 113
6.2.1 Chatbots and educational bots .................................................................114
6.3 Ethics in online learning .................................................................................... 115
6.4 Ethics in artificial intelligence ........................................................................... 116
6.4.1 Data science and ethics ...........................................................................118
6.4.2 Opening the black box with explainable artificial intelligence ................120
6.5 Limitations of ethics by design and how moral systems can
overcome them .................................................................................................. 121
6.6 Reflections and guidelines for an ethical use of artificial intelligence
in online learning ............................................................................................... 123
6.6.1 Data science and fairness ........................................................................124
6.6.2 Transparency and honesty .......................................................................124
6.6.3 Purpose of intelligent system ..................................................................125
6.6.4 Technological exclusion and digital divide .............................................126
6.7 Concluding remarks and future work ................................................................. 127
Acknowledgments ...................................................................................................... 128
References ................................................................................................................. 128

Chapter 7: Transfer learning techniques for cross-domain analysis of

posts in massive educational forums ....................................................133
Nicola Capuano
7.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 133
7.2 Related works .................................................................................................... 135
7.3 Text categorization model.................................................................................. 138
7.3.1 Word-level document representation .......................................................139
7.3.2 Overall document representation and classification .................................139
 Contents xi

7.4 Transfer learning strategy .................................................................................. 142

7.5 Experiments and evaluation ............................................................................... 144
7.5.1 Text categorization performance .............................................................146
7.5.2 Transfer learning performance ................................................................147
7.6 Conclusions and further work ............................................................................ 149
References ................................................................................................................. 150

Chapter 8: Assisted education: Using predictive model to avoid

school dropout in e-learning systems....................................................153
Felipe Neves, Fernanda Campos, Victor Ströele, Mário Dantas,
Jose´ Maria N. David and Regina Braga
8.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 153
8.2 Background........................................................................................................ 156
8.2.1 Recommender systems ............................................................................156
8.2.2 Predictive learning models ......................................................................157
8.2.3 Learning styles ........................................................................................159
8.3 Related work...................................................................................................... 160
8.3.1 Comparative analysis ..............................................................................161
8.4 PRIOR Ensemble Architecture .......................................................................... 162
8.4.1 Prediction process ...................................................................................163
8.5 DPE-PRIOR: Dropout predictive Ensemble Model ............................................ 164
8.5.1 DPE-PRIOR in action .............................................................................167
8.6 Final remarks ..................................................................................................... 172
Acknowledgment ....................................................................................................... 176
References ................................................................................................................. 176

Chapter 9: Adaptive task selection in automated educational software:

a comparative study ...........................................................................179
Rina Azoulay, Esther David, Mireille Avigal and Dorit Hutzler
9.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 179
9.2 The pedagogical implications of personalized learning systems ......................... 180
9.3 Overview of the different adaptation schemes ................................................... 181
9.3.1 Reinforcement learning methods .............................................................182
9.3.2 Bayesian inference-based methods ..........................................................184
9.3.3 Summary of the comparison of adaptive methods ...................................188
9.4 Methodology and research approach .................................................................. 190
9.4.1 The evaluation functions used in our study .............................................190
9.4.2 A description of the simulated environment ............................................191
xii Contents

9.5 Simulation results .............................................................................................. 193

9.5.1 Top performing algorithms .....................................................................194
9.5.2 Comparison of algorithms over time .......................................................195
9.5.3 Comparison of algorithms using different evaluation functions...............195
9.5.4 Algorithm comparison for dynamically changed level of students ..........197
9.6 Discussion.......................................................................................................... 198
9.7 Conclusions ....................................................................................................... 200
References ................................................................................................................. 200
Appendix A................................................................................................................ 203

Chapter 10: Actor’s knowledge massive identification in the learning

management system ........................................................................205
Yassine Benjelloun Touimi, Abdelladim Hadioui, Nourredine EL Faddouli
and Samir Bennani
10.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 205
10.2 Diagnosis of higher education in Morocco and contribution of e-learning ....... 207
10.2.1 Position of e-learning in structuring information and
communication technology projects in Morocco ............................... 208
10.2.2 The interaction traces ........................................................................ 208
10.2.3 Learner’s traces ................................................................................. 208
10.2.4 Tutor’s traces .................................................................................... 209
10.2.5 Administrator’s traces ....................................................................... 210
10.2.6 Researcher’s traces ............................................................................ 210
10.2.7 Learning management system traces files ......................................... 211
10.2.8 Trace management by big data.......................................................... 211
10.2.9 Collect and loading traces process with big data tools ...................... 213
10.2.10 The data storage ................................................................................ 215
10.2.11 Data analysis ..................................................................................... 216
10.3 Machine learning evaluation tools.................................................................... 218
10.3.1 Seeking information ............................................................................ 219
10.3.2 Data visualization tools ....................................................................... 220
10.4 E-learning massive data ................................................................................... 220
10.4.1 The analysis process of massive traces in a massive online
open coursediscussion forum............................................................... 221
10.4.2 Extraction knowledge by big data analysis of massive log files .......... 222
10.4.3 Extraction knowledge by statistical descriptive analysis of log files ... 223
10.4.4 Semantic analysis of big data in the discussion forum ........................ 229
10.5 Conclusion ....................................................................................................... 233
References ................................................................................................................. 233
 Contents xiii

Part III Applications of intelligent systems for online education .............237

Chapter 11: Assessing students’ social and emotional competencies

through graph analysis of emotional-enriched sociograms...................239
Eleni Fotopoulou, Anastasios Zafeiropoulos, Isaac Muro Guiu,
Michalis Feidakis, Thanasis Daradoumis and Symeon Papavassiliou
11.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 239
11.2 State-of-the-art analysis ................................................................................... 241
11.2.1 Sociometric assessment approaches .................................................... 241
11.2.2 Emotional intelligence and competences as social
graph attributes ................................................................................... 248
11.2.3 Motivation and adopted models .......................................................... 253
11.3 Socioemotional graph analysis ......................................................................... 254
11.3.1 Data collection, processing, and emotional-enriched
sociograms composition ...................................................................... 256
11.3.2 Social network analysis ....................................................................... 259
11.3.3 Provision of interactive recommendations for Social
and Emotional Learning activities ....................................................... 264
11.3.4 Indicative usage scenario in educational environment ......................... 266
11.4 Application domains ........................................................................................ 267
11.4.1 Educational environments ................................................................... 267
11.4.2 Work environments ............................................................................. 267
11.4.3 Clinical environments ......................................................................... 268
11.5 Conclusions and open research areas ............................................................... 268
References ................................................................................................................. 269

Chapter 12: An intelligent distance learning framework:

assessment-driven approach .............................................................273
John Yoon
12.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 273
12.2 Sketch of intelligent distance teaching and learning framework ....................... 277
12.3 Three-layered distance teaching and learning platform .................................... 278
12.3.1 Module structure: Three Layers—Begin with Basic,
Dive into Advanced, and Apply to Applications ................................. 280
12.3.2 Layer structure: Four Panes—Slides, Videos, Summary,
and Quizlet Panes ............................................................................... 281
xiv Contents

12.3.3 Answering questions posted by students on layers:

Answer Collection and Ranking .......................................................... 281
12.4 Learning assessment and feedback ................................................................... 284
12.4.1 Assessment question generation .......................................................... 285
12.4.2 Smartphone assessment ....................................................................... 287
12.4.3 Question-driven reorganization of online course materials .................. 289
12.5 Analytics: mining from learning graph and assessment graph .......................... 291
12.5.1 Assessment data analytics for distance teaching .................................. 293
12.6 Simulation result .............................................................................................. 296
12.7 Concluding remarks ......................................................................................... 297
References ................................................................................................................. 298

Chapter 13: Personalizing alternatives for diverse learner groups:

readability tools ..............................................................................301
Debora Jeske, Nadia Pantidi and Mammed Bagher
13.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 301
13.2 Personalization in online education: trends, systems, and approaches .............. 302
13.2.1 Personalization and accessibility ......................................................... 304
13.2.2 Readability as a starting point for personalization ............................... 305
13.3 Implementing readability tools: general steps and suggestions ......................... 307
13.3.1 Precourse preparation: content and display options ............................. 307
13.3.2 Precourse preparation: content and tool selection ................................ 308
13.3.3 Facilitating tool use—encouraging task crafting ................................. 309
13.3.4 Evaluation of personalization and tool use .......................................... 310
13.3.5 Evaluation of performance .................................................................. 311
13.3.6 Additional implementation considerations........................................... 311
13.4 Discussion........................................................................................................ 313
13.4.1 Practical implications for educators .................................................... 314
13.4.2 Future research.................................................................................... 315
13.5 Conclusion ....................................................................................................... 316
References ................................................................................................................. 316

Chapter 14: Human computation for learning and teaching or

collaborative tracking of learners’ misconceptions .............................323
Niels Heller and François Bry
14.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 323
14.1.1 Results from preliminary studies ......................................................... 325
14.1.2 System architecture ............................................................................. 326
 Contents xv

14.1.3 Chapter structure ................................................................................. 327

14.2 Related work.................................................................................................... 327
14.2.1 Online homework systems .................................................................. 328
14.2.2 Educational software for conceptual change ....................................... 328
14.2.3 Text- and natural language processing in
Technology-Enhanced Learning .......................................................... 329
14.2.4 Wiki software in Technology-Enhanced Learning............................... 330
14.3 Results from preliminary studies ...................................................................... 331
14.3.1 Validity of systematic error identification ........................................... 331
14.3.2 Typical use of text fragments in written feedback ............................... 332
14.3.3 Attitudes toward a prototypical implementation .................................. 334
14.3.4 Conceptual change and personalization ............................................... 335
14.4 System architecture .......................................................................................... 336
14.4.1 The semantic wiki ............................................................................... 337
14.4.2 The personal assistant ......................................................................... 338
14.4.3 The text processing component ........................................................... 338
14.4.4 The analytics component..................................................................... 339
14.5 Conclusion ....................................................................................................... 340
14.5.1 Future work......................................................................................... 340
14.5.2 Summary............................................................................................. 341
References ................................................................................................................. 341

Index ..................................................................................................................345
List of contributors

Tariq Abdullah Collage of Engineering and Technology, University of Derby, Derby, United
Kingdom
Héctor R. Amado-Salvatierra Universidad Galileo, GES Department, Guatemala, Guatemala
Amara Atif University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo, NSW, Australia
Mireille Avigal The Open University of Israel, Raanana, Israel
Rina Azoulay Department of Computer Science, Jerusalem College of Technology, Jerusalem,
Israel
Mammed Bagher Business School, Edinburgh Napier University, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Samir Bennani Department of Computer Science, Mohammadia School of Engineering,
Mohammed V University in Rabat, Rabat, Morocco
Ayse A. Bilgin Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW, Australia
Regina Braga Computer Science Postgraduate Program, Knowledge Engineering Research Group,
Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora, Brazil
François Bry Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, München, Germany
Santi Caballé Open University of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain
Fernanda Campos Computer Science Postgraduate Program, Knowledge Engineering Research
Group, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora, Brazil
Nicola Capuano School of Engineering, University of Basilicata, Potenza, Italy
Joan Casas-Roma Faculty of Computer Sciences, Multimedia and Telecommunication,
Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC)—Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
Jordi Conesa Faculty of Computer Sciences, Multimedia and Telecommunication, Universitat
Oberta de Catalunya (UOC)—Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
Mário Dantas Computer Science Postgraduate Program, Knowledge Engineering Research Group,
Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora, Brazil
Thanasis Daradoumis Cultural Technology and Communication, University of the Aegean,
Lesvos, Greece
Esther David Department of Computer Science, Ashkelon Academic College, Ashkelon, Israel
José Maria N. David Computer Science Postgraduate Program, Knowledge Engineering Research
Group, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora, Brazil
Stavros Demetriadis Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
Nourredine EL Faddouli Department of Computer Science, Mohammadia School of Engineering,
Mohammed V University in Rabat, Rabat, Morocco

xvii
xviii List of contributors

Michalis Feidakis Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, University of West

Attica, Athens, Greece
Eleni Fotopoulou School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University
of Athens, Athens, Greece
Eduardo Gómez-Sánchez Valladolid University, Valladolid, Spain
Isaac Muro Guiu Institut Marta Estrada, Barcelona, Spain
Abdelladim Hadioui Department of Computer Science, Mohammadia School of Engineering,
Mohammed V University in Rabat, Rabat, Morocco
Niels Heller Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, München, Germany
Rocael Hernández Rizzardini Universidad Galileo, GES Department, Guatemala, Guatemala
Matthew Hodges Telefonica Education Digital, Madrid, Spain
Dorit Hutzler The Open University of Israel, Raanana, Israel
Debora Jeske School of Applied Psychology, University College Cork, Cork, Republic of Ireland
Meena Jha Central Queensland University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Anastasios Karakostas CERTH (Centre for Research and Technology Hellas), Thessaloniki,
Greece
Allison Kolling Saarland University, Saarbrücken, Germany
Kristijan Kuk University of Criminal Investigation and Police Studies, Belgrade, Serbia
Jianxin Li School of Information Technology, Deakin University, Geelong, VIC, Australia
Edis Mekić State University of Novi Pazar, Novi Pazar, Serbia
Konstantinos Michos Valladolid University, Valladolid, Spain
Miguel Morales Chan Universidad Galileo, GES Department, Guatemala, Guatemala
Felipe Neves Computer Science Postgraduate Program, Knowledge Engineering Research Group,
Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora, Brazil
Nadia Pantidi Computational Media Innovation Centre, Victoria University of Wellington,
Wellington, New Zealand
George Palaigeorgiou LearnWorlds, Limassol, Cyprus
Pantelis M. Papadopoulos Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
Symeon Papavassiliou School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical
University of Athens, Athens, Greece
Tijana Paunović School of Economics, Doboj, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Georgios Psathas Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
Deborah Richards Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW, Australia
Asmaa Sakr Collage of Engineering and Technology, University of Derby, Derby, United
Kingdom
Xiangyu Song School of Information Technology, Deakin University, Geelong, VIC, Australia
Victor Ströele Computer Science Postgraduate Program, Knowledge Engineering Research Group,
Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora, Brazil
Stergios Tegos Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
Yassine Benjelloun Touimi Department of Computer Science, Mohammadia School of
Engineering, Mohammed V University in Rabat, Rabat, Morocco
 List of contributors xix

Thrasyvoulos Tsiatsos Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece

Costas Tsibanis Greek Universities Network, Athens, Greece
Igor Vuković University of Criminal Investigation and Police Studies, Belgrade, Serbia
Armin Weinberger Saarland University, Saarbrücken, Germany
Christian Winther Bech Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
John Yoon Department of Mathematics and Computer Sciences, Mercy College, Dobbs Ferry,
NY, United States
Anastasios Zafeiropoulos School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical
University of Athens, Athens, Greece
Foreword
New technologies and especially information and communication technologies have
penetrated almost every dimension of society, including education. The promise for
increased efficiency and almost unlimited effectiveness has characterized each new wave of
educational technologies. During the current Covid-19 pandemic educational technologies
have been the cornerstone of remote education and an essential element of everyday life.
And of course, the potential synergy between artificial intelligence (AI) and education has
been considered for several decades. Expert and knowledge-based systems, accompanied by
powerful machine learning techniques, have promised adaptive and personalized learning,
or even seamless learning across formal, nonformal, and informal contexts. Lastly, data
sciences (DS) have emerged as another relevant companion, since interactions between
humans and systems can be easily registered and exploited, and therefore data can be
analyzed and eventually support all educational stakeholders. Designing, deploying, and
evaluating appropriate algorithms, tools, and systems using all these components is the
ultimate goal of many researchers and developers.
Such a technocentric approach has mostly dominated the discourse regarding the prominent
role of information and communications technologies, AI, and DS in education. However,
teaching and learning can be considered as highly complex individual and social processes
embedded in a wider social context. Cognitive and social processes cannot be easily
modeled and it is quite challenging to find the adequate role of software agents in the wider
educational process. Design cannot be effectively accomplished without a strong
involvement or all relevant stakeholders. On the other hand, rich data may be required
instead of massive clickstreams that may be interpreted through the lens of appropriate
educational theories. The debate on the role of educational technologies has not yet ended,
and eventually we may see a rise of new relevant and necessary discourses that may shed
light on this evolving field.
This book addresses several issues that have been highlighted above. Conversational agents
may interact with learners on a one-to-one basis or supporting group-level processes.
Learning analytics (LA) may be calculated and visualized in dashboards as a means for
learner self-, co-, or socially-shared regulation or as a support for decision-making by
teachers, curriculum designers, or administrators. Machine learning techniques can be used

xxi
xxii Foreword

in order to derive predictive models regarding at-risk students and dropout rates. LA-based
solutions may alleviate the scale issues for the efficient support of teaching assistants in
massive open online courses. Appropriate instructional approaches may be supported by or
complement AI approaches. Several promises and challenges are introduced and illustrated
by relevant researchers in this book.
Considering the contributions made in this book and a global view of educational
technologies or AI in education, one could mention some important issues that might be
part of the corresponding research agenda:
• Significant concerns have been expressed regarding the transparency and
trustworthiness of AI-based modeling and recommendations, and even more acutely for
the teaching and learning processes, where social or cognitive aspects are involved.
• Similarly, the agency of the humans, and especially teachers and students, is in danger
and the effectiveness of the designed tools is questioned. Therefore humans must be
brought in the loop, or even be at the center of the design process, giving rise to
human-centered LA and AI.
• Several critical voices have been echoed in the literature, and especially during the
Covid-19 pandemic, regarding the technocentric view of educational technologies,
advocating for an increased focus on the social aims of education and calling for a
renewed role of the teachers, as mediators.
• Since advances in educational technologies, and especially in LA, have usually been
derived in a single field and mostly by technologists, a unified theoretical view might
be considered, for example, through the consolidated view of LA that brings together
design, learning theory, and DS.
• AI-based support to learners and teachers should consider not only the learner as an
individual, but also take into account the community-level interactions and the group-
level teaching and learning processes. Similarly, the institutional analytics might be
analyzed in conjunction with the LA in order to allow for a wider adoption and impact.
• Well-known techniques and approaches in AI might be further explored, such as
process and text mining, sentiment analysis, or multiagent systems, always taking into
account the special and unique characteristics of teaching and learning.
• An integrated view should be sought regarding the selection and use of hard and soft
sensors; the construction of analytics, meaningful to both theory and stakeholders; and
the provision of mirroring, advising, and guiding actions.
• Professional development and capacity building actions might be studied and enacted,
especially regarding teachers and learning designers. These initiatives should especially
take into account the barriers for a smooth and pedagogically sound adoption of the
tools, and consider that ultimately the effective use of tools is heavily conditioned by
the technological and pedagogical knowledge, or even the attitudes and beliefs of
teachers.
 Foreword xxiii

I believe that relevant recent interdisciplinary research work has been paving the way to a
better understanding of the role of AI, LA, and educational technologies in education, and
eventually advancing toward a better education. This book allows for a further step forward,
although significant and challenging work is still pending in this complex and highly
relevant field for society.

Yannis Dimitriadis
Department of Telematics Engineering, GSIC/EMIC Research Group,
Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain
Preface
Online education and especially massive open online courses (MOOCs) arose as a way of
transcending formal higher education by realizing technology-enhanced formats of learning
and instruction and by granting access to an audience way beyond students enrolled in any
one higher education institution (HEI). However, the potential for European HEIs to scale
up and reach an international audience of diverse backgrounds has not been realized yet.
MOOCs have been reported as an efficient and important educational tool, yet there are a
number of issues and problems related to their educational impact. More specifically, there
is an important number of dropouts during a course, little participation, and lack of
students’ motivation and engagement overall. This may be due to one-size-fits-all
instructional approaches and very limited commitment to student student and
teacher student collaboration.
Previous studies combine Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based approaches, such as the use of
conversational agents (CA), chatbots, and data analytics in order to face the above
challenges. However, these studies explore these and other AI approaches separately, thus
having less impact in the learning process. Therefore the effective integration of AI novel
approaches in education in terms of pedagogical CA and learning analytics (LA) will create
beneficial synergies to relevant learning dimensions, resulting in students’ greater
participation and performance while lowering dropout rates and improving satisfaction and
retention levels. In addition, tutors, academic coordinators, and managers will be provided
with tools that will facilitate the formative and monitoring processes.
Specifically, the book aims to provide novel AI and analytics-based methods to improve
online teaching and learning, addressing key problems such as the problem of attrition in
MOOCs and online learning in general. To this end, the book contributes to the educational
sector at different levels:
• Deliver new learning and teaching methods for online learning (with a specific focus on
MOOCs), building on novel technologies in collaborative learning, such as CA and LA,
that are capable of boosting learner interaction and facilitate learners’ self-regulation
and -assessment.
• Demonstrate and validate the built capacity for innovative teaching and learning
methods and mainstream them to the existing education and training systems, by the

xxv
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
 Although busy during the winter in Parliament, Lincoln worked
very hard at his business. He knew that no one can succeed in
anything without hard work, and he saw that to become a really good
lawyer would help him in politics, and make him a more useful citizen
of the State. Moreover, he understood, more clearly than most men
have done, that every deed in life is connected to every other; no
man can escape the consequences of what he is and does. Every
act and every speech is important.
Lincoln was four times elected to the Illinois Parliament—that is,
he sat in it for eight years. For four years—between 1845-49—he
was member for Illinois in Congress. In Congress he spoke and
voted against the war that was being waged against Mexico. The
aim of the war was the conquest of Texas and California. The South
urged this because they wanted the number of slave-owning States
to be equal to the number of free States. They were always afraid
that new States would be created out of the undeveloped territory in
the North-West; and, if this were to happen, the slave States would
be in a minority in Congress. If Texas were added as a slave State,
the slave States would have a majority of one: there would be
fourteen free and fifteen slave States. The Northern members, for
the most part, did not see the point; they did not unite against the
Southern demands; and consequently the South succeeded. In the
war Mexico was defeated, and Texas was added to the Union.
At the end of his last year of membership, 1849, Lincoln applied
for a post in the Government office. Why he did so it is difficult to
understand, for it would have put an end to his political career, as
officials may not sit in the House. Fortunately his request was
refused.
He returned to his home in Springfield, where he lived in a big,
plain house, painted a dirty yellow, with a big piece of untidy garden
behind, and a small field at the side. He had married seven years
before, and had now three sons. He was devoted to these boys, and
used to play all sorts of games with them, as they grew bigger.
 For the next five years he devoted himself mainly to his work as a
lawyer. He was now forty years of age. In Springfield and
everywhere in Illinois he was admired, respected, and loved. But the
high opinion of other people never made him easily satisfied with
himself. To the end of his life he never stopped working and learning.
He now resolved to become a really good lawyer. He knew that in
law he could learn the art of persuading people, and of expressing
clearly what he wanted to say. To help in this he took up the study of
mathematics with extraordinary energy. Examining his own
speeches, he seemed to find in them some confusion of thought. To
make his own ideas clear, and to be sure that he expressed them
clearly and truly, and never conveyed to others an impression that
was not true, he bought a text-book of Euclid. The first six books of
this he learnt by heart. He said “I wanted to know what was the
meaning of the word ‘demonstrate.’ Euclid taught me what
demonstration was.”
After a year or two Lincoln was regarded as the equal of any
lawyer in Springfield. He had one weakness, however. If he did not
believe in the justice of his case, or if he thought the man for whom
he had to speak was not quite honest, he did not defend well. His
friend Judge Davis says, “A wrong cause was poorly defended by
him.”
A story is told of a man who came to Lincoln’s office and asked
his help in getting six hundred dollars from a poor widow. Lincoln
listened to the man and then said, “Yes, there is no reasonable doubt
but I can gain your case for you. I can set a whole neighbourhood at
loggerheads. I can distress a widowed mother and her six fatherless
children, and thereby get for you six hundred dollars which rightfully
belong, as it appears to me, as much to them as it does to you. I
advise you to try your hand at making six hundred dollars some
other way.”
Every one in Springfield valued “Honest Abe’s” opinion. All sorts
of people brought their troubles to him. His sympathy and his
tenderness of heart made them trust him. He was one of the people;
he never felt himself above them. To the end of his life he did not
grow proud, and he was never ashamed of his early poverty. When
he was President he told some of his friends of a dream he had had,
which might very well have been true. He dreamt that at some big
public meeting he was walking through the hall up to the platform,
from which he was going to speak. As he passed, a lady sitting at
the end of one of the rows of seats said to another sitting next her,
so loudly that he could hear: “Is that Mr. Lincoln? Why, he looks a
very common sort of person!” “I thought to myself in my dream,” said
Lincoln, “that it was true, but that God Almighty seemed to prefer
common people, for He had made so many of them.”
Nothing in Lincoln is more truly great than his power of seeing the
value of common things and common people. He knew that the
things which appeal to men as men, which are common to humanity,
are the most valuable of all. He counted on this when he abolished
slavery. Freedom is a right common to all men; and there is
somewhere in every one an instinct which knows that it is wrong to
make other people do things which are too disagreeable to do
yourself.
During these years at Springfield, Abraham read a great deal.
Shakespeare and Burns were his favourite poets: he knew
Shakespeare better than any other book except the Bible. He read
and thought unceasingly about politics, and he talked about them
with his friends. The history of America he studied until he knew
everything there was to know. Above all, he thought about slavery.
Events were taking place which made it plain that the question of
slavery could not be left where it was. It was no longer possible to
act as if the difference between North and South did not exist.
As years went on the difference became more and more plain.
The North, which had been poor and barren, only half cultivated by
ignorant and uneducated settlers, was growing richer than the
prosperous lazy South. Workmen came to the North from all parts of
the world: poor men with good brains and strong arms, ready and
able to work intelligently, to improve the land, to make wheat grow
where stones and bushes had been. None of these men went to the
South, for there work was done by slaves so cheaply that no paid
worker had a chance. But the difference between the intelligent
labour of free men working for themselves, and the mechanical
labour of slaves working for their masters, soon began to tell.
In the North schools sprang up everywhere: the people became
better and better educated. Men who had grown up in the
backwoods, like Abraham Lincoln, taught themselves, and rose to be
lawyers and statesmen by their own efforts; others who had had the
chance of being taught, did the same. It was possible for any man of
brains to rise from the bottom to the top. Inventions were made
which enabled all kinds of new work to be done and new wealth
produced. The North was rich in material: richer in the men she had
to work it, who were helped and encouraged by the freedom which
threw every career open to real talent.
In the South all power was in the hands of the aristocratic
families, who had had it always. The work was done by slaves:
owners did not want to educate their slaves, for then they were afraid
that they would want their freedom. The coal mines of the South
were not discovered; they could not have been worked by slaves.
The South began to be very jealous of the North, and the North
began to disapprove of the South. More and more people began to
see that slavery was wrong: people were not yet ready to say that
slavery ought to cease to be, but they were ready to say that it must
not be extended.
At the time of the Mexican war the South had shown that it
wanted to extend slavery. This frightened the North. In 1850 an
agreement was made, known as the Missouri Compromise. By this a
line (36°30’), called Mason and Dixon’s line, was drawn across the
map of America. North of this line, slavery was never to exist.
Speakers on both sides declared that the Missouri Compromise was
as fixed as the Constitution itself. Stephen Arnold Douglas was the
loudest in expressing this opinion. “It is eternal and fundamental,” he
declared.
 Douglas was a trader of the great party known as the Democrats.
He held that the people of every State had a right to decide
questions affecting that State, and not the Central American
Government.
Douglas had one great aim, which was to him far more important
than any question of political right or wrong: he wanted to be made
President. To secure this, he saw that he must get the support of the
South. To win the support of the South, he took a most dangerous
and important step: one which was the immediate cause of the war
which broke out six years later. He declared that the people of any
state or territory could decide whether or not they would have slavery
in their State: they could establish it or prohibit it.
He went further than this. Two new territories had been organised
in the north-west—Nebraska and Kansas. They claimed to be
admitted to the Union as States. Both States were, of course, north
of Mason and Dixon’s line, and therefore by the Missouri
Compromise they must be free States. But the South was bent on
creating new slave States as fast as the North could create free
States: they wanted to make Kansas a slave State. Stephen Douglas
therefore introduced, in 1854, the famous Kansas-Nebraska Bill. It
declared that Kansas might be slave-holding or free, as the people of
the territory should decide.
The result of this Bill was for the first time to unite together a
strong party in the North in opposition to the Democrats, who were
allied to the South. This new party called itself Republican. Lincoln
was a spokesman of their views. They declared, firstly, that
Congress, which is the Parliament representing all the States which
together formed the Union, has the right to decide whether slavery
shall be lawful in any particular State or not, and not the people of
that State alone. Secondly, they declared that, in the case of Kansas,
Congress had already, four years ago, decided that Kansas could
not have slavery, because it lay beyond the line, north of which
slavery could not exist. Resolutions were passed in many of the
Northern State Parliaments against the Kansas-Nebraska Bill. The
Parliament of Illinois sent one.
Now it was quite clear to keen-sighted politicians that, while
Douglas and his party pretended that they wanted to give the people
of Kansas the choice between owning slaves and not doing so, what
they really wanted was to force Kansas to have slaves. Those who
supported the Missouri Congress declared that it was illegal to give
Kansas the choice however she used it.
Events soon proved that Kansas was not to have any choice at
all. Kansas had few inhabitants; but the opinion of the people of the
State was against slavery. Next door to Kansas, however, on the
east, was the slave-holding State of Missouri. From Missouri bands
of armed men came into Kansas in order to vote for slavery at the
election and to prevent the real voters from using their votes against
it. Free fighting went on in the State. An election was held at which
armed men kept away those who would have voted for freedom, and
a pro-slavery man was chosen. But few of the people of Kansas had
been allowed to vote. The free party met at another place
afterwards, and a genuine popular vote elected an anti-slavery man.
Civil war went on in Kansas for two years.
Now the importance of these events is this. Up till now most
people in the North had believed that slavery ought to be left alone,
because it would gradually die out. The Kansas-Nebraska Bill and
the Kansas election made it perfectly clear that the South was not
going to let slavery die out; on the contrary, they wanted to spread it
to strengthen themselves against the North.
Douglas was member for Chicago, in the north of Illinois. He
came down to Illinois to win the State to his views, and made a
series of speeches there. This at once called Lincoln to the fore. He
saw more clearly, perhaps, than any man in America what the
Kansas Bill meant. It meant that either North and South must
separate, as the Abolitionists—that is, the party which held that
slavery ought to cease to be—and some people in the South hoped;
or that the North would have to force the South to abandon the
attempt to spread slavery. He made a series of great speeches in
Illinois, in which he made it quite clear that Douglas and his
followers, and the men of the South, might say that they wanted to
leave States free to have slavery or not as they chose, but what they
really desired was to force them to have slavery whether they chose
or not. “This declared indifference, but, as I must think, covert real
zeal for the spread of slavery, I cannot but hate: I hate it because of
the monstrous injustice of slavery itself ... I say that no man is good
enough to govern another man without that man’s consent. Slavery
is founded upon the selfishness of man’s nature; opposition to it, on
his love of justice.”
 CHAPTER V
DEFEAT OF THE LITTLE GIANT

Lincoln had worked very hard in Illinois. All this year he was
making speeches; educating the people of the State; helping them
to understand the big questions before them; making things clear in
his own mind by putting them into the clear and simple words that
would carry their importance to the minds of others.
A great meeting was held, summoned by the editors of the
newspapers that were against the Kansas Bill; they invited prominent
men from different parts of the country to come and address them.
Lincoln was among those who went, and his speech was by far
the most important of all that were delivered there. He had not,
indeed, intended to say anything; but he was roused by the
weakness of those who did address the meeting. Springing to his
feet, he poured out what was in his mind, and could not be kept
back, in such burning and eloquent words that the reporters dropped
their pencils and listened spellbound. The whole audience was
carried away by excitement: it was one of the greatest speeches that
Lincoln ever made, we are told by all who heard it, but there is no
record of it. Lincoln himself spoke in a transport of enthusiasm: the
words came, how he hardly knew; he could not afterwards write
down what he had said. The reporters were so deeply moved that
they only took down a sentence here and there. The speech was a
warning to the growing Republican party: sentences were quoted
and remembered.
The North was indeed beginning to awaken to the need of uniting
against slavery; but it took four years before it fully awoke. And as
long as the North was divided the South was irresistible. When the
presidential election came, in 1856, the votes of the South carried
the day.

Springing to his feet, he poured out what was in his mind

Had a strong man, with definite and wise views, been elected,
had Lincoln been elected, the war between North and South that
came four years later might have been prevented. But Lincoln’s fame
had not yet travelled far beyond Illinois; he was not even nominated.
Mr. Buchanan, the new President, called himself a Democrat: he
believed in Douglas’s policy of State rights; but he was a tool in the
hands of the South. Weak and undecided, his stupid administration
made war inevitable. He did not satisfy the South; and he showed
the North how great a danger they were in, so that when the next
election came they were ready to act.
The Republican party gradually grew strong. More and more
Northern voters came to see that its policy, no extension of slavery,
was the only right one. The pro-slavery party in Kansas continued to
behave in the most violent way; civil war continued.
In Congress, Charles Sumner made a number of eloquent
speeches on what he called the “crime against Kansas”; and in them
he openly attacked slavery. One day, as he was sitting in the
members’ reading-room, a Southern member called Brookes came
in. Although there were several other people in the room, Brookes
fell upon Sumner, and with his heavy walking-stick, which was
weighted with lead at the end, beat him within an inch of his life. For
the next four years Sumner was an invalid, and unable to take part in
politics. This incident caused great indignation in the North; their
indignation was heightened by the attempt to force slavery on
Kansas, till it grew in very many cases to a real hatred of slavery
itself.
But there was still a large party in the North which did not
disapprove of slavery. This party was led, of course, by Douglas.
Douglas had been successful up till now, because he represented
the ordinary man of the North, whose conscience was not yet awake,
who did not see that slavery, in itself, was wrong. Lincoln had never
really succeeded until now, because his conscience had always
been awake, and the ordinary Northerner was not ready to follow
him.
The whole question of slavery was brought under discussion in
the next year—1857—by the famous case of a negro called Dred
Scott. Dred Scott claimed his freedom before the United States
courts, because his master, a doctor, had taken him to live in the free
State of Illinois. The chief-justice—Taney—was an extreme pro-
slavery man. He was not satisfied with deciding the case against
Dred Scott; he went much further, and declared that since a negro is
property and not a person in the legal sense, he could not bring a
case before an American court. A negro, he declared, has no rights
which a white man is bound to respect.
The South, of course, was delighted with this verdict. What it
meant was this. When the Declaration of Independence declared
that all men are equal, and possess right to life and liberty, what was
intended was not all men, but all white men, since black men are not
legally men. And yet free negroes had fought in the War of
Independence, and signed the Declaration.
To the North such reasoning was hateful. People like Mr. Seward
of New York began to say, If slavery is part of the Constitution of
America, there is a law that is higher than the Constitution—the
moral law. Abraham Lincoln in a noble speech declared: “In some
respects the black woman is certainly not my equal, but in her
natural right to eat the bread she earns with her own hands she is
my equal, and the equal of all others.” The point was, could a negro
have rights? The Dred Scott decision declared “no,” the South
shouted “no.” The Republican party said “yes.” In this same year a
free election at last took place in Kansas; and a huge majority
decided that the State should not hold slaves.
All these events showed that troublous times were coming.
In the next year a set of speeches was made which showed
people how things stood. In 1858 Lincoln stood against Douglas as
candidate for the State of Illinois. Douglas was one of the most
famous and popular men then living in America. He was far the
cleverest man and the best speaker of his party; he stood for all
those who, though they might not want to have slaves themselves,
thought that slavery was not wrong; that black men were intended by
a kind Providence to be useful to white men. If any State wanted
slaves, let them have them—why not?
 As Lincoln said, “Douglas is so put up by nature, that a lash upon
his back would hurt him, but a lash upon anybody else’s back does
not hurt him.”
Those who did not know Lincoln thought it absurd that he, an
unknown man from the country, should dare to stand against
Douglas, the “Little Giant.” But Lincoln was not afraid; he did not
think of himself; he wanted people to hear what he had to say. He
arranged with Douglas that they should hold a number of meetings
together in Illinois. They arranged it in this way. At half the meetings
Douglas spoke first for an hour; then Lincoln replied, speaking for an
hour and a half, and Douglas answered him in half-an-hour’s
speech. At the other half, Lincoln began and Douglas followed,
Lincoln ending.
You can imagine one of these meetings. A large hall, roughly built
for the most part, the seats often made of planks laid on top of
unhewn logs, packed with two or three thousand people, intensely
eager to hear and learn. Some of them were already followers of
Douglas, the most popular man in America: all of them had heard of
the “Little Giant,” the cleverest speaker in the States. Immense
cheering as Douglas rose to his feet. A small man with a big head: a
handsome face with quickly moving, keen, dark eyes; faultlessly
dressed. A well-bred gentleman, secure of himself—a lawyer with all
his art at the end of his tongue: able to persuade any one that black
was white, to wrap up anything in so many charming words that only
the cleverest could see when one statement did not follow from
another, when an argument was not a proof: quick to see and stab
the weak points in any one else. A voice rich and mellow, various
and well trained, pleased all who heard it.
For an hour he spoke, amid complete silence, only broken by
outbursts of applause. When he ended, there were deafening cheers
—then a pause, and “Lincoln,” “Lincoln,” from all parts of the hall.
Lincoln seemed an awkward countryman beside the senator. His
tall body seemed too big for the platform, and his ill-fitting black
clothes hung loosely upon it, as if they had been made for some one
else. When he began to speak his voice was harsh and shrill. His
huge hands, the hands of a labourer, with the big knuckles and red,
ugly wrists, got knotted together as if nothing could unfix them. Soon,
however, he became absorbed in what he was saying; he ceased to
be nervous; everything seemed to change. As he forgot himself, his
body seemed to expand and straighten itself, so that every one else
looked small and mean beside him; his voice became deep and
clear, reaching to the farthest end of the hall, and his face, that had
appeared ugly, was lit up with an inner light that made it more than
beautiful. The deep grey eyes seemed to each man in the hall to be
looking at him and piercing his soul. The language was so simple
that the most ignorant man in the hall could follow it and understand.
Everything was clear. There was no hiding under fine words; nothing
was left out, nothing unnecessary was said. No one could doubt
what Lincoln meant; and he was not going to let any one doubt what
Douglas meant.
The greatest debate of all was that at the meeting at Freeport. At
Freeport Lincoln asked Douglas a question, against the advice of all
his friends. He asked whether, if a State wanted not to have slavery,
it could so decide? Lincoln knew that if Douglas said “No. A state
which had slavery must keep it,” the people of Illinois would not vote
for him, and he would lose this election. If he said “yes” he would be
elected, and not Lincoln. Lincoln knew this; he knew that if Douglas
said “yes,” he was safe, and he would say “yes.”
“Where do you come in, then?” his friends asked him. “Why do
you ask him this? If you do, Douglas is sure to get in. You are ruining
your own chances.”
“I do not come in anywhere,” said Lincoln; “but that does not
matter. What does matter is this. If Douglas says ‘yes,’ as he will, he
will get into the Senate now; but two years after this he will stand for
election as President. If he says ‘yes’ now, the South will vote
against him then, and he will not be elected. He must not be elected.
No one who believes in spreading slavery must be elected. It does
not matter about me.”
 Lincoln was quite right. He saw further than any one else.
Douglas said “yes,” and he was elected for Illinois. But the
Democratic party in the South, whose support had made him strong,
began to distrust him. “Douglas,” said Lincoln, “is followed by a
crowd of blind men; I want to make some of these blind men see.”
Lincoln was defeated, but he did not think of himself. His
speeches against Douglas were printed and read all over America.
He was invited to speak in Ohio; and in the next year, in the
beginning of 1860, a society in New York asked him to come and
give them an address on politics.
A huge audience, in which were all the best known and most
brilliant men of the day, gathered to hear him; an audience very
much unlike any that he had addressed before. They were all
anxious to see what he was like—this backwoodsman and farm-
labourer, who had met the great Stephen Arnold Douglas and proved
a match for him in argument; whose speeches had been printed to
express the views of a whole party.
His appearance was strange and impressive. When he stood up
his height was astonishing, because his legs were very long, and
when sitting he did not appear tall. His face, thin and marked by
deep lines, was very sad. A mass of black hair was pushed back
from his high forehead: his eyebrows were black too, and stood out
in his pale face: his dark-grey eyes were set deep in his head. The
mouth could smile, but now it was stern and sad. The face was
unlike other faces: when he spoke it was beautiful, for he felt
everything he said. Abraham Lincoln was a common man: he had
had no advantages of birth, of training: he had known extreme
poverty: for years he had struggled without success in mean and
small occupations: he had no knowledge but what he had taught
himself. But no one who heard him speak could think him common.
Speaking now to an audience in which were the cleverest people
in New York, people who had read everything and seen everything
and been everywhere, who had had every opportunity that he had
not, he impressed them as much as he had impressed the people of
Illinois. He was one of the greatest orators that ever lived. His words
went straight to the people to whom they were spoken. What he said
was as straightforward and as certain as a sum in arithmetic, as
easy to follow: and behind it all you felt that the man believed every
word of what he said, and spoke because he must. The truth was in
him.
Lincoln’s address in New York convinced the Republican party
that here was the man they wanted.
In 1860 there came the presidential election, always the most
important event in American politics; this year more important than
ever before.
For the last half-century almost the Democratic party had been in
power. They had been strong because they were united: they united
the people of the South and those people in the North who thought
that it was waste of time to discuss slavery, since slavery was part of
the Constitution. Their policy on slavery had been to leave it alone.
As long as they did this there was nothing to create another party in
the North strong enough to oppose them. But when Douglas, in
order to make his own position strong in the South, made slavery
practical politics by bringing in a bill to allow Kansas to have slaves;
and when the judges in the Dred Scott case roused sympathy with
the negroes by declaring that slaves were not men but property, then
the question united the divided North into a strong Republican party
in which all were agreed. There was to be no slavery north of Mason
and Dixon’s line. The attempt to force slavery on Kansas split the
Democratic party. One section was led by Douglas, who had gone as
far as he could: he was not ready to force Kansas to have slaves, if
she did not want them, because people from Missouri wanted her to
have them. He saw that to force slavery on the North in this way
would mean division and war, and therefore he refused to go any
further. By this refusal Douglas lost his supporters in the South. They
joined the section led by Jefferson Davis—the Southern candidate
for the presidentship.
 Jefferson Davis was the true leader of the South. Douglas as well
as Lincoln had begun life as the child of a poor pioneer: each had
risen by his own abilities and by constant hard work. Jefferson Davis
was a true aristocrat. He was the son of rich and educated parents.
All his life he had been waited on by slaves and surrounded by every
comfort. While Lincoln was ploughing or hewing wood, while
Douglas was working hard at the bar, Davis went first to the
university at Kentucky and then to the military academy at West
Point, from which he passed to the army. He served as a lieutenant
at the time of the Black Hawk war, and it is very likely that he came
across Lincoln, who was serving as a volunteer. After serving seven
years in the army he married and settled down as a cotton planter in
Mississippi. His estates were worked by slaves, of course. To him
the negro was an animal, quite different from the white man, meant
by nature to be under him and to serve him. Black men, unlike white,
did not exist for themselves, with the equal right to live possessed by
a man, an insect, or a tree, but had been created solely to be useful
to white men.
No two men could be more unlike than Lincoln and Davis. The
groundwork of Davis’ nature was an intense pride. A friend described
him as “as ambitious as Lucifer and as cold as a lizard.” He was cold
in manner and seldom laughed. Lincoln was entirely humble-minded,
full of passionate longing to help the weak. To Lincoln what was
common was therefore precious. Jefferson Davis said the minority,
and not the majority, ought to rule. And their looks were as unlike as
their minds. Jefferson Davis, with his beautiful proud face, as cold
and as handsome as a statue, expressed the utter contempt and
scorn of the aristocrat for everything and every one beneath him.
When the Democratic party met at Charleston to nominate their
candidate for the presidentship, they were hopelessly divided.
Douglas’s Freeport speech had set the South against him. For the
last four years there had been a growing section which said that, as
long as the South was fastened to the North, slavery was not safe.
Now seven states, led by South Carolina, left the Democratic
meeting and nominated Davis as their candidate.
 The Republican party met at Chicago. There was only one man
strong, reasonable, and sane enough for every section of the party
to accept. This was Abraham Lincoln. At the time of his nomination,
Lincoln was playing barnball with his children in the field behind his
house. When told that he had been chosen, he said, “You must be
able to find some better man than me.” But he was ready to take up
the difficult task. He knew that he could serve his country, and he
was not afraid. He had a clear ideal before him—to preserve
America as one united whole. He saw that war might come. As he
had said, five years before, America could not endure for ever half
slave and half free—it must be all free: and the South would not let
slavery go without war.
The election came in November. The result was that Lincoln was
elected President. For four years the destiny of his country was in his
hands.
 CHAPTER VI
THE NEW PRESIDENT AND SECESSION

Lincoln’s election was a thunderbolt to the South. It meant that the

great question of slavery would have to be decided one way or
another. Lincoln was a man who had opinions, and opinions in which
he believed, for which he would fight; he would not let things drift as
Buchanan did. Buchanan’s policy would have ended in allowing the
South to separate itself from the North; the Southern politicians knew
this, and they wanted Buchanan’s policy carried on, so as to make
that separation possible.
Few men in the North, although many in the South, understood
as clearly as Lincoln did the position of affairs. He saw that the time
had come when active measures must be taken, a strong and
decided policy maintained, if the Union was to be held together. He
was a true patriot. He believed in the Union; he thought it a great and
glorious thing. That North and South should be separated was to him
like separating husband and wife; their strength and happiness lay in
each other; they had grown together for eighty-four years; if they
parted now, each must lose something it could never regain. He
loved his country. He loved the South as well as the North. He
believed that if the South tried to separate, the North would be
justified, in the true interests of the American nation, in compelling
her to remain.
The great problem was now, as he saw: Could America hold
together as one nation, half slave and half free? Could the Union be
a real Union while there was this deep division, a division which it
was now clear could not be got rid of, as the Northerners had hoped
for so long, by the slow passage of time? Time alone would not
induce the South to give up slavery. Slavery was a barbarous
institution, degrading to the slaves and to those who owned them;
the North could not accept it. If North and South were to hold
together slavery must go. The great thing was to keep North and
South united. This and this only was Lincoln’s great purpose. He
hated slavery, but he would not have compelled the South to give up
slavery if he had believed that the Union could have been
maintained without that. North and South must hold together
whatever it cost; only so could each part of the nation, and the nation
as a whole, attain the best that was possible for it.
Lincoln’s great difficulty was this. The South saw that the nation
could not hold together for ever half slave and half free. Two years
before Lincoln’s election, one of the members for South Carolina had
written what was afterwards known as the Scarlet Letter. In it he
declared, “We can make a revolution in the cotton States,” and there
were many, even at that time, who shared his views. The South saw
that, if they were to remain united to the North, slavery must go, and
they were ready to separate from the North in order to keep slavery.
But, while the South understood the position, the North did not. It
did not understand it fully at the time of Lincoln’s election, or, indeed,
until the end of the second year of the war. And because they did not
understand they could not appreciate Lincoln’s policy, or support it
as they ought to have done. All the time they criticised, blamed, and
abused him, making his hard task harder.
Not until after his death did all the Northerners see how great and
how right he had been. Not until his death did Americans realise that
had it not been for Lincoln the United States might have ceased to
be.
Lincoln’s speeches had been plain and outspoken enough; the
South was terrified by his election. They resolved on separation.
Lincoln, though elected in November 1860, did not actually
become President until February 1861. During these three months
he remained in the plain, yellow house at Springfield, his little office
crowded every day with visitors who came to consult him, to advise
him, or often merely to shake his hand. “Honest old Abe,” as they
called him, had a joke or a kindly word for all of them. He was
presented with many quaint gifts. An old woman came one day, and,
after shaking hands with Lincoln, produced from under her huge
cloak a vast pair of knitted stockings for the President to wear in
winter. Lincoln thanked her graciously and led her out; then
returning, he lifted up the stockings, and showing the enormous feet,
said to his secretary, “The old lady seems to have guessed the
latitude and longitude about right!”
Lincoln spent the time reading and writing, drawing up
memoranda, choosing his Cabinet, learning the difficult ins and outs
of the new work before him. All these months he was thinking hard.
His purpose was already clear: but the presidentship, always a
heavy burden, had never been so heavy as it was to be for Lincoln.
Things grew more serious every day. The weakness of
Buchanan, who had no plan or purpose, allowed the South to do as
it chose. The only chance of avoiding war lay in firm action now; but
it was not in Buchanan’s nature to be firm. He had been made
President by the votes of the South because he was not firm,
because he would allow them to do as they chose. They dreaded
Lincoln because he was firm, and therefore acted while there was
yet time.
On December 20, 1860, the chief men of South Carolina met
together and declared the Union to be dissolved. Posters appeared
all over the State: the South was in a state of feverish excitement.
Within the month the States of Missouri, Alabama, Florida, Georgia,
Louisiana, and Texas—the chief cotton-growing, slave-owning States
—also declared themselves to be separated from the Union; and
these six States joined with South Carolina to form what they called
the Southern Confederation, independent of the North. They chose
for their first President Jefferson Davis.
Buchanan did not know what to do. The question was: Has a
State any right to leave the Union? America, of course, is a
Federation: at the time of the Declaration of Independence the
thirteen States that then existed joined themselves together for ever,