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Business Analytics
Descriptive Predictive Prescriptive
Jeffrey D. Camm James J. Cochran

Wake Forest University University of Alabama
Michael J. Fry Jeffrey W. Ohlmann

University of Cincinnati University of Iowa
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Printed in the United States of America

Print Number: 01 Print Year: 2023
Brief Contents
About the Authors xix
Preface xxi
Chapter 1 Introduction to Business Analytics 1

Chapter 2 Descriptive Statistics 21
Chapter 3 Data Visualization 83
Chapter 4 Data Wrangling: Data Management and Data Cleaning
Strategies 151
Chapter 5 Probability: An Introduction to Modeling Uncertainty 199
Chapter 6 Descriptive Data Mining 257
Chapter 7 Statistical Inference 319
Chapter 8 Linear Regression 393
Chapter 9 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting 471
Chapter 10 Predictive Data Mining: Regression Tasks 523
Chapter 11 Predictive Data Mining: Classification Tasks 571
Chapter 12 Spreadsheet Models 633
Chapter 13 Monte Carlo Simulation 671
Chapter 14 Linear Optimization Models 743
Chapter 15 Integer Linear Optimization Models 805
Chapter 16 Nonlinear Optimization Models 849
Chapter 17 Decision Analysis 893
Multi-Chapter Case Problems
Capital State University Game-Day Magazines 943
Hanover Inc. 945
Appendix A Basics of Excel 947
Appendix B Database Basics with Microsoft Access 959
Appendix C Solutions to Even-Numbered Problems
(Cengage eBook)
Appendix D Microsoft Excel Online and Tools for Statistical Analysis
(Cengage eBook)
References Available in the Cengage eBook

Index 997
Contents
About the Authors xix
Preface xxi
Chapter 1 Introduction to Business Analytics 1

1.1 Decision Making 3
1.2 Business Analytics Defined 3
1.3 A Categorization of Analytical Methods and Models 4
Descriptive Analytics 4
Predictive Analytics 5
Prescriptive Analytics 5
1.4 Big Data, the Cloud, and Artificial Intelligence 6
Volume 6
Velocity 6
Variety 7
Veracity 7
1.5 Business Analytics in Practice 9
Accounting Analytics 9
Financial Analytics 10
Human Resource (HR) Analytics 10
Marketing Analytics 10
Health Care Analytics 11
Supply Chain Analytics 11
Analytics for Government and Nonprofits 11
Sports Analytics 12
Web Analytics 12
1.6 Legal and Ethical Issues in the Use of Data and Analytics 12
Summary 15
Glossary 15
Problems 16
Available in the Cengage eBook:
Appendix: Getting Started with R and Rstudio
Appendix: Basic Data Manipulation with R
Chapter 2 Descriptive Statistics 21

2.1 Overview of Using Data: Definitions and Goals 23
2.2 Types of Data 24
Population and Sample Data 24
Quantitative and Categorical Data 24
Cross-Sectional and Time Series Data 24
Sources of Data 25
2.3 Exploring Data in Excel 27
Sorting and Filtering Data in Excel 27
Conditional Formatting of Data in Excel 30
vi Contents
2.4 Creating Distributions from Data 32

Frequency Distributions for Categorical Data 32
Relative Frequency and Percent Frequency Distributions 33
Frequency Distributions for Quantitative Data 35
Histograms 37
Frequency Polygons 42
Cumulative Distributions 43
2.5 Measures of Location 46
Mean (Arithmetic Mean) 46
Median 47
Mode 48
Geometric Mean 48
2.6 Measures of Variability 51
Range 51
Variance 52
Standard Deviation 53
Coefficient of Variation 54
2.7 Analyzing Distributions 54
Percentiles 55
Quartiles 56
z-Scores 56
Empirical Rule 57
Identifying Outliers 59
Boxplots 59
2.8 Measures of Association Between Two Variables 62
Scatter Charts 62
Covariance 64
Correlation Coefficient 67
Summary 68
Glossary 69
Problems 70
Case Problem 1: Heavenly Chocolates Web Site Transactions 80
Case Problem 2: African Elephant Populations 81
Appendix: Descriptive Statistics with R
Chapter 3 Data Visualization 83

3.1 Overview of Data Visualization 86
Preattentive Attributes 86
Data-Ink Ratio 89
3.2 Tables 92
Table Design Principles 93
Crosstabulation 94
PivotTables in Excel 97
3.3 Charts 101
Scatter Charts 101
Contents vii
Recommended Charts in Excel 103

Line Charts 104
Bar Charts and Column Charts 108
A Note on Pie Charts and Three-Dimensional Charts 112
Additional Visualizations for Multiple Variables: Bubble Chart,
Scatter Chart Matrix, and Table Lens 112
PivotCharts in Excel 117
3.4 Specialized Data Visualizations 120
Heat Maps 120
Treemaps 121
Waterfall Charts 122
Stock Charts 124
Parallel-Coordinates Chart 126
3.5 Visualizing Geospatial Data 126
Choropleth Maps 127
Cartograms 129
3.6 Data Dashboards 131
Principles of Effective Data Dashboards 131
Applications of Data Dashboards 132
Summary 134
Glossary 134
Problems 136
Case Problem 1: Pelican Stores 149
Case Problem 2: Movie Theater Releases 150
Appendix: Creating Tabular and Graphical Presentations with R
Appendix: Data Visualization with Tableau
Chapter 4 Data Wrangling: Data Management and Data

Cleaning Strategies 151
4.1 Discovery 153
Accessing Data 153
The Format of the Raw Data 157
4.2 Structuring 158
Data Formatting 159
Arrangement of Data 159
Splitting a Single Field into Multiple Fields 161
Combining Multiple Fields into a Single Field 165
4.3 Cleaning 167
Missing Data 167
Identification of Erroneous Outliers, Other Erroneous Values,
and Duplicate Records 170
4.4 Enriching 176
Subsetting Data 177
Supplementing Data 179
Enhancing Data 182
viii Contents
4.5 Validating and Publishing 186

Validating 186
Publishing 188
Summary 188
Glossary 189
Problems 190
Case Problem 1: Usman Solutions 197
Appendix: Importing Delimited Files into R
Appendix: Working with Records in R
Appendix: Working with Fields in R
Appendix: Unstacking and Stacking Data in R
Chapter 5 Probability: An Introduction to Modeling

Uncertainty 199
5.1 Events and Probabilities 201
5.2 Some Basic Relationships of Probability 202
Complement of an Event 202
Addition Law 203
5.3 Conditional Probability 205
Independent Events 210
Multiplication Law 210
Bayes’ Theorem 211
5.4 Random Variables 213
Discrete Random Variables 213
Continuous Random Variables 214
5.5 Discrete Probability Distributions 215
Custom Discrete Probability Distribution 215
Expected Value and Variance 217
Discrete Uniform Probability Distribution 220
Binomial Probability Distribution 221
Poisson Probability Distribution 224
5.6 Continuous Probability Distributions 227
Uniform Probability Distribution 227
Triangular Probability Distribution 229
Normal Probability Distribution 231
Exponential Probability Distribution 236
Summary 240
Glossary 240
Problems 242
Case Problem 1: Hamilton County Judges 254
Case Problem 2: McNeil’s Auto Mall 255
Case Problem 3: Gebhardt Electronics 256
Contents ix

Appendix: Discrete Probability Distributions with R
Appendix: Continuous Probability Distributions with R
Chapter 6 Descriptive Data Mining 257

6.1 Dimension Reduction 259
Geometric Interpretation of Principal Component
Analysis 259
Summarizing Protein Consumption for Maillard
Riposte 262
6.2 Cluster Analysis 266
Measuring Distance Between Observations Consisting
of Quantitative Variables 267
Measuring Distance Between Observations Consisting
of Categorical Variables 269
k-Means Clustering 271
Hierarchical Clustering and Measuring Dissimilarity
Between Clusters 275
Hierarchical Clustering versus k-Means Clustering 283
6.3 Association Rules 284
Evaluating Association Rules 286
6.4 Text Mining 287
Voice of the Customer at Triad Airlines 288
Preprocessing Text Data for Analysis 289
Movie Reviews 290
Computing Dissimilarity Between Documents 293
Word Clouds 294
Summary 295
Glossary 296
Problems 298
Case Problem 1: Big Ten Expansion 315
Case Problem 2: Know Thy Customer 316
Appendix: Principal Component Analysis with R
Appendix: k-Means Clustering with R
Appendix: Hierarchical Clustering with R
Appendix: Association Rules with R
Appendix: Text Mining with R
Appendix: Principal Component Analysis with
Orange
Appendix: k-Means Clustering with Orange
Appendix: Hierarchical Clustering with Orange
Appendix: Association Rules with Orange
Appendix: Text Mining with Orange
x Contents
Chapter 7 Statistical Inference 319

7.1 Selecting a Sample 322
Sampling from a Finite Population 322
Sampling from an Infinite Population 323
7.2 Point Estimation 326
Practical Advice 328
7.3 Sampling Distributions 328
Sampling Distribution of − x 331
Sampling Distribution of − p 336
7.4 Interval Estimation 339
Interval Estimation of the Population Mean 339
Interval Estimation of the Population
Proportion 346
7.5 Hypothesis Tests 349
Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses 349
Type I and Type II Errors 352
Hypothesis Test of the Population Mean 353
Hypothesis Test of the Population Proportion 364
7.6 Big Data, Statistical Inference, and Practical
Significance 367
Sampling Error 367
Nonsampling Error 368
Big Data 369
Understanding What Big Data Is 370
Big Data and Sampling Error 371
Big Data and the Precision of Confidence Intervals 372
Implications of Big Data for Confidence Intervals 373
Big Data, Hypothesis Testing, and p Values 374
Implications of Big Data in Hypothesis Testing 376
Summary 376
Glossary 377
Problems 380
Case Problem 1: Young Professional Magazine 390
Case Problem 2: Quality Associates, Inc. 391
Appendix: Random Sampling with R
Appendix: Interval Estimation with R
Appendix: Hypothesis Testing with R
Chapter 8 Linear Regression 393

8.1 Simple Linear Regression Model 395
Estimated Simple Linear Regression Equation 395
8.2 Least Squares Method 397
Least Squares Estimates of the Simple Linear
Regression Parameters 399
Contents xi
Using Excel’s Chart Tools to Compute the Estimated

Simple Linear Regression Equation 401
8.3 Assessing the Fit of the Simple Linear Regression
Model 403
The Sums of Squares 403
The Coefficient of Determination 405
Using Excel’s Chart Tools to Compute the Coefficient
of Determination 406
8.4 The Multiple Linear Regression Model 407
Estimated Multiple Linear Regression Equation 407
Least Squares Method and Multiple Linear Regression 408
Butler Trucking Company and Multiple Linear Regression 408
Using Excel’s Regression Tool to Develop the Estimated
Multiple Linear Regression Equation 409
8.5 Inference and Linear Regression 412
Conditions Necessary for Valid Inference in the Least
Squares Linear Regression Model 413
Testing Individual Linear Regression Parameters 417
Addressing Nonsignificant Independent Variables 420
Multicollinearity 421
8.6 Categorical Independent Variables 424
Butler Trucking Company and Rush Hour 424
Interpreting the Parameters 426
More Complex Categorical Variables 427
8.7 Modeling Nonlinear Relationships 429
Quadratic Regression Models 430
Piecewise Linear Regression Models 434
Interaction Between Independent Variables 436
8.8 Model Fitting 441
Variable Selection Procedures 441
Overfitting 442
8.9 Big Data and Linear Regression 443
Inference and Very Large Samples 443
Model Selection 446
8.10 Prediction with Linear Regression 447
Summary 450
Glossary 450
Problems 452
Case Problem 1: Alumni Giving 466
Case Problem 2: Consumer Research, Inc. 468
Case Problem 3: Predicting Winnings for NASCAR Drivers 469
Appendix: Simple Linear Regression with R
Appendix: Multiple Linear Regression with R
Appendix: Linear Regression Variable Selection Procedures with R
xii Contents
Chapter 9 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting 471

9.1 Time Series Patterns 474
Horizontal Pattern 474
Trend Pattern 476
Seasonal Pattern 477
Trend and Seasonal Pattern 478
Cyclical Pattern 481
Identifying Time Series Patterns 481
9.2 Forecast Accuracy 481
9.3 Moving Averages and Exponential Smoothing 485
Moving Averages 486
Exponential Smoothing 490
9.4 Using Linear Regression Analysis for Forecasting 494
Linear Trend Projection 494
Seasonality Without Trend 496
Seasonality with Trend 497
Using Linear Regression Analysis as a Causal Forecasting
Method 500
Combining Causal Variables with Trend and
Seasonality Effects 503
Considerations in Using Linear Regression in
Forecasting 504
9.5 Determining the Best Forecasting Model to Use 504
Summary 505
Glossary 505
Problems 506
Case Problem 1: Forecasting Food and Beverage Sales 515
Case Problem 2: Forecasting Lost Sales 515
Appendix 9.1: Using the Excel Forecast Sheet 517
Appendix: Forecasting with R
Chapter 10 Predictive Data Mining: Regression Tasks 523

10.1 Regression Performance Measures 524
10.2 Data Sampling, Preparation, and Partitioning 526
Static Holdout Method 526
k-Fold Cross-Validation 530
10.3 k-Nearest Neighbors Regression 535
10.4 Regression Trees 538
Constructing a Regression Tree 538
Generating Predictions with a Regression Tree 541
Ensemble Methods 543
10.5 Neural Network Regression 548
Structure of a Neural Network 548
How a Neural Network Learns 552
Contents xiii
10.6 Feature Selection 555

Wrapper Methods 556
Filter Methods 556
Embedded Methods 557
Summary 558
Glossary 558
Problems 560
Case Problem: Housing Bubble 568
Appendix: k-Nearest Neighbors Regression with R
Appendix: Individual Regression Trees with R
Appendix: Random Forests of Regression Trees with R
Appendix: Neural Network Regression with R
Appendix: Regularized Linear Regression with R
Appendix: k-Nearest Neighbors Regression with Orange
Appendix: Individual Regression Trees with Orange
Appendix: Random Forests of Regression Trees with Orange
Appendix: Neural Network Regression with Orange
Appendix: Regularized Linear Regression with Orange
Chapter 11 Predictive Data Mining: Classification Tasks 571

11.1 Data Sampling, Preparation, and Partitioning 573
Static Holdout Method 573
k-Fold Cross-Validation 574
Class Imbalanced Data 574
11.2 Performance Measures for Binary Classification 576
11.3 Classification with Logistic Regression 582
11.4 k-Nearest Neighbors Classification 587
11.5 Classification Trees 591
Constructing a Classification Tree 591
Generating Predictions with a Classification Tree 593
Ensemble Methods 594
11.6 Neural Network Classification 600
Structure of a Neural Network 601
How a Neural Network Learns 605
11.7 Feature Selection 609
Wrapper Methods 609
Filter Methods 610
Embedded Methods 610
Summary 612
Glossary 612
Problems 615
Case Problem: Grey Code Corporation 630
xiv Contents

Appendix: Classification via Logistic Regression with R
Appendix: k-Nearest Neighbors Classification with R
Appendix: Individual Classification Trees with R
Appendix: Random Forests of Classification Trees with R
Appendix: Neural Network Classification with R
Appendix: Classification via Logistic Regression with Orange
Appendix: k-Nearest Neighbors Classification with Orange
Appendix: Individual Classification Trees with Orange
Appendix: Random Forests of Classification Trees with Orange
Appendix: Neural Network Classification with Orange
Chapter 12 Spreadsheet Models 633

12.1 Building Good Spreadsheet Models 635
Influence Diagrams 635
Building a Mathematical Model 635
Spreadsheet Design and Implementing the Model in a
Spreadsheet 637
12.2 What-If Analysis 640
Data Tables 640
Goal Seek 642
Scenario Manager 644
12.3 Some Useful Excel Functions for Modeling 649
SUM and SUMPRODUCT 650
IF and COUNTIF 651
XLOOKUP 654
12.4 Auditing Spreadsheet Models 656
Trace Precedents and Dependents 656
Show Formulas 656
Evaluate Formulas 658
Error Checking 658
Watch Window 659
12.5 Predictive and Prescriptive Spreadsheet Models 660
Summary 661
Glossary 661
Problems 662
Case Problem: Retirement Plan 670
Chapter 13 Monte Carlo Simulation 671

13.1 Risk Analysis for Sanotronics LLC 673
Base-Case Scenario 673
Worst-Case Scenario 674
Best-Case Scenario 674
Sanotronics Spreadsheet Model 674
Contents xv
Use of Probability Distributions to Represent Random Variables 676

Generating Values for Random Variables with Excel 677
Executing Simulation Trials with Excel 681
Measuring and Analyzing Simulation Output 682
13.2 Inventory Policy Analysis for Promus Corp 686
Spreadsheet Model for Promus 687
Generating Values for Promus Corp’s Demand 688
Executing Simulation Trials and Analyzing Output 691
13.3 Simulation Modeling for Land Shark Inc. 693
Spreadsheet Model for Land Shark 694
Generating Values for Land Shark’s Random Variables 696
Executing Simulation Trials and Analyzing Output 698
Generating Bid Amounts with Fitted Distributions 700
13.4 Simulation with Dependent Random Variables 709
Spreadsheet Model for Press Teag Worldwide 709
13.5 Simulation Considerations 714
Verification and Validation 714
Advantages and Disadvantages of Using Simulation 714
Summary 715
Summary of Steps for Conducting a Simulation Analysis 715
Glossary 716
Problems 717
Case Problem 1: Four Corners 731
Case Problem 2: Ginsberg’s Jewelry Snowfall Promotion 732
Appendix 13.1: Common Probability Distributions
for Simulation 734
Chapter 14 Linear Optimization Models 743

14.1 A Simple Maximization Problem 745
Problem Formulation 746
Mathematical Model for the Par, Inc. Problem 748
14.2 Solving the Par, Inc. Problem 749
The Geometry of the Par, Inc. Problem 749
Solving Linear Programs with Excel Solver 751
14.3 A Simple Minimization Problem 755
Problem Formulation 755
Solution for the M&D Chemicals Problem 755
14.4 Special Cases of Linear Program Outcomes 757
Alternative Optimal Solutions 758
Infeasibility 759
Unbounded 760
14.5 Sensitivity Analysis 762
Interpreting Excel Solver Sensitivity Report 762
14.6 General Linear Programming Notation and More
Examples 764
Investment Portfolio Selection 765
xvi Contents
Transportation Planning 768

Maximizing Banner Ad Revenue 772
Assigning Project Leaders to Clients 776
Diet Planning 779
14.7 Generating an Alternative Optimal Solution
for a Linear Program 782
Summary 783
Glossary 784
Problems 785
Case Problem1: Investment Strategy 801
Case Problem 2: Solutions Plus 802
Appendix: Linear Programming with R
Chapter 15 Integer Linear Optimization Models 805

15.1 Types of Integer Linear Optimization Models 806
15.2 Eastborne Realty, an Example of Integer Optimization 807
The Geometry of Linear All-Integer Optimization 808
15.3 Solving Integer Optimization Problems with Excel Solver 810
A Cautionary Note About Sensitivity Analysis 813
15.4 Applications Involving Binary Variables 815
Capital Budgeting 815
Fixed Cost 816
Bank Location 820
Product Design and Market Share Optimization 822
15.5 Modeling Flexibility Provided by Binary Variables 825
Multiple-Choice and Mutually Exclusive Constraints 825
k Out of n Alternatives Constraint 826
Conditional and Corequisite Constraints 826
15.6 Generating Alternatives in Binary Optimization 827
Summary 829
Glossary 830
Problems 830
Case Problem 1: Applecore Children’s Clothing 845
Case Problem 2: Yeager National Bank 847
Appendix: Integer Programming with R
Chapter 16 Nonlinear Optimization Models 849

16.1 A Production Application: Par, Inc. Revisited 850
An Unconstrained Problem 850
A Constrained Problem 851
Contents xvii
Solving Nonlinear Optimization Models Using Excel

Solver 853
Sensitivity Analysis and Shadow Prices in Nonlinear
Models 855
16.2 Local and Global Optima 856
Overcoming Local Optima with Excel Solver 858
16.3 A Location Problem 860
16.4 Markowitz Portfolio Model 861
16.5 Adoption of a New Product: The Bass Forecasting
Model 866
16.6 Heuristic Optimization Using Excel’s Evolutionary
Method 869
Summary 877
Glossary 877
Problems 878
Case Problem: Portfolio Optimization with Transaction
Costs 889
Appendix: Nonlinear Programming with R
Chapter 17 Decision Analysis 893

17.1 Problem Formulation 895
Payoff Tables 896
Decision Trees 896
17.2 Decision Analysis Without Probabilities 897
Optimistic Approach 897
Conservative Approach 898
Minimax Regret Approach 898
17.3 Decision Analysis with Probabilities 900
Expected Value Approach 900
Risk Analysis 902
Sensitivity Analysis 903
17.4 Decision Analysis with Sample Information 904
Expected Value of Sample Information 909
Expected Value of Perfect Information 909
17.5 Computing Branch Probabilities with Bayes’ Theorem 910
17.6 Utility Theory 913
Utility and Decision Analysis 914
Utility Functions 918
Exponential Utility Function 921
Summary 923
Glossary 923
Problems 925
xviii Contents
Case Problem 1: Property Purchase Strategy 939

Case Problem 2: Semiconductor Fabrication at Axeon Labs 941
Multi-Chapter Case Problems

Capital State University Game-Day Magazines 943
Hanover Inc. 945
Appendix A Basics of Excel 947
Appendix B Database Basics with Microsoft Access 959
Appendix C Solutions to Even-Numbered Problems
(Cengage eBook)
Appendix D Microsoft Excel Online and Tools for Statistical Analysis
(Cengage eBook)
References Available in the Cengage eBook

Index 997
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better grace. But it was a new experience for her to have
her hair pulled without the least warning, her ears tickled
with a straw, or to find herself tripped up by a sly foot just
as she started for a run, whilst her tormentor seemed to
derive the utmost amusement from seeing the annoyance
he created.
This form of provocation was more annoying to Beryl than it

would have been to many girls, because, as we have seen,
she was inclined to esteem herself a person of considerable
importance. Even as a little child she had displayed much
personal dignity. Percy saw that she was what he called "a
conceited little mortal," and he found more delight in
tormenting her than in teasing Coral, who had less pride to
be kindled into wrath.
Though she was often betrayed into bursts of passionate

indignation, Beryl really tried to keep her temper under
Percy's constant exasperation. She avoided his company as
much as possible; but Percy, suspecting this, often thrust
himself upon her in the most unexpected and unwelcome
manner. Beryl's greatest comfort was the thought that this
state of things could not last for ever. Percy's visit must
come to an end some day.
At last her longing for his departure seemed about to be

gratified. One day, towards the close of the third week of his
stay, she heard him name the following Monday as the day
of his return to town. Beryl was so pleased to hear this that
she looked across the table at Coral with a beaming smile of
congratulation.
Percy caught the look. "So you are pleased that I am going
away," he said, looking at Beryl.
Beryl coloured and made no answer.

"Now, Beryl," said her aunt sharply, "don't behave in that
absurd way. Say at once that you are sorry Percy is going to
leave us."
But Beryl was too truthful to say that she was sorry, when
she was feeling very glad. She remained silent.
"Oh, very well," said Percy carelessly; "I'm sorry my

company is so unpleasant to you, for I was going to ask Mr.
Hollys to bring you with him the next time he comes to
town. But I dare say you would rather not stay at my
mother's house, as you dislike me so much. You could not
avoid seeing me sometimes whilst you were there."
This remark made Beryl uncomfortable. She had a great

longing to go to London, and had often asked her father to
take her with him when he went. There was nothing she
would like better than a visit to town. But the prospect of
staying at Mrs. Everard's was not altogether alluring. If
Percy would be likely to tease her there, as he had teased
her during the last few weeks, she would certainly prefer to
remain at Egloshayle. She judged it better to preserve a
strict neutrality on the subject, and said not a word, though
Percy's suggestion had stirred new longings.
"It is very kind of your mother to be willing to have her,"

observed Miss Hollys; "but I am afraid she would repent of
her kindness when she found what a troublesome charge
Beryl is."
"Beryl must get a little more knowledge before she goes to

London; do you not think so, Miss Burton?" observed Mr.
Hollys. "It will not do to display her ignorance there."
Much disconcerted at finding herself thus made the subject

of conversation, Beryl hastily finished her breakfast and
escaped from the room as soon as possible.
Beryl's spirits rose as Monday drew near. There was no
reason why her birthday party should not be given at the
close of that week, if her father would give his consent, for
already many of the guests had gone, and the last would
have left by then.
She watched for an opportunity of speaking to her father,

and managed to secure his company as they walked to
church on Sunday morning; Miss Burton aiding her by
monopolising Percy's attention, and keeping him by her side
all the way.
"That will be rather an odd sort of birthday party, Beryl,"

said Mr. Hollys, when she had explained her scheme to him.
"Shall you know what to do with such visitors?"
"Oh yes, papa, Miss Burton knows how to manage

everything, and we have thought of all sorts of ways of
amusing the children."
"Then Miss Burton is ready to second your wishes; she

approves of this wild idea?"
"Of course, papa. Why, I believe she was the one who first
thought of it," said Beryl. "Please don't call it a wild idea; I
do so want you to say 'Yes.'"
Mr. Hollys did not hesitate long. Like many kindhearted,

easy-tempered men, he enjoyed giving pleasure to others,
when it could be done without inconvenience to himself. He
was one, moreover, who liked to be popular with the people
amongst whom he dwelt, and he knew that Beryl's
entertainment would highly please the parents of the
children she invited.
"Well, Beryl, I dare say it can be managed," he said. "I

must talk it over with Miss Burton, and hear how she
intends to arrange the affair."
"Oh, thank you, papa, I am so glad!" exclaimed Beryl,

feeling sure that she had gained his consent. "Do you think
we might fix it for Friday? Every one will have gone by
then."
"Yes, I should think Friday will suit," said her father; "but is
it not a pity you did not plan it before Percy left us? He
could have helped you finely."
"I would not have had the party whilst he was here for the
world," said Beryl vehemently. "He would have spoiled
everything. I don't want him to know anything about it. You
won't tell him, will you, papa?"
"Certainly not, if you would rather he did not know," said

Mr. Hollys, laughing to see the indignant glances Beryl cast
at the back of the tall, slim youth who was walking some
yards in front. "But how is it you dislike Percy so much,
Beryl? He is very kind to you."
"Kind!" retorted Beryl, with a toss of the head, which made

her father laugh again. "I don't call him kind. I'm so glad he
is going to-morrow. But about Friday, papa. If you and Miss
Burton think Friday will do, Coral and I might go and ask
the children this afternoon. They ought to know soon."
"Oh yes; you had better give them a long invitation, for fear
they should make engagements," said her father satirically.
Beryl saw the absurdity of this remark, and laughed

heartily. By this time they were almost at the door of the
church, and hearing her laugh, Percy turned round to
discover the source of her merriment.
"What were you laughing at, little Duchess?" he asked,
noting Beryl's radiant look as she came up to him.
"Nothing," she replied coldly, her indignation excited afresh

by the ridiculous title which Percy chose to give her.
"Only idiots laugh at nothing," he returned.
"Then you mean to say that I am an idiot!" she said,

flashing an angry glance at him.
"Not at all; for I cannot believe that you were laughing at

nothing," he replied.
"Anyhow, I am not going to tell you what I was laughing

at," said Beryl.
"Then you own you were laughing at something, and what

you said first was not true," returned Percy.
To Beryl's vexation it was impossible to continue longer this

amiable sparring, as they were about to enter the church,
so Percy had the last word, and his triumphant, mischievous
look, as he seated himself opposite to Beryl in the large
square pew, showed how he appreciated the advantage he
had gained.
Mr. Hollys had some talk with Miss Burton as they walked
home from church. She told him her plans for the children's
party, and he became quite interested in them, and had not
the least objection to make.
To Beryl's delight, it was decided that the fishermen's

children should be invited for the following Friday. That
afternoon she went with Coral down to the beach, where
many of their little scholars were playing, and as the
children gathered eagerly about her, she told them of the
treat in store for them, and made them all promise to come
to her home on Friday afternoon. The children could not
readily express their pleasure; but their surprised, delighted
looks showed how pleased they were.
Leaving the children to talk freely about the grand idea of

taking tea with the little ladies at Egloshayle House, Coral
and Beryl strolled along the beach in the shadow of the
over-hanging cliffs.
"How surprised they looked," said Coral, "and I am sure

they were very glad."
"Of course they were," returned Beryl; "it will be delightful.

Oh, isn't it nice to think that by this time to-morrow that
horrid Percy will have left us, and we shall have no fear of
his interfering to spoil everything. I'm longing to see him
drive away."
Beryl little thought that "that horrid Percy" was even then
within sound of her voice. They were passing a mass of
rocks which shelved away from the side of the cliff, and as
Beryl ended, Coral exclaimed, "Hush! Didn't you hear some
one call?"
As they waited in silence for a few moments, their ears

caught the sound of a faint "Hallo!" which seemed to come
from behind one of the rocks.
"What's the matter? Who's there?" called Beryl, as she

advanced towards the spot whence the sound came.
"Come here, Beryl," said the voice in reply.
"I believe it's that horrid boy," said Beryl in a tone of

annoyance. "And yet it does not sound quite like his voice. I
dare say it's some stupid trick of his."
Advancing cautiously round the rock, they soon saw that
Beryl was not mistaken in imagining that the voice was
Percy's. But he had not the appearance of one playing a
trick. He was lying on the stones beneath the cliff, his
clothes strewn with dust and fragments of rock, and his face
utterly colourless.
"Oh, what is the matter?" exclaimed Beryl. "Have you

fallen?"
"Yes, I was trying to climb the cliff, and the path gave way
beneath me," said Percy faintly. "Give me your arm, will
you, Beryl, and I will try to raise myself?"
Beryl willingly gave him all the help she could, and he
dragged himself up into a sitting posture, but turned so sick
and faint in consequence, that he was obliged to lean
against the child for support. All the tenderness of Beryl's
nature came out now. She forgot that it was her tormentor
who was brought thus low. Kneeling by his side, she made
Percy lean his head upon her shoulder, whilst she gently
wiped the perspiration from his forehead.
"Are you in pain?" she asked.
"Yes, my foot hurts me awfully. The rock fell on it. I don't

know how I shall get home."
"Coral, you must run home as fast as possible and tell

papa," said Beryl, turning to Coral, who stood looking on in
silence, her little face white with fear, and tears of distress
in her eyes.
Coral ran off without a word. In a few minutes Percy's

faintness began to pass away, and he could sit up without
Beryl's support. But he was evidently in intense pain.
"Can I do anything to make the pain better?" asked Beryl.
"Do you think you could get my boot off?" he said. "It hurts
me dreadfully."
It was no easy matter to remove the boot from the swollen

foot on which it pressed so cruelly, but Beryl set to work,
not unskilfully, and with the help of Percy's penknife
managed to release the injured part. But, careful though
she was, this could not be done without giving more pain,
and though Percy bore it bravely, he several times turned so
white that Beryl feared he was going to faint.
"I am so sorry for you," she said gently. "I wish they would
come. It seems so long to wait, doesn't it?"
"Yes, it seems an age; but we must try to bear it," said

Percy, setting his teeth together to keep back a groan. "You
are a good little woman, Beryl, to wait with me so patiently.
I am very much obliged to you."
"As if I should think of leaving you!" said Beryl.
She was so full of pity for him that she began to think that
he was really rather nice after all, and she had made a
mistake in disliking him so much. She would willingly have
kept watch beside him for a longer time, but she was very
glad for his sake when at length she heard the sound of
steps coming quickly across the shingles.
CHAPTER XIX
HOW BERYL'S TORMENTOR BECAME HER FRIEND
WITH the united help of Mr. Hollys and Andrew, Percy was
at last able to get back to the house; but not without much
suffering. Every movement gave him pain, and though he
limped along bravely, and tried to bear up like a man, his
strength was almost gone by the time they reached home.
Beryl's heart grew tender with pity as she watched him. Her
feelings towards Percy had been undergoing a rapid change
within the last hour. She felt so sorry, that for the time she
quite forgot how he had teased and plagued her since he
came to Egloshayle.
The fortitude with which he endured his pain seemed to

Beryl quite heroic. She was conscious only of
compassionate admiration as she lingered by his side during
the long half-hour whilst they awaited the coming of the
doctor. There were actually tears in her eyes as she stood
there, and it was only by exercising strong self-control that
she could keep from crying aloud.
She did not think that Percy saw her tears, but he did.
At last the doctor came, and then Beryl was banished from
the dining-room where Percy lay, and bidden to keep herself
out of the way, like a good child. But, like many other
children, she had a great objection to keeping out of the
way, "like a good child," and she and Coral hung about the
hall, and finally took up a position at the top of the
staircase, whence they could watch the dining-room door,
and observe and question all who passed in or out of it.
It was exciting to see how many things the servants handed

in at that door. Hot and cold water, sponges, towels, linen-
rags, Eau de Cologne, a scent bottle, cotton-wool, plaster,
scissors, such were the articles called for from time to time,
and supplied as quickly as possible. It was generally Miss
Burton who opened the door, and took them in.
She seemed to be affording active help in this emergency.
Miss Hollys' nerves made her useless at such a time. All she
could now do was to shut herself up in the drawing-room,
and sob hysterically.
"I wish they had let me stay in the room to help," remarked
Beryl, in rather an injured tone.
"Could you have helped?" asked Coral. "Wouldn't it have

made you feel bad? His foot was bleeding dreadfully when
he came in. You can see the marks now on the doorstep."
"Yes, I know," said Beryl; "there was a cut just above his
boot. I tied my handkerchief round it. Aunt Cecilia said it
made her feel faint to see the blood; but I should not be
like that. What would be the good? If every one felt like
that, there would be no doctors, I should think. Miss Burton
does not mind it, you see."
"Do you think he will be able to go to London to-morrow?"

asked Coral.
"I am afraid not," said Beryl, suddenly remembering how

she had counted on his departure.
"You don't think he will stay till Friday?" asked Coral

anxiously. "It will be tiresome if we have to give up the
birthday party."
"Yes; I've just thought of that," said Beryl, looking grave; "I
can't tell at all how it will be. I shall be vexed if we have to
give it up. And we have told the children about it—oh dear!"
Beryl drew a deep sigh, and was silent for a few moments.
"After all, Coral," she added presently, in a softer voice, "it

is worse for Percy than for us. I am sure he must be in
dreadful pain. And he will be sorry not to go to-morrow, for
his school begins on Tuesday, and I heard him say that he
likes to be there on the first day."
It seemed to the children, as they waited anxiously on the

staircase, that the doctor was a very long time attending to
Percy. But at last they saw Mr. Hollys come out of the
dining-room, followed by the medical man. The two
gentlemen went into the library for a little private talk, and
Beryl, judging that operations were suspended for a time,
crept quietly downstairs to inquire into Percy's condition.
She was pleased to learn that he was in less pain, and that
the doctor hoped that his injuries were not serious. After
hearing this news, Beryl consented to take her tea in the
nursery, though before she had decidedly negatived Lucy's
suggestion that she must be feeling hungry and faint.
Percy passed a night of pain, and was far from being in

condition for a journey on the following day. But happily no
bones were broken, and though his foot was badly bruised
and cut, and his ankle slightly sprained, there seemed no
cause for great anxiety concerning him. Miss Burton was his
careful nurse, and shoved great skill in dressing and
bandaging his wounded foot. He kept in his room all day.
Beryl continued to feel the deepest interest in his sad case,
and harassed her governess with innumerable questions
regarding him at every opportunity.
Beryl did not suppose for a moment that she should be

allowed to see Percy, and it was a great surprise to her
when Miss Burton said that evening, "Beryl, Percy says that
he would like to see you, if you will go into his room for a
little while."
"Me, Miss Burton?" she exclaimed in surprise. "Are you

quite sure he said he should like to see me?"
"Yes, indeed, I have made no mistake," said Miss Burton;

"why do you ask? Do you not wish to see him?"
Beryl scarcely knew whether she wished it or not. It seemed

to her at that moment as if there were two Percys—the
Percy who had been her tormentor and plague, and the
Percy who had borne his pain with such courage, and
thanked her so gratefully for the help she had given him.
She felt rather shy of going into the presence of the Percy
whose pale, suffering face had haunted her, ever since she
watched him lying still and exhausted on the sofa in the
dining-room.
"Yes, I should like to see him," she said, in reply to her

governess; but still she lingered, till Miss Burton, with a
view of relieving her embarrassment, said, "Stay, I will give
you some grapes to take to him. He has been complaining
of thirst all the afternoon."
Bearing a beautiful cluster of purple grapes, Beryl hastened

upstairs, and gently rapped at Percy's door.
"Come in," shouted Percy, in a voice high and tremulous.
Beryl went in. Percy was lying on a low couch by the

window, clad in a dressing-gown of Mr. Hollys, which fell in
loose folds over his long, slight figure. The injured limb,
swathed in bandages, was raised on a pillow.
Percy looked far more like his own self than when Beryl last
saw him; but his face was still very pale, and there were
dark lines beneath his eyes, telling of the pain he had
suffered, and still had to bear, though in a less degree.
"Oh, it is the Duchess!" he exclaimed, as Beryl appeared,

"and bringing me grapes too! The very thing I should have
named, if I had been asked to mention the fruit most to my
desire at this moment. It is very good of your Grace, I am
sure."
"How do you feel now? Is the pain any better?" asked Beryl,
looking at him with grave anxiety, and quite forgetting to be
angry with him for calling her "the Duchess."
"Yes, it is better than it was, but I feel rather seedy," said

Percy, shaking back the long loose locks that were falling
over his forehead. "This is a pretty go, isn't it? It's a
confounded bore to think that I can't get to London to-day!
I'm awfully vexed not to be at school on the first day. I shall
get put down in my form. And you're sorry not to get rid of
me to-day, aren't you?"
"No, I am not sorry," said Beryl, without a moment's

hesitation, though her cheeks grew red as she spoke.
"Don't tell polite fibs; it's not like you to do that," said
Percy. "I know you looked as pleased as Punch the other
day when I said that I should go home on Monday."
"Yes; but then—" began Beryl; but suddenly stopped, not

finding it easy to explain that her feelings towards him had
changed since that day.
"Do you mean that you have changed your mind since
then?" asked Percy, looking at her curiously. "Do you know,
Beryl, I believe you like me better than you think? I know I
saw your eyes near brimming over last night when I was in
such pain."
"Nonsense," said Beryl; "don't be absurd!"
"There is nothing absurd in mentioning a fact that passed

under my own observation," said Percy calmly. "Come, you
can't deny that you were inclined to cry over this miserable
foot of mine."
Beryl was silent for a few moments, and Percy watched her
with a smile which was not satirical.
"Won't you eat your grapes?" said Beryl suddenly, feeling

that the silence had lasted quite long enough.
"Thanks. They are certainly too good to be only looked at,"

said Percy; "but you must help me;" and he pulled off a fine
bunch and handed it to her.
"Oh no," said Beryl, shrinking back. "I don't want any; they
are all for you."
"But I don't want them all," said Percy decidedly; "if you
won't have any, I won't either, so you may just carry them
down again."
"That is silly," remonstrated Beryl; "because you are ill, and

want them more than I do."
"No, I don't; you want them too," persisted Percy. "Come,

sit down here, and put the plate between us, and we'll see
who can eat the most."
There was no resisting Percy; he would have his own way.

Happily there was an abundant supply of grapes, and the
two were soon chatting in the most friendly way as they
enjoyed the fruit together.
"I say," said Percy presently, in a confidential tone; "what's
up for Friday?"
"Friday," faltered Beryl in surprise; "what do you mean?"
"Oh, you know," he returned, "you've planned something

for Friday. What is it—a picnic?"
"What makes you think there is anything planned for

Friday?" asked Beryl, anxious to discover how much he
knew. "Has any one told you?"
"No one save your Grace," he replied. "You should not talk
so loudly on the stairs, if you wish to keep your plans a
secret."
"Oh, what have you heard?" asked Beryl, thinking that

there was no keeping anything from this dreadful boy.
"Only you and Coral saying—'Do you think we can have it

on Friday, after all? Would it be better to put it off? Perhaps
it may rain next week.' From which I gathered that there
was some grand excitement planned for Friday, and when I
asked Miss Burton she did not deny that it was so; but only
referred me to you for further information. So now tell me,
what is it?"
"What ears you must have to hear that!" observed Beryl,

pouting a little in her vexation.
"Yes, my sense of hearing is by no means defective, I am

happy to say," said Percy complacently; "and now I am
waiting to hear what is the ticket for Friday."
"I don't think I shall tell you," returned Beryl.

"Now that is unkind," said Percy, "after all the pain I have
had, and the dreary time I have passed in this room to-day,
to think that you won't tell me a little news that might cheer
me."
"I don't fancy you will care for this news," said Beryl
relenting; "but I'll tell you, if you will promise not to laugh
at it."
"Not I; I'll keep as sober as a judge," replied Percy, pulling a

ridiculously long face; "now then, what is it?"
Whereupon Beryl began to explain her plans for a birthday

treat. Percy kept his word, and listened with the utmost
gravity. Not a smile crossed his face, though he made some
amusing comments, which set Beryl laughing. It was clear
that he was not inclined to ridicule the affair, as Beryl had
feared.
"I've got a splendid idea for Friday, Beryl," he said after a

time.
"Oh, what is it?" she asked eagerly.
"That's my secret," he said, "and I mean to keep it."
"But I told you my secret," said Beryl, in an injured tone.
"And I will tell you mine when the right time comes,"
returned Percy; "if only I can get well enough to hobble
about a little on Friday, you shall see what I will do."
"Oh, do tell me now," urged Beryl.
But Percy shook his head, and would not be persuaded.

Beryl had to go away with her curiosity unsatisfied, but yet
she felt convinced that Percy was a much nicer boy than she
had before imagined.
When Beryl told Coral how Percy had discovered their

secret, and repeated what he had said, her little sister
seemed very dismayed.
"Oh, Beryl!" she exclaimed. "He will do something dreadful,

and spoil everything; I know he will. Oh, I wish he would
not interfere."
"I don't think so," said Beryl decidedly. "I believe Percy
means to be kind and help us. Indeed, I am rather glad now
that he knows all about it."
"Why, Beryl, how can you?" exclaimed Coral in the greatest

surprise. "And you used to hate him so."
"No, I didn't," contradicted Beryl; "at least I ought not to

have. It is wicked to hate people, Coral."
But it is to be feared that Miss Beryl would not have been so

conscious of the sinfulness of hatred if she had not
discovered that there was something amiable in Percy
Everard's character.
CHAPTER XX
BERYL'S BIRTHDAY PARTY
PERCY'S bruised and sprained foot healed slowly, and the
doctor enjoined rest for many days to come. It was no small
trial to the active, restless youth to be thus kept a prisoner
in his room; but he bore the confinement with tolerable
patience. His injuries brought him much attention and
commiseration. Miss Burton continued his faithful nurse,
and dressed his wounds, and waited upon him with gentle
care and skill. Mr. Hollys showed the greatest solicitude for
his comfort, and even Miss Hollys made a daily visit to his
room to enquire how he felt, and whether there were
anything she could do for him. To the latter query, which
was merely formal, Percy always responded by a decided
negative. Once, by way of experiment, he offered to
unbandage his wounded limb for her inspection, whereupon
the lady hastily retreated, declaring that she should faint if
she saw so dreadful a sight.
Perhaps Percy found his chief consolation during the

monotonous course of these days in the visits which Coral
and Beryl paid him. The children's society seemed to amuse
him greatly, and he coaxed Miss Burton into shortening
their school hours, that he might see more of them. They
managed to play dominoes beside his couch, and he began
to initiate Beryl into the mysteries of backgammon; and
after declaring repeatedly that it was a stupid game, and
had no fun in it, she discovered its fascination, as she came
gradually to understand it.
With such diversions, the hours passed swiftly, and Friday

drew near—the day so eagerly anticipated—without Beryl's
gaining the least clue to the "splendid idea" which Percy was
determined to keep from her. It was very tantalising to be
thus in the dark regarding it. She was sure that Miss Burton
was in the secret, and she fancied that her father also
shared it.
Mr. Hollys received several large packages from Plymouth,
concerning the contents of which he refused to satisfy
Beryl's curiosity. She knew that these packages were
carried into Percy's room and unpacked there; and she
shrewdly guessed that they had some connection with her
birthday fête, as Percy chose to call it. But she could only
whisper her conjectures to Coral, and wait patiently for time
to reveal the mystery.
All Thursday the children were in the greatest excitement.

They deserted Percy, in their eagerness to watch the various
preparations for the grand event of the morrow, which were
going on in the household. Cook quite entered into the spirit
of the thing, and used her utmost skill in the making of
cakes and tarts for the children's treat. A delicious smell of
baking came from the kitchen, and the children, stealing
frequently through the baize door, were delighted by seeing
tins full of crisp, brown buns, or the most tempting of jam
tarts lifted out of the oven. The occasion called for a large
supply of such dainties, since general invitation had been
given to the village children, and all who could come would
be sure to avail themselves of it.
When they had seen what was doing in the kitchen, and
tasted some of the good things, in order to judge if they
were fit to set before their guests, Coral and Beryl would
wander out of doors to watch Andrew's operations. He was
making himself useful in various ways; they saw him hang a
fine swing in the empty barn at the back of the house, and
proceeded to test its soundness without loss of time. Then
they followed him about the garden, and gave him much
advice and assistance, with which he could easily have
dispensed, as he arranged tables and seats for the expected
guests.
"What shall we do if it rains?" exclaimed Coral, when they
had seen all the tables firmly set.
"Oh, it won't rain!" exclaimed Beryl.
And Andrew being a weather-wise man, was able to assure

them that there was little cause to fear rain for the next
forty-eight hours.
"Well, Duchess," exclaimed Percy, when the children came

to his room that evening to say "good-night"; "is everything
arranged to your satisfaction?"
"Oh yes," replied Beryl; "everything is perfect. Andrew has

made the most delightful swing in the barn, and cook has
made the most delicious cakes and tarts, and everything is
scrumptious. Isn't that the word you say?"
"Not at all the word for a duchess to use," said Percy

gravely.
"Well, I don't care if it's not. I'm not a duchess, and I hate
to be called so!" said Beryl. "Oh, I wish to-morrow would
make haste and come. I am sure I shall not be able to sleep
for thinking of it."
"I say, Beryl," said Percy, "what do you think your father
has been suggesting? He thinks I might be got downstairs
to-morrow, and lie in state on a sofa on the lawn, so as to
see something of the fun. What do you say to that?"
For a few moments Beryl did not know what to say. The
idea of Percy's watching and commenting upon all that went
on did not readily fall in with her preconceived notions of
the treat. She was silent.

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This form of provocation was more annoying to Beryl than it

Though she was often betrayed into bursts of passionate

At last her longing for his departure seemed about to be

Beryl coloured and made no answer.

"Oh, very well," said Percy carelessly; "I'm sorry my

This remark made Beryl uncomfortable. She had a great

"It is very kind of your mother to be willing to have her,"

"Beryl must get a little more knowledge before she goes to

Much disconcerted at finding herself thus made the subject

She watched for an opportunity of speaking to her father,

"That will be rather an odd sort of birthday party, Beryl,"

"Oh yes, papa, Miss Burton knows how to manage