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The British General Election of 2017 1st ed. Edition Philip Cowley full chapter instant download
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‘...THE BIBLE OF GENERAL ELECTIONS.’
— David Dimbleby
Praise for previous editions
‘If you want real insight into the last election, Kavanagh and Cowley look
like they’re on the money’ —London Evening Standard
‘… a riveting read … this is easily the best political book of the year’
—PoliticalBetting.com
‘The studies have become by now almost part of our democratic fabric’
—The Listener
This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature
Switzerland AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Preface
v
vi PREFACE
This was not true this time. Once we move beyond the merely descrip-
tive—that is, the Conservatives had a huge opinion poll lead, which they
proceeded to lose—there is little consensus about what happened in the
2017 general election or, at least, why it happened. Perhaps most striking
of all, there is no intra-party consensus on these questions. There are at
least two versions of the Labour campaign, both passionately believed,
along with a similar number of views of the Conservative campaign.
During interviews, the phrases used by insiders about supposed comrades
or colleagues were often much cruder, and more industrial, than those
about their supposed opponents.
Much remains contested. For example, below, we report the claim that
at various points during his leadership, Jeremy Corbyn ‘wobbled’. Any
wobbles would have been understandable. Leadership was not a position
he had ever expected to hold. He had faced repeated—and often brutal—
criticism. (Which of us, under similar conditions, would not have won-
dered whether this was the game for us?) Some of these accounts have
Corbyn in tears, with members of his family telling him that it is not worth
it, while some of his aides tell him that he must hang on for the good of
the left. Yet members of his key team vehemently deny that any of this ever
happened. Something similar applies to Theresa May on the night of the
election, once the result of the election became clear. Did she wobble?
Again, it would be understandable. She had called an election, run on a
hugely personalised campaign, in which she had been front and centre,
and squandered an enormous opinion poll lead. (Which of us, under simi-
lar conditions, would not have considered throwing in the towel?) There
are multiple claims that she came close to resigning on the night of the
election—although these claims vary hugely depending on who is recount-
ing them—but again the official line remains that she did not do so. Similar
differences, more trivial perhaps but just as frustrating for those attempt-
ing to chronicle the contest, attach to many key moments in the
campaign.
As will become clear, in what follows, the snap nature of the contest
presented problems for all of the parties (ironically, perhaps, the
Conservatives most of all) but it also made life harder for us as authors.
Normally with a book like this, much of the preparation—drafting, data
collection, background interviews and so on—is carried out in the run-up
to the election. After the Prime Minister’s shock announcement on 18
April 2017, we started with a blank page. The same goes for our contribu-
tors, all of whom did not expect to be spending much of 2017 writing
PREFACE
vii
about a general election. We owe them a huge debt for meeting demanding
deadlines and repeated editorial requests. In addition to writing Appendix
1, John Curtice, Stephen Fisher, Robert Ford and Patrick English also sup-
plied the data from which Appendix 2 has been compiled.
Yet despite all the hard work, it was a fascinating election to write about.
Both the decision to call the 2017 election and the eventual outcome can
fairly be described as surprises, but then they were merely the latest sur-
prises to hit British politics. Since the 2015 contest (the result of which
was itself a surprise), Jeremy Corbyn became Labour leader, Britain voted
to leave the European Union, the Prime Minister resigned after a year in
office as head of a majority government, and a year later his successor—
having repeatedly declared she would not do so—called another general
election in search of a bigger majority of seats, which she then failed to
achieve, despite seemingly being on course for a landslide.
The dramatis personae of the 2017 election were very different from
those of 2015. In our last volume, Jeremy Corbyn did not feature—other
than, at the end of the book, to note his election as Labour leader. John
McDonnell did not feature at all. The pair might, perhaps, have been
worth a mention for their promise to make life difficult for an incoming
Miliband government from the backbenches. But this all seemed too triv-
ial, the pair too far removed from power. Yet within months, they were
transforming the Labour Party. Even Theresa May received only a handful
of passing mentions in the 2015 volume; she may have been Home
Secretary, but when it came to the election, she was a bit player at most.
Corbyn’s elevation to the Labour leadership tested many well-
established assumptions about British political parties. Could a party in
Parliament have a leader who had so little support among his MPs? Could
a party thrive when there was such a gap between the views of the mass
membership and its MPs? Could a leader survive a decisive vote of no
confidence by his colleagues? And, when the election was called, could a
party do well in a general election fighting on a left-of-centre manifesto?
The answers were more positive than many would have thought.
In writing this book, we were helped, as always, by the very generous
support of many of the participants. We spoke to hundreds of people from
the different parties and we are very grateful for the time they gave us. We
deliberately do not list them here, as many spoke to us on the condition of
strict confidentiality, but we hope they will recognise the picture we
paint—although we know that not all will agree with our conclusions.
Unsourced information or quotations in the following text are taken from
viii PREFACE
with the announcement of the result, and only briefly covers the process
of formation of the government.
The team at Palgrave Macmillan have been supportive and encourag-
ing, and have allowed us to tell what we think is a fascinating story.
2 Brexit 21
Jack Glynn and Anand Menon
7 Towards a Landslide 149
8 Everything Changes 177
With Wes Ball
xi
xii Contents
Index 549
List of Figures and Box
xiii
List of Tables
xv
xvi List of Tables
Photographs
Party Advertisements
xix
xx Lists of Illustrations
Cartoons
‘We have to stop meeting like this’ [Matt, Daily Telegraph, 19 April 2017]
© Matt/Telegraph Media Group Ltd 8
‘Bring it on!’ [Peter Brookes, The Times, 20 April 2017]
© News UK/News Licensing 11
Tug of war [Morten Morland, The Times, 15 June 2016]
© News UK/News Licensing 28
‘Let’s never ask the public for their views ever again’ [Matt, Daily
Telegraph, 26 June 2016]
© Matt/Telegraph Media Group Ltd 32
EU Referendum 2016 [Steve Bell, The Guardian, 3 February 2016]
© Steve Bell 43
Red Carpet Treatment… [Peter Brookes, The Times, 12 July 2016]
© News UK/News Licensing 46
‘Thank you for resigning from the shadow cabinet…’ [Matt, Daily
Telegraph, 28 June 2016]
© Matt/Telegraph Media Group Ltd 82
When the punchbag is victorious [Moran, Daily Telegraph,
25 September 2016]
© Bob Moran/Telegraph Media Group Ltd 86
‘Don’t go all wobbly on me, Tim!’ [Peter Brookes, The Times, 26 April 2017]
© News UK/News Licensing 101
‘The party is divided. The loonies may split from the fruitcakes’
[Matt, Daily Telegraph, 17 September 2016]
© Matt/Telegraph Media Group Ltd 110
‘Don’t just hope for a scottier Scotland, vote for one’
[Steve Bell, The Guardian, 3 May 2016]
© Steve Bell 127
‘Having a referendum to leave the union would be divisive…’ [Adams,
Daily Telegraph, 28 March 2017]
© Adams/Telegraph Media Group Ltd 129
‘The tortoise always wins!’ [Moran, Daily Telegraph, 22 April 2017]
© Bob Moran/Telegraph Media Group Ltd 150
‘Bring it on’ [Adams, Daily Telegraph, 19 April 2017]
© Adams/Telegraph Media Group Ltd 153
After ‘Being John Malkovich’ [Ben Jennings, The Guardian, 30 May 2017]
© Ben Jennings 178
In the Victory Bunker [Martin Rowson, The Guardian, 21 May 2017]
© Martin Rowson 186
‘If…’ [Steve Bell, The Guardian, 8 June 2017]
© Steve Bell 187
Lists of Illustrations
xxi
IN HOUSE.
COLORED SCHOOLS.
June 8.—The House passed a bill to provide for the public
instruction of youth in Washington city, with an amendment
providing for separate schools for the colored children, by setting
apart such a proportion of the entire school fund as the number of
colored children between the ages of six and seventeen bear to the
whole number of children in the District. The bill, with amendments,
passed both Houses without a division.
On all of these questions of color, the Democrats invariably, on test
votes, were found against any concession of rights to the negro.
These were frequently aided by some Republicans, more
conservative than their colleagues, or representing closer districts
where political prejudices would affect their return to their seats. It
will be observed that on nearly all these questions Senator Charles
Sumner took the lead. He was at that time pre-eminently the Moses
of the colored man, and led him from one right to another through
Senatorial difficulties, which by the way, were never as strong as that
in the House, where Thaddeus Stevens was the boldest champion of
“the rights of the black man.” In the field, rather in the direction of
what should be done with the “contrabands” and escaped slaves, the
Secretary of War, General Cameron, was their most radical friend,
and his instructions were so outspoken that Lincoln had to modify
them. As early as December 1, 1861, General Cameron wrote:
“While it is plain that the slave property of the South is justly
subjected to all the consequences of this rebellious war, and that the
Government would be untrue to its trust in not employing all the
rights and powers of war to bring it to a speedy close, the details of
the plan for doing so, like all other military measures, must, in a
great degree, be left to be determined by particular exigencies. The
disposition of other property belonging to the rebels that becomes
subject to our arms is governed by the circumstances of the case. The
Government has no power to hold slaves, none to restrain a slave of
his liberty, or to exact his service. It has a right, however, to use the
voluntary service of slaves liberated by war from their rebel masters,
like any other property of the rebels, in whatever mode may be most
efficient for the defence of the Government, the prosecution of the
war, and the suppression of rebellion. It is clearly a right of the
government to arm slaves when it may become necessary as it is to
take gunpowder from the enemy. Whether it is expedient to do so is
purely a military question. The right is unquestionable by the laws of
war. The expediency must be determined by circumstances, keeping
in view the great object of overcoming the rebels, re-establishing the
laws, and restoring peace to the nation.
“It is vain and idle for the Government to carry on this war, or
hope to maintain its existence against rebellious force, without
enjoying all the rights and powers of war. As has been said, the right
to deprive the rebels of their property in slaves and slave labor is as
clear and absolute as the right to take forage from the field, or cotton
from the warehouse, or powder and arms from the magazine. To
leave the enemy in the possession of such property as forage and
cotton and military stores, and the means of constantly reproducing
them, would be madness. It is, therefore, equal madness to leave
them in peaceful and secure possession of slave property, more
valuable and efficient to them for war than forage, cotton and
military stores. Such policy would be national suicide. What to do
with that species of property is a question that time and
circumstances will solve, and need not be anticipated further than to
repeat that they cannot be held by the Government as slaves. It
would be useless to keep them as prisoners of war; and self-
preservation, the highest duty of a Government, or of individuals,
demands that they should be disposed of or employed in the most
effective manner that will tend most speedily to suppress the
insurrection and restore the authority of the Government. If it shall
be found that the men who have been held by the rebels as slaves are
capable of bearing arms and performing efficient military service, it
is the right, and may become the duty, of this Government to arm
and equip them, and employ their services against the rebels, under
proper military regulations, discipline and command.
“But in whatever manner they may be used by the Government, it
is plain that, once liberated by the rebellious act of their masters,
they should never again be restored to bondage. By the master’s
treason and rebellion he forfeits all right to the labor and service of
his slave; and the slave of the rebellious master, by his service to the
Government, becomes justly entitled to freedom and protection.
“The disposition to be made of the slaves of rebels, after the close
of the war, can be safely left to the wisdom and patriotism of
Congress. The representatives of the people will unquestionably
secure to the loyal slaveholders every right to which they are entitled
under the Constitution of the country.”
[Subsequent events proved the wisdom of this policy, and it was
eventually adopted by an Administration which proclaimed its policy
“to move not ahead but with the people.”]
President Lincoln and his Cabinet modified the above language so
as to make it read:
“It is already a grave question what shall be done with those slaves
who were abandoned by their owners on the advance of our troops
into southern territory, as at Beaufort district, in South Carolina. The
number left within our control at that point is very considerable, and
similar cases will probably occur. What shall be done with them? Can
we afford to send them forward to their masters, to be by them
armed against us, or used in producing supplies to sustain the
rebellion? Their labor may be useful to us; withheld from the enemy
it lessens his military resources, and withholding them has no
tendency to induce the horrors of insurrection, even in the rebel
communities. They constitute a military resource, and, being such,
that they should not be turned over to the enemy is too plain to
discuss. Why deprive him of supplies by a blockade, and voluntarily
give him men to produce them?
“The disposition to be made of the slaves of rebels, after the close
of the war, can be safely left to the wisdom and patriotism of
Congress. The Representatives of the people will unquestionably
secure to the loyal slaveholders every right to which they are entitled
under the Constitution of the country.”
Secretary Cameron was at all times in favor of “carrying the war
into Africa” and it was this stern view of the situation which
eventually led him to sanction measures which brought him into
plainer differences with the Administration. Lincoln took offense at
the printing of his report before submitting it to him. As a result he
resigned and went to Russia as Minister, on his return being again
elected to the United States Senate—a place which he filled until the
winter of 1877, when he resigned, and his son, J. Donald Cameron,
was elected to the vacancy, and re-elected for the term ending in
1885. General B. F. Butler was the author of the “contraband” idea. A
year later the views of the Administration became more radical on
questions of color, and July 22, 1862, Secretary Stanton ordered all
Generals in command “to seize and use any property, real or
personal, which may be necessary or convenient for their several
commands, for supplies, or for other military purposes; and that
while property may be destroyed for proper military objects, none
shall be destroyed in wantonness or malice.
“Second. That military and naval commanders shall employ as
laborers, within and from said States, so many persons of African
descent as can be advantageously used for military or naval
purposes, giving them reasonable wages for their labor.
“Third. That, as to both property, and persons of African descent,
accounts shall be kept sufficiently accurate and in detail to show
quantities and amounts, and from whom both property and such
persons shall have come, as a basis upon which compensation can be
made in proper cases; and the several departments of this
Government shall attend to and perform their appropriate parts
towards the execution of these orders.”
The manner and language employed by General McClellan in
promulgating this order to the Army of the Potomac, led to his
political differences with the Administration, and in the end caused
him to be the Democratic candidate for President in 1864, against
Lincoln. His language is peculiar and some of it worthy of
presentation as of political importance. He said:
“Inhabitants, especially women and children, remaining peaceably
at their homes, must not be molested; and wherever commanding
officers find families peculiarly exposed in their persons or property
to marauding from this army, they will, as heretofore, so far as they
can do with safety and without detriment to the service, post guards
for their protection.
“In protecting private property, no reference is intended to
persons held to service or labor by reason of African descent. Such
persons will be regarded by this army, as they heretofore have been,
as occupying simply a peculiar legal status under State laws, which
condition the military authorities of the United States are not
required to regard at all in districts where military operations are
made necessary by the rebellious action of the State governments.
“Persons subject to suspicion of hostile purposes, residing or being
near our forces, will be, as heretofore, subject to arrest and
detention, until the cause or necessity is removed. All such arrested
parties will be sent, as usual, to the Provost Marshal General, with a
statement of the facts in each case.
“The general commanding takes this occasion to remind the
officers and soldiers of this army that we are engaged in supporting
the Constitution and the laws of the United States and suppressing
rebellion against their authority; that we are not engaged in a war of
rapine, revenge, or subjugation; that this is not a contest against
populations, but against armed forces and political organizations;
that it is a struggle carried on with the United States, and should be
conducted by us upon the highest principles known to Christian
civilization.”
At this time such were the prejudices of Union soldiers against
negroes, because of growing political agitation in the North, that
many would loudly jeer them when seen within the lines. The feeling
was even greater in the ranks of civilians, and yet Congress moved
along, step by step. The 37th abolished slavery in the District of
Columbia; prohibited it in all the territories; confirmed the freedom
of the slaves owned by those in arms against the government;
authorized the employment of colored men in fortifications, their
enlistment, etc.; and enacted an additional article of war, which
prohibited any officer from returning or aiding the return of any
fugitive slave. These were rapid strides, but not as rapid as were
demanded by the more radical wing of the Republican party. We
have shown that most of them were opposed by the Democrats, not
solidly sure where they were plainly political, but this party became
less solid as the war advanced.
Senator Wilson was the author of the bill to abolish slavery in the
District of Columbia. It excited much debate, and the range of the
speeches covered the entire question of slavery. Those from the
Border States opposed it (a few Republicans and all Democrats) but
some of the Democrats of the North supported it. The vote in the
Senate was 29 for to 6 against. In the House Frank P. Blair, Jr.,
advocated colonization in connection with the bill, but his idea met
with little favor. Crittenden, Wickliffe and Vallandigham were
prominent in opposition. Its most prominent advocates were Stevens
of Pennsylvania, and Bingham of Ohio. The vote was 92 for to 38
against.
The bill of Arnold, of Illinois, “to render freedom national and
slavery sectional,” the leading idea in the platform of the convention
which nominated Lincoln, prohibited slavery in “all the Territories of
the United States then existing, or thereafter to be formed or
acquired in any way.” It was vehemently opposed, but passed with
some modifications by 58 ayes to 50 noes, and it also passed the
Senate.
In the Spring of 1862 General David Hunter brought the question
of the enlistment of colored troops to a direct issue by raising a
regiment of them. On the 9th of June following, Mr. Wickliffe of
Kentucky, succeeded in getting the House to adopt a resolution of
inquiry. Correspondence followed with General Hunter. He
confessed the fact, stated that “he found his authority in the
instructions of Secretary Cameron, and said that he hoped by fall to
enroll about fifty thousand of these hardy and devoted soldiers.”
When this reply was read in the House it was greeted with shouts of
laughter from the Republicans, and signs of anger from the others. A
great debate followed on the amendment to the bill providing for the
calling out of the militia, clothing the President with full power to
enlist colored troops, and to proclaim “he, his mother, and wife and
children forever free,” after such enlistment. Preston King, of New
York, was the author of this amendment. Davis, of Kentucky, and
Carlisle of West Virginia, were prominent Senators in opposition;
while Ten Eyck, of New Jersey, Sherman of Ohio, and Browning of
Illinois sought to modify it. Garrett Davis said in opposition:
“Do you expect us to give our sanction and approval to these
things? No, no! We would regard their authors as our worst enemies;
and there is no foreign despotism that could come to our rescue, that
we would not fondly embrace, before we would submit to any such
condition of things.”
Senator Fessenden of Maine, in advocacy of the amendment, said:
“I tell the President from my place here as a Senator, and I tell the
generals of our army, they must reverse their practices and course of
proceeding on this subject. * * * Treat your enemies as enemies, as
the worst of enemies, and avail yourselves like men of every power
which God has placed in your hands, to accomplish your purpose,
within the rules of civilized warfare.”
The bill passed, so modified, as to give freedom to all who should
perform military service, but restricting liberty to the families of such
only as belonged to rebel masters. It passed the House July 16th,
1862, and received the sanction of the President, who said:—“And
the promise made must be kept!” General Hunter for his part in
beginning colored enlistments, was outlawed by the Confederate
Congress. Hunter followed with an order freeing the slaves in South
Carolina.
In January, 1863, pursuant to a suggestion in the annual report of
Secretary Stanton, who was by this time as radical as his predecessor
in office, the House passed a bill authorizing the President to enroll
into the land and naval service such number of volunteers of African
descent as he might deem useful to suppress the rebellion, and for
such term as he might prescribe, not exceeding five years. The slaves
of loyal citizens in the Border States were excluded from the
provisions of this bill. In the Senate an adverse report was made on
the ground that the resident already possessed these powers.
In January, 1863, Senator Wilson, who was by this time chairman
of the Military Committee of the Senate, secured the passage of a bill
which authorized a draft for the National forces from the ranks of all
male citizens, and those of foreign birth who had declared their
intentions, etc. The bill contained the usual exemptions.
B. L. Stovall,
Speaker of the Senate.
The Richmond press publish the official copy of “An act to increase
the efficiency of the army by the employment of free negroes and
slaves in certain capacities,” lately passed by the Rebel Congress. The
negroes are to perform “such duties as the Secretary of War or
Commanding General may prescribe.” The first section is as follows:
The Congress of the Confederate States of America do enact, That
all male free negroes, and other free persons of color, not including
those who are free under the treaty of Paris, of 1803, or under the
treaty of Spain, of 1819, resident in the Confederate States, between
the ages of eighteen and fifty years, shall be held liable to perform
such duties with the army, or in connection with the military
defences of the country, in the way of work upon the fortifications, or
in government works for the production or preparation of materials
of war, or in military hospitals, as the Secretary of War or the
Commanding General of the Trans-Mississippi Department may,
from time to time, prescribe; and while engaged in the performances
of such duties shall receive rations and clothing and compensation at
the rate of eleven dollars a month, under such rules and regulations
as the said Secretary may establish: Provided, That the Secretary of
War or the Commanding General of the Trans-Mississippi
Department, with the approval of the President, may exempt from
the operations of this act such free negroes as the interests of the
country may require should be exempted, or such as he may think
proper to exempt on the ground of justice, equity or necessity.
The third section provides that when the Secretary of War shall be
unable to procure the services of slaves in any military department,
then he is authorized to impress the services of as many male slaves,
not to exceed twenty thousand, as may be required, from time to
time, to discharge the duties indicated in the first section of the act.
The owner of the slave is to be paid for his services; or, if he be
killed or “escape to the enemy,” the owner shall receive his full value.
Governor Smith, of Virginia, has made a call for five thousand
male slaves to work on the batteries, to be drawn from fifty counties.
The call for this force has been made by the President under a
resolution of Congress.