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The Tripartite Realist
War: Analysing
Russia’s Invasion of
Ukraine
Danny Singh
The Tripartite Realist War: Analysing Russia’s
Invasion of Ukraine
Danny Singh
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer
Nature Switzerland AG 2023
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Preface
The purpose of this book seeks to explain in summary form the reasons
for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022 and the goals of
its main participants, Russia, Ukraine, the United States and allied North
Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). This topic is needed because it
harnesses an understanding why this war happened. In Western countries,
the mainstream is dominated by a one-sided; propaganda perception of
the war in Ukraine in the dichotomy of evil Russia, good Ukraine and the
West is rightly on the side of good. There is little explanation why this
war has taken place, and of the interests of the parties to the conflict.
The book examines the main international relations theories to explain
the war. It includes realism, liberalism and constructivism. It is argued that
the most useful theoretical tool to understand the war is realism, applied
in three of its varieties, classical, offensive neorealism and defensive neore-
alism. The book also demonstrates how this can be studied from a liberal
and constructivist perspective. The cause of this war is largely due to the
aggravation of Russia by the West through NATO’s systematic expansion
near its borders. Moscow documented that Kyiv’s declared accession of
Ukraine to NATO threatened its vital security interests and had taken
pre-emptive action, resorting to war and clear abuses of international law.
Many works from the West on war provide a dominant narrative from a
liberal perspective that tends to support American global policy, including
towards Russia. This is a dangerous war of the United States and virtually
the entire West against Russia, to the final Ukrainian.
v
vi PREFACE
1 Introduction 1
References 6
2 Main International Relations Theories 7
An Explanation of Realism 7
An Explanation of Liberalism 24
Constructivism: An Alternative Explanation 35
Contributions of International Relations Theory 53
References 56
3 NATO During the Cold War and Dissolution
of the Soviet Union 67
Formation of NATO 67
The Counterbalancing Warsaw Pact 70
The Economic and Political Demise of the Soviet Union 71
NATO’s Expansionism and Containment of Russia 73
References 79
4 Ukrainian Desire for Political Autonomy and NATO
Accession 83
Orange Revolution 83
NATO Membership Action Plan and National Security
Strategy 85
vii
viii CONTENTS
Bibliography 217
Index 257
About the Author
ix
Abbreviations
xi
xii ABBREVIATIONS
UK United Kingdom
UN United States
UNMIK United Nations Interim Mission in Kosovo
US United States
WMD Weapon of Mass Destruction
CHAPTER 1
Introduction
Ukraine has been supported by the United States (US) and European
states with military equipment and financial and humanitarian aid. Diplo-
macy has failed. Russian and Ukrainian officials have met in Belarus—a
Russian ally—on at least three occasions to create a short ceasefire and
open humanitarian corridors to safely evacuate Ukrainian civilians, but
the agreements do not consolidate with Kyiv’s political ambitions and
thus Russian airstrikes still hit major Ukrainian cities.
The purpose of this book is to provide an overview of the North
Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and how it has engaged in expan-
sionism policy to further contain Russia in contemporary international
affairs with the accession of additional former Soviet states. To attain this
objective, the book covers a realist understanding of the initiation and
continuation of the current Russia-Ukraine conflict by responding to the
research question; how can realism explain power politics of the current
Russian invasion of Ukraine? Alternative explanations can be reached
with different theories, but realism (and its variations) is selected, and
proven when compared with liberalism and constructivism, to under-
stand the dynamics of power politics due to the historical legacy of
NATO, the former Soviet Union and its dissolution and the relation-
ship between Russia and Ukraine. It is specifically argued that NATO,
Russia and Ukraine pursued realist interests that serve as the main cata-
lyst of this conflict, making diplomacy and collective defence measures
difficult to implement. An understanding of classical realism and struc-
tural realism during the Cold War is initially presented to harness an
understanding of NATO, Ukrainian and Russian geopolitical interests. To
reach this argument, the book addresses two further international rela-
tions theories—liberalism and constructivism—as competing theories,4
when analysing the role of NATO, Ukraine’s ambitions of accession to the
4 This follows a similar structure with Posen on security of the European Union
explained with the tenets of realism, principally structural realism to present the balance
of power theory on US unipolarity, which is contrasted with liberalism as a competing
international relations theory (Barry Ross Posen, “European Union Security and Defence
Policy: Response to Unipolarity?” Security Studies, Vol. 15, No. 2 (April–June 2006),
pp. 149–186). The former theory, realism, presents the debate on how European states
have expanded security initiatives since 1999 with the European Security and Defence
Policy (ESDP) as an alternative security provider to NATO and the latter theory on
how balancing is not required because European states are liberal democracies that share
similar liberalist values (Barry Ross Posen, “ESDP and the Structure of World Power,”
The International Spectator, Vol. 39, No. 1 (April 2008), pp. 6–9; Posen, “European
Union Security and Defence Policy,” pp. 153–164).
1 INTRODUCTION 3
Western Alliance, which has been supported by the West and American
motivations of the war, Russian responses, the February 2022 invasion,
and international condemnation, imposed sanctions and legal debates
against the Kremlin.
Although the book examines the events of the Russian invasion of
Ukraine from a realist perspective (including most of its variations), this
purpose serves to develop an understanding of the conflict, and principally
the role of power politics, between NATO, Ukraine and Russia. It will
endeavour an analysis of what tenet(s) of realism best explain(s) Russia’s
recent invasion of Ukraine. In doing so, the book covers the main variants
of realism, namely classical realism, structural realism (both offensive and
defensive neorealism ) and applies them to the war within the historical
and contemporary analyses (Chapters 3–5).
Despite a strong leaning towards realism, competing international rela-
tions theories—namely liberalism and constructivism—are also presented
to provide alternative explanations of the war. The book will later demon-
strate the limits of liberalism when analysing the deficits of regime
theory, condemnation, sanctions, just war ethics and international legal
efforts against Russia. However, the variations of constructivism, namely
conventional and critical, also provide valid explanations on the ideational
politics of Russian and Ukrainian ideology, historical symbols and myths
and language (discourse) that can supplement realist national security
interests (the material realities/outcomes). Although the accounts of
liberalism and constructivism are less substantive than realism to explain
the war, they provide useful explanations of state behaviour, the role of
institutional alliances, international law and standardization and socially
constructed myths, symbols and accounts of the enemy.
The forthcoming chapter presents realist, liberalist and constructivist
theories. After a discussion on realism, demonstrating a principal focus on
statism, survival and self-help to deal with anarchy by seeking relative gain
within the international political system, liberalism is covered. It includes
the basis on respecting international law and upholding the rule of law,
meaning that even heads of states are accountable for war crimes. This
part also engages with the role of other regional security organizations
that are pivotal for peace, cooperation, trade and the rules of collective
security and self-defence for the absolute advantage of states within the
international society. These aspects are relevant to endorse and promote
sanctions and international law, and internationally condemn the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. It will be argued that regime theory explains how
4 D. SINGH
5 It must be stressed that all the broad tents of realism, liberalism and construc-
tivism as meta-theories span beyond the scope of this book. Therefore, the basis of
these three mainstream international relations theories is covered to analyse Russia’s inva-
sion of Ukraine and the role of power politics that has undermined regime theory
and liberalism. Moreover, the book does not criticize each theory from its own meta-
theories. For a comprehensive review of the separated components of realism, liberalism
and constructivism, consult Robert Jackson, Georg Sörensen and Jörgen Möller, Intro-
duction to International Relations: Theories and Approaches, 7th ed. (Oxford: Oxford
University Press, 2019), pp. 69–142, 234–261 or Joseph Grieco, Gliford John Ikenberry
and Michael Mastanduno, Introduction to International Relations: Perspectives, Connections
and Enduring Questions, 2nd ed. (London: Red Globe Press, 2019), pp. 78–93.
1 INTRODUCTION 5
United States. The political motives of the United States are then brought
to attention because it had led to the containment of the Soviet Union
and subsequently Russia since the outset of the Cold War, ultimately
forming security allies from Canada and Europe with the formation of
NATO.
Russia’s criticism of NATO and the United States overriding interna-
tional law to pursue their geopolitical interests are raised with the contexts
of Serbia in 1999, Iraq in 2003 and Libya in 2011. The latter contexts
specifically focus on the political stalemate within the United Nations
Security Council, Putin’s legal criticism of NATO intervening in Kosovo
and Libya and the United States in Iraq to further sway the Kremlin away
from the international community and pursue an illiberal authoritarian
regime. Russia’s position has undermined the Responsibility to Protect
doctrine due to Moscow and often China, protecting the state sovereignty
of Syria when under scrutiny of using chemical weapons against civil-
ians to foster amicable relations with Damascus as a crucial Middle East
client state. Russia and China share the belief of complying with tradi-
tional Westphalian sovereignty and interpret the Charter of the United
Nations to protect state sovereignty from the encroachment of other
states pursuing their international relations.6
The penultimate analysis chapter builds on the evaluation of Kyiv’s
ambitions to provide a discussion on Russia’s security dilemma of poten-
tial Ukrainian accession into NATO that would also contain Russia from
its western border. This covers Russian responses from namely 2008 to
date that has included supporting Georgian separatists, shutting off gas
supplies to Ukraine, annexing Crimea, supporting the separatist move-
ments of Luhansk and Donetsk during the Donbass War, and eventually
invading Ukraine in late February 2022. The latter has resulted in
the further annexation of four oblasts located in the Donbass region,
positioned in eastern Ukraine, in September 2022.
The discordant relations between Russia and Ukraine are followed
by the relevance of international responses of condemnation, sanctions,
just war theoretical responses and international legal debates. The inter-
national law arguments will address the inability of NATO to directly
defend a non-member via a military intervention in Ukraine, and the
unlikely viability of holding Putin accountable for the crime of aggression
6 United Nations, Charter of the United Nations, October 24, 1945, 1 United Nations
Treaty Series XVI, Article 2 (4).
6 D. SINGH
and war crimes. It will be argued that Russia has contravened just war
ethics by targeting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and energy sources
that stretches beyond military necessity, but power politics presently, and
historically, advocates that just war is merely a justification of war that
Putin has marketed to his populace with discourse, myths and symbols.
The conclusion argues that a tripartite realism of NATO, Ukraine and
Russia is fundamental to understand the conflict that has made collec-
tive security measures, NATO’s collective defence for a non-member
(Ukraine), diplomacy and accountability for the crime of aggression and
war crimes difficult to implement. The shift from NATO’s bipolar balance
of power to expanding Western influence has further antagonized Russia.
After engaging in alternative liberalist and constructivist explanations, a
realist account of the current war is reached because the principal focus
rests on power politics to understand the context that can promote better
diplomatic relations between Russia and Ukraine.
References
Grieco, Joseph, Gliford John Ikenberry, and Michael Mastanduno. Introduction
to International Relations: Perspectives, Connections, and Enduring Questions,
2nd ed. London: Red Globe Press, 2019.
International Organisation for Migration. “Ukraine: IDP Estimates.” November
4, 2022, https://data.humdata.org/dataset/ukraine-idp-estimates.
Jackson, Robert, Georg Sörensen, and Jörgen Möller. Introduction to Interna-
tional Relations: Theories and Approaches, 7th ed. Oxford: Oxford University
Press, 2019.
Posen, Barry Ross. “European Union Security and Defence Policy: Response to
Unipolarity?” Security Studies, Vol. 15, No. 2 (April–June 2006), pp. 149–
186, https://doi.org/10.1080/09636410600829356.
Posen, Barry Ross. “ESDP and the Structure of World Power.” The International
Spectator, Vol. 39, No. 1 (April 2008), pp. 5–17, https://doi.org/10.1080/
03932720408457057.
United Nations. Charter of the United Nations. October 24, 1945, 1 United
Nations Treaty Series, XVI.
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, “Operational Data Portal:
Ukraine Refugee Situation,” January 3, 2023, https://data.unhcr.org/en/sit
uations/ukraine.
United Nations Office of the High Commissioner. “Ukraine: Civilian Casu-
alty Update.” June 19, 2023, https://www.ohchr.org/en/news/2023/06/
ukraine-civilian-casualty-update-19-june-2023.
CHAPTER 2
An Explanation of Realism
Realism undertakes a pessimistic perspective of human nature that focuses
on a global desire for power and the inescapability of egoism.1 All actions
cannot be free of egoism because states, as with individuals, advance their
self-interests and are power hungry.2 The basic foundations of realism rest
on the calculation of primacy of state interests and “unregulated compe-
tition of states,” with states functioning as the highest rational actors
seeking power in relative terms within an anarchic international system
vying for state survival.3 These aspects of egoistic human nature coupled
1 Hans Joachim Morgenthau, Scientific Man Versus Power Politics (Chicago, IL:
University of Chicago Press, 1946).
2 Hans Joachim Morgenthau, Dilemmas of Politics (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago
Press, 1958), pp. 55–58.
3 Jack Donnelly, Realism and International Relations (Cambridge: Cambridge Univer-
sity Press, 2000), p. 7.
Political/Classical Realism
Realism is an archaic theory in international relations. Classical realism
focuses on: (i) power among states; (ii) self-interests holding main moti-
vation; and (iii) the negation of a moral outlook to idealism.4 It has
roots to ancient Greece and the famous Melian dialogue. The Melian
dialogue comprises the Siege of Melos (416 BC) that entailed a war
between two rival city-states: Athens and Sparta. This besieging is notably
narrated by an Athenian historian and general, Thucydides, who was in
exile during the negotiations between the Athenians and heads of Melos.
Athens was the superior nation that invaded Melos, the weaker nation,
which was positioned in the Aegean Sea (an island east of Greece) inhab-
ited by Dorian islanders.5 The Melian population were ethnically similar
to Spartans and opted to preserve neutrality during the war.
Once Melos was invaded, the Athenians ordered the Melians to
concede to Athens or be slaughtered by a greater army. The Melians
would not surrender and stressed they were a neutral city, and thus did
not constitute an enemy, meaning Athens should hold no interest to
4 Steven Forde, “International Realism and the Science of Politics: Thucydides, Machi-
avelli, and Neorealism,” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 39, No. 2 (June 1995),
p. 143.
5 Thucydides, Speeches from Thucydides, trans. Henry Musgrave Wilkins (London:
Longmans, Green, and Co., 1873), p. 171.
2 MAIN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS THEORIES 9
6 David Kinsella, Bruce Russett and Harvey Starr, World Politics: The Menu for Choice,
10th ed. (Boston, MA: Wadsworth Cengage Learning, 2013), p. 40.
7 Robert B. Strassler, The Landmark Thucydides: A Comprehensive Guide to the
Peloponnesian War (New York: Free Press, 1996).
8 Philip Nel, “Theories of International Relations,” in Power, Wealth and Global Equity:
An International Relations Textbook for Africa, 3rd ed., eds. Patrick J. McGowan, Scarlett
Cornelissen and Philip Nel (Lansdowne, PA: UCT Press, 2006), pp. 23–24.
9 Forde, “International Realism and the Science of Politics,” p. 149.
10 Forde, “International Realism and the Science of Politics,” pp. 145, 154.
11 W. Julian Korab-Karpowicz, A History of Political Philosophy: From Thucydides to
Locke (New York: Global Scholarly Publications, 2010), p. 13.
12 Forde, “International Realism and the Science of Politics,” p. 143.
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