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Bayesian Philosophy of Science
Jan Sprenger Stephan Hartmann
1
3
Great Clarendon Street, Oxford, OX2 6DP,
United Kingdom
Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford.
It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship,
and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of
Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries
© Jan Sprenger and Stephan Hartmann 2019
The moral rights of the authors have been asserted
First Edition published in 2019
Impression: 1
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in
a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the
prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted
by law, by licence or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics
rights organization. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the
above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the
address above
You must not circulate this work in any other form
and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer
Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press
198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Data available
Library of Congress Control Number: 2019941395
ISBN 978–0–19–967211–0
Printed and bound by
CPI Group (UK) Ltd, Croydon, CR0 4YY
Links to third party websites are provided by Oxford in good faith and
for information only. Oxford disclaims any responsibility for the materials
contained in any third party website referenced in this work.
Ich bin ein Esel, und will getreu,
wie meine Väter, die Alten,
an der alten, lieben Eselei,
am Eseltume halten.
—Heinrich Heine
First Author’s Preface
Like many things in life that you do for the first time, writing a book
is tempting and scary at the same time. It is scary because the stakes
are high: A weaker journal article or edited volume chapter is easily
pardoned by the academic community. It ends up not being cited and
that’s it. A book, however, is measured by different standards: it is
assumed that you have written it without having to satisfy capricious
referees, stressed editors and strict length and style constraints. It is
supposed to show your highest level of philosophical thinking. (The
analogue in music is perhaps the difference between writing a piano
sonata and writing a symphony—especially when it is the first. We
know well how much even the greatest composers have struggled
with this step!) For personalities like me, who tend to be perfectionist
and sloppy at the same time, this means that you spend an endless
amount of time on revisions and corrections. At some point, then, the
entire project feels like a never-ending story and you are just happy to
complete it and to move on to new challenges.
At the same time, writing a book is a great temptation. Not only
because having a bundle of casebound paper on your desk gives a
different feeling of reward than being notified that your article has
been published on the journal’s homepage. Writing a book is some-
thing that allows you to reflect on your professional contributions and
achievements. You can put them into a context that allows the readers
to grasp the bigger picture and to perceive the links between the
different parts of your work. While the process was at times tedious
and frustrating, overall I enjoyed it very much. I enjoy even more that
we have—finally!—brought the project to a successful conclusion.
Like with most young philosophers, the idea of publishing a
book was born when I was about to complete my Ph.D. thesis in
vii
viii First Author’s Preface
on the book. Most of you will not read this book anyway, so I don’t
have to list you all! But please feel included, regardless of whether you
are part of the Doppelkopf clique from high school or the (all-German)
French connection “Où est le vin?”, whether we made friends at the
TSVV Merlijn football club, whether we played chess together for
Leidsche Schaakgenootschap or Šahovski Klub Brda, or whether you
are just a good friend without any affiliations! Last, but certainly not
least, I would like to thank my parents for their continuous support
and belief in me. It is great to have a place that you can always come
back to.
xiii
xiv Second Author’s Preface
The late Patrick Suppes was my academic mentor for more than
twenty years, and I owe him more than I can say in words. I am also
tremendously thankful for the constant support and encouragement
of Jeremy Butterfield, Roman Frigg and Margie Morrison. Luc Bovens
got me excited about Bayesianism in the late 1990s, for which I am
very grateful. I would also like to thank him for our always enjoyable
and productive collaboration. It turned my academic life around and
opened a whole new field for me. Peter Momtchiloff has been an
excellent and patient editor and it was a pleasure to work again with
him. Several chapters of this book contain material which appeared
already in joint papers with Benjamin Eva, Foad Dizadji-Bahmani,
Richard Dawid, Branden Fitelson, Roman Frigg and Soroush Rafiee
Rad, and I would like to thank them for their input and the wonderful
collaborations. Erik Curiel provided detailed written feedback on an
earlier version of the manuscript and Christopher von Bülow did a
fantastic job as a copy editor. Thank you both! My course “Central
Topics in the Philosophy of Science” at lmu Munich in the academic
years 2015/2016 and 2017/2018 was partly based of the manuscript of
this book, and I would like to thank my students for their very helpful
feedback.
My biggest thanks goes to my friend and co-author Jan Sprenger
who did the lion’s share of this work and who also deserves the lion’s
share of the credit for it. It has been a lot of fun to discuss and work
out with him the ideas presented in this book. I would also like to
thank my friends and family for their support over the years. It means
a lot to me.
xvii
xviii Contents
2.3 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
Appendix: Proofs of the Theorems . . . . . . . . . . . . 78