Urban Transportation Planning - Assignment 1

Submitted by:
Pragya (23RB918)
Sakura Amanda Contrera Ibuki (24RB905)
Krishna (23RB913)

1. The following travel assumptions have been made for the level of service dataset:
a. Origin: Yokohama National University (Lawson, YNU)
b. Destination: 30 number locations in Tokyo Metropolitan Area
c. Mode: Public transit network (bus, subway, train etc)
d. 4 factors for choice or explanatory variables have been considered for choosing the most
preferable route:
1 Total Travel Time (TT): in Minutes
2 Cost (C): in Japanese Yen (JPY)
3 Total Access / Egress Walk Time (TW): in Minutes
4 Transfers (TF): the number of transfers of trains/subway to reach the destination from
origin

e. Level-of-service (LoS) dataset has been prepared with the most preferred route choice for each O-
D pair. (page 3)

2. Explain a model that can be used to explain the public transit route choice.
Multinomial Logit Discrete Choice model: The transit route choice can be explained by formulation of
choice in random utility theory. Accordingly, a Multinomial Logit (MNL) discrete choice model can be
made where the utility (level of satisfaction) function for a route alternative i may be described as
consisting of systematic observed term (Vi) and random term (ei). 𝑒i is the unexplained effect on the
dependent variable (i.e., choice of an alternative among multiple alternatives), as similar to regression
models.

U i = V i + ei
The route choice will be for the alternative with largest utility value.

Assumption: a linear function of the explanatory variables (variables affecting the choice of each
alternative and can be different between alternatives i.e. total travel time, cost, total access and egress
walk time and transfers) for the observed term Vi and the error term ei to follow an independent and
identical distribution (IID).
 Thus, Vi = ßTT TT + ßC C + ßWT TW + ßTF TF

where, ßTT = Parameter (sensitivity) for ‘Total Travel Time (TT)’

ßC = Parameter (sensitivity) for ‘Cost (C)’

ßWT = Parameter (sensitivity) for ‘Total Access/Egress Walk Time (WT)’

ßTF = Parameter (sensitivity) for ‘Transfers (TF)’
The parameter ß represents the sensitivity to a specific variable and relates to perception of the factor
(variable).

Note: There is no Alternative Specific Constant (ASC) for any route’s observed term (Vi) because the
routes are unlabelled and have no inherent constant value.

The values of the parameters (ß) for each of the factors are to be estimated by maximum likelihood
estimation method.

3. Discussion on the expected estimation results of the model:

a. ß is anticipated to be negative for all factors, as the sensitivity of choice to these factors is negative. In
other words, an increase in the cost or travel time of a route alternative is expected to decrease its
utility, thereby reducing the probability of it being chosen.
b. Value of Time (VoT) can be examined for total travel time and waiting time i.e. the two-time related
factors.
VoT for total travel time [ JPY / Minute] = ßTT / ßC

VoT for Walk Time for Access/Egress [ JPY / Minute] = ßTW / ßC

c. The VoT for TW will be larger than TT because of the disutility associated with access and egress. The
time spent in transfer and access/egress time is seen as an unproductive utilization of time.
d. ßTW will be larger than ß TT. This can be viewed as the naturally higher sensitivity to journey
interruptions compared to the total time spent in the vehicle.
e. The model predictability / fitness can also be predicted by calculating the 𝝆𝟐. A higher value of 𝜌2
would mean better predictability. It can be said to be a good model at a value above 90%.
 Level-of-Service (LoS) Dataset
Ob Origin Destination Choic Total Cost Total Transfer Total Cost Total Transfer
s e Trav (JPY) Access/Egre s1 Trav (JPY) Access/Egre s2
el 1 ss walk el 2 ss walk
Time timeT1 Time timeT2
1 2
TT1 C1 TW1 TF1 TT2 C2 TW2 TF2

1 Tokyo 1 54 571 17 1 72 806 22 0

Station
2 Shibuya 1 53 586 17 1 71 626 16 2
3 Shinjuku 3 59 739 10 1 66 769 12 1
4 Harajuku 3 60 739 15 2 65 739 17 2
5 Itabashi 1 71 827 12 2 79 934 12 2
6 Minato City 2 67 670 18 2 68 618 15 2
Museum
7 Edogawa 2 93 1,068 17 3 90 953 13 2
8 Sumida Park 1 83 764 22 2 82 907 20 2
9 Nihombashi 1 59 651 18 1 56 819 14 2
10 Tsukishima 1 66 829 22 2 65 712 16 3
11 Kuramae 3 75 712 17 2 69 871 19 2
12 Kabukicho 2 71 739 19 2 74 618 22 1
13 Roppongi 1 59 618 11 2 63 712 12 2
14 Ginza 3 61 712 12 1 57 819 18 2
15 Odaiba 1 78 976 20 2 86 743 37 2
Aqua
Lawso City
16 n, Koenji 1 75 934 15 2 86 789 20 3
17 YNU Tsukiji 2 62 768 12 2 66 712 17 1
18 Kichijoji 1 75 904 14 2 85 904 16 2
19 Ikebukuro 2 62 827 8 1 66 649 11 1
20 Ueno 1 71 800 14 1 75 768 16 2
21 Shimokitaza 2 71 895 20 2 67 700 21 2
wa
22 Ryogoku 3 73 848 15 2 79 739 15 2
23 Shinagawa 3 44 481 9 1 57 604 12 2
24 Asakusa 1 65 879 13 2 66 907 13 2
25 Machida 1 42 451 6 2 63 574 15 2
26 Hachioji 1 90 904 17 2 99 904 13 2
27 Adachi Park 2 111 1,295 35 3 108 1,037 32 3
of
Living
Things
28 Kawaguchi 2 80 904 16 2 95 904 6 1
29 Koto 1 79 799 19 2 82 819 25 2
Cultural
Centre
30 Akihabara 1 70 739 9 1 62 739 11 2