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DEVELOPMENT AID
AND

ADAPTATION TO
CLIMATE CHANGE
IN
DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES
Carola Betzold and Florian Weiler
Development Aid and Adaptation to Climate
Change in Developing Countries
Carola Betzold • Florian Weiler

Development Aid and


Adaptation to Climate
Change in Developing
Countries
Carola Betzold Florian Weiler
Institute of Political Science The School of Politics
University of Göttingen and International Relations
Göttingen, Germany University of Kent
Canterbury, Kent
UK

ISBN 978-3-319-64509-4 ISBN 978-3-319-64510-0 (eBook)


https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-64510-0

Library of Congress Control Number: 2017954953

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2018


This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher,
whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation,
reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in
any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic
adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or
hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are
exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information
in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the
publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect
to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made.
The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and
institutional affiliations.

Cover illustration: Artpilot

Printed on acid-free paper

This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by Springer Nature


The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
PREFACE

Developed countries have a moral and a legal obligation to assist devel-


oping countries that are ‘particularly’ vulnerable to the adverse effects of
climate change to deal with these effects. Financial flows from the Global
North for adaptation measures in the Global South are thus on the rise.
To what extent do these financial flows reach those most in need, those
most vulnerable to climate change and least able to adapt? And, just as
importantly, to what extent does the support from the Global North help
to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience among recipients?
In this book we focus on the first question: to what extent does adapta-
tion finance reach vulnerable countries? This speaks to the larger question
of aid allocation: how do donors distribute their adaptation aid? What
factors and criteria do they consider when making allocation decisions?
And how does the allocation of aid for adaptation differ from the allocation
of development aid in general? We started to become interested in these
questions as we observed that climate finance and specifically adaptation
finance is increasing globally, but that not all vulnerable countries such
as the small island developing states (SIDS) benefit to the same extent
from this new form of finance. While we were first interested in explaining
variation across SIDS only, we quickly extended our line of research to
include all developing countries eligible to receive development assistance.
We started to examine adaptation aid allocation by assessing data from
the OECD and presented the first results at the International Studies
Association Annual Conference in 2014, and there met with Christina
Brian from Palgrave Macmillan. She encouraged us to extend our research

v
vi PREFACE

and turn the conference paper into a book-length project. Without this
encouragement, we would not have written this book, and so we would
like to thank Christina first and foremost. We would also like to extend our
gratitude to the entire editing and production team for their support.
While statistical analyses of aid data served as the starting point of our
research project, we noted that numbers can only tell us so much. We
hence extended our first attempt at understanding how adaptation aid is
distributed through in-depth qualitative case studies. These built mainly
on semi-structured interviews with practitioners and other stakeholders
and observers in the aid sector in Germany, Sweden, and the United
Kingdom, our case study countries. We are very grateful to all our interview
partners for taking the time to speak to us and sharing their experiences and
perspectives. Funding from the Fritz Thyssen Foundation made it possible
for us to travel to Germany, Sweden, and the United Kingdom to conduct
interviews face-to-face.
We would also like to thank the many colleagues who helped develop
our research and this book. Thanks in particular to Anaïd Flesken for
helpful comments on previous versions of the book. Participants at the
workshop ‘Climate Finance: Taking Stock, Future Directions for Policy and
Research’ held in Lund in April 2015 provided useful comments on parts of
the project, as did Katja Michaelowa, Axel Michaelowa, Paula Castro, and
participants at the Climate and Environment Workshop held in Zurich in
January 2015. Matthew Dornan contributed to our larger research project
and provided valuable input on the aggregate analysis of all donors. Tobias
Jakobi helped with some technical questions. All errors remain of course
our own.

Göttingen, Germany Carola Betzold


Basel, Switzerland Florian Weiler
CONTENTS

1 Introduction 1
1.1 Definition of Key Concepts 3
1.1.1 Adaptation to Climate Change 4
1.1.2 Vulnerability 4
1.2 The Cost of Climate Change Adaptation 7
1.3 Financing Climate Change Adaptation 9
1.4 Overview of the Book and Contributions 11
References 15
2 The History and Political Economy of Adaptation Aid 21
2.1 History of Adaptation and Adaptation Finance in
Climate Change Negotiations 22
2.1.1 Adaptation at the Sidelines: The Early Years of
Climate Change Negotiations 22
2.1.2 Adaptation to the Fore: Adaptation Finance from
2001 to 2009 25
2.1.3 Finance Breakthrough: Adaptation Finance Since
2009 26
2.2 Adaptation Finance or Adaptation Aid? The Question of
Additionality 28

vii
viii CONTENTS

2.3 Aid Allocation 31


2.3.1 Recipient Need vs Donor Interests 32
2.3.2 Recipient Merit 35
2.3.3 Other Factors 36
2.4 Allocating Adaptation Aid 37
2.4.1 Vulnerability as Recipient Need 38
2.4.2 Measuring Vulnerability 40
2.4.3 Does Vulnerability Matter? 42
2.5 Summary and Our Expectations 44
References 46
3 Setting the Stage: A Mixed Methods Research Design 57
3.1 Our Overall Research Design: Mixed Methods 58
3.2 Quantitative Design 60
3.2.1 Our Dependent Variable: Adaptation Aid 62
3.2.2 Physical Vulnerability 66
3.2.3 Adaptive Capacity and Recipient Merit 72
3.2.4 Donor Interests 76
3.2.5 Control Variables 79
3.2.6 Modelling Strategy 80
3.3 Qualitative Design 82
3.3.1 Semi-structured Interviews 83
3.3.2 Policy Documents 84
3.3.3 Analysing Our Interview and Document Data 86
References 90
4 Descriptive Analysis: Adaptation Aid Flows in the OECD
CRS 99
4.1 Overview of Adaptation Aid Flows 100
4.1.1 Adaptation Aid Compared to Total Aid 100
4.1.2 Commitments Compared to Disbursements 102
4.2 Who Gives Adaptation Aid? 104
4.2.1 Bilateral Compared to Multilateral Flows 104
4.2.2 Bilateral Donors in Comparison: Total
Adaptation Aid 105
CONTENTS ix

4.2.3 Bilateral Donors in Comparison: Per Capita and


Percent 107
4.3 Who Receives Adaptation Aid? 109
4.3.1 Type of Recipient 110
4.3.2 Bilateral Versus Multilateral Flows 111
4.3.3 Recipients in Comparison 113
References 118
5 Quantitative Analysis: Who Gives Adaptation Aid to Whom? 121
5.1 Adaptation Aid Allocation Across All Donors 123
5.1.1 Physical Exposure and Sensitivity to Climate
Change Impacts 130
5.1.2 Adaptive Capacity and Good Governance 137
5.1.3 Donor Interests 149
5.1.4 Control Variables 155
5.2 Adaptation Aid Allocation in Germany, Sweden, and the
UK 156
5.2.1 Germany 157
5.2.2 Sweden 163
5.2.3 United Kingdom 165
References 168
6 Qualitative Analysis: Adaptation Aid in Germany,
Sweden, and the United Kingdom 171
6.1 Climate Change, Adaptation, and Development
Cooperation 172
6.1.1 Climate Change as a Priority Area 173
6.1.2 Adaptation or Development? 175
6.1.3 Adaptation or Mitigation? 177
6.2 The Aid Allocation Process 178
6.2.1 Recipient Need or Vulnerability to Climate
Change 180
6.2.2 Recipient Merit 183
6.2.3 Donor Interests 186
6.2.4 Additional Factors 188
x CONTENTS

6.3 Issues and Challenges 190


6.3.1 Additionality 190
6.3.2 Reporting and Accounting 192
6.3.3 Level of Funding 194
References 197
7 Conclusion 201
7.1 Overview 202
7.2 Results 205
7.3 Implications 209
References 214
Appendix 217
Index 219
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

BMZ Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit


und Entwicklung (German Federal Ministry for Economic
Cooperation and Development)
BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa
CDKN Climate and Development Knowledge Network
COP Conference of the Parties
CRI Climate Risk Index
CRS Creditor Reporting System
DAC Development Assistance Committee
DE val German Institute for Development Evaluation
D f ID Department for International Development
EVI Environmental Vulnerability Index
G7 Group of Seven (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan,
the United Kingdom, and the United States)
GDP Gross domestic product
GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für International Zusammenarbeit
(German Society for International Cooperation)
GNI Gross national income
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Kf W Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau
LDCF Least Developed Country Fund
LDC s Least developed countries
NAPA s National Adaptation Programmes of Action
ND - GAIN Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index
NGO Non-governmental organisation
ODA Official development assistance

xi
xii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development


PPP Purchasing power parity
SCCF Special Climate Change Fund
Sida Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency
SIDS Small island developing states
SOPAC South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission
SVCCI Structural Vulnerability to Climate Change Index
UAE United Arab Emirates
UK United Kingdom
UN United Nations
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change
USA United States of America
WGI s Worldwide Governance Indicators
LIST OF FIGURES

Fig. 1.1 Vulnerability and its components 5


Fig. 4.1 Total aid flows by year and adaptation objective 101
Fig. 4.2 Adaptation aid disbursements compared to commitments
over time (a); disbursements in percent of commitments for
selected donors (b) 103
Fig. 4.3 Adaptation aid flows by donor type 104
Fig. 4.4 Total adaptation aid for selected donors 106
Fig. 4.5 Adaptation aid for selected donors; per capita (a), and in
percent of all development aid (b) 108
Fig. 4.6 Adaptation aid by recipient type; overall (a), and for selected
donors (b) 110
Fig. 4.7 Share of adaptation aid provided by bilateral donors 112
Fig. 4.8 Distribution of principal adaptation aid 114
Fig. 4.9 Distribution of significant adaptation aid 115
Fig. 5.1 Correlation matrix of all dependent and independent variables 124
Fig. 5.2 Effects of the physical exposure variables for the full principal
aid models of the selection stage (above) and the allocation
stage (below), including 95% confidence intervals 131
Fig. 5.3 Effects of the adaptive capacity and/or recipient merit
variables for the full principal aid models of the selection
stage (above) and the allocation stage (below), including 95%
confidence intervals 139
Fig. 5.4 Effects of the vulnerability country dummies for the full
principal aid models of the selection stage (panel (a)) and
the allocation stage (panel (b)), including 95% confidence
intervals 144

xiii
xiv LIST OF FIGURES

Fig. 5.5 Effects of the donor interest variables for the full principal
adaptation aid models of the selection stage (above) and the
allocation stage (below), including 95% confidence intervals 151
Fig. 7.1 All substantive effects for the full model for both adaptation
aid allocation stages. (a) Selection stage. (b) Allocation stage 206
LIST OF TABLES

Table 3.1 Summary of all variables used in the statistical analysis 83


Table 3.2 List of interviews conducted in Sweden, Germany, and the
UK 85
Table 3.3 Overview of the policy documents used in the qualitative
analysis 87
Table 5.1 Principal adaptation aid, selection stage, all countries 126
Table 5.2 Principal adaptation aid, allocation stage, all countries 127
Table 5.3 Principal and discounted significant adaptation aid,
selection stage, all countries 128
Table 5.4 Principal and discounted significant adaptation aid,
allocation stage, all countries 129
Table 5.5 Selection and allocation stage for Germany, Sweden, and
the UK, principal adaptation aid only 158
Table 5.6 Selection and allocation stage for Germany, Sweden, and
the UK, principal and (discounted) significant adaptation
aid 160
Table A.1 Summary statistics for all variables used in the quantitative
analysis 217
Table A.2 Questions guiding our semi-structured interviews 218

xv
CHAPTER 1

Introduction

Open the newspaper on any given day and you will likely find reports on
devastating weather extremes somewhere on the globe. For instance, in late
September/early October 2016, hurricane Matthew made headlines. In
Haïti, it left more than 500 people dead, tens of thousands homeless, and
hundreds of thousands in need of food assistance (OCHA 2016). Economic
damage across the hurricane’s path through Haïti, Cuba, the Bahamas,
and the USA’s south-eastern coast is estimated at over $8 billion (AIR
Worldwide 2016). In March 2015, tropical cyclone Pam in the Pacific left
the island state of Vanuatu in ruins. While the death toll was thankfully
much lower than in Haïti, with 16 killed, over half of the population was
affected and much of the country’s infrastructure destroyed. Estimated
economic damage reached $450 million—equivalent to 64% of Vanuatu’s
gross domestic product (GDP) (Esler 2015). We could list more extreme
weather events, such as floods and droughts, as well as slow-onset processes
that are less likely to make headlines but are potentially just as devastating,
such as ocean acidification, coral bleaching, or coastal erosion as a result of
sea-level rise.1
The list of climate change impacts is long. While it is impossible
to attribute any single event to global climate change, climate change
does increase the frequency and intensity of weather extremes as well as
contributes to changes like coastal erosion and flooding (IPCC 2014).
Devastating disasters like the ones listed above are likely the ‘new normal’,
a glimpse into ‘a climate future that is less predictable and more extreme’

© The Author(s) 2018 1


C. Betzold and F. Weiler, Development Aid and Adaptation
to Climate Change in Developing Countries,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-64510-0_1
2 1 INTRODUCTION

(Byanyima et al. 2016). Coping with and adapting to this climate future is
becoming more and more important and urgent around the globe—and
nowhere more so than in the countries of the Global South. Developing
countries not only feel the brunt of climate change impacts, as the weather
extremes mentioned earlier illustrate, they also have fewer resources and
less capacity to cope with and adapt to these adverse effects—and they
have at the same time historically contributed the least to anthropogenic
climate change (Mertz et al. 2009).
In light of this ‘double injustice’ of climate change, developed countries
have a moral as well as a legal obligation to help vulnerable develop-
ing countries adapt. The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (the Convention, or UNFCCC) requires developed
countries to assist financially particularly vulnerable developing countries;
more recent agreements, including the 2016 Paris Agreement, confirm this
obligation and specifically call on developed countries to increase the level
of financial assistance for adaptation (see Chap. 2 for a detailed overview).
This is what this book is about: financial support for adaptation to
climate change from developed countries to developing countries. More
specifically, we focus on bilateral official development assistance (ODA)
that targets climate change adaptation in recipient countries—what we call
adaptation aid. As we explain in greater detail below, bilateral adaptation
aid is an important subset of adaptation finance and includes: support for
projects such as building seawalls and (re-)planting mangroves; building
or enhancing rainwater tanks; developing maps of safe areas in the case of
hurricanes and other storms (see Noble et al. 2014, 844ff).
Support for adaptation raises many questions. Which adaptation actions
are funded through international adaptation aid, and why? How effectively
and sustainably do these adaptation actions reduce recipients’ vulnerability
and increase their resilience? How much finance is needed and how much is
available for adaptation measures in developing countries? To what extent
are adaptation (aid) and development (aid) different, and how? How can
we measure and monitor adaptation finance flows? Where does this finance
come from, and where does it go (e.g. Peterson Carvalho and Terpstra
2015)? In this book, we examine this last issue of distribution at the
national level. Which countries receive how much support for adaptation,
and why? How do donors allocate their adaptation aid across recipient
countries? To what extent are the most vulnerable countries prioritised in
adaptation aid allocation, as developed countries agreed and as we would
expect from a climate justice perspective (cf. Barrett 2014)? We address
1.1 DEFINITION OF KEY CONCEPTS 3

these questions through an analysis of bilateral aid that targets adaptation


to climate change, with a focus on three large climate donors: Germany,
Sweden, and the UK.
In the remainder of this introductory chapter, we discuss two key
concepts of this book, namely (i) adaptation to climate change and (ii)
vulnerability and its components of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive
capacity. Both concepts are rather vague and lack a single definition. We
then turn to the question of how much it will cost to adapt to climate
change in developing countries, and where the funding necessary to pay
for this adaptation will come from. We show that putting a price tag on
adaptation is difficult. Despite considerable uncertainty as to the exact
costs, developing countries will likely need tens of billions of dollars every
year to deal with the impacts of climate change. This funding has to
come from various sources, including donors. Developed countries are
morally and legally obliged to support adaptation measures in developing
countries, although the latter also contribute to covering the cost of
adaptation. We will conclude this introductory chapter with an overview
of the individual chapters of this book as well as a summary of its empirical,
theoretical, and policy contributions.

1.1 DEFINITION OF KEY CONCEPTS


Before we move to defining the key concepts of adaptation and vulnera-
bility, let us briefly clarify our aid terminology. In this book, we examine
bilateral ODA, or aid. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-
operation and Development (OECD), aid includes

grants or loans to countries and territories on the DAC List of ODA Recipients
(developing countries) and to multilateral agencies which are: (a) undertaken
by the official sector; (b) with promotion of economic development and
welfare as the main objective; (c) at concessional financial terms (OECD
2016).

We follow the OECD and define developing countries as those countries


eligible to receive aid—that is, countries listed on the OECD Development
Assistance Committee (DAC) List of ODA Recipients. This List includes
countries based on gross national income (GNI) per capita and is revised
every 3 years.2 Countries on the list are potential recipients of adaptation
aid; we consider all others to be developed or industrialised. We include as
4 1 INTRODUCTION

donors only those developed countries that report their ODA to the OECD.

1.1.1 Adaptation to Climate Change


Humans have always adapted to natural climate variability, that is, to
the climatic conditions in which they live. Adaptation to anthropogenic
climate change is different, at least in theory, notably because of different
responsibilities: while adaptation to climate variability falls within the
domestic responsibility of states, adaptation to climate change involves
some level of globally shared responsibility (Burton 2004, 28). In practice,
however, these two types of adaptation are hard to distinguish, particularly
in developing countries, where the adaptation deficit is large: developing
countries are already ill-prepared for current natural climate variability, let
alone for the additional challenges posed by climate change (Burton 2004;
Fankhauser 2010; Weikmans 2012).
How can we deal with climate change and climate variability? We
have already mentioned some examples of concrete adaptation measures:
building seawalls and (re-)planting mangroves, building or enhancing
rainwater tanks, or developing maps of safe areas in the case of hurricanes
and other storms are all measures to deal with different effects of climate
change such as sea-level rise, changes in precipitation and the risk of
drought, or more frequent and more intense weather extremes. More
generally, the IPCC defines adaptation as the ‘process of adjustment to
actual or expected climate and its effects’ (IPCC 2013, 1758). For the
OECD , adaptation activities ‘reduce the vulnerability of human or natural
systems to the impacts of climate change and climate-related risks, by
maintaining or increasing adaptive capacity and resilience’ (OECD 2011, 4).
While mitigation—reducing greenhouse gas emissions—is clearly defined,
there are many ways to conceptualise adaptation (see Adger 2006; Hinkel
2011). This range of conceptualisations is somewhat problematic for the
purpose of this book, as we discuss in Chap. 2.

1.1.2 Vulnerability
The purpose of adaptation is to reduce vulnerability. Just like adaptation,
‘vulnerability’ is complex and contested and has been conceptualised in
different ways (Adger 2006; Füssel 2007; Muccione et al. 2017). Broadly
1.1 DEFINITION OF KEY CONCEPTS 5

vulnerability
+ + –

exposure sensitivity adaptive capacity

mainly related to physical hazards mainly socio-economic

Fig. 1.1 Vulnerability and its components

speaking, vulnerability is the ‘propensity or predisposition to be adversely


affected’ (IPCC 2013, 1775) or the ‘susceptibility to be harmed’ (Adger
2006, 269). The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC adds response
capacity and defines vulnerability to climate change as ‘the propensity of
human and ecological systems to suffer harm and their ability to respond
to stresses imposed as a result of climate change effects’ (IPCC 2007, 720).
Vulnerability has three dimensions: it is a function of a system’s exposure
and sensitivity to perturbations or hazards, as well as the system’s capacity
or resilience to cope with, adapt to, and recover from the effects of these
perturbations or hazards (see Fig. 1.1; Adger 2006; Smit and Wandel
2006). These elements of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity are:
interrelated; vary over time, by type and according to stimulus; and are
place-specific and system-specific (Smit and Wandel 2006, 286f).
Exposure and sensitivity are related concepts; Smit and Wandel (2006,
286) even see them as ‘almost inseparable’. Exposure describes the ‘nature
and degree to which a system experiences environmental or socio-political
stress’, while sensitivity is ‘the degree to which a system is modified or
affected by perturbations’ (Adger 2006, 270). More specifically for climate
change, the IPCC defines exposure as the ‘presence of people, livelihoods,
species or ecosystems, environmental functions, services, and resources,
infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets in places and settings
that could be adversely affected’ and sensitivity as the ‘degree to which a
system or species is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate
variability or change’ (IPCC 2013, 1765; 1772; emphasis added). As
Gallopín (2006, 296) highlights, sensitivity is an attribute of the system
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