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SURFING UNCERTAINTY
Surfing Uncertainty
Prediction, Action,
and the Embodied Mind
Andy Clark
OXFORD
UNIVERSITY PRESS
OXFORD
UNIVERSITY PRESS
With offices in
Argentina Austria Brazil Chile CzechRepublic France Greece
Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore
South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam
987654321
Printed in the United States of America
on acid-free paper
For Christine Clark and Alexa Morcom
Encoder, Decoder, and Everything in Betweer
Contents
1. Prediction Machines 13
1.1 Two Ways to Sense the Coffee 13
1.2 Adopting the Animal’s Perspective 14
13 Learning in Bootstrap Heaven 1
1.4 Multilevel Learning 19
1.5 Decoding Digits 22
1.6 Dealing with Structure 23
17 Predictive Processing 25
1.8 Signalling the News 28
1.9 Predicting Natural Scenes 29
1.10 Binocular Rivalry 33
1.11 Suppression and Selective Enhancement 37
1.12 Encoding, Inference, and the Bayesian Brain 39
1.13 Getting the Gist 41
1.14 Predictive Processing in the Brain 43
vii
CONTENTS
. The Imaginarium 84
3.1 Construction Industries 84
3.2 Simple Seeing 8y
33 Cross-Modal and Multimodal effects 86
3.4 Meta-Modal Effects 87
35 Perceiving Omissions 89
3.6 Expectations and Conscious Perception g2
3.7 The Perceiver as Imaginer 93
3.8 ‘Brain Reading’ During Imagery and Perception 94
3.9 Inside the Dream Factory 98
3.10 PIMMS and the Past 102
311 Towards Mental Time Travel 104
3.12 A Cognitive Package Deal 107
I: EMBODYING PREDICTION
Notes 307
References 329
Index 377
Preface: Meat That Predicts
xiii
Xiv PREFACE: MEAT THAT PREDICTS
be used gradually to install the very models that will enable the pre-
dictions to succeed. The prediction task, as we shall see, is thus a
kind of ‘bootstrap heaven’.
Meat like this is imagining and dreaming meat too. Such meat
becomes able to drive its own internal states ‘from the top-down’
using the knowledge and connections that enable it to match incom-
ing sensory data with structured predictions. And meat that dreams
and imagines is (potentially at least) meat that can harnass its imag-
inings to reason—to think about what actions it might, or might
not, perform. The upshot is a compelling ‘cognitive package deal” in
which perception, imagination, understanding, reasoning, and action
are co-emergent from the whirrings and grindings of the predictive,
uncertainty-estimating, brain. Creatures that perceive and act on the
basis of such subterranean flows of prediction are active, knowledge-
able, imaginative beings in rich cognitive contact with a structured and
meaningful world. That world is a world made of patterns of expecta-
tion: a world in which unexpected absences are as perceptually salient
as any concrete event, and in which all our mental states are coloured
by delicate estimations of our own uncertainty.
To complete the picture, however, we must locate the inner pre-
diction engine in its proper home. That home—as the surfing image
is also meant to powerfully suggest—is a mobile embodied agent
located in multiple empowering webs of material and social struc-
ture. To make full and satisfying contact with the thinking and rea-
soning of agents like us, we must factor in the myriad effects of the
complex social and physical ‘designer environments’ in which we
learn, act, and reason. Without this environment, our kind of selec-
tive response to the world could never emerge or be maintained. It is
the predictive brain operating in rich bodily, social, and technologi-
cal context that ushers minds like ours into the material realm. Here
especially, the focus on prediction pays rich dividends, offering new
and potent tools for thinking about the moment-by-moment orches-
tration of neural, bodily, and environmental resources into effective
transient problem-solving coalitions. By the end of our story, the pre-
dictive brain will stand revealed not as an insulated inner ‘inference
engine’ but an action-oriented engagement machine—an enabling
(albeit, as it happens, meaty) node in patterns of dense reciprocal
exchange binding brain, body, and world.
AC
Edinburgh, 2015
Acknowledgements
This book has benefitted enormously from the help and advice of a
large number of people. Very particular thanks go to Karl Friston,
Jakob Hohwy, Bill Phillips, and Anil Seth. Your patience and encour-
agement made this whole project possible. Also to Lars Muckli, Peggy
Series, Andreas Roepstorff, Chris Thornton, Chris Williams, Liz Irvine,
Matteo Colombo, and all the participants at the Predictive Coding
Workshop (School of Informatics, University of Edinburgh, January
2010); to Phil Gerrans, Nick Shea, Mark Sprevak, Aaron Sloman, and
the participants at the first meeting of the UK Mind Network held at
the Faculty of Philosophy, Oxford University, March 2010; to Markus
Werning, Albert Newen, and the organizers and participants of the 2010
meeting of the European Society for Philosophy and Psychology, held
at Ruhr-Universitdit Bochum, August 2010; to Nihat Ay, Ray Guillery,
Bruno Olshausen, Murray Sherman, Fritz Sommer, and the participants
at the Perception & Action Workshop, Santa Fe Institute, New Mexico,
September 2010; to Daniel Dennett, Rosa Cao, Justin Junge, and Amber
Ross (captain and crew of the hurricane-Irene-blocked 2011 Cognitive
Cruise); to Miguel Eckstein, Mike Gazzaniga, Michael Rescorla, and
the faculty and students at the Sage Center for the Study of Mind,
University of California, Santa Barbara, where, as a Visiting Fellow in
September 2011, I was privileged to road-test much of this material; toall
xvii
xviii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Guessing Games
This is a book about how creatures like us get to know the world and
to act in it. At the heart of such knowing engagements lies (if these sto-
ries are on track) a simple but remarkably powerful trick or stratagem.
That trick is trying to guess the incoming sensory stmulations as they
arrive, using what you know about the world. Failed guesses generate
‘prediction errors’ that are then used to recruit new and better guesses,
or to inform slower processes of learning and plasticity. Rooted in the
dynamics of self-organization, these ‘predictive processing’ (PP) mod-
els deliver compelling accounts of perception, action, and imagina-
tive simulation. They deliver new accounts of the nature and structure
of human experience. And they place centre stage a self-fuelling cycle
of circular causal commerce in which action continuously selects new
sensory stimulations, folding in environmental structure and opportu-
nities along the way. PP thus provides, or so I will argue, the perfect
neuro-computational partner for recent work on the embodied mind—
work that stresses the constant engagement of the world by cycles of
perceptuo-motor activity. The predictive brain, if this is correct, is not an
insulated inference engine so much as an action-oriented engagement
machine. It is an engagement-machine, moreover, that is perfectly posi-
tioned to select frugal, action-based routines that reduce the demands
on neural processing and deliver fast, fluent forms of adaptive success.
1
2 INTRODUCTION
Most masters who have left the world richer for having lived, were
born in poverty and knew the sorrows of privation, not so with Felix
Mendelssohn-Bartholdy (1809–1847), loved by the many who have
played his Songs Without Words, or who have heard Elman’s fingers
fly over his violin in the concerto, said to be the best writing ever
done for that instrument.
Popular as are many works from the polished and fluent pen of
Mendelssohn, the oratorios Elijah and Saint Paul are noble for these
contain some of the most dramatic and inspired writing. In that work
which is typical of Mendelssohn and his personality, he showed more
characteristics of the older classical school than of the romantic. If he
had lived during the classical period he would have been a greater
composer, for he was romantic by influence and classic in taste.
Has not the Spring Song the shimmer of spring and the Spinning
Song the whir of the wheels? One can easily imagine the kindly touch
of a loving hand in Consolation, while the Hunting Song is alive and
going. This is the romantic music that became the model for
thousands of small pieces.
It in said frequently that if Mendelssohn had been less
conventional, his work would have been more forceful, because he
had much that was truly fine.
Mendelssohn lived among the most brilliant literary lights of his
day. His refinement was reflected in his music. He was petted by an
adoring father, mother and sisters, who gave him every opportunity
to study and compose, and he was much sought after socially. He
devoted much time to the study of languages, sketching in water
colors and traveling in Italy and Switzerland. His sister Fanny, whose
musical education was of the utmost assistance to her brother whom
she idolized, would have been famous but for her father’s prejudice
against women in professional life. She was a gifted composer and it
is claimed that she wrote many of her brother’s songs and some of
the Songs Without Words.
Her death was a mortal blow from which Mendelssohn never
recovered. Extremely sensitive, his affection for his family was most
intense and filled his life.
His grandfather was the eminent philosopher Moses Mendelssohn,
who being a Hebrew, was open to the sorrows caused by prejudice.
He was such a great man, however, that he succeeded in breaking
down barriers not only for himself, but for his race.
Abraham Mendelssohn was pleased to call himself, “First the son
of the famous Moses Mendelssohn, then the father of the eminent
Felix Mendelssohn.” His banking house in Berlin is still in the family.
The most noted musicians and artists were entertained in the
Mendelssohn home, and heard the compositions of the gifted young
man. In 1821 the boy was taken to Goethe’s home where he played
and improvised for the poet. He was delighted with him for his
musical talent, and because he had inherited the gift of conversation
and letters from his grandfather, of whom Goethe was very fond.
Young Mendelssohn never shocked the great old poet as did
Beethoven, for his manner was always correct.
In 1825 Mendelssohn went to Paris to Cherubini who was asked
whether his talent justified cultivation beyond the average stage. The
master was very enthusiastic, but his father would not leave him in
Paris, even in charge of the noted teacher. Returning to Berlin he
wrote the overture to Midsummer Night’s Dream (1826). It reflects
the dancing elves and the humor of Shakespeare, while the orchestra
has a delicate touch, similar to that shown by Berlioz at the same
period. Mendelssohn was only seventeen when he wrote it, with all
its finish and its flawless musical treatment. Much that he did at that
period shows his natural flow of genius. Music seemed to gush from
his soul like pure, fresh water from a spring, making one think of
cool fountains, sparkling with melody and clarity. These qualities are
also in the Fingal’s Cave or Hebrides overture, and he takes you on
his delightful trips in Calm Sea and Prosperous Voyage. The way
these numbers reflect his impressions and the way he transmitted
them to others is typical of the Romantic School. The purity of his
musical form related him to the classical and gave inklings of the
Symphonic Tone Poem.
In his symphonies Mendelssohn also told tales of his travels, as in
the Italian Symphony, and in his Scotch Symphony in which he
made use of Scotch folk tunes. He also wrote much chamber music.
He left some piano concertos which may not attract the professionals
of today but are the joy of many piano students who play them
arranged for two pianos.
Mendelssohn tried operas but like many others failed to find a
good libretto. This was the trouble with one he produced in Berlin.
Added to this there were many intrigues and jealousies at the opera
house which turned him bitterly against that city.
However, he accomplished one of the greatest things ever done for
music. The works of Bach and Handel had been so neglected that
they were almost forgotten. He knew them well, and wanting others
to love them as he did, he assembled a great chorus and gave Bach’s
Passion according to Saint Matthew. This was the first performance
since Bach’s death, and it brought these works back to us. Imagine
Mendelssohn’s popularity and talent as a conductor to have been
able to do this at the age of twenty! Then he traveled again, and after
roaming through Italy, Switzerland and France, he went to London
where he created a stir as pianist, composer and conductor. Besides
his splendid education he had a winsome and attractive personality,
and his success was very great. He made, in all, nine visits to
England.
Having been brought up in the Christian faith, he married the
daughter of a French Protestant minister and had five children. They
went to live in Germany and becoming conductor of the Leipsic
Gewandhaus orchestra, he made the city the musical center of
Germany. He founded the Leipsic Conservatory of Music (1843),
where he gave his old teacher Moscheles an important post. This
conservatory is well known here for many American musicians of the
last generation were educated there.
Mendelssohn conducted many festivals and he always aroused new
interest in Bach, whom he presented at every opportunity.
His Saint Paul had success in Duesseldorf (1837), and during his
last visit to England (1846), he gave at the Birmingham festival
Elijah, second today in popularity only to Handel’s Messiah.
When Mendelssohn returned to Leipsic, he showed traces of
overwork and the death of his sister coming at the same time, made
him unable to resist the strain. He died November 4, 1847, when only
38. His happy life shines through his music so full of beauty and
sunshine.
Schumann—The Supreme Poet
Franz Schubert.
After the Painting
by Bendemann.
Robert Schumann.
Felix Mendelssohn-Bartholdy.
After the Painting
by F. V. Delacroix.
Frédéric Chopin.
(Romantic School.)
After a painting by
Lenbach.
Richard Wagner, the Wizard, called out of the past a vast company
of gods and goddesses, giants, knights and heroes, kings and queens.
He made them live for us with all their joys and sorrows, loves and
hates, in his great music dramas, for which he has been recognized as
one of the rare geniuses of the world.
Evoked by his music-magic they pass before us,—the gods and
heroes of Walhalla,—Wotan, Brünnhilde, valiant Siegfried, Pfafner
the giant who is turned into a dragon, Mime the dwarf, the Rhine
Maidens and the Valkyries; Parsifal the guileless youth who became
the Knight of the Holy Grail, and Lohengrin his son, the beautiful
knight who marries Elsa, a lady of rank of the Middle Ages.
We see the minnesingers Tannhäuser and Wolfram von
Eschenbach in one of their famous Minstrel Tournaments with the
hand of the lovely Elizabeth as a prize; we also meet the lovable
shoemaker-mastersinger Hans Sachs in Nüremberg, of the 16th
century, and David his merry apprentice, lovely Eva Pogner and the
charming knight Walter von Stolzing, and Beckmesser the clownish
mastersinger; then there are the imperious Irish Queen, Isolde and
Tristan, her lover, with Kurvenal his faithful servant. Wagner makes
not only the mythological persons relive but he brings back realistic
pictures of the everyday life and customs of the German people of the
Middle Ages.
Wagner had his idea of what opera should be and nothing short of
his ideal interested him. He kept to his purpose and accomplished
miraculous things whether he suffered or starved or was banished
from his country.
Richard was born at a time, favorable for hearing and knowing the
Viennese composers of the 18th and early 19th centuries, who had
increased the importance of the orchestra. He could hear too the
music of Schumann and Schubert, with all the new beauty and warm
feeling they radiated. This new depth appeared not only in the
orchestra but also in piano and vocal music. In Wagner’s time,
people felt deeply about everything,—science, philosophy, literature,
and especially politics; and many were the quarrels and discontents
among nations. Even our own country was torn by a cruel war.
Wagner listened to the works of Mozart and of Beethoven, whom
he admired immensely. He approved of Beethoven’s use of the
chorus in the Ninth Symphony, which had no little effect on his work
and ideals.
Among the people who most influenced Wagner was Gluck, who
first fought for sincerity and truth in opera drama. Gluck did not
have the advantage of the grown up orchestra and freer forms, yet
Gluck did so much to free opera that Wagner was fortunate indeed to
have come after him. Another great influence was Weber, who mixed
everyday story in a delightful play of fancy and picturesqueness.
Wagner, after hearing Weber’s Die Freischütz, was very much
impressed.
Meyerbeer, a contemporary, although rather artificial and always
working for effects, nevertheless showed Wagner the value of
gorgeous scenic productions. Wagner was fond of the stage, and
Meyerbeer’s big scenes sank into the mind of the young composer-
poet, who liked to be called a poet rather than a musician!
Musically, Franz Liszt was probably the greatest influence in
Wagner’s life and we often hear in Wagner’s works bits of melody
which remind us of Liszt.
It is not fair to say that he was great just because he followed
Gluck, Weber, and Mozart, for he brought music out of its old ruts
and was copied by hundreds of composers.
The hero of this chapter was born in Leipsic in 1813 and was the
youngest of nine children. His father died shortly after his birth and
his mother married an actor playwright named Geyer and they all
went to live in Dresden. His stepfather felt that Richard had musical
gifts and he proved a very kind and wise parent. He died when the
boy was only eight.
Richard must have been a most interesting little chap, for he
always did everything with what we would call “pep” and persistence.
He loved poetry and was devoted to the theatre. His stepfather had
always allowed him to go “back stage” at the playhouse, so the youth
became familiar with stage craft, which he used later in producing
his music dramas.
He read the Greek and German poets and dramatists at a very
early age. He was the first of the musical geniuses to be trained in the
arts before he started music. So we can picture a little chap, “stage-
struck,” studying when he should, seeing plays when he could, and
listening to the works of Weber and Beethoven which enchanted
him, and storing up ideas, but as yet showing no great leaning
toward music as a profession.
The family moved back to Leipsic in 1827 where he went to school
until he entered the university in 1831. He heard much orchestral
music and became so deeply charmed with Beethoven, that he copied
the Ninth Symphony from a score, to become familiar with it. The
Ninth Symphony with chorale takes about two hours to perform,
imagine how long it took to copy it! An instance of the wizard’s
energy and “stick-to-it-iveness”!