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DCF modelling - 13
DCF modelling - 13
DCF modelling - 13
Peer Comps
Debt/ Debt/ Levered Unlevered
Name Country Total Debt Total Equity Tax Rate 1 Equity Capital Beta 2 Beta 3
Avenue Super. India 710.8 228,379.5 30.00% 0.31% 0.31% 1.24 1.24
Trent India 4,526.0 47,567.8 30.00% 9.51% 8.69% 1.40 1.31
Vedant Fashions India 248.9 28,378.3 30.00% 0.88% 0.87% 1.37 1.36
Aditya Bir. Fas. India 4,617.6 23,395.4 30.00% 19.74% 16.48% 1.23 1.08
Metro Brands India 805.5 23,076.6 30.00% 3.49% 3.37% 1.41 1.38
1. Tax Rate considered as Marginal Tax Rate for the country Cost of Equity 20.88%
2. Levered Beta is based on 5 year monthly data Equity Weight 94.06%
3. Unlevered Beta = Levered Beta/(1+(1-Tax Rate) x Debt/Equity)
3. Levered Beta = Unlevered Beta/(1+(1-Tax Rate) x Debt/Equity) Cost of Debt 6.80%
Debt Weight 5.94%
WACC 20.04%
Regression Beta - 2 Years Weekly
ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 1 0.064480852 0.06448085
Residual 102 0.182379622 0.00178804
Total 103 0.246860473
Year Annual
2000 -14.65% Average Return 15.41%
2001 -16.18% Dividend Yield 1.39% 1
2002 3.25% Total Market Returns 15.41%
2003 71.90%
2004 10.68%
2005 36.34%
2006 39.83%
2007 54.77%
2008 -51.79%
2009 75.76%
2010 17.95%
2011 -24.62%
2012 27.70%
2013 6.76%
2014 31.39%
2015 -4.06%
2016 3.01%
2017 28.65%
2018 3.15%
2019 12.02%
2020 14.17%
2021 24.12%
2022 4.32%
Calculation of ROIC Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
Current Assets
Inventories 2,658.0 3,150.0 3,390.0 3,799.0
Trade receivables 1,731.0 1,907.0 1,795.0 2,602.0
Loans n Advances 1,141.0 1,058.0 1,177.0 1,846.0
Other asset items 551.0 414.0 561.0 720.0
Total Current Assets 6,081.0 6,529.0 6,923.0 8,967.0
Current Liabilities
Trade Payables 2,160.0 2,394.0 2,137.0 3,379.0
Advance from Customers 16.0 13.0 29.0 41.0
Other liability items 2,316.0 2,690.0 2,320.0 2,613.0
Total Current Liabilities 4,492.0 5,097.0 4,486.0 6,033.0
4 Year Average
4 Year Median
4 Year Average
4 Year Median
Mar-22
6,153.0
3,871.0
2,216.0
661.0
12,901.0
4,164.0
76.0
2,932.0
7,172.0
5,729.0
644.0
2,325.0
4,531.0
253.0
113.0
32.0
411.0
294.0
8,603.0
(3,085.0)
5,518.0
11,247.0
3,987.2
35.45%
Mar-22
498.0
2,795.0
3,987.2
25.00%
2,990.4
3,293.0
110.12%
57.60%
47.82%
Mar-22
110.12%
35.45%
39.04%
21.94%
18.66%
Calculation of PV of FCFF Mar/22A Mar/23F Mar/24F Mar/25F
PV of FCFF 9,064.46
PV of Terminal Value 14,991.57
Value of Operating Assets 24,056.03
8,990.32 10,855.81
25.00% 25.00%
6,742.74 8,141.85
49.14% 49.14%
3,429.36 4,140.95
3.5 4.5
0.528 0.440
1,809.51 1,820.20
Historical Financial Statement - ASIAN PAI
Years Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
# Income Statement
Sales ₹ 10,503.9 ₹ 12,220.4 ₹ 13,615.3 ₹ 14,271.5
Sales Growth - 16.34% 11.41% 4.82%
META
Number of shares 95.92
Face Value 1
Current Price 2855.15
Market Capitalization 273865.36
Quarters
Report Date Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21
Sales 5350.23 6788.47 6651.43 5585.36 7096.01
Expenses 4085.03 5000.58 5333.17 4674.32 6191.56
Other Income 94.41 123.17 81.26 89.61 148.4
Depreciation 193.58 193.17 213.35 200.59 202.75
Interest 20.51 21.13 29.86 21.48 23.86
Profit before tax 1145.52 1696.76 1156.31 778.58 826.24
Tax 293.62 431.41 286.42 204.28 221.07
Net profit 830.37 1238.34 852.13 568.5 595.96
Operating Profit 1265.2 1787.89 1318.26 911.04 904.45
EBITDA 1,338.08 1,884.05 1,381.76 994.85 1,043.64
BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 95.92 95.92 95.92 95.92 95.92
Reserves 3288.37 3943.3 4646.44 6428.9 7507.97
Borrowings 250.96 249.15 418.17 323.29 560.34
Other Liabilities 3149.25 3787.03 3753.97 3710.92 4240.96
Total 6784.5 8075.4 8914.5 10559.03 12405.19
Net Block 2440.97 2561.58 2660.04 3416.35 3303.74
Capital Work in Progress 59.21 71.6 196 106.59 257.54
Investments 295.68 1423.55 1587.79 2712.13 2651.99
Other Assets 3988.64 4018.67 4470.67 4323.96 6191.92
Total 6784.5 8075.4 8914.5 10559.03 12405.19
Receivables 980.88 1110.3 1182.07 1186.84 1446.6
Inventory 1830.29 2069.86 2258.52 1998.24 2626.94
Cash & Bank 736.69 229 204.39 424.2 801.21
No. of Equity Shares 95919779 959197800 959197790 959197790 959197790
New Bonus Shares
Face value 10 1 1 1 1
CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Cash from Operating Activity 1186.79 1402.03 1187.69 2242.95 1527.33
Cash from Investing Activity -463.2 -585.99 -464.99 -866.21 -681.11
Cash from Financing Activity -601 -625.91 -576.09 -848.98 -756.43
Net Cash Flow 122.59 190.13 146.61 527.76 89.79
DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 95.92 95.92 95.92 95.92 95.92
PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET
2,918.79
Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
16824.55 19240.13 20211.25 21712.79 29101.28
8128.17 9974.4 9981.99 10425.55 17123.25
-142.13 293.26 239.15 92.45 1324.97
110.3 119.63 97.79 86.05 117.23
1691.68 1862.35 1946.12 2068.31 2880.45
1121.89 1242.69 1371.27 1547.61 1794.61
2254.92 2366.87 2311.51 2245.69 2941.98
171.45 202.51 584.9 576.43 765.12
336.41 273.77 355.05 331.65 295.88
360.47 622.14 780.5 791.27 816.36
41.47 110.47 102.33 91.63 95.41
3138.48 3306.1 3629.04 4304.35 4187.72
1040.96 1098.06 854.85 1097.6 1102.91
2038.93 2155.92 2705.17 3139.29 3030.57
834.5 1007.16 1151.04 1712.17 1836.87
33% 33% 24% 25% 26%
1 1 1 1 1
2,969.43 -16.15 -198.09 -125.41
Fixed Assets -
Land 220.0 225.0 238.0 247.0 251.0 429.0
Building 553.0 573.0 874.0 931.0 962.0 923.0
Plant Machinery 1,011.0 1,070.0 1,956.0 2,054.0 2,132.0 1,793.0
Equipments 66.0 79.0 137.0 155.0 171.0 97.0
Furniture n fittings 45.0 50.0 57.0 71.0 83.0 49.0
Vehicles 9.0 11.0 11.0 14.0 18.0 11.0
Intangible Assets 59.0 53.0 57.0 203.0 351.0 339.0
Other fixed assets 62.0 84.0 99.0 128.0 145.0 103.0
Gross Block 2,025.0 2,146.0 3,429.0 3,804.0 4,112.0 3,744.0
Accumulated Depreciation 704.0 834.0 979.0 1,223.0 1,438.0 275.0
Net Block 1,321.0 1,312.0 2,450.0 2,581.0 2,674.0 3,469.0
Other Assets -
Inventories 1,305.0 1,599.0 1,830.0 2,070.0 2,259.0 1,998.0
Trade receivables 573.0 781.0 981.0 1,110.0 1,182.0 1,187.0
Cash Equivalents 626.0 624.0 737.0 229.0 204.0 424.0
Loans n Advances 229.0 249.0 353.0 496.0 574.0 606.0
Other asset items 94.0 186.0 87.0 113.0 252.0 109.0
Total Assets 4,611.0 5,712.0 6,784.0 8,075.0 8,914.0 10,559.0
Cash from Operating Activity - 762 710 1,187 1,402 1,188 2,243
Profit from operations 1,331 1,539 1,784 2,051 2,271 2,848
Receivables -82 -305 -299 -254 -155 -146
Inventory -350 -293 -247 -231 -144 202
Payables 255 188 388 317 -151 142
Other WC items 0 0 0 0 0 0
Working capital changes -176 -410 -159 -168 -450 198
Direct taxes -392 -430 -438 -480 -633 -802
Exceptional CF items 0 10 0 0 0 0
Cash from Investing Activity - -439 -386 -463 -586 -465 -866
Fixed assets purchased -156 -546 -644 -251 -454 -817
Fixed assets sold 6 6 7 16 16 15
Investments purchased -336 -290 -247 -872 -243 -282
Investments sold 0 398 330 463 278 205
Interest received 10 6 11 14 11 15
Dividends received 35 42 33 65 71 69
Redemp n Canc of Shares 0 0 0 0 0 0
Acquisition of companies 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other investing items 2 -1 46 -21 -144 -70
Cash from Financing Activity - -334 -327 -601 -626 -576 -849
Proceeds from borrowings 12 109 33 44 239 8
Repayment of borrowings -6 -12 -135 -81 -86 -119
Interest paid fin -23 -40 -37 -42 -35 -40
Dividends paid -317 -383 -462 -547 -695 -764
Financial liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other financing items 0 0 0 0 0 66
Net Cash Flow -11 -2 123 190 147 528
Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22