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ASIA TODAY
THE
FUTURE OF
EAST ASIA
Edited by
Peter Hayes and Chung-In Moon
Asia Today
Series Editors
Takashi Inoguchi
University of Niigata Prefecture
Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan
G. John Ikenberry
Woodrow Wilson School
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ, USA
Seen from the perspectives of political economy, political security, and
political culture, Asia offers fascinating opportunities for political and
international studies because of concurrent changes internally and exter-
nally. The tide of globalization and digitalization leads comparative politics
and international relations to be examined together. Interdisciplinary
approaches will be just as fruitful as those from traditional disciplines. This
series examines Asia to its fullest extent, covering East Asia, Southeast Asia,
South Asia, Central Asia, and West Asia (including Iran, Iraq, the Gulf
States, and Turkey).
Editors
Asia Today
ISBN 978-981-10-4976-7 ISBN 978-981-10-4977-4 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-4977-4
Library of Congress Control Number: 2017947751
The Future of East Asia had its genesis in 2005 when the East Asia
Foundation was founded by Mong-koo Chung, Chairman of Hyundai
Motor Group. Like the Foundation, the book aims to facilitate the for-
mation of an East Asian Community by promoting networks that exchange
ideas and sustain direct relationships.
The Foundation realizes this vision by shaping the annual Jeju Forum
for Peace and Prosperity. The premier event of its kind in the Republic of
Korea, the forum brings together thousands of movers and shakers from
the region and the world. It also publishes Global Asia, An East Asia
Foundation Journal an influential scholarly journal with a policy bent with
a circulation of more than 7000 readers. The authors of the essays par-
ticipated in these activities and met twice while producing this book.
We intended that The Future of East Asia would celebrate the
Foundation’s tenth anniversary. But books invariably take longer than
planned and, because we wanted only the best contributors, this one was
no exception. It would have been impossible without more than two years
of hard work by the Foundation’s staff, led by its Executive Director
Hyung Taek Hong, with the strong support of now Honorary Chairman
Mong-koo Chung, Chairman Ro-myung Gong, and members of the board
of trustees.
Along the way, we also benefited from the active support of East Asia
Foundation Program Officers Chan Koo Kang and Yoon Hee Shin and
interns Yeonsu Kim and Haeun Choi, East Asia Foundation and Global
Asia fellows, respectively.
v
vi PREFACE
vii
viii CONTENTS
Index 309
EDITORS AND CONTRIBUTORS
ix
x EDITORS AND CONTRIBUTORS
Contributors
Choong Yong Ahn is chair of the Korea Commission for Corporate
Partnership and a distinguished professor of Economics at Chung-Ang
University. While on sabbatical from Chung-Ang University, he also served
as a visiting professor at the Economic Research Institute, Kyoto
University, the president of the Korea Institute for International Economic
Policy (2002–2005), chair of the APEC Economic Committee, and con-
sultant to the World Bank. He also served as president of several academic
societies in Korea including the Korea International Economics Association
and the Korea Econometric Society.
Muthiah Alagappa is visiting professor at the Asia Europe Institute in
University Malaya, Kuala Lumpur. Concurrently he is a distinguished
scholar in residence at American University and non-resident senior asso-
ciate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, both in
Washington, D.C. Previously he was the inaugural holder of the Tun
Hussein Onn Chair in International Studies at ISIS Malaysia. Prior to that,
he was Distinguished Senior Fellow and director of Studies at the
East-West Centre Honolulu and founding director of East-West Centre
Washington. He has also been a visiting professor at Columbia University,
Stanford University, Keio University (Tokyo), Nanyang Technological
University (Singapore), Bristol University, and Victoria University
(Wellington, New Zealand).
Nayan Chanda is the founder and former editor in-chief of YaleGlobal
and currently its consulting editor. He is Associate Professor of
International Relations at Ashoka University, Sonepat, India. He is a for-
mer correspondent and editor of the Far Eastern Economic Review and is
the author of “Bound Together: How Traders, Preachers, Adventurers and
Warriors Shaped Globalization,” and “Brother Enemy: The War After the
War.” He is also co-author of a number of books on Southeast Asian affairs
and globalization.
G. John Ikenberry is the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and
International Affairs at Princeton University in the Department of Politics
and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. He is
also co-director of Princeton’s Center for International Security Studies.
EDITORS AND CONTRIBUTORS xi
Fig. 6.1 Global Value Chains in Northeast Asia: The Case of Fuji Xerox 143
Fig. 6.2 Convergence of US-anchored TPP and China-led RCEP 150
xiii
LIST OF TABLES
xv
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
This book presents the imagining of an East Asian Community (EAC) by a
number of senior scholars with diverse backgrounds—each informed by
their life experience grounded in different parts of Asia and, at various
times, in different sectors, be it in government, in the market, or in civil
society. Although an East Asian Community is clearly more of an ideal
image than real today, it already exists in some respects, is prefigured in
aspirational ways in others, but is denied absolutely in still other aspects of
how states and people conduct their affairs. Moreover, we recognize the
glimpses described in this book of a hypothetical EAC are just that—the
capturing of one aspect, from one angle, from one life experience, of a
possible EAC. These ideas are worth considering, nonetheless, because
ideas may be hugely influential, sometimes almost instantly, if incorporated
into individual, community, and national identities.
P. Hayes (&)
Nautilus Institute, Berkeley, CA, USA
C.I. Moon
Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea
Also, we note upfront that while the core insights offered by the authors
of this book are deep and broad in their respective areas, they do not reflect
the full diversity of views in the region. There are important voices that are
not found in this book—those of indigenous peoples, islanders, youth,
refugees, and many border-crossing individuals who live in the region, but
also elsewhere, often at the same time. We do not apologize for these
limitations. We simply draw the reader’s attention to them because these
voices must be heard, too, if the EAC is to ever grip the imaginations of all
the necessary players in this region and become a social, cultural, and
institutional reality.
That said we believe the core issues analyzed in this book are those that
will shape the form, content, and structure of a full-blown EAC, no matter
what configuration it takes in the long run. But before we turn to this
prefigured ideal image of the EAC—or rather, the multiple images of it
presented in this book—we must first deal with the issue of “region.”
to play a central role in almost all global issues. No global issues can be
understood, and no global problem can be solved, without comprehending
the Asian dimension. But Global Asia does not refer to a region or
sub-region with a shared identity any more than its predecessor, One Asia.
In contrast, South Asia, for all its division and conflict, has its regional
institutions such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
(SAARC) that have begun to take deep root, even if the major states in the
region can bypass them at will. And Southeast Asia has its own sub-regional
organizations led by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or
ASEAN. But Northeast Asia does not have such a regional entity in spite of
a burgeoning set of regional meetings, communication, and coordination
activities between national officials; a profound con-joining of the econo-
mies of China, Japan, and the ROK, as well as with the global economy; and
limited but important common security agendas and even political-
diplomatic coordination, as has occurred in response to the DPRK’s
nuclear threat. And, as Chung-In Moon points out in Chap. 10, an East
Asian community is inconceivable until Northeast Asia brings regional
political institutions into being on par with SAARC and ASEAN. Equally,
he suggests, trends within East Asia as a whole may stimulate and induce
Northeast Asian states to innovate and then formalize sub-regional insti-
tutions in a dialectical process.
remain the framework in which states conduct their affairs, both security and
economic, and thereby remain constrained by it even if they contest ele-
ments of it, or confront each other over specific security or economic issues.
With no other option, states will start to conduct multilateral governance
over issues that divide in this region because the costs of not doing so will
exceed the costs of jettisoning the old order. How they do this will make the
region more or less stable, more or less orderly, more or less prosperous, and
more or less secure. There are many possible regional futures in which the
liberal international order may and likely will be sustained. In short,
Ikenberry anticipates that some form of multilateral muddling through will
predominate.
What is clear is the notion that China will somehow become a regionally
dominant state and threaten this order due to its growing military and
economic power is false, both factually and in conception. As Zhang
Ruizhuang demonstrates irrefutably in Chap. 3, China’s primary concern is
the consolidation of its domestic order, both political and economic, while
ensuring that its external security environment remains conducive to this
process. Of course, where its vital security interests, most critically in the
Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan Straits, are threatened, China will muster
all its military capabilities to deter or compel its adversaries and third parties
from acting in ways that put this domestic transition at risk. Zhang holds
that the future of the entire region, including the possibility of creating an
EAC, is determined by the unfolding logic of power politics, not the effects
of shared ideas, beliefs, norms, and institutions.
Conversely, Zhang asserts that enduring poverty, misleading statistics
about Chinese economic growth rate, its military expenditure, mistaking
quantitative for qualitative growth, ecological degradation, and social and
political inequality, all suggest that China is not as strong and powerful as it
may appear. Moreover, much of China’s military capability is invested in
strengthening domestic security, and it confronts daunting domestic social,
economic, and ecological threats that will consume much of its growth
potential in the coming decades. These latter concerns also threaten the
legitimacy of the leadership, which in turn may exploit popular perceptions
of external threats to displace discontent and disenchantment with the one
party ruling system. For all these reasons, China will remain a distant
second power to the United States, which will remain dominant, albeit a
declining hegemon forced to share more power with its allies and willing to
accommodate China where its new capabilities cannot be blocked—as in
coastal regions or infrastructural investment. How the United States
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thoroughly roused, and that he was by far the more incensed of the
two.
“Lady Fairfax,” he said with emphatic distinctness, “permit me to
delay you for one moment,” interposing himself between her and the
door. “I quite enter into your wishes. The sooner we part the better. I
will have no wife who suspects and despises me. A woman holding
such views of my character I have no desire to see again. A wife
who is ready to cast me off on the smallest and most unfounded
suspicion—who does not even grant me a chance of proving my
innocence—but tries, convicts, and condemns me unheard, is no
wife for me except in name. I shall make all arrangements for your
comfort, but I cannot bring myself to discuss them now. You can
remain here till our future plans are arranged. Your father’s daughter
occupies the same position beneath this roof as did my mother,
although you may pretend to think otherwise. Had I been as wise a
year ago as I am now, your father’s daughter would never have been
my wife.”
Taking up the certificate and the ring, he turned and walked out of
the room without another word.
On his way across the hall he was waylaid by Geoffrey, who
sprang on him from the billiard-room and seized him by the arm,
saying:
“Well, Rex, I suppose she has told you?”
“She has,” replied Reginald, shaking him off impatiently as he
entered the library and threw himself into an armchair.
“I don’t believe one word of it, mind you, Rex; and as for Alice, she
is nothing but a silly girl, with a hot temper. It all blows over. I know
her rages well,” he added consolingly.
“Don’t talk to me now, there’s a good fellow,” returned Sir
Reginald, jumping up and pacing the room. “Run down and tell them
to bring round ‘Dragon’ and the dog-cart, and to put in my
portmanteau just as it came.”
“Why so, in the name of all that’s mad?”
“I’m off to London by the mail.”
“Are you in your sober senses, Reginald?” exclaimed Geoffrey,
looking at him aghast.
“I scarcely know,” he returned, wearily passing his hand across his
forehead; “but I am quite certain of one thing, and that is, that Alice
and I have parted for ever.”
CHAPTER VII.
WESSEX GARDENS.
Mrs. Mayhew was most decidedly the clever woman of the family.
Not only had she brains, but an unusual allowance of common
sense, and a kind heart to boot. She was dark and good-looking, like
most of the Fairfaxes, and inherited no small share of their force of
character and determination. Having no brother of her own, she had
always appropriated her cousin Reginald as such, since he, at the
ripe age of six, had made impassioned love to her, a grown-up
young lady of seventeen. She absolutely ruled all the men of her
family (husband included) with a mild and gracious sway, always
with the notable exception of her cousin “Regy.” His head had never
yet bent under her yoke, and he had the audacity to differ from her
on many vital subjects, and held the heresy that “it was for man to
command, woman to obey, all else confusion.” Nevertheless he
possessed a place in Mrs. Mayhew’s heart second only to that
occupied by her husband and children.
Mrs. Mayhew was never happier than when she was managing
other people’s affairs, for which she had a singular aptitude. To do
her justice, she meddled with the very best intentions, and her hands
were always full. She was the confidante of lovers’ quarrels, of
matrimonial differences untold: from the servant out of place to a girl
jilted by her intended, all came to Mrs. Mayhew, and to them she lent
a ready ear, her sympathy, and assistance. Her only serious trouble
was her rapidly-increasing tendency to embonpoint, and she sighed
when she ordered each new dress to be made with an increasing
width of waist. Her weakness, her particular pet vanity, were her
hands and feet; and certainly she had every reason to be proud of
them.
“Tell Helen she has the prettiest foot in London, and she’ll ask you
to stay for a month,” was one of Geoffrey’s impudent remarks; and
he also declared that knitting, to which she was much addicted, was
merely a framework supplied by her vanity, in order to flourish about
and show off her hands.
She was sitting at the fire one dripping February afternoon knitting
the following thoughts into a stocking:
“This is the 8th. Let me see” (referring to a paper on her knees),
“the Alligator sails on the 26th. Not much time to be lost. I must make
one desperate effort to try to reunite this wretchedly headstrong
young couple. I’ll take Norman down to Southsea next week for
change of air for his cough, and once established in our old lodgings
I can easily carry on operations.”
Here her husband entered, and she laid her plans before him.
“Go to Southsea, my dear, by all means, but whatever it may do
for Norman’s cough, I don’t think it will be of much use as far as Alice
and Reginald are concerned. There is no answer yet from the army
chaplain. The detectives are no wiser than we are ourselves.
Besides which, that old scorpion, Miss Fane, has Alice talked out of
all her senses by this time, be sure.”
“But I anticipate a great deal from an unexpected meeting,
nevertheless. I’ll get Alice over from Sandown to spend a few days,
and ‘you shall see what you shall see.’ You know that she and Miss
Fane are there, and have taken a house till April.”
“Please yourself and you please me; but I have a conviction that
your little plot will be no go. Reginald’s temper is like what the Irish
cook said of your own: ‘That you were a good Christian lady, but
when you were riz, you was riz;’ and he is very much riz indeed.”
“Well, I can’t wonder at it, I must say. You would have been, to say
the least of it, annoyed if I had, after being married to you a few
months, called you a hypocrite and deceiver, and left you, after
throwing you my wedding-ring; you knowing yourself to be entirely
innocent of any blame all the time.”
“Yes, very true; but no such volcano as this certificate ever burst
out in your home. Pray what would you have done, or say you would
have done, in such a case?”
“I would have trusted you, Mark.”
“Humph.” What an extraordinary amount of unbelief a grunt can
convey.
“Ah well, perhaps you would. Such trust is, however, much easier
in theory than in practice. Make some allowance for Alice, poor girl,
although we all know she is in the wrong. It’s a bad business—a bad
business.”
So saying, he opened his paper with an impressive rustle and
buried himself in the news of the day.