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PALGRAVE INSIGHTS INTO APOCALYPSE ECONOMICS
SERIES EDITOR: RICHARD WESTRA
Financing the
Apocalypse
Drivers for Economic and Political Instability
Joel Magnuson
Palgrave Insights into Apocalypse Economics
Series Editor
Richard Westra
Graduate School of Law
Nagoya University
Nagoya-shi, Aichi, Japan
This series is set to become the lodestone for critical Marxist and related
Left scholarship on the raft of apocalyptic tendencies enveloping the
global economy and society. Its working premise is that neoliberal pol-
icies from the 1980s not only failed to rejuvenate capitalist prosperity
lost with the demise of the post-Second World War ‘golden age’ econ-
omy but in fact have generated a widening spectrum of pathologies
that threaten humanity itself. At the most fundamental level the series
cultivates state of the art critical political economic analysis of the cri-
ses, recessionary, deflationary and austerity conditions that have beset
the world economy since the global meltdown of 2008–2009. However,
though centered on work that critically explores global propensities for
devastating financial convulsions, ever-widening inequalities and eco-
nomic marginalisation due to information technologies, robotised pro-
duction and low wage outsourcing, it seeks to draw on exacerbating
factors such as climate change and global environmental despoliation,
corrupted food systems and land-grabbing, rampant militarism, cyber
crime and terrorism, all together which defy mainstream economics and
conventional political policy solutions.
For critical Marxist and related Left scholars the series offers a
non-sectarian outlet for academic work that is hard-hitting, inter/trans-
disciplinary and multiperspectival. Its readership draws in academics,
researchers, students, progressive governmental and non-governmental
actors and the academically-informed public.
Financing the
Apocalypse
Drivers for Economic and Political
Instability
Joel Magnuson
Independent Researcher
Tualatin, OR, USA
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature
Switzerland AG, part of Springer Nature 2018
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether
the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse
of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and
transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by
similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt
from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this
book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the
authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein
or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to
jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature
Switzerland AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Contents
1 Introduction 1
v
vi Contents
13 Conclusion 307
Appendix 317
Index 323
List of Figures
Fig. 4.1 Effective and statutory tax rates in G20 Countries, 2012
(Source Congressional Budget Office, the Organization
for Economic Co-operation and Development, and the
Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation) 97
Fig. 6.1 Gini Index for the United States, 1967–2015
(Source Federal Reserve District Bank of St. Louis,
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=212325&
updated=2000 and Luxembourg income study,
https://www.lisdatacenter.org/our-data/lis-database/) 155
Fig. 7.1 Federal debt as a percentage of GDP, 1980–2018
(Source Federal Reserve Bank St. Louis, https://fred.
stlouisfed.org/data/GFDEGDQ188S.txt) 172
Fig. 7.2 Stocks traded in total value as a percentage of global GDP
(Source The World Bank: World Federation of Exchanges
database. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/CM.MKT.
TRAD.GD.ZS?view=chart) 174
Fig. 9.1 S&P Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index,
1987–2018 (Source Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
and Standard and Poors, S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National
Home Price Index, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/
CSUSHPINSA) 225
vii
viii List of Figures
ix
1
Introduction
4% in 1980, then soared to 8.3% by 2006 right before the banking cri-
sis began.2 This goes a long way to explaining how and why our econo-
mies are becoming increasingly unstable; for in the historical view, there
is always boom-bust instability that follows.
There are other causes of economic undulations during the
Greenspan Era including the policies of the Federal Reserve. Among the
most outstanding characteristics of the Greenspan Fed is its commit-
ment to flooding the financial system with generous amounts of cheap
credit, which stimulated a massive debt bubble. Household debt was
56% of national output in 1987, then it steadily rose to reach 63% in
2000, and then soared to 98% by the first quarter of 2008 on the eve of
the banking crisis.3 Household debt has been trimmed back to 78.7%
yet remains persistently high by historical comparison.4
Public debt as a percentage of GDP has also increased during the
Greenspan Era. It was 48% in 1987, hit a 65% peak in 1995, then
tapered off temporarily. When the George W. Bush tax cuts for the
wealthy were put into effect in 2001, public debt resumed its upward
climb, and then soared during the Great Recession and continued to
climb after the recession was over to hit 105% of GDP by 2016.5 The
Trump tax cuts have pushed public deficits and debts to new highs.
Cheap and abundant credit flowing out of the Fed also served to keep
interest rates on Treasury bonds at rock bottom. Pension fund manag-
ers could not meet the expectation of their retirees’ financial plans and
became compelled to seek out other securities for investment. As they
did, they and other fund managers ventured further and further into
the higher risk territories of corporate bonds that are rated in a range
from sterling triple A to junk.
Among the biggest concerns regarding the debt bubble is the high
amount of corporate debt and the concern that the low-interest rates
on this debt do not accurately reflect risk. To give some perspective
on this, the total dollar amount of capital traded in the US stock mar-
kets sums to about $30 trillion the ups and downs of which we hear
about throughout each working day. The corporate bond market is
much larger—about $41 trillion as of this writing. To help facilitate
this expansion of debt, the Federal Reserve has jumped from hold-
ing about $800 billion in bonds, to over $4 trillion, which is about a
4
J. Magnuson
Several decades before the Greenspan Era began this institutional per-
spective on the evolution of corporate hegemony originated with the
long-term vision held by economist and grandfather of institutional
economics, Thorstein Veblen.
By the time Dugger conveyed this message, the Greenspan Era was
already underway. For a good century and more, corporate evolution
was given free passage to stitch together a network of behemoths that
collectively brought government and central bank institutions every-
where into its sphere of influence. This became among the most pow-
erful club of wealth and influence in modern history. The dominant
institution controls the markets in retail, auto, pharmaceuticals, media
finance, and every other industry either through oligopoly, virtual
monopolies, or joint ventures—which are basically legalized cartels—
though nonetheless still largely viewed in economic and business theory
as mere business models.
And all of this is sugar-coated for mass consumption with neoliberal-
ism propaganda. Politically captured, policymakers are lulled into com-
placency and dismissiveness toward the most pressing dangers that have
been building in the system for decades, not least of which are insta-
bilities on gargantuan scale, the punishment of climate change, and a
chasm of economic inequality.
8
J. Magnuson
The rider of the black horse of the apocalypse is said to have come
carrying a set of scales surrounded by a voice claiming, “A measure of
wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see
thou hurt not the oil and the wine,”15 which could reasonably be inter-
preted as a warning to maintain some kind of balance or stability in
commerce and in relation to available resources. The consequences for
ignoring this follow in the form of a ghostly “pale horse: and his name
that sate on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.”16
However, one chooses to interpret such a passage, it is not hard to
see that we are being held accountable in some way or another when we
allow things to warp out of balance. The indications of profound imbal-
ance are overwhelming. Foremost among the many concerns raised in
Financing the Apocalypse is that these institutional and ideological devel-
opments are deepening the crisis conditions our financial system at a
time when societies everywhere are already being rendered vulnerable by
the ravages of climate change, reactionary political movements, and a
dwindling resource base. Moreover, these trends appear to be on a path
to converge into a perfect storm of collapse.
bubbles is that they always pop. When these do, the economic fallout
will be astronomical.
To rescue Wall Street from its troubles, the Federal Reserve embarked
on a buying spree of Mortgage-backed securities, government debt, and
other securities and created an asset bubble. Its holdings of assets soared
from about $800 billion in 2007 to nearly $4.5 trillion a decade later.
To do this it created about $3.5 trillion dollars out of thin air. If the Fed
were to try to unwind its holdings of these assets and return to trend, it
would have to reverse that process and dump about $3 trillion of these
back on the markets. Such a move would crash the market and precipi-
tate a global financial meltdown.
The way the US economic system works is that when crises unfold,
it is those who are most economically vulnerable bear the bulk of the
damage. Measured in terms of inequality, such vulnerability is building
in the system with an “inequality bubble.” The Gini Index is a meas-
urement of income distribution (see Chapter 6). The higher the index
number, the more unequal the distribution of income becomes for the
population. The long-term trend is for an increasingly wide chasm of
separating the wealthy from the rest of the population. Given the cur-
rent political climate, the trend will continue and shows no sign of ever
returning to a condition of equitable income distribution. This trend is
certain to cause social instability at some point.
The ravages of climate change are upon us as is the “carbon dioxide
bubble” grows larger each year. According to scientist James Hansen, it
is estimated that the world can limit the worst effects of climate change
by bringing the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide to below
350 parts per million from its current levels of over 400. This number
was considered the key to avoiding the climate change “tipping point”
beyond which the global climate condition moves from stable to unsta-
ble. Humans have already past that point and there is no turning back.
Together these developments are pointing to instability in one shape or
another—financial and economic instability, political instability, and
climate instability—as they would have to because bubbles are inher-
ently unstable structures, and they are all anthropogenic.
As we say that these conditions are anthropogenic, we are saying that
these condition are caused by human activity. In the view presented
10
J. Magnuson
· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·
· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·
· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·
«Caro Andrea,
«Io accetto, per obbedienza figliale una vita di sacrificio.
Accettatela anche voi per sentimento di carità. Sposate la mia
povera Editta; toglietela a quell’esistenza tribolata, a quei
maltrattamenti che la uccidono.»
«È la sola prova che posso domandarvi del vostro amore, e
ve ne sarò grata, e vi benedirò per tutta la vita, e pregherò per
voi.»
«Delfina.»