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CRITICAL STUDIES IN RISK
AND UNCERTAINTY
Series Editors: Patrick Brown, Anna Olofsson and
Jens O. Zinn
IMAGINED
FUTURES
Hope, Risk and
Uncertainty
Julia Cook
Critical Studies in Risk and Uncertainty
Series editor
Patrick Brown
University of Amsterdam
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Anna Olofsson
Mid Sweden University
Östersund, Sweden
Jens O. Zinn
University of Melbourne
Parkville, VIC, Australia
Palgrave’s Critical Studies in Risk and Uncertainty series publishes
monographs, edited volumes and Palgrave Pivots that capture and ana-
lyse how societies, organisations, groups and individuals experience and
confront uncertain futures. An array of approaches for mitigating vulner-
ability to undesired futures has emerged within social contexts around
the world and across history, with risk being seen as an especially salient
technique to have emerged within, while also characterising, processes of
modernisation. These approaches have attracted the critical attention of
scholars across a wide range of social science and humanities disciplines
including sociology, anthropology, geography, history, psychology, eco-
nomics, linguistics, philosophy and political science. This series will pro-
vide a multidisciplinary home to consolidate this dynamic and growing
academic field, bringing together and representing the state of the art on
various topics within the broader domain of critical approaches to risk
and uncertainty. It aims to provide cutting edge theoretical and empiri-
cal contributions, as well as established and emerging methodologi-
cal approaches. The series welcomes projects on an array of approaches
to unknown and contingent futures such as risk, trust, hope, intuition,
emotions and faith. Moreover, the series stresses the desirability of a sen-
sitivity to the broader political, structural and socio-cultural conditions in
which some particular approaches to complexity and uncertainty—such
as risk—become legitimated ahead of others. Explorations of the insti-
tutionalisation of approaches to uncertainty within regulatory and other
governmental regimes is also of interest.
Imagined Futures
Hope, Risk and Uncertainty
Julia Cook
University of Melbourne
Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Cover illustration: Pattern adapted from an Indian cotton print produced in the 19th century
vii
Contents
1 Introduction 1
7 Conclusion 129
Appendix 1 137
Index 139
ix
CHAPTER 1
Introduction
natural environment of the area for thousands of years to come. Yet due to
the complexity of contemporary life, we are perhaps now more than ever
before hindered in our efforts to extrapolate from the present in order to
anticipate what the future might hold. This dilemma has been met with
various responses such as the development of what has been termed the
precautionary principle which dictates that if a proposed action is suspected
of carrying with it a risk of causing harm to human well-being or the
natural environment, then the burden of proof lies not on its opponents to
substantiate this claim, but on its proponents to prove that it is not harmful.
While approaches of this type, despite having their critics, have application
for governments and intragovernmental organisations faced with the task
of legislating for an increasingly opaque future, they have less instructional
value for individuals. However, while the vast majority of individuals
inhabiting the earth at present are not responsible for the types of decisions
that necessitate the precautionary principle, it cannot be denied that
collectively their actions will have a profound impact upon the future in
ways that are currently known to us (for instance, the production of CO2
emissions from personal transport) as well as in ways that we are not yet
aware of. Although individuals are evidently at once connected to the long-
term future through their actions, and yet disconnected from it due to the
inherent uncertainty of what it will hold, it remains unclear how—or indeed
if—they experience and negotiate this tension within the context of their
everyday lives. It is this question of how individuals manage the pervasive
uncertainty of the long-term, societal future that motivates this book.
Although the future is necessarily at the forefront of the popular
consciousness, the ways in which individuals relate to it remain
ambiguous in scholarly work. Studies on this subject have generally
focused on governance of the future, using the language of risk,
contingency and sustainability (Ayre and Callway 2005; Beck 2009). As a
result, in-depth consideration of how the future of society is perceived by
individuals is largely absent from the literature. When this topic has been
addressed in empirical studies, they have been almost exclusively large
scale and based on self-administered surveys (see Ornauer et al. 1976;
Livingstone 1983), meaning that although they offer a broad overview of
collective trends in future-oriented thinking, they are generally less able
to account for why individuals hold specific views. Additionally, the age
of these studies means that they have limited application for predicting
contemporary perceptions of the future. More recent studies considering
how individuals perceive the societal future have focused almost
1 INTRODUCTION 3
The Study
In order to address how individuals cope with the uncertainty inherent
in the long-term future horizon in their everyday lives, this book draws
on the findings of an empirical study that was conducted in 2014
in Melbourne, Australia. The study was motivated by the following
questions:
The data informing this research are drawn from an interview-based study
conducted with 28 young adults (aged 18–34) in Melbourne, Australia,
in 2014. The choice of this sample was informed by three considerations:
firstly, young adults have been under-represented in studies of future-
oriented (for instance, generative or stewardship) behaviours when
6 J. Cook
the imaginaries with which the respondents depict the long-term future,
this chapter addresses the first question underpinning this study: how do
individuals imagine the future of the society in which they live?
Chapter 5 considers how the respondents’ approaches to the long-
term future compare with the theoretical diagnoses of the contemporary
era presented in Chap. 2. The respondents’ representations are, however,
not individually compared to the macro-level accounts: rather the
concept of imaginaries is used as a bridge by which the latter theories
can be juxtaposed with a unit of similar generality. While addressing
this topic, the chapter continues to present the findings of the empirical
component of the research. Specifically, the imaginaries that were
identified in the previous chapter are compared to the existing theoretical
accounts, and in the course of this discussion, the main tenets of the
imaginaries are clarified further through the use of data to support the
arguments presented in this chapter. Ultimately, it is found that while the
theoretical accounts considered in Chapter 1 held significant explanatory
value for the decline-based imaginary that was cited by some of the
respondents, they were less able to account for the alternative imaginary
that emerged alongside it. In the light of this finding, some ways in
which the future can be conceptualised that account for the diversity of
views represented in this study are proposed.
Finally, Chap. 6 departs from the research questions motivating this
book to more closely consider a central finding that emerged from
the study. Specifically, it considers the role that was played by hope in
the alternative imaginary identified in Chap. 3. The chapter begins by
considering the growing body of interdisciplinary literature considering
hope and the role that it plays in managing uncertainty, using this
discussion to better define the way in which this somewhat amorphous
concept can be applied to long-term thinking. The discussion then moves
on to consider how the hope that the respondents expressed for the future
was formed and how it might be related to some of the arguments that
have been put forward in previous chapters. Finally, the purposes that the
alternative, hope-based imaginary served for the respondents is considered,
and some of the potential implications of this type of future thinking are
discussed. Ultimately, this chapter contends that this type of hope offers a
potentially productive way of relating to the future for both individuals and
wider society not because it has a specifically moral orientation or value,
but because it appears comparatively productive when measured against
the seeming stasis that was prompted by the decline-based imaginary.
1 INTRODUCTION 9
References
Adam, B., & Groves, C. (2007). Future matters: Action, knowledge, ethics.
Leiden: Brill.
Anderson, M., Bechhofer, F., McGrone, D., Jamieson, L., Li, Y., & Stewart, R.
(2005). Timespans and plans among young adults. Sociology, 39(1), 139–155.
Anttila, T., Poikolainen, K., Uutela, A., & Lonnqvist, J. (2000). Structure and
determinants of worrying among adolescent girls. Journal of Youth Studies,
3(1), 49–60.
Ayre, G., & Callway, R. (2005). Governance for sustainable development: A foundation
for the future. London: Earthscan.
Beck, U. (2009). World at risk. Cambridge: Polity.
Brooks, R., & Everett, G. (2008). The prevalence of “life planning”: Evidence
from UK graduates. British Journal of Sociology of Education, 29(3), 325–337.
Connell, S., Fien, J., Lee, J., Sykes, H., & Yencken, D. (1999). If it doesn’t
directly affect you, you don’t think about it: A qualitative study of young
people’s environmental attitudes in two Australian cities. Environmental
Education Research, 5(1), 95–113.
Corbin, J. M., & Strauss, A. (2008). Basics of qualitative research: Techniques and
procedures for developing grounded theory. London: Sage.
Furlong, A., & Biggart, A. (1999). Framing ‘choices’: A longitudinal study of
social aspirations among 13 to 16-year-olds. Journal of Education and Work,
12(1), 21–36.
Gow, J., & Leahy, T. (2005). Apocalypse probably: Agency and environmental
risk in the Hunter region. Journal of Sociology, 41(2), 117–141.
Johnson, L. (1987). Children’s visions of the future. The Futurist, 2(1), 36–40.
Leahy, T., Bowden, V., & Threadgold, S. (2010). Stumbling towards collapse:
Coming to terms with the climate crisis. Environmental Politics, 19(9),
851–868.
Livingstone, D. (1983). Intellectual and popular images of the educational and
social future. In D. Livingstone (Ed.), Class ideologies and educational futures
(pp. 179–224). London: Falmer Press.
Norgaard, K. M. (2011). Living in denial: Climate change, emotions, and every-
day life. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Nowotny, H. (1994). Time: The modern and postmodern experience (N. Plaice,
Trans.). Cambridge: Polity Press.
Ojala, M. (2005). Adolescents’ worries about environmental risks: Subjective
well-being, values, and existential dimensions. Journal of Youth Studies, 8(3),
331–347.
Ornauer, H., Wiberg, H., Sicinski, A., & Galtung, J. (1976). Images of the world
in the year 2000. Atlantic Highlands, NJ: Humanities Press.
10 J. Cook
Abstract This chapter considers how the future has been conceptual-
ised in sociological work, focusing predominantly on theoretical accounts
which have sought to diagnose the character of the future horizon due to
their strong influence on the discipline. While the future horizons of pre-
modern and modern eras have been conceptualised in largely uniform ways
(with some notable exceptions), the future of the contemporary, late mod-
ern era is comparatively contested. Competing diagnoses of this era as, for
instance, late or post-modern, and as characterised by temporal accelera-
tion, risk, or a new relationship with tradition are placed into dialogue in
this chapter in order to highlight their key points of difference and simi-
larity. Finally, alternative accounts of temporality and futurity produced by
figures such as Johannes Fabian and Barbara Adam are considered.
Language: Finnish
Kirj.
Jacob Tegengren
Suomentanut
Kevätlintuja.
Iltalaulu.
Kaksi suorasanaista runoelmaa.
Kehtolaulu uinuville sieluille.
Käy mukaan, Marianne, nyt on metsissä kesä!
Unelma Iisasta.
Regina.
Yhä valkeammaksi, yhä äänettömämmäksi.
Tarina eräästä isästä.
Kuninkaan unelmia.
Joutsenet.
Kevätlintuja.
Iltalaulu.
Mutta kun sinä sen olet huomannut, rukoilen minä ikuista henkeä,
että hän sinut vapahtaisi siitä pienestä ja sairaasta surusta, missä
sinä silmäsi punasiksi itkisit. Minä rukoilen, että hän antaisi sinulle
sen surun, joka on iäisen onnen ja kauneuden siemen.
*****
Ilta.
*****
*****
Yö.
Kohta kulkee minun tieni ohi valkean huvilan, joka uinuu puiden
kätkössä, metsän jykevään syliin suljettuna. Jo seisoo polun varrella
tuossa tuo vanhan rakennuksen muotoinen suuri kivi, jonka
halkeamat kasvavat sammalta ja sananjalkaa.
Jo häämöttää huvila puunrunkojen välistä tuolla, kuutamon
kultalankoihin kietoutuneena, yön kylmässä kuutamossa vieläkin
valkeampana kuin päivän säteilevässä auringonpaisteessa.