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Waste to energy feasibility, challenges, and perspective in municipal

solid waste incineration and implementation: A case study for
Pakistan

Abdul Mannan Zafar , Sahar Shahid , Muhammad Imran Nawaz ,

Jawad Mustafa , Sidra Iftekhar , Iftikhar Ahmed , Shamas Tabraiz ,
Elza Bontempi , Muhammad Assad , Fatima Ghafoor ,
Saleh Al-Farraj , Mika Sillanpää , Sami Souissi

PII: S2666-8211(24)00013-9
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ceja.2024.100595
Reference: CEJA 100595

To appear in: Chemical Engineering Journal Advances

Received date: 22 August 2023

Revised date: 7 February 2024
Accepted date: 8 February 2024

Please cite this article as: Abdul Mannan Zafar , Sahar Shahid , Muhammad Imran Nawaz ,
Jawad Mustafa , Sidra Iftekhar , Iftikhar Ahmed , Shamas Tabraiz , Elza Bontempi ,
Muhammad Assad , Fatima Ghafoor , Saleh Al-Farraj , Mika Sillanpää , Sami Souissi , Waste
to energy feasibility, challenges, and perspective in municipal solid waste incineration and im-
plementation: A case study for Pakistan, Chemical Engineering Journal Advances (2024), doi:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ceja.2024.100595

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HIGHLIGHTS

 Untreated municipal solid waste causes air-borne and health problems in

megacities

 Open burning of MSW is causing high PM2.5 and CO2 pollution in Pakistan

 MSW incineration as waste-to-energy (WtE) can be used to reduce the

air, water, and land pollution

 WtE approach can be used to make revenue by entering in carbon credits

regime

 MSW incineration generates energy to solve the unserved energy crisis

in Pakistan

1
Waste to energy feasibility, challenges, and perspective in municipal solid

waste incineration and implementation: A case study for Pakistan

Abdul Mannan Zafar a,b,*, Sahar Shahid c, Muhammad Imran Nawaz d, Jawad Mustafa
e
, Sidra Iftekhar f, Iftikhar Ahmed c, Shamas Tabraiz g, Elza Bontempi h, Muhammad

Assad c, Fatima Ghafoor c, Saleh Al-Farraj i, Mika Sillanpää j,k, Sami Souissi l

a. Biotechnology Research Center, Technology Innovation Institute, P.O. Box

9639, Masdar City, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; Email:
(Abdul.Zafar@tii.ae)
b. Civil and Environmental Engineering Department and National Water and
Energy Center, United Arab Emirates University, Al-Ain, 15551, Abu
Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; Email: A.M. Zafar (201990200@uaeu.ac.ae)
c. Institute of Environmental Engineering and Research (IEER), University of
Engineering and Technology, Grand Trunk Road, 52489, Lahore, Pakistan;
Email: S. Shahid (sahar.shahid95@gmail.com); Iftikhar Ahmed
(iftikharahmed0738@gmail.com); M. Assad (assad.engr@gmail.com); F.
Ghafoor (fatimaghafoor8@gmail.com)
d. School of the Environment and Safety Engineering, Jiangsu University,
Zhenjiang, 212013, China; (dr.imran@ujs.edu.cn)
e. Chemical and Petroleum Engineering Department, UAE University, Al
Ain, United Arab Emirates; Email: J. Mustafa (201890103@uaeu.ac.ae)
f. Department of Technical Physics, University of Eastern Finland, 70210,
Kuopio, Finland; Email: S. Iftekhar (sidra_iftekhar@yahoo.com)
g. Section of Natural and Applied Sciences, Canterbury Christ Church
University, Canterbury, CT1 1QU, United Kingdom; Email: S. Tabraiz
(shamastabraiz2@gmail.com)
h. INSTM and Chemistry for Technologies Laboratory, Department of
Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Brescia, Via Branze,
38, 25123, Brescia, Italy; Email: E. Bontempi (elza.bontempi@unibs.it)
i. Department of Zoology, College of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh,
Saudi Arabia; Email: S. Al-Farraj (alfarraj@ksu.edu.sa)
j. Functional Materials Group, Gulf University for Science and Technology,
Mubarak Al-Abdullah, 32093 Kuwait, Kuwait, Email: M. Sillanpää
(mikaesillanpaa@gmail.com)
k. School of Technology, Woxsen University, Hyderabad, Telangana, India

2
 l. Univ. Lille, CNRS, Univ. Littoral Côte d’Opale, IRD, UMR 8187, LOG,
Laboratoire d'Océanologie et de Géosciences, Station marine de Wimereux,
F-59000 Lille, France. (sami.souissi@univ-lille.fr)
*Correspondence: Abdul Mannan Zafar (abdul.zafar@tii.ae); Biotechnology

Research Center, Technology Innovation Institute, P.O. Box 9639, Masdar City,

AbuDhabi, United Arab Emirates.

3
Abstract

Pakistan faces social and health issues due to the mismanagement of municipal solid

waste (MSW) in urban and rural areas. Unhygienic conditions due to roadside disposal

of MSW negatively affect society, aesthetics, economy, and tourism. This study aims

to determine the potential of thermal energy-based MSW incineration technology for

electricity generation and waste volume reduction in six major cities in Punjab, namely

Lahore, Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Faisalabad, Gujranwala, and Sialkot. In this study, the

heat content was calculated using the modified Dulong’s equation for the calorific

value (CV). Population, waste generation rate, waste characteristics, moisture content,

and local public practices also affect energy potential and were considered in the

calculations of electricity generation potential. Furthermore, three different sensitivity

analysis trials of the power generation capacity were performed with various waste-to-

energy (WtE) plant output efficiencies. The analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG)

emissions from MSW incineration and CO2 reduction was compared with existing

local practices. For WtE potential, Lahore has an energy recovery of 552 kWh/ton of

MSW. Carbon footprints can be reduced by incinerating waste rather than disposal

through pollution-generating local practices, such as open burning. The study results

showed that MSW handling in Punjab can be utilized for WtE generation, a potential

alternative to fossil fuel combustion for sustainable energy solutions.

Keywords: Municipal solid waste, Sustainability, Energy potential, Carbon Footprints,

Revenue collection.

4
1 Introduction

The lack of a municipal solid waste (MSW) management system in Pakistan has

caused several environmental and social problems. In the past decade, the

mismanagement of MSW has led to significant environmental deterioration and caused

public health problems [1]. Primary reasons for increased waste generation include

industrialization, overpopulation, and ineffective energy production planning [2].

Because of rapid urbanization in megacities, handling MSW has become a challenge

for administration; as a result, most parts of the cities are compromised [3]. A higher

economic status is generally associated with a higher generation of MSW [4]. In

addition, public habits, economic development, industrialization, and local climate

increase MSW generation. Despite these developments, MSW management authorities

require effective disposal of MSW; however, local administrations ignore these

options, resulting in open dumping sites. In Pakistan, a lack of waste management

practices has resulted in the collection and disposal of waste at nonengineered landfill

sites or along rivers and canal banks [5].

More than 50% of the population lives in urban areas [4]. Correspondingly, the

MSW generation rate has increased with population expansion in megacities

worldwide [6]. MSW generation has accelerated dramatically in developing countries

as living standards, urbanization, and populations have increased [7]. For example, the

MSW generation in the European Union and Asia are 0.9 to 1.6 and 0.7 to 1.5 kg/day,

respectively [8]. This has resulted in the generation of millions of tons of MSW daily

across the globe. A recent study estimated that global MSW generation is

approximately 1.3 billion tons annually or an average of 1.2 kg/capita/day [9]. In the

coming decades, waste generation rates will grow faster than urbanization rates,

reaching 2.2 billion tons/year by 2025 and 4.2 billion tons/year by 2050 [10]. Waste

5
generation rates differ between developing and developed countries [9]. Solid waste in

the developing countries contains more moisture (high organic fraction), dust, small

fragments of wastes, and 2 to 3 times denser due to their high population [11]. The

waste generation rate in the United States (U.S.) has increased from 1.22 to 2.10

kg/c.days between 1960 and 2010, which is still lower than that in the developing

countries [11].

Currently, all MSW management practices in Pakistan have either expired or

become outdated. Due to the lack of waste handling facilities, MSW appears close to

railway tracks, canal banks along rivers, or open spaces, resulting in dumping. Open

dumping and burning are standard practices in most cities in Pakistan, especially

where there is no controlled or partially controlled disposal facility, such as Lahore

City [12]. Open burning causes excessive smoke and particulate matter (PM)

generation due to harmful pollutants emission [13]. As a consequence, Pakistan is

considered one of the most polluted countries in the world, with an average PM2.5

concentration of 66.8 micrograms per cubic meter of air (µg/m3) in 2021 (PM2.5 refers

to fine particles that have a diameter of 2.5 micrometers or less) [14].

In addition to open burning, open disposal is a concerning issue that poses several

health risks. One such problem is the generation of leachate, which infiltrates the soil

to contaminate shallow groundwater resources, resulting in various environmental and

health issues [15]. To cope with water and wastewater treatments, many scientific

groups are working in the field to recover water from contaminants/leachate using

techniques such as advanced oxidation processes based on plasma-based

electrochemical degradation [16,17], electrocoagulation [18], photocatalytic

techniques [19–21], groundwater remediation using nZVI nanoparticles [22]. Open

dumping also involves the biological decomposition of organic matter, which results in

6
odor generation due to the production of several organic intermediates, such as

alkanes, terpenes, alkenes, aldehydes, ketones, alcohols, esters, organic acids,

ammonia, and reduced sulfur compounds [23]. Among these compounds, H2S is the

major gas produced during MSW biodegradation [24]. Another crisis that strikes

Pakistan is the lack of energy sources to operate MSW handling facilities. Pakistan’s

electricity production stock is primarily based on furnace oil, natural gas, coal,

hydroelectricity (hydro) power, and nuclear power. The average electric power

consumption per capita in Pakistan was 497.32 kilowatt hours in 2021. However, this

number is projected to reach 509.36 kilowatt hours by 2025 [25].

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) considers MSW

incineration a clean and renewable energy source [26]. As a result of this strategy,

there will be a reduction in environmental issues related to MSW incineration, which

will also contribute as a solution to the energy crisis. Thus, a controlled MSW

incineration facility is needed to improve local infrastructure, and in return, energy can

be generated from MSW. The novelty of this study lies in the remarkable estimation of

the CO2 emissions from open and closed burning (incineration). This can benefit from

securing low carbon emissions and generating revenue from carbon credits, as

discussed later. Furthermore, the analysis contributes to the potential of monetizing the

waste stream towards zero-waste cities by generating electricity.

A lot of literature has been found measuring the potential of Lahore and some of

the most useful and recent has been reviewed. Azam et al. [27] evaluated the potential

of WtE conversion for 2000 tons/day of MSW and found that their output was

approximately 48 MW. This 48 MW energy content from 2000 tons/day of MSW.

Further due to moisture content in the waste the actual scenarios were neither studied

nor conducted practically. Most of the literature contained estimation based on basic

7
empirical calculations and laboratory up-scaled estimations. The major limitation of

this kind of work is that the laboratory scale estimations shows higher HHV and LHV

due to controlled environment conditions. Islam [28] estimated the MSW incineration

potential with respect to theoretical power generation potential based on BioCHP (Gas

burning) and thermal energy process using Rankine cycle approach (Incineration). A

similar study of Korai et al. [29] and [30] estimated solid waste potential for energy

generation on gas production using methane as a source fuel. These studies have

estimations of energy generation which confuses to opt for better technology so far for

the authorities and safe investment. It is worth noting that this review and scenario

study is a crucial step before building a pilot scale based on waste type that may

provide more accurate parametrization and validation of the WtE approach.

Data on waste characterization was collected from local waste management

companies in six cities in Punjab. Population data were obtained from the latest census

conducted by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics in 2017. Based on these population

data, mathematical equations from the literature were used to estimate the calorific

values from which the net electric generation potential was calculated. The heat loss

and incinerator efficiency were considered before determining the final electricity

generation potential. MSW composition was determined for all cities in Punjab using

an arithmetic method. Mapping was performed to identify the areas in Punjab with the

highest energy potential.

2 Approach and Methodology

2.1 Study area and pollution indexing of Pakistan

This study was conducted in six cities of Punjab, Pakistan. Punjab is Pakistan's

most densely populated state, with a total covered area of 205,345 km2. The six cities

8
selected for this study were Lahore, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Islamabad, and

Rawalpindi. Lahore is the second largest city in Pakistan, with an area of 1,772 km2

and a population of 11.11 million [31]. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics calculated the

overall growth rate of Lahore between the 1998−2017 gazette in the 2017 census to be

3.00. Data for the remaining five cities are presented in Table 1. Therefore, cities with

high population generate higher MSW rates [29]. Furthermore, MSW generation

primarily depends on human activities and lifestyles. Most MSW data were collected

from the available literature based on peer-reviewed articles published in indexed

journals [27,29,32].

Table 1. District-wise population, total area (km2), and average growth rate data of

six megacities of Punjab. The data is from the census 2017 published by the Pakistan

Bureau of Statistics [31].

Avg.
Total Waste generation
Sr. Pop.
City Name area Population rate
No. growth
(km2) (kg/capita/day)
rate

1. Lahore 1,772 11,119,985 3.00 0.75

2. Sialkot 3,016 3,894,938 1.90 0.40

3. Gujranwala 3,622 5,011,066 2.06 1.08

4. Faisalabad 5,857 7,882,444 1.98 0.45

5. Islamabad 906 2,003,368 4.90 0.53

6. Rawalpindi 5,285 5,402,380 2.52 0.41

9
 Figure 1a shows the average PM2.5 concentrations in the eight most polluted

countries worldwide from to 2020−2021. It can be seen that the PM2.5 concentration

increased in Pakistan compared to the previous year. The major contribution of

pollution in Pakistan are from mega cities mainly and their sub-urban areas. Error!

Reference source not found. shows the dependence of Pakistan’s electricity production

on thermal and renewable resources. It is noteworthy that only hydro and nuclear

power generation is a renewable energy-focused area for governments and local

administrations. The capital construction cost of a hydropower generation plant is

enormous, and it takes years to completely utilize its hydro-energy potential. Scientists

have mixed opinions regarding hydropower; some declare it clean energy, while others

label it a disaster for river ecology [33,34]. Other renewable technologies, such as

wind, bioenergy, and solar, contributes only 5% of the total electricity generation,

which is significantly lower. However, there is a need to shift the power generation

potential in renewable source areas, which is significantly lower in Pakistan (Figure

1b).

10
 80 77.1 76.9
2020
75.9

Average PM2.5 concentration (mg/m3)

2021
70 66.8

60 59 59.4 58.1
53.9
51.9 50.8 49.8
50
44.4 43.5
40 39.7

30.9
30

20

10

0
Bangladesh Chad Pakistan Tajikistan India Oman Kyrgyzstan Bahrain

Countries

30
Distribution of electricity generation (%)

27.7
26.9

25

20

15.2
15
13.2
12.1

10

5
3.1
1 0.9
0
Gas Hydro Coal Other fossil Nuclear Wind Bioenergy Solar

Source

Figure 1. a) Average PM2.5 concentrations in the eight most polluted countries worldwide

2020-2021 (Note: the previous year data for Chad is not available), b) Distribution of

electricity generation in Pakistan in 2021 [35].

11
2.2 Waste collection data and design of the study

Waste collection data were obtained from literature [27,29,32] and confirmed from

the local waste management companies as a robust strategy of surveys. Figure 2

illustrates waste collection (tons/day) for the six cities of Punjab considered in the WtE

project. The densely populated Lahore have the highest waste collection of 6500

tons/day of MSW. The second-highest waste collection rate was found in Faisalabad

(3000 tons/day). The data were used to calculate energy potential estimates and net

electricity generation.

9000 100
Waste Generation (Tons/day)
Waste Collection (Tons/day)
90
Waste generation & collection (Tons/day)

8000 Waste Collectible (%)

80
7000

70

Waste collectible (%)

6000
60
5000
50
4000
40
3000
30

2000
20

1000 10

0 0
Lahore Sialkot Gujranwala Faisalabad Islamabad Rawalpindi

Figure 2. Waste collection (tons/day) in six cities of Punjab. The left y-axis is the
representation of waste generation and collection in Tons/day, while the right y-axis is
the representation of percentage of waste collectible for the cities demonstrated on x-
axis.

2.3 Waste characteristics and waste classification in Punjab

Waste characterization data were collected from local waste management

companies in six cities of Punjab namely, Lahore, Sialkot, Faisalabad, Gujranwala,

Rawalpindi, and Islamabad. The data on waste characterization were subdivided into

12
income and social practices, which were considered according to low-, middle-, and

high-income population groups. Furthermore, waste characterization was compared

with articles, journals, magazines, working papers, and books. The classification of

MSW was based on the following criteria: electronic waste, glass, hazardous waste,

biodegradable waste, metal, non-combustible waste, paper/cardboard, nylon, plastics,

Tetra Pak, textiles, and leather [36].

2.4 Sampling of MSW and analysis

For MSW characterization, weekly and monthly waste samples were collected

from residential buildings, including high-, medium-, and low-rise residences, and

commercial places. Several other protocols followed the U.S. Standard Test Method

for the Determination of the Composition of Unprocessed Municipal Solid Waste

(ASTM D5231) and the European Commission Methodology for the Analysis of Solid

Waste (SWA-Tool) [27]. Ultimate analysis was performed to segregate the fractions of

elemental compositions, that is, carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, oxygen, and sulfur, in the

classified and characterized MSW. Elemental composition percentages of MSW were

collected for the incinerator-based studies [37].

2.4.1 Determination of physical and chemical characteristics of MSW

The moisture content of MSW varies depending on several factors such as the type

of waste, climatic conditions, and collection method. Information on the average

moisture content of each city was considered when calculating the dry weight that

could be used as fuel. This information is expressed as a percentage of the total daily

waste mass. The following Eq. (1) represents the calculation of the dry weight [28]:

ton 100 − % 𝑊𝐹 𝑡𝑜𝑛

DW ( )= × 𝑊𝑊 ( ) (1)
day 100 𝑑𝑎𝑦

13
 where, DW = dry weight (tons/day), WF = weight fraction as a percentage (%),

and WW = wet weight (tons/day). Based on the dry weight fraction of the MSW, a

standard weight fraction was obtained from the local waste management companies

listed in Table S1 (Supplementary data file) [12]. The fraction values of different cities

were utilized in Eq. (1) to estimate the total dry weight. The MSW weight moisture

fraction calculations were based on different climatic and environmental factors such

as relative humidity, local habitats, and practices. In Table S2, we present the chemical

properties of the MSW in percentage mass fractions of carbon, oxygen, hydrogen,

nitrogen, and sulfur used in Eq. (2) [38]. The following tables were obtained from the

literature to better understand the MSW according to location [27]. These data help

estimate the combustible MSW into heating content, that is, the calorific value in

kcal/kg. Dry MSW can be used as a fuel source (refuse-derived fuel) for incineration

facilities because of its high combustibility and heat generation. Therefore, dry weight

of the MSW was considered in the energy estimation for the six cities in Punjab. In

this analysis, dried MSW and moist MSW was considered to calculate the CO2

generation potential between two different waste streams.

2.4.2 Estimation of energy potential from the MSW incineration

Energy content is an essential parameter in the incineration process as it determines

the possible electricity production from MSW. For producing electricity from MSW,

the facility of incinerators is equipped with furnaces with temperature ranges from 980

to 1090 ºC [38]. MSW becomes a fuel source for igniting furnaces; in return, heat is

generated, and MSW residues turn into ash and flue gases. The Rankine cycle converts

heat to steam to generate electricity [39]. Typically, the energy content of a specific

waste can be measured using the bomb calorimetric method. Using a bomb

calorimeter, a 10 kg dried MSW sample was used to determine its calorific value (CV).

14
In this study, an ultimate analysis approach was used by computing in to the Dulong

equation according to a modified parameter estimation for the local regionalities of

Pakistan. Eq. (2) was used to estimate the calorific value in kcal/kg and modified as

per the data availability [38,40].

kcal
CV MSW ( ) = 8075 × %Mass of C + 2220 × %Mass of S
kg

%Mass of O (2)
+ {34500 × %Mass of H2 − ( )}
8

where, C, S, H, and O are the percentages of carbon, sulfur, hydrogen, and oxygen,

respectively. The calculated calorific value was converted to kJ/kg using a conversion

factor of 1 kcal = 4.184 kJ. Later, the heat produced during MSW incineration was

assumed to ignite the steam turbine using the Rankine cycle principle to produce

electricity and was used to evaluate the electrical generation potential in the six cities

[39].

2.4.3 Estimation of CO2 eq. reduction from MSW incineration

Improper handling at MSW disposal sites or open dumping can cause methane

(CH4) production. Sohoo et al. [41] evaluated the CH4 production potential of

megacities at open dumping sites and found that approximately 12.8 MtCO2-eq of CH4

was produced and emitted in the environment. Therefore, reducing the MSW volume

through incineration will reduce CO2 eq. reduction. The MSW incinerator falls under

the category of WtE projects, and carbon credits can be recovered to generate revenue

[37]. In developing countries such as Pakistan, the practice of carbon credits is

generally still undiscovered. Therefore, an estimate of how much CO2 eq. reduction by

the incineration process is necessary. The IPCC guidelines (2019) calculate CO2 eq.

reduction based on tons of MSW. This relationship is expressed by Eq. (3), obtained

15
from Chapter five, using a CO2 emissions estimate based on the MSW composition

[42].

ton CO2
CO2 eq. reduction from WtE project ( )
ton MSW
(3)
44
= ∑(𝐷𝑊𝐹𝑗 × 𝐶𝑑𝑟𝑦 𝑗 × 𝑂𝐹𝑗 ) ×
12
𝑗

Where, j in the equation represents the waste component that is incinerated, such as

paper or cardboard, DWFj is the dried weight fraction of the waste type/material of

component j in the MSW, Cdry j is the dried percentage of the carbon fraction of waste

component j in the dry matter, and OFj is the oxidation factor, which was considered as

one in this study. 44/12 is the conversion factor for C to CO2.

2.4.4 CO2 eq. reduction as a step towards carbon credits economy

Controlled incineration of MSW can be considered much better than open burning,

which is major contributor to the atmospheric pollution in Pakistan. Therefore, this

study considers the reduction of CO2 eq. reduction in Pakistan's MSW incineration

WtE scenario. The following relationship was used for the open-burning scenario

described by the EPA [43]:

CO2 eq. reduction (𝑡 CO2 )

44 (4)
= 𝑀𝑆𝑊𝑤𝑒𝑡 × ∑(𝑊𝐹𝑗 × 𝑑𝑚𝑗 × 𝐶𝐹𝑗 × 𝐹𝐶𝐹𝑗 × 𝑂𝐹𝑗 ) ×
12
𝑗

where, MSWwet is the wet MSW weight that is open burned, WFj is the weight

fraction of waste component j as the wet weight that is open burned, dmj is the dry

matter content of component j, CFj is the fraction of carbon in the dry matter of

component j, FCFj is the fraction of fossil carbon in the total carbon component j, OFj

is the oxidation factor and is considered to be one, and 44/12 is the conversion factor

16
from C to CO2. Additionally, the CO2 emission factor (1.00 kg CO2) for an electricity

consumption of 4.29 kWh was considered as an estimated factor. The price of

electricity generated from MSW incineration was set at US$ 0.10/ kWh when

consumed in the residential sector [44]. For revenue calculations from CO2 eq.

reduction, US$ 20/t CO2 reduction was selected [35].

WARM calculates GHG emissions using different MSW technologies, such as

landfills, anaerobic digestion, source reduction, recycling, and composting.

Furthermore, another analysis based on computer-aided software for waste reduction

was used to estimate the emissions in metric tons of CO2 eq. reduction (MtCO2-eq)

from the MSW incineration scenario. The EPA developed the software, and freeware

is available on the webpage [45]. However, in the current study, several cases were

considered in a sensitivity analysis to estimate the power generation potential and

carbon emissions and their reduction using MSW incineration. A sensitivity analysis

was also performed for the cases shown in Table S3.

3 Results and discussion

3.1 Ultimate analysis and calorific value (CV) of MSW

Different percentages (%) of the mass elemental composition were calculated

during ultimate analysis. The waste component distributions are presented in Tables S1

and S2. The elemental compositions were computed using Eq. (2), and the calorific

values were obtained for the six cities of Punjab. Figure 3 illustrates ultimate analysis

results in percentages by mass based on waste components and types for the six cities

in Punjab. The highest CV was observed in Rawalpindi city, i.e., around 19,887 kJ/kg.

However, for Lahore, which had the highest population, the calculated CV was

approximately 17,570 kJ/kg, as shown in Figure 3. The percentages of carbon and

17
 oxygen were calculated to be lower for Lahore than that for Rawalpindi. This could be

due to different lifestyles or industries that contribute to the total waste composition

and waste types. Similarly, weather has a significant effect on the moisture content in

waste, which could reduce the CV of MSW, making it unfavorable for ignition [46].

The lowest CV was found for Islamabad city having total energy content of 12,587

kJ/kg, because the population in this city is significantly lower than that of other cities

in Punjab.

Figure 3. Percentage of MSW percentage by weight distribution with different waste

collection rates converted into the fractions of carbon, oxygen, sulfur, nitrogen, hydrogen, ash
content and a line plot for right y-axis as calculated calorific value (kJ/kg) used in the
ultimate analysis for six cities of Punjab.
The overall power generation depends on the CV and daily MSW generation rate,

which can become favorable for ignition if properly pretreated, such as by drying [47].

However, CV is a theoretical estimation of the elemental constituents of MSW based

on dry weights used to calculate the heat index. The city with the highest waste

18
production was Lahore, with 6500 tons/day of MSW collected, as shown in Figure 3.

In addition, revenue can be generated from CO2 eq. reduction using carbon credit

budgeting for MSW incineration.

3.2 Power generation potential using MSW incineration

Lahore, Sialkot, Faisalabad, and Gujranwala are the industrial hubs of Punjab with

various industries and high energy consumption. These industries include textiles,

ceramics, leather, electronics, tires, and batteries and contribute to Pakistan’s economy

through exports. A significant increase in energy demand and a lack of energy

provided by electricity providers make these industries vulnerable. This dramatically

affects the export of goods transported to highly competitive international markets.

Furthermore, the loss has many socioeconomic consequences for people with fewer

job opportunities and resources. Punjab lost overall $0.57 to $1.75 billion in industrial

output in the past few years owing to unserved energy and was reported as Pakistan's

most affected industrial sector. Thus, incinerating MSW may meet these industrial or

overall energy requirements within a short timeframe.

The energy generation potentials of the six megacities in Pakistan are shown in

Figure 4. All calculations were based on Eq. (2) for CV heat index, and the conversion

of CV to energy recovery potential (ERP) was selected as 25.19% [48]. In this case,

the heat recovery efficiency was considered 19%, whereas the other studies have

reported the MSW incineration efficiency between 80-90% [28]. Furthermore, the

unaccounted heat loss (9%) and station service allowance (11%) were considered for

the overall net electric power generation (kWh). As shown in Figure 4, the highest

yield of electricity generation was observed for Lahore City, with a net power

19
production of 552 kWh/ton MSW. However, in the sensitivity analysis, the overall

heat recovery production was selected for the different heat recovery potentials.

Figure 4. Waste generation rate (tons/day) in bars represented for six cities of
Punjab, while net energy power generation (kWh/ton MSW) and of six Punjab cities
suggest the MSW incineration potential for the WtE project.
The net power generation of Rawalpindi was calculated to be 675 kWh/ton MSW.

Islamabad, with an overall electric potential of 379 kWh/ton, had the lowest power

generation owing to its low population and waste generation. Faisalabad appears to

have the second highest power generation potential of 514 kWh/ton. Gujranwala has

an overall potential of 622 kWh/ton. Sialkot has an electric potential of 533 kWh/ton

MSW. Sohoo et al. [41] estimated power generation from the conversion of the

methane gas potential of MSW; however, the net power generation was lower than that

in this study. Their maximum power generation was calculated to be 41.66 kWh with

25% energy recovery potential. As presented in a similar study, the MSW incineration

20
potential has more energy output, which estimates the power potential using an

ultimate analysis [28,49]. In their evaluation, Dhaka had the highest power generation

of approximately 1,399 – 1,712 MWh, which seems to be an overestimated value

especially from the solid waste incineration. The ultimate analysis estimates are

theoretically based on the net power generation potential via complete combustion

[28].

A thermochemical analysis was performed on MSW incinerations in various cities

in Pakistan, where the overall power generation was reported to be 167.20 kWh/ton

MSW for Lahore city [9]. Based on this analysis and MSW collection, net power

generation was 1,087 kWh. Power generation potential has ambiguities in the methods

and selection of procedures. However, in this study, we estimated the potential for

MSW incineration that could be achieved by the complete combustion of MSW

fractions for the incineration of solid waste. In developed countries such as Germany,

31 industries incinerate their waste to produce electricity (2,323 MW in total) using

different fuels such as refuse-derived fuels (RDF), wood residues, organic liquids,

sawdust, paper waste, and sewage sludge [50,51]. Flamme et al. [50] reported 56

MSW/RDF technology WtE plants output potential. For instance, in 2008 at Zella-

Mehlis, the thermal firing capacity was 60 MW from the total waste of 160,000

tons/annum [51]. Moreover, many small-capacity incinerators were installed at various

locations in Germany to fulfill the energy demands of the localities.

3.3 Sensitivity analysis

3.3.1 Case-1: Scenarios on heat recovery efficiency and unaccounted heat loss

A sensitivity analysis was performed after the initial assessment of the MSW

incineration energy output. The potential of heat recovery efficiency at the rate of more

21
than 50% operational capacity of heat recovery power plants is not possible [12].

Several experiments were performed, and the heat recovery efficiencies of thermal

heat recovery power plants were tested at 19%, 21%, and 23%. Our analysis

considered the unaccounted heat losses during the burning of MSW and heat recovery

in thermal power plants. Figure 5 depicts the results of the different scenarios for the

conditions set for MSW incineration thermal heat power plants, as described in Table

S3. Figure 5 shows that more net electricity can be produced with an increase in the

heat conversion efficiency to electricity for thermal-based energy power plants. Also,

the larger cities should have more energy potential due to larger MSW generation as

compared to small and mid-size cities shown in Figure 5, which is not the case in the

analysis and large cities electricity potential remained in the range of 600 kWh/ton

MSW. Similarly medium sized MSW generation cities have shown more potential in

generation of power during the sensitivity analysis. A deeper look into the waste

characterization which requires more detail analysis for the future is required in the

future to explore more appropriate suggestions for installation of such facilities. In

conclusion, more output could be obtained if the facility could achieve 23% efficiency

in converting heat into electricity.

22
 Figure 5. Sensitivity analysis on the heat recovery efficiency and unaccounted heat
loss for the six cities of Punjab and the proposed three scenarios for the cities divided
into three categories based on waste production.

3.3.2 Case-2: CO2 emission avoidance and carbon footprints

In this analysis, CO2 emissions from both MSW incineration and open burning

were estimated. The current MSW production and its fractions were identified, and the

calculated fractions were used in Eq. (3) and (4) for the CO2 emission calculation. The

reduction in GHG emissions can be utilized for carbon-credit revenue generation. This

can aid struggling economies to avoid bulk CO2 emissions in facilities and generate

revenue from energy production and carbon credit generation. The two scenarios of

MSW incineration and open burning are shown in Figure 6 regarding CO2 avoidance.

A thorough investigation on the life-cycle assessment of MSW incineration and

landfill process of ashes in these cities of Punjab can be made similar to the

investigation reported in the literature elsewhere [52,53]. In this analysis, dry weight

was considered for the CO2 eq. emissions estimations for the case where MSW

incineration has been considered. In the open burning case for this analysis, the total

biomass from the entire city has been considered in terms of CO2 eq. generation.

23
However, for both cases Eq. (3) was used for CO2 eq. emission and is presented in the

Figure 6. The reason to perform this analysis was to showcase the effectiveness of

installing such MSW facilities. It also contributes to low CO2 eq. emissions and

indicates how much reduction of CO2 eq. can happen in two different approaches. The

open burning is a normal practice in developing countries such as Sub-Indian

Continent countries (Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh). The waste in open land gets

exposed to humidity, precipitation, and urban flooding. The waste contains more

moisture as compared to any other MSW waste treatment facility. Therefore, this

hypothetical analysis was performed for the same six cities where MSW dry weight

(MSW incineration scenario) and total weight dry weight inclusive of wet weight

(open burning) was considered for CO2 eq. emission.

Figure 6. Comparison of CO2 generation (Mt CO2-eq/year) for MSW incineration

process and open burning.

24
 Lahore had the highest percentage of GHG emission reduction in the case of MSW

incineration compared to open burning. If MSW incineration can be installed at

multiple locations and sites across Lahore, 3.39 million tons of CO2 can be avoided

with a credit revenue generation of US$ 67.8 million per annum. For Rawalpindi, the

CO2 avoidance can be 1.14 million tons with an annual revenue generation of US$

22.76 million. For Islamabad, CO2 avoidance can reach 0.123 million tons, with an

overall revenue generation of US$ 2.47 million. In Faisalabad, the MSW incineration

facility can reduce CO2 emissions by 1.56 million tons per annum with a carbon credit

revenue of US$ 31.32 million. For Gujranwala, the CO2 reduction can be 1.09 million

tons, with a revenue generation of US$ 21.93 million in a year. In Sialkot, the CO2

avoidance can be reached 0.78 million tons with a total revenue generation of US$

15.67 million in a year.

CO2 eq. reduction in the case of MSW incineration has shown greater

environmental and economic benefits as compared to open burning. Open burning is a

challenge in many areas of every city, owing to a lack of management and

infrastructure. In addition, the generation of pollutants such as PM2.5 which was not

evaluated in this study, is expected to be greatly reduced by installing MSW

incineration facilities, with several additional benefits for the environment and public

health. The construction and development of extensive infrastructure cannot be a

permanent solution. However, if latest MSW technologies were installed in the cities

studied herein, MSW associated problems could be reduced in future. Moreover,

small-scale setups in each locality inside cities can be installed to meet energy

demands and clean street surroundings piles of MSW.

25
3.3.3 Case-3: WARM model on CO2 reduction

The WARM model was developed by the United States Environmental Protection

Agency for solid-waste planners to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions using

different waste management techniques [45]. The default settings of this model were

used to estimate the GHG emissions in Mt CO2-eq. Mixed MSW was used as the

conventional method to determine the daily waste collection for each city [54]. The

incineration case was used in all simulations run in the WARM model with a 20-mile

distance as the default setting of the software, with dry weight compositions of MSW

[55].

For Lahore, the WARM model predicted a CO2 emission of 28.17 Mt CO2-eq, a

relatively higher value as the model incorporated the calculated dried weight of MSW.

Similarly, for Rawalpindi, GHG emissions were calculated as 9.45 Mt CO2-eq through

the incineration technology. In Islamabad, GHG emissions reached 1.02 Mt CO2-eq.

For Faisalabad, the model estimated GHG emissions approx. 13.0 Mt CO2-eq. In

Gujranwala, the total CO2 emission were 9.10 Mt CO2-eq. For Sialkot, the total CO2

emissions calculated using the WARM were approximately 6.50 Mt CO2-eq. Overall,

the WARM model overestimates the GHG emissions produced during MSW

incineration. However, other studies underestimated the model calculations compared

with other IPCC models [56]. Therefore, the model estimates and considers various

variables that could produce more CO2 in the current study [57]. However, the major

agenda for discussing the WARM model is to ensure GHG emission reductions. The

percentage difference in the CO2 emissions ranges for the six cities between 43.34 –

47.44%.

26
4 A comparison of the WtE potential estimation studies

A lot of literature has been found measuring the potential of Lahore and some of

the most useful and recent has been reviewed and discussed in Table 2. Unfortunately,

none of the literature has been performed on the pilot scale. All the studies are based

on calculations and estimations. The limitation of the reported literature is based on

either empirical formula or numerical models which usually assumes ideal operations.

In this study, our estimations calculated the total power generation potential in Lahore

city could be 552 kWh/ton MSW which is higher than previous studies. It could be due

to increase in the population and rapid urbanization of Lahore city. Nevertheless, the

potential of generating power from waste is possible and many industries are already

utilizing the potential of waste to generate electricity which has been shown in the next

section.

Table 2. A comparison analysis of previous studies based on different technologies used

for MSW WtE potential converted into same units for better understanding of overall energy
recovery potential. A case of Lahore or equivalent cities has been selected for better
comparison.

Ref. Method used Energy Potential Equalizing units

(kWh/ ton MSW)

[29] Therm-CHP 630 kWh/tons MSW 630

(Lahore)

[29] Bio-CHP (Lahore) 79 kWh/tons MSW 79

[27] Incineration- 48 MW/2000 tons 24

Thermal (Lahore) MSW

[30] Therm-CHP 560 kWh/ ton MSW 560

[30] Bio-CHP 220 kWh/ ton MSW 220

[61] Bio-CHP (based 64 million 1056.6

27
Ref. Method used Energy Potential Equalizing units

(kWh/ ton MSW)

on anaerobic gas m3/639,000 ton

digestion for residual organic

Lahore) waste

[62] Bio-CHP 121.9996 MW 79.74

(anaerobic /1529.85 ton MSW

digestion for organic fraction

Lahore)

[28] Incineration 0.37 MWh / ton of 370

Therm-CHP for MSW

Dhaka city

This study Therm-CHP for 552 kWh / ton of 552

Lahore MSW

5 Current thermal conversion WtE potential in Pakistan

Based on agricultural land, Pakistan has high sugar cane cultivation which

generates sugar cane bagasse as a waste product after extracting the juice of sugar cane

for crystallized sugar. The crop to residue ratio per kg of crop for sugar cane is 0.4

with annual potential of crop residue of 2,850 kilo tons having energy potential of

246,500 TJ/year [63]. Most of the sugar production industries have self-sustained their

electricity demand due to high rising commercial unit price. The industries which have

been shifted towards sustainable electricity productions and operational with gridding

network are listed in Table 3. The potential of sugar and rice industries to generate

electricity based on incineration technology has been displayed in Figure 7 [64]. Three

zones have been marked in Figure 7, which indicates the potential of electricity

28
generation from the rice husk and sugar cane bagasse waste. Zone 1 is termed as the

industries involved in the rice husk operations and are located in the far Northeast

Punjab with overall energy potential of 1.25 – 1.87 MW. In South Punjab and North

Sindh, sugar cane industries are common, and bagasse is the most produced waste in

that region which has an energy potential of 12-37 MW. Zone 3 is located in

Northwest Sindh where rice mills are presented and has an energy potential of 0.75 –

1.87 MW. The MW generation of rice husk is lower than the sugar cane bagasse waste

because of the lower heating value of rice husk is smaller than the sugar cane bagasse

[63].

Table 3. Sugar industries contributing to electricity generation based on incineration

technology and griding out to electricity authority [65].

Industry name Electric State Station

generation (MW)

Hamza Sugar Mill 16 Punjab Operational

Ethid Power 68 Punjab Operational

Generation

Almoiz Industries 46 Punjab Operational

Layyah Sugar Mill 42 Punjab Operational

Safina Sugar Mill 21 Punjab Operational

Alliance Sugar 20 Punjab Operational

Mill

29
 Figure 7. A map indicating the rice mills and sugar mills potential in MW, demonstrating
the potential of sugar cane bagasse and rice husk waste to energy using incineration.

6 Recommendations and socio-economic aspects

Other MSW technologies, such as landfilling and composting, cause many

environmental issues related to hygiene, odor, and aesthetics. Additionally, open

microbial degradation of waste generates leachate, which can seep into groundwater

reserves and contaminate freshwater resources. However, ill-managed construction and

poor management have converted these sites into dumped land. This study suggests the

advantages of MSW incineration facilities in six cities that can reduce MSW volume

and, in turn, can help solving the energy deficits. Consequently, building such facilities

is challenging for governments and authorities because of high MSW treatment costs.

The solution to these challenges is to initially charge minimal municipality charges to

alleviate financial issues. The site of the MSW incineration facility should not be

30
located within a 500 m radius of residential areas [66,67]. Local governments should

promote campaigns to educate people on reducing the load at MSW incineration

facilities owing to waste segregation. An MSW incineration facility requires skilled

labor to manage, plan, transport, and operate. Investments in incineration facilities can

provide additional job opportunities in local cities. By generating electricity and

reducing the carbon footprint, incinerating MSW can generate revenue for local

development bodies. Technology, such as GIS mapping, can be incorporated to

identify the optimal locations for the installation of MSW incineration facilities. Many

studies have been conducted on MSW route optimization and handling facilities

[67,68]. MSW bottom ash utilization in construction industry could be a viable option

in the area where it can be replaced with binding materials for concrete [69]. Another

possibility of utilization of fly ashes was used as CO2 sequestration and alternate

source to cement material [70]. Fly ash has a capability to adsorb heavy metals from

leachate which has been investigated in a study [71].Also the statistical analysis can be

implemented in the future to showcase the real potential on more comprehensive

dataset. It is affirmed that many studies which have been performed contain

uncertainty due to lack of experimental data. The estimation of such ‘confidence

intervals’ for the parameters and the computed quantities may not be easy in the future

for accurate estimations. Therefore, pilot-scale studies on real time waste to energy

projects should be encouraged to perform this kind of analysis to increase estimation

precision and accuracy.

This aspect was not considered in this study because of the lack of data available

for land-use mapping of the studied cities. Nevertheless, this study can be extended to

route the economical transfer of MSW to incineration facilities. Moreover, local

private companies can initiate the transfer of MSW to incineration facilities to promote

31
local businesses towards a more circular economy model. Managing solid waste in

urban cities poses challenges for local administrative and governmental organizations.

As in Pakistan, there is a policy for renewable energy under the UNFCC (F-CDM-

PoA-DD); however, MSW incineration cannot mark its place. Pakistan requires more

opportunities for renewable energy policies similar to many industries which are

converting waste facility to incinerator-based generation system. On the other hand,

Pakistan is signatory (or ratified) Paris Climate agreement that needs such initiatives to

reduce GHG emissions and help the country to be aligned with several Sustainable

Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations including SDG13 (Climate Action)

but other SDGs as well.

7 Conclusion

The unserved energy crisis is a major challenge for the Pakistani economy, and the

government should take initiatives in the renewable sector related to WtE projects.

Pakistan suffers from poor air quality due to infeasible waste management strategies.

According to this study, a reliable electricity distribution network based on WtE

projects through MSW incineration can be beneficial for the industrial and residential

sectors. Considering the heat loss during combustion in the incineration process, a

sensitivity analysis of the total energy recovered was also performed. Considering all

scenarios, Lahore City, with its high population, produces MSW of 3077 dry weight

tons/day and electricity of 552 kWh/ton MSW. Owing to less MSW production,

Islamabad has the lowest electricity generation potential of 379 kWh/ton MSW,

compared to other cities. Therefore, investment in cities with low energy output such

as Islamabad would not be beneficial because CAPEX would be much higher for WtE

incinerator plant than the income. To generate electricity at low cost, authorities and

governments should focus on WtE projects with appropriate feasibility studies based

32
 on sharing of accurate and reported data. Due to limitations in the energy recovery

potential, there are some uncertainties in the approach to assume better technology

adaptation. This can be overcome by developing a small-scale pilot plant first which

can be expanded to the large-scale mega project.

Disclosure statement

The authors declare no competing research to this work.

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank University of Engineering and Technology (UET) Lahore to

conduct this study via local resources. This project was supported by Researchers Supporting

Project Number [RSP-2024R7] King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Credit Author Statement

Abdul Mannan Zafar: Conceptualization, Methodology, Data Curation, Software,

Formal Analysis, Visualization, Investigation, Validation, Writing – Original Draft. Sahar

Shahid: Data curation, Investigation, Formal Analysis. Jawad Mustafa: Investigation,

Software, Writing – Original Draft. Muhammad Imran Nawaz: Validation, Investigation.

Shamas Tabreez: Investigation, Writing – Review & Editing. Sidra Iftikhar: Validation,

Writing – Review & Editing. Iftikhar Ahmed: Visualization, Validation. Elza Bontempi:

Visualization, Validation, Writing – Review & Editing. Muhammad Assad: Data curation,

Investigation, Formal Analysis. Fatima Ghafoor: Data curation, Investigation, Formal

Analysis. Saleh Al-Farraj: Writing – Review & Editing. Mika Sillanpää: Writing – Review

& Editing. Sami Souissi: Investigation, Writing – Review & Editing.

33
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 This project was supported by Researchers Supporting Project Number [RSP-

2024R7] King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Declaration of interests

☒The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal
relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

☐The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be
considered as potential competing interests:

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