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OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 17/6/2019, SPi
COMPARATIVE POLITICS
Comparative Politics is a series for researchers, teachers, and students of
political science that deals with contemporary government and politics. Global in scope,
books in the series are characterized by a stress on comparative analysis and strong
methodological rigour. The series is published in association with the European
Consortium for Political Research. For more information visit
<http://www.ecprnet.eu>
The series is edited by Emilie van Haute, Professor of Political Science,
Université libre de Bruxelles; Ferdinand Müller-Rommel, Director of the
Center for the Study of Democracy, Leuphana University; and Susan Scarrow,
John & Rebecca Moores Professor of Political Science, University of Houston.
OTHER TITLES IN THIS SERIES
Party Reform
The Causes, Challenges, and Consequences of Organizational Change
Anika Gauja
How Europeans View and Evaluate Democracy
Edited by Mónica Ferrín and Hanspeter Kriesi
Faces on the Ballot
The Personalization of Electoral Systems in Europe
Alan Renwick and Jean-Benoit Pilet
The Politics of Party Leadership
A Cross-National Perspective
Edited by William Cross and Jean-Benoit Pilet
Beyond Party Members
Changing Approaches to Partisan Mobilization
Susan E. Scarrow
Institutional Design and Party Government in Post-Communist Europe
Csaba Nikolenyi
Representing the People
A Survey among Members of Statewide and Sub-state Parliaments
Edited by Kris Deschouwer and Sam Depauw
New Parties in Old Party Systems
Persistence and Decline in Seventeen Democracies
Nicole Bolleyer
The Limits of Electoral Reform
Edited by Shaun Bowler and Todd Donovan
The Challenges of Intra-Party Democracy
Edited by William P. Cross and Richard S. Katz
OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 17/6/2019, SPi
CHRISTOFFER GREEN-PEDERSEN
1
OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 17/6/2019, SPi
3
Great Clarendon Street, Oxford, OX2 6DP,
United Kingdom
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It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship,
and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of
Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries
© Christoffer Green-Pedersen 2019
The moral rights of the author have been asserted
First Edition published in 2019
Impression: 1
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in
a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the
prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted
by law, by licence or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics
rights organization. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the
above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the
address above
You must not circulate this work in any other form
and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer
Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press
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Data available
Library of Congress Control Number: 2019931800
ISBN 978–0–19–884289–7
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Clays Ltd, Elcograf S.p.A.
Links to third party websites are provided by Oxford in good faith and
for information only. Oxford disclaims any responsibility for the materials
contained in any third party website referenced in this work.
OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 17/6/2019, SPi
Preface
This book is the result of 20 years’ interest in two topics, namely party
competition and agenda-setting. Bringing my research on these two topics
together in a book has been my ambition for many years. Beyond the
satisfaction of finally achieving this ambition, the publication of this book is
also a fantastic opportunity to thank the many people who have helped me in
doing so.
My interest in party competition has been with me since my PhD disserta-
tion. My interest in agenda-setting is actually just as old. In 1998, I took a
graduate course in agenda-setting at the University of Bergen with the late
Richard Matland and Frank Baumgartner. At that time, agenda-setting was
not on my agenda, but the course opened my eyes to the agenda-setting
literature, and I was sure that agenda-setting was on my future research
agenda. The course in Bergen was also my first meeting with Frank and his
approach to research. My own work on agenda-setting really picked up when
John Wilkerson from the University of Washington was a visiting scholar in
Aarhus in 2001 and put me in touch with his colleague Bryan Jones. A grant
from the Danish Social Science Research Council then allowed me to collect
the first data for what was to become the Danish policy agendas project. The
grant also allowed me to spend a semester at the University of Washington in
the spring of 2004. The close interaction with John and Bryan allowed me to
push the project beyond the data collection phase. Over the years, working
with Bryan, Frank, and John has been a source of enormous inspiration.
Seeing what social science looks like at its best taught me what to strive for.
Thanks to the three of you for all the support over the years.
My interaction with the scholars behind the American Policy Agendas
Project was part of what later developed into the Comparative Agendas
Project known as CAP. CAP is not really a project, but a network of scholars
with an interest in agenda-setting. Through an annual conference and many
other activities, the CAP community has become an open academic family
whose influence on this book is hard to overestimate. Thanks to all the people
who have contributed to the CAP community over the years.
My more focused work on this book began in 2012. I had just obtained the
Danish higher doctoral degree partly based on a book focused on Denmark,
and I wanted to expand the idea into a comparative book. Grants from the
Danish Social Science Research Council and the Aarhus University Research
Foundation allowed me to set up the POLIS research group. The grants also
made it possible for me to have two research stays at UNC Chapel Hill with
OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 17/6/2019, SPi
vi Preface
my family in 2012 and 2014. These two stays were unforgettable for us and
gave me the time and environment to lay the foundation for this book. Thanks
again to Frank Baumgartner for all his help in making these two stays both
possible and so rewarding. Thanks also to the UNC Political Science Depart-
ment and the Centre for European Studies and its director John D. Stephens
for hosting me.
From 2012 to 2016, the POLIS research group was a flourishing context for
discussing the ideas that I was trying to develop for the book. Thanks to the
members of the group: Flori So, Thomas Leeper, Henrik Seeberg, Gunnar
Thesen, Peter B. Mortensen, Rune Slothuus, and Rune Stubager for their
contribution to the many meetings and discussions of the group.
My alma mater, the Department of Political Science at Aarhus University
has always been a fantastic place to work. When POLIS ended, I had an
almost endless number of fantastic colleagues I could approach for comments
on drafts of chapters. Thanks to Kees van Kersbergen, Carsten Jensen, Rune
Slothuus, Henrik Seeberg, and Peter B. Mortensen for reading their way
through often several versions of the same chapter. Also thanks to Kim
Sønderskov for showing all the smart things STATA can do, which saved
me hours of work.
A number of people outside the University of Aarhus have also influenced
this book and in different ways helped me complete it. While at Chapel Hill,
Herbert Kitschelt from the neighbouring Duke University not only invited me
for niche lunches, but also commented intensively on my ideas. I am not sure
this book will convince him that party politics should be studied in this way,
but his criticism forced me to think much more clearly about my arguments.
Over the years, I have also had the great pleasure of discussing my work with
Hanspeter Kriesi. In some ways, this book is a criticism of his work, but
discussing with him is always both a pleasure and highly rewarding. Also
thanks to Tarik Abou-Chadi, who had a small role in the POLIS project, for
reading large parts of the manuscript and providing excellent feedback. The
two reviewers at OUP also deserve my thanks for careful and critical, but also
constructive engagement with the manuscript.
When I began this book project, CAP coding of party manifestos was not
available for all the countries I was interested in, so I needed the help from
other people to code the manifestos. Thanks to Nina Liljeqvist for cooper-
ation on coding the Swedish manifestos. Thanks to Isabelle Guinaudeau for
setting up the coding of the German manifestos and also for providing me
with the updated version of the French data. Furthermore, thanks to Simon
Otjes for organizing the coding of the Dutch manifestos. We also co-authored
an article (Green-Pedersen and Otjes 2017) on which Chapter 8 is partly based.
Finally, thanks to Jeroen Joly for answering all my questions on the Belgium
data and to Catherine Froi for proving the UK data. Thomas Pogunkte and
Thomas Saalfeld were very helpful in my struggle with environmental politics
OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 17/6/2019, SPi
Preface vii
in Germany, and Andrew Jordan and Roman Senninger helped me with the
EU data, which, in the end, however, did not find their way into the book.
Over the years, I have been fortunate to have the opportunity of presenting
parts of this book to a number of institutions. This includes the University
of Strathclyde, the University of Gothenburg, the University of Southern
Denmark, the Berlin Graduate School of Social Science, the University of
South Carolina, and the University of Bamberg. Thanks to the participants
on all these occasions for their many valuable inputs.
An additional factor that makes the Department of Political Science at
Aarhus University such a great place to work is the friendly and efficient
administrative staff. Thanks to Helle Bundgaard, Annette Andersen, and
Helle Hornemann Møller for their careful work with references and language
editing.
Last, but not least, thanks to those at home, my wife Lone and my kids
Jacob, Kasper, and Lea who have put up with all my frustrations during the
project and accepted the Saturdays when I was buried in the manuscript.
I could not imagine a better base at home.
I dedicate this book to my three children. When this began, they were still
kids. Now they have grown into something else, but for me they will always be
my small kids. Please remember that height is a social construction.
OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 17/6/2019, SPi
OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 17/6/2019, SPi
Table of Contents
List of Figures xi
List of Tables xiii
References 189
Index 207
OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 17/6/2019, SPi
OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 17/6/2019, SPi
List of Figures
List of Tables
1
PISA is the Programme for International Student Assessment run by the OECD. It provides
internationally comparable scores for the school abilities (reading, maths, etc.) of 15-year-old
students.
OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 14/6/2019, SPi
The issue incentive model that will be developed and tested in this book is an
attempt to increase our theoretical understanding of what shapes the issue
content of West European party politics. Theoretically, two general perspec-
tives on the issue content of party politics exist; a bottom-up and a top-down
perspective (de Vries and Marks 2012).
From a bottom-up perspective, the issue content of party politics must be
explained by the conflicts found within the electorate and the changes to this
conflict structure. A clear example of the bottom-up approach is the work by
OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 14/6/2019, SPi
A STEEP chalk bluff, starting from a river margin with the heave and
dominance of a tidal wave is Castle Hill, now crowned and mantled
by the Norman keep, the royal house, the chapel of St. George, and
the depending gardens, terraces, and slopes.
Trees beard the slope and tuft the ridge. Live waters curl and
murmur at the base. In front, low-lying meadows curtsey to the royal
hill. Outward, on the flanks, to east and west, run screens of elm and
oak, of beech and poplar; here, sinking into clough and dell: there
mounting up to smiling sward and wooded knoll. Far in the rear lie
forest glades, with walks and chases, losing themselves in distant
heath and holt. By the edges of dripping wells, which bear the names
of queen and saint, stand aged oaks, hoary with time and rich in
legend: patriarchs of the forest, wedded to the readers of all nations
by immortal verse.
A gentle eminence, the Castle Hill springs from the bosom of a
typical English scene.
WINDSOR CASTLE.