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ADVANCES
IN SYSTEM
RELIABILITY
ENGINEERING
ADVANCES
IN SYSTEM
RELIABILITY
ENGINEERING

Edited by

MANGEY RAM
J. PAULO DAVIM
Academic Press is an imprint of Elsevier
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CONTRIBUTORS

Mohini Agrawal
School of Business, Galgotias University, Greater Noida, India
Adarsh Anand
Department of Operational Research, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India
Alessandro Barbiero
Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods, Università degli Studi
di Milano, Milan, Italy
Navneet Bhatt
Department of Operational Research, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India
F. De Caro
Department of Engineering, University of Sannio, Benevento, Italy
Lirong Cui
School of Management & Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China
Ant^
onio Carlos Lopes da Costa
Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear—CDTN, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
Vanderley de Vasconcelos
Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear—CDTN, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
Chen Fang
School of Management & Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China
Soufiane Gasmi
Optimization, Modeling and Decision Support (OMAD), University of Tunis—Tunis
National Higher School of Engineering, Tunis, Tunisia
Miroslav Kvassay
Department of Informatics, University of Zilina, Zilina, Slovakia
Dongjin Lee
School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering, Arizona State
University, Tempe, AZ, United States of America
Preeti Malik
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Graphic Era Deemed to be University,
Dehradun, India
Monika Manglik
Department of Mathematics, University of Petroleum & Energy Studies, Dehradun, India
Lata Nautiyal
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Graphic Era Deemed to be University,
Dehradun, India

ix
x Contributors

Rong Pan
School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering, Arizona State
University, Tempe, AZ, United States of America
Brian A. Polin
Jerusalem College of Technology, Jerusalem, Israel
Ludmila Pustylnik
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Afeka Tel-Aviv Academic College of Engineering,
Tel Aviv, Israel
Jan Rabcan
Department of Informatics, University of Zilina, Zilina, Slovakia
Mangey Ram
Department of Mathematics, Computer Science & Engineering, Graphic Era University,
Dehradun, India
Amanda Laureano Raso
Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear—CDTN, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
Alexander Rotshtein
Department of Industrial Engineering, Jerusalem College of Technology, Jerusalem, Israel
Patrik Rusnak
Department of Informatics, University of Zilina, Zilina, Slovakia
Luis Mejia Sanchez
Cummins Inc., Columbus, IN, United States of America
Wellington Antonio Soares
Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear—CDTN, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
A. Vaccaro
Department of Engineering, University of Sannio, Benevento, Italy
D. Villacci
Department of Engineering, University of Sannio, Benevento, Italy
Sylwia Werbi nska-Wojciechowska
Department of Operation and Maintenance of Logistic Systems, Transportation Systems and
Hydraulic Systems, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Wroclaw, Poland
Petek Yontay
Intel, Inc., Chandler, AZ, United States of America
EDITORS BIOGRAPHY

Dr. Mangey Ram received a Ph.D. degree, majoring in Mathematics and

minoring in Computer Science, from G. B. Pant University of Agriculture
and Technology, Pantnagar, India. He has been a faculty member for around
10 years and has taught several core courses in pure and applied mathematics
at undergraduate, postgraduate, and doctorate levels. He is currently a pro-
fessor at Graphic Era Deemed to be University, Dehradun, India. Before
joining Graphic Era, he was a deputy manager (probationary officer) with
Syndicate Bank for a short period. He is editor-in-chief of International Jour-
nal of Mathematical, Engineering and Management Sciences and the guest editor
and member of the editorial board of various journals. He is a regular
reviewer for international journals, including IEEE, Elsevier, Springer,
Emerald, John Wiley, Taylor & Francis, and many other publishers. He
has published 131 research publications in IEEE, Taylor & Francis, Springer,
Elsevier, Emerald, World Scientific, and many other national and interna-
tional journals of repute, and also presented his works at national and inter-
national conferences. His fields of research are reliability theory and applied
mathematics. He is a senior member of the IEEE, life member of Opera-
tional Research Society of India, Society for Reliability Engineering, Qual-
ity and Operations Management in India, Indian Society of Industrial and
Applied Mathematics, member of International Association of Engineers
in Hong Kong, and Emerald Literati Network in the UK. He has been a
member of the organizing committee of a number of international and
national conferences, seminars, and workshops. He has been conferred with
“Young Scientist Award” by the Uttarakhand State Council for Science and
Technology, Dehradun, in 2009. He has been awarded the “Best Faculty
Award” in 2011 and recently Research Excellence Award in 2015 for his
significant contribution in academics and research at Graphic Era.

xi
xii Editors Biography

Dr. J. Paulo Davim received a Ph.D. degree in Mechanical Engineering in

1997, an M.Sc. degree in Mechanical Engineering (materials and
manufacturing processes) in 1991, a Mechanical Engineering degree (5 years)
in 1986 from the University of Porto (FEUP), the Aggregate title (Full
Habilitation) from the University of Coimbra in 2005, and a D.Sc. from
London Metropolitan University in 2013. He is Eur Ing by FEANI-Brussels
and senior chartered engineer by the Portuguese Institution of Engineers
with an MBA and Specialist title in Engineering and Industrial Management.
Currently, he is Professor at the Department of Mechanical Engineering of
the University of Aveiro, Portugal. He has more than 30 years of teaching
and research experience in Manufacturing, Materials and Mechanical &
Industrial Engineering with special emphasis in Machining & Tribology.
He also has an interest in Management, Engineering Education, and Higher
Education for Sustainability. He has guided large numbers of postdoctorate,
Ph.D., and Masters students as well as coordinated and participated in several
research projects. He has received several scientific awards. He has worked as
evaluator of projects for international research agencies as well as examiner
of Ph.D. theses for many universities. He is the editor-in-chief of several
international journals, guest editor of journals, book editor, book series edi-
tor, and scientific advisory for many international journals and conferences.
Presently, he is an editorial board member of 25 international journals and
acts as reviewer for more than 80 prestigious Web of Science journals. In
addition, he has also published as editor (and coeditor) more than 100 books
and as author (and coauthor) more than 10 books, 80 book chapters, and 400
articles in journals and conferences (more than 200 articles in journals
indexed in Web of Science core collection/h-index 45+/6000 + citations
and SCOPUS/h-index 52+/8000 + citations).
PREFACE

Advances in modeling and simulation is arguably one of the most multidi-

mensional topics that one can face in system reliability engineering today.
This rapid development also creates many opportunities and challenges
for both industrialists and academics, and has completely changed the global
design and system engineering environment. More modeling tasks can now
be undertaken within a computer environment using simulation and virtual
reality technologies.
Through this book, Recent Advances in System Reliability Engineering,
engineers and academicians will gain the knowledge to help them in system
reliability engineering. This book is meant for those who are pursuing
reliability engineering as a subject of study. The material is intended for
an audience at the level of postgraduate or senior undergraduate students.
That’s why system reliability engineering is now a well-recognized and
rapidly developing branch of engineering.
Topics of focus include:
• Delay-time-based maintenance modeling for technical systems
• Probabilistic and deterministic safety analysis
• Reliability-game theory
• Integrating reliability models and adaptive algorithms for wind power
forecasting
• Time-dependent analysis of series-parallel multistate systems using struc-
ture function and Markov processes
• Modeling-correlated counts in reliability engineering
• Statistical inference of an imperfect repair model with uniform distrib-
uted repair degrees
• Method of fuzzy perfectness in human reliability analysis; selection of
performance conditions
• System reliability assessment through Bayesian network modeling
• Multistate multifailures system analysis with reworking strategy and
imperfect fault coverage
• Software patch scheduling policy incorporating functional safety
standards
• Tools and techniques in software reliability modeling
Through this book, the undergraduate and postgraduate students of engineer-
ing, engineers, research scientists, and academicians will gain the knowledge

xiii
xiv Preface

to help them in their reliability courses. This book is meant for those who take
reliability and safety as a subject of study.
The editors acknowledge Elsevier for this opportunity and for their
professional support. Finally, we would like to thank all the chapter authors
for their availability for this work.

Mangey Ram
Dehradun, India
J. Paulo Davim
Aveiro, Portugal
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The editors acknowledge Elsevier and the editorial team for their adequate
and professional support during the preparation of this book. Also, we would
like to acknowledge all of the chapter authors and reviewers for their avail-
ability for work on this book project.

Mangey Ram
Graphic Era Deemed to University, Dehradun, India
J. Paulo Davim
University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal

xv
CHAPTER 1

Delay-Time-Based Maintenance
Modeling for Technical Systems—
Theory and Practice

ska-Wojciechowska
Sylwia Werbin
Department of Operation and Maintenance of Logistic Systems, Transportation Systems and Hydraulic
Systems, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Wroclaw, Poland

Abstract
This chapter will be a valuable resource for understanding the latest developments in
maintenance modeling issues in the field of delay-time approach implementation. This
chapter presents the literature review on delay-time modeling for single- and multiunit
systems. The maintenance models for single-unit systems assume two-stage or three-
stage failure processes. In the case of complex systems, the discussed problems are with
regard to models’ parameters, estimation issues, case studies analysis, or hybrid model-
ing approach implementation. The maintenance models for multiunit systems examine
the known models for nonseries systems. A case study for maintenance modeling for
multiunit systems based on a delay-time approach is provided. The directions for further
research work are defined.

Keywords: Delay-time concept, Multiunit systems, Literature review, Maintenance

modeling, Optimization

Abbreviations
AIC Akaike information criterion
BI Block Inspection
CM corrective maintenance
DT delay time
DTA delay-time approach
DTM delay-time models
ELECTRE elimination and choice expressing the reality
HPP homogeneous Poisson process
MAUT multiattribute utility theory
MC Monte Carlo
MLE maximum likelihood estimation
MRT mean repair time
MTBF mean time between failures
NHPP nonhomogeneous Poisson process
PAR proportional age reduction
PM preventive maintenance
PROMETHEE preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluations

Advances in System Reliability Engineering © 2019 Elsevier Inc.

https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-815906-4.00001-4 All rights reserved. 1
2 Advances in System Reliability Engineering

Important Notations
c(Tin) expected cost over each inspection cycle
c(Tini) expected cost over ith inspection cycle
C(Tin) total costs resulting from chosen maintenance policy
ccs clean-up cost connected with cleaning up any spillage that may result in a
failure
cin cost of inspection action performance
cp cost of preventive replacement of a unit
cr cost of failed unit replacement
din time of single inspection action performance
dp the time of preventive replacement of a system
dr time of corrective replacement of a system (after a failure)
E[x] expected value of random variable x
Ed(Tin) expected downtime in an inspection cycle of length Tin
F(t) probability distribution function of system/unit lifetime; F(t)¼1F(t)
Fh(h) probability distribution function of system delay time
fh(h) probability density function of system delay time
Fhi(h) probability distribution function of ith element delay time
fhi(h) probability density function of ith element delay time
Gh(t) probability distribution function of the initial time u, which elapses from
the beginning of operation by “as good as new” elements of a system until
the moment of first symptoms of failure occurrence
gh(t) probability density function of the initial time u, which elapses from the
beginning of operation by “as good as new” elements of a system until
the moment of first symptoms of failure occurrence
Ghi(t) probability distribution function of initial time u of ith element in a system
ghi(t) probability density function of initial time u of ith element in a system
h delay time of a defect, denoting the period between the moment of appear-
ance of the first symptoms of potential failure and the moment of an
object’s failure occurrence
ku constant rate for fault’s arrival in a technical system for any
inspection period
Mcs measure of possible impact of a failure of a piece of equipment on an
environment
Menv(Tin) environmental model of a technical object
m number of failures until element replacement
n number of elements in a system
nk minimum number of operating components to make a system function
(performance in nk-out-of-n reliability structure)
Nrin(ti–1in, tiin) expected number of failures over inspection interval (ti–1in, tiin)
pcs probability of a failure resulting in a spillage requiring clean up
pin probability of imperfect inspection occurrence
PuF(Tin) probability of a fault arising as a breakdown in a system
pw probability that, during system inspection, performance symptoms of
forthcoming failures (if they occur in a system) are identified
R(t) reliability function of a system
 Delay-Time-Based Maintenance Modeling for Technical Systems—Theory and Practice 3

RTin(t) component reliability at time t

RTinic a cubic approximation of average reliability over an ith inspection
RTiniL a linear approximation of average reliability over an ith inspection
rmr repair cost rate
r(iTin
)
(t) reliability function for a component at time t
(k)
r˙Tin(kTin) left-hand derivative of reliability function at t ¼ kTin
tf random moment of failure occurrence in a system
Tin time between inspection actions’ performance
Tini time of ith inspection cycle performance (between two consecutive inspec-
tion actions’ performance)
TM(Tin) total expected length of a renewal cycle
TM(Tini) expected length of ith inspection cycle
TOP random variable denoting system’s lifetime
TOP(Tin) expected length of element/system’s lifetime
tu moment of the first symptoms of potential failure occurrence
u initial time of a defect
δh standard deviation for normal distribution of a delay time h
δr standard deviation for normal distribution of a time to failure
λh(t) intensity function of a system delay time
λu(u) random rate for fault’s arrival in a technical system for any inspection period

1 INTRODUCTION
Many real-life systems may display some symptoms of forthcoming failure.
One example may be a production process, which may start producing
defective items after some random amount of time. If the situation is not
corrected, product quality gradually deteriorates to a level where it is self-
evident to an operator that the system has failed. By inspecting the product
quality at some intervals, the operator may be able to reduce the cost
incurred with the system lifetime [1]. These types of components may ben-
efit from an inspection policy whereby a component is inspected for a defect
and consequently replaced at inspection to prevent failure [2]. Recent
reviews on inspection maintenance modeling issues are presented in the lit-
erature [3–9].
The basic inspection models are extended by using a technique called
delay-time analysis (DTA), which was developed for modeling the conse-
quences of an inspection policy for any system [10]. This approach was first
described and investigated by Christer et al. [10–16].
This maintenance concept is based on the assumption that before a sys-
tem breaks down, there will be some signs of its reduced performance. The
time between the first identification of abnormalities (called initial point)
4 Advances in System Reliability Engineering

Delay time — during this

Initial time — during this time interval the defect
time interval the defect can be identified by an
cannot be visible inspection
u h

0 tu tf t

Time point when a fault Time point when a component

could be first identified fails if no maintenance
intervention during time h is
conducted
Fig. 1 Time-delay-modeling concept.

and the actual failure time (called failure point) is called a delay time and
determines the best opportunity to carry out maintenance or an inspection
(Fig. 1). As a result, the delay-time concept defines a two-stage process for
three-stated systems (being either in upstate, partially upstate, or in down-
state). For more information, the author recommends reading Wang
et al. [17].
The inspection schemes in delay-time models may be periodic or based
on condition-based maintenance implementation [18]. In this chapter, the
author focuses on periodic inspection maintenance modeling issues. More
information about condition-based delay-time models may be found in
the literature [19–25].
The interest in DT modeling issues has increased significantly in recent
years. Literature reviews, in which delay-time models are investigated along
with other preventive maintenance models, are given in several studies
[26–32]. The states of art works, dedicated to DT modeling, were mostly
developed in the 1990s. One of the first literature reviews was given by
Christer et al. [19], where the authors discussed a basic DT model for a
single-unit case taking into account model parameters estimation problems.
Later, the state of art was updated in Christer et al. [33]. In this work, math-
ematical methods for updating delay-time models of industrial inspection
practice are proposed. They presented a linear delay-time update method
and model parameter variation. Moreover, the authors also provide a com-
bination of these methods in the maintenance area and defines the criteria for
choosing an updating method.
Christer later presented a basic delay-time model [34] and discussed the
main development directions, including perfect/nonperfect inspection
 Delay-Time-Based Maintenance Modeling for Technical Systems—Theory and Practice 5

cases. There have been simple DT models investigated for a repairable com-
ponent and for a complex plant. Moreover, the authors focused on the prob-
lems of a parameter estimation process and DT models’ implementation
possibilities. The work ends with a discussion of further developments in
delay-time modeling. The presented state of art was further extended by
Christer [35]. In this work, the author focuses on investigation of industrial
maintenance problems and presents basic maintenance models for a repair-
able component and a complex plant. The main extensions of the basic
models include, for example, nonperfect inspection case and nonsteady-state
conditions.
One of works that provides recent advances in delay-time-based main-
tenance modeling is given by Wang [36]. In this work, the author focuses on
the main development directions in delay-time-based models. As a result, he
investigates the delay-time models for optimized inspection intervals (distin-
guishing, for example, imperfect inspection and maintenance issues or mul-
tiple inspection intervals problem) and DT modeling application areas
(including e.g., the problem of spare part inventory and maintenance
modeling or maintenance outsourcing issues). The author also defines the
main directions for further research in the analyzed maintenance area.
For more information, the author recommends further reading of the
literature [2, 6, 37, 38]. Some recent developments in this area are also avail-
able for further reading [17, 21, 39].
Following these considerations, in Fig. 2, the main classification of exist-
ing delay-time models is presented. The proposed classification divides the
known models into two main groups of inspection strategies: single- and
multiunit systems.
To sum up, the author summarizes and reviews the existing literature on
periodic delay-time maintenance modeling and clusters the existing works
into several fields, mostly based on the classification on single- and multiunit
models.

Delay time (DT) models for technical system

DT models for single-unit DT models for multiunit

system system

Models for system
with two-stage
failure process
Models for system with
three-stage failure
process
Models for complex
Models for multiunit
system
system in nonseries
reliability structure

Fig. 2 Classification scheme of delay-time models (periodic inspection).

6 Advances in System Reliability Engineering

The articles referred to in this study were found using Google Scholar as a
search engine and ScienceDirect, JStor, SpringerLink, SAGEJournals, and
Taylor & Francis as online databases. The author primarily searched the rel-
evant literature based on keywords, abstracts, and titles. The following main
terms and/or a combination of them were used for searching the literature:
delay time maintenance or inspection maintenance. As a result, 130 papers from
1982 to 2018 are reviewed in this study.
The applicability of the given maintenance approach is presented in a
case study. The case study is developed based on historical data of mainte-
nance and operation processes of four production plants (injection molding
machines) operated by an international company located in Poland.
These production plants have defined inspection policies based on ser-
vice regulations defined by a producer. However, a company finds that some
developments in this area may be useful to make further decisions.
Following this, this chapter is organized as follows. Sections 2 and 3
examine various types of delay-time modeling approaches for single- and
multiunit systems, which are the most widely known in the literature. In
Section 4, a case study is proposed to investigate the optimal inspection
interval for a four-unit system performing in a series reliability structure.
Section 5 concludes the chapter and highlights future research in DT
modeling.

2 DELAY-TIME MODELS FOR SINGLE-UNIT SYSTEMS

First, there are delay-time maintenance models for one-unit stochastically
failing or deteriorating system that were investigated in which the system’s
defective state can be detected by actual inspection. In this area, the known
models have been explored in two main dimensions: optimization of inspec-
tion policy for systems with a two-stage failure process and for systems with a
three-stage failure process. Moreover, some research works can be defined
that are aimed at investigation and development of special problems (e.g.,
case studies, comparative studies).

2.1 Delay-Time Models for Single-Unit Systems With

a Two-Stage Failure Process
The basic delay-time concept considers that the degenerative process of a sys-
tem can be divided into two stages: a normal working stage and a delayed defect
stage. For this modeling case, the main developments are given in Fig. 3.
 Delay-Time-Based Maintenance Modeling for Technical Systems—Theory and Practice 7

Models for systems with a two-stage

failure process

Systems with a Preparedness Systems with Approximation

single failure systems postponed modeling
mode maintenance case maintenance case

Systems with a
multiple
failure mode

Fig. 3 Classification scheme of delay-time models for systems with a two-stage failure
process.

2.1.1 DTM for a Single-Defect Case

One of the first developed DT models for single-unit systems is presented by
Christer [11]. In his work, the author develops the reliability model for a
single component subject to one type of inspectable defect, which will sub-
sequently lead to a failure. In the presented model, under the policy of
inspecting every Tin time unit, the author develops a function of component
reliability at time t RTin(t).
Taking into account the following main assumptions:
• a fault may arise randomly at time u since new with pdf gh(u),
• a perfect maintenance policy,
• the time required for inspection is negligible,
• variables u and h are assumed to be independent,
• a infinite horizon case,
the required reliability function RTin(t) is given by [11]:

ðiÞ
RTin ðtÞ ¼ rTin ðtÞ, where ði  1ÞTin  t < iTin (1)

where i is a positive integer and r(iTin

)
(t) is a reliability function for the com-
ponent at time t, given by the formula [11]:
(ði1Þ " ð ! #
ðiÞ
X jTin
ðijÞ
rTin ðtÞ ¼ gh ðuÞMh ðjTin  uÞdu rTin ðt  jTin Þ
j¼1 u¼ðj1ÞTin

ð∞ ðt )
+ gh ðuÞdu + gh ðuÞM ðt  uÞdu ,
u¼t u¼ði1ÞTin

where ði  1ÞTin  t < iTin (2)

8 Advances in System Reliability Engineering

where Mh(x) is defined as [11]:

ð∞
Mh ðxÞ ¼ fh ðuÞdu (3)
x

In the absence of an inspection procedure (Tin ¼ ∞), the reliability func-

tion is given by the following formula [11]:
ðt
ð1Þ
RðTin Þ ¼ R∞ ðt Þ ¼ rTin ðtÞ ¼ 1  Fh ðt  uÞgh ðuÞdu (4)
u¼0

For such a model, a numerical example is provided.

DT models for single-unit systems are later investigated in works by
Redmond and Wang [2, 17]. According to these works, there is a possibility
to define the C.d.f. of time to failure, F(x), as the convolution of u and h such
that u + h  x [2, 17]:
ðx
F ðxÞ ¼ gh ðuÞFh ðx  uÞdu (5)
u¼0

and the reliability function, R(x) ¼ 1  F(x).

Taking into account the following additional assumptions and notation
[2, 17]:
• the system is renewed at either a failure repair or at a repair done at an
inspection if a defect is identified,
• after either a failure renewal or inspection renewal, the inspection pro-
cess restarts,
• maintenance actions restore maintained components to good as new
condition,
• failures of the system are identified immediately, and repairs or replace-
ments are made as soon as possible,
• perfect inspections case, that is, every defect is assumed to be identified
during inspection action performance,
the expected cost over each cycle, c(Tin), may be defined by the following
equation [2, 17]:
ð Tin
 
c ðTin Þ ¼ cr F ðTin Þ + cp + cin gh ðuÞð1  Fh ðTin  uÞÞdu + cin ð1  Gh ðTin ÞÞ (6)
u¼0

The expected downtime Ed(Tin) of an inspection cycle of length Tin is

given as [34]:
 
Ed ðTin Þ ¼ dr  dp  din F ðTin Þ + dp Gh ðTin Þ + din (7)
 Delay-Time-Based Maintenance Modeling for Technical Systems—Theory and Practice 9

Assuming instantaneous inspection and replacement times, the expected

cycle length, TM(Tin), is given by [2, 34]:
ð Tin
TM ðTin Þ ¼ xF 0 ðxÞdx + Tin RðTin Þ (8)
x¼0

Examples of such model implementations are given in the literature [2,

17], as well as an analysis of the problem of model parameter estimation [17].
This model is later extended by Jodejko-Pietruczuk et al. [40, 41]. In one
study, the authors focus on the development of a mathematical model for a
technical object maintenance, which extends the approach used thus far and
allows analyzing the long-term operation time period of a single-unit system
[40]. The model gives the possibility to find a constant time period between
the inspection actions’ performance that is optimal due to minimal mainte-
nance costs or maximal availability criterion satisfaction. The solution is
based on Block Inspection policy implementation. The authors present ana-
lytical and Monte Carlo simulation models with comprehensive sensitivity
analysis performance. This model is an extension of a preliminary analytical
maintenance model [42].
Another extension is presented in work by Jodejko-Pietruczuk et al.
[41], where the assumption of imperfect inspections is introduced. In this
work, it is assumed that the system inspection actions are imperfect, which
means that the defect occurrence in the system is identified with the given
probability pw. In such a situation in the analyzed system, the following
maintenance actions may occur:
• preventive replacement during inspection action performance, provided
that the defect has occurred and been identified with the probability pw,
• inspection action performance without preventive replacement, pro-
vided that the defect has not occurred nor been identified with proba-
bility (1  pw).
Based on the main assumptions given earlier [40], the long-term expected
maintenance costs per unit time function is defined.

2.1.2 DTM for a Multidefect Case

One of the extensions in delay-time modeling regards consideration of more
than one type of inspectable and independent defect occurrence in a system.
The first model for single-unit systems with n different types of inspectable
defects is developed by Christer [11] and later extended by Wang [43].
Wang [43] investigated the production process subjected to two types of
deterioration. The delay-time-based inspection model was developed for
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at the end of 1902, was the death of the Hadda Mullah on December
23, when the Afghan Government devoted a sum of 30,000 rupees
towards the funeral obsequies of their sainted protégé.
The removal of the obstacles in the way of any cordial
understanding between Russia and Great Britain in respect of
Afghanistan was not assisted when, on January 14, 1903, the
Foreign Office in St. Petersburg issued, in reference to the
declaration made by Lord George Hamilton, the following
communique:
As regards Russia’s relations with Afghanistan, it is
necessary to declare that Russia addressed no request of any
sort to the British Cabinet, but simply notified it of her desire
and purpose to enter into direct relations with Afghanistan in
the future.
No further declarations were made on this subject.
If language is to have any meaning at all in diplomacy, as in
ordinary life, this utterance can only be characterised as one of the
most flagrant perversions of truth that have ever disgraced the
history of even Russian politics. Quite rightly the request of February
6, 1900, had been interpreted as a veiled demand for the right to
establish a Russian representative at Kabul. The proposal admits of
being supported by the plausible contention that such an agency
would be a convenient means of settling disputes and avoiding
collisions on the Russo-Afghan border. It must not be forgotten that it
was over almost an identical question—the reception of the Stolietoff
Mission by Shir Ali—that Great Britain fought the Second Afghan
War; and it can hardly be denied that, if the concession demanded
by the Note of 1900 were granted, the result would be to set up an
influence in Kabul hostile in spirit to our own and from the first day of
its existence there devoted to the sapping of our position.
Great inconvenience of course attaches to a system by which the
smallest detail in the adjustment of any difficulty along the Russo-
Afghan frontier must be referred for settlement from the Oxus to
Tashkent, from Tashkent to St. Petersburg, from St. Petersburg to
London, from London to the Government of India, and from the
Viceroy’s Council to Kabul where, after much delay, the same
process is repeated over the return journey. Unfortunately, the
maintenance of such a cumbersome procedure is essential to the
harmony of Anglo-Afghan relations since, although Russia professes
to require facilities for frontier intercourse in commercial matters
alone, similar protestations reduced Manchuria to the level of a
Russian protected State until Japan intervened. Great Britain does
not wish to embark upon a campaign in Central Asia and there need
be no war so long as Russia, observing the pledges which she has
given, tempers her desires with discretion. But continuation of the
mischievous interference in Persia and Afghanistan, which has
distinguished her actions hitherto, is a menace to the world’s peace,
as the indulgent nature of the British Government has now been
pushed to the limit of its endurance.
So far as Anglo-Afghan relations were concerned the New Year of
1903 held out little prospect of improvement. Possibly the mass of
business, associated with Habib Ullah’s installation as Siraj-ul-Millat
wa ud-Din, early in April, did prevent the Amir of Afghanistan from
visiting India in the spring of this year. But, aside from the irregularity
of the Amir’s behaviour, the incident of April 6, when Lieutenant-
Colonel A. C. Yate, commanding the 24th Baluchistan Infantry
Regiment and stationed at Chaman, was arrested by Afghan officials
for an innocent trespass beyond the Indo-Afghan border and
removed to the fort at Baldak Spin, may be regarded as throwing
light upon the precise quality of the bonds of amity which were
uniting the two countries. Again, serious exception could be taken at
the manner in which the Amirs of Afghanistan were employing the
permission to import munitions of war which had been granted by the
Government of India. The arrival of the thirty Krupp guns, acquired
by Abdur Rahman on the eve of his death, had revealed the
presence of a large number of castings for heavy ordnance which
had been secretly obtained from Essen by the late Amir. A small
army of carts and camels, lent by the Government of India, carried
the thirty guns from Peshawar to Jelalabad, whence forty elephants,
sent by Habib Ullah for the purpose, bore them to Kabul. Very
properly transport was denied to that part of the purchase which
disclosed Abdur Rahman’s strange dereliction of his treaty rights.
Moreover, it was not difficult for Habib Ullah to recognise the
irregularity of his father’s procedure, the immediate consequence of
which was the repudiation of the order by the son. Unhappily, before
this particular incident could be considered to have closed an
immense consignment of rifle cartridges, numbering several millions
of rounds, many of which were found to be of the explosive character
condemned by the Hague Conference, arrived from the Amir’s
agents in England. Since it never had been intended that the right to
import munitions of war accorded to the late Amir of Afghanistan
implied the power to amass an unlimited amount of war matériel in
Kabul, no other course was open to the Viceroy of India than to see
that these other stores were likewise detained by the frontier
authorities.
Something more important than considerations of prestige,
therefore, was embroiled in the indifference which the Amir of
Afghanistan displayed towards India as the paramount state, making
it incumbent upon the Government to repeat their earlier
representations. There was no need, indeed the occasion had hardly
arisen, for any violent coercion. The situation required merely such
tightening of the reins as would bring to the ruler of Kabul a proper
comprehension of the actual ties between his country and India. In
the correspondence which ensued, the Amir claimed the right to
import munitions of war under the treaty which had given similar
powers to Abdur Rahman. Unfortunately Habib Ullah had no such
right; nor was any moral obligation to honour the debit notes which
Habib Ullah had drawn every month against the Indian Treasury
attaching to the Government of India. These points were made clear
to the Amir who had neither the funds to pay for nor the authority to
order the armaments which were then waiting at the frontier. The
lesson had been driven home, and the loftiness of tone, which the
Amir of Afghanistan had adopted in the initiatory letter, was hardly
discernible in his concluding statement. Since there was no malice in
the attitude of the Government of India, the Amir of Afghanistan was
again invited to visit India for purposes of a conference with the
Viceroy. A visitation of cholera, which swept through Kabul and
North-eastern Afghanistan in 1903, the worst since the epidemic of
1879, permitted an excuse to be offered at which no exception could
be taken. Before the scourge had subsided Russia had repeated her
designs against Afghanistan. This, in view of the explicit
denouncement of her treaty requirements, implied by the
communique of January 1903, was not perhaps surprising. Their
renewal was denied by Lord Cranbourne in the House of Commons
both in the spring and autumn sessions of 1903. Nevertheless, in the
middle of February, Sirdar Ali Khan, the governor of Afghan
Turkestan, had sent to Kabul four Russian spies whom he had
arrested near Mazar-i-Sharif; but the most flagrant of these insidious
encroachments upon a British preserve occurred in the following
August, when the governor of Russian Turkestan sent back some
deserters from the Afghan army who had escaped into Russian
territory. Obviously the note of defiance in the message which
accompanied them was addressed to the suzerain power.
 It ran:
As the Tsar and the Amir are amicably disposed the one to
the other, His Imperial Majesty has given orders that every
effort shall be made to continue the friendly relations existing
between Russia and Afghanistan.
As representative of the Tsar I am directed to send back all
refugees and evil-doers who come to my territory from
Afghanistan. This is the reason why I send back to you these
eleven soldiers with their arms.
Please be kind enough to communicate this to the Amir.
In spite of these persistent endeavours to establish friendly
relations with Kabul there is little reason to believe that Habib Ullah
offered any encouragement to the Russian frontier officers.
Inveterate suspicion of foreign influence characterises every aspect
of his external policy and Russia and Great Britain are made to feel
impartially the effect of this attitude. Abdur Rahman accepted the
good faith of the Indian Government unquestioningly and understood
his northern neighbour sufficiently to realise that it was less a wish
for the friendship of Afghanistan than a desire to pin-prick India
which prompted her overtures. Habib Ullah has yet to learn how to
stand where his father strode with perfect confidence, a foolish
mistrust sapping the strength of the son. Under a less skilful
statesman than Lord Curzon it is conceivable that the patience of the
Government of India would long since have been exhausted. That
exceptional familiarity with the affairs of Asia, which preeminently
distinguishes the late Viceroy, enabling him to tread Oriental
labyrinths with wise discrimination, permitted him upon this occasion
to bridge once more a crisis between Afghanistan and India. Almost
in defiance of Kabul obstruction, he proceeded to the solution of
difficulties which did not require any personal discussion with a
refractory potentate. Early in the winter of 1903-04, the Government
of India took up for consideration those sections of the Afghan
boundary which, ever since the withdrawal of the Udny Mission eight
years previously, had required demarcation. Surprised into ruffled
acquiescence, the Amir in January 1904 began to make extensive
preparations for a meeting between Major Roos-Keppel, the chief of
the British Commission, and his own representative. Through the
brief absence of Lord Curzon from the helm of state, the vacillation
of the Amir precipitated a collapse of these plans at the last moment.
Wilfully stupid, too, only a little later—in July 1904—was Habib
Ullah’s order to Nasr Ullah Khan to select twenty-four officers who
were to be detailed as envoys to England, France, Germany, Russia,
Persia, China, Japan, Turkey and Egypt in the Old World, and
America in the New World.
If the break-down in the negotiations anent the Mohmand
boundary had increased the tension between Kabul and Calcutta, it
was certainly impossible to tolerate this more direct perversion of the
principles out of which the fabric of our relations with Afghanistan
had been woven. Concerned at the rupture which was threatening
between India and Afghanistan at a moment when Lord Curzon was
absent from India and too timid to insist upon the Amir’s acceptance
of the Viceroy’s invitation to a conference, the Imperial Government,
as the only means of renewing the Agreements upon which they
were set which remained to them, decided to despatch a Mission to
Kabul. At the instance of the Secretary of State for India, Mr. St.
John Brodrick, the acting Viceroy of India, Lord Ampthill, acquainted
Habib Ullah with the wishes of His Majesty’s Government. In reply
His Highness, with the hope of improving his position when the time
came for diplomatic discussion and as an act of conciliation towards
the Viceroy, intimated his willingness to send his son Inayat Ullah
Khan—a charming, intelligent boy of sixteen and a remarkable
instance of that youthful precocity which attains so abnormal a
development in the Oriental—to meet Lord Curzon upon his return to
India. However pressing may have been the questions outstanding
between the Government of India and the Amir of Afghanistan, the
visit of a British Mission to Kabul—no doubt desirable and in that
sense opportune—was derogatory in a Government whose
invitations to the head of the country, which it was proposed to
honour in such an emphatic fashion, had been treated with
contumacy. Lord Curzon’s opposition to the project is well-known;
but with the exception of this distinguished statesman few were
prepared for the unfortunate set back which the mission received. A
grievous miscalculation undoubtedly was made. But the blunder,
which determined its existence and brought about a complete
miscarriage of Anglo-Indian policy, lay not so much in sending the
mission as in His Majesty’s Government not having decided, if the
Amir proved recalcitrant, how far and upon what ground the Cabinet
should stand firm.

festival in honour of the dane mission

As constituted, the Mission comprised Mr., now Sir, Louis Dane,

Foreign Secretary at Simla, Mr. H. R. Dobbs—who, together with
Major Wanliss, had recently returned from replacing the boundary
pillars on the Perso-Afghan border—Major W. Malleson, R.A.,
Captain Victor Brooke, 9th Lancers, and a British doctor. Leaving
Peshawar on November 27, the mission reached Dakka on
November 29, and was met at Lundi Khana by 200 Afghan cavalry
under the Sipah Salar Ghulam Hussein, the Sarhang of Dakka, and
Mahommed Hasan Khan. Major Roos-Keppel, political agent for the
Khyber, accompanied the party for a few miles beyond Lundi Khana
to Torkhana, where a guard of honour of the Khyber Rifles was
drawn up, the mission ultimately arriving at Kabul on December 10.
Elaborate gifts were conveyed by Mr. Dane for presentation to the
Amir, among many others a £700 motor-car and several cases of
sporting equipment. As a compliment to the ladies of the harem the
Government of India thoughtfully included a cinematograph,
providing at the same time the necessary operator. Among the
presents to the Mission from his Highness were a gold watch and a
set of gold cuff links which Habib Ullah had offered to Mr. Dane. The
note struck by the negotiations was scarcely in the same pitch as the
festivities by which the withdrawal of the Mission was celebrated,
when seven gramophones simultaneously discharged bursts of
discordant revelry. Nevertheless, the din of these instruments fell on
the ears of those who had every cause to be relieved at the peaceful
termination of their labours, since the clouds had hung low over
Kabul throughout the Anglo-Afghan conferences of 1904-05.
Many things in our buffer state of course required to be improved
as much for the enhancement of its own interests as for the
advantage of India. There was the Amir’s perpetuation of Abdur
Rahman’s objection to Afghan subjects using the northern extremity
of the Quetta-Chaman railway to be discussed, as well as the
projection of railways from Chaman to Kandahar and from Peshawar
to Kabul. Besides these important subjects there were the
prolongation of the Indian system of telegraphs to Kabul and
Kandahar; the provision of telegraphic communication between
Kabul, Mazar-i-Sharif and Herat; Kabul and Kandahar; Kandahar
and Herat. The re-organisation of the Afghan army had also to be
considered, while the demarcation of the Mohmand boundary and
the Seistan border, the definition of the Amir’s control over border
tribes, the question of the subsidy and Habib Ullah’s powers in
respect of the importation of munitions of war were topics, the
examination of which would be, it was expected, to the mutual
benefit of the contracting parties in an Anglo-Afghan alliance. In India
it was understood that there might be a difficulty in the arrangement
of the terms which were to be secured from the Amir; but that
ultimately, and after protracted negotiations, our demands would be
conceded. To this end the chief of the Mission was provided with a
treaty, drawn up under the personal supervision of Lord Curzon
during his brief residence in London in 1904, which was designed to
bring about a discussion of every aspect of the old agreements with
a view to removing previous difficulties and arriving at a clear
understanding for the future.

scene of the audiences between habib ullah and sir louis dane

This treaty comprised three clauses, but Habib Ullah, simulating

annoyance at the terms of the clause which attempted to restrict the
importation of arms, would not enter into any discussion over it. After
the Mission had passed four months in the Afghan capital, the limit,
to which the Amir of Afghanistan would permit himself to go,
reproduced simply the formal renewal on both sides of the
engagements entered into between Abdur Rahman, the late Amir of
Afghanistan, and the Government of India.
The Dane Treaty therefore was as follows:
He is God, Extolled be His perfection,
His Majesty Siraj-ul-millat-wa-ud-din, Amir Habib Ullah
Khan, Independent King of the State of Afghanistan and its
Dependencies, on the one part, and the Honourable Mr. Louis
William Dane, C.S.I., Foreign Secretary of the Mighty
Government of India and the Representative of the Exalted
British Government on the other part.
 His said Majesty doth hereby agree to this, that in the
principles and in the matters of subsidiary importance of the
Treaty regarding internal and external affairs, and of the
engagements which his Highness my late father, that is, Zia-
ul-millatwaud-Din, who has found mercy, may God enlighten
his tomb! Concluded and acted upon with the Exalted British
Government, I also have acted, am acting, and will act upon
the same agreement and compact, and I will not contravene
them in any dealings or in any promise.
The said Honourable Mr. Louis William Dane does hereby
agree to this, that as to the very agreement and engagement
which the Exalted British Government concluded and acted
upon with the noble father of his Majesty Siraj-ul-millatwaud-
Din, that is, his Highness Zia-ul-millatwaud-Din, who has
found mercy, regarding internal and external affairs of
principle or subsidiary importance, I confirm them and write
that they (the British Government) will not act contrary to
those agreements and engagements in any way or at any
time.
Made on Tuesday, the 14th day of Muharram-ul-haram of
the year 1323 Hijri, corresponding to the 21st day of March of
the year 1905 a.d. (Persian Seal of Amir Habib Ullah Khan.)
This is correct. I have sealed and signed.
Amir Habib Ullah,
Louis W. Dane, Foreign Secretary,
Representing the Government of India.
Thus the situation upon the arrival of Mr. Dane from Kabul differed
in no way from that which had preceded his departure for the Afghan
capital, save that substantial concessions had been awarded to the
Amir of Afghanistan who, in return, had conceded nothing. In
addition to an astonishing and entirely unnecessary elevation in the
style and title of the ruler of Afghanistan—conveyed in the charge
“Independent King of the State of Afghanistan and its
Dependencies,” and the reference to “His Majesty,” which the
precious instrument reveals—inevitable corollaries of the transaction
were the continuation of the annual subsidy of eighteen lakhs to
Abdur Rahman’s successor, the release of the arrears—
approximately amounting to £400,000—which had been
accumulating since a little previous to the demise of the late Amir,
and the right to an unrestricted importation of arms.

escort outside the gate of the quarters occupied by the dane mission

It must not be supposed that the mere ratification of the

engagements was sufficient for the purposes of British policy in
Central Asia. Much more was needed; and, since facilities were
deliberately withheld and the Amir rejected consideration of our
pledged responsibility, it is evident that the subjugation of
Afghanistan to the interests of India is incomplete. It is of value
perhaps to have ascertained that the Amir is disaffected and
untrustworthy. There was always a doubt but it was hoped that the
affront, which he offered so sedulously to the British Government,
was due to his own conspicuous vanity rather than the manifestation
of actual ill-will. The Kabul conference made that point clear; but, as
the Imperial Government have elected to observe an impressive
reticence upon the circumstances of this unfortunate episode, it is no
less incumbent upon others to do likewise. Nothing can be gained by
revealing to the world the details of a rebuff without parallel in the
history of Indian politics, unless such acknowledgment were made to
assist public opinion in appreciating the issues involved in the
absence of any satisfactory understanding between Kabul and
Calcutta. That this course formed no part of the late Government’s
policy was disclosed on June 21, 1905, by the debate in Parliament
upon the Indian budget and, at a later date, upon Mr. Balfour’s
speech on Imperial Defence. The Ministers, who spoke on these
occasions, concealed the truth rather than stated it, and their
utterances cannot be accepted as either correct or adequate. Mr.
Balfour’s statement that the construction “of strategic railways by
Russia in Afghanistan” would provoke Great Britain to war does not
render the character of Anglo-Afghan policy more intelligible, nor
remove the disadvantages from our position. On the contrary, the
utterance was most misleading since no such contingency, as the
construction of Russian railways in Afghanistan itself, is likely to
occur until Russia is prepared to strike with all her strength in Persia
and Afghanistan. The question of Anglo-Afghan relations, therefore,
remains for solution, having given rise to a situation which was
regarded by the late Viceroy and every member of his Council with
the gravest apprehension.
 the walls of bokhara

[44] Funeral service.

APPENDICES
 APPENDIX I
names of stations on the orenburg-tashkent
railway
Name of Station and distance from Orenburg.

(1) Orenburg
(2) Myenovoi dvor
(3) Donguzskaya
(4) Mayatchnaya
(5) Iletsk (72 versts)
(6) Grigoryevskaya
(7) Ak Bulak
(8) Yaksha
(9) Yaisau
(10) Aksu
(11) Kara Tugai
(12) Kuraili
(13) Aktiubinsk (255 versts)
(14) Bish Mamak
(15) Tamdi
(16) Akkemir
(17) Kandagatch
(18) Temirskaya
(19) Ker
(20) Kuduk
(21) Emba
(22) Kirghizskaya
(23) Mugodjarskaya (400 versts)
(24) Rodniki
(25) Karaganda
(26) Kauldjir
(27) Solenaya
(28) Ulpan
(29) Tchelkar
(30) Biriuk
(31) Djilan
(32) Tuguz
(33) Kara-Tchokat
(34) Altin
(35) Saksaoulskaya
(36) Kontu
(37) Arabskoye Morye (790 v’sts)
(38) Sappak
(39) Andreevskaya
(40) Kamyshli Bash
(41) Bik Bauli
(42) Kazalinsk (942 versts)
(43) Bashkara
(44) Mai Libash (978 versts)
(45) Ak Suat
(46) Turatan
(47) Durmen Tubeh
(48) Khor Khut
(49) Karmakchi (1108 versts)
(50) Kizyl Tam
(51) Kara Ketkeu
(52) Ak-Su
(53) Teren Uzyak
(54) Kara Uzyak
(55) Perovski (1246 versts)
(56) Ber Kazau
(57) Solo Tubeh
(58) Tar Tugai
(59) Djulek (1343 versts)
(60) Skobelevo (1367 versts)
(61) Tumen Arik (1394 versts)
(62) Yani Kurgau
(63) Ak Kum
(64) Sauran
(65) Tchornak
(66) Turkestan (1514 versts)
(67) Ikan (1543 versts)
(68) Otrar (1558 versts)
(69) Kara Kungur
(70) Aris (1570 versts)
(71) Kabul Sai
(72) Uzun Sai
(73) Tchanak
(74) Sari Agatch
(75) Djilga
(76) Darbaza
(77) Keless (1740 versts)
(78) Tashkent (1762 versts)
 APPENDIX II—(A)
list of stations from tashkent to merv, with
distances from krasnovodsk and tashkent
Distance from Distance from
Name of Station.
Krasnovodsk. Tashkent.
Versts. Versts.
(1) Tashkent 1747
(2) Kauffmanskaya 1721 26
(3) Vrevskaya 1698 51
(4) Syr-Darinskaya 1672 75
(5) Golodnaya Steppe 1637 110
(6) Chernaievo 1605 142
(7) Obrutchevo 1557 190
(8) Lomakino 1548 199
(9) Jizak 1522 225
(10) Milyutinskaya 1498 249
(11) Kuropatkino 1473 274
(12) Rostovtsevo 1445 302
(13) Samarkand 1415 332
(14) Djuma 1394 353
(15) Nagornaya 1365 382
(16) Katta-Kurgan 1343 404
(17) Zirabulak 1316 431
(18) Ziadin 1291 446
(19) Kermine 1269 478
(20) Malik 1243 504
(21) Kizil-Teppe 1223 524
(22) Kuyu-Mazar 1206 541
(23) Kagan 1182 565
(24) Murgak 1160 587
(25) Yakatut 1142 605
(26) Kara-Kul 1117 630
(27) Khodja-Davlet 1098 649
(28) Farab 1078 669
(29) Charjui 1070 677
(30) Barkhani 1038 709
(31) Karaul-Kuyu 1020 727
(32) Repetek 1003 744
(33) Pesski 970 777
(34) Utch-Adja 954 793
(35) Ravnina 924 823
(36) Annenkovo 904 843
(37) Kurban-Kala 885 862
(38) Bairam-Ali 869 878
(39) Merv 842 905
 APPENDIX II—(B)
murghab valley railway

list of stations from merv to kushkinski post

with distances from krasnovodsk and merv
Height above Distance from Distance from
Station.
Caspian Sea. Merv. Krasnovodsk.
Sagenes. Versts. Versts.
Merv 118.01 — 842
Talkhatan Baba 127.06 37 879
Yulatan 134.16 56 898
Sultan-i-Band 139.55 76 918
Imam Baba 148.60 120 962
Sari Yazi 155.57 157 999
Tash Kepri 164.00 197 1039
Kala-i-Mor 202.07 244 1086
Kushkinski Post 303.04 293 1135