Big Data Mining for Climate Change

Zhihua Zhang
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BIG DATA MINING
FOR CLIMATE
CHANGE
BIG DATA MINING
FOR CLIMATE
CHANGE

ZHIHUA ZHANG
Shandong University
Jinan, China

JIANPING LI
Ocean University of China
Qingdao, China
Elsevier
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Acquisition Editor: Laura S. Kelleher
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Designer: Christian Bilbow
Typeset by VTeX
Contents

Preface xi

1. Big climate data 1

1.1. Big data sources 1
1.1.1. Earth observation big data 1
1.1.2. Climate simulation big data 3
1.2. Statistical and dynamical downscaling 6
1.3. Data assimilation 9
1.3.1. Cressman analysis 9
1.3.2. Optimal interpolation analysis 9
1.3.3. Three-dimensional variational analysis 10
1.3.4. Four-dimensional variational analysis 12
1.4. Cloud platforms 13
1.4.1. Cloud storage 14
1.4.2. Cloud computing 14
Further reading 15

2. Feature extraction of big climate data 19

2.1. Clustering 19
2.1.1. K -means clustering 19
2.1.2. Hierarchical clustering 22
2.2. Hidden Markov model 23
2.3. Expectation maximization 27
2.4. Decision trees and random forests 29
2.5. Ridge and lasso regressions 32
2.6. Linear and quadratic discriminant analysis 37
2.6.1. Bayes classifier 37
2.6.2. Linear discriminant analysis 39
2.6.3. Quadratic discriminant analysis 42
2.7. Support vector machines 43
2.7.1. Maximal margin classifier 43
2.7.2. Support vector classifiers 45
2.7.3. Support vector machines 46
2.8. Rainfall estimation 48
2.9. Flood susceptibility 49
2.10. Crop recognition 49
Further reading 50

v
vi Contents

3. Deep learning for climate patterns 53

3.1. Structure of neural networks 53
3.2. Back propagation neural networks 55
3.2.1. Activation functions 55
3.2.2. Back propagation algorithms 56
3.3. Feedforward multilayer perceptrons 58
3.4. Convolutional neural networks 67
3.5. Recurrent neural networks 69
3.5.1. Input–output recurrent model 69
3.5.2. State-space model 69
3.5.3. Recurrent multilayer perceptrons 70
3.5.4. Second-order network 70
3.6. Long short-term memory neural networks 71
3.7. Deep networks 73
3.7.1. Deep learning 73
3.7.2. Boltzmann machine 81
3.7.3. Directed logistic belief networks 84
3.7.4. Deep belief nets 87
3.8. Reinforcement learning 90
3.9. Dendroclimatic reconstructions 93
3.10. Downscaling climate variability 94
3.11. Rainfall-runoff modeling 96
Further reading 96

4. Climate networks 101

4.1. Understanding climate systems as networks 101
4.2. Degree and path 102
4.3. Matrix representation of networks 104
4.4. Clustering and betweenness 105
4.5. Cut sets 107
4.6. Trees and planar networks 108
4.7. Bipartite networks 108
4.8. Centrality 110
4.8.1. Degree centrality 110
4.8.2. Closeness centrality 110
4.8.3. Betweenness centrality 111
4.9. Similarity 112
4.9.1. Cosine similarity 112
4.9.2. Pearson similarity 113
4.10. Directed networks 114
4.11. Acyclic directed networks 114
4.12. Weighted networks 116
4.12.1. Vertex strength 116
 Contents vii

4.12.2. Weight–degree/weight–weight correlation 117

4.12.3. Weighted clustering 118
4.12.4. Shortest path 118
4.13. Random walks 118
4.14. El Niño southern oscillation 121
4.15. North Atlantic oscillation 122
Further reading 123

5. Random climate networks and entropy 127

5.1. Regular networks 127
5.1.1. Fully connected networks 127
5.1.2. Regular ring-shaped networks 127
5.1.3. Star-shaped networks 128
5.2. Random networks 129
5.2.1. Giant component 130
5.2.2. Small component 131
5.3. Configuration networks 134
5.3.1. Edge probability and common neighbor 134
5.3.2. Degree distribution 135
5.3.3. Giant components 136
5.3.4. Small components 138
5.3.5. Directed random network 142
5.4. Small-world networks 143
5.4.1. Main models 143
5.4.2. Degree distribution 143
5.4.3. Clustering 144
5.4.4. Mean distance 145
5.5. Power-law degree distribution 146
5.5.1. Price’s models 147
5.5.2. Barabasi–Albert models 149
5.6. Dynamics of random networks 151
5.7. Entropy and joint entropy 158
5.8. Conditional entropy and mutual information 161
5.9. Entropy rate 162
5.10. Entropy-based climate network 163
5.11. Entropy-based decision tree 164
Further reading 169

6. Spectra of climate networks 173

6.1. Understanding atmospheric motions via network spectra 173
6.2. Adjacency spectra 175
6.2.1. Maximum degree 177
viii Contents

6.2.2. Diameter 178

6.2.3. Paths of length k 180
6.3. Laplacian spectra 182
6.3.1. Maximum degree 183
6.3.2. Connectivity 184
6.3.3. Spanning tree 186
6.3.4. Degree sequence 187
6.3.5. Diameter 190
6.4. Spectrum centrality 193
6.4.1. Eigenvector centrality 193
6.4.2. Katz centrality 195
6.4.3. Pagerank centrality 195
6.4.4. Authority and hub centralities 195
6.5. Network eigenmodes 196
6.6. Spectra of complete networks 197
6.7. Spectra of small-world networks 200
6.8. Spectra of circuit and wheel network 203
6.9. Spectral density 204
6.10. Spectrum-based partition of networks 206
Further reading 212

7. Monte Carlo simulation of climate systems 215

7.1. Random sampling 215
7.1.1. Uniform distribution 215
7.1.2. Nonuniform distribution 216
7.1.3. Normal distribution 218
7.2. Variance reduction technique 220
7.2.1. Control variable method 220
7.2.2. Control vector method 223
7.3. Stratified sampling 226
7.4. Sample paths for Brownian motion 227
7.4.1. Cholesky and Karhounen–Loève expansions 229
7.4.2. Brownian bridge 230
7.5. Quasi-Monte Carlo method 232
7.5.1. Discrepancy 233
7.5.2. Koksma–Hlawka inequality 233
7.5.3. Van der Corput sequence 235
7.5.4. Halton sequence 235
7.5.5. Faure sequence 236
7.6. Markov chain Monte Carlo 236
7.7. Gibbs sampling 239
Further reading 240
 Contents ix

8. Sparse representation of big climate data 243

8.1. Global positioning 243
8.1.1. Multidimensional scaling 243
8.1.2. Local rigid embedding 245
8.2. Embedding rules 246
8.2.1. Attractors and fractal dimension 247
8.2.2. Delay embedding 247
8.2.3. Multichannel singular spectrum analysis 248
8.2.4. Recurrence networks 251
8.3. Sparse recovery 251
8.3.1. Sparse interpolation 251
8.3.2. Sparse approximation 252
8.3.3. Greedy algorithms 253
8.4. Sparse representation of climate modeling big data 253
8.5. Compressive sampling of remote sensing big data 260
8.5.1. s-Sparse approximation 261
8.5.2. Minimal samples 262
8.5.3. Orthogonal matching pursuit 265
8.5.4. Compressive sampling matching pursuit 268
8.5.5. Iterative hard thresholding 268
8.6. Optimality 269
8.6.1. Optimization algorithm for compressive sampling 270
8.6.2. Chambolle and Pock’s primal–dual algorithm 272
Further reading 274

9. Big-data-driven carbon emissions reduction 275

9.1. Precision agriculture 275
9.2. Oil exploitation 276
9.3. Smart buildings 278
9.4. Smart grids 279
9.5. Smart cities 281
Further reading 283

10. Big-data-driven low-carbon management 287

10.1. Large-scale data envelopment analysis 287
10.2. Natural resource management 290
10.3. Roadway network management 292
10.4. Supply chain management 293
10.5. Smart energy management 295
Further reading 297

11. Big-data-driven Arctic maritime transportation 301

11.1. Trans-Arctic routes 301
x Contents

11.2. Sea-ice remote-sensing big data 303

11.2.1. Arctic sea-ice concentration 306
11.2.2. Melt ponds 308
11.2.3. Arctic sea-ice extent 308
11.2.4. Arctic sea-ice thickness 309
11.2.5. Arctic sea-ice motion 310
11.2.6. Comprehensive integrated observation system 310
11.3. Sea-ice modeling big data 311
11.4. Arctic transport accessibility model 313
11.5. Economic and risk assessments of Arctic routes 315
11.6. Big-data-driven dynamic optimal trans-Arctic route system 317
11.7. Future prospects 320
Further reading 321

Index 325
Preface

Climate change and its environmental, economic, and social consequences

are widely recognized as the major set of interconnected problems facing
human societies. Its impacts and costs will be large, serious, and unevenly
spread globally for decades. Various big data, arising from climate change
and related fields, provide a huge amount of complex interconnected infor-
mation, but it is difficult to be analyzed deeply by using methods of classic
data analysis due to the size, variety, and dynamic nature of big data. A re-
cently emerging integrated and interdisciplinary big data mining approach
is widely suggested for climate change research.
This book offers a comprehensive range of big data theory, models, and
algorithms for climate change mechanisms and mitigation/adaption strate-
gies. Chapter 1 introduces big climate data sources, storage, distribution
platforms as well as key techniques to produce optimal big climate data.
Chapters 2 and 3 discuss deep learning and feature extraction, which does
not only facilitate the discovery of evolving patterns of climate change,
but also predict climate change impacts. Its main advantage over traditional
methods is its making full use of unknown internal mechanisms hidden
in big climate data. Chapters 4 to 6 focus on climate networks and their
spectra, which provide a cost-effective approach to analyze structural and
dynamic evolution of large-scale climate system over a wide range of spa-
tial/temporal scales, quantify the strength and range of teleconnections, and
make known the structural sensitivity and feedback mechanisms of climate
system. Any change in climate system over time can be easily/quickly de-
tected by various network measurements. Chapter 7 discusses Monte Carlo
simulation, which can be used in measuring uncertainty in climate change
predictions and examining the relative contributions of climate parame-
ters. Chapter 8 provides novel compression/storage/distribution algorithms
of climate modeling big data and remote-sensing big data. Chapters 9
and 10 focus on big-data-driven economic, technological, and manage-
ment approaches to combat climate change. The long-term mechanisms
and complexities of climate change have deep impacts on social-economic-
ecological-political-ethical systems. The combined mining of big climate
data and big economic data will help governmental, corporate, and aca-
demic leaders to identify ways to more effectively recognize the connec-
tions and trends between climate factors and socioeconomic systems, and
xi
xii Preface

to simulate and evaluate costs and benefits of carbon emission reductions

at different scales. Chapter 11 deals with big-data-driven exploitation of
trans-Arctic maritime transportation. Due to drastically reduced Arctic sea-
ice extent, navigating the Arctic is becoming increasingly commercially
feasible, especially during summer seasons. Based on the mining of big data
from Arctic sea-ice observation system and high-resolution Arctic mod-
eling, the authors designed a near real-time dynamic optimal trans-Arctic
route system to guarantee safe, secure, and efficient trans-Arctic naviga-
tion. Such dynamic routes will not only help vessel navigators to keep safe
distances from icebergs and large-size ice floes, avoid vessel accidents and
achieve the objective of safe navigation, but also help to determine the op-
timal navigation route that can save much fuel, reduce operating costs, and
reduce transportation time.
Climate change research is facing the challenge of big data. Rapid ad-
vances in big data mining are reaching into all aspects of climate change.
This book presents brandnew big data mining solutions to combat, re-
duce, and prevent climate change and its impacts, with special focuses on
deep learning, climate networks, and sparse representations. This book
also includes some aspects of big-data-driven low-carbon economy and
management, for example, trans-Arctic maritime transportation, precise
agriculture, resource allocation, smart energy, and smart cities. Many big
data algorithms and methods in this book are first introduced into the re-
search of climate change. Some unpublished/published researches of the
authors are also included.

Zhihua Zhang
Jianping Li
CHAPTER 1

Big climate data

Big climate data are being gathered mainly from remote sensing observa-
tions, in situ observations, and climate model simulations. State-of-the-art
remote sensing techniques are the most efficient and accurate approaches
for monitoring large-scale variability of global climate and environmental
changes. A comprehensive integrated observation system is being devel-
oped to incorporate various multiple active and passive microwave, visible,
and infrared satellite remote sensing data sources and in situ observation
sources. The size of various observation datasets is increasing sharply to the
terabyte, petabyte, and even exabyte scales. Past and current climatic and
environmental changes are being studied in new and dynamic ways from
such remote sensing and in situ big data. At the same time, big data from
climate model simulations is used to predict future climate change trends
and to assess related impacts. The resolution of climate models is increasing
from about 2.8 degree (latitude or longitude) to 0.1–0.5 degree. Since more
complex physical, chemical, and biological processes need to be included
in higher-resolution climate models, increasing the resolution of climate
models by a factor of two means about ten times as much computing power
will be needed. The size of output data from climate simulations is also in-
creasing sharply. Climate change predictions must be built upon these big
climate simulation datasets using evolving interdisciplinary big data mining
technologies.

1.1 Big data sources

Big data includes, but are not limited to, large-scale datasets, massive datasets
from multiple sources, real-time datasets, and cloud computing datasets.
Global warming research will be increasingly based upon usage of insights
obtained from datasets at terabyte, petabyte, and even exabyte scales from
diverse sources.

1.1.1 Earth observation big data

With the rapid development of Earth observation systems, more and more
satellites will be launched for various Earth observation missions. Petabytes
Big Data Mining for Climate Change Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc.
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-818703-6.00006-4 All rights reserved. 1
2 Big Data Mining for Climate Change

of Earth observation data have been collected and accumulated on a global

scale at an unprecedented rate, thus emerging the Earth observation big data
provides new opportunities for humans to better understand the climate
systems.
The explosively growing Earth observation big data is highly multi-
dimensional, multisource, and exists in a variety of spatial, temporal, and
spectral resolutions. Various observation conditions (for example, weather)
often result in different uncertainty ranges. Most importantly, the trans-
formation of Earth observation big data into Earth observation big value
(or the date-value transformation) needs quick support, where the fast data
access using a well-organized Earth observation data index is a key.
It is necessary to collect, access, and analyze Earth observation big
data from various Earth observation systems, such as atmosphere, hydro-
sphere, biosphere, and lithosphere to construct historical/current climate
conditions and predict future climate changes. Meanwhile, the volume,
variety, veracity, velocity, and value features of big data also pose chal-
lenges for the management, access, and analysis of Earth observation data.
In response to the Earth observation big data challenges, the intergovern-
mental group on Earth observation (GEO) proposed a 10-year plan, that
is, global Earth observation system of systems (GEOSS) for coordinating
globally distributed Earth observation systems. The GEOSS infrastruc-
ture mainly consists of Earth observation systems, Earth observation data
providers, GEOSS common infrastructure (GCI), and Earth observation
societal benefit areas. The Earth observation systems include satellite, air-
borne, and ground-based remote sensing systems. The Earth observation
data providers are NASA, NORR, USGS, SeaDataNet, et cetera. The GCI
includes the GEO portal, the GEOSS component and service registry, the
GEOSS clearinghouse, and the discovery and access broker. Earth obser-
vation benefits societal fields involving agriculture, energy, health, water,
climate, ecosystems, weather, and biodiversity.
With the increase of the data structure dimension from spatial to spa-
tiotemporal, various access requirements, including spatial, temporal, and
spatiotemporal, need to be supported. Large-scale climate and environ-
mental studies require intensive data access supported by Earth observation
data infrastructure. To access the right data, scientists need to pose data re-
trieval request with three fundamental requirements, including data topic,
data area, and time range. A mechanism to support fast data access is ur-
gently needed.
 Big climate data 3

The indexing framework for Earth observation big data is an auxiliary

data structure that constitutes logical organization of these big data and
information [44]. An Earth observation data index manages the textual,
spatial, and temporal relationship among Earth observation big data. Based
on different optimization objectives, many indexing mechanisms, includ-
ing binary index, raster index, spatial index, and spatiotemporal index, have
been proposed. The popular indexing framework consists of Earth obser-
vation data, Earth observation index, and Earth observation information
retrieval. The Earth observation data includes imagery data, vector data,
statistical data, and metadata. The Earth observation index consists of the
textual index and spatiotemporal index. It is the main component in an
indexing framework. The Earth observation information retrieval involves
data topics, data areas, and time ranges.
Earth observation data contains important textual information, such as
title, keywords, and format. The textual index extracts the textual informa-
tion from the raw data head file or directly imports from corresponding
metadata documents, such as Dublin Core, FGDC, and CSDGM, and
Lucene engine is used to split the standardized textual information. The
spatial and temporal elements are essential characteristics of the Earth ob-
servation big data. Earth observation data are collected in different regions
and time windows with various coverage and spatiotemporal resolutions, so
the spatiotemporal index can extract the spatial information and temporal
information. It is built to support Earth observation information retrieval
with spatiotemporal criteria, such as “enclose”, “intersect”, “trajectory”,
and “range”. The spatiotemporal index is a height-balanced tree structure
that contains a number of leaf nodes and non-leaf nodes. The leaf node
stores actual Earth observation information with data identifier and data
spatiotemporal coverage. The non-leaf node reorganizes the Earth obser-
vation data into a hierarchical tree structure based on their spatiotemporal
relationships. Tracing along this height-balanced tree structure, Earth ob-
servation information can be fast retrieved.

1.1.2 Climate simulation big data

With respect to climate simulations, the coupled model intercomparison
project (CMIP) has become one of the foundational elements of climate
science at present. The objective of CMIP is to better understand past,
present, and future climate change arising from natural, unforced vari-
ability, or in response to changes in radiative forcings in a multimodel
context. Its importance and scope are increasing tremendously. CMIP falls
4 Big Data Mining for Climate Change

under the direction of the working group on coupled modeling, an activ-

ity of the world climate research program. CMIP has coordinated six past
large model intercomparison projects. Analysis of big simulation data from
various CMIP experiments have been extensively used in the various in-
tergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) assessment reports of the
United States since 1990.
The latest CMIP phase 6 has a new and more federated structure and
consists of three major elements. The first element is a handful of com-
mon experiments, the DECK (diagnostic, evaluation, and characterization
of klima) experiments (klima is Greek for “climate”), and CMIP historical
simulations that will help document basic characteristics of models. The
second element is the common standards, coordination, infrastructure, and
documentation, which will facilitate the distribution of model outputs and
the characterization of the model ensemble. The third element is an en-
semble of CMIP-endorsed MIPs (model intercomparison projects), which
will build on the DECK and CMIP historical simulations to address a large
range of specific questions.
The DECK and CMIP historical simulations are necessary for all models
participating in CMIP. The DECK baseline experiments include a histori-
cal atmospheric model intercomparison project simulation (AMIP); a pre-
industrial control simulation (piControl or esm-piControl); a simulation
forced by an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 (abrupt-4 × CO2 ), and a simu-
lation forced by a 1% yr−1 CO2 increase (1pctCO2 ). The first two DECK
control simulations, AMIP and preindustrial, can evaluate the atmospheric
model and the coupled system. The last two DECK climate change ex-
periments, abrupt-4 × CO2 and 1pctCO2 , can reveal fundamental forcing
and feedback response characteristics of models. The CMIP historical sim-
ulation (historical or esm-hist) spans the period of extensive instrumental
temperature measurements from 1850 to the near present.
The scientific backdrop for CMIP6 is the seven world climate research
programme (WCRP) grand science challenges as follows:
• advancing understanding of the role of clouds in the general atmo-
spheric circulation and climate sensitivity;
• assessing the response of the cryosphere to a warming climate and its
global consequences;
• assessing climate extremes, what controls them, how they have
changed in the past and how they might change in the future;
• understanding the factors that control water availability over land;
 Big climate data 5

• understanding and predicting regional sea level change and its coastal
impacts;
• improving near-term climate prediction, and
• determining how biogeochemical cycles and feedback control green-
house gas concentrations and climate change.
Based on this scientific background, CMIP6 addressed three science
questions that are at the center of CMIP6:
(a) How does the Earth system respond to forcing?
(b) What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?
(c) How to assess future climate changes given internal climate variabil-
ity, predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios?
The CMIP6 provided also a number of additional experiments. The
CMIP6-endorsed MIPs show broad coverage and distribution across the
three CMIP6 science questions, and all are linked to the WCRP GCs. Of
the 21 CMIP6-endorsed MIPs, 4 are diagnostic in nature, which define
and analyze additional output, but do not require additional experiments.
In the remaining 17 MIPs, a total of around 190 experiments have been
proposed resulting in 40,000 model simulation years. The following are the
names of the 21 CMIP6-endorsed MIPs:
• Aerosols and chemistry model intercomparison project (AerChem-
MIP)
• Coupled climate carbon cycle model intercomparison project
4
(C MIP)
• Cloud feedback model intercomparison project (CFMIP)
• Detection and attribution model intercomparison project (DAMIP)
• Decadal climate prediction project (DCPP)
• Flux-anomaly forced model intercomparison project (FAFMIP)
• Geoengineering model intercomparison project (GeoMIP)
• High-resolution model intercomparison project (HighResMIP)
• Ice sheet model intercomparison project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6)
• Land surface snow and soil moisture (LS3MIP)
• Land-use model intercomparison project (LUMIP)
• Ocean model intercomparison project (OMIP)
• Paleoclimate modeling intercomparison project (PMIP)
• Radiative forcing model intercomparison project (RFMIP)
• Scenario model intercomparison project (ScenarioMIP)
6 Big Data Mining for Climate Change

• Volcanic forcings model intercomparison project (VolMIP)

• Coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX)
• Dynamics and variability model intercomparison project (Dyn-
VarMIP)
• Sea ice model intercomparison project (SIMIP)
• Vulnerability, impacts, adaptation and climate services advisory board
(VIACS AB)
The science topics addressed by these CMIP6-endorsed MIPs include
mainly chemistry/aerosols, carbon cycle, clouds/circulation, characteriz-
ing forcings, decadal prediction, ocean/land/ice, geoengineering, regional
phenomena, land use, paleo, scenarios, and impacts.

1.2 Statistical and dynamical downscaling

Global climate models (GCMs) can simulate the Earth’s climate via physical
equations governing atmospheric, oceanic, and biotic processes, interac-
tions, and feedbacks. They are the primary tools that provide reasonably
accurate global-, hemispheric-, and continental-scale climate information
and are used to understand past, present, and future climate change under
increased greenhouse gas concentration scenarios. A GCM is composed of
many grid cells that represent horizontal and vertical areas on the Earth’s
surface, and each modeled grid cell is homogeneous. In each of the cells,
GCMs computes water vapor and cloud atmospheric interactions, direct
and indirect effects of aerosols on radiation and precipitation, changes in
snow cover and sea ice, the storage of heat in soils and oceans, surfaces
fluxes of heat and moisture, large-scale transport of heat and water by the
atmosphere and oceans, and so on [42]. The resolution of GCMs is gener-
ally quite coarse, so GCMs cannot account for fine-scale heterogeneity of
climate variability and change. Fine-scale heterogeneities are important for
decision-makers, who require information at fine scales. Fine-scale climate
information can be derived based on the assumption that the local climate is
conditioned by interactions between large-scale atmospheric characteristics
and local features [26].
The downscaling process of the coarse GCM output can provide more
realistic information at finer scale, capturing subgrid scale contrasts and
inhomogeneities. Downscaling can be performed on both spatial and tem-
poral dimensions of climate projections. Spatial downscaling refers to the
methods used to derive finer-resolution of spatial climate information from
the coarser-resolution GCM output. Temporal downscaling refers to the
 Big climate data 7

methods used to derive fine-scale temporal climate information from the

GCM output.
To derive climate projections at scales that decision makers desire, two
principal approaches to combine the information on local conditions with
large-scale climate projections are dynamical downscaling and statistical
downscaling [27,28].
(i) Dynamical downscaling approach
Dynamical downscaling refers to the use of a regional climate model
(RCM) with high resolution and additional regional information driven by
GCM outputs to simulate regional climate. An RCM is similar to a GCM
in its principles and takes the large-scale atmospheric information supplied
by GCM outputs and incorporates many complex processes, such as topog-
raphy and surface heterogeneities, to generate realistic climate information
at a finer spatial resolution. Since the RCM is nested in a GCM, the over-
all quality of dynamically downscaled RCM output is tied to the accuracy
of the large-scale forcing of the GCM and its biases [35]. In the down-
scaling process, the most commonly used RCMs include the US regional
climate model version 3 (RegCM3), the Canadian regional climate model
(CRCM), the UK met office, the Hadley center’s regional climate model
version 3 (HadRM 3), the German regional climate model (REMO), The
Dutch regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO), and the German
HIRHAM, which combines the dynamics of the high resolution limited
area model and the European center–Hamburg model (HIRHAM).
Various regional climate change assessment projects provide high-
resolution climate change scenarios for specific regions. These projects
provide an important source of regional projections and additional infor-
mation about RCMs and methods. The main projects include prediction of
regional scenarios and uncertainties for defining European climate change
risks and effects (PRUDENCE), ENSEMBLE-based predictions of cli-
mate change and their impacts (ENSEMBLES), Climate change assessment
and impact studies (CLARIS), North American regional climate change
assessment program (NARCCAP), Coordinated regional climate down-
scaling experiment (CORDEX), African monsoon multidisplinary analyses
(AMMA), and statistical and regional dynamical downscaling of extremes
for European regions (STARDEX).
(ii) Statistical downscaling approach
Statistical downscaling involves the establishment of empirical relation-
ships between historical large-scale atmospheric and local climate charac-
teristics. Once a relationship has been determined and validated, future
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[Contents]
 LOK AND HER CHILDREN

CHARACTER

Lok Bear

Lok was a widow with two children; she lived with her mother. The
old woman took care of the roots. She put them in a hole and slept
with her head near it. When her daughter brought roots home and
poured them into the hole, the children wanted some of them to eat,
but the old woman said: “First I must give roots to the fire, to the
mountains, the trees, the house, and the springs.” (This is the
custom.)

The daughter said: “My children are hungry; you must give them
some of the roots.”

Lok said: “You don’t know about these things. If they get sick, you
will blame me.”

The old woman took roots and talked to the mountains; she said:
“You must give us wood that won’t burn us.” To the springs she said:
“Old grandmother, you always have water under your care; give us
plenty of good water.” To the house she said: “You know us, our
house that we built.” She talked to each part of the house. (If people
didn’t talk to the posts of the house they would fall. The woman who
told this myth said she had known of such cases.) To the posts she
said: “Hold up this house; be good to us.”
She packed away all the roots they dug, ten large basketfuls, then
she and her daughter brought in wood enough to last till spring.

The old woman said: “Grandchildren, I want you to bring me gum

from the cedar trees.” When they brought it, she covered her face
with it and stopped up her eyes. Then she lay down with her head
over the hole and didn’t go out of the house again all winter. Some
mornings she woke [204]up and gave a handful of roots to the
children. In the night, when the children were asleep, she ate plenty
of roots herself.

One morning her daughter asked: “How is it that rats are always
gnawing; why don’t you kill them?”

“I wish you wouldn’t listen to everything,” said the old woman.

One morning she said to the little girl: “I wish you wouldn’t cry in the
night.”

The mother said: “You don’t give the children enough to eat; they are
hungry.”

“You don’t know about the winter,” said the old woman. “It’s going to
be long, and our roots won’t last: the snow will be deep yet.”

The children were hungry, but their mother said: “You mustn’t cry, it
makes your grandmother worse.”

The boy said: “Let us kill her; she has no eyes.”

“If we tried to kill her, she would kill us; you are small and I couldn’t
run fast enough to get away from her.”

“What are you whispering about?” asked the grandmother.

“The children talk low because they are weak; you are starving them
to death.”

One morning old Lok asked: “Which way does the snow come?”

The boy looked out, and said: “It comes from the north.”

“That shows it will be good weather to-morrow.” She gave the

children a few roots.

The next day the old woman said: “I wish I had some meat to eat.”

“Stop!” said her daughter. “Don’t talk like that.” She was afraid that
her mother wanted to kill the children and eat them.

The next morning the grandmother asked: “How does the sky look?”

The little boy said: “There are clouds.”

“Where are the clouds?”

“They are around Omisna.”

“That means rain,” said the old woman. “It won’t be long till spring
comes.” She took out plenty of roots [205]and pounded them for the
children. (They were fooling her.)

The next day she sent the little girl to look at Mlaiksi.

The girl said: “Smoke is rising from the top of the mountain, as if
someone had made a fire up there.”

The old woman was taking out a few roots, but she poured them
back, and said: “There is going to be a great storm.”
The storm came. It put out their fire, and for four days old Lok didn’t
move. Five days the children were without anything to eat; then she
asked the little boy: “How does it look now?”

“It is raining.”

The old woman said: “If it rains, you can go and dig roots.”

The daughter cried and told her the children were starving. She gave
them a few roots. The little boy said to his mother: “Why can’t we dig
a hole near the roots and steal some of them?”

“I know what you are talking about,” said the old woman. “I know that
it is winter yet.”

One morning she asked: “Is it spring?”

Her daughter said: “I don’t know,” and she told the children not to tell
their grandmother anything about the weather. It rained and hailed.
Every night the mother and children cried. Each morning they
stamped on the ground to find out if it were soft. One day the mother
went off, and when she came back she brought a few roots. The
children were sitting out of doors, and she heard the old woman ask
them: “Where is your mother?”

“She has gone for wood,” said the boy.

The mother put away some of the roots and gave the rest to the
children.

The old woman asked: “Does it snow yet?”

The little boy said: “There is so much snow that I can’t see the tops
of the trees.”
The grandmother put more gum on her eyes, rolled herself up tight,
and lay still.

The mother made two pairs of straw moccasins, and the next
morning started for roots. It was spring now, and she [206]found
plenty for her children to eat. While she was gone, the old woman
asked: “Which way is the wind?”

“From the southwest,” said the boy. His mother had told him to fool
his grandmother, and let her lie there all summer. The mother could
make the wind blow—the wind was her medicine. Every time she
found a fly in the house, she killed it with a porcupine quill, so the old
woman wouldn’t know it was spring.

There were a good many of the Lok people around the place where
the mother dug roots; she left some roots for them to take care of,
and said: “In two days I will come back and bring my children.”

When she got home, she made moccasins for the children, and in
the morning, when she was ready to start, she said to her mother: “It
snows. I am tired of packing wood; I am going to take the children to
the woods and keep a fire there; you never stay by the fire.”

The mother worked all day and dug a great many roots; she had a
big basketful to put away. She wondered where she could put them
so the old woman couldn’t find them. Then she thought of Keŏnise, a
hill where Lok didn’t go. It was a long way off, but she carried the
roots there and hid them.

When the children didn’t come back, the grandmother scratched

around in the ashes, found live coals and melted the gum out of her
eyes; then she tracked her daughter.
As soon as the daughter knew that her mother was coming, she
went to the house, took the roots out of the hole, and threw them
around everywhere.

When the old woman came back, the daughter said: “We won’t be
persons any longer. In later times people will kill and eat us.”

The old woman said: “It is better so.”

They wandered off to the mountains, and from that time only a male
bear and female bear live together, and they never have more than
two children. [207]
[Contents]
 GÄK AND THE KAIUTOIS BROTHERS

CHARACTERS

Gäk Crow Skóŭks Woodtick

Kaiutois Wolf Tcûskai Weasel
Kaltsik Spider Tciwididik Road Runner
Kéwe Eel Tskel Mink
Pakol Deer

The eldest of the five Kaiutois brothers was a great man. The
brothers were all good hunters; they had plenty to eat and to wear.
Gäk lived near them, and when they went to hunt, he followed to find
the game that ran off and died.

One day the brothers asked Gäk to go with them to visit Tskel and
Tcûskai. They made deerskin moccasins to wear on the journey and
told Gäk to make himself a pair out of antelope skin. They wanted to
start before daylight. Gäk woke early and called the brothers.

They said: “We are up already,” but they were not.

Gäk said: “That isn’t true; nobody in the world can beat me in getting
up.”

The brothers told Gäk to walk behind them. They traveled all day,
then camped. That night Gäk’s medicine, slikwis (the fire-drill), woke
him, and said: “Swallow me!” The youngest of the Kaiutois brothers
thought: “How can Gäk swallow his fire-drill?” That minute the drill
stuck in Gäk’s throat and choked him.
The eldest brother said: “Whoever thought this must unthink it, then
Gäk will unchoke. If he dies, people will say we killed him. Who
thought about his swallowing his slikwis?”

The youngest brother said: “I thought: ‘He can’t swallow such a long
stick,’ but I don’t know how to unthink it, or how to talk the slikwis out
of his throat.” [208]

For a minute Kaiutois held his head in his hands—Gäk was almost
dead—then he said to Gäk: “Since that is your medicine, it must
come out of your throat.” The drill came out right away.

Gäk’s mother knew that he was choking, for the little fire-drill, that he
had hung up in the smoke hole at home, fell.

The next day they got to Tskel’s house. Tskel was glad to see them;
he told Tcûskai not to play tricks with the Kaiutois brothers or Gäk,
for they were his kin.

Tskel and Tcûskai got deer meat for their visitors and Skóŭks, Tskel’s
wife, cooked it. Tcûskai watched the men.

Gäk was ashamed of his moccasins; he took down Tcûskai’s quiver

and his own, and said: “Let’s go and hunt.”

Tcûskai wouldn’t go; he looked at Gäk’s feet, and began to bother

him. Gäk tried to hide his feet, then Tcûskai asked one of the five
brothers: “Why don’t that old fellow sit still?”

Gäk got mad and wanted to go home. The eldest Kaiutois told him
not to feel badly, but to stay; for those men were his kin.

Tskel said: “I am glad you came. My brother is so full of mischief that

I can’t go visiting. I hunt, but many deer get away from me and die in
the woods.”
“Gäk can track deer,” said Kaiutois; “he always finds ours.”

Tskel said: “I will go and tell him where I killed a deer yesterday;
maybe he can find it.”

Tcûskai wanted to go, but Tskel told him to stay at home, that they
would come back as soon as they found the deer.

Gäk tracked the deer and found it among brush and fallen trees. He
called to Tskel: “Here it is!”

They skinned the deer. It was as fresh as if just killed. They made a
fire and cooked some of the meat, then they started for home.

Tskel asked Kaiutois if he would let Gäk stay with him a while.

Kaiutois said: “Your brother is bad; he would tease him. My brothers

never meddle with him; your brother might make him mad and he
would kill you.” [209]

Tcûskai ran out to meet them. He asked: “Did old Gäk find that
deer?”

Tskel scolded him, told him not to talk so much.

At that time people softened deerskins by soaking them in water and

then chewing them. Old man Kéwe lived near Tskel’s, and he always
chewed skins for him. Tskel gave Gäk the skin for finding the deer,
and Kéwe chewed it for him.

The next day Kaiutois said: “We must go home now.” While they
were getting ready, Tcûskai stole Gäk’s fire-drill. He took it to a
muddy place, stuck it in the ground, and tried to break it.

Gäk fell backwards, blood came out of his mouth, and he died.
The Kaiutois brothers were scared, they didn’t know what to do.
They didn’t know what had made Gäk die.

Tskel looked in Gäk’s quiver and saw that the fire-drill was gone;
then he went to look for Tcûskai. He found him at the spring, trying to
catch fish with Gäk’s fire-drill. Tskel caught hold of his brother,
dragged him along, threw him into the house and pounded him till he
killed him. Then he asked the brothers how Gäk could be brought to
life. They didn’t know.

Tskel said: “If Gäk comes back to life, my brother will live again; but if
he stays dead, my brother will stay dead. I never taught him to treat
people this way.”

Tskel had red paint that was boiled; he gave it to the youngest
brother and told him to paint Gäk’s fire-drill over, make it nice and
red. When that was done, he laid the fire-drill on Gäk’s head.

After a long time, the drill brought Gäk to life; then he sang to the
earth and wind, and tried to cure himself. When Tskel saw that Gäk
was alive, he stepped five times over Tcûskai’s body. Then Tcûskai
jumped up, and said: “Oh, I’ve slept a long time.”

The five brothers and Gäk went home, and Tskel took a deerskin to
old man Kéwe, to have him chew it soft. When he came back, he
said to Tcûskai: “Stay in the house. Don’t go to old man Kéwe and
bother him.” [210]

Tcûskai thought: “I wonder why Tskel don’t want me to go to Kéwe’s

house.” As soon as he had a chance, he slipped out and went there.

Kéwe was chewing the skin; he had all of it in his mouth except one
little end. Tcûskai took hold of that end and pulled the whole skin out
of the old man’s mouth. At the same time he pulled out all of Kéwe’s
teeth but two.

Kéwe was so mad that he said: “As long as people live, deerskins
will be good as far as I have chewed this one, but the end I haven’t
chewed will be hard and rough.” And as Kéwe said, so it is. And
since that time Kéwe people have but two teeth.

Tcûskai carried the skin home, and said: “I found old Kéwe eating up
our deerskin; I got it away from him.” Tskel was mad; he scolded
Tcûskai and struck him with a stick.

When the five brothers got home, Gäk’s mother was crying. She said
to Gäk: “You must never go away again; I have always told you that
some one would find it easy to kill you.”

Old man Wus chewed deerskins for the Kaiutois brothers. One day
when a skin was stretched out to dry, a coal fell on it and burned a
hole. Wus was scared; he didn’t know what the brothers would do.

When they came home, they found him crying. The elder brother
asked: “What are you crying for?”

“A coal fell on the deerskin, and burned it.”

The brothers laughed and made fun of Wus, said: “A man shouldn’t
cry for such a thing; you will never be of much account. You will be
poor and always be hunting for something to eat. Take the skin and
make moccasins for yourself.”

Wus was glad to get the skin, for the brothers didn’t give him much.
The next day he said: “I left my mother a long time ago, I must go
and see her.”
The brothers gave him dried meat to carry to her, and told him to
come back soon, and chew skins for them.

On the way home, Wus forgot about the Kaiutois brothers. His
mother was almost starved; the dried meat didn’t last long; Wus and
his mother were soon poor and hungry. Wus [211]hunted mice, but he
gave only the smallest ones to his mother; sometimes he gave her
only the heads.

One day, when Wus was hunting, a Pakol girl came to the house to
borrow grass to make a cap.

Old woman Wus said to the house: “Grow small!”

The girl asked: “Why is the house getting small?”

The old woman said: “That is always the way it does when a
stranger comes; you can creep out backwards.” She made the awl
over the door grow long. It stuck in the girl’s head and killed her. The
old woman cut up the body; then she thought: “I will pay my son for
feeding me mouse heads.” She took a dry old piece of an intestine
and talked to it; said: “Go out there on the flat and when it is dark
burn like a camp fire, and talk as if there were a lot of people sitting
by a fire. When you see Wus coming, go farther and farther, draw
him away as far as the great water.”

The old woman cleaned up the blood, so Wus wouldn’t see that
anything had been killed in the house; then she cooked a piece of
meat and hid it under her blanket.

When Wus came with mice his mother cooked them for him. He ate
the bodies and gave her the heads. While she crunched the heads,
she ate meat, too.
Wus listened; he thought that his mother was eating something
besides mouse heads. Right away he jumped up and asked: “What
are you eating?”

“I am eating mouse heads. How could I get anything else to eat?”

Again she ate heads and meat.

Wus searched till he found the piece of cooked meat.

“Where did you get this?” asked he.

“Your uncles were here a little while ago, they have plenty of deer
meat.”

“Why didn’t they give you more?”

“They are near here now. If you look out, you will see their camp.
They couldn’t go far, for they had a heavy load.”

Wus looked out; he saw the fire and heard people talking. “I am
going over there!” said he, and he started off on a run. When he
thought he was almost there, the fire and the talking [212]were farther
off. He ran very fast, but couldn’t get to the fire; it was always a little
ahead of him. Each time he said: “Now I shall jump right down by it,”
but he never got any nearer than he was when he started.

Wus was a fast runner; from a flat, with one jump, he reached the
top of a high mountain. When he wanted to run very fast, he called:
“Wich! wich!” When he wanted to go slow, he said: “Hach! hach!” In
one night he got near the great water. When the sun came up, he
was on a high mountain. Looking down, he saw a fire, and men
roasting meat and talking, and throwing knives at one another. Wus
said: “Now I shall be there!” He called: “Wich! wich!” and made a
running leap. He came down where he thought the camp was, but he
found only sand; the fire was far off on the water. He turned back,
but he was too weak to walk; he lay down on the ground, and began
to cry.

Tciwididik heard him; she was his aunt. She came, pushed him with
her foot, and said: “Your mother fooled you; she wanted to kill you.
You shouldn’t always do what people tell you to.” She put Wus in her
basket and took him to her house. When he was almost well, she
carried him part way home. He traveled many days, camping each
night. He spent the last night in Kaltsik’s house.

Wus’ mother had cut her hair off and covered her head with pitch;
she was mourning. When she saw Wus, she screamed, she was so
glad. She rubbed deer marrow on his body and cured him; he got fat.
They moved to a new place where there were lots of black crickets.
Sometimes Wus killed a basketful in a day, and he and his mother
had plenty to eat. [213]
[Contents]
 WAR BETWEEN BEASTS AND BIRDS

Once there was a war between beasts and birds. Bat was on birds’
side. In the first battle, the birds were badly beaten. As soon as Bat
saw that the battle was going against them, he crept away, hid under
a log, and stayed there till the fight was over.

When the animals were going home, Bat slipped in among them.

After they had gone some distance, they saw him, and asked one
another: “How is this? Bat is one of the men who fought against us?”

Bat heard them, and he said: “Oh, no! I am one of you; I don’t belong
to the bird people. Did you ever see one of those people who had
double teeth? Go and look in their mouths, and see if they have. If
you find one bird with double teeth, you can say that I belong to the
bird people. But I don’t; I am one of your own people.”

They didn’t say anything more; they let Bat stay with them.

Soon after, there was another battle; in that battle birds won. As
Bat’s side was getting beaten, he slipped away and hid under a log.
When the battle was over, and birds were going home, Bat went in
among them.

When they noticed him, they said: “You are our enemy, we saw you
fighting against us.”

“Oh, no,” said Bat, “I am one of you; I don’t belong to those beasts.
Did you ever see one of those people who had wings?”

They didn’t say anything more; they let him stay with them.
So Bat went back and forth as long as the war lasted. At the end of
the war, birds and beasts held a council to see what to do with him.
At last they said to Bat: “Hereafter, you will fly around alone at night,
and will never have any friends, either among those that fly, or those
that walk.” [214]
[Contents]