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RETHINKING PEACE AND CONFLICT STUDIES
SERIES EDITORS:
OLIVER P. RICHMOND · ANNIKA BJÖRKDAHL · GËZIM VISOKA
Existential Risks
in Peace and
Conflict Studies
Noah B. Taylor
Rethinking Peace and Conflict Studies
Series Editors
Oliver P. Richmond
University of Manchester
Manchester, UK
Annika Björkdahl
Department of Political Science
Lund University
Lund, Sweden
Gëzim Visoka
Dublin City University
Dublin, Ireland
This agenda-setting series of research monographs, now more than a
decade old, provides an interdisciplinary forum aimed at advancing inno-
vative new agendas for peace and conflict studies in International Relations.
Many of the critical volumes the series has so far hosted have contributed
to new avenues of analysis directly or indirectly related to the search for
positive, emancipatory, and hybrid forms of peace. Constructive critiques
of liberal peace, hybrid peace, everyday contributions to peace, the role of
civil society and social movements, international actors and networks, as
well as a range of different dimensions of peace (from peacebuilding, state-
building, youth contributions, photography, and many case studies) have
been explored so far. The series raises important political questions about
what peace is, whose peace and peace for whom, as well as where peace
takes place. In doing so, it offers new and interdisciplinary perspectives on
the development of the international peace architecture, peace processes,
UN peacebuilding, peacekeeping and mediation, statebuilding, and local-
ised peace formation in practice and in theory. It examines their implica-
tions for the development of local peace agency and the connection
between emancipatory forms of peace and global justice, which remain
crucial in different conflict-affected regions around the world. This series’
contributions offer both theoretical and empirical insights into many of
the world's most intractable conflicts, also investigating increasingly sig-
nificant evidence about blockages to peace.
This series is indexed by Scopus.
Noah B. Taylor
Existential Risks in
Peace and Conflict
Studies
Noah B. Taylor
Universität Innsbruck
Innsbruck, Austria
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer
Nature Switzerland AG 2023
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the
Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of
translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on
microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval,
electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now
known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are
exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information
in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the
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the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The
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institutional affiliations.
This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature
Switzerland AG.
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
To all who have come before, and all those yet to
Acknowledgments
vii
Contents
1 Introduction 1
2 Foundations 5
9 Conclusion205
Index211
ix
CHAPTER 1
Introduction
I have thought about the end of the world for as long as I can remem-
ber. When I was young, a fear of death drove my fascination with the
apocalypse. For me, the tragedy of death, myself or my loved one, was that
we must go on without the other. The idea of the end of the world held
freedom from fear because there would be nothing nor no one to miss or
to be missed. Over time I began to study how the world may end. My
namesake, Noah, is known for saving life from a prototypical antediluvian
existential risk.
Robert Frost’s poem “Fire and Ice” was the first poem I memorized in
school. The poem introduces two classical Greek elements; the first, fire,
often used to symbolize power, action, and the gift Prometheus stole, here
This book explores the topic of peace and the long-term survival of the
human species. The departure point for this text is that both fields could
benefit from each other. PCS would benefit from the future emphasis that
comes from ERS, while ERS could benefit from the relational focus of
PCS. To this end, this text draws from the field of ERS, which has been
developed precisely to find ways of envisioning humanity’s long-term
future, possible threats to human survival, and methods for addressing
those risks. This text lays out a theoretical framework for drawing on per-
spectives from ERS to contribute new ways of thinking about the future
of peace research. Experts in PCS need to be involved in discussions
regarding the future. PCS offers perspectives that will be complementary
to better decision-making on issues that will affect the future.
I begin with a brief history of both fields focusing on the historical
contexts in which they developed. I then summarize the current state of
the art in both fields and engage with critical philosophical questions at
the intersection between PCS and ERS. The second question examines
the intersection between these two fields focusing on each field’s under-
standing of time, prioritization, and values.
With the overall frame of the discussion established, I make the case for
five research topics in PCS that are both current topics of concern yet
require a substantial understanding of existential risks and frameworks for
looking toward the future. Each of these topics is defined and discussed.
Current perspectives on these issues in PCS are outlined, how they are
understood in ERS, and what approaches would be beneficial to adapt and
integrate into PCS. Each section concludes with a reflection on what ques-
tions may be relevant for developing a body of research at this intersection
between these two fields. The book concludes with a discussion of PCS
and long-term thinking in the context of threats to existence.
This book adds new ways of thinking to discussions about the future.
When considering the long-term future, the question needs to be asked,
“how do we still relate to each other in the here and now?” I often imag-
ine that last being at the edge of the last black hole as the final star goes
dark and wonder what their reflections would be. I position this book
between the present moment and the long-term future in what Elise
Boulding, one of the early founders of PCS, called the “long-present,”
which invokes the idea of any of us living mid-history, at the intersection
of the lives preceding us, and those that will precede from us. In this book,
I build an epistemological bridge between how to think about threats to
4 N. B. TAYLOR
References
Eliot, T. S. 1925. Eliot’s Poems: 1909–1925. London: Faber & Faber.
Frost, Robert. 1920. “A Group of Poems by Robert Frost.” Harper’s
Magazine, December.
CHAPTER 2
Foundations
1
Max Born, Percy Bridgman, Leopold Infeld, Frédéric Joliot-Curie, Hermann Muller,
Linus Pauling, Cecil Powell, Joseph Rotblat, and Hideki Yukawa.
8 N. B. TAYLOR
posed by nuclear energy in its application to warfare. They are also the
keepers of the Doomsday Clock, an artistic metaphor for the dangers and
urgency posed by manmade threats to humanity.
Since its creation, the Pugwash movement has become a series of inter-
national conferences and workshops. In these spaces, scientists come
together to discuss questions of global security, armed conflict, nuclear
weapons, and other weapons of mass destruction and the responsibility of
those working in the sciences with regard to working for war or peace.
Some of the most noteworthy accomplishments of this movement were
the nuclear test ban in 1963, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in
1968, the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty of 1972, and the ban on chemical
and nuclear weapons in 1972 (Kraft et al. 2018). In 1995 the Pugwash
movement was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize to commemorate these
accomplishments (Nobel Prize Outreach 2022).
From these initial foundations, the field of Conflict Resolution began in
earnest at the height of the Cold War between 1950 and 1960. People
came together from different disciplines concerned about escalating geo-
political tensions, the nuclear arms race, and the specter that war between
superpowers could threaten human survival. These pioneers recognized a
common vision in developing rigorous and scientifically grounded
approaches to studying conflict. Early systems theories by Ludwig von
Bertalanffy, Anatol Rapoport, Ralph Gerard, Kenneth Boulding, and Elise
Boulding brought cross-disciplinary perspectives and methods to the field
of Peace Studies as it developed in the USA. The multidimensional
approaches developed from their early work were built on a radically dif-
ferent starting point than previous ways of understanding conflict. Their
approach was based on the observation that the vast majority of all social
conflict occurs nonviolently and that the minority of human activity is
related to war. From this perspective, researching peace requires an under-
standing built from peace rather than conflict, war, or violence
(Dietrich 2012).
In the 1980s, the Harvard Negotiation Project popularized, particu-
larly through Fisher and Ury’s Getting to Yes (1981), many of the princi-
ples of negotiation and mediation, such as separating people from problems
and distinguishing between interests and positions. These approaches
shaped interventions in the struggle to end Apartheid in South Africa,
developing problem-solving workshops to support peace processes in the
Middle East and taking community-oriented approaches to resolving con-
flict in Northern Ireland. Additionally, many development and
2 FOUNDATIONS 9
conditions that need to be present for there to be peace are at the heart of
the field.
Some generally agreed-upon characteristics can describe the field: PCS
has roots in a postmodern field of study fueled by disillusionment with the
grand explanatory narrative. The field tends to cast a critical eye on how
peace and conflict issues are understood. PCS is transdisciplinary, drawing
from and transcending the disciplinary boundaries of many fields (Political
Science, International Relations, Philosophy, Sociology, Anthropology,
Psychology, Religious Studies, peace movements, our collective history of
conflicts, and experiences of peace). It is also multilevel in that while
International Relations had an explicit focus on elite-level actors, govern-
ments, and militaries and sought to find strategies to prevent war at the
nation-state level, PCS took an expanded view on who can work to pre-
vent violence and build peace. PCS is multicultural. While a clear influence
of particular cultures and places shaped its origins as a field, as it has grown
and developed, increasing attention has been placed on bringing experi-
ences from different cultures, religions, ethnicities, sexes, genders, and
sexual orientations into its theory and methodology. The field is analytical,
seeking to utilize various methods and frames to understand the nature
and dynamics of peace, conflict, and violence. PCS is also a normative
discipline. Similar to medicine, few doctors would think of themselves as
neutral. They are on the side of the patient seeking a particular outcome.
PCS maintains a clear bias toward reducing violence and increasing peace.
Finally, PCS emphasizes the linkage between theory and practice. Effective
peace work and research depend on each other for their validity. The effi-
cacy of peace work is important because the subjects of research are the
lives of people.
On the 18th of July, 1866, the island was attacked and taken by
the fleet under Admiral Persano. But their success was short-lived,
for the Austrians came down the next day, and inflicted the terrible
defeat which, for the time, completely disorganized the Italian navy.
This fleet was composed of eleven armored vessels (including
large and small, and the ram L’Affondatore), two frigates, one
corvette and three gun-boats, each mounting two guns, five
despatch vessels, and a few smaller craft, hardly fit to enter into
action.
Among the Italian vessels was the large ironclad frigate Ré d’Italia,
built during our civil war, for the Italian Government, by Webb, of
New York. This fleet was commanded by Admiral Persano, and was
in three divisions. The first, under the direct orders of Persano
himself, consisted of eight armored vessels, and some other lighter
steamers; the second division, under Vice-Admiral Albini, consisted
of six screw frigates, unarmored; the third division, under Rear-
Admiral Vacca, consisted of three ironclad vessels.
The Austrian fleet, which came down to seek the Italians, and to
offer battle, as soon as the news of the capture of Lissa was
received, consisted of twenty-two vessels. Seven of them were
armored; one was a screw ship-of-the-line, called the Kaiser, of 90
guns; four screw frigates; four gun-boats; one corvette; and a few
small craft.
In spite of the fact that the Austrian fleet would, undoubtedly, come
to dispute their conquest, the Italians seem to have been taken
rather by surprise, especially as Admiral Tegethoff approached
rapidly, and engaged very promptly. The engagement, being under
steam, commenced as soon as the guns of the opposing fleets
would bear, and was, at first, carried on with great resolution on both
sides. Very soon after the fight commenced the Ré d’Italia, one of
the best ships of the Italian fleet, was rammed by two Austrian ships,
also armored, and received fatal injuries, from which she soon sank,
carrying down many of her crew.
She had been the flag-ship; but just before she went into action
Admiral Persano had quitted her, and gone on board the iron-clad
ram, the Affondatore, without notifying the commanding officers of
the change, either by signal, or otherwise. The action was then really
fought, on the part of the Italians, without a Commander; for they
received no signals from the ship from which they had a right to look
for them; and, as the Ré d’Italia was soon sunk, many thought that
Admiral Persano had perished in her.
The Italian fleet was thus without united action; and their
manœuvres were undecided and weak; while the Austrian fleet
concentrated all its efforts under the strong impulse of a skillful and
very zealous Commander, whose only thought seemed to be to win
or perish. In spite of this the Italian ships were most bravely fought,
and the victory was not either an easy or bloodless one.
Many have thought that, had there been a capable Commander,
and unity of action, they would have probably gained the battle.
The Italian iron-clad Ré di Portogallo, a sister ship of the Ré
d’Italia, especially distinguished herself by the audacity of her
movements and the ability with which she was handled. She sank
two Austrian vessels; having a long engagement with the Kaiser,
sinking this huge ship by a broadside poured into her, at a distance
of only a few yards. The Kaiser is said to have carried down with her
twelve hundred men; several hundred of whom were Tyrolese sharp-
shooters.
At half-past four in the afternoon the battle ceased; having lasted
for six hours.
The Italians retired to Ancona, a safe and strongly fortified harbor
on their coast, nearly opposite to Lissa. The Austrian fleet had
received such damage and loss that they not only were unable to
pursue the Italians, but were soon obliged to desert the waters of
Lissa, and return to their naval port, Pola.
Although this was not a victory for the Austrians, in the sense of
large captures, they were most distinctly the victors, in that the
Italians deserted the field. That has always been the test of victory,
both by land and by sea. Before the end of the battle the Italians lost
a second iron-clad, the Palestro, which blew up, and all on board
were lost. On the 6th of August, following, the Affondatore, which
had been anchored outside of Ancona, on the lookout for the
Austrian fleet, was swamped by the heavy sea caused by a sudden
storm. She endeavored to take refuge inside the mole, but too late.
All her crew were saved. The whole affair was a dreadful blow to the
Italian navy, and to their cause; and was equally instrumental in
advancing the morale and reputation of the Austrian navy.
A good deal of light may be thrown upon this event by a slight
account of the officer responsible for it
Admiral Count Charles Persano was born at Vercelli, in 1806. He
entered the Sardinian navy, and rose rapidly to high rank; serving
under Admiral Bruat, at the bombardment of Odessa, during the
Crimean war; and, for the remainder of that struggle, having charge
of the transportation and provisionment of the Sardinian troops which
joined the Allies; a most responsible post.
In the year 1859, as a Rear-Admiral, he had command of the
Adriatic squadron of observation, and of the blockade of Venice. The
next year he commanded the fleet at Naples, when Garibaldi seized
and turned over to him the Neapolitan fleet. Here he acted with great
judgment, and to the satisfaction of all, in distributing the Neapolitan
officers among the vessels of the national fleet, and in composing
difficulties and overcoming obstacles incident to so sudden and great
a change in government. The reputation of no one stood higher than
that of Persano, for tact, ability, and firmness of purpose.
Austrian Man of War, Ferdinand Max, Ramming the Italian Ironclad, Re
D’Italia, at the Battle of Lissa.