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Thread by @TrueCrypto28 on WYCKOFF CLIFF NOTES
Thread by @TrueCrypto28 on WYCKOFF CLIFF NOTES
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@TrueCrypto28
Dec 30, 2022 • 36 tweets • 5 min read Read on Twitter
WYCKOFF CLIFF NOTES (Technical Analysis detective work. Learn to study the footprints)
As an example, when the market is in the distribution phase. A ceiling has formed and large traders are offloading
stock/coin they previously purchased.
This attracts last-minute greedy buyers and informed traders looking to sell.
Determine your trading approach in advance. It's hard to have both buy and sell positions at once, so try long-term
trading first until you find consistent success.
To have long term success in trading, you must understand the factors that drive market behavior and emotions.
When price is trending, we expect the pushing side to have greater strength. Think of it as a battle between buyers
& sellers, & analyze the strength of both sides
For the trend to continue, each impulse must surpass the last. If it can't, it could be a sign the trend is ending.
A breakout of a trend line by itself is not a conclusive sign of anything, as it may be a true or false break.
What is significant is how the line is broken, the conditions under which it happens, and the behavior that precedes
it.
These occur when the price goes beyond the upper end of a bull channel
Fast acceleration can lead to a point where price is vulnerable to long covering & experienced buyers pulling out,
indicating a weakening uptrend.
The Wyckoff method can help you identify key events and phases during range development.
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Twitter!define a range, and as long as price stays within it, there's little major movement. Tweet Share
But breaks at the ends can offer great trading opportunities.
The Wyckoff method has proven effective for over 100 years of trading various financial instruments.
It analyzes price & volume action to understand how supply and demand drive price changes.
While not overly complicated, it must be studied in great depth in order to apply it
Price can form various structures based on market conditions, so we need an approach that accommodates price
movement while still being objective.
C) testing,
But beware of the common mistake that prices rise just because there are more buyers than sellers.
Don't confuse supply and demand with placing limit orders in the BID and ASK columns.
To push the price higher, buyers must aggressively purchase all available sell orders & keep buying to force the
price up & find new sellers.
The absence of one of the two forces can facilitate price displacement.
When the bid is withdrawn, this lack of interest will be represented by a smaller number of contracts in the ASK
column, which will allow the price to move more easily upwards.
During lateral price periods, the market is creating a cause for future trend movement away from resistance.
The longer the market stays in a range, building momentum, the farther the subsequent trend will likely travel.
Big traders use these climax candles to accumulate or distribute all the stock they need without developing a more
extensive campaign and starting from there, the expected movement.
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The market moves based on the law of cause & effect, using lateral phases to create subsequent movements.
Wyckoff traders know that trends start during lateral phases, they look for new structures to analyze price &
volume action & position themselves before a new trend begins
The effort of a trade should be in harmony with the result, indicating strength of the movement.
If the effort is in divergence with the result, it is a sign of weakness of the movement and suggests a reversal.
We would obtain a harmony in effort & result if both the candle & volume have continuation
In the development of the movements, we increase the portion of our analysis & examine the PA & volume in terms
of complete movements
The law of effort and result can also be applied to waves, helping us evaluate market conditions and compare
upward and downward pressure between moves.
Effort vs Result analysis can be applied to broader market contexts like trends.
Turns don't always happen with large volume and small price movement. Lack of interest can also cause a price
twist, seen in small volumes on market floors or after a bearish reversal
In the accumulation range, buying stock will cause a subsequent upward trend movement.
Bad news may mislead others to enter the wrong side of the market.
When professional buyers want to test the path of least resistance, they'll start downward movements to see how it
follows. Lack of volume at this point suggests lack of interest in going lower.
The accumulation range is marked by a decrease in volume and volatility as the range develops. Tests to the high
zone of the range without volume, suggesting an absence of selling interest. Springs to previous lows.
The duration of this structure is influenced by the percentage of strong vs. weak hands controlling the value. If
value is mainly in strong hands at the start of reaccumulation, the structure will be shorter.
The law of cause and effect states for an effect to occur, there must be a cause that produces it. The effect will be
directly proportional to the cause. In the distribution range, selling stock will cause a subsequent downward trend
movement.
An Upthrust (a sudden upward movement into the ranges resistance level), is used to carry out a 3 functions:
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1. Reach well-positioned short sellers stop loss Tweet Share
2. Induce buy orders in ill-informed traders who believe in bullish continuation
The only way for professional traders to trade in the markets is to use liquidity to match their orders. When the
bearish reversal occurs after the shake, the stops of those who bought will be executed, adding strength to the
bearish movement.
After the development of the range is complete, professionals will not initiate the downward trend movement until
they can verify that the path of least resistance is down. This is done through tests with which they evaluate the
buyer's interest.
Wide price fluctuations, tests to the lower zone of the range w/o volume(an absence of buyer interest), upward
shakeouts to previous highs, & wider & more fluid bear movements
During the periods of redistribution, the professionals who are already short return to sell around the top of the
range & potentially cover some of his positions near the base of the range. They are increasing their short position
during range development.
The percentage of strong & weak hands that control the value will influence the duration of the structure. If the
value is still mainly in strong hands at the beginning of the redistribution, the duration of the structure will be
shorter.
To be continued...
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