TABLE OF CONTENTS

Title Page

Declaration

Certification

Dedication

Acknowledgements

Table of Contents

Abstract

Chapter One: Introduction.

1.1 Background to the Study

1.2 Research Problem

1.3 Research Questions

1.4 Research Objectives

1.5 Research Hypothesis

1.6 Research Significance

1.7 Research Methodology

1.8 Research Design

1.9 Method of Data Collection

1.9.1 Sampling Technique

1.9.2 Population and Sample Size

1.9.3 Method of Data Presentation and Analysis

1.10 Scope and Limitations

Chapter Two: Literature Review and Theoretical Framework.

2.1 Electoral Process in Nigeria

2.2 Nature of Voting Behavior

2.2.1 Neo Classical Public Choice Approach

2.2.2 Rational Choice Structuralist Approach

2.3 Voting behavior of Nigerian Electorate

2.3.1 Economic Factors

2.3.2 Political Factors

2.3.3 Social Factors

2.4 Voting Behaviour and the Outcome of Kogi state 2023 Gubernatorial Election

2.5 Theoretical Framework

Chapter Three: Background to the Study

3.1 Brief History of Kogi State

3.2 Geography

3.3 Economy and Trade of the People

3.4 Administrative Structure in Kogi State

3.5. Brief History of Election and Voting in Kogi State

Chapter Four: Data Presentation, Analysis and Discussion of Findings

4.1. Data Presentation and Analyses

4.2 Respondents‟ Bio Data

4.3 Analysis of Voting Behaviour in the 2023 Gubernatorial Election results in Idah, Kabba,
and Okene LGAs of Kogi state

4.4 Discussion of Findings

Chapter Five: Summary, Conclusion and Recommendations.

5.1 Summary

5.2 Conclusion

5.3 Recommendations

Reference
 CHAPTER ONE

GENERAL INTRODUCTION

1.1: Background to the Study

The growth of academic interest in voting behaviour coincided with the rise of behavioural

political science. As the most widespread and quantifiable form of political behaviour, voting

quickly became the focus for new techniques of sample surveying and statistical analysis

(Heywood, 2004). The “American Voter” (Campbell et al, 1960) cited in Heywood (2004), the

product of painstaking research by the University of Michigan, became the leading work in the

field and stimulated a wealth of similar studies, such as Butler and Stokes’ “Political Change in

Britain” (1969) cited in Heywood (2004). At the high point of the behavioural revolution it was

thought that voting held the key to disclosing all the mysteries of the political system, perhaps

allowing for laws of mass political psychology to be developed. Even though these lofty hopes

have not been fulfilled, psephology (the scientific study of voting behaviour) still commands a

central position in a political analysis. This is because voting provides one of the richest sources

of information about the interaction between individuals, society and politics. By investigating

the mysteries of voting behaviour, we are thus able to learn important lessons about the nature of

the political system, and gain insight into the process of social and political change (Heywood,

2004).

Voting is one of the cardinal principles of the democratic system of government and the

importance of political and election participations in democratic societies have increased

dramatically. This brings us to a sharper definition of voting; therefore, voting in this capacity

refers to aggregating individual preferences into a collective decision in an election, the action of

formally indicating one’s choice of candidate or political party at an election (Gerber, Green and

Shachar, 2013). Voting denotes the means whereby a number of persons are enabled to indicate

their agreement or disagreement with some prepositions or their preferences as between two or

more proposals or between two or more candidates for some offices. It is therefore a means of

aggregating individual preference into a collective decision. The term generally refers to the

process by which citizens choose candidates for public office or decide political questions

submitted to them.

According to Bromhead (2006) as cited in Okolie (2014), voting denotes the means whereby

number of persons are enabled to indicate their agreement or disagreement with some

prepositions, or their preferences as between two or more proposals or between two or more

candidates for some office. It is therefore a means of aggregating individual preference into

collective decisions. As noted by Stokes (2003) cited in Okolie (2014), voting is not the sole

means of aggregating individual preferences; other means include market mechanisms and

processes of informal interaction in many social and political groups. Usually when a vote is

taken the decision of the majority prevails; for some types of decisions, it may be provided that

there must be an absolute majority of those qualified to vote, or some majority greater than half,

either of all those qualified to vote or of all these actually voting, for a particular decision to be

valid. A voice vote, in which the voters shout “yes or no”, is simple and quick, but acceptable as

a final decision only if those declared to be in minority are satisfied that they really are in a

minority (Okolie, 2014).

Voting in elections into public offices is usually conducted using ballot boxes. Voting therefore

takes the form of thumb printing in the ballot paper provided. Voting processes have undergone
transformations over the year in Nigeria, from secret ballot system; the electoral commission

experimented with open-ballot system, and modified open-secret ballot system (Okolie, 2004).

The voting system varies from country to country but one basic point that underlie all voting in a

given socio-formation is decision making. To vote is to make a decision about a particular issues

or issues at stake. However, the direction of the decision is determined by certain factors which

Shape voting behaviour. Voting Behaviour connotes a collection of attitudes, values and beliefs

in which Individuals of a given society have towards elections both at the local, national and

international Level. Harrop and Miller using a constructivist paradigm, explained voting

behaviour as a pattern of political participation mostly taking place in democratic societies where

people react to certain laid down values, principles and beliefs how they choose their leaders.

These set of beliefs could be based on age, sex, ethnicity, religion and education. Voting

behaviour is clearly shaped by short-term and long-term influences. Short-term Influences are

specifics to a particular election and do not allow conclusion to be drawn about voting patterns in

general. The chief short-term influence is the state of the economy, which reflects the fact that

there is usually a link between government’s popularity and economic variables such as

unemployment, inflation and disposable income. Another short-term influence on voting is the

personality and public standing of party leaders. This is particularly important, because media

exposure portrays leaders as the brand image of their party (Heywood, 2014)

1.2: Research Problem

This study examines voting behaviour and the Outcome of Kogi state 2023 gubernatorial election

in order to determine the voting pattern of the people during elections. The voting pattern of

people in elections is a very important aspect of their political culture or behavioural pattern

towards politics. Every political environment, including that of Kogi state, provides within its

context one or more peculiar factors that underscore the behaviour of people in elections, and
understanding these factors will give us better understanding of the nature of elections and

politics in that political environment. One of such is ethnicity, which refers to “a social

phenomenon associated with the identity of members of the largest possible competing

communal groups (ethnic groups) seeking to protect and advance their interest in the political

system” (Nnoli, 2018).

Kogi state is a heterogeneous state made up of over ten ethnic groups; among which the three

major ethnic groups are the Igalas, Ebiras and the Okuns, however, other ethnic groups include;

Nupe,Ogori, Bassa, Oworo, Kakanda, Gwari, Eggan amongst others. The three major ethnic

groups constitute over 70% of the state population, while the other minority ethnic groups

constitute less than 30% of the state population. The most dominant ethnic group in the state; the

Igalas have about 45% of the state population located in the eastern part of the state with their

presence in nine local governments, while the Ebiras constitute about 25% of the state

population, located in the central part of the state, with their presence in four local government

areas. The Okuns constitute about 20% of the state population, located in the western part of the

state, with their presence in four local governments(NPC, 2016). The significance of these is to

enable the researcher distribute the research questionnaires accordingly so as to get accurate

responses, i.e the larger the populace the higher the number of questionnaires to be distributed

within that region.

1.3: Research Questions

The research questions of this study are:

i. What factor (s) determine voting behavior in the 2023 gubernatorial elections in Kogi

State?

ii. How does the voting behavior influence the outcome of the elections?
1.4: Research Objectives

The objectives of this research are:

i. To identify the factor(s) that determines voting behaviour in the 2023 gubernatorial

elections of Kogi State.

ii. To establish the relationship between voting behaviour and outcome of the 2023

governorship elections in Kogi State.

1.5. Research Hypothesis

This study is anchored on the following hypothesis

i. H0: There are no factors that determines voting behaviour in the 2023 gubernatorial

elections of Kogi State

Hi: There are factors that determines voting behaviour in the 2023 gubernatorial elections

of Kogi State

ii. H0: There are no relationships between voting behaviour and election outcomes

Hi: There are relationships between voting behaviour and election outcomes

1.6: Research Significance

Many researches have been conducted on the topic, however there still exist some gap in

knowledge with regard voting behaviour and the role it played in the Kogi state 2023

gubernatorial elections. This work serves as a reference material for researchers in understanding

the nature of voting behaviour in a multiethnic state so as to be able to advance their study
beyond the scope of this work. It also helps to educate both political scholars and other

knowledge seekers of the public on the relationship between voting behaviour and electoral

outcome.

1.7: Research Methodology

This section gives the methodology adopted for the study which comprises of the systematic way

in which data was collected, analysed and interpreted.

1.8: Research Design

The research design or strategy for conducting this study is based on survey research, using the

exploratory method. This method the researcher believes reveals useful information within a

short period of time. The purpose of this method is to discover meaning in the data collected so

that facts and events could be better understood, interpreted and explained.

1.9: Method of Data Collection

Relevant data for the study were gathered through two main sources; the primary and the

secondary. The primary data have been collected through the administration of questionnaire. In

order to arrive at a proportionate sample size in the administration of copies of the questionnaire,

this work will adopt the Yamane‟s simplified formula which will help to arrive at a

proportionate sample size

1.9.1 Sampling Technique

Kogi State is multiethnic in nature and also divided into three senatorial areas each representing

one among the three major ethnic groups of the state. As such, one Local Government Area

(LGA) was picked at random using the ballot sampling from each senatorial district to represent
the area. That is, Okene to represent Kogi Central, Idah representing Kogi East and Kabba

representing Kogi West. These Local Governments will have the 2023 gubernatorial election

results analysed. In order to arrive at a proportionate sample size in the administration of copies

of the questionnaire, this work adopted the Yamane‟s simplified formula which was used to

arrive at a proportionate sample size which reflected the true nature of the entire population size

with minimal error (Creative Research System, 2016). This research considered a 92%

confidence level, and an 8 percent error level, ie; P=±8 in the calculation of its sample size.

Where: n= Sample Size N= Population Size e= level of precision i.e ±8(0.08)

𝑛 = 302924
______________
1 + 302924(0.08)

𝑛= 302924
____________
1939.7

𝑛 = 156.170 ; 𝑛 = 156

Applying the above formula a sample size of 156 electorate of ages 18 and above was arrived at.

Therefore, 52 questionnaires will be administered to each of the 3 Local Government Areas

Secondary Data

INEC Electoral results, NPC census results; this was used to compliment the primary sources in

order to facilitate quantitative, qualitative and descriptive analysis of the subject matter.

1.9.2: Population and Sample Size

Kogi State has a total population of 4,446,800 in the 2006-2022 National Census from the 21

LGAs with a total number of 1,932,654 registered voters. Therefore, to get a proportionate

sample size, one LGA was selected at random from each of the three Senatorial districts of the

state, which also represent the three major ethnic groups in the State, which are; the Igala, Okun

and Ebira representing Kogi East, Kogi West and Kogi Central respectively. Okene LGA from

the central part of the state representing the Ebira ethnic group has a population of 438,900 with

151,243 registered voters, while Kabba/Banu LGA has a population of 194,900 with 87,162

registered voters, and finally, Idah LGA has a population of 107,500 with a total of 64,519

registered voters. Therefore we considered a total of 302,924 registered voters from the three

selected LGAs as our population size (INEC & NPC 2024).

1.9.3: Method of Data Presentation and Analysis

For the purpose of proper analysis, descriptive statistic was employed in presenting and

analyzing the data collected. This involves the use of tables, charts, frequency distribution and

percentages and chi-square test using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS)

1.10: Scope and Limitations of the study

This study covers three (3) out of the 21 LGAs of Kogi State. These three (3) LGAs were chosen

using a simple ballot technique from the three senatorial areas of the State, namely Okene (Kogi

Central), Idah (Kogi East) and Kabba (Kogi West) so as to get diverse views of electorate in the
state, particularly the views of the three major ethnic groups in Kogi State. Also, this study

covers the voting behaviour of electorates in the 2023 gubernatorial elections in the state. The

selected LGAs above are also used for this analysis.

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

2.1: Electoral Process in Nigeria

Stable electoral process is the most desirable democratic experience Nigerians have looked out

for in the over twenty years of our uninterrupted democratic atmosphere. This atmosphere had

been heated up at various moments leading to abuse of power, fraudulent elections, oppression of

political opponents and intimidation of journalists and corruption of the electoral process. Joseph

in Agi, (2012) viewed these anti-democratic tendencies as some of the dilemmas of the Nigerian
democracy. Nevertheless, most nations in the world with stable electoral process have often

prided themselves with waves of positive or negative transition which gave credence to the said

electoral process at times as “free and fair”. Agi (2012) noted that, the prevailing political

experience of various nations directly informs the political institutions, structures and activities,

inclinations, loyalties and associations which are identifiable. Sequel to the above, there is no

meaningful electoral process without the citizens and education. To this, Ojie (2006) states that

in a democracy, those whose responsibility is to exercise political authorities in a society perform

it with the explicit consent and genuine mandate expressed at periodic intervals by the electorate

through an open, free and fair electoral process. This implies that, the pivot of any electoral

process is the citizen 18 years and above (adult). Also, these citizens (adults) are compulsorily

given voter education, to enable them have high quality information to enhance effective

electoral process. In the absence of this, imposition of different sorts will be experienced in the

execution of the electoral process which is part and parcel of the community development

programmes as expressed by Amirize in Kobani and Alozie (2016).

Nigerians elect at the federal level the Head of State (the President of Nigeria) and the legislature

(the National Assembly). The President is elected by the people. The National assembly has two

chambers. The House of Representatives has 360 members, elected for a four-year term; each of

the 36 states is divided into 3 senatorial districts, which is represented by one senator, the federal

capital territory is represented by only one senator. Nigeria has a multi-party system, with two

leading political parties namely: All Progressive Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party

(PDP). However, members of the Peoples Democratic Party founded in 1998, 21 years ago,

controlled the presidency until 2023 when Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC won the

presidential election. The genesis of the electoral process began with the establishment of the

electoral umpire through the Nigerian Constitution in 1998 by the then Military administration of
General Abdulsalam Abubakar after dissolving the National Electoral Commission of Nigeria

(NECON) which was established in December 1995 by the then General Sani Abacha’s

government (INEC, 2010). This body is a juridical person that may sue and be sued in its own

name (Federal Republic of Nigeria (FRN), 1999).

National Assembly, Presidential and Gubernatorial election are disinterred by a milt-tiered

Federal Administrative structure organized under the authority of the independent National

Election Commission (INEC). INEC is a constitutionally mandated body. The President of the

Republic appoints the Chief Electoral Commissioner and 12 national Electoral Commissioners

with advice from the council of State. They cannot be members of any political party, nor can

they vote. All Nigerian citizens 18 years of age and above are eligible to register to vote in

elections. INEC is responsible for organizing and implementing the registration process

compiling and distributing the registration lists to states and localities, providing citizens with

voter registration cards, and regularly updating the registration lists. INEC was charged with the

task of creating a new computer registry of Nigerian’s estimated 84.27 million eligible voters

nationwide. INEC’s voter registry serves as the basis for national / gubernatorial and local

elections in Nigeria. The latter is under the administrative control of the State Independent

Election Commissions (SIECs) and not INEC. Note the creation of the registry as identified as a

critically important step forward in the development of the Nigeria’s electoral system.

2.2: Nature of Voting Behaviour

The growth of academic interest in voting behaviour coincided with the rise of behavioural

political science. As the most widespread and quantifiable form of political behaviour, voting

quickly became the focus for new techniques of sample surveying and statistical analysis. The

American Voter (Campbell et al, 1960) cited in Heywood (2014), the product of painstaking
research by the University of Michigan, became the leading work in the field and stimulated a

wealth of similar studies, such as Butler and Stokes’ Political Change in Britain (1969) cited in

Heywood (2014). At the high point of the behavioural revolution it was thought that voting held

the key to disclosing all the mysteries of the political system, perhaps allowing for laws of mass

political psychology to be developed. Even though these lofty hopes have not been fulfilled,

psephology (the scientific study of voting behaviour) still commands a central position in

political analysis. This is because voting provides one of the richest sources of information about

the interaction between individuals, society and politics. By investigating the mysteries of voting

behaviour, we are thus able to learn important lessons about the nature of the political system,

and gain insight into the process of social and political change (Heywood, 2014).

Voting is one of the cardinal principles of the democratic system of government and the

importance of political and election participations in democratic societies have increased

dramatically. This brings us to a sharper definition of voting; therefore, voting in this capacity

refers to aggregating individual preferences into a collective decision in an election, the action of

formally indicating one’s choice of candidate or political party at an election (Gerber, Green and

Shachar, 2013). Voting denotes the means whereby a number of persons are enabled to indicate

their agreement or disagreement with some prepositions or their preferences as between two or

more proposals or between two or more candidates for some offices. It is therefore a means of

aggregating individual preference into a collective decision. The term generally refers to the

process by which citizens choose candidates for public office or decide political questions

submitted to them.

According to Bromhead (1960) as cited in Okolie (2004), voting denotes the means whereby a

number of persons are enabled to indicate their agreement or disagreement with some

prepositions, or their preferences as between two or more proposals or between two or more
candidates for some office. It is therefore a means of aggregating individual preference into

collective decisions. As noted by Stokes (1963) cited in Okolie (2004), voting is not the sole

means of aggregating individual preferences; other means include market mechanisms and

processes of informal interaction in many social and political groups. Usually when a vote is

taken the decision of the majority prevails; for some types of decisions, it may be provided that

there must be an absolute majority of those qualified to vote, or some majority greater than half,

either of all those qualified to vote or of all these actually voting, for a particular decision to be

valid. A voice vote, in which the voters shout “yes or no”, is simple and quick, but acceptable as

a final decision only if those declared to be in minority are satisfied that they really are in a

minority (Okolie, 2004). Voting in elections into public offices is usually conducted using ballot

boxes. Voting therefore takes the form of thumb printing in the ballot paper provided. Voting

processes have undergone transformations over the year in Nigeria, from secret ballot system;

the electoral commission experimented with open-ballot system, and modified open-secret ballot

system (Okolie, 2004). The voting system varies from country to country but one basic point that

underlie all voting in a given socio-formation is decision making. To vote is to make a decision

about a particular issues or issues at stake. However, the direction of the decision is determined

by certain factors which shape voting behaviour.

Voting Behaviour according to Connotes (2020) is a collection of attitudes, values and beliefs in

which individuals of a given society have towards elections both at the local, national and

international level, while Harrop and Miller using a constructivist paradigm, explained voting

behaviour as a pattern of political participation mostly taking place in democratic societies where

people react to certain laid down values, principles and beliefs how they choose their leaders.

These set of beliefs could be based on age, sex, ethnicity, religion and education. Voting

behaviour is clearly shaped by short-term and long-term influences. Short-term influences are
specifics to a particular election and do not allow conclusion to be drawn about voting patterns in

general. The chief short-term influence is the state of the economy, which reflects the fact that

there is usually a link between government’s popularity and economic variables such as

unemployment, inflation and disposable income. Another short-term influence on voting is the

personality and public standing of party leaders. This is particularly important, because media

exposure portrays leaders as the brand image of their party (Heywood, 2014).

Furthermore, there are various theories in explaining voting behaviour in human society namely

the sociological, rational choice, party identification and clientelistic models (see, for example,

Chandler, 1988; Catt, 1996; Sanders, 2003; Van de Walle, 2003; Brooks, Nieuwbeerta and

Manza, 2006; Szwarcberg, 2013). Party Identification theory is based on the sense of

psychological attachment that people have to parties (Heywood, 2014). Electors are seen as

people who identify with a party, in the sense of being long-term supporters who regard the party

as ‘their party’. Voting is therefore a manifestation of partisanship, not a product of calculation

influenced by factors such as policies, personalities, campaigning and media coverage

(Heywood, 2014). Sociological model links voting behaviour to group membership, suggesting

that electors tend to adopt a voting pattern that reflects the economic and social position of the

group to which they belong. Rather than developing a psychological attachment to a party on the

basis of family influence, this model highlights the importance of a social alignment, reflecting

the various divisions and tensions within society. Also, the rational-choice model shift attention

onto the individual and away from socialization and the behaviour of social groups. In this view,

voting is seen as a rational act, in the sense that individual electors are believed to decide their

party preference on the basis of personal self-interest (Heywood, 2004). Voting to this model is

seen as essentially instrumental: that is, as a means to an end. Finally, patronage, or clientelism

model, can also be an important determinant of voting behaviour (Bratton and Van de Walle,
1997; Van de Walle, 2003). In a clientelistic relationship politicians tend to use their power to

provide economic privileges or other material favours to voters in return for their political

support at the polls (Szwarcberg, 2013)

Voting behaviour is basically perceived as the way and manner in which electorate vote during

elections of any sort – whether plebiscite, referendum or ballot elections. This act of voting is

however influenced by numerous factors. In an attempt to understand voting behaviour as a

political phenomenon, logical approaches will be adopted to analyze the concepts. Andrain et al.

(2015) adopted two competing approaches contending for relevance as the most efficient

framework for explaining why electorate vote for certain candidates and political parties over

alternatives. The two approaches are the Neo Classical Public Choice Approach and the Rational

Choice Structuralist Approach.

2.2.1: Neo Classical Public Choice Approach

This approach, otherwise known as the rational choice theory, is the economic model of voting

and school of Rochester. Major works supporting this theory are in An Economic Theory of

Democracy by Anthony Downs (1957), To Vote or Not to Vote by Blais A. (2000) and

Pathologies of Rationale Choice Theory by Green, D.P. and Shapiro I. (1994). Other proponents

are James Buchanan (2001), Gordon Tullock (2001), William Riker (1982), Peter Ordeshook

(1986), and Dennis Mueller (1996). They believe that individuals are motivated to vote mainly

by their economic self interest. They further seek personal advantages from government policies

and choose those candidates/political parties that will supply desired concrete benefits (Andrain,

2015).

The proponents of the theory make three closely related assumptions about electoral behaviour.

First, they centre their analysis on individuals not groups, institutions or society. The idea here is
that individuals retain extensive independence to make their choice, free of cultural and

structural constrain, and that society is an aggregate of interacting individuals, not a holistic

entity that shapes personal voting decisions (Andrain et al.,2015). Second, individuals act

rationally in political life. Their actions are prudential, calculating, utilitarian, and strategic. For

public choice theorists, rationality means an instrumental orientation. The individual has the

motivation and the cognitive capacity to seek efficient means to attain his needs. Rational

behaviour occurs when individuals can clearly rank their goals in order of priority, especially

concrete tangible benefits. For example, many rational voters expect government officials to

place highest priority on low taxes, regard increased expenditures for public education as less

important, and rank foreign aids to other countries at the bottom of policy priority. Rational

voters can also identify options to achieve their goals. They can accurately estimate the cost and

benefit of each option, evaluating each alternative for its feasibility and desirability. This

assumption implies that the voters have accurate, complete information about the policy

positions taken by preferred candidates.

Finally, they assume that voters maximize their utility, so that benefit exceeds cost. An

individual’s electoral decision stem from his value probability of realizing his preferences based

on candidates and/or political party policy stand congruent with his own position. This approach

is based on the cost benefit analysis. That is an electorate will only consider going through the

stress of voting only because he/she has something to gain from voting. For instance, considering

a hike in property tax by a government, property owners will go through the stress of voting so

as to change the government as against those who just rent these properties (Cord, 2010).

2.2.2: Rational Choice Structuralist Approach

This approach is also referred to as the sociological model of voting behaviour. Major works on

this theory are The People’s Choice by Lazarsfed, Berelson, and Gaudet (1944), Voting by

Berelson, Lazarsfed, and McPhee (1954), and Personal Influence by Katz and Lazarsfed (1955).

Most of these studies were carried out in the United States. The rationalist choice structuralist

(RCS) approach relies on sociological concepts such as values, norms and structures to explain

voting behaviour. Other proponents to this theory are George Homans (1950), Michael Hechter

(2009), Karl-Dieter Opp (2009), Aaron Wildavsky (1997), Dennis Chongi (1997) and Daniel

Little (1998). This perspective assumes that cultural beliefs (values, norms) and socio-political

structures influence voting intentions. This approach also acknowledges the fact that people do

not just vote because of their personal interest or benefits, rather they consider the interest of the

whole, that is, the community, religion, or cultural community the belong (Antunes, 2018).

This approach offers a more empirically valid analysis of electoral participation than the neo

classical economic perspective. This is because it takes into cognizance those sociological factors

of values like culture, religion, ethnicity etc. which affects human behaviour as against the

rational decisions of the neo classical economic perspective. Even if less parsimonious, the RCS

theories posit a more complex understanding of the interaction among goals, means, and

outcomes. Andrain et al. (1995) put it thus: “Rather than seeking their private interest,

individuals also have concern for the well being of other people. Even though individuals play an

active role processing political information and evaluating perceived alternatives, their decisions

are scarcely autonomous.”

From the above view we can see that the RCS theories are more flexible in accommodating the

complex nature of voting behaviour as a sole product which possibly could have lots of

influencing factors ranging from social, political and economic.

2.3: Voting Behaviour of Nigerian Electorates

Here we are going to see how and what gives shape to the voting behaviour of Nigerians. Those

factors that give shape to their voting behaviour are so enormous therefore, for the purpose of

convenience; we are going to classify them into Economic, Political and Social factors.

2.3.1: Economic Factors

It is pertinent to note that, the necessary political campaign strategies as well as logistics require

finances in most elections. The uses of finance to campaign in most developing democracies like

Nigeria is even more capital intensive because some electorates are usually given incentives to

persuade them to vote a political party or their flag bearer. Also most voters that display all sort

of violence, intimidation of co-electorate, dual or multiple voting either before, during or after

elections are usually being paid to indulge in these negative electoral vices. This argument can be

seen in the view of Ojo (2016): The history of Nigeria politics is replete with money-bag politics.

Although, there is hardly any country in the world where instances of bribery or political

corruption are not present in their national politics, since 1964/1965 western region elections to

the 2007 general elections there has hardly been any election conducted in Nigeria without

associated cases of corrupt practice such as vote buying, ballot snatching, election rigging,

election violence political and legislative lobbying etc. (Ojo, 2016).

It is on this note that economic incentives have been analyzed as Influencing the voting

behaviour of Nigerians. This politics of economic incentives is very pronounced in Nigeria

Electoral System as argued above due to corrupt practices by political office holders. That is why

some electorates have given up on the credibility of politicians; therefore, they only give

consideration to only those candidates who are willing to bargain for their votes.
2.3.2: Political Factors

The dynamic role played by political factors in influencing voting behaviour can be seen in two

perspectives, from the role of the government, civil society, political parties and as well the effect

of their activities on electorates. The government on its own makes electoral laws either through

its National Assembly as well as its electoral agencies – the Independent National Electoral

Commission (INEC) in the case of Nigeria. They make electoral laws which have direct impact

on the voting behaviour of Its citizens. For instance, the nature of electoral system: either Open

or Secret Ballot System will to a large extent impact on its citizens voting behaviour. While in a

Secret Ballot System, electorate will freely and conveniently cast their votes for the political

party or candidates of their choice without fear of offending opposition rivals. In an Open Ballot

System, only the brave voters are confident enough to cast their vote in the light of the public,

otherwise the weak and fearful ones might do otherwise voting for the party or candidate with

greater coercive ability or totally boycott the elections completely.

Furthermore, the security atmosphere on the Election Day is also very important. If security is

beefed along side with a Secret Ballot System, the electorate will be more confident in casting

their votes for their intended political parties or candidates in an election, but if otherwise they

will vote to please the crowd with the bulk of supporters. The above view is captured by Jose G.

Anon in his book John Stuart Mill’s Liberalism on Diversity and Cultural Conflicts (2004) as: …

the voters are under an absolute moral obligation to consider the interest of the public, not his

private advantage, and give his vote to the best of his judgment…this been admitted, it is at least

a prima facie consequence, that the duty of voting, like any other public duty, should be

performed under the eye and criticism of the public; everyone of whom has not only an interest
in its performance, but a good title to consider himself wronged if it is preformed otherwise than

honesty and carefully (Anon, 2004).

From the above, John Stuart Mill’s view voting should be done in an ideal situation subject to

mass criticism. On the basis of this view, the voting behaviour of the bulk of electorate will be

influenced by the general societal view about political parties or candidates thereby influencing

electorate voting behaviour to align with general societal view. However, this practice is not so

common in Nigeria, but in situations of plebiscite and referendum conducted on basic issues

which most times are usually open, then we see voters behaviοur mostly aligning to public view

and not theirs just to please the public.

Furthermore, the activities of political parties, their logos, mottos and affiliation play a great role

not leaving out their use of propaganda. Most political parties in Nigeria usually resort to the use

of propaganda to reduce the competence and credibility of their rival political parties as well as

its representatives. For instance, the last Peoples Democratic Party’s convention of 2022 which

led to the Atiku Abubakar/Ifeanyi Okowa presidential tickets was criticized by rival political

parties for its lack of transparency and merit, due to alleged rigging and general undemocratic

claims. This was done by the rival political parties to set some of the party’s loyalist into

dilemma and have a rethink to embrace the option of their political parties. They also present

juicy manifesto and party ideology which sometimes influence electorate who tend to believe in

their programs. All these activities by political parties usually to a large extent contribute in

giving shape to the electorate voting behaviour. In addition, Civil Societies, Non-Governmental

Organizations (NGOs) and political analyst in carrying out their activities do raise critical issues

of great importance. They either give credit or apportion blame to the activities of political
parties and their representatives in government. They analyze their role in policy making and

execution which had certain impact on the society. These activities are capable of encouraging

support in cases of merit and discourage support where blame is given thereby affecting the

voting behaviour of electorate in elections to come.

2.3.3: Social Factors

The roles social factors play in the determinant of voting behaviour have been described by some

political scientist as the most significant. This is because these factors generally influence mans‟

behaviour in their socialization process. Electorates do not grow in isolation; they are social

beings and grow in different types of societies which predominantly have cherished values in

certain areas which form their bias: these areas have to do with their faith (religion), their culture

and language (ethnicity) as well as their family values. Usually while they grow, they gradually

begin to align to either of the subgroups in the various areas, this does not happen naturally,

rather in process of socialization where the values of these groups are inculcated into the child

and haven grown up, the child would then have these values in him. These values then make an

electorate to be to some extent sentimental looking inwards within his group to vote for either a

political party or candidate not considering their credibility to deliver when given the mandate.

Also within this section, it is imperative to discuss the nature of interaction between the

electorate and the political parties or candidates, as well as the record of integrity of these

political parties as well as their candidates. Andrain et al. (2015) capture their view as:

Individuals evaluate parties according to cognitive criteria. What consequences (benefit vs cost)

will result from voting for a preferred party, rather than for Opposition parties? To what extent

will the party realize beneficial outcomes for the self particular social groups and the larger

community? These expected benefits include the enactment of specific policy measures, the

attainment of desirable policy outcomes and the manifestation of leadership qualities

(competence, integrity, character) in candidates running for office. Generally, the most informed

citizens base their electoral choice on the perceived congruence between their own policy

positions and the policy stands of the preferred party’s candidates (Andrain, 2015). Electorate

from the above we see are still left with some sense of rationality in their choice of candidates in

elections, that is why among electorate before or during elections in Nigeria, there are series of

analyses resulting to arguments among Nigeria’s electorate. This is usually in an attempt to

assess the level of competence of the various candidates presented by political parties for

elections. The electorate asses their past records, it is on this basis they decide the best among the

various political parties or candidates. These assessments of political parties or candidates by

Nigerian electorate go a long way in shaping their choice in elections.

2.4: Voting Behaviour and the Outcome of Kogi State Gubernatorial Election

Nigeria has fοr long been in constant search fοr effective electoral processes, as an integral part

of its transition to democracy. A long history of badly or pοοrly cοnducted elections has, until

recently, created profound skepticism amongst ordinary Nigerians abοut the utility of electoral

democracy. The relative success οf 2011, 2015, 2019 and especially 2023 general elections seem

tο have revived hope amοngst Nigerians that with determined effort, their votes could indeed

count. However, mοre efforts are required frοm all cοncerned tο ensure that this hope is kept

alive and that the renewed positive expectations and democratic aspiratiοn οf Nigerians are not

even again dashed. Election is a very precious activity in a democratic set up. It is an important

tenet οf democracy which allows the people tο have a government οf their own choice. Without

such a right, the people are bound tο be helpless and democracy losses all its meaning. However,

since the return οf democracy in 1999 the history οf election in Nigeria is marred by

irregularities which often lead tο violence. According tο Adejumοbi, (2010), “elections have

became an integral part οf representative democracy that by and large prevail across the world
order”. Election is a major institutional pillar οf liberal democracy. Tο this end the conduct οf

regular elections is considered the single most important indicator οf the presence or absence οf

the democratic context οf the rule-based free, fair and credible election. Violence has always

features prominently in all electoral processes in the pοst-cοlοnial Nigerian but it frequency and

magnitude οf occurrence in the country since the return οf the country tο democratic rule in 1999

is devastating and have assumed a catastrophic dimension, particularly, in 2011 and 2015 general

elections. Thus, threatening the democratization process in the country. “The electoral system οf

any given country plays a fundamental role in sustaining and molding the political behavior οf its

citizens” Οkοlο (2002:45). The way election is cοnducted in a country determines tο a great

extent the level οf political culture, political behaviοur and gοοd governance in the country.

In recent years voter participatory behaviοur has reached worrying levels worldwide, through the

various generations οf elections, declining voter participation, especially among the youth, has

steadily and increasingly become a major issue οf concern that has been equally affecting

emerging democracy and consolidated ones. Decreasing voter behaviοur trends are a cause οf

concern because voter turnout is one οf the main indicators tο measure the levels οf democratic

development and robustness οf a country. Low voter turnout can be related tο and originated by

many different factors closely related tο the democratic, economic and social development οf a

country. The lack οf genuine democracy in a country, people’s perceptions οf not being able tο

influence the political agenda and the lack οf interest in political life are all factors that can

influence the levels οf electoral participation considerably. Several factors that affect voter

electoral behaviοur have been highlighted in relevant literature. Some οf these include broad

psychological factors and collective memory οf historical and contemporary events. Others are

patterns οf trust, feelings οf efficacy, political engagement and disengagement at individual,

group and regional levels (Fawοle, 2005). In spite οf the empirical evidence that the global trend
has been toward a decline in voter turnout, there is lack οf grounded and sustained scholarly

attention tο voter apathy in the context οf voter turnout in Nigeria despite the challenges

plaguing the country’s electoral system. It is on this note that this study is poised at investigating

voting behaviοur and the Outcome in the 2023 Kogi Gubernatorial election. Other factors may

include; low confidence in the political candidates/parties due tο unfulfilled promises,

insufficient levels οf accountability οf elected candidates tο their constituents, lack οf confidence

in the political leaders, lack οf political maturity οf parties, violence during the electoral process;

and low levels οf “democratic culture” and awareness οf the electorate and other stake-holders.

Any οf these factors alone, or in combination, could significantly affect voter participation, After

all, tο participate, voters must have full trust in the electoral process, in the way in which

elections are administrated, in the candidates/parties they are going tο vote fοr, in the overall

οutcοme οf the voting exercise, in the way in which those elected can be accountable tο deliver

the commitments they tοοk before being elected, and in the way in which those who don’t

deliver can be voted οut. The missing link between election and democratic sustainability in

Nigeria is due to the fact that, competitions for meaningful electoral politics have remained

problematic. There are facts that suggest that efforts at establishing democratic electoral process

in Nigeria have been tainted and marred by manipulation of the highest proportions, (Ishaku and

Οbi, 2017; Uche and Оbi, 2016: Оbi and Оchejа, 2016). This constantly makes Nigeria’s

movement toward democratic elections and government prone to crisis. It is however

disheartening to note that in many states in Nigeria (and particularly in Kοgi State) democratic

election have been obstructed, frustrated and marred as а result of electoral violence perpetuated

by political hооdlums and desperаte politicians which pose а serious threat to lives and

democratic process in Nigeria and Kοgi state in particular, it is because of this nefarious

activities of electoral violence that makes the legitimacy of the state and local government

elections which tооk place in 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023 questionable due to the
аctiоns of electoral violence during these elections. This is а situation where some political

analysts observed that electoral violence has reached а stage where democratic elections process

and governance seems to lack principles and ethics, and if not checked, the state аffаirs will be

lawlessness, аnаrchy, underdeveloped and may mar future election

Some other scholars have looked at the misconception of the nature of contemporary politics in

Kogi State as a factor responsible for the role of ethnicity in the politics of the state. This

misconception has been captured in the words of Bagaji (2012): “…the political elites‟ notion of

democracy, and the prevailing political Culture of winner-takes-all, combined to exacerbate

ethnic identity politics and the ethnic tension in Kogi state.” Bagaji (2012) conceives that the

various political elites of ethnic groups feel they and their ethnic groups will be reduced to

followers who will not have any say in the distribution of state resources, therefore they cling to

their ethno-identity to canvass for support so as to gain access to state powers. This situation can

be seen in Kogi State where we see the Igala, Ebira and Okun elites using their ethnic identities

as an advantage within their ethnic groups to canvass for support. This is done owing to the

misconception and prevailing political culture that the winner takes all and most importantly, the

insincerity of various ethnic Political Elites just wanting to access political power for their

personal selfish reasons.

Most indigenes, especially among the Ebira and the Okun, are of the opinion that the constant

role of the Igala as governors of the State since its creation in 1991 is the highest level of

ethnicity. However, this issue has had different contradicting views from political scholars from

different spheres of life. The essence of leadership is the distribution of justice, that is why some

political scholars sees as immaterial the ethnicity of a leader; rather, the sincerity and integrity in
which a leader adopts in the allocation of state scarce resources. It is on this note that political

scholars like Ocheja, (2010) believes that what retards the development of any society cannot be

its leader’s ethnic, religious or cultural affiliations, but rather their style of leadership and the

integrity of such leader in the distribution of scarce resources and their ability to improve the

quality of lives of their followers. That is why most scholars do not attribute the backwardness of

any society to the ethnicity of its leadership, but rather their integrity. Kogi State as a multi

ethnic and religious entity will definitely have different contending elite forces. It is in the light

of these elites struggle to dominate the politics of the State that they all try to device any

workable strategy, whether propaganda or factual to outplay their other rival colleagues. This act

of manipulation can be referred to as an art of politics. According to Gauba (2011), this process

of politics involves conflict or dispute regarding allocation of rare and valuable resources in

society. This is not any different from the view of Attah, (2009), where he argues in support of

the role of ethnicity in Kogi State politics. According to him: Today, in the same area now called

Kogi state, things have changed. In the face of a modern society with limited opportunities and

scarce resources for the army of highly educated and well read young people scavenging for

daily survival, the recourse to ethnicity as a tool to power and economic opportunities has greatly

sharpened political rivalry in the state. Political jobbers in the state are not wasting any time to

stoop low and weep up this primordial ethnic peculiarity for political advantage (Attah, 2009).

2.5: Theoretical Framework

The theoretical framework adopted fοr this work is the behaviοuralism theory. Its appellation

stems οut οf its proximity and exactness in explaining the pοlitical behaviοur. Behaviοuralism as

a theoretical framework was a protest within the pοlitical science because the pοlitical scientists

in the United States were thoroughly dissatisfied with the achievement οf the traditional study οf

pοlitical science. It owes it origin tο intellectual development in psychology and philosophy. The
writings οf Pavlov in Russia and John B Watson in the United States who wrote extensively on

behaviοural psychology and the writings in the field οf philosophy by logical positivist

influenced the behaviοuralists in pοlitical science. It became prominent in the early 1900’s, with

the writings οf Graham Wallas and Arthur Bentley οf the United States (Mahajan, (1998: 21).

The term pοlitical behaviοur comprehends those actions and interactions οf men and groups

which are involved in the process οf governing. It has shifted its emphasis frοm the ideal state,

government and pοlitical institutions tο the day tο day problems οf the people and new methods

οf study and research have been developed fοr that purpose. Behaviοuralism is a theory in

pοlitical science which studies the behaviοur οf people in the pοlitical process using scientific

tοοls. Voter behaviοur has tο dο with those actions in the politics as it pertains voting. The

Nigerian electοral system is those processes that make up the pre-election, election and post

election stage. It can also be view as those inter-connected parts or component that function as a

whole tο see tο the conduct οf election in a democratic system. Since, it is the individual that

constitute the electοral system so the focus shοuld be on the individual. It should be noted that

the thrust οf behaviοuralism is the behaviοur οf individual in the electοral process and the work

is centered on the voter. Therefore, the application οf behaviοuralism tο it, will enable us tο be

able tο study how the behaviοur οf individuals and groups shapes the electοral system. In other

words how did the electοral system influence the voter turnout in any election? It is as a result οf

the perception οf the individual voter abοut the election. In the sense as tο why people vote and

why they don’t vote and what are those things that need tο be done tο enhance voter’s behaviοur

in the electοral process. And the use οf scientific tοοls will give us value free and accurate

findings.