|1

INVESTMENT THEMES & STOCK PITCH 2024 BSC Research – June 2024
 |2

Contents
01 WRAP UP SECTOR

02 INVESTMENT THEME

03 STOCK PITCH

04 APPENDIX
 |3

WRAP UP SECTORS
Vietnam's Economy is on the path to recovery with Q1 2024 NPAT increasing by |4

11.14% YoY

VN-Index

Source: Bloomberg, Fiinpro, BSC Research

Manufacturing, Industrials, Export, Retail, and Banking: Key Sectors to Watch |5

in Economic Recovery Cycle

% YTD
Market Capitalization by Industry Sector Sector
performance
Technology 54.6%
Basic Health Care
Materials 1% Consumer Discretionary 31.8%
Utilities 2%
Technology Telecommunications Telecommunications 29.9%
3%
4% 0%
Basic Materials 23.7%
Energy
Consumer Industrials 15.7%
5%
Staples
12% Utilities 15.3%
Consumer
Discretionar Others, Financials 14.2%
Industrials
y 53.0%
11%
7% Consumer Staples 13.3%
VNIndex 13.3%
VRE, 6.3%
Real Estate
Health Care 10.4%
13% VHM, 20.9%
Energy 6.9%
VIC, 19.8% Real Estate (Excl VIC,
Financials 4.6%
VHM, VRE)
42%
Real Estate -2.7%

Source: Bloomberg, Fiinpro, BSC Research

 |6

Sectors Our view 2H2024 Our view 2025

Technology - Telecommunication Outperform Outperform
Industrial Park Outperform Outperform HEADWIND:
F&B - Retail Outperform Outperform
▪ NPAT forecast lags due to the sluggish rebound in
Material Outperform Outperform the economics.
Textile Outperform Outperform
▪ Political risks affecting high-level personnel changes
Utilities Outperform* Outperform*
may hinder economic recovery.
Chemicals & Fertilizer Outperform Outperform
Ports & logistic Outperform Neutral ▪ Geopolitical tension drive supply chain disruptions.
Bank Neutral Outperform
▪ Recession in EU and US (Hard-landing scenario).
Fishery Neutral Outperform
Oil & Gas Neutral Neutral
Construction Neutral Neutral
Tyre Neutral Neutral
Automobile Neutral Neutral
Real Estate Neutral Neutral
Outperform: NPAT grows 15% and more
Neutral: NPAT grows under 15%
(*) exclude one-off profit
1H2024 BSC-Portfolio’s performance is at 20% compared to 13% of VNINDEX |7

6/10 stocks outperform VNI-Index, especially TCB stock (+50% YTD) Top 10 Portfolio’s performance is better than VNINDEX
70% 30%

60%
25%
TCB, 50%
50% Top 10, 20%

TNG, 34%
40% 20%
POW, 32%
VNINDEX, 13%
30% PHR, 23%
15%
VHC, 15%
20%
NLG, 14%
PNJ, 12% 10%
10% Top 14, 12%
HSG, 11%

0% STB, 4%
5%
PC1, 2%
-10%

-20% 0%
Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24

Notes: 02/01/2024 - 28/06/2024. Tickers are evenly allocated

Top 10 Portfolio has 6 out of 10 stocks outperform the market Top 14 Portfolio has 6 out of 14 stocks outperform the market
Overall Outperform Underperform Overall Outperform Underperform
Leader stock Laggard stock Leader stock Laggard stock
peformance VNINDEX VNINDEX peformance VNINDEX VNINDEX
TCB, TNG, POW, MWG, DRC, MBB, SZC, HT1, DHC,CTD,
20% TCB (+50%) PC1 (2%) HSG, PNJ, STB, PC1 12% MWG (+48%) LCG (-8%)
VHC, PHR, NLG ACB, CTG, HPG PVD, GAS, BID, LCG
 BSC-Universal is anticipated to sustain its upward earnings trajectory through 2025 |8

% Market Cap
sector / Total
% NPAT growth by sector 2023 2024F​ old 2024F new 2025F
market cap of our
coverage list

Material -28% 90% 103% 65% 6%

Fishery -60% 17% 9% 40% 1%
Construction 48% 89% 51% 38% 1%
Retail -69% 202% 225% 33% 4%
Chemicals & Fertilizer -65% 21% 17% 30% 2%
Textiles -34% 38% 42% 28% 0%
Bank 4% 18% 16% 22% 44%
Industrial Parks -6% 30% 15% 21% 6%
Technology 20% 22% 21% 20% 5%
O&G -22% -8% -5% 14% 9%
F&B -17% 19% 21% 11% 9%
Tire -20% 22% 24% 9% 0%
Utilities -21% 40% 43% 8% 3%
Real Estate 25% 1% 1% 8% 8%
Logistics & Ports 39% -18% -18% 8% 1%
Auto -6% 9% 3% 4% 2%
Total NPAT’s our coverage list (%) -5.0% 17.0% 16.5% 21.1%
Valuations largely reflect the growth in 2024 - Look ahead to 2025 for opportunities |9

2024FW 2025FW % Upside % Upside

(2020-Now) Highest PE Lowest PE Median PE PE ttm
PE PE 2025 2024
Bank (* P/B) 2.65 1.25 1.65 1.3 1.2 1.0 65% 38%
Materials 989.25 -133.68 12.64 19.5 13.9 8.4 50% -9%
Industrial 25.96 9.62 15.25 13.1 12.0 10.3 48% 27%
Textile 23.92 5.30 11.09 13.1 9.7 7.6 46% 14%
Fishery 209.82 -175.01 20.33 25.2 19.7 14.1 44% 3%
Real Estate (* P/B) 3.59 1.24 2.41 2.1 1.9 1.7 42% 27%
Construction 63.99 10.13 18.33 19.9 17.9 13.0 41% 2%
Port 44.19 11.41 18.10 24.2 15.1 13.9 30% 20%
F&B 25.11 13.71 20.54 21.1 18.6 16.8 22% 10%
Retail 115.78 7.47 18.62 51.1 22.5 16.9 10% -17%
O&G 56.29 5.20 12.60 14.1 14.2 12.5 1% -11%
Utilities 19.79 8.91 13.80 11.6 15.3 14.3 -3% -10%
Technology 29.54 9.49 18.58 28.4 24.5 20.4 -9% -24%
Note:
• Highest, lowest and median PE based on all tickers under ICB’s classification
As of 17/06/2024
• Trailing and forward PE based on BSC’s coverage
The P/B ratio will act as a lower bound for valuation during market correction. |10

2024FW 2025FW % Upside % Upside

(2020-Now) Highest PB Lowest PB Median PB P/B ttm
P/B P/B 2025 2024
Utilities 2.52 1.37 1.90 1.5 1.0 0.9 111% 90%
Port 3.95 0.79 2.67 2.2 1.7 1.5 78% 57%
Bank 2.65 1.25 1.65 1.3 1.2 1.0 65% 38%
Real Estate 3.59 1.24 2.41 2.1 1.9 1.7 42% 27%
F&B 3.98 1.91 2.99 3.5 2.6 2.5 20% 15%
Construction 2.45 0.71 1.29 1.1 1.1 1.1 17% 17%
Materials 2.76 0.69 1.35 1.7 1.5 1.3 4% -10%
Industrials 3.25 1.08 2.17 2.3 2.5 2.1 3% -13%
Retail 4.68 1.56 2.78 3.9 3.5 3.0 -7% -21%
Fishery 2.29 0.82 1.33 1.9 1.7 1.5 -11% -22%
O&G 2.32 0.76 1.28 1.9 1.7 1.5 -15% -25%
Textile 2.13 0.70 1.12 1.9 1.7 1.5 -25% -34%
Technology 7.10 1.70 3.18 7.0 5.5 5.3 -40% -42%
Note:
• Highest, lowest and median P/B based on all tickers under ICB’s classification
• Trailing and forward P/B based on BSC’s coverage As of 17/06/2024
2024-2025 EPS’s growth is main driver of bull trend |11

16% 1800

1600
14%

1400
12%

2025F E/P = 10.2% 1200

10%
2024F E/P = 8.2%
1000

8%

800

6%
600

4%
Deposit rate 12M expected to increase
by 25-50bps to 5.5%-5.7% 400

2%
200

0% 0
Dec-08

Dec-09

Dec-10

Dec-11

Dec-12

Dec-13

Dec-14

Dec-15

Dec-16

Dec-17

Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20

Dec-21

Dec-22

Dec-23

Dec-24

Dec-25

Dec-26
E/P (LHS) Deposite Rate (LHS) Vnindex (RHS)

Source: Bloomberg, Fiinpro, BSC Research

 Adjusted VN-Index: FY25 PE=13.5x – relatively equivalent to the -1 STD level |12

28

26

24

22

20

18
16.4
16
13.5
14
12.2
12
9.8
10

8
Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24 Jul-24 Jan-25 Jul-25 Jan-26

VNIndex (exclude Bank, Real Estate) Adjusted net earning PE VNIndex (exclude Bank, Real Estate)
PE VNIndex -2x Std -1 Std
Mean PE (exclude Real Estate, Bank) +1 Std +2x Std

In Conclusion:
• 1H2024: Outperformance for the sectors with positive outlook of recovery: Stock pitch has been the king
• 2H2024: On-going divergence and the concentration on FY25 earning growth
Source: Bloomberg, Fiinpro, BSC Research
Content Back up slide
Brief in wrap up sector |13

The VN-Index is anticipated to bounce back economically, based on Monetary easing

✓ Sector rotation: Technology, Industrials, Basic Materials moving to Basic Materials,
Energy, Staples

(1) Sustaining the momentum of upward earnings trajectory through 2025

✓ Recommendation: Material, Fishery, Chemicals & Fertilizer, F&B – Retail, Textiles,
Technology, Bank

(2) Valuation: Look ahead to 2025 for opportunities, earning growth will be key driver
✓ Recommendation : Bank, Material, Industrial, Textile, Real Estate...
Investment theme 2024F -2025F |14

▪ New steel policies will change players’ position.

✓ Main sector: Steels

▪ Rapid disbursement of the stimulus package related to Infrastructure, Energy – Oil &
Gas's sectors
✓ Main sector: Construction, Material, Utility, O&G

▪ The revival of export leading to an increase in margins and sales volume

✓ Main sector: Textiles, Fishery, Export

▪ Discounted valuation, a close link to the steady recovery of economic growth

✓ Main sector: Bank, F&B - Retail
 |15

INVESTMENT THEMES
2024 - 2025
STEEL: GALVANIZED STEEL VOLUME +20% YOY IN 2025F THANKS TO AD19 |16

In 2025, BSC expects domestic galvanized steel output +20% YoY thanks to (1) imposition of anti-dumping tax temporarily in Q1.2025 and officially in
Q3.2025, (2) domestic real estate market recover. BSC expects a growth rate of +20% yoy based on: (1) First, looking back at 2017, the domestic galvanized
steel industry +20% yoy after imposing anti-dumping tax (AD02), (2) low base of 2024.
Galvanized steel output from China being investigated for import into
Dometic price vs export price (Index = 100, Base = T1/2021) Vietnam (tons)
POI
200
60,000
180
160 50,000
140
120 40,000
100
80 30,000
60
20,000
40
20
10,000
0

Giá bán trong nước Giá nhập khẩu

Year 2021 2022 POI Year 2021 2022 POI

Domestic Price –Hoa Sen AZ100, 0.35 mm, VAT Domestic volume (tons) 2,036,481 1,744,435 2,313,952
28,550 31,417 26,215
(VNĐ/kg) Investigated volume (tons) 37,715 73,039 452,219
Import price- HS Code: 7212.30.13, VAT from China,
27,935 25,995 18,758
VAT (VNĐ/kg) Domestic volume (Index = 100) 100 86 114
% YoY -14% 33%
Dometic Price (Index = 100) 100 110 92 Investigated volume (Index = 100) 100 194 1,199
% YoY 10% -17% % YoY 94% 519%
Import Price (Index = 100) 100 93 67
% YoY -7% -28%
Note: POI = April 1, 2023 – March 31, 2024. BSC uses HS Code 7212.30.13 because it has the second Note: POI = April 1, 2023 – March 31, 2024. BSC notes that BSC only summarizes the output of galvanized
largest import value among the HS Codes under investigation and has complete data over the months. steel products investigated in the AD19 case.
STEEL: HRC DOMESTIC VOLUME + 20%-30% YOY IN 2025 – 26F THANKS TO AD DUTIES |17

The anti-dumping duties focus on trading companies, which don’t have origins and sell dumping HRC. In case of Anti-dumping duties on HRC from China being
approved, BSC expect domestic steel players (HPG + FHS) can increase by 1.5 -3 mn tons HRC/year, equivalent to 20%-30% yoy in 2025 – 2026F

HRC exports to Vietnam by company in 2023

Company Export Value (US) Weight (%) Type

ARSEN INTERNATIONAL 468,371,628 16% Trading companies
SHARPMAX INTERNATIONAL HONGKONG 427,769,446 14% Trading companies
WIN FAITH TRADING 423,394,758 14% Trading companies
AVIC INTERNATIONAL TRADE 213,026,796 7% Trading companies
POSCO 186,532,291 6% Steel manufacturing companies
CHINA STEEL CORP 129,920,287 4% Steel manufacturing companies
JFE SHOJI 121,598,898 4% Steel manufacturing companies
NIPPON 114,460,284 4% Steel manufacturing companies
GALLOP RESOURCES PTE LTD 74,089,942 3% Trading companies
BAOSTEEL 33,116,649 1% Steel manufacturing companies
BEAMPLUS INTERNATIONAL PTE LTD 19,167,782 1% Trading companies
OTHERS 745,493,811 25%
SUM 2,956,942,572 100%

HRC exports to Vietnam by type of company in 2023

Company Export Value (US) Volume (mn tons) Weight (%)

Steel manufacturing companies 585,628,409 1.9 20%
Trading companies 1,625,820,352 5.3 55%
Other trading and manufacturing 745,493,811 2.4 25%
SUM 2,956,942,572 9.64 100%
UTILITIES: Wind power developers take advantages |18

Excessive electricity in the central goes to the north 500kv line circuit 3 could be operated in 3Q.24 (base on work progress at 22/06)
10 Transmission demand 100% 100% 100%
The south needs Transmission capacity
8 to release power 80% 9-Apr
capacity to 22-Jun
500kv line circuit 3’s capacity
G 6
ensure grid safety
60%
59%

R
I 4 40%

D 2 20%
17%

0 0%
South - Centre Centre - North Clearance Casting foundation Erecting steel columns Stringing lines

Solar and wind farms in the central improve the utilization which create challenge for the north thermal power plants
Wind and LNG power are in priority (MW) HDG and REE potentially increase wind power capacity in the future
35,000 MW
800
30,000 27,880
700
P 25,000 22,400 600
O 20,000 500
400
W 15,000 400
E 300 230
264 254
10,000
R 200
121 126
3,961
5,000
100 50
0 0
0 0
Wind LNG Solar Hydro power Coal-fired Gas-fired HDG GEG REE BCG

2022 2030 Based on PDP8 2023 capacity 2025 capacity 2030 capacity
UTILITIES: Hydro power benefits from Lanina |19

THERMAL POWERS: update on LNG and natural gas HYDRO POWERS could increase output as La nina begins stronger

Natural Gas LNG 100

90
80
Apr - 24 Phu My gas-fired power used LNG 70
60
50
40
The celling price for mobilizing LNG 30
May - 24 power is 2.590,82 VND/kwh 20
10
0
May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25
Lo B – O Mon El Nino Neutral La Nina
could have FID
Q3 - 24
Benefit Affected

Phu My 2.2 is haned over to EVN and Lanina Hydro Power Thermal Power
Feb - 25 uses 100% LNG

Renewable energy,
500kv line circuit 3 North Thermal Power
South Thermal Power
Nhon Trach 3 and 4 LNG power plants
Q1 - 25 operate
Renewable Energy,
New capacity
LNG-fired Power

Stock pick REE, HDG Positive Semi-negative

 EXPORT – LOGISTICS – CONSUMER & RETAIL |20

The data for 1Q2024 aligns with the BSC’S perspective … Indicator in 2H/2024-2025:
The returning order had supported the Recruitment demand for labor-intensive The Fed’s decision to lower interest rates
business results in 1Q2024 industries tends to recover serves as a positive indicator for the
resurgence of demand
Increase from
+11%YoY to 6.0% 100.0
200,000 +126%YoY)
75% PMI - 50
180,000 5.0% 90.0
160,000
55% 140,000 4.0% 80.0
120,000
100,000 3.0% 70.0
35%
Logistics and port (2) +19%YoY
80,000
60,000 2.0% 60.0
Retail(4) +18%YoY
15% 40,000
Export (1) +9%YoY 1.0% 50.0
20,000
Consumer(3) +7%YoY
-
-5% 0.0% 40.0

10/01/2019
03/01/2020
08/01/2020
01/01/2021
06/01/2021
11/01/2021
04/01/2022
09/01/2022
02/01/2023
07/01/2023
12/01/2023
05/01/2024
10/01/2024
03/01/2025
-25%
03/01/2023
01/01/2022
03/01/2022
05/01/2022
07/01/2022
09/01/2022
11/01/2022
01/01/2023

05/01/2023
07/01/2023
09/01/2023
11/01/2023
01/01/2024
03/01/2024

HCMC Binh Duong Province Dong Nai Province

Federal Funds Effective Rate (%) Consumer Sentiment index

* Noted: Industry groups are classified based on the stocks BSC covers.
EXPORT – LOGISTICS – CONSUMER & RETAIL
At what point does the valuation of these sectors start to become attraction?
Fishery and Textile Seaport and Logistics Consumer and retail
Fishery: Neutral – Textile: Buy Seaport: Neutral – Logistics: Buy Consumer: Neutral – Retail: Buy
Selected stock: TNG Selected stock: HAH Selected stock: MSN,MWG, PNJ
30.0

P/E FW 2025 = 14.6

25.0 45.0 70.0

40.0
60.0
20.0 35.0
50.0 P/E FW 2025 = 17.3
30.0 P/E FW 2025= 22.1
15.0 40.0
25.0
P/E FW 2025 = 7.7
20.0 30.0
10.0 P/E FW 2025= 17.1
15.0 P/E FW 2025 = 8.4
20.0
10.0
5.0
10.0
5.0
-
- -

Fishery Textile Seaport Logistics Retail Consumer

*Our attractive buying area for fishery is at the P/E FW *Our attractive buying area for seaport is at the P/E FW
2024 = 8-10x (current at 18.5/12x for 2024/2025) 2024 = 20 - 21x (current at 26.5 for 2024)
BANKING: WHAT WE ARE WATCHING |22

FY24 OUTLOOK
DRIVERS COMMENTS REVISIONS
Negative Neutral Positive

MACRO ENVIRONMENT

FX reserve spot sale (nearly USD 6bn YTD) to cope with FX pressure causing negative impacts on M2
Monetary policy
which lead to rising deposit rates and a less favorable environment
Contiuous effort to boost public disbursements, more aggressive measures such as a 30%-raise in
Fiscal policy
public employees’ salary since 01/07/2024 (a potential boost to GDP growth)

Corporate prospects Improving on FY23 low base, focusing on sectors relating to exports, public investments, FDI, …

Bumpy recovery as more time is required to address issues regarding projects legal and supply balance
Real estate market
in affordable segments which inherently has real demand
Improving exports and continuing FDI flows, but countered by slowing growth in major markets,
Economic growth
geopolitical tensions (exo) and slow credit growth, increasing reliance to FDI sectors (endo)

SECTOR’S FUNDAMENTALS

Stimulus measures accompanied with a relatively-low-interest environment to fuel demand,

Credit growth
acceleration expected in 2H despite sluggish 1H (2024F system: +14% vs. +5% after 1H)
Increasing impacts from post-CIC, trade-offs with provision expense ramping up for write-off, policy
Asset quality
supports with the extension of Cir. 02 on loan restructuring, amended regulations for the long run
Slightly expanding primarily thanks to lower COF on YoY basis, partly offset by contracting AY to
NIM
stimulate credit demand (2024F coverage: +4bps YoY on average vs. +7bps old forecast)
Expected to stay under pressure with stubbornly high NPL formation and narrowing provision buffer
Credit cost
(2024F coverage: +2bps YoY on average vs. +4bps old forecast)
Improving on FY23 low base (2024F coverage: +16% YoY vs. +18% old forecast), but a strong divergence
Earnings growth
expected between players
Source: BSC Research
BANKING: RECURRING NPL PRESSURE |23

Pressure on asset quality remains, which in turn limits the potential for NIM NPL formation is rising again in 1Q24 (and likely farther in 2Q24) after three
recovery, as expected consecutive quarters of improvement
0.05 2.4% 50,000 0.75%

2.2% 40,000 0.60%

0.045

2.0% 30,000 0.45%

0.04

1.8% 20,000 0.30%

0.035
1.6% 10,000 0.15%

0.03
1.4% - 0.00%

0.025 (10,000) -0.15%

1.2%

*Coverage only
0.02 1.0% (20,000) -0.30%

1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24

NIM (LHS) NPL (RHS) NPL formation (LHS) NPL formation rate*

Source: Banks’ FS, BSC Research

BANKING: IF HISTORY IS ANY GUIDE |24

2014 - 2016: Restructuring period 2017 - 2020: Period of high earnings growth 2020 - 2022: Period of ‘cheap’ money that fuels Previous Call
after 2011-2013 real estate crisis and easing provision pressure NIM expansion and bottom line growth

Mean P/B this period: Mean P/B this period: Mean P/B this period: P/B FY23-end:
- SOCBs = 1.4x - SOCBs = 2.2x - SOCBs = 2.3x - SOCBs = 2.1x
- PCBs = 1.0x - PCBs = 1.3x - PCBs = 1.6x - PCBs = 1.1x

2014-2016: Restructuring period
Sector-wide earnings growth was weak,
coupled with issues in asset quality. 2014-
2015 recored the lowest earnings growth of
the sector in history (<10%/yr).
- SOCBs: a slight rally towards end-2015,
mainly BID and VCB, avg. P/B ranged from
min 1.2x to max 2.1x.
- PCBs: relatively underperforming.
2017-2020: The real tsunami
Earnings growth reached record-highs (30-
40%/yr in 2017-2018). Asset quality was
improved (both on-BS and VAMC) along
with high credit growth. BID and VCB both
had private placement in 2019.
- SOCBs: avg. P/B ranged from min 1.5x to
max 3.3x.
- PCBs: avg. P/B ranged from min 0.9x to
max 2.1x.
2020-2022: The black swan
NIM surged during COVID period with stable
credit growth, assisting sector’s earnings
growth (>30%/yr in 2021-2022). The events
of THM, VTP, SCB, exchange rate, liquidity
crisis then contributed to the crash in 2022.
- SOCBs: avg. P/B ranged from min 1.8x to
max 3.0x.
- PCBs: strongest rally, avg. P/B ranged from
min 0.9x to max 2.4x.
Current: Uncertainties
Asset quality issues return while credit
growth appears sluggish, causing earnings
growth to weaken (+4% YoY in 2023).
BSC forecast our coverage’s NPATMI 2024F to
grow by 16% YoY.
After the rally in 1Q24 (sector rotation)
which is attributed to attractive valuation, we
expect more divergence from here, and thus
become more selective with stock picks.
 TOP 5: STOCK CALL IN 2024 |25

Market Revenue % YoY Revenue NPATMI % YoY NPATMI EPS P/E FWD P/B FWD ROA ROE Closing
Target
Ticker cap Price Upside
Price
(VND Bn) 28/6/2024
2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F

HPG 187,730 146,136 189,896 23% 30% 13,806 22,627 102% 64% 2,159 3,538 13.6 8.3 1.6 1.3 7% 8% 12% 16% 28,300 38,600 36%

CTG 174,525 61,584 69,713 16% 13% 22,704 28,145 14% 24% 4,228 5,241 7.7 6.2 1.2 1.0 1% 1% 17% 17% 31,000 42,000 35%

MSN 108,172 82,330 90,458 5% 10% 1,433 2,501 242% 75% 1,001 1,747 75.5 43.3 3.2 2.9 2% 4% 7% 11% 74,700 100,000 34%

TNG 2,895 7,932 9,659 12% 22% 321 411 47% 28% 2,853 3,645 9.0 7.0 1.4 1.2 5% 6% 16% 17% 26,000 33,000 27%

MWG 92,560 131,734 141,485 11% 7.4% 4,114 5,451 2354% 32% 2,814 3,724 22.5 17.0 3.2 2.8 6% 8% 13% 17% 62,400 79,000 27%

*Closing price as 28/06/2024

Source: BSC Research

 TOP 10: TENTATIVE CALL IN 2024F – 2025F |26

Market Revenue % YoY Revenue NPATMI % YoY NPATMI EPS P/E FWD P/B FWD ROA ROE Closing
Target
Ticker cap Price Upside
Price
(VND Bn) 28/6/2024
2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F

PVS 19,931 26,030 40,435 34% 55% 1,177 1,402 15% 19% 2,463 2,934 17.7 14.9 1.7 1.6 4% 5% 10% 10% 40,600 57,100 41%

VPB 147,967 49,516 59,616 30% 20% 14,165 17,978 42% 27% 1,785 2,266 10.6 8.4 1.1 1.0 2% 2% 10% 12% 18,650 24,500 31%

STB 55,802 25,358 29,270 15% 15% 9,333 13,249 21% 42% 4,951 7,028 6.2 4.4 1.0 0.9 1% 2% 19% 21% 28,800 37,200 29%

HSG 15,400 38,293 44,479 21% 16% 870 2,179 3687% 150% 1,455 3,643 17.8 7.1 1.3 1.1 5% 11% 7% 16% 23,900 30,500 28%

DDV 2,988 3,445 3,613 8% 5% 142 240 106% 69% 973 1,645 20.4 12.0 2.1 2.1 8% 14% 11% 18% 18,800 23,900 27%

PNJ 32,285 40,142 38,527 21% -4% 2,154 2,628 9% 22% 5,865 7,337 15.0 12.3 2.9 2.5 14% 15% 19% 20% 95,500 118,000 24%

PVT 10,360 12,584 13,847 32% 10% 1,225 1,359 26% 11% 3,235 3,757 8.8 7.9 1.0 0.8 7% 8% 14% 14% 28,600 34,500 21%

DGC 47,358 11,385 13,710 17% 20% 3,317 4,184 7% 26% 8,735 11,016 14.7 11.6 14.7 11.6 22% 23% 27% 28% 122,500 147,100 20%

SSI 51,235 8,147 9,571 14% 17% 3,070 3,510 34% 14% 1,884 2,154 18.0 15.8 1.9 1.7 4% 5% 10% 11% 33,950 40,000 18%

HAH 5,363 3,169 3,943 21% 24% 309 516 -18% 62% 2,799 4,272 16.7 10.3 1.8 1.5 5% 9% 9% 14% 45,250 53,000 17%

*Closing price as 28/06/2024

Source: BSC Research

HPG – KING OF STEEL |27
TP: 38,600 VNĐ – Upside +36%
LUẬN ĐIỂM ĐẦU TƯ Trading information Update 28/06/2024
Current price (VND) 28,300
Investment thesis
Market capital (VND bn) 187,729
• HPG's business results will recover strongly in 2024 thanks to increased domestic steel output and
more positive steel price movements. In 2024, BSC forecasts that HPG will record Revenue = 146,136 ADTV 6M (mn) 25.3
billion VND (+23% yoy), NPATMI = 13,806 billion VND (+102% yoy), equivalent to EPS FWD 2024 = Room left for foreigners 24.6%
2,374 VND/share, P /E FWD 2024 = 14.8, P/B FWD 2024 = 1.8x based on: Output + 16% YoY; Gross
Domestic construction steel output +24% MoM + 120% YoY in April 2024,
profit margin = 15.9%. signaling recovery

• Dung Quat 2 project will soon be filled to 90% by 2026 and help HPG increase revenue scale in 2026 600,000
T4: +24% MoM
+ 60% and increase profit in 2026 to 2.46 times compared to 2024, thanks to (1) calculating 500,000

Economies of scale help HPG reduce production costs, (2) DQ 2's start-up time is consistent with the 400,000

new cycle of the real estate and steel industries. 300,000

• HPG valuation is cheap before the period of strong expansion and new steel cycle: With BSC's 200,000

forecast: NPATMI FWD 2025 = 22,732 billion VND, NPATMI FWD 2026 = 32,919 billion VND, HPG 100,000
shares are trading at P/E FWD 2025 = 9.0x, P/B FWD 2025 = 1.4x; P/E FWD 2026 = 6.3x, P/B FWD 2026 -
= 1.1x. T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12

Catalyst: (1) Steel prices increase, (2) DQ2 comes into operation. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Steel price movement from 2023 - up to now

16,500
2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F March steel prices adjusted down
16,000
2%, still higher than October level
PE (x) 28.7 14.8 9.0 6.3 Net revenue 118,953 146,136 189,896 238,710 15,500
15,000
PB (x) 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.2 Gross Profit 12,938 23,207 36,828 48,921 14,500

PS (x) 0.80 1.3 1.40 1.08 NPATMI 6,835 13,806 22,627 32,660 14,000
13,500
ROE (%) 9% 7% 12% 16% EPS 1,175 2,159 3,538 5,106 13,000
12,500
ROA (%) 5% 4% 7% 8% EPS’s Growth -19% 84% 64% 44%

Source: BSC Research

CTG – PLAYING THE WAITING GAME |28
TP: 42,000 VND - Upside +35%
INVESTMENT THESIS Trading information 28/06/2024
Investment thesis: Closing price (VND) 31,000
1. Better-than-peer short-term outlook. CTG sustains better NIM trend than other SOCBs thanks to a Market cap. (VND bn) 166,470
more progressive growth in credit (while shifting focus to retail and FDI segments). BSC expects this
Trading volume 30D (mn shares) 7.16
trend to continue throughout 2024 with a forecast of 4bps NIM expansion and 15.1% credit growth.
2. Potential for earnings surprise during 2025F-2026F. We maintain our expectation that CTG’s credit Foreign room left 3.7%
cost should stay flat in 2024 but trend down from 2025, boosting 2025F-2026F NPATMI growth to VN-Index vs. Stock price
40,000 1,600
reach 23%/year on average in our base case. Bad debt collection may be a potential source of
1,400
earnings surprise during this period. 30,000
3. Room to uplift valuation acceptance. With P/B TTM = 1.4x and P/B 2024F = 1.2x, CTG is now traded 1,200
20,000
just equivalent to top-tier PCBs. We see room for CTG, with its position of a SOCB, to win a higher 1,000
valuation acceptance as the bank is entering a phase of improving ROAE. 10,000 800

01/22
03/22
05/22
07/22
09/22
11/22
01/23
03/23
05/23
07/23
09/23
11/23
01/24
03/24
05/24
Risk: (1) Lower-than-expected NIM due to the strain on lending rates; (2) Recurring NPL formation
leading to persistently high credit cost.
CTG (LHS) VN-Index (RHS)

2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2022 2023 2024F 2025F Credit cost to reduce substantially till FY28
2.5%
P/B (x) 1.22 1.16 1.22 1.02 TOI (VND bn) 64,117 70,548 80,054 91,030
2.0%
ROAE (%) 16.7 17.1 16.6 17.4 PBT (VND bn) 20,946 24,990 28,506 35,336 1.5%

NIM (%) 3.03 2.90 2.94 2.94 EPS (VND) 3,491 3,706 4,228 5,241 1.0%
0.5%
Credit cost (%) 1.98 1.83 1.82 1.66 BVPS (VND) 22,354 23,279 27,507 32,749
0.0%
NPL (%) 1.24 1.13 1.03 1.03 Credit growth (%) 12.1 15.5 15.1 14.0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

LLCR (%) 186.2 167.2 166.4 156.6 Deposit growth (%) 9.3 13.9 15.9 13.8 Higher-Lower bound CTG BID

Source: BSC Research

MSN – UNLOCK THE EFFECTIVE PHASE |29
TP: 100,000 VND - Upside +34%
INVESTMENT THESIS Trading information 28/06/2024

Bright spots came from events at the end of Q1 – beginning of Q2/2024: Expectations of MSR’s business operations Current Price (VND) 74,700
improving when resuming blasting operations and an investment of over 6,000 from Bain Cap and dividend flow from MCH Market Cap (VND Bn) 106,294
and TCB, information related to divesting from the ineffective non-consumer business segment, helping to reduce financial
Trading volume 30D (mn) 5.2
leverage for MSN.
Foreign room left 20.3%
Investment thesis: Following a rapid growth phase in scale (CAGR DT 2019-2023 +20%), parallel to the pressure from high
Net Debt/EBITDA leverage, we believe that the period 2024-2025 will be when MSN begins to demonstrate operational
effectiveness, in which: Performance of MSN and VNindex
(i) The Crown X is expected EBIT’s Growth in +16% YoY/+19% YoY, thanks to MCH’s ability to maintain growth momentum 100,000 1,350
and WCM approaching the break-even point in 2024 and achieving operational profit at a net profit margin of ~0.5% in 90,000 1,250
2025. 80,000
1,150
70,000
(ii)The Net debt/EBITDA leverage to < 3.5 times, thanks to investment capital from Bain Capital and the move to divest non- 60,000
1,050
consumer segments. 50,000 950
40,000 850
• There is an investment opportunity at a stage where the stock price is still deeply discounted compared to the Vnindex and

May-23

Jul-23
Jun-23

Nov-23

Apr-24
Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-23

Dec-23
Jan-24
Feb-24
Mar-24
has not yet reflected the opportunity from the revaluation of TCX and the trend of reducing debt leverage.
Risk: Lower business results than our expectation MSN VN Equity (R1) VNINDEX Index (L1)

2022 2023 2024 Vnindex 2021 2022 2023 2024 Details in Operating profit

P/E (x) 26.6 228.0 68.1 14.3 Net revenue 88,629 76,189 78,252 81,632 20,000
15,000
P/B (x) 7.6 8.6 9.6 1.8 Gross profit 22,135 21,035 22,121 24,640
10,000
ROE (%) 13.0% 4.9% 7.7% 12.3% NPATMI 8,563 3,567 419 1,402 5,000
-
ROA (%) 3.4% 1.3% 2.1% 2.0% NPAT'S margin (%) 10% 5% 1% 2% (5,000)
(10,000)
2022 2023 2024E 2025F

MCH MML MSR WCM TCB Others

Nguồn: BSC Research
TNG – STRONG RECOVERY OUTLOOK |30
TP: VND 33,000 - Upside +27%

Investment Thesis Trading information 28/06/2024

Current Price (VND) 26,000
Investment thesis:
Market Cap (VND Bn) 2,890
1. In 2024/2025, BSC expect TNG’s business result will recover by +49%/+28% yoy thanks to:
Trading volume 6M (mn) 2.48
• Textile order +14%/+22% yoy in 2024/2025 as (1) low inventory pressure (2) picking up demand in
Foreign room left 35.1%
TNG main export market (3) the current orders have fully fulfilled until the end of Q4.2024.
• Unit price +5%/+1% yoy in 2024/2025 as the demand for textile product is picking up. Hence, TNG’s
TNG versus VNI
GPM will increase by 0.8/0.1 percentage point in 2024/2025. 1,400 30,000

• Reducing interest expense thanks to low interest environment of 2024. 1,200

1,000
25,000
20,000
800
2. TNG is trading at a low valuation of 2025. P/E FW 2025 = 6.7 which is extremely low in comparison 600
15,000
10,000
400
with the last cycle average = 8.5 times and industry average = 9 times. 200 5,000
- -
Risk:
▪ The demand in the US does not pick-up as BSC expected. VNI TNG

▪ US inventory has not declined as BSC expected

US clothes retail revenue

2023 2024F 2025F Peers 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 26500
26000
PE 9 8.3 6.5 14 Net revenue 6,772 7,096 7,932 9,659
25500
PB 1.3 1.2 1.1 2.1 Gross profit 999 982 1,158 1,414 25000
24500
PS 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.8 NPATMI 293 226 321 411
24000
ROE (%) 12% 16% 19% 16.6% EPS 2,787 2,127 2,853 3,645 23500

ROA (%) 4% 6% 6% 8% EPS’s growth 11% -24% 49% 28%

|30
Nguồn: BSC Research
MWG – April showers bring May flowers |31
TP for 2025: 79,000 VND - Upside +27%
INVESTMENT THESIS Trading information 28/06/2024

Update on Business Results for 5M2024: Net revenue reached VND 54,240 billion (+15%YoY). This growth was driven by Current Price (VND) 62,400
two main factors: Market Cap (VND Bn) 90,659
(1) The Mobile World (TGDĐ) and Dien May Xanh (ĐMX) recorded a growth of +6% YoY Trading volume 30D (mn) 9.46
(2) Bach Hoa Xanh (BHX) recorded a growth of +42%YoY. In which, revenue per store in May,2024 reached VND 2 billion. We Foreign room left 0.9%
estimate that with accumulated revenue of April and May, BHX has recorded a slight profit at the after-tax profit margin of
approximately 0.47%.
Performance of MWG and Vnindex
Investment Thesis (refer to the most recent report):
70,000 1400
• Optimistic Growth Expectations for 2024E/2025F (+2353.72% YoY/+29.8% YoY) Thanks To: 60,000 1200
50,000 1000
40,000 800
2024E: (1) Recovery in Operating Margin for TGDĐ and ĐMX: Margins are expected to improve from 2.5% in 2023 to 5-6% in 30,000 600
2024, driven by a positive industry outlook. (2) Profitability at BHX: BHX is projected to achieve an operating margin of 20,000
10,000
400
200
+0.5% due to revenue growth per store and cost optimization. 0 0

2025F:(1) Improved Margins at BHX: BHX is expected to record an operating margin of a 3.4%, thanks to revenue growth
from existing stores and the expansion of new stores focusing on operational efficiency. (2) Sustained Profit for TGDĐ and
ĐMX: These segments are anticipated to maintain a profit of around VND 4,000 billion, supported by the recovery in overall MWG VN Equity (L) VNINDEX Index (R)

demand.
Additionally, positive signals from improved operational efficiency of the Erablue chain The recovery of business results on a low base brings the PE
FW to a reasonable level
Risk: There are risks associated with continued weak demand and profit margins being lower than expected.
PE ~ 392- 479 (lần)
10,000 // 150
+
8,000
2022 2023E 2024F 2025F 2022 2023A 2024F 2025F

NPAT - MI
100
6,000 5,136

PE
P/E (x) 21 509 21 16 Doanh thu thuần 133,405 118,280 131,734 141,485 4,000 NPAT 2024F 39 50
P/B (x) 3.6 3.7 3.0 2.6 Lợi nhuận gộp 30,782 22,521 27,132 29,032 2,000 2,293 PE FW 2024F
ROA (%) 7% 0% 6% 8% LNST-CĐTS 4,100 168 4,111 5,537 0 17 -
01/03/2023 01/03/2024 01/03/2025
ROE (%) 17% 1% 14% 16% EPS 2,801 115 2,808 3,732 NPAT -MI TTM(VND bln) P/E TTM(Lần)

Nguồn: BSC Research

PVS – GREAT ADVANTAGE IN WIND POWER CONTRACTS |32
TP: VND 57,100 - Upside +41%
Investment Thesis Trading information Updated 28/06/2024
PVS has great advantages thanks to possessing (i) a number of skilled engineers with competitive Current price (VND) 40,600
salaries compared to other countries in the region (ex: Korea, Taiwan) (ii) seaport infrastructure
Market capital (VND bn) 19,405
spanning the whole country (including deep-water port) to carry out construction for wind power
projects ADTV 1M (mn) 7.98

Investment thesis Room left for foreigners 20.88%

1,400 50,000
1. The outlook for work volume of M&C segment in 2025F is positive thanks to (i) foreign wind 1,200
40,000
power projects (1.2 billion USD backlog up to now) (ii) Block B - O Mon project (1 billion USD). Some 1,000
projects have not announced their value (EPCIC Yellow Camel) 800 30,000
600
2. Increase port productivity from (I) expanding port area (+ 30ha) and (ii) rearranging port layout to 20,000
400
decrease production time 200
10,000

3. Long-term prospects from the offshore wind power segment, thanks to the trend of renewable - -

Jun-23

Jul-23

Aug-23

Nov-23

Apr-24

May-24
Sep-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Feb-24
Mar-24
Oct-23
energy investment in Vietnam (PDP VIII) and other countries in the region.
CATALYST: (I) Block B - O Mon project chain achieved Final Investment Decision (ii) New wind power VNIndex pvs (RHS)
projects
Cơ cấu doanh thu
Risks: (1) Project implementation progress is slower than expected; (2) Strong fluctuations in oil prices
can negatively contracts Cơ khí & thầu xây lắp
17% (M&C)
2022 2023 2024F VN-Index 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 13%
Vận hành FSO/FPSO
PE (x) 17.8 22.1 17.5 14.8 Net revenue 16,413 19,349 26,030 40,435 9% 11%
PB (x) 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.9 Gross profit 865 948 1,377 2,162 51% Cho thuê tàu kỹ thuật
53% dầu khí
PS (x) 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.3 NPATMI 773 899 1,177 1,402 11%
10%
ROE (%) 9.5% 13% EPS Căn cứ cảng dầu khí
6.5% 7.6% 1,171 1,815 2,463 2,934 14%
ROA (%) 3.2% 3.5% 4.7% 2% % YoY EPS 29% -12% 35% 19% 11%
DV Khác

Source: BSC Research

VPB – THE RETURN OF THE WAR HORSE |33
TP: 24,500 VND - Upside +31%
INVESTMENT THESIS Trading information 28/06/2024
Investment thesis: Closing price (VND) 18,650
1. Earnings to rebound aggressively from 2024. With the recovery trend in the consumer finance Market cap. (VND bn) 147,571
segment, VPB is expected to regain a strong growth momentum from 2024 with NPATMI 2024F
Trading volume 30D (mn shares) 25.44
forecast to reach VND 14.2tn (+42.0% YoY) thanks to NIM recovery (+20bps YoY) and credit cost
trending down (-48bps YoY). Foreign room left 2.0%
2. Relatively attractive cash dividend policy. After the private placement deal for SMBC helped bring VN-Index vs. stock price
30,000 1,600
VPB's CAR to the highest in the industry, the bank plans to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of
around 30% NPAT in the next 5 years. In absolute terms, BSC expects VPB to pay at least VND 1,000 25,000 1,400

in cash dividend per share each year. 20,000 1,200

3. Competitive valuation compared to peers. VPB is trading at P/B TTM of 1.1x and P/B 2024F of 1.1x, 15,000 1,000
substantially lower than the peer average of 1.3x and 1.2x respectively.
10,000 800
Risk: (1) Continuously weak credit demand from retail sector resulting in lower-than-expected NIM; (2)

03/22
05/22
07/22
09/22
11/22
01/23
03/23
05/23
07/23
09/23
11/23
01/24
03/24
05/24
Issues in asset quality requiring longer time to resolve; (3) Slower-than-expected earnings recovery at
FECredit. VPB (LHS) VN-Index (RHS)

Positive trend recorded in FECredit’s PBT

2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 6,000
P/B (x) 1.24 0.99 1.09 1.02 TOI (VND bn) 57,797 49,739 62,262 75,023 4,000

ROAE (%) 20.7 8.62 10.3 12.1 PBT (VND bn) 21,220 10,804 17,556 22,446 2,000

NIM (%) 7.66 5.71 5.92 5.85 EPS (VND) 2,718 1,433 1,785 2,266 --

(2,000)
Credit cost (%) 5.66 4.96 4.49 4.17 BVPS (VND) 14,485 19,347 17,774 19,020
(4,000)
NPL (%) 5.73 5.02 4.43 3.90 Credit growth (%) 24.9 25.5 24.0 23.1 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24

LLCR (%) 54.4 52.1 57.8 58.0 Deposit growth (%) 13.5 33.6 23.3 25.3 FEC Separate Consol.

Source: BSC Research

STB – TURNAROUND WITH ATTRACTIVE CATALYST |34
TP: VND 37,200 – UPSIDE +29%
INVESTMENT THESIS Trading information As of 28/06/2024
Current price (VND) 28,800
INVESTMENT THESIS:
Market capital (VND bn) 54,294
1. Positive earnings growth prospects thanks to (1) the end of VAMC provisioning and (2) the
ADTV 30D (mn) 16.65
normalization of NIM, we expect STB to record NPAT 2024F at VND 11,600 bn (+21% YoY).
Room left for foreigners 5.6%
2. One-off income from selling legacy assets. STB has successfully bided 18 debts related to Phong Phu
IP, and has collected 20% of the total auction amount. The remainder will be paid within 2 years. 40,000 Stock price vs VN-Index 1,600

3. Valuation is still attractive compared to the banking sector. STB currently has a TTM P/B = 1.1x 1,400
30,000
compared to the average of large private banks (~1.4x). 1,200
20,000
CATALYSTS: Successful auction of 32.5% stake in VAMC resulted in STB recording profits and being able to 1,000

start paying dividends to shareholders in the following years. 10,000 800

06/22
08/22
10/22
12/22
02/23
04/23
06/23
08/23
10/23
12/23
02/24
04/24
06/24
RISKS: (1) The lengthy delay in the bidding of legacy assets; (2) Unexpected financial support required by
BAV; (3) Lower-than-expected NIM due to weak credit demand. STB (LHS) VN-Index (RHS)

Total operating income structure

4% 1%
10%
2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2022 2023 2024F 2025F
NII
P/B (x) 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 TOI (VND bn) 26,141 6,173 29,670 34,408 11%
4% Fee & Services
ROAE (%) 13.8 18.3 18.4 20.0 PBT (VND bn) 6,339 9,595 11,612 15,158 20% FX

NIM (%) 3.4 3.8 3.8 3.9 BVPS (VND) 20,489 24,259 28,638 34,990 2022 66% Securities
2023 Others
CIR (%) 41.8 49.2 47.2 44.7 Credit growth (%) 13.0 10.0 11.4 14.0
84%
Credit cost (%) 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 Mobil. growth (%) 7.2 12.3 12.9 14.3
Source: BSC Research
HSG – SUMMER COMES LOTUS BLOOMS |35
TP: VND 30,500 - Upside +28%
LUẬN ĐIỂM ĐẦU TƯ Trading information Update 28/06/2024
Current price (VND) 23,900
INVESTMENT THESIS
• HSG's consumption output is expected to reach 1.97 million tons (+17% YoY) in 2025 thanks to (1) domestic Market capital (VND bn) 14,722
real estate market recovery, (2) Imposition of anti-dumping tax on galvanized steel from China, helping HSG ADTV 6M (mn) 12.87
boost domestic channel. Room left for foreigners 27%
• Expected profit margin is 16%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points compared to 2024 thanks to (1) HSG
increasing the proportion of domestic channels with high profit margins (20%), (2) HRC steel price movement
Domestic volume of HSG
more favorable when China recovers.
140,000
FORECAST 120,000

• In 2024, BSC forecasts that HSG will record revenue = 38,293 billion VND (+21% yoy), NPATMI = 870 billion 100,000
80,000
VND (+3,704% yoy), based on assumptions: domestic output +26% yoy, export output +30% yoy, gross profit 60,000
margin = 12.1%. 40,000
20,000
• In 2025, BSC forecasts that HSG will record revenue = 44,853 billion VND (+16% yoy), NPATMI = 2,198 billion -
VND (+150% yoy), based on the assumptions: domestic output +24% yoy, production export volume -7% yoy, T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12

gross profit margin = 16%. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Exports volume of HSG

Catalyst: Steel prices increased thanks to China cutting steel production 160,000
140,000
2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
120,000
PE (x) 30.2 549.2 16.4 6.5 Net revenue 49,711 31,651 38,293 44,853 100,000
80,000
PB (x) 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.0 Gross Profit 4,939 3,028 4,626 7,174 60,000
40,000
PS (x) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 NPATMI 251 23 870 2,198 20,000
-
ROE (%) 2.3% 0.2% 7.4% 15.7% EPS 420 38 1,455 3,675 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

ROA (%) 1.5% 0.1% 5.0% 10.8% EPS’s Growth -95% -91% 3704% 153%
Source: BSC Research
 DDV – EARNINGS CREATE A NEW HIGH BASE |36
TP: VND 23,900 - Upside +27% Report Link

Report Link
Investment Thesis
Trading information Update 28/06/2024
Investment thesis:
Current price (VND) 18,800
1 Profit to create a new base level from 2025 is 2.3 times higher than the average in the period 2017 –
Market capital (VND bn) 2,863
2021 thanks to: (1.1) Factory ends depreciation from Q2/2025 and (1.2) Expectation that the VAT law will
ADTV 1M (mn) 2.7
be passed and take effect from 2025 to help increase business output and reduce input costs through input
Room left for foreigners 44%
tax refund;
10.0
2. Input material prices decreased offset the decrease in DAP prices, helping DDV maintain a profit margin DDV EV/EBITDA
in 2024F around 10%, up +2 points over the same period in 2023;
3. Healthy finance with a large amount of cash (accounting for more than 40% of total assets) is a 5.0
launching pad to help DDV research investment projects;
4. Valuation: BSC recommends BUY on DDV with a target price of 2025F of VND23,900/share, based on the
0.0
EV/EBITDA valuation methodology with a target ratio of 8.4x, corresponding to P/E fw 2025F = 11.4x
Risk: (1) The risk of increasing competition with imported DAP as China increases in DAP exports and; (2)
-2x Std -1x Std Median EV/EBITDA
the risk of ore shortage causing production output to be lower than estimated; +1 x Std +2 x Std DDV EV/EBITDA

DAP price improves

2023 2024F 2025F VN-Index 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
P/E (x) 32.7 19.3 11.4 14.3 Net revenue 3,270 3,210 3,445 3,613
P/B (x) 1.4 2.0 2.0 1.8 Gross Profit 490 262 364 494
P/S (x) 0.7 0.8 0.8 12.3% NPATMI 357 70 142 240
ROE (%) 4% 11% 18% 2.0% EPS 2,377 481 973 1,645
ROA (%) 3% 8% 14% 14.3 EPS’s Growth 82% -80% 102% 69%
Nguồn: BSC Research
PNJ – PRESSURE CREATE DIAMONDS |37
TP: 118,000 VND - Upside +24% Top 10: Stock Pitch

INVESTMENT THESIS Trading information As of 28/6/2024

Current price (VND) 95,500
Business results in 5M/2024: Net revenue and NPAT reached VND 19,546 billion (+36.9% YoY) and VND
1,051 billion (+8.5% YoY), respectively. In which, (1) Retail jewelry sales grew steadily by +12.8% YoY, Market capital (VND bn) 32,285
supported by the launch of several new collections, despite a general shift in demand from jewelry for ADTV 6M (mn) 0.76
adornment to investment purposes. (2) Sales of 24k gold continued to grow strongly, with a +90.9% YoY Room left for foreigners 0%
increase, driven by a vibrant gold market.

Investment thesis: Performance of stock price and VNINDEX

• 2024E (NPAT+ 9%YoY): PNJ has adapted to the industry's shift from jewelry demand to investment 30%
20%
demand, proving the business effectiveness of the jewelry segment under the context of tightened 10%
sales invoice control regulations. 0%
-10%
-20%
• 2025F (NPAT+ 22% YoY) PNJ is expected to expand market share and improve the operating profit -30%

margin.
PNJ (%YTD) VNIndex (%YTD)
Potential growth: Launch lifestyle model

Risk: Business results lower than expected due to competitive pressure and economic context Retaining higher sale’s base and protect earning

2023 2024 2025 Vnindex 2022F 2023F 2024 2025 60%

P/E (x) 17.8 16.5 13.2 14.4 Net Revenue 33,876 33,137 40,141 38,527 40%
20%
P/B (x) 3.2 2.9 2.5 1.8 Gross profit 5,927 6,059 6,953 7,534
0%
ROA (%) 14% 14% 15% 2% NPAT 1,811 1,971 2,154 2,628 -20%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024e 2025f
ROE (%) 20% 19% 20% 12% EPS 5,093 5,435 5,865 7,337
%Growth in new jewelry store

Source: BSC Research %Growth in retail sales/average store

DGC – THE EMPEROR OF CHEMICALS (PHOSPHORUS) |38
TP: VND 146,700 - Upside +20%
Trading information 28/06/2024
INVESTMENT THESIS
Current Price (VND) 122,500
Investment thesis:
Market Cap (VND bn) 46,333
1.Profit outlook improves: Net profit is expected to grow with CAGR = 22%% in the period 2023F –
Trading volume 30D (mn) 4.0
2025F thanks to recovery in yellow phosphorus production;
Foreign room left 30.1%
2.The medium-term growth potential comes from: (i) the Nghi Son - Duc Giang project is a highlight for
growth in the period of 2023F – 2026F, contributing 36% of profit growth in 2025F and (ii) capacity DGC P/E
20.0
growth through M&A strategy with a large cash base.
15.0
DGC's position will increase significantly when the Nghi Son – Duc Giang project comes into operation,
10.0
marking the first step involved in deeper processing of chemical products
5.0
3. Valuation: BSC recommends BUY on DGC stock with a target price of VND 146,700/share, based on
-
P/E methodology with target P/E 2025F = 13.x (equivalent to a 5-year median) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F

Risk: Political risks related to environmental issues P/E Median 5Y

Yellow phosphorus - VN export

10,000 8,000
2023 2024F 2025F VN-Index 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 8,000 6,000
P/E (x) 11.6 14.0 11.1 14.6 Net revenue 14,444 9,748 11,385 13,710 6,000
4,000
P/B (x) 3.0 3.3 2.7 1.7 Gross profit 6,750 3,440 3,888 4,849 4,000
2,000 2,000
P/S (x) 3.7 4.1 3.4 1.3 NPATMI 5,903 3,100 3,317 4,184
- -

Jan

Aug
Feb
Mar
Apr
May

Sep

Jan
Feb
Nov

Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul

Dec
Oct
ROE (%) 38% 27% 28% 13% EPS 13,774
7,673 8,735 11,016
ROA (%) 30% 22% 23% 2% EPS’s growth 5% -44% 14% 26% 2023 2024
Quantity(Tons) Price -RHS (USD)
Source: BSC Research
PVT – ENHANCING VESSEL’S CAPACITY |39
TP: VND 34,500 - Upside +21%
Investment Thesis
Trading information 28/06/2024
Investment thesis:
Current Price (VND) 28,600
BSC expects PVT’s business result driven by:
Market Cap (VND Bn) 5,154
1. High time charter rates (TC): TC for both crude oil and clean oil vessel groups remain steady, supported
Trading volume 6M (mn) 2.48
by the supply-demand imbalance in oil tankers and heightened ton-mile demand due to geopolitical
tensions. Similarly, TC freight rates for chemical ships show stability owing to consistent demand. Foreign room left 35.1%

2. Increasing leasing day +3%yoy thanks to positive impact due to more ships are out for charter 33,000 1,400
3. NPATMI is expected to increase by +15%yoy, driven by a one-time profit booked in 2025 from the 29,000 1,300
liquidation of the Synergy ship. Excluding abnormal gains, NPATMI for 2025 is projected to grow by
25,000 1,200
approximately +5%yoy.
21,000 1,100
Risk:
17,000 1,000
(1) Time charter rate lower than expected – We believe that the risk will be unlikely to occur in the next
year due to the complex of geopolitical conflicts.
PVT VNINDEX
(2) Price vessel and depreciation higher than expected.
USD/ngày
60,000
50,000
2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2022 2023 2024F 2025F
40,000

P/E (x) 8.8 10.4 10.1 8.7

Net revenue 9,047 9,556 12,138 13,553 30,000
Gross profit 1,655 1,839 2,469 2,770
20,000

P/B (x) 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.9 NPATMI

10,000
857 972 1,076 1,239 -
0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8

03/2018
07/2018
11/2018
03/2019
07/2019
11/2019
03/2020
07/2020
11/2020
03/2021
07/2021
11/2021
03/2022
07/2022
11/2022
03/2023
07/2023
11/2023
03/2024
P/S (x) EPS 2,490 2,825 2,841 3,272
ROA (%) 14.4% 13.5% 12.6% 12.9% EPS’s growth 29% 13% 1% 15%
Aframax - Dirty MR - Clean Handysize - Clean
Source: BSC Research
SSI – LEADING POSITION WITH PROMOTING PROSPECTS |40
TP: VND 40,000 – UPSIDE +18%
INVESTMENT THESIS Trading information As of 28/06/2024
Current price (VND) 33,950
INVESTMENT THESIS:
Market capital (VND bn) 51,235
1. Positive market outlook in 2024 due to (1) Low interest rates promoting investment cash flow into
ADTV 30D (mn) 26.92
the stock channel; (2) Market valuation is still attractive compared to history.
Room left for foreigners 6.1%
2. Leading position in the industry. SSI firmly maintains a market share of over 10% (top 2 in the
Stock price vs VN-Index
market), by the contribution of both individual and institutional customers. 40,000 1,400

3. Large margin lending scale & continues to expand. SSI will issue more than 453 million additional 30,000 1,200
shares in 2024, through the form of bonus shares and offerings to existing shareholders, thereby
20,000 1,000
increasing the total charter capital to VND 19,645 billion.
CATALYST: Prefunding prospects for foreign institutional clients, leading to promotion of the market from 10,000 800

frontier to emerging market.

RISKS: (1) Intense competition on fees among securities companies; (2) KRX system and Prefunding policy SSI (LHS) VNINDEX (RHS)

continue to be delayed; (3) Profits fluctuate strongly due to proprietary trading activities. SSI has huge of capital for margin lending
30,000
25,000
2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2022 2023 2024F 2025F
20,000
P/E (x) 12.4 21.4 18.0 15.8 TOI 6,336 7,158 8,147 9,571
15,000
P/B (x) 1.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 Gross profit 3,631 4,723 5,382 6,948 10,000

P/S (x) 4.2 6.9 6.8 5.9 NPATMI 1,699 2,294 3,070 3,510 5,000
-
ROA (%) 3.3 3.8 4.1 4.8 EPS (VND) 1,432 1,681 1,884 2,154
2020 2021 2022 2023 1Q24
ROE (%) 9.3 10.1 10.0 11.7 BVPS (VND) 15,031 15,503 17,478 19,800 Margin balance Total Equity
Source: BSC Research
HAH – THE DAWN ON THE SEA |41
TP: VND 53,000 - Upside +17%
Investment Thesis
Trading information 28/06/2024
Investment thesis:
Current Price (VND) 45,400
BSC expects HAH’s business result will rebound in 2025, driven by:
Market Cap (VND Bn) 5,154
1. Charter revenue +67% yoy in 2025 as (1) HAH’s two new vessels, which receive in T5.2024 and T8.2024,
Trading volume 6M (mn) 2.48
will be out for charter renting in 2025 (2) The re-roll 2025 TC rate is also expected to +20% comparing to
Foreign room left 35.1%
the current signed average rate as (i) at the moment, the TC rate is surging (+80% ytd) due to supply
chain disruption (ii) the rate is likely to keep at high level thanks to picking-up demand in 2025
2. Self-fleet operation revenue +23% yoy in 2025 as (1) the volume +19% yoy thanks to (i) picking-up
domestic and intra asia trade demand (ii) new line service with ONE (2) the spot rate +3.5% yoy.
3. Gross profit margin +4% percentage point in comparison with 2024 as (1) TC rate and spot rate are
strongly improved (2) more ships are out for charter.
Reasonable valuation to buy in at the recover stage of a long cycle sector. EV/EBITDA FW 2025 = 4.7x low
compare to the last cycle average of 6x.
Risk:
▪ Re-roll TC rate of 2025 is lower than BSC expected
▪ Demand for vessel is lower than BSC expected
2023 2024F 2025F Peers 2022 2023 2024F 2025F
Net revenue 3,206 2,613 3,169 3,947
PE 9 17 10 14
Gross profit 1,422 611 593 898
PB 1.3 1.8 1.6 2.1 NPATMI 829 385 309 516
ROE (%) 12% 16% 19% 16.6% EPS 12,142 5,636 2,784 4,272
ROA (%) 4% 6% 6% 8% EPS’s growth 33% -54% -51% 54%
Source: BSC Research
 APPENDIX: DETAIL IN OUR FORECAST |42

NPATMI NPATMI % Growth % Growth NPATMI NPATMI % Growth % Growth

Ticker Ticker
FY24 FY25 2024 2025 FY24 FY25 2024 2025
Banking 203,096 248,525 16% 22% Construction 1,221 1,682 51% 38%
MSB 5,274 6,148 14% 17% DPG 236 443 16% 88%
STB 9,333 13,249 21% 42% LCG 123 169 19% 37%
HHV 414 494 28% 19%
MBB 22,799 27,446 10% 20%
C4G 212 258 63% 22%
CTG 22,704 28,145 14% 24%
CTD 236 318 354% 35%
HDB 12,056 14,456 20% 20%
Industrial Park 10,606 12,781 15% 21%
VIB 8,967 11,644 5% 30% VGC 1,130 1,189 -7% 5%
VPB 14,165 17,978 42% 27% LHG 208 260 25% 25%
VCB 36,962 44,168 12% 19% GVR 3,229 3,595 23% 11%
TCB 21,792 26,717 21% 23% IDC 2,053 1,882 47% -8%
TPB 5,806 7,184 30% 24% SZC 388 485 77% 25%
ACB 18,229 21,674 14% 19% PHR 582 510 -6% -12%
KBC 1,896 3,295 -7% 74%
BID 25,008 29,716 16% 19%
SIP 1,121 1,566 21% 40%
Material 16,401 27,034 103% 65%
HSG 870 2,179 3687% 150%
HT1 (66) 83 -475% -225%
HPG 13,806 22,627 102% 64%
VCS 932 1,068 10% 15%
NKG 468 520 299% 11%
PTB 391 557 52% 42%
Real Estate 40,464 43,803 1% 8%
NLG 724 709 50% -2%
PDR 665 1,339 -3% 101%
KDH 874 939 22% 7%
IJC 496 595 26% 20%
VRE 3,981 4,476 -10% 12%
VHM 33,490 35,517 0% 6%
DXG 234 228 36% -3%
Source: BSC Research
 APPENDIX: DETAIL IN OUR FORECAST |43

NPATMI NPATMI % Growth % Growth NPATMI NPATMI % Growth % Growth

Ticker Ticker
FY24 FY25 2024 2025 FY24 FY25 2024 2025
Auto 6,368 6,653 3% 4% Fishery 1,041 1,459 9% 40%
VEA 6,368 6,653 3% 4% ANV 68 236 74% 247%
Chemicals 3,620 4,547 6% 26% VHC 973 1,223 6% 26%
DGC 3,317 4,184 7% 26% Logistics 3,097 3,302 -17% 7%
DHC 302 363 -2% 20% VSC 124 172 0% 39%
Fertilizer 2,378 3,281 40% 38% HAH 314 509 -18% 62%
DPM 615 906 18% 47% GMD 1,434 1,262 -36% -12%
DCM 1,621 2,135 46% 32% PVT 1,225 1,359 26% 11%
DDV 142 240 106% 69% F&B, Retail 25,874 30,262 45% 17%
O&G 23,684 26,943 -5% 14% DGW 490 590 38% 20%
PVD 841 984 44% 17% PNJ 2,154 2,628 9% 22%
PLX 3,400 3,665 20% 8% FRT 225 637 -165% 183%
PLC 103 130 2% 26% MWG 4,114 5,451 2354% 32%
GAS 13,340 14,389 15% 8% DBC 468 557 1770% 19%
BSR 4,823 6,373 -44% 32% MSN 1,433 2,501 242% 75%
PVS 1,177 1,402 15% 19% VNM 9,716 10,166 9% 5%
Tyre 305 333 24% 9% QNS 2,315 2,442 6% 5%
DRC 305 333 24% 9% SAB 4,467 4,666 8% 4%
Utilities 7,890 8,537 43% 8% BAF 491 624 1726% 27%
BWE 715 848 6% 19% Technology 8,534 10,264 21% 20%
REE 2,298 3,045 5% 33% FPT 7,867 9,460 22% 20%
HDG 771 911 16% 18% ELC 110 143 42% 30%
POW 2,558 2,271 146% -11% CTR 557 661 8% 19%
GEX 879 712 166% -19% Textitle 640 819 38% 28%
PC1 480 574 243% 20% MSH 319 408 30% 28%
NT2 189 177 -60% -7% TNG 321 411 47% 28%

Source: BSC Research