Philippine Journal of Science

151 (5): 1829-1844, October 2022

ISSN 0031 - 7683
Date Received: 09 Feb 2022

Understanding Rabies Transmission Dynamics

and Control in the Three Administrative Districts
of Davao City Using a Modified SEIV Model

El Veena Grace A. Rosero1§, Xyza Mae F. Arandela1§, Dejell Anne M. Satur1,

Zython Paul T. Lachica1,3, Arlene Lagare2, Ma. Noreen J. Eng2,
Gloria N. Marquez2, Maria Corazon B. Sepulveda2, Giovanna Fae R. Oguis1,
Eliezer O. Diamante1*, and May Anne E. Mata1,3

1Department of Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science,

University of the Philippines Mindanao, Davao City 8000 Philippines
2City Veterinarian’s Office, 2nd Floor City Hall Annex Building,
Pichon St., Davao City 8000 Philippines
3Center for Applied Modeling, Data Analytics,
and Bioinformatics for Decision Support System in Health,
University of the Philippines Mindanao 8000 Philippines

Despite the control programs of the City Veterinarian’s Office (CVO), rabies is still
geographically widespread across Davao City. Hence, a modified SEIV model incorporating
different control strategies and adding population compartments focusing on reported rabies
cases was formulated to understand dog rabies transmission dynamics. The model was fitted to
the datasets of CVO from 2006–2020, such as the cumulative monthly positive rabies cases and
the number of examined positive rabies samples in Talomo, Buhangin, and Poblacion districts.
Results showed that the Talomo district had the highest rabies transmission rate but the lowest
castration rate. On the other hand, the Poblacion district had the highest impounding rate and
castration rate but the lowest birth and vaccination rate. Finally, the Buhangin district had
the highest birth rate and vaccination rate but the lowest impounding rate and transmission
rate. Sensitivity analysis (SA) was performed on over 10,000 samples of parameter space by
the LHS method to obtain PRCC values. Results of the SA revealed that dog vaccination had
a significantly strong influence among many interventions in mitigating rabies transmission –
consistently in Talomo, Poblacion, and Buhangin districts. The results obtained in this study
support the CVO’s ongoing mass canine rabies vaccination campaign in the city as a method of
rabies control. Despite this, dog population control strategies (i.e. castration and impounding)
must still be implemented in addition to intensifying vaccination strategy, as the birth rate also
strongly contributes to increasing rabies transmission. Through the model and data fitting
approaches, this study has provided information on the level of control measures implemented
in three districts and can also be utilized to develop future rabies epidemiological models in
Davao City and other locations.

Keywords: control interventions, model fitting, rabies, SEIV model, sensitivity analysis

*Corresponding author: eodiamante@up.edu.ph

§Both authors contributed equally to this work

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INTRODUCTION
Rabies infection is a deadly disease caused by the rabies
virus (WHO 2021; Brunker and Mollentze 2018). It is
considered one of the neglected diseases that mainly
affect the poor and vulnerable populations; however, there
have been rarely reported cases of deaths and infections
in those populations (WHO 2021). In the Philippines,
rabies remains to be endemic wherein every year, 200–300
Filipinos die of rabies, which made the Philippines one
of the top 10 countries in rabies incidence worldwide
(WHO 2018a; DOH 2020; Evangelio et al. 2020) where
dog-related injuries such as bites and scratches account
for nearly all cases of human rabies (Dimaano et al. 2011).
Several initiatives are administered locally such as mass
vaccination of dogs (Estrada et al. 2001); the establishment
of a central base system for registered and vaccinated dogs
(Lapiz et al. 2012); impounding (Tenzin et al. 2010);
field control and disposition of unregistered, stray, and
unvaccinated dogs (Amurao et al. 2017); and conduct of
information and education campaigns on the prevention
and control of rabies (Tenzin et al. 2010). These programs
are mandated by the Republic Act No. 9482, also known
as the Anti-Rabies Act of 2007 (DOH 2007), to ensure
that a system for the control and prevention of the spread
of rabies virus is provided for its eventual eradication.
Locally, the City Veterinarian’s Office (CVO) in Davao City
has been conducting its intensified rabies control program
(IRCP) (CVO 2021) across 11 administrative districts that
are composed of mass dog vaccination; population control
through castration; dog impounding; and conducting
information, education, and communication (IEC) sessions
(Lachica et al. 2020, 2021; Diamante et al. 2021; Montajes
et al. 2021) to control the spread of rabies infection with
a goal of making Davao City rabies-free sooner than
the national goal of a Rabies-Free Philippines by 2030
(Mananggit et al. 2021). Despite the local implementation
of the IRCP, animal rabies reportedly remained endemic
in Davao City since 2010. Considering a progressive drop
in reported cases from 2011–2015 – with variations across
months – there was an increase from 2016–2017, which
could be related to increased disease reporting awareness
and practices (Lachica et al. 2019; Montajes et al. 2021).
A study by Montajes et al. (2021) in understanding the
dynamics of rabies and its control in Davao City through
hotspot analysis, reported that impounding of dogs has
been found to significantly contribute to controlling rabies
spread in Davao City by capturing street dogs that could
potentially increase the transmission. Further documented
by Lachica et al. (2019), who studied the trends of canine
rabies and the impact of the IRCP in Davao City through
count regression modeling, stated that impounding is a
method of removing dogs in the population; hence, when
a stray dog is exposed to the virus (contains the virus but
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and Control in Davao City
not yet contagious), removing it will limit its ability to
spread the virus. Although this may not be feasible in
terms of resources, less resource-demanding and humane
alternatives such as adoption programs, castration (CVO
2020), and vaccination of dogs can be considered (Lachica
et al. 2019). On the other hand, vaccination, castration,
and IEC sessions did not have a significant impact
on decreasing the reported rabies cases in the city. As
documented by Diamante et al. (2021) – in their study
of minimizing IRCP operational cost while satisfying
the different targets set by the CVO for each of the IRCP
components, as well as its allocated budget – one factor
being considered could be that rabies control intervention
targets in Davao City’s districts have not been attained
due to the random spatio-temporal distribution of the
rabies cases and the uneven local government program
distribution in the city (Montajes et al. 2021).
Thus, in this regard, a modified SEIV (susceptible-
exposed-infectious-vaccinated) model was formulated
to understand the transmission dynamics of rabies and to
determine how much effort for each control strategy (e.g.
mass vaccination of dogs, impounding, and castration)
should be done in the selected three administrative districts
of Davao City, in support to the local government’s goal
to obtain a zero-rabies incidence.
The SEIV model as a baseline framework in this study
is represented by population compartments – namely,
susceptible dogs (𝑆), exposed dogs (𝐸), infectious dogs
(𝐼), and vaccinated dogs (𝑉). Additionally, this study added
compartments specifically for examined dog samples that
are negative for rabies (�₀), reported dog samples suspected
to be infectious that are subject to examination by CVO
(�₁), and examined dog samples that are positive for rabies
(�₂). The model was formulated as a system of ordinary
differential equations (ODEs) to capture the rates of change
in each population with respect to time �. Through this, the
model will give us an understanding of how each control
strategy is being implemented in each district and which
control strategy to intensify.
Among the 11 administrative districts of Davao City,
this paper focused only on the three districts with the
highest number of positive rabies cases in Davao City –
namely, Talomo, Buhangin, and Poblacion districts – from
2006–2020. Furthermore, the study focused on the three
control strategies that were conducted by CVO: [1] mass
vaccination of dogs, which has been demonstrated to be
the most effective and inexpensive approach for rabies
control (Lachica et al. 2019), and that which Davao City
has been been implementing for a long time, wherein
vaccines are distributed through a central station such
as barangay center or through house-to-house visitation
(Lachica et al. 2019); [2] castration of dogs, which is a
humane approach for dog population control and reducing
Philippine Journal of Science Rosero et al.: Rabies Transmission Dynamics
Vol. 151 No. 5, October 2022 and Control in Davao City

animal rabies transmission (Taylor et al. 2017; Lachica Model Formulation

et al. 2019); and [3] impounding of dogs, wherein free-
roaming dogs are captured and euthanized when not
claimed within the specific time (Lachica et al. 2019),
specifically targets to reduce the stray dog population
(Taylor et al. 2017), and a program that was launched in
the city in December 2012 (Lachica et al. 2019).
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Data
The first set of data is the cumulative monthly positive
rabies samples in Davao City from 2006–2020. It was
used to test if the model would fit the larger population.
If the model fits the larger population, then it would mean
that the model can be an accurate representation of the
smaller population. With this, the same fitting procedure
was used to fit the model to the second set of data, which
was the cumulative monthly positive rabies samples of the
three major districts with the highest number of positive
rabies cases among all the administrative districts in
Davao City – namely, Talomo, Buhangin, and Poblacion
districts – from 2006–2020 collected from CVO, as shown
in Figure 2.
The epidemiological model that was formulated in this
paper was an extended version of the SEIV compartmental
model. The model is composed of seven population
compartments – namely, susceptible dogs (𝑆), exposed
dogs (𝐸), examined dog samples that are negative of rabies
(�₀), reported dog samples suspected to be infectious that
are subject to examination by CVO (�₁), examined dog
samples that are rabies positive (�₂), infectious dogs (𝐼),
and vaccinated dogs (𝑉). The schematic diagram of the
model is shown in Figure 1 and formulated by a system
of ODEs in Equations 1–7.
In formulating the model, it has been observed that the
reported dogs to CVO may either be positive or negative
for rabies, and that exposed dogs can either recover or
become infectious. The total host population size is 𝑁(�)
= 𝑆(�) + 𝐸(�) + 𝐼(�) + 𝑉(�). The model was based on
the following assumptions:
1. The populations are well-mixed.
2. All the members of the dog population interact with
each other, and all susceptible dogs interact with
infectious dogs the same number of times.
3. Vaccinated dogs become susceptible to rabies again
when they lose immunity against the rabies virus at
a rate 𝜆.

Figure 1. Schematic diagram of the rabies transmission in Davao City. The circles represent the population
compartments of susceptible, exposed, infected, vaccinated, reported to CVO, as well as rabies-
negative and positive individuals. The bold pointed solid lines represent the transfer of individuals
to another compartment due to infection, report, and examination or vaccination. The shorter pointed
solid lines represent birth, deaths (natural and disease-related), and loss of immunity of vaccinated
individuals.

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Figure 2. Graph of yearly positive dog rabies cases in the three administrative districts of Davao City from 2006–2021.

4. Susceptible and exposed dogs become vaccinated
when they receive anti-rabies vaccines at a rate 𝑐₁.
5. Susceptible, exposed, infectious, and vaccinated dogs
are reported (�₁) to CVO at reporting rates �𝑆,�𝐸, �𝐼
, and �𝑉, respectively.
6. The examination rate of dogs reported to CVO is 𝑝,
and the proportion of total samples that are examined
to be positive for rabies is 𝑎. Thus, 𝑝𝑎�₁ represents
the rate of examining reported dogs that are positive
for rabies (�₂), whereas (1 − 𝑎)𝑝�₁ denotes the
rate of examining reported dogs that are negative for
rabies �₀.
7. Exposed dogs can develop clinical rabies at a specific
time since they go through an incubation period of − 1
�.
8. The dog birth rate (𝛬) and natural and disease-induced
death rates (𝑚 and �, respectively) are constants.
Susceptible, exposed, and vaccinated dogs die at a
rate 𝑚, and some of these dogs are impounded at a
rate 𝑐₃. Infectious dogs, on the other hand, die at a
rate � and some of these dogs are impounded at a rate
𝑐₃. Additionally, the population growth rate is logistic
since the growth rate of the dog population is assumed
to be suppressed by the castration of susceptible dogs
at a rate 𝑐₂.
9. Susceptible dogs become exposed dogs via the
transmission of the rabies virus, which is assumed
to take place through interaction via direct contact
between susceptible and infectious dogs with a
transmission rate 𝛽.
10. Reported dogs (�₁) that are determined to be either
negative of rabies �₀ or positive for rabies (�₂) are
considered disposed since tests can only be performed
after euthanizing the dog and removing its head for
the examination of the brain.
The rate of transfer from one population compartment to
another and the interactions of the dynamic variables with
the parameters are described in the schematic diagram
shown in Figure 1.
The model, which explains the dynamics of the
population compartments over time, is derived from
the schematic diagram in Figure 1 by adding the inflow
rate and subtracting the outflow rate connected to each
compartment. The rate of change for each compartment
is specified by a system of ODEs:
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)

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Model Parameterization Table 2. Initial values of the variables.

The parameters used in the model along with their
Variable Description Values
corresponding values are presented in Table 1. In the table,
𝛬, 𝛽, 𝑎, 𝑐₁, 𝑐₂, 𝑐₃, 𝑝, �𝑆, �𝐸, �𝐼, and �𝑉 have no known Initial population of susceptible
𝑆(�0) 11,700
dogs
values, so their values were estimated using cumulative
monthly rabies-positive cases from 2006–2020. For 𝐸(�0) Initial population of exposed dogs 6,700
the initial conditions, pre-determined values of other �₀(�0)
Initial population of examined
7
parameters 𝑚, �, and � were based from the study of Zhang dogs that are negative of rabies
et al. (2011), and the values of the variables were estimated �₁(�0)
Initial population of dogs reported
10
to CVO
based on CVO data as summarized in Table 2.
Initial population of examined
�₂(�0) 3
In January 2006, 10 samples of suspected cases were dogs that are rabies positive
submitted to CVO, and three dogs were positive for Initial population of infectious
𝐼(�0) 3
rabies. So, at t0 = January2006, the variables �₀, �₁, and dogs
�₂ are initially set as the following: �₀(�0) = 7, �₁(�0) Initial population of recovered
𝑉(�0) 5,000
= 10, and �₂(�0) = 3. Since the initial population of dogs
infectious dogs has no known value, we assumed that it
is at least equal to the positive cases examined in CVO
(�₂) because, as assumed, the majority of the infectious
dogs reported to CVO at a rate �𝐼 are tested to be rabies dogs 𝑆(�0). The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA)
positive. Consequently, we used 𝐼(�0) = �₂(�0) = 3. recorded that Davao City had a population of 1,449,000
in 2010 (PSA 2016). With this, the population in Davao
On the other hand, the initial population of susceptible City was projected to be at 1,300,000 in 2006, whereby
dogs is unknown. Hence, the human population of Davao the population grew by 2.37% annually during the period
City was used to estimate the initial number of susceptible from 2000–2010 (PSA 2018). Since the average observed

Table 1. Definition of the parameters in the modeling framework.

Parameter Value Unit Description Source
𝛬 0.12500 − 0.177 mo⁻1 Average monthly dog birth rate To be estimated

𝑚 1 mo⁻1 Zhang et al. (2011)

Per capita natural mortality rate
84

𝛽 0.16 x 10⁻⁸ − 1.8 x 10⁻⁸ mo⁻1 Direct transmission rate To be estimated

�𝑆 0.10000 − 0.500 mo⁻1 Reporting rate of susceptible dogs To be estimated

�𝐸 0.10000 − 0.500 mo⁻1 Reporting rate of exposed dogs To be estimated

�𝐼 0.10000 − 0.500 mo⁻1 Reporting rate of infectious dogs To be estimated

�𝑉 0.10000 − 0.500 mo⁻1 Reporting rate of vaccinated dogs To be estimated

𝑎 0−1 Proportion of total examined sam-

To be estimated
ples that are positive of rabies
𝑝 0−1 mo⁻1 Average examination rate To be estimated

� 1 mo⁻1 Zhang et al. (2011)

Disease-induced mortality rate
12

1 2 mo Reciprocal of incubation period Zhang et al. (2011)

𝜎

𝑐₁ 0.005 − 0.250 mo⁻1 Average vaccination rate To be estimated

𝑐₂ 0.005 − 0.1 mo⁻1 Average castration rate To be estimated

𝑐₃ 0.00025 − 0.05 mo⁻1 Average impounding rate To be estimated

� 1 mo⁻1 Rate of loss of immunity Zhang et al. (2011)

24

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Philippine Journal of Science
Vol. 151 No. 5, October 2022
dog-to-human ratio is 1:10 (Gsell et al. 2012; Otolorin et
al. 2014) and the time scale is in the order of months, it
implies that the dog population is around 130,000. The
study performed a trial-and-error simulation to find the
initial values of the variables that would represent the
actual trend of dog rabies cases in Davao City (Zhang
et al. 2011). The dog population in Davao City was
used to estimate the district’s dog population, assuming
that the districts have an equal dog population number
and that dogs are heavily distributed among districts.
Among the obtained sets of initial values, the initial
value of susceptible dogs was estimated to be 𝑆(�0) =
11,700. Furthermore, approximately 40% was assumed
for the number of vaccinated dogs 𝑉(�0), which is 5,000,
following the official record of CVO on the number of
vaccinated dogs that started in 2011. The remaining 60%
of the susceptible dog population becomes exposed dogs
𝐸(�0) – accumulating for 6,700.
Model Fitting
This study was implemented using MATLAB. For model
fitting, the least squares approach was used where solution
curves were fitted through the data such that the sum of
squared errors (SSE) is as small as possible. In this paper,
the MATLAB routine ode15s, which is an ODE solver
that simultaneously implements an explicit fourth and
fifth order Runge-Kutta, was used to solve the ODEs.
The fminsearch() function specified by 𝑓(𝑥), where 𝑓(𝑥)
is a function that returns a scalar, and 𝑥 is a vector or a
matrix, is a minimization routine that finds a value that
minimizes the function and is used to get the minimum
SSE between the fitted model and the dataset from various
initializations.
In this study, the model was fitted to the first set of data by
first estimating the 11 parameters – namely, 𝛬, 𝛽, 𝑎, 𝑐₁, 𝑐₂,
𝑐₃, 𝑝, �𝑆, �𝐸, �𝐼, and �𝑉 – while holding other parameters
𝑚, �, and � plus the initial conditions fixed as displayed
in Tables 1 and 2, respectively. Initial settings for unknown
parameters that were used to fit the data sets were done
by considering realistic values (or educated guesses).
The fitting procedure is done for 30 runs, wherein each
run should yield positive parameter estimates. This
procedure is more like trial and error, wherein the best
fit is identified by some criteria, i.e. the graph of the fit
should be relatively close to the data points and the SSE
should be as small as possible. After testing the model on
the first set of data, the same fitting procedure was used
for each of the chosen districts with their respective data.
Sensitivity Analysis (SA)
SA is a technique for quantifying uncertainty in any form
of a complex model. The goal of SA is to identify critical
model inputs (parameters and initial conditions) and
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Rosero et al.: Rabies Transmission Dynamics
and Control in Davao City
quantitatively evaluate the impact of input uncertainty
on model outcomes (Marino et al. 2008).
The SA was performed to examine the response of the
state variable �₂, i.e. the reported number of positive
rabies cases, to parameter variation – as recommended
by Turner et al. (2021) and Marino et al. (2008). Since
the dynamic system (1–7) is nonlinear with unknown
monotonic relationships between outputs and parameters,
this study utilized the Latin hypercube sampling–partial
rank correlation coefficient (LHS-PRCC) SA (Marino et
al. 2008; Turner et al. 2021).
Due to its accuracy and adaptability, LHS is a preferred
choice among sampling techniques used for uncertainty
analysis in systems biology. LHS ensures that the entire
parameter space is represented, i.e. that the range of
each parameter is fully stratified (Marino et al. 2008;
Renardy et al. 2021). On the other hand, PRCC is a robust
sensitivity measure for nonlinear including monotonic
relationships between parameters and output(s), so long
as there is little to no correlation between the parameters
(Renardy et al. 2021). By the combination of LHS and
PRCC techniques, this study can quantitatively assess the
sensitivity of our outcome variable to parameter variation.
The parameter values used for the SA were either derived
as means of parameter ranges obtained from parameter
estimation or were taken from literature. Parameter ranges
were constructed to reflect a 10% variation in the data
(Turner et al. 2021), and the parameters were assumed
to be random variables with uniform distributions. The
SA was run against �₂ in order to highlight the effect
of parameter values on the reported number of rabies-
positive cases in Davao City. The analysis was performed
using the Matlab R2022a solver ode15s over 10,000
runs following the approach by Renardy et al. (2021) in
reducing variability in dealing with stochastic data.
The parameters with a large magnitude of PRCC values
(|PRCC| > 0.5) that have corresponding small p-values
(0.05) were considered statistically significant (Turner et
al. 2021; Gomero 2012). The closer the magnitude of the
PRCC value is to 1 , the more strongly the LHS parameter
influences the outcome measure. The sign of the PRCC
value indicates the qualitative relationship between the
input variable and the output variables. A negative sign
indicates that the LHS parameter is inversely proportional
to the outcome measure. Criteria were set in identifying the
influence and correlation of the parameters to the output
specified in Table 3 (Chan et al. 2003; Gomero 2012).
Model Validation
In order to validate the model, we simulated the model
beyond the aforementioned fitting period. Specifically,
the model solution that was fitted using January 2006–
Philippine Journal of Science
Vol. 151 No. 5, October 2022
Table 3. Classifications on PRCC values [lifted from Chan et al. (2003) and Gomero (2012)].
PRCC values Level of contribution
0.5 to 0.69 or -0.5 to -0.69 Possible contributors
0.7 to 0.79 or -0.7 to -0.79 Very likely contributors to uncertainty
0.8 to 0.99 or -0.8 to -0.99 Highly likely contributors to uncertainty
December 2020 cumulative monthly rabies positive
samples was extended until December 2021 using the
monthly dog rabies-positive samples. Goodness-of-fit
measures were then done by computing the SSE, sum of
absolute errors (SAE), signed error, and the root mean
squared error (RMSE) between the actual data and the
predicted data. We conclude that the model is valid when
the RMSE is low (Ligue and Ligue 2022). Furthermore,
an error variation of 10% of RMSE was considered to
validate the model (Anderson et al. 2015).
To deal with parameter uncertainty, the bootstrapping
method was done by resampling the model solution 1,000
times following Poisson distribution to generate new
datasets, with which parameter estimation was applied.
The new model solutions were then extended, plotting
the region within a 95% confidence interval. MATLAB
routine ode45 was used to solve resampled datasets.
Scenario analysis was done by adjusting the significantly
sensitive model parameters according to the results from
the SA to see how a set of control interventions affect the
monthly rabies cases.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
In this study, we aimed to describe the transmission
dynamics of rabies in three major districts in Davao City
– namely, Talomo, Buhangin, and Poblacion districts –
by formulating an epidemiological model with control
strategies implemented by the CVO following an SEIV
framework. First, we observed the trends of the cumulative
monthly rabies cases between 2006–2020 from the said
districts in Davao City. Based on the collected data from
CVO, these districts displayed the highest rabies incidence
among the 11 administrative districts in the city, as shown
in Figure 2.
We now present the estimated values for the extent of
rabies control strategies and other parameters applied in
each of the three major districts in Table 4.
Parameters Estimates of the Intervention Efforts
Vaccination rate (𝑐₁). As the number of rabies cases
increases, one of the recommendations is to focus on mass
Rosero et al.: Rabies Transmission Dynamics
and Control in Davao City
Strength of correlation
Weak correlation
Moderate correlation
Strong correlation
dog vaccination, which is considered the most feasible and
cost-effective strategy in controlling the disease spread
(Collinson et al. 2020), covering a minimum threshold of
70% across dog population (Lachica et al. 2019).
It was found that – on average, among the three districts –
Buhangin district had the highest vaccination rate, wherein
the CVO has vaccinated approximately 25% of the dog
population per month. This is followed by the Talomo
district (13% of the dog population are being vaccinated
per month) and then by the Poblacion district (10% of the
dog population are being vaccinated per month).
A study by Montajes et al. (2021) mentioned that the
Buhangin district consistently had the highest number
of rabies cases, which prompted the CVO to focus on
administering vaccines in this region almost every year.
The study also reported that, although vaccination is
consistently being implemented in the Buhangin district,
there are still areas in the district that remain to have a
high number of rabies cases.
Castration rate (𝑐₂). Castration of dogs theoretically
stabilizes dog populations by reducing birth rates and can
be a supplementary measure to vaccination (Collinson et
al. 2020), allowing vaccination coverage to be maintained
easily (Taylor et al. 2017).
Observe that – on average, among the three districts –
the Poblacion district had the highest castration rate,
wherein approximately 1.3% of the dog population
are being castrated every month. It is followed by the
Buhangin district, where approximately 0.8% of the
dog population is being castrated every month; and the
Talomo district with the lowest castration rate, wherein
approximately 0.6% of the dog population is being
castrated every month.
Observe that the castration rates among the three districts
are relatively close to each other given the small differences.
This supports the results from the study by Montajes et
al. (2021) that the castration program in Davao City was
randomly distributed throughout the years, focusing on the
districts with the highest rabies incidence.
However, these estimates showed that the implementation
of this intervention strategy is not prioritized in the three
districts. In a study by Lachica et al. (2019), the castration
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Vol. 151 No. 5, October 2022 and Control in Davao City

program appears to be challenging due to identified
factors such as poor public awareness or the technical and
financial demands expected in executing this program.
Impounding rate (𝑐₃). When free-roaming dogs are not
claimed within a specific time, they are captured and
euthanized (Lachica et al. 2019). This control method being
implemented by CVO is called impounding.
Results showed that – on average, among the three districts
– Poblacion district had the highest impounding rate,
wherein approximately 1.3% of the dog population are
being impounded every month. It is followed by Talomo
district, where approximately 1.27% of the dog population
are being impounded every month; and Buhangin district
with the lowest impounding rate, wherein approximately
0.02% of the dog population are being impounded every
month.
With a disparity of approximately 65 times, the
implementation of dog impounding in Talomo and
Poblacion districts is incomparable to that of the Buhangin
district. As documented by Lachica et al. (2019),
impounding of dogs was found to have significantly
contributed to reducing the number of reported rabies
cases.
Other parameters. The model also considered other
parameters that contributed to the spread of rabies in
Davao City such as the dog birth rate (𝛬), transmission
rate (𝛽), positivity rate of rabies (𝑝𝑎), and reporting rate
(𝛾). As indicated in Table 4, the following sections will
discuss the estimated parameter values and its implication
for rabies transmission.
Dog birth rate (𝛬). According to Rattanavipapong
et al. (2019), dog birth rate was one of the identified
critical factors influencing the effectiveness of rabies
control interventions. Hence, the study assessed the
dog birth rate of the three districts shown in Table 4.
Buhangin district had the highest per capita dog birth rate
compared to Talomo and Poblacion districts. On average,
approximately 47% of the population will be added to the
Buhangin district every month, approximately 35% of
the population will be added to the Talomo district every
month, and 19% of the population will be added to the
Poblacion district every month.
Buhangin district, as one of the districts with the low
implementation of the castration program, explains having
the highest number of entering the population. Although
castration was not found to have an impact on rabies cases
in Davao City (Lachica et al. 2019), this control program
should still be implemented accordingly with respect to its
population size to minimize the close dog interaction that
could potentially increase the spread of rabies.
The quantification of the birth rate in this study showed
the strength of the SEIV model. The model was able to
give us an idea of the dog population dynamics in each
district, as there was no recorded data available.
Transmission rate (𝛽). The dog population is one of
the key factors that drive rabies transmission (Morters
et al. 2013), which prompted this study to measure
the transmission rate in the three districts. On average,
transmission rates in the three districts have a relatively
minimal difference of 10⁻⁸ in magnitude, in which
approximately 1–2 dogs will be infectious per one

Table 4. Initial and estimated parameter values to the fits of the rabies-positive cases in the three districts.
Buhangin District Poblacion District Talomo District
Parameters
Initial values Estimated values Initial values Estimated values Initial values Estimated values

𝛬 3.600 x 10⁻¹ 4.729 x 10⁻¹ 3.600 x 10⁻¹ 1.859 x 10⁻¹ 3.600 x 10⁻¹ 3.456 x 10⁻¹

𝛽 1.150 x 10⁻⁸ 1.173 x 10⁻⁸ 1.621 x 10⁻⁸ 1.847 x 10⁻⁸ 1.621 x 10⁻⁸ 2.450 x 10⁻⁸

𝑎 4.018 x 10⁻⁵ 2.392 x 10⁻⁶ 4.018 x 10⁻⁵ 4.316 x 10⁻⁶ 4.018 x 10⁻⁵ 3.134 x 10⁻⁶

𝑐₁ 1.460 x 10⁻1 2.492 x 10⁻1 1.460 x 10⁻1 1.016 x 10⁻1 1.500 x 10⁻1 1.348 x 10⁻1

𝑐₂ 1.000 x 10⁻² 8.469 x 10⁻³ 1.000 x 10⁻² 1.276 x 10⁻² 1.000 x 10⁻² 6.251 x 10⁻³

𝑐₃ 1.500 x 10⁻² 2.131 x 10⁻⁴ 1.500 x 10⁻² 1.296 x 10⁻² 1.500 x 10⁻² 1.264 x 10⁻²

𝑝 5.100 x 10⁻² 4.253 x 10⁻² 5.100 x 10⁻² 7.322 x 10⁻² 5.100 x 10⁻² 7.637 x 10⁻²

�𝑆 1.750 x 10⁻1 2.133 x 10⁻1 1.650 x 10⁻1 5.930 x 10⁻² 1.650 x 10⁻1 1.904 x 10⁻1

�𝐸 5.740 x 10⁻1 6.359 x 10⁻1 5.740 x 10⁻1 7.455 x 10⁻1 5.740 x 10⁻1 8.894 x 10⁻1

�𝐼 6.820 x 10⁻1 7.721 x 10⁻1 6.820 x 10⁻1 7.363 x 10⁻1 6.820 x 10⁻1 6.966 x 10⁻1

�𝑉 1.131 x 10⁻⁰ 1.914 x 10⁻⁰ 1.131 x 10⁻⁰ 2.088 x 10⁻⁰ 1.131 x 10⁻⁰ 8.554 x 10⁻1

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Vol. 151 No. 5, October 2022
hundred million susceptible dogs every month. From the
transmission scenario observed, rabies in three districts
was still less likely to impose a public health threat,
revealing that rabies remains endemic (Amparo et al.
2018) in Davao City. However, it is still important to note
that rabies is 100% fatal once an individual is infected
(Evangelio et al. 2020). Furthermore, observe that the very
small magnitude of the difference among the transmission
rates implies similar dynamics of rabies transmission
in the three districts. Note, however, that the extent
to which control interventions are being implemented
varies by district, as observed in the difference in the
reported positive rabies cases among the three districts.
This suggests the CVO to revisit the implementation of
interventions and re-strategize its system to achieve its
goal of a rabies-free city by 2030.
Positivity rate of rabies (𝑝𝑎). It was found that the
Poblacion district had the highest positivity rate, wherein
3 dogs tested positive for every 100,000 examined dogs
from this district. This is followed by Talomo district (2
dogs tested positive per 100,000 examined dogs) and
then Buhangin district (1 dog tested positive per 100,000
examined dogs).
Reporting rate (𝛾). In the model, the reporting rate was
categorized according to four dog states. Reporting rate
of susceptible dogs was denoted as �𝑆, reporting rate
of exposed dogs was denoted as �𝐸, reporting rate of
infectious dogs was denoted as �𝐼, and reporting rate of
vaccinated dogs was denoted as �𝑉.
In reporting susceptible dogs, the Buhangin district had
the highest reporting rate, wherein it is expected to report
one susceptible dog at CVO approximately every 4 mo
and 20 d. It is followed by the Talomo district, where one
susceptible dog is reported at CVO approximately every
5 mo and 8 d. The Poblacion district, with the lowest
reporting rate, is expected to have 1 susceptible dog at
CVO approximately every 16 mo and 26 d. The slow rate
of reporting susceptible dogs might be affected by some
factors such as the misleading combination of signs or
behavioral abnormalities exhibited by susceptible dogs
that avert the suspicion of being infected by rabies,
unknown exposure to rabid dogs, and sudden death
(White et al. 2007).
In reporting exposed dogs, Talomo district had the highest
reporting rate where it is expected to report 1 exposed dog
at CVO approximately every 1 mo and 4 d. A relatively
small difference, Poblacion district expected to report
1 exposed dog at CVO in approximately every 1 mo
and 10 d. Lastly, the Buhangin district had the lowest
reporting rate, wherein in approximately 1 mo and 17 d,
1 exposed dog will be reported at CVO. The high rate of
reporting exposed dogs could be attributed to exposed
Rosero et al.: Rabies Transmission Dynamics
and Control in Davao City
dogs’ potential to pose a threat to other dogs they come
into contact with (Stull et al. 2016), regardless of whether
they have rabies symptoms or are vaccinated.
In reporting infectious dogs on a monthly basis, the
Buhangin district had the highest reporting rate where
it is expected to report one infectious dog at CVO
approximately every 1 mo and 9 d. Followed by Poblacion
district, where one infectious dog will be reported at
CVO approximately every 1 mo and 11 d. Lastly, with
a relatively small difference, the Talomo district had the
lowest reporting rate where one infectious dog will be
reported at CVO approximately every 1 mo and 13 d. The
rates of reporting infectious dogs in three districts show
a faster rate compared to the rates of reporting exposed
dogs, which is consistent with how there is an urgency
for humans to report infected dogs since rabid dogs show
symptoms and could also infect the other dogs (Stull et
al. 2016), as well as to receive appropriate medication.
In reporting vaccinated dogs, the Poblacion district
had the highest reporting rate, wherein it is expected
to report 1 vaccinated dog at CVO approximately
every 14 d. This was followed by the Buhangin district
with a relatively small-time difference, wherein in
approximately every 15 d, 1 vaccinated dog will be
reported at CVO. Lastly, Talomo district had the
lowest reporting rate, wherein it is expected that in
approximately every 1 mo and 5 d, 1 vaccinated dog
will be reported at CVO. Dogs in contact with other
dogs are being isolated for 14 d to prevent their ability
to infect others if found positive for rabies. Reporting
of vaccinated dogs might be due to staying healthy
in a 10-d observation (WHO 2018b); however, these
dogs exhibit rabies symptoms after being released, or
vaccinated dogs have lost immunity from vaccination.
Considering exposed and infectious dogs are more likely to
infect other dogs, the urgency to examine reported exposed
and infectious dogs is higher among other state conditions,
which corresponds to the highest examination rate in the
Talomo district followed by the Poblacion district that was
reported to have the highest number of examined rabies-
positive cases. The conduct of examination is crucial
for this instance, in order to determine the appropriate
intervention that should be administered by CVO to the
affected dogs in order to reduce the risk of infection. The
implementation of an IRCP in a form of vaccination by
CVO had led to the Buhangin district having the lowest
rabies cases in the three districts. Moreover, despite the
low risk of infection from the susceptible and vaccinated
dogs, they should still be reported and examined because
they are likely to acquire rabies, even without experiencing
early symptoms (incubation period), which led to the
Talomo and Poblacion districts recording higher numbers
of rabies cases compared to Buhangin district.
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Vol. 151 No. 5, October 2022
Figure 3. (a) Fit of the cumulative monthly dog rabies-positive cases in three districts using the monthly reported dog rabies-positive cases
from January 2006–December 2020. Red dots indicate the actual data, whereas the dark-blue line indicates the model fit. (b) 2021
projection on the new reported dog rabies-positive cases in three districts indicated in the solid blue line, with a 95% confidence
interval indicated in broken blue lines.
Figure 3a shows the model fit (dark-blue line curve) with
respect to the cumulative monthly positive rabies cases
(red dots) of the Talomo, Buhangin, and Poblacion districts
using the estimated parameters in Table 4.
Sensitivity Analysis (SA)
We performed LHS-PRCC SA to examine how the
parameter values affect the dynamics observed in the
system. In this analysis, we identified the set of sensitive
parameters in each district with respect to the number
of reported dog rabies-positive cases that could help
effectively control rabies transmission by implementing
interventions and policies that affect these parameters. Table
5 and the bar graphs in Figure 4 show the list of the model
parameters and the corresponding PRCC and p-values for
each parameter related to the outcome variable, �₂.
The results showed that for all three districts, the parameters
𝛬 (birth rate), 𝑐₁ (vaccination rate), and �𝑆 (reporting rate
of susceptible dogs) are consistently significant and are
the most sensitive contributors to �₂ (|PRCCvalues|>
0.5, p-values < 0. 0 5). The strong positive influence of 𝛬
implies that the increase in dog birth rate in the city would
most likely increase the reported dog rabies-positive cases,
whereas the negative strong influence of 𝑐₁ and �𝑆 imply
that the increase in the number of dogs being vaccinated and
susceptible dogs being reported to CVO for examination
1838
Rosero et al.: Rabies Transmission Dynamics
and Control in Davao City
could potentially decrease the number of reported dog-
rabies positives in the city.
The PRCC results in each district are consistent with the
biological scenario of rabies transmission and control in
Davao City. For instance, the increase in birth rate would
be more likely to increase the rabies cases where more
interaction is expected among dogs due to its increasing
population; the increase in vaccination would be more
likely to decrease the rabies cases, as vaccines are capable
of protecting susceptible dogs from getting infected; and
the increase in reporting susceptible dogs to CVO would
be more likely to decrease the rabies cases, which acts
as a preventive measure against rabies infection through
an early consultation or examination. The high influence
of the vaccination rate in the model in mitigating rabies
transmission also aligns with the CVO’s ongoing mass
canine rabies vaccination campaign in the city as a method
of rabies control.
Model Validation
Figure 3b shows the extended graph of the model fit
into 2021 with respect to monthly positive rabies cases
in the Talomo, Buhangin, and Poblacion districts. The
goodness-of-fit metrics are also shown in Table 6.
From the metrics, the model fit of the three districts
underestimated the monthly rabies samples in 2021.
While this is an indication that interventions being
Philippine Journal of Science Rosero et al.: Rabies Transmission Dynamics
Vol. 151 No. 5, October 2022 and Control in Davao City

Figure 4. Bar graphs showing the PRCC values for Y2 over the 10% parameter ranges with their corresponding p-values in three districts.

Table 5. PRCC ranks for parameter ranges in three districts.

Buhangin District Poblacion District Talomo District
Parameters
PRCC p-value PRCC p-value PRCC p-value
𝛬 0.9861 0.0000a 0.9883 0.0000a 0.9872 0.0000a
𝛽 0.0111 0.2663 0.0059 0.5534 0.0127 0.2061
𝑎 0.1258 0.0000a 0.1441 0.0000a 0.1311 0.0000a
𝑐₁ –0.9435 0.0000a –0.9554 0.0000a –0.9035 0.0000a
𝑐₂ –0.0417 0.0000a –0.0724 0.0000a –0.0304 0.0024
𝑐₃ 0.0156 0.1187 –0.3796 0.0000a –0.1941 0.0000a
𝑝 0.0027 0.7863 0.0009 0.9246 0.0009 0.9283
�𝑆 –0.9279 0.0000a –0.8847 0.0000a –0.9540 0.0000a
�𝐸 0.0032 0.7460 0.0033 0.7385 0.0057 0.5686
�𝐼 0.0080 0.4251 0.0054 0.5871 0.0121 0.2266
�𝑉 –0.0508 0.0000a –0.0526 0.0000a –0.0828 0.0000a
𝑚 0.0229 0.0218a 0.0242 0.0156 a 0.0229 0.0220a
� 0.0023 0.8191 0.0025 0.8028 –0.0041 0.6785
𝜎 0.0213 0.0330a 0.0186 0.0627 0.0196 0.0506
� 0.0053 0.5984 0.0031 0.7582 0.0083 0.4055
dummy 0.0063 0.5314 0.0018 0.8567 0.0078 0.4337
ap-value < 0.05 is significant at 5%

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Vol. 151 No. 5, October 2022 and Control in Davao City

Table 6. Measures on goodness-of-fit in three districts.

Types of Buhangin District Poblacion District Talomo District
error Train dataa Test datab Train data Test data Train data Test data
SSE 1805.8786 142.2410 646.2241 289.8563 10829.781 1137.2944
SAE 467.5433 41.5948 269.9813 61.2706 1224.3383 120.1739
SE 141.6201 41.5948 48.8739 61.2706 287.3022 120.1739
RMSE 3.1674 3.4429 1.8948 4.9147 7.7566 9.7352
aData from January 2006–December 2020; bdata from January 2021–December 2021.

Figure 5. The fit of the cumulative monthly dog rabies-positive cases in three districts using the monthly reported dog rabies-positive cases
from January 2006–December 2021 in three districts with sensitive parameter variation. (a) Red dots indicate the actual data, the
blue line indicates the model fit, and the broken red line indicates the model fit with the increased birth rate. (b) Red dots indicate
the actual data, the blue line indicates the model fit, and the broken yellow line indicates model fit with increased vaccination
rate. (c) Red dots indicate the actual data, the blue line indicates the model fit, and the broken green line indicates the model fit
with an increased reporting rate of susceptible dogs.

implemented by the local government prior to this
year were not likely sufficient to control the spread of
rabies in Davao City, the difference between the actual
cumulative rabies cases and the predicted rabies cases
is small (i.e. the magnitude of the difference is less
than 10¹), implying that our model is still capable of
predicting rabies-positive cases in the three districts.
Even more so, the predicted fit of the model will serve
as a baseline reference for the local government officials
in re-strategizing their current rabies control programs,
considering the results obtained in the SA that highlights
the sensitive model parameters in minimizing the number
of dog rabies-positive cases in Davao City.
Scenarios of the model fit were generated through
parameter variation (Turner et al. 2021) of birth rate (𝛬),
vaccination rate (𝑐₁), and reporting rate of susceptible
dogs to CVO (�𝑆) – parameters that were found to most
likely influence the variable outcomes of the model across
the three districts of Davao City, as shown in Figure
5. Observe how the increase in birth rate (𝛬) (0.002%
for Buhangin, 0.035% for Poblacion, and 0.009% for
Talomo), as well as a decrease in both vaccination rate
(𝑐₁) (0.004% for Buhangin, 0.007% for Poblacion, and
0.0015% for Talomo) and reporting rate of susceptible
dogs to CVO (�𝑆) (0.0025% for Buhangin, 0.0001%
for Poblacion and Talomo), resulted in a closer and
increased prediction of cumulative rabies cases in 2021

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Vol. 151 No. 5, October 2022
with respect to the actual cumulative cases as compared
to the model fit. The graphical visualization of the model
with parameter variations confirms the strong influence
of sensitive model parameters, which will help support
the decision-makers in crafting policies toward the fight
against the persisting rabies disease in the city.
Intervention Efforts in Three Districts
From the findings, the Talomo district had the highest
transmission rate and lowest castration rate. A high
transmission rate depicted in the Talomo district suggests
that CVO should intensify the implementation of control
strategies in this district, specifically in prioritizing
vaccination and impounding of dogs, as vaccination rate
showed to be a significantly strong contributor based on
SA, and that impounding has showed to be significant
(Montajes et al. 2021; Lachica et al. 2019) in mitigating
rabies transmission in the district (Montajes et al. 2021;
Lachica et al. 2020). Moreover, CVO should also
intensify the implementation of the castration program
in the area to slow down the birth rate, as rabies has
been documented to re-emerge in areas where the dog
population increases in urban areas (Knobel et al. 2005;
Montajes et al. 2021).
On the other hand, Poblacion had the lowest dog birth rate,
which is consistent with its castration and impounding
rates being the highest among the three districts. However,
the vaccination rate is the lowest in this district, which
is also consistent with its high transmission rate and its
positivity rate being the highest among the districts.
Hence, intensification of vaccination campaigns should be
highly prioritized in addition to its good implementation of
castration and impounding efforts to further reduce rabies
transmission (Taylor et al. 2017) in the district.
Finally, Buhangin had the highest vaccination rate and
the lowest transmission rate of rabies. The vaccination
campaigns implemented in this district satisfactorily
mitigate the transmission of rabies among other districts.
However, the district had the highest birth rate, which
could be due to the low castration rate and impounding rate
being the lowest among the three districts. This implies
that CVO should also intensify the implementation of
the castration and impounding programs (Taylor et al.
2017) because leaving these two unattended could be a
potential factor for the possible increase in the number of
rabies cases in the district (Knobel et al. 2005; Montajes
et al. 2021).
Rosero et al.: Rabies Transmission Dynamics
and Control in Davao City
CONCLUSION
Rabies remains to be endemic in the Philippines, and the
Davao CVO has been conducting an IRCP composed of
vaccination, castration, and impounding of dogs and IEC
sessions, following the national goal, to make Davao City
rabies-free by 2030.
A modified SEIV model was formulated to capture rabies
transmission dynamics in the three districts of Davao City.
The model contained a set of parameters and was fitted
to monthly rabies incidence in Davao City from 2006–
2020 to know the values of the parameters that would
approximate the data. The parameter estimates per district
allowed us to determine the rate at which control strategies
were administered for each district, as well as the monthly
birth rate and transmission rate. Such parameter estimates
would aid in understanding the factors that contributed to
the varying number of rabies cases among the districts.
SA was also performed to examine how the parameter
values affect the dynamics of the system, which helps in
identifying important control interventions that should be
prioritized in different districts.
As observed from the results, implementation of control
strategies varied across the districts due to the spatio-
temporal distribution of rabies cases in Davao City, as
supported by the study of Montajes et al. (2021). However,
while the intervention efforts administered by the local
government of Davao City, particularly in the three
districts with the highest rabies cases, have resulted in a
manageable number of infections in the city, the disease
still sustained its endemic status.
Through the model and data fitting approaches, this study
has provided information on the level of control measures
implemented in three districts given only time-series
data and can also be utilized to develop future rabies
epidemiological models in Davao City.
It has been observed that while the transmission rates
of the three districts are low and relatively similar, the
level of intervention efforts differs among the districts. In
Buhangin District, where the vaccination rate is highest,
the birth rate is also high as well, which shows that other
intervention efforts (i.e. castration and impounding)
should be also taken into consideration to decrease the
dog population in the district and, thus, help mitigate
canine rabies transmission. In both Poblacion and
Talomo districts, dog vaccination should be intensified to
further decrease the reported canine rabies cases. These
observations have been also recommended by a study by
Lachica et al. (2019), in which vaccination showed to be
a crucial contributor to mitigating rabies transmission in
Davao City.
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Vol. 151 No. 5, October 2022
It was also observed that the model underestimated the
rabies cases reported in 2021 across the three districts,
which implies that interventions implemented prior to
this time are not likely sufficient to control the persisting
number of dog rabies cases. With this observation, the
SA suggested that the vaccination program should be
prioritized among many interventions to be implemented
and intensified consistently among the three districts. In
addition, there is a need for CVO to strategically identify
districts and levels of rabies control interventions to
implement with respect to the epidemiological measures
estimated from their datasets.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This research was supported by the CHED DARE-TO
(Commission on Higher Education: Discovery Applied
Research and Extension for Trans/Inter-disciplinary
Opportunities) 2017 Research Grant through STOP
(Synoptic Study on Transmission and Optimum Control
to Prevent) Rabies and by the DOST-PCHRD (Department
of Science and Technology–Philippine Council for
Health Research Development) through RabCast (Rabies
Forecast) research programs. We also acknowledge the
Davao CVO for providing the data and their assistance
in data collection.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
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