PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023

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Executive
Summary
Singapore’s real estate market is a tapestry woven with various economic and policy threads,
each contributing to the overall picture. In 2023, the nation witnessed a noticeable slowdown
in economic growth, with GDP expanding by a modest 0.7%. This deceleration, set against a
backdrop of global challenges such as the US-China tensions and the Israel-Hamas conflict,
has had a direct impact on the real estate landscape.

Inflation has been a key player in this narrative. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)
expects the core inflation rate to average between 2.5% and 3.5% in 2024, a slight relief from
the 4% experienced in 2023. This projection is not without its caveats, as the MAS warns
of potential escalations due to global disruptions in food and energy, as well as unforeseen
wage pressures.

A significant factor influencing the real estate sector has been the high interest rate
environment, a consequence of the US Federal Reserve’s aggressive stance in combating
inflation. Singapore, being highly responsive to international economic conditions, felt the
ripple effects in the form of increased mortgage rates. However, there’s a glimmer of hope
on the horizon as the US is expected to loosen its monetary policy in 2024, potentially
leading to more favourable borrowing conditions in Singapore.

The domestic scene shows a promising trend in terms of household debt and income. The
reduction in overall household debt to its lowest level in over a decade, coupled with a robust
growth in the median monthly income of residents, paints a picture of financial stability and
prudence.

The government’s policies have been pivotal in shaping the real estate market. The
introduction of a new HDB classification framework, effective from the second half of 2024,
is a game-changer. This reclassification, designed to better reflect the development status of
various townships, aims to encourage the purchase of flats for long-term living rather than
short-term investment gains. This policy shift is expected to alter application patterns in BTO
sales and impact the resale market.

As we move into 2024, the Singapore real estate market stands at a crossroads, influenced
by global economic shifts and local policy changes. The market has shown resilience in the
face of rising interest rates and economic slowdown. However, the true test lies ahead, as it
navigates through the anticipated changes in US monetary policy and adapts to the evolving
housing landscape. The role of MAS in responding to these global and local dynamics will be
crucial in ensuring a stable and conducive environment for the real estate sector. In essence,
the market is characterised by cautious optimism, with a focus on long-term stability and
sustainability.
PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023

Contents
Foreword
Methodology

1.0 Macro
1.1 Slowing Economic Outlook Amid Growing Inflation
1.2 High Interest Rate Environment & Anticipated Rate Cuts
1.3 Changes in Government Policy – Potential Ripple Effects

2.0 Micro
2.1 Quarterly Growth in Residential Real Estate Segments
2.2 Quarterly Growth in Commercial Real Estate Segments
2.3 In Focus — Opportunity Spaces Based On Q3 Data

Caveats & Disclaimers

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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023

Foreword

Melvin Lim
CEO, Co-founder
of PropertyLimBrothers (PLB)

As we navigate through the intricate and ever-evolving real estate landscape of Singapore,
our commitment at PropertyLimBrothers to provide insightful and actionable intelligence
to our stakeholders remains steadfast. This report, meticulously crafted, sheds light on the
multifaceted dynamics of our market as we transition from 2023 into 2024, a period marked
by economic recalibrations and policy shifts.

The past year has undeniably been a period of economic moderation for Singapore, with
GDP growth slowing to a modest 0.7%. This deceleration, set against the global backdrop
of geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, has had a profound impact on our real
estate sector. Yet, in these challenges, we also find resilience and opportunities for growth
and adaptation.

Inflation and interest rates have been at the forefront of our market’s narrative. With the core
inflation rate expected to stabilise in the coming year, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore
(MAS) projecting a balanced approach to economic stewardship, we anticipate a period of
cautious optimism. The anticipated easing of US monetary policy in 2024 may also usher in
more favourable borrowing conditions, which could bode well for our real estate market.

“At PropertyLimBrothers, we believe that buyers and

sellers should have happiness in their households when
making property decisions more than anything else.
After all, behind every home is a family.”
PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023

A key highlight of this period is the remarkable reduction in overall household debt – a
testament to the financial prudence of Singaporeans. Coupled with a significant rise in
median monthly income, this trend speaks volumes about the stability and maturity of our
market participants.

The government’s introduction of a new HDB classification framework is a pivotal development,

marking a shift in how we view and engage with public housing. This reclassification aims
to balance the aspirations of homeowners with the broader goal of maintaining a stable and
sustainable housing market. It’s a move that aligns well with our ethos at PropertyLimBrothers
– where we view real estate not just as a transaction, but as a key part of life’s journey.

As we step into 2024, we are cognizant of the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
This report is designed to equip you with the knowledge and insights to navigate these times.
At PropertyLimBrothers, we remain committed to guiding our clients and partners through
these dynamic times with expertise, integrity, and a deep understanding of the nuances of
our market.

I hope you find this quarterly report, prepared by our Research and Editorial team, insightful
and useful. And thank you for placing your trust in us, we look forward to continuing this
journey together.

All the best, and take care.

Co-Founder and CEO,

PropertyLimBrothers
PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023

Methodology
The information presented in this report is primarily sourced from URA data, but
may also incorporate data from other sources such as Squarefoot, Edgeprop, S&P
Global, TradingEconomics, and Statista to complement it. In addition, we use data
from reputable banks and consulting firms’ corporate reports as well as economic
data from various government websites in Singapore, the United States, and other
countries, including data from Central Banks worldwide.

Our report focuses on significant global macroeconomic trends and examines how
they could impact Singapore’s real estate market, taking into account changes in
monetary policy and growth projections. We carefully consider both demand and
supply factors in Singapore’s property market and use a combination of macro and
micro conditions to provide an in-depth analysis. Based on our assessment, we offer
our perspective on the likely performance of the real estate market in the upcoming
quarters.

The micro analysis primarily focuses on examining price and volume movements within
the real estate market. To identify any disparities in the performance of various market
segments, we utilise a non-parametric subsampling method. We obtain performance
data from URA and then create sub-samples for analysis, which are divided based on
factors such as property type, size, location, and other characteristics. The approach
we use is mainly descriptive in nature, but we also incorporate some qualitative
analysis and comments on consumer sentiment and behaviour.

This Q3 report builds on the previous reports, which highlighted the potential impact
of the high interest rate environment and latest government intervention in the form
of ABSD cooling measures and Government Land Sales (GLS) supply on Singapore’s
real estate market.
PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023
Slowing Economic
Outlook Amid
Growing Inflation
In 2023, the pace of Singapore’s economic
growth has notably decelerated compared
to the robust annual GDP increase of 3.6%
witnessed in 2022. The decline in economic
growth has been primarily attributed to
a decrease in manufacturing output and
exports, due to weaker global demand for
goods exports.
However, amidst global challenges,
Singapore’s economic landscape showed
resilience, registering a modest growth of
0.7% from the third quarter of 2022 to the
same period in 2023. This growth occurred
against a complex backdrop marked by a
deceleration in China’s economic activities
and heightened tensions between major
global powers, specifically the US and China.
The recent Israel-Hamas conflict is also likely
to add layers of complexity to the already
uncertain global economic environment.
Moving into 2024, the global economic
landscape will likely grapple with significant
challenges, including a steeper deceleration
in China’s economy, enduring high inflation,
and more stringent financial environments.
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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023
In its latest forecast, the Monetary Authority
of Singapore (MAS) has projected that
Singapore’s core inflation rate, which
excludes costs related to accommodation
and private transport, is expected to average
between 2.5% and 3.5% in 2024. This
comes after 2023 closes with core inflation
averaging around 4%, and all-items headline
inflation reaching approximately 5%.
For the first quarter of 2024, MAS anticipates
a slight increase in core inflation. This uptick is
attributed to the planned Goods and Services
Tax (GST) hike effective from 1 January 2024,
Household debt-to-PDI in Singapore
Source courtesy
DOS, MAS estimates
The latest Financial Stability Review by the
MAS also indicated a continued reduction
in overall household debt for the eighth
consecutive quarter, reaching a level of 1.2
times the personal disposable income by the
third quarter of 2023. This figure is the lowest
coupled with rising costs in water, electricity,
and public transport. Despite this initial rise,
the overall trend for core inflation is expected
to gradually moderate throughout the year.
However, MAS cautions that there are still
risks of inflation escalating, particularly due
to potential global disruptions in food and
energy commodities, as well as unforeseen
increases in wage pressures. On the other
hand, a faster-than-expected slowdown
in global economic activity could lead to a
more rapid easing of inflation rates.
in over a decade. A key factor contributing to
this decline is the cautious stance adopted by
households regarding new loan commitments,
especially in the real estate sector, in the
context of escalating interest rates that have
been prevalent since the second half of 2022.
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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023
Another factor contributing to the decline in
overall household debt could also be attributed
to the increase in gross median monthly
income of full-time employed residents in
Singapore. According to data retrieved up to
1 Dec 2023, gross median monthly income
has grown by almost 14% since 2019.
The observed trend of low household debt
could signify a tempered interest in new
mortgages and housing loans. This trend
suggests a more stable property market
but also points to a potential slowdown in
property transactions, a pattern that has
become evident towards the end of this year
and throughout 2023. Furthermore, this could
lead to more sustainable property prices,
as it indicates buyers are not excessively
borrowing to finance property purchases,
thereby reducing the demand for housing
and possibly affecting property values.
Developers, noting households’ increased
reluctance to take on debt, might also reassess
their plans for future projects and property
launches. While low household debt is largely
seen as a positive sign, there is a concern that
excessively low levels could hinder economic
growth. Adequate borrowing is often vital
for economic expansion, particularly in the
real estate sector, where mortgage financing
plays a pivotal role in facilitating property
transactions.
These latest insights highlight Singapore’s
economic fortitude, marked by a notable
decrease in household debt. This reduction is
attributed to cautious financial practices in the
face of increasing interest rates, supported
by strong income growth. In the real estate
domain, which accounts for a substantial
part of household debt, there is evident
stability characterised by moderate growth in
loans and successful implementation of risk
management strategies. Although this trend
of low household debt indicates a healthier
property market, it’s important to remain
vigilant as overly low levels of borrowing could
potentially hinder economic development.
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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023

High Interest Rate Environment &

Anticipated Rate Cuts

Couldn’t find the chart from Infogram,

Lester to advise. thank you

In Q3 2023, the Federal Open Market
Committee (FOMC) continued to combat
soaring inflation with its aggressive stance
on monetary policy, a key aspect impacting
global economic trends including the real
estate sector in Singapore. During their July
meeting, the FOMC raised the federal funds
rate by 25 basis points (0.25%), bringing the
upper range of this rate to 5.50%.
This move marked the continuation of a
significant tightening cycle that began in
March 2022, with the Federal Reserve (Fed)
incrementally increasing interest rates by
a total of 5.25% – one of the most rapid
escalations in U.S. history.

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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023

FOMC Meeting Date Rate Change (bps) Federal Funds Rate

July 26, 2023 +25 5.25 to 5.50%

May 3, 2023 +25 5.00 to 5.25%

March 22, 2023 +25 4.75% to 5.00%

Feb 1, 2023 +25 4.50% to 4.75%

Dec 14, 2022 +50 4.25% to 4.50%

Nov 2, 2022 +75 3.75% to 4.00%

Sept 21, 2022 +75 3.00% to 3.25%

July 27, 2022 +75 2.25% to 2.50%

June 26, 2022 +75 1.50% to 1.75%

May 5, 2022 +50 0.75% to 1.00%

March 17, 2022 +25 0.25% to 0.50%

In their latest Summary of Economic
Projections (SEP), the FOMC revealed
expectations for one more rate hike within the
year, to be followed by a reduction in rates
by 50 basis points down to 5.1% in 2024.
Current market forecasts are in line with this
projection, estimating a 50% likelihood of a
further rate increase this year and anticipating
a 50 basis point cut in 2024.

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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023
For Singapore, these developments in U.S.
monetary policy could significantly influence
the real estate market. As a highly open
economy, Singapore’s financial and real
estate sectors are responsive to international
economic conditions.
The Fed’s rate hikes have led to higher
borrowing costs globally, including in
Singapore. This has resulted in increased
mortgage rates, impacting both property
buyers and investors.
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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023
The anticipated loosening of U.S. monetary
policy in 2024 might bring some relief,
potentially leading to more favourable
borrowing conditions in Singapore as well.
However, the interim period of high interest
rates could dampen real estate market activity,
with buyers and investors becoming more
cautious due to higher financing costs.
Therefore, it is crucial to assess how these global
monetary policies might shape the real estate
landscape in Singapore. Potential investors
and stakeholders in the Singapore property
market should be aware of these international
trends and their possible implications on local
real estate prices, mortgage rates, and overall
market sentiment. The responsiveness of the
Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to
these international monetary shifts will be
pivotal in maintaining a stable and conducive
environment for the real estate sector amidst
global economic fluctuations.
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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023

Changes in
Government Policy –
Potential Ripple Effects

In this segment, we discuss the recent changes in government policy – specifically the new
housing measures that will reshape the future of the real estate market in Singapore.

New HDB Classification Framework

During the National Day Rally 2023, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced a new HDB
classification framework that will be taking effect from the second half of 2024. According
to PM Lee, the current classification framework of mature and non-mature towns no longer
accurately categorises the various BTO projects across Singapore as many townships have
gotten much more developed over time. To replace this framework, the government will
be introducing a new category of flats – Plus model, which will accompany the Standard
model and the existing Prime model (also known as Prime Location Housing or PLH model).

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 PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023

New categories for BTO projects in Singapore

• Applicable to new projects starting in 2H 2024
• No changes to the treatment of existing flats

PLUS
STANDARD With effect from second
PRIME
Since Nov 2021
half of 2024

All locations Choicer locations Choicest and most

Majority of supply within regions central locations
(eg. near transport (eg. city centre and
nodes, town centres) surrounding towns)

Standard subsidies More subsidies Most subsidies

Standard restrictions: Tighter restrictions: Tightest restrictions:

• 5-year minimium • 10-year MOP, no whole
occupation period (MOP) flat rental
• Able to rent out whole flat • Subsidy recovery upon
after MOP resale
• No income ceiling on • Full BTO eligibility
resale conditions on resale*,
including income ceiling
(S$14k for couples, S$7k
for singles)
• 10-year MOP, no whole
flat rental
• Subsidy recovery upon
resale
• Full BTO eligibility
conditions on resale*,
including income ceiling
(S$14k for couples, S$7k
for singles)

*At least one applicant must be a Singaporean citizen. Private property owners must
wait 15 months from disposal of property to buy a non-subsidised resale flat.

Source courtesy
Ministry of National Development and Housing & Development Board,
Aug 20, 2023

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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023

This reclassification also serves to reframe
BTO flats as homes instead of investments,
part of the government’s efforts to ensure
that applicants applying for these flats are
purchasing them for their own long-term
stay rather than to flip it for profits. Since
the introduction of the PLH model in 2021,
demand for BTO projects in prime locations
such as Bukit Merah, Kallang/Whampoa,
and Queenstown, has been tapered.
However, BTO projects with strong locational
attributes that did not fall under the PLH
model continued seeing high demand. The
introduction of the Plus model allows HDB to
further taper the demand, mitigate the lottery
effect, and ensure a good social mix – while
keeping the system fair for all income groups.

Potential Ripple Effects

North/North-east
West Mostly Standard
Mostly Standard and some Plus East
and some Plus Mostly Standard
and some Plus

Central
Mostly Plus
and Prime

Applies to new projects launched after 2H2024,

no change to existing flats.

Source courtesy
Ministry of National Development

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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023

The first ripple effect that we might see is the
shift in application pattern in the BTO sales
exercises that happen four times a year.
When the new classification framework takes
effect in the second half of 2024, those with
the intention to flip their BTO flat for profit
will be further discouraged from applying for
Plus and Prime flats in choicer locations as
they will not risk the long waiting time of at
least 13 years (an average of 3 years for the
construction on top of the 10-year MOP).
Future BTO sales exercises could see more
applicants who have aspirations for asset
progression leaning towards Standard flats,
since they do not come with tight restrictions.
In fact, those who still harbour the dream
of owning more than one property will be
applying for Standard flats as they can be
fully rented out upon MOP.

PLH & Plus Flats Buyer’s Affordability in 2036

Loan Eligible Property Loan Eligible Property
Income (25 years, 3% Affordability (25 years, 4% bank Affordability
HDB stress test) based on HDB loan stress test) based on Bank loan

$10,000 $632,000 $790,000 $568,000 $757,000

$11,000 $695,000 $868,750 $625,000 $833,000

$12,000 $759,000 $948,750 $682,000 $909,000

$13,000 $822,000 $1,027,500 $738,000 $984,000

$14,000 $885,000 $1,106,250 $795,000 $1,060,000

Plus and Prime flats are set to hit the
resale market around 13 to 14 years later.
Calculations based on the $14,000 income
ceiling cap for these flats, considering the
current Mortgage Servicing Ratio (MSR)
and Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR),
indicate that buyers can afford flats priced at
approximately $1.1M with an HDB loan and
around $1M with a bank loan.
However, factoring in future inflation, it’s
anticipated that the buyer market for these
flats will be relatively small. Additionally,
there will be a subsidy clawback upon their
resale, suggesting that the cash returns could
be comparable to Standard flats, with the
primary difference being the resale period.

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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023
The updated policy framework strongly
advises homeowners to consider Plus and
Prime flats mainly for long-term living rather
than short-term investment. Those looking
to sell their flats shortly after meeting the
MOP for an upgrade should focus on
Standard flats or explore the resale market.
The retrospective nature of this
reclassification, affecting only projects
launching post-second half of 2024, means
existing projects with highly desirable
locational attributes like Central Weave
at Ang Mo Kio, won’t face these stringent
measures.
This exemption is expected to boost
demand for flats in such projects, especially
given their locations near amenities in
the town centre and an MRT station. The
government’s recent increase in grants
for resale flat buyers further enhances the
appeal of resale flats. In the short term, this
could lead to a spike in prices, particularly
for resale flats near MRT stations and town
centres, in response to increased demand.
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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023

Quarterly Growth
in Residential Real
Estate Segments

In this section, we examine residential real estate segments. This refers to resale HDBs,
ECs, Condominiums, Apartments, and Landed properties including Pure Landed and Strata
Landed. The percentage values refer to the quarter-on-quarter change in Total Transaction
Value (TTV), and the colour gradient of the boxes are based on the percentage change from
Q2 2023 to Q3 2023. The size of the boxes refers to the relative TTV to other segments,
which tells us which segments have the most ‘activity’ in terms of value being transacted. It is
also important to note that some districts are excluded from the heatmaps due to insufficient
data or low transaction volume.

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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023

Resale HDB

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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023
For the resale HDB subgroup, the mostly-
green heat map suggests that transaction
activity has picked up compared to the
previous quarter. Planning areas that
saw the highest growth in TTV from Q2
2023 to Q3 2023 include Bukit Timah
(+78%), Serangoon (+67%), and Jurong
East (+44%). The top 5 segments with
the highest transacted value remain to be
Punggol, Sengkang, Woodlands, Tampines,
and Yishun – with the transacted value of
Tampines surpassing that of Yishun’s this
quarter. Jurong West and Bukit Merah also
saw a significant growth in TTV, recording
a growth rate of 28% and 21% respectively.
Punggol and Sengkang continue to be
the segments with the highest transaction
activity, coming in with just over 1,000
transactions combined. It is worth noting
that both segments experienced a dip in
TTV from the previous quarter, but strong
performances from Hougang (+12%) and
Serangoon (+67%) indicate a healthy growth
and appreciation potential in District 19 as a
whole, especially as we move towards the
completion of the Punggol Digital District
in 2026.
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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023
Executive Condominium
In the Executive Condominium (EC)
subgroup, the quarterly growth numbers
based on TTV predominantly point to a
high upside. The quarterly growth in TTV
ranges from -5% to +224%, with the range
mostly on the positive side. District 23
(Bukit Panjang, Choa Chu Kang), District
27 (Sembawang, Yishun), and District 19
(Punggol, Sengkang) once again come out
as the top 3 districts with the highest TTV.
District 23 continues its stellar run as it
records yet another 224% growth in TTV
(the segment with the highest TTV growth
in Q3 2023) with a total transaction value
of $653 million – more than triple of last
quarter’s record of $202 million. This
comes on the back of Sol Acres achieving
its MOP this year, allowing its units to hit
the resale market for Singaporeans and
Permanent Residents (PRs).
As a mega development and the largest
development in Choa Chu Kang, the
average PSF of Sol Acres has grown by
almost 80% since its launch in 2014. The
launch of Altura EC in the Bukit Batok
area of District 23 in August could have
contributed to the high transaction activity
and TTV as well.
District 18 (Pasir Ris, Tampines) also saw a
decent 49% growth in TTV, a testament
of the strong demand for ECs in the area
which will see upcoming Cross Island Line
(CRL) interchanges at Tampines North and
Pasir Ris MRT stations.
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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023
Apartment & Condominium
Prices of private non-landed properties
increased by 2.2% in Q3 2023, compared
with the 0.6% decrease in the previous
quarter. Breaking it down by region, private
non-landed property prices in the Core
Central Region (CCR) fell by 2.7% in Q3
2023, a sharper drop than the 0.1% seen in
the previous quarter.
Conversely, in the Rest of Central Region
(RCR), prices rose by 2.1%, rebounding from
a 2.5% decline. Meanwhile, the Outside
Central Region (OCR) saw a significant
5.5% increase in prices, up from a 1.2% rise
in the prior quarter.
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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023
Looking at the Apartment & Condominium
subgroup, the mostly-red heat map is
consistent with URA’s real estate statistics
for Q3 2023 showing that sale transaction
volume for private non-landed properties
had dropped by a significant 15% QoQ
and 26% YoY. The growth rate of TTV this
quarter ranges from -63% to +1,098%, but
the change in transaction value compared
to the previous quarter is rather marginal
for most segments. The districts with the
highest TTV are District 15 (Marine Parade,
Katong), District 10 (Bukit Timah, Holland
Village), and District 26 (Upper Thomson,
Lentor).
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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023
District 15 continues to dominate as the
segment with the highest transaction
value and activity, on the back of several
high-profile new launches such as
Tembusu Grand, Grand Dunman, and The
Continuum. Despite its TTV growing by
only 3% from the previous quarter, District
15 saw a whopping 905 transactions in Q3
2023. In that same vein, District 26 was
also a standout segment, experiencing
a massive 1,098% increase in TTV and
recording 425 transactions in this quarter.
This performance can be largely attributed
to the successful launch of Lentor Hill
Residences, which sold about 50% or 298
of its 598 units on its launch weekend.
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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023

Pure Landed

Coming to the Pure Landed subgroup, the previous quarter. The growth rate of
the mostly-green heat map reflects that TTV ranges from -35% to +114%, with the
transaction activity has picked up again range mostly on the positive side.
across different segments as compared to

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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023
Despite the healthy TTV growth in the
pure landed subgroup, prices of landed
properties decreased by 3.6% in Q3 2023,
reversing the 1.1% increase in the previous
quarter. We previously wrote an article
addressing the decline of the landed price
index based on URA’s Q3 flash estimates.
Digging deeper into the underlying factors
contributing to this decline, we uncovered a
significant drop in median transacted price
of detached houses – and specifically the
significant decrease in the average PSF of
detached houses in Districts 10 and 11 which
accounts for 57% of the entire detached
house market.
Although the average PSF of detached
houses in Districts 10 and 11 have come
down, the segments as a whole are still
performing well based on their TTV.
Strata Landed
In the Strata Landed subgroup, due to the
low transaction volume, we were not able to
draw any meaningful insights this quarter.
Districts 10 and 11 recorded an 11% and
53% TTV growth respectively compared to
the previous quarter, combining for a total
of 56 transactions. This could indicate an
opportunity space for buyers to hunt for a
good entry into these segments.
District 19, ranked third last quarter in terms
of its TTV, has grown by 32% in terms of
TTV and has the highest TTV in Q3 2023.
Looking at the numbers, District 19 recorded
a total of 62 transactions amounting to
$290 million in transacted value compared
to District 11 that recorded $266 million in
transacted value with just 25 transactions.
This disparity indicates the price differential
of District 19 pure landed properties as
compared to District 11’s.
We will continue to monitor the subgroup
in the coming quarters for any movements
in transaction activity.
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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023

Quarterly Growth
in Commercial
Real Estate
Segments
In this section, we examine commercial real estate segments. This refers to commercial offices,
shophouses, and retail shops. With the ABSD rate for foreigners doubled to 60%, foreign
investors might be looking towards non-residential segments such as commercial and industrial
properties to avoid the hefty tax. We look at the transaction activity in the commercial space to
get a general idea of how the segment is doing.

The percentage values in the charts refer to the quarter-on-quarter change in Total Transaction
Value (TTV), and the colour gradient of the boxes are based on the percentage change compared
to the previous quarter. The size of the boxes refers to the relative TTV to other segments, which
tells us which segments have the most ‘activity’ in terms of value being transacted.

One caveat to note here is that for commercial properties, many businesses choose to rent for
their operations rather than to buy and pay hefty overheads to maintain a property. Therefore
the transaction activity is typically low and trends can be volatile.

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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023
Commercial Office
For the Commercial Office subgroup, the
transaction heat map shows a quarterly
growth range of -74% to +326%. The
largest segment remains to be District 1
Central Business District (CBD), despite its
TTV experiencing a 31% decline compared
to the previous quarter. Although it is the
biggest segment in the subgroup, there were
only 13 transactions in Q3 2023 translating
to a transacted value of $166 million, which
reflects the nature of commercial office
spaces in Singapore.
District 19 recorded the highest growth
in TTV this quarter, which could be a
positive sign for the government’s efforts
to decentralise the CBD with upcoming
transformations such as the Punggol Digital
District. Districts 9 (Orchard, River Valley),
15 (Marine Parade, Katong), 22 (Boon
Lay, Jurong, Tuas), and 25 (Admiralty,
Woodlands) all had a positive TTV growth
of over 100% compared to the previous
quarter, but seeing as they combine for
only 24 transactions, the trend is likely to be
volatile and could fluctuate in the coming
quarters. Two of these districts, 22 and
25, are also where major transformations
are happening – the Jurong Lake and
Jurong Innovation District, as well as
the Woodlands Regional Centre. These
upcoming transformations are part of the
government’s effort to decentralise the
CBD and will generate more commercial
activities in the OCR in the future.
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Commercial Shophouse

Coming to the Commercial Shophouse After District 1 (CBD) surpassed District

subgroup, the quarterly growth numbers 8 (Farrer Park, Serangoon Road) in total
indicate that transaction activity has transacted value and transaction volume
dropped, reversing the growth in TTV the last quarter, the tables have turned again in
previous quarter. The quarterly growth Q3 2023. Looking closer at the numbers,
ranges from -72% to +187%, with the range both districts saw a dip in transaction
mostly on the negative side. However, this activity – so the reversal of TTV ranking
does not mean that prices will start falling was due to a sharper decline in transaction
in tandem since Shophouses have always activity in District 1 compared to District 8.
been the best performing segment among
commercial real estate due to its limited
supply and historical value. This decline in
transaction activity across the segments
is likely due to a lack of supply given that
most owners are likely holding on to them
or renting them out.

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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023
Commercial Retail
Lastly, the Commercial Retail subgroup
shows a quarterly TTV growth range
of -67% to +20,845%. Retail spaces
are typically rented from larger mall
operators such as CapitaLand and Far
East Organisation, which explains the
low transaction volume and activity every
quarter. The inflated TTV growth rate
for District 16 (Bedok, Upper East Coast)
is due to 4 transactions that amounted
to a transacted value of $339 million,
compared to the previous quarter where it
only had 3 transactions that amounted to
$1.6 million. The 4 transactions in District 16
this quarter include 3 transactions in East
Village amounting to about $1.4 million and
the sale of Changi City Point by Frasers
Centrepoint Trust which amounted to $338
million.
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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023

In Focus —
Opportunity Spaces
Based On Q3 Data

As we await some reprieve from the high interest rate environment, the role of real estate as a
potential safeguard in uncertain economic times is increasingly coming to the fore. However,
it’s important to note that the performance of real estate as an investment can vary widely,
influenced by factors such as property type and location. With the growing global economic
uncertainty, these disparities are likely to become more pronounced. For market participants,
it is advisable to closely examine the residential market segment. With that said, this section
should not be seen as a buy or sell recommendation. Instead, we highlight areas that are
worth looking into, taking into account individual investment goals and the nuances of specific
projects.

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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023

Opportunity Spaces for Sellers

Category Area

Resale HDBs Punggol, Sengkang, and Jurong West

Executive Condominiums (EC) Districts 23, 27, and 19

Apartments and Condominiums Districts 15, 26, and 19

Pure Landed Districts 19, 15, and 20

Opportunity Spaces for Buyers

Category Area

Resale HDBs Sengkang, Serangoon, and Jurong West

Executive Condominiums (EC) Districts 23, 27, and 18

Apartments and Condominiums Districts 26, 22, and 23

Pure Landed Districts 16, 17, 11, and 19

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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023

Caveats &
Disclaimers
The analysis and conclusions presented in our report are based on the data provided by
the sources we have used. Therefore, the accuracy and reliability of our report depend on
the integrity of the data provided by these sources.

The information contained in this report should not be construed as financial or real estate
advice. It is recommended that you conduct your own thorough research and analysis
before making any financial commitments or property decisions. It is essential to consult
with qualified professionals to ensure that you have a comprehensive understanding of
your financial situation and that your decisions are aligned with your best interests.

If you are interested in connecting with our team of real estate experts, please don’t
hesitate to reach out to us. We would be delighted to engage with you on a deeper level
and explore how the insights presented in this report could be relevant to your specific
property journey.

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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023

About
PropertyLimBrothers
PropertyLimBrothers is a Real Estate Media Technology Company
revolutionising the Real Estate scene in Singapore. We use creative
content to market and sell properties to their fullest potential. Using the
PLB Signature Team Model, this is where each property is creatively
marketed to its fullest potential.

About InsightsbyPLB
InsightsbyPLB is our editorial and research arm where we do deep
analyses of market trends, property news and all things Real Estate.
Our Insights page covers deep dives from New Launch analyses to
investments FAQs, answering relevant and insightful questions that best
position our readers in this ever volatile market.

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PLB Insights Q3 Report 2023
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