sustainability-15-11937

sustainability
Article
Collaborative Integrated Sustainable Tourism Management Model
Using System Dynamics: A Case of Labuan Bajo, Indonesia
Shana Fatina * , Tri Edhi Budhi Soesilo and Rudy Parluhutan Tambunan
School of Environmental Science, University of Indonesia, Jakarta 10430, Indonesia; tri.edhi@ui.ac.id (T.E.B.S.);
rudyptamb@gmail.com (R.P.T.)
* Correspondence: shana.fatina@gmail.com; Tel.: +62-811800210
Abstract: Tourism is one of a region’s most prominent development vehicles. However, quality
tourism is only achieved when supported by multi-sectors. This study aims to create a model of
sustainable tourism management using a system dynamics approach. The model is based on the
tourism development case in Labuan Bajo, a newly growing destination in Indonesia and a UNESCO
Komodo biosphere reserve area. The research results in a model of sustainable tourism relevant to
similar destinations with characteristics of high biodiversity but vulnerable to social inequality. This
research finds it is critical to balance tourism growth and impact through the environment, economy,
and social aspects and how destination management shall ensure multi-sector participation to create
a conducive tourism ecosystem in the long run.
Keywords: sustainable tourism management; carrying capacity; system dynamics; multi-sectors

collaboration
1. Introduction
Labuan Bajo, the beautiful port town of West Manggarai Regency, East Nusa Tenggara
Province, has been designated as one of the Super Priority Destinations by the Government
Citation: Fatina, S.; Soesilo, T.E.B.; of Indonesia in the National Mid-Term Development Plan in 2020. The place has been
Tambunan, R.P. Collaborative widely known since the Sail Komodo Event in 2013 and the establishment of the 10 New
Integrated Sustainable Tourism Balis Project in 2016. This destination is a magnet for special interest tourism with the
Management Model Using System unique main attraction of Komodo National Park, a UNESCO world heritage site. However,
Dynamics: A Case of Labuan Bajo, Labuan Bajo tourism still needs to solve the poverty issue in West Manggarai. West
Indonesia. Sustainability 2023, 15, Manggarai Regency has 17.92% of poor people, which is relatively high compared to the
11937. https://doi.org/10.3390/ national figure of 10.19% [1]. Labuan Bajo, one of the richest marine ecosystems globally,
su151511937 part of the Komodo Biosphere Reserve and the entrance to Komodo National Park, is also
Academic Editor: Jun (Justin) Li highly vulnerable because it is sensitive to the number of visits and forms of tourism activity.
In addition to having a positive impact, tourism has the potential to have consequences,
Received: 23 June 2023 especially for endemic species or native species in an area [2].
Revised: 21 July 2023
The Komodo Biosphere Reserve has outstanding biodiversity [3–9]. The natural beauty
Accepted: 26 July 2023
and cultural diversity bring Labuan Bajo extraordinary appeal and high demand by tourists
Published: 3 August 2023
and investors. If protected and managed sustainably, it can generate the benefits of inte-
grated sustainable tourism development throughout the region and provide sustainable
prosperity. In previous studies, tourism was considered capable of being a solution that sup-
Copyright: © 2023 by the authors.
ports conservation [10–13], such as wildlife tourism [14,15]. Economically, global tourism
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. has become a development tool [16] to reduce regional economic vulnerability [17,18].
This article is an open access article Nevertheless, on the other hand, opening conservation areas for tourism might cause
distributed under the terms and irreversible damage [19,20]. Tourism activities are even considered to contribute to the
conditions of the Creative Commons decline in the quality of the environment and the lives of local people.
Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// Sustainable tourism has become a tourism development ethic focusing on resource
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ sustainability [21]. It maintains the long-term sustainable use of conservation assets [22],
4.0/). natural capital, and local culture [23]. Tourism is a subsystem of the biosphere that depends
Sustainability 2023, 15, 11937. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151511937 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability

Sustainability 2023, 15, 11937 2 of 26
on irreplaceable natural resources and services and the interaction between humans, culture,
and the biosphere as a unity [16,24]. The environmental economics perspective increases
social equity and human well-being while significantly reducing ecological scarcities and
environmental risks. The economy depends on the environment and vice-versa. Therefore,
sustainable tourism must be environmentally sustainable [25], socially acceptable [26], and
economically profitable [27]. The management must ensure the future of life on earth and
prevent scarcity and even extinction [28].
Tourism creates opportunities. The benefits of tourism range from job creation [29],
improving the indigenous life quality [30], increased local productivity [31], and destination
creation [32,33]. However, tourism also has negative impacts, such as imperialism [34],
inequality in trade [35], and livelihood shifting [36]. To manage tourism effectively, inte-
grated management of natural capital and local culture in a balance between environmental,
social, and economic aspects is essential [23,37–39]. In conservation-based destinations,
biodiversity can be managed to encourage local people’s welfare by prioritizing integrative,
inclusive, adaptive, and pluralist principles [40]. Therefore, multi-stakeholder engagement
in managing coastal and marine tourism destinations is significant [41].
Inequalities in Labuan Bajo and West Manggarai Regency indicate a need for more di-
rect benefits for the community and the environment as a unified tourism ecosystem [42,43].
A significant nature gap between tourism and other primary sectors’ cultures—such as
fisheries, plantations, and agriculture—needs more community education and participation
efforts. More studies are needed from the perspective of an integrated system to link local
communities to the activities and benefits of tourism. Modelling tourism on an integrated
collaboration model is necessary to meet world-class sustainable tourism standards.
This study aims to create an alternative model of sustainable tourism management
using a system dynamics approach. The model is built upon the destination’s carrying
capacity, including the availability of resources, the convenience of tourist attractions and
activities, amenities, accessibility connectivity, public awareness and participation, gover-
nance, and others [44]. Tourism management must address the environmental carrying
capacity of Komodo National Park as the conservation area, which receives a direct impact
from tourism development, as well as the urban carrying capacity of Labuan Bajo. This
research results in a sustainable tourism management model relevant to similar destinations
with world heritage status [45].
This study consists of five sections. Section 1 explains the research background and
research problems. Section 2 explains the use of the system dynamics approach in other
destinations and previous research on Labuan Bajo tourism. Section 3 explains the system
dynamics approach used in the research of this study and the research location. Section 4
explain the research findings, which are then delivered in Section 5.
2. Literature Review
Tourism is a complex dynamic system [46]. Sustainability [47] is the latest issue for
the global tourism industry in the twenty-first century, where quality tourism is believed
to be the only way to achieve it [46,48]. The system dynamics method has been used to
investigate many tourism complexity phenomena. Mai and Smith’s research in 2015 [49]
and 2018 [44] built an SD model and development scenarios for Cat Ba Island tourism
to overcome the challenges of water shortages, pollution and overcrowding. Meanwhile,
Utami et al. [50] studied the behaviour of the environmental and economic dimensions
of mangrove ecotourism tourism in Blekok Village, which found the highest sensitivity
variables that could affect ecotourism income in the economic subsystem and mangrove
density in the ecological subsystem. Santoso et al. [51] researched the Cibodas agrotourism-
creative economy development system using SD modelling and simulations to explain
how increased innovation will drive a village’s creative economy competitiveness. The
method is also used by Luo et al. [52] to create low-carbon tourism systems at Xingwen
Global Geopark and by Wang L. et al. [53] as a decision-support tool to achieve sustainable
water-quality management in Yangtze Delta Area. Even though these methods can be
very strategic and operational as policy development tools at many different levels for
regulators, the number of tourism research that uses the system thinking and system
dynamics methods still needs to be increased [54].
On the other hand, various studies have been conducted to investigate the sustain-
ability of Labuan Bajo tourism to explain each social, economic, and environmental phe-
nomenon. For the environmental aspect, the issue of water scarcity has been investigated
in Farah et al.’s research [55] using the spatial and water-carrying capacity analysis method
which finds how dependent the islands around Labuan Bajo are on water supply from the
mainland or Cole’s research [56] using the ethnographic method which raises competition
in the use of water between the needs of tourists and local communities that harm women.
Other research warns of threats to biodiversity and animal behaviour changes in the Ko-
modo National Park using behavioural assessment methods [2] and benchmarking studies
with Kruger National Park [57]. For the economic aspect, Baskoro’s 2021 [58] research
focuses on the performance of the tourism business in Labuan Bajo, which has not been
optimal and had less impact on local community welfare. For the social aspect, Sianipar’s
research [59] used the human ecosystem method which essentially notes the challenges of
managing Komodo National Park in the future, namely the sustainability of the Komodo
dragon population, economic inequality with the presence of foreign investors, and the
declining quality of the Komodo dragon’s kinship relationship with the island’s indigenous
tribal community due to reduced intensity of the meeting between the two. Benu et al.‘s
research [60] used the SEM method to analyse the readiness of community-based tourism
from the Komodo National Park. Islahuddin’s research [61] examines the adaptation and
collaboration of local communities in the transformation of Labuan Bajo tourism. Wi-
bowo’s [62] research on natural disaster preparedness uses the TUNAMI method to model
the tsunami potential in Labuan Bajo.
All the previous research has been carried out qualitatively and quantitatively to
explain Labuan Bajo tourism in separate sustainability dimensions. However, they have yet
to be linked to one another. This study elaborates on all three dimensions of sustainability
using systemic thinking which is then poured into a system dynamics model to describe the
tourism sector ecosystem supported by other sectors in a holistic sustainability perspective.
3. Materials and Methods

This section will explain the location of the case study in the Labuan Bajo tourism
destination, then the research methodology and a more detailed explanation of the system
dynamics method used in this study.
3.1. Case Study

The research was conducted in the Labuan Bajo tourism corridor and focuses on the
Key Tourism Area (KTA) 1 of Komodo National Park and Cluster of Urban Development 1
of Labuan Bajo from KTA 2 of Labuan Bajo, located in the northwest part of West Manggarai
Regency, East Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia as in Figure 1. Administratively, the
Labuan Bajo tourism area is bordered by the Flores Sea on the north side, Golo Bilas Village
on the west side, the Flores Sea on the east side, and Wae Kelambu Village on the south
side. Labuan Bajo tourism is part of the Komodo Biosphere Reserve Area, with the main
attraction for conservation tourism in Komodo National Park.
Key Tourism Area 1 of Komodo National Park is a 173,300-hectare conservation island
area which is the natural habitat of endemic Komodo dragons and various special marine
biota. Key Tourism Area 2 Labuan Bajo and its surroundings is the western mainland
region of Flores which consists of five development clusters, namely the Labuan Bajo City,
the Batu Cermin-Wae Kelambu, the Gorontalo-Golo Bilas, the Labuan Bajo Waters, and the
Golo Mori-Warloka.
Sustainability 2023, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 27
mainland region of Flores which consists of five development clusters, namely the Labuan
Sustainability 2023, 15, 11937 Bajo City, the Batu Cermin-Wae Kelambu, the Gorontalo-Golo Bilas, the Labuan Bajo4 of 26
Wa-
ters, and the Golo Mori-Warloka.
Figure 1.
Figure 1. Tourism
Tourismmap
mapofofLabuan
Labuan Bajo
Bajo and
and Komodo
Komodo National
National Park
Park in West
in West Manggarai
Manggarai Regency,
Regency, East
East Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia.
Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia.
3.2.
3.2. Methodology
Methodology
The
The research
research uses
uses mix
mix methods.
methods. Quantitative
Quantitative methods
methods are are used
used to
to obtain
obtain measurable
measurable
field
field data
data to
to be
be processed
processed inin search
search of
of causal
causal relationships
relationships between
between variables
variables as
as dynamic
dynamic
hypothesis testing. Qualitative methods are used to obtain a more
hypothesis testing. Qualitative methods are used to obtain a more in-depth study to un-in-depth study to
understand the phenomenon according to the research focus. This research
derstand the phenomenon according to the research focus. This research was carried out was carried
out in several
in several stages,
stages, namelynamely
data data collection,
collection, identification
identification of theof the and
roles rolesfunctions
and functions of
of stake-
stakeholders in the tourism ecosystem network, formulation of System
holders in the tourism ecosystem network, formulation of System Dynamics models, val- Dynamics models,
validation,
idation, andand scenario
scenario simulations
simulations based
based on on tourism
tourism carrying
carrying capacity.
capacity.
Information
Informationrelated
relatedtotothe
thecondition
conditionofofthethe
existing tourism
existing tourismecosystem waswas
ecosystem carried out
carried
by focused discussions and interviews on sections that needed in-depth
out by focused discussions and interviews on sections that needed in-depth study. Inter-study. Interviews
were conducted with Penta helix Labuan Bajo tourism stakeholders. Discussions were held
views were conducted with Penta helix Labuan Bajo tourism stakeholders. Discussions
specifically to identify and understand the actors and networks involved in the sustainable
were held specifically to identify and understand the actors and networks involved in the
tourism ecosystem in Labuan Bajo. Interviews were conducted by taking recordings
sustainable tourism ecosystem in Labuan Bajo. Interviews were conducted by taking re-
with the permission of the participants, which the researchers then transcribed. Actors
cordings with the permission of the participants, which the researchers then transcribed.
will present different problems, and the actor demanded to solve the problem will most
Actors will present different problems, and the actor demanded to solve the problem will
likely be the key actor. All discussion of the problem is drawn from a common goal,
most likely be the key actor. All discussion of the problem is drawn from a common goal,
namely the sustainable management of Labuan Bajo tourism, with the characteristics of
namely the sustainable management of Labuan Bajo tourism, with the characteristics of
the Komodo Biosphere Reserve. The actors will try to solve the problems expressed based
the Komodo Biosphere Reserve. The actors will try to solve the problems expressed based
on these common goals. To complete the perspective on the discussion, the researcher
also triangulated with other secondary data analysis in the form of documents, reports,
work programs, and related and significant material for the context of sustainable tourism
development in Labuan Bajo in 2010–2022. The results then become input for preparing the
System Dynamics model, built with an environmental science perspective.
3.3. System Dynamics Modeling

Systems thinking is a way of seeing a problem as a unified or as a whole system
that there is always a link between its elements or components. A model is a simplified
and deliberately made imitation of the real world to mimic a natural phenomenon or
an actual process [63]. The model is structured to make studying the interrelationships
of components in complex systems more manageable. The models can be quantitative,
qualitative, and iconic models.
System dynamics is a method that studies systems to understand the system, optimise
system performance, and predict system performance [64]. The system has the characteris-
tics of complex, dynamic, nonlinear and feedback management. The component model in
the system dynamics method is a system structure consisting of various actors, sources of
information, and a network of information flow that links between the two. The following
steps are carried out to develop the system dynamics model as in Table 1.
Table 1. System dynamics modelling stages.
Muhammadi et al. [63] Soesilo & Karuniasa [64]

1. Create a concept 1. Observe the system
2. Modelling 2. Develop the problem structure
3. Perform model simulations 3. Modelling
4. Perform model validation 4. Perform model validation
5. Analyse policies 5. Perform the Business-as-Usual model simulation
6. Perform the intervention model simulation
7. Interpretation and utilization of model simulation
results
Modelling begins with building a causal-loop diagram (CLD) which is then transferred
into a stock-and-flow diagram (SFD). The CLD explains past and current development
patterns with simple system mapping [49]. The CLD model identifies the root causes of
complex problems and the impacts of sustainable tourism development systems to develop
and test alternative management policies [65]. There are two main types of behaviour
in a CLD: Reinforcing (R) and Balancing (B). Reinforcing behaviour occurs when the
relationship between the two components is mutually reinforcing. At the same time,
balancing behaviour occurs when there is a relationship between the two components that
weaken each other.
The CLD model then becomes the basis for making the SFD. Making the SFD begins
with determining the stock, inflow, outflow, constants, and auxiliary variables, then build-
ing relationships between components using mathematical operations. The stock-and-flow
diagram needs to pay attention to the continuity of the units and the relationship between
components as described in the cause-and-effect relationship in the CLD that was prepared
previously. After the SFD is formed, the model is validated before simulation.
Model validation is carried out in several ways, including visual methods and other
simple statistical methods, namely AME (absolute mean error), AVE (absolute variation
error), or RMSE (root mean square error). After the model is declared valid, the Business-
as-Usual simulation and other scenario options desired by the modeller can be carried out
to achieve the system’s goals.
The weakness of the system dynamics method is that the model built is very dependent
on the modeller’s mental model, so it will only describe a part of the selected system as
a locus and research perspective, while the advantages of this method are being able to
map complex interaction patterns, compile alternative scenario projections, and assist in
decision-making.
The System Dynamics modelling in this study is carried out in stages according to
Soesilo & Karuniasa [64] as follows:
3.3.1. System Observation

Researchers identify problems and actors to understand the root causes of tourism in
Labuan Bajo and Komodo National Park. System observation identifies related components
of each environmental, social, and economic subsystem as part of the tourism system. The
system reality is then translated into a mental model by the researcher.
3.3.2. Compilation of the Problem Structure

The researcher then translates the mental model into a causal loop diagram. The causal
loop diagram describes the causal relationship between components in the system in an
image language. Elements are connected by arrows representing the relationship to form
a causal loop. The top of the arrow describes the cause, and the tip of the arrow explains
the effect.
3.3.3. Modeling
The causal loop diagram is then translated into a stock-and-flow diagram with a
correlation formula between its components. The SFD is developed using Powersim Studio
10 software. Data from field observations are then translated into the SFD formula to
explain the relationship between components in the model. Each component in the CLD is
translated into symbols that represent stock (level), flow (rate), auxiliary, and constant.
3.3.4. Model Validation

Model validation aims to check the suitability of the model with reality. Validation
was carried out using visual methods and calculating AME (absolute mean error). The
SFD model was also reviewed in a stakeholder Focus Group Discussion of tourism actors
consisting of local government, academics, travel and tour operators, community, local
leaders, and the media.
3.3.5. Simulation of Business-as-Usual Model

After the model was validated, the researchers simulated a Business-as-Usual (BAU)
scenario using Powersim Studio 10 software to analyse the sensitivity of tourism develop-
ment to an increase in the number of visits and population growth until 2045.
3.3.6. Simulation of the Intervention Scenario

The following simulation is conducted to find the best scenario for managing tourism.
In general, there are two proposed intervention scenarios, namely: (1) the best scenario that
promotes sustainable tourism and (2) the worst scenario without promoting sustainable
tourism. The simulation finds the limit of tourism activities due to the tourism and resources
carrying capacity in various perspectives.
3.3.7. Interpretation and Use of Model Simulation Results

The data analysis results are presented as descriptive narratives, pictures, tables, and
displays that make it easier for the reader to understand them: tables obtained from primary
data processing, secondary data, and documentation during research activities. Images
and charts display the results of research data processing visually. Data interpretation
will be carried out using an environmental science perspective to answer the research
objectives. The research results will become input for formulating policies and improving
the governance of tourism management.
4. Results
This section presents the research results of the System Dynamics model for sustain-
able tourism management. The sustainable tourism system includes the tourism visit,
environment, social, and economy subsystems. The model was developed based on the
Labuan Bajo coastal tourism model components in Table 2. ‘Tourism visits’ is a critical
subsystem in setting the tourism development scenarios, leading to tourist visits, length of
stay, and spending.
Table 2. Components of sustainable tourism system based on Labuan Bajo coastal tourism.
Subsystem Specific Key Parameters Unit

Tourist visits persons
Tourist length of stay days
Tourism Visit
Tourist spending IDR
Tourism carrying capacity persons/year
Domestic water consumption litres/person/day
Tourism water consumption litres/bed/day
Water supply capacity m3 /year
Environment Water needs m3 /year
Waste production ton/day
Tourist waste generation kg/day
Waste management capacity ton/year
Infrastructure dimensionless
Workforce persons
Social
Poverty persons
Human Development Index dimensionless
GRDP IDR
Investment IDR
Number of hotels units
Number of hotel rooms rooms
Number of boats units
Economy
Number of boat rooms rooms
Rice production ton
Fish production ton
Meat production ton
Vegetable and fruit production ton
4.1. Causal-Loop Diagram

A causal loop diagram is made for each environmental, social, and economic sustain-
ability aspect. The CLD is then combined into a single unit which describes the causal
relationship in a sustainable tourism system. The CLD for sustainable tourism can be seen
in Figure 2.
The CLD of sustainable tourism consists of seven Reinforcing loops (R1–R7) and
eleven Balancing loops (B1–B11). Separately, each CLD aspect of sustainable tourism can be
seen in Figure 3 for Environmental CLD, Figure 4 for Social CLD, and Figure 5 for Economic
CLD. The CLD shows how the tourism visit subsystem is related to each other subsystem
in a close loop.
The causal loop diagram for the environmental aspect consists of three Reinforcing
loops (R1, R2, R3) and five Balancing loops (B1, B2, B3, B4, B5), as shown in Figure 3. The
number of tourist visits will affect the increase in waste production and consumption of
clean water. When it is within the carrying capacity, the unhandled waste and untapped
clean water needs of tourists will cause a downward trend in tourists’ interest in visiting
the destination.
The causal loop diagram for social aspects consists of two Reinforcing loops (R1, R4)
and three Balancing loops (B1, B6, B7) in Figure 4. The number of tourist visits will affect
infrastructure provision, increasing the Human Development Index. The increase in the
HDI rate is in line with the decrease in poverty. Reducing poverty will increase tourists’
interest in visiting the destination.
Sustainability 2023,
Sustainability 15,
2023, 15,11937
x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 of8 of
27 26
Figure2.2. Causal
Figure Causal loop
loop diagram of sustainable
sustainabletourism.
tourism.
The CLD of sustainable tourism consists of seven Reinforcing loops (R1–R7) and
eleven Balancing loops (B1–B11). Separately, each CLD aspect of sustainable tourism can
be seen in Figure 3 for Environmental CLD, Figure 4 for Social CLD, and Figure 5 for
Economic CLD. The CLD shows how the tourism visit subsystem is related to each other
subsystem in a close loop.
The causal loop diagram for the environmental aspect consists of three Reinforcing
loops (R1, R2, R3) and five Balancing loops (B1, B2, B3, B4, B5), as shown in Figure 3. The
number of tourist visits will affect the increase in waste production and consumption of
clean water. When it is within the carrying capacity, the unhandled waste and untapped
clean water needs of tourists will cause a downward trend in tourists’ interest in visiting
the destination.
Figure
Figure 3.
3. Causal
Causal loop
loop diagram
diagram of
of the
the environmental
environmental aspect.
aspect.
and three Balancing loops (B1, B6, B7) in Figure 4. The number of tourist visits will affect
HDI rate is in line with the decrease in poverty. Reducing poverty will increase tourists’
Figure 3. Causal loop diagram of the environmental aspect.
and three Balancing loops (B1, B6, B7) in Figure 4. The number of tourist visits will affect
Sustainability 2023, 15, 11937 HDI rate is in line with the decrease in poverty. Reducing poverty will increase tourists’
9 of 26
interest in visiting the destination.
needs. Food consumption consists of rice, fish, meat, vegetables, and fruit—provision of
accommodation in hotel rooms and boat rooms. The provision of food and accommoda-
tion will increase employment. An increase in the length of stay of tourists will increase
tourist spending. Spending on tourists and creating jobs will increase the GRDP figure.
Increased GRDP and investment inflows will increase infrastructure provision. Infrastruc-
ture improvements
Figure 4. Causal loop will increase
diagram of thetourists’ interest in visiting the destination.
social aspect.
Figure 4. Causal loop diagram of the social aspect.
The causal loop diagram for the economic aspect consists of four Reinforcing loops
(R1, R5, R6, R7) and five Balancing loops (B1, B8, B9, B10, B11) in Figure 5. The number of
tourist visits will affect the increase in the length of stay of tourists. An increase in the
length of stay of tourists will impact increasing food consumption and accommodation
Figure 5.
Figure Causal loop
5. Causal loop diagram
diagram of
of the
the economic
economic aspect.
aspect.
The causal loop diagram for the economic aspect consists of four Reinforcing loops (R1,
4.2. Stock‐and‐Flow Diagram
R5, R6, R7) and five Balancing loops (B1, B8, B9, B10, B11) in Figure 5. The number of tourist
visitsThe
willstock-and-flow diagram
affect the increase in theislength
made based
of stayon
ofthe CLD that
tourists. has beeninprepared
An increase pre-
the length of
viously. The stock-and-flow diagram of the research can be seen in Figure 6. The stock-
and-flow diagram integrates the tourism visits, environmental, social, and economic sub-
systems and shows their relationship.
The relationship is driven by the accumulation of foreign and domestic tourist visits
that result in total tourist length of stay, affecting food consumption, accommodation us-
stay of tourists will impact increasing food consumption and accommodation needs. Food
consumption consists of rice, fish, meat, vegetables, and fruit—provision of accommodation
in hotel rooms and boat rooms. The provision of food and accommodation will increase
employment. An increase in the length of stay of tourists will increase tourist spending.
Spending on tourists and creating jobs will increase the GRDP figure. Increased GRDP and
investment inflows will increase infrastructure provision. Infrastructure improvements
will increase tourists’ interest in visiting the destination.
4.2. Stock-and-Flow Diagram

The stock-and-flow diagram is made based on the CLD that has been prepared previ-
ously. The stock-and-flow diagram of the research can be seen in Figure 6. The stock-and-
flow diagram integrates the tourism visits, environmental, social, and economic subsystems
and shows their relationship.
The relationship is driven by the accumulation of foreign and domestic tourist visits
that result in total tourist length of stay, affecting food consumption, accommodation usage,
water consumption, and waste production. The tourist spending then drives the increase of
GRDP, infrastructure provision, increasing HDI, and reducing poverty. However, increasing
tourism businesses like hotels and boats and non-tourism businesses like food production
will create more local jobs and opportunities. The stock-and-flow diagram is made based
on the CLD that has been prepared previously. The stock-and-flow Diagram of the research
can be seen in Figure 6.
The blue colour shows the tourism visit subsystem, the red colour shows the eco-
nomic subsystem, the green colour shows the environmental subsystem, and the black
colour shows the social subsystem. Even though the data collected in this study were for
2010–2021, the SD modelling only used reference data for 2010–2019 because the COVID-19
pandemic occurred in 2020–2021, reducing tourist visits. During the pandemic, tourist
visits dropped dramatically, especially foreign tourists due to the closure of the country’s
entrances. However, the model built can be used as a guide for future development trends
in Labuan Bajo tourism.
The model was then adapted for use in the Labuan Bajo tourism ecosystem based on
reference data from 2010 to 2022. The stocks are ‘tourist visits’, ‘foreign tourists’, ‘domestic
tourists’, ‘water’, ‘waste’, ‘hotel rooms’, ‘boat rooms’, ‘rice’, ‘fish’, ‘meat’, ‘vegetable and
fruit’, ‘GDRP’, ‘poverty’, and ‘HDI’. The average growth rates of datasets are used to
calculate the flow rate formulas. The remaining datasets are used to calculate model
formulas as auxiliary and constants.
The number of tourist visits is taken from the number of Komodo National Park
visitors from 2010 to 2021 [66] in Figure 7.
The tourism carrying capacity data use the results of the previous study, namely a
total of 8230 tourists per day, or 2,880,660 tourists per year. References to the length of stay
and tourist spending are obtained based on the 2022 Exit Survey results conducted by the
Office of Tourism and Creative Economy and Culture of West Manggarai Regency [67] in
Table 3. These figures are used to formulate the total length of stay of tourists and spending
at destinations per year, based on the level of tourist visits.
Table 3. Tourist length of stay and spending.
Domestic Foreigner
Average length of stay (days) 5.25 4.52
Average spending (IDR) 9,604,116 10,697,187
Average spending on souvenirs (IDR) 1,853,776 1,399,445
Percentage of tourists shopping souvenirs (%) 73 42
Source: West Manggarai Cultural Creative Economy and Tourism Office, 2022 [67].
Figure 6. Stock-and-flow diagram of Labuan Bajo sustainable tourism.
The blue colour shows the tourism visit subsystem, the red colour shows the eco-
nomic subsystem, the green colour shows the environmental subsystem, and the black
reference data from 2010 to 2022. The stocks are ‘tourist visits’, ‘foreign tourists’, ‘domestic
tourists’, ‘water’, ‘waste’, ‘hotel rooms’, ‘boat rooms’, ‘rice’, ‘fish’, ‘meat’, ‘vegetable and
fruit’, ‘GDRP’, ‘poverty’, and ‘HDI’. The average growth rates of datasets are used to cal-
culate the flow rate formulas. The remaining datasets are used to calculate model formulas
Sustainability 2023, 15, 11937
as auxiliary and constants. 12 of 26
The number of tourist visits is taken from the number of Komodo National Park vis-
itors from 2010 to 2021 [66] in Figure 7.
Figure7.7. The
Figure The number
number of
of tourist
tourist visits
visits to
to Komodo
KomodoNational
NationalPark.
Park.
Thea tourism
As marine carrying capacity
destination, dataBajo
Labuan use offers
the results
land of the previous
attractions andstudy,
sailingnamely a
activities.
Sustainability 2023, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW
total ofboats
Tourist 8230 facilitate
tourists per day, orat2,880,660
activities tourists
sea, allowing per year.
tourists References
to stay on boardtosothe tour13boats
thelength of 27
of
stay and
have rooms. tourist
Thesespending
activitiesare are
obtained
calledbased
‘Live on the 2022 Moreover,
onboard’. Exit Surveyhotel results conducted
rooms are also
by the Office of Tourism and Creative Economy and Culture
available on the mainland or islands for tourist accommodation. The growth in the of West Manggarai Regency
number
of[67]
number in Table
hotel rooms 3. These
of hotel isroomsfigures
shown are used
isinshown
Figure to formulate
in8,Figure
and the the
the total
number
8, and length
of boat
number of stay
rooms
of boat in of tourists
Table
rooms and4 is
in4Table
is based
onspending
basedofficial at destinations
tourist boats
on official per year,
touristregistered based on
at the West
boats registered the level of
Manggarai
at the tourist visits.
CulturalCultural
West Manggarai CreativeCreative
EconomyEcon-and
Tourism Office. These figures formulate the available land
omy and Tourism Office. These figures formulate the available land and sea accommoda- and sea accommodation to
Table tourists.
serve 3. Tourist length of stay and spending.
tion to serve tourists.
Domestic Foreigner
Average length of stay (days) 5.25 4.52
GROWTH OF HOTELS GROWTH OF HOTEL ROOMS
2010–2020 Average spending (IDR) 9,604,116
2010–2020 10,697,187
Average spending on souvenirs (IDR) 1,853,776 1,399,445
Number of hotels (unit) Number of rooms (rooms)
Percentage of tourists shopping souvenirs (%) 73 42
140 Source: West Manggarai Cultural Creative
2500 Economy and Tourism Office, 2022 [67].
120 113
2000 1698
100 As a marine destination,
116 Labuan Bajo offers land attractions and sailing activities.
2189
76 98
80 Tourist boats facilitate activities at1500
sea, allowing tourists to stay on board
1191 so the tour boats
63 1032
60
38
48 have65rooms. These activities are called
1000 ‘Live onboard’.
835 Moreover, hotel 1462 rooms are also
40 430 1035
48 48 available on the mainland or islands 500
for tourist
764
accommodation.
835 The growth in the
20 28
397
0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
(a) (b)
Figure 8. Growth of hotel rooms in West Manggarai Regency: (a) Hotels; (b) Hotel rooms.
Figure 8. Growth of hotel rooms in West Manggarai Regency: (a) Hotels; (b) Hotel rooms.
Table The growth

4. Growth of hotel
of tourist rooms
boat is caused by newly built and opened hotels, while closed
rooms.
hotel operations or under-maintenance rooms cause a decline in hotel room availability.
The growth Number
of tourist boatofrooms
Touristis caused by newly built
Number of Rooms
and operate tourist boats, while
Year Growth Growth
Boats (Unit) (Rooms)
the decline in boat numbers is caused by closed operation boats, boat sinks, or under-
2016
maintenance boats. 90 247
2018 76 −18% 304 19%
2020 126 40% 537 43%
Table 4. Growth of tourist boat rooms.
Average 2016–2020 11% 31%
Number
Source: West Manggarai of Tour-
Cultural Number
Creative Economy and Tourism of[68].
Office, 2022 Rooms
Year Growth Growth
ist Boats (Unit) (Rooms)
2016 90 247
2018 76 −18% 304 19%
2020 126 40% 537 43%
Average 2016–2020 11% 31%
Source: West Manggarai Cultural Creative Economy and Tourism Office, 2022 [68].
The growth of hotel rooms is caused by newly built and opened hotels, while closed
hotel operations or under-maintenance rooms cause a decline in hotel room availability.
The growth of tourist boat rooms is caused by newly built and operate tourist boats,
while the decline in boat numbers is caused by closed operation boats, boat sinks, or
under-maintenance boats.
Figure 9 is the food production reference data, including rice, fish, meat, vegetables,
and fruit in West Manggarai [1]. The reference for tourist food consumption is 0.34 kg
of rice/day/person, 0.1 kg of fish/day/person, 0.05 kg of meat/day/person, and 0.4 kg
of fruit vegetables/day/person. These figures are used to formulate the availability of
Sustainability 2023, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW
food supply and estimated daily consumption for each tourist for each rice, fish,14meat, of 27
vegetables and fruit.
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
Figure9.9. West
Figure West Manggarai
Manggarai Food
Foodproduction:
production:(a)(a)Rice
Riceproduction; (b)(b)
production; Fish production;
Fish (c) Meat
production; pro-
(c) Meat
duction; (d) Vegetable and fruits production.
production; (d) Vegetable and fruits production.
Figure10
Figure 10isisthe
thereference
referencedata
datafor
forpoverty
povertypatterns
patternsand
andthe
theHuman
HumanDevelopment
Development
IndexininWest
Index WestManggarai
ManggaraiRegency
Regency[1].[1].Poverty
Poverty data
dataand
andHDI
HDIare areused
usedasasindicators
indicatorsofof
communitywelfare
community welfareasaspart
part
ofof a social
a social subsystem.
subsystem. TheThe number
number of poverties
of poverties is calculated
is calculated by
by multiplying
multiplying the poverty
the poverty rate rate by total
by the the total annual
annual population
population of West
of West Manggarai.
Manggarai.
Figure 9. West Manggarai Food production: (a) Rice production; (b) Fish production; (c) Meat pro-
duction; (d) Vegetable and fruits production.
Figure 10 is the reference data for poverty patterns and the Human Development
Index in West Manggarai Regency [1]. Poverty data and HDI are used as indicators of
community welfare as part of a social subsystem. The number of poverties is calculated
by multiplying the poverty rate by the total annual population of West Manggarai.
(a) (b)
Figure
Figure10.
10.West
WestManggarai
ManggaraiPoverty andand
Poverty Human Development
Human Index:
Development (a) Poverty;
Index: (b) Human
(a) Poverty; De-
(b) Human
velopment Index.
Development Index.
Table 5 is the reference data for the tourism water generation in West Manggarai.
Availability of clean water and waste management represent components of the environ-
mental subsystem. The availability of electricity supply is not used in this study because no
reference data can be used. The number of clean water needs is calculated by multiplying
the amount of clean water usage per tourist per day by the total length of stay of tourists.
This model formulation calculates the ability to provide clean water in destinations to meet
the needs of tourists. Table 5 is the reference data for tourism water consumption.
Table 5. West Manggarai tourism water consumption.
Unit
Domestic water consumption 120 litres/person/day
Leak tolerance 20 %
Tourist water consumption (SNI. 03-7065-2005) 250 litres/bed/day
160 litres/second
Labuan Bajo urban water supply system capacity
5,045,760 m3 /year
Total surface water flow 260,996,054 m3 /year
Average runoff coefficient of runoff in Komodo district 0.397
Total domestic, non-domestic, and tourist water needs 5,760,280.35 m3 /year
Source: Ministry of Public Works and Housing, 2022 [69]; West Manggarai regional water company, 2023 [70].
Table 6 is the reference data for the tourist waste generation in KTA Komodo National
Park and KTA Labuan Bajo. The West Manggarai tourism waste production is obtained in
Table 7.
Table 6. KTA Komodo National Park and KTA Labuan Bajo estimated waste sources.
Generation Volume
Source Unit
(kg/Unit.Day) (litres/Unit.Day)
KTA Komodo National Park
Household waste
Komodo Village person 0.13 2.43
Pasir Panjang Village person 0.13 2.43
Papagarang Village person 0.13 2.43
Total household waste 0.39 7.29
Non-household waste
Loh Liang tourism tourist 0.02 0.5
Loh Buaya tourism tourist 0.02 0.5
Table 6. Cont.
Generation Volume
Source Unit
(kg/Unit.Day) (litres/Unit.Day)
Padar tourism tourist 0.02 0.5
Total non-household waste 0.06 1.5
Total KTA KNP waste 0.45 8.79
KTA Labuan Bajo
Households person 0.3 2.5
Medical facilities bed 0.6 7.7
Restaurant chair 1.6 9.2
Market m2 0.1 0.6
Hotel bed 0.1 1.9
Office employee 0.1 7.9
Store employee 0.3 0.5
School student 0.0 0.2
Boats passenger 0.6 8.8
Road access m 0.025 0.1
Total household waste 0.3 2.5
Total non-household waste 3.425 36.9
Total KTA Labuan Bajo waste 3.725 39.4
Source: Ministry of Public Works and Housing, 2022 [69].
Table 7. West Manggarai tourism waste production.
Unit
Tourist waste generation [71] 1.67 kg/person/day
Hotel and restaurant 1.783 ton/day
Tourist boats 0.2 ton/day
KTA Labuan Bajo waste generation [69] 3.725 kg/day
Total Labuan Bajo waste in 2020 [69] 37,104.59 Ton
Labuan Bajo waste management capacity by 2020 0.397 ton/year
Waste handling is calculated by multiplying the amount of waste production per

tourist per day by the total length of stay of tourists. This model formulates the capacity of
waste management facilities at destinations to handle tourist waste.
4.3. Model Validation

Model validation was carried out using visual and simple statistical methods and
AME (Absolute Mean Error) calculations. The model is declared valid if, visually, the
behaviour of the simulation pattern matches the reference pattern. The model is also tested
using the AME calculation and is declared valid if the AME value is less than 30%. AME is
measured as the average absolute difference between the simulation and reference values.
Model validation in Figure 11 and the AME test result show that the model is valid and
can be used to simulate BAU and intervention scenarios.
Figure 11 is a visual validation between the reference and simulation patterns. The
visual results show that the model’s behaviour is appropriate so that the model structure is
correct or declared valid.
After visually validation, researchers used AME calculation to validate the models
further with results as follows:
1. For the number of Tourist Visits, each AME value is 28% for foreign tourists, 28%
for domestic tourists, and 27% for total tourists. The tourist visits models are de-
clared valid.
2. For the number of Hotel Rooms and Boat Rooms, each AME value is 0.16% for
hotel rooms and 13% for boat rooms. The Hotel Rooms and Boat Rooms models are
declared valid.
tourist per day by the total length of stay of tourists. This model formulates the capacity
of waste management facilities at destinations to handle tourist waste.
4.3. Model Validation

Model validation was carried out using visual and simple statistical methods and
AME (Absolute Mean Error) calculations. The model is declared valid if, visually, the be-
haviour of the simulation pattern matches the reference pattern. The model is also tested
using the AME calculation and is declared valid if the AME value is less than 30%. AME
3.is measured
For GRDP, Poverty
as the Rate,
average and West
absolute Manggarai
difference between HDI, each AMEand
the simulation value is 0.17%
reference for
val-
ues. GRDP,
Model 9% for poverty,
validation and 3%
in Figure for HDI.
11 and The GRDP,
the AME Poverty
test result showRate,
that and HDI models
the model is validare
declared
and can valid.
be used to simulate BAU and intervention scenarios.
4. For
Figure 11 is a visual in
food production West Manggarai
validation between Regency, AME
the reference values
and were 7%
simulation for rice,The
patterns. 20%
for fish, 10% for meat, and 11% for vegetables and fruit. The food production
visual results show that the model’s behaviour is appropriate so that the model structure models
are declared
is correct valid.
or declared valid.
TOURIST VISITS FOREIGN TOURIST DOMESTIC TOURIST

AME=27% AME=28% AME=28%
Tourists Visits Reference Tourists Visits Simulation Foreign Tourist Reference Foreign Tourist Simulation Domestic Tourist Reference Domestic Tourist Simulation
300,000 200,000 100,000

250,000 80,000
150,000
200,000
60,000
150,000 100,000
40,000
100,000
50,000 20,000
50,000
0 0 0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
HOTEL BOAT RICE
AME=0.16% AME=13% AME=7%
Hotels Reference Hotels Simulation Boats Reference Boats Simulation Rice Reference Rice Simulation
2000 600 400,000,000

500
1500 300,000,000
400
1000 300 200,000,000
200
500 100,000,000
100
Sustainability
0
2023, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW 0 0
17 of 27
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
FISH MEAT VEGETABLE & FRUIT
AME=18% AME=10% AME=11%
Fish Reference Fish Simulation Meat Reference Meat Simulation Vegetable & Fruit Reference Vegetable & Fruit Simulation
60,000,000 2,500,000 15,000,000
50,000,000 2,000,000
40,000,000 10,000,000
1,500,000
30,000,000
1,000,000 5,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000 500,000
0 0 0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2016
2017
2018
2019
GDRP POVERTY HUMAN

AME=0.17% AME=9% DEVELOPMENT INDEX
AME=3%
GDRP Reference GDRP Simulation Poverty Reference Poverty Simulation
HDI Reference HDI Simulation

2500 60,000
50,000
2000 65
40,000
1500
30,000 60
1000
20,000
55
500 10,000
0 0 50
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Figure 11. Model validation.

Figure 11. Model validation.
After visually validation, researchers used AME calculation to validate the models
further with results as follows:
1. For the number of Tourist Visits, each AME value is 28% for foreign tourists, 28% for
domestic tourists, and 27% for total tourists. The tourist visits models are declared
valid.
4.4. Business-as-Usual Model Simulation

The behaviour of tourist growth affects the carrying capacity of Labuan Bajo desti-
nations. Tourist visits consist of visits by foreign tourists and domestic tourists. In the
compiled model, the growth in tourist visits will result in tourist spending. To be able to
serve tourist visits, it is necessary to have tourist attractions and accommodations consisting
of hotels and tourism boats. In addition, tourist visits will also affect water use and waste
production, which must be within their carrying capacity.
Optimal benefits of tourist visits are expected to increase GRDP income, reduce poverty
rates, and increase the Human Development Index as a co-benefit of tourism growth. In
the BAU scenario, tourist arrivals will exceed the tourism carrying capacity18ofofLabuan
Sustainability 2023, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW 27
Bajo
in 2031 in Figure 12.
Figure
Figure12.
12.BAU
BAUsimulation of tourist
simulation visits.
of tourist visits.
Figure 12. BAU simulation of tourist visits.
Tourist
Touristspending
spendingwill willgrow
growexponentially
exponentiallyduring duringvisits
visitswhere
wheredomestic
domestictourist
tourist spend-
Tourist
spending spending will
is significantly grow
greater thanexponentially
foreign tourist during visitsaswhere
spending, domestic
in Figure 13. Thus, tourist
visits
ing is significantly greater than foreign tourist spending, as in Figure 13. Thus, visits by
spending
by domestic is significantly greatermore
tourists provide thaneconomic
foreign tourist spending,
benefits as in FigureThe
for destinations. 13. Thus,
average visits
ex-
domestic
by domestic tourists provide more economicbenefitsbenefitsfor fordestinations.
destinations. The average expendi-
penditure of tourists
foreign provide
tourists ismore
IDReconomic
2,366,634.29/day with a stay of 4.52The average
days, while ex-the
ture of foreign
penditure
average expenditure tourists
of foreign is IDR
tourists is IDR
of domestic 2,366,634.29/day
2,366,634.29/day
tourists with
withaastay
is IDR 1,829,355.43/day of
of 4.52
stay with 4.52 days,
days,
a stay while
of while
5.25 the average
the
days.
expenditure
average of
expenditure domestic
of tourists
domestic is
tourists IDR
is IDR1,829,355.43/day
1,829,355.43/day with
with
Only 42% of the total foreign tourists shop for souvenirs, while 73% of the total domestic a a stay
stay of of
5.255.25
days.days. Only
tourists shop for souvenirs. Even though the total expenditure of foreign tourists per pertourists
42%
Only of
42% the
of total
the foreign
total tourists
foreign tourists shop
shop forforsouvenirs,
souvenirs, while
while 73%
73% of the
the total
total domestic
domestic
shop
tourists
son for
shop
is more souvenirs.
than that ofEven
for souvenirs. Even
domesticthough
though the
tourists, thetotal
the totalexpenditure
expenditure
visits ofofforeign
of foreign touristsforeign tourists
pertourists
person per per
perperson is
directly
son
moreis more
impact than than
that that of domestic
of domestic
the community’s creative tourists,
tourists,
economy.thethe visitsofofforeign
visits foreign tourists
tourists per
perperson
persondirectly
directly impact
impact the community’s
the community’s creative
creative economy.
economy.
Figure 13. BAU simulation of tourist spending.

Figure
Figure13.
13.BAU
BAUsimulation of tourist
simulation spending.
of tourist spending.
Tourist accommodation services consist of hotels and tourism boats. Limited land
and Tourist accommodation
the vulnerability services ecosystem
of the existing consist of are
hotelstheand tourism
basis boats.the
for limiting Limited land
number of
and thetovulnerability
hotels 10,000 roomsof thetourism
and existingboats
ecosystem areofthe
to a limit basis
2000 for Under
rooms. limitingthese
the conditions,
number of
hotels to 10,000
the carrying roomsof
capacity and tourism boats to
accommodation a limit
will of 2000 rooms.
be exceeded in 2026Under these
in Figure 14.conditions,
the carrying capacity of accommodation will be exceeded in 2026 in Figure 14.
Tourist accommodation services consist of hotels and tourism boats. Limited land and
Sustainability the vulnerability of the existing ecosystem are the basis for limiting the number of19hotels
2023, 15,
15, xx FOR
FOR PEER
PEER REVIEW
REVIEW 19 of
of 27
27
to 10,000 rooms and tourism boats to a limit of 2000 rooms. Under these conditions, the
carrying capacity of accommodation will be exceeded in 2026 in Figure 14.
(a)
(a) (b)
(b)
Figure
Figure 14. Accommodation carrying capacity: (a) BAU simulation
simulationofof accommodation; (b) Accom-
Figure 14.
14. Accommodation carrying capacity:
Accommodation carrying capacity:(a)
(a)BAU
BAUsimulation ofaccommodation;
accommodation;
(b)(b) Accom-
Accommo-
modation
modation availability.
availability.
dation availability.
In
In terms of providing clean water services, the availability of water infrastructure will
In terms
terms ofof providing
providing clean
clean water
water services,
services, the
the availability
availability ofofwater
waterinfrastructure
infrastructure will
will
only
only be
be able
able to
to support
support tourism
tourism until
until 2032,
2032, as
as in
in Figure
Figure 15.
15. Although
Although West
West Manggarai
Manggarai
only be able to support tourism until 2032, as in Figure 15. Although West Manggarai
water
water sources are are still abundant, they cannot be utilized because they are not connected
water sources
sources are still abundant,
still abundant,theytheycannot
cannotbe beutilized
utilizedbecause
becausethey
theyareare not
not connected
connected to
to
to distribution
distribution pipelines.
pipelines. For
For this
this reason,
reason, finding
finding new
new water
water sources
sources connected
connected
distribution pipelines. For this reason, finding new water sources connected to distribution to
to distri-
distri-
bution
bution pipes
pipes
pipes has has
hasato
to be to be
be aa priority
priority priority to
to answer
to answer answer
the needthe need
thefor
need for
clean clean
forwater water
cleanafter
water after
after 2032.
2032. 2032.
Figure
Figure15.
Figure 15.BAU
15. BAUsimulation
BAU simulationof
simulation ofwater
of watercarrying
water carryingcapacity.
carrying capacity.
capacity.
It
Itis
It isalso
is alsoprojected
also projectedin
projected inthe
in theBAU
the BAUscenario
BAU scenariothat
scenario thatthe
that thecarrying
the carryingcapacity
carrying capacityof
capacity ofwaste
of wastewill
waste willnot
will notbe
not be
be
able to
able to
able accommodate
to accommodate tourist waste production
accommodate tourist waste production in 2032, as in
production in 2032, as in Figure
in Figure 16.
Figure 16. Thus,
16. Thus, it is necessary
Thus, ititisisnecessary
necessary
to
toadd
to addwaste
add wastefacilities
waste facilitiesand
facilities andreduce
and reducethe
reduce the amount
amount of
of waste
waste that
that is
is not
not handled.
handled.
Regarding food availability, BAU’s tourism growth can still be met by rice, vegetable,
and fruit production from West Manggarai. However, the availability of fish production
will be exceeded in 2037, and meat will be exceeded in 2039, so it needs to be supplied
from outside the region, as in Figure 17. This projection has yet to consider the local
community’s consumption needs, which means that carrying capacity can be exceeded
faster, and products must be imported from outside the area.
Sustainability
2023, 15,
15, x11937
FOR PEER REVIEW 2019ofof 27
26
Figure 16. BAU simulation of waste management carrying capacity.
from outside the region, as in Figure 17. This projection has yet to consider the local com-
munity’s consumption needs, which means that carrying capacity can be exceeded faster,
and products
Figure
Figure 16.
16. BAU
must be imported
BAU simulation
simulation of
of waste
from outside carrying
waste management
the area.capacity.
management carrying capacity.
from outside the region, as in Figure 17. This projection has yet to consider the local com-
munity’s consumption needs, which means that carrying capacity can be exceeded faster,
and products must be imported from outside the area.
(a) (b)
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
Figure
Figure 17.
17. Food
Food carrying
carryingcapacity:
capacity:(a)
(a)BAU
BAUsimulation
simulationof
ofrice
ricecapacity;
capacity;(b)
(b)BAU
BAUsimulation
simulationofoffish
fish
capacity; (c) BAU simulation of meat capacity; (d) BAU simulation of vegetable and fruit capacity.
BAU simulation for GRDP is in Figure 18, and the simulation for the poverty rate and
the Human Development Index is carried out with the results in Figure 19 to evaluate the
social impact of tourist growth.
(c) (d)
Figure 17. Food carrying capacity: (a) BAU simulation of rice capacity; (b) BAU simulation of fish
Sustainability2023,
Sustainability 2023,15,
15,xxFOR
FORPEER
PEERREVIEW
REVIEW 21 ofof 27
21 27
BAUsimulation
BAU simulationfor
forGRDP
GRDPisisin
inFigure
Figure18,
18,and
andthe
thesimulation
simulationfor
forthe
thepoverty
povertyrate
rateand
and
Sustainability 2023, 15, 11937
the Human Development Index is carried out with the results in Figure 19 to evaluate
the Human Development Index is carried out with the results in Figure 19 to evaluate the
20 the
of 26
Figure18.
Figure 18. BAUsimulation
simulation of grossdomestic
domestic regionalproduct.
product.
Figure 18.BAU
BAU simulationofofgross
gross domesticregional
regional product.
(a)
(a) (b)
(b)
Figure19.
Figure 19. BAUsimulation
simulationsocial
socialaspect:
aspect:(a)
(a)BAU
BAUsimulation
simulationof
of poverty;(b)
(b) BAUsimulation
simulationof
ofhu-
hu-
Figure 19.BAU
BAU simulation social aspect: (a) BAU simulationpoverty;
of poverty;BAU
(b) BAU simulation of
man
man development
development index.
index.
human development index.
The
The
TheBAUBAU simulation
BAUsimulation
simulationresults results that
resultsthat
thatthethe GRDP
theGRDP
GRDPwill will reach
willreach
reachIDRIDR
IDR1010 trillion
10trillion in
trillionin 2037,
in2037,
2037,and and the
andthe
the
Human Development
HumanDevelopment
Human Index
Development Index will reach will reach
reach the the
thehighhigh category
highcategory (70–79)
category(70–79) in 2039
(70–79)inin2039
2039withwith
with the
thethe condi-
condition
condi-
tion
tion that
thatthat
there there
is anisisaccelerated
there anaccelerated
an accelerated infrastructure
infrastructure
infrastructure financing
financing
financing intervention
intervention
interventionof 10%of10%
of 10%
of theofthe
of theGRDP.
GRDP. GRDP.
InIn the
Inthe BAU scenario,
the BAU scenario, tourist
scenario, tourist visits
touristvisits
visitswill will exceed
willexceed
exceed thethethe carrying
carrying capacity
capacity
carrying of
of tourism
capacity tourism
of tourism in
in 2031,
in
2031,
where
2031, where thecarrying
the carrying
where the carrying
capacity capacity ofaccommodation
accommodation
of accommodation
capacity of will
will will
be beexceeded
exceeded
exceeded
be in2026,
in 2026,
in 2026, theavaila-
availa-
the availability
the
bility
of of
water water infrastructure
infrastructure is onlyis only
able able
to to support
support tourism
tourism untiluntil 2032,
2032,
bility of water infrastructure is only able to support tourism until 2032, and the availability and and
the the availability
availability of
of waste
waste infrastructure
infrastructure is is
only only
ableable
to to handle
handle tourist
tourist waste waste
untiluntil
of waste infrastructure is only able to handle tourist waste until 2032. Food needs in the2032. 2032.
Food Food
needs needs
in thein the
BAU
BAU
scenario
BAU scenario
can still
scenario can
can still
bestill
fulfilled
bebe fulfilled
fulfilled
by producing
byby producing
producing rice, vegetables,
rice, vegetables,
rice, vegetables, and fruit
and fruit and
from fruit from
West from West
West
Manggarai.
Manggarai. Still,
Still, the availability
Manggarai. the availability
of fish production
Still, the availability of fish production
will be exceeded
of fish production will
will be be exceeded
inexceeded
2037, andin in 2037,
meat
2037,willand
and meat
bemeat will
exceeded
will
be exceeded
in exceeded
be 2039, in
so itin 2039,toso
needs
2039, so
be ititsupplied
needsto
needs tobebesupplied
from supplied
outsidefromfrom outsidethe
the region.
outside theregion.
region.
5.5.Discussion
Discussion
Discussion
This research dissects
dissectstourism
researchdissects tourisminin
insystemic
systemic thinking, whereas
thinking, whereas a system has components
This research tourism systemic thinking, whereas aasystem
system hascompo-
has compo-
with interaction,
nents with interdependence,
interaction, diversity,diversity,
interdependence, harmony,harmony,
and sustainability
and [47]. A causal
sustainability rela-
[47].
nents with interaction, interdependence, diversity, harmony, and sustainability [47]. AA
tionship
causal between the
relationship demandthe
between fordemand
tourist needs
for and the
tourist supply
needs and ofthe
destinations
supply of is associated
destinations
causal relationship between the demand for tourist needs and the supply of destinations
with travelling or travelling
mobilization activities. Travel activities startactivities
from choosing destinations,
isisassociated
associated with
with travelling or ormobilization
mobilization activities.
activities. Travel
Travel startfrom
activities start from choosing
choosing
planning trips, making
destinations,planning payments,
planningtrips,
trips,making carrying
makingpayments,out tourist
payments,carrying activities
carryingout at
outtouristdestinations,
touristactivities to
activitiesat returning
atdestina-
destina-
destinations,
to theirtoresidences.
tions, returning This
to travel
their experience
residences. is shaped
This travel by cross-sectoral
experience is collaboration
shaped by starting
cross-sectoral
tions, to returning to their residences. This travel experience is shaped by cross-sectoral
from infrastructure,
collaboration starting transportation,
starting from food,
from infrastructure, environmental
infrastructure, transportation,management,
transportation, food, human resource
food, environmental
environmental
collaboration
capacity management, and technology. Therefore, tourism leaders must be able to mobilize
all supporting sectors to deliver quality travel experiences.
The built model has mapped linkages between the tourism visit subsystem and desti-
nation service capabilities, which are translated into environmental, social, and economic
subsystems. The simulation results show that, even though the tourism carrying capacity
is exceeded in 2031, the accommodation carrying capacity will be exceeded much faster,
namely in 2026. It means that the destination will fails to serve tourists before its tourism
carrying capacity exceed the limit. This situation occurs because the ability to provide
accommodation consisting of hotels and boats cannot handle the faster immense growth
in tourist visits. Increasing the number of hotel rooms will take time. It requires at least
three years from planning, construction to being ready for operation. Likewise, adding
tourist boat rooms requires at least two years to prepare and build. However, the number
of tourist boats will be limited due to reducing the burden on waters and conservation
areas. It is necessary to suppress the growth rate of visits and provide time for industry
players to invest in increasing the number of hotels and tourist boats. For example, antici-
pating exceeding carrying capacity in 2026 can be performed by limiting flights or reducing
destination promotions. This model can carry out various intervention simulations as a
guideline for policymakers.
The model helps oversee tourism management carried out in an integrated manner
through cross-sector and multi-stakeholder collaboration. Each actor in the environmental,
economic, and social subsystems will maintain a balance to be beneficial in the long term.
The SD model allows researchers to obtain a crucial factor in the tourism ecosystem: the
number of tourist visits. The SD model does help the decision-making process, which aligns
with previous studies that have linked SD to scenario planning or decision-making [44,49–54].
By modelling the Labuan Bajo tourism system, this study can map the raised issues in
previous research and effectively identify systemic solutions for them. For example, the
issue of water scarcity [55,56] can be visualized in projection and solved by adding more
clean water resources tapped into the system to anticipate incoming clean water scarcity in
2032. Animals’ behavioural change and ecosystem sustainability [2,57] can be solved by
implementing a tourism-carrying capacity to manage tourist visits. The controlled number
of visitors will give space and time for the ecosystem to recover after high-impact tourism
activities. In the economic subsystem, components consisting of the tourism business of
hotels or tourist boats are linkages to the agriculture, fishery, and livestock sectors, which
will automatically create jobs and bring economic benefits to non-tourism communities.
It is in line with the expected solution from previous study [58]. The model also shows
the social benefits of tourism, which are encouraging job creation, increasing the quality of
the Komodo dragon conservation habitat, strengthening local communities [59–62], and
gradually accumulatively increasing the HDI and reducing the amount of poverty.
Policymaking is crucial as a follow-up on the model simulation findings to address
destination management issues without compromising sustainability. Tourism success
cannot only be seen from the number of tourist visits or tourist spending as the primary goal
but how the presence of tourism can encourage the life quality of residents to be better than
before. Balancing biodiversity management between conservation and responsible tourism
in the Komodo National Park Area and the Komodo Biosphere Reserve is challenging. Still,
it can start with the tourism carrying capacity of implementation. The carrying capacity can
be increased by improving infrastructure, such as adding raw water facilities to meet clean
water needs or building waste recycling facilities to reduce residues at final disposal sites. It
can also be achieved by adding alternative tourism products or distributing tourists to other
destinations to avoid congestion and degradation. Carrying capacity must be integrated
with spatial and regional planning so that tourism can run optimally without destroying
existing sustainability. This perspective must also be used in integrated transformative
governance with multi-stakeholder collaboration [72,73].
Scenario planning will benefit Labuan Bajo tourism. Tourism, environmental, and
accommodation carrying capacity are critical success factors in optimizing economic and
social benefits [44,74,75]. It also aligns with the comprehensive carrying capacity theory,
defined as the maximum or optimal limit for tourism growth without damaging physical,
biological, economic, socio-cultural, and psychological conditions [17].
Tourism leaders need to map the destination’s capacity before receiving tourist visits,
from the ecological aspect [76], namely the availability of adequate natural resources
and the ability to restore itself; the social aspect, namely the acceptance of the community
towards the arrival of new cultures without eroding existing culture and even strengthening
cultural preservation; and to economic aspect, namely welfare benefits that are distributed
not only to specific groups or regions but are felt by all classes of society. However, tourism
is also an appropriate tool for transferring knowledge and social transformation of the
local community due to interactions between locals with tourists. The multi-stakeholder
collaboration integration model is a perspective used by destination managers to lead
destination orchestration with the goal of high-quality travel experience with commitment
of sustainability.
6. Conclusions
The integrated model of sustainable tourism management in Labuan Bajo integrates
the management of tourist visits with accommodation availability, food availability, increas-
ing GRDP, poverty alleviation, and improving the quality of life of the local community.
Carrying capacity is essential to ensure the destination’s longevity and sustainability in
designing a tourism destination. The sustainable tourism integration model compiled by
researchers has proven that the environmental, social, and economic dimensions repre-
sented by the simplified components will be limited by the carrying capacity from various
aspects. It is in line with the theory of sustainable tourism, which is implemented through
the carrying capacity management.
Sustainable tourism management requires multi-stakeholder collaboration that con-
siders the carrying capacity to improve the quality of the tourism experience effectively.
The multi-stakeholder collaboration model is applied to balance the three pillars of sus-
tainability: environmentally sustainable, economically profitable, and socially acceptable.
The model helps map the distribution of stakeholder roles and responsibilities. Inter-
vention scenario simulations can be developed further with various modeller objectives
to obtain information and behavioural trends between components incorporated in the
tourism system.
Labuan Bajo has evolved to be the next world-class biodiversity destination. The port
town now has attracted investment from the government and private sectors, which is
expected to increase tourist visits while driving welfare benefits due to increased tourism
spending on local products and creating jobs for the community. However, the sensitive
biodiversity as the main attraction must be managed wisely so that the world-class tourism
potential can preserve the environment.
Using this model helps provide an overview of the current situation of sustainable
tourism from a tourist destination for policymakers and tourism stakeholders. Trends and
findings from simulation results are input for policy formulation, which must anticipate the
limited ability of destinations to handle tourism activities. The tourism carrying capacity of
the destination must be the primary reference in deciding on destination management.
It is necessary to periodically collect field data for each system component to optimise
the built model in describing the dynamic situation. Measurements are essential to solving
exceeding tourism carrying capacities problems. This model shows that achieving sustain-
able tourism requires more than just the role of actors in the tourism sector but also requires
the role of other significant sectors, such as the availability of infrastructure, accessibility,
food, to social transformation.
The limitations of the research in building the model are caused by the unavailability
of all official data and information, so adjustments need to be made based on input from
stakeholders. Data 2022 has yet to be available because the Bureau of Statistics will officially
release it at the end of 2023. However, the pandemic in 2020–2021 had given outlier
data, which the researchers used to adapt the result. The developed tourism model only
simulates tourist travel patterns for the scope of seven tourist points in KTA 1 of Komodo
National Park and eight tourist points in KTA 2 of Labuan Bajo. The model uses only food
commodities such as rice, fish, meat, vegetables, and fruit from West Manggarai Regency.
Other factors are considered exogenous factors that are not considered in the model.
The researcher recommends conducting further research that develops models in
more detail on each aspect of sustainability. Adding other limiting factors such as land-
carrying capacity, energy-carrying capacity, human resource-carrying capacity, and others
is necessary. The model produced in this study must also be tested on other tourist
destinations, with adjustments to the local context.
Author Contributions: Conceptualization, S.F.; methodology, S.F. and T.E.B.S.; software, S.F. and
T.E.B.S.; validation, S.F., T.E.B.S. and R.P.T.; formal analysis, S.F., T.E.B.S. and R.P.T.; investigation, S.F.
and T.E.B.S.; resources, S.F.; data curation, S.F., T.E.B.S. and R.P.T.; writing—original draft preparation,
S.F.; writing—review and editing, S.F., T.E.B.S. and R.P.T.; visualization, S.F., T.E.B.S. and R.P.T.;
supervision, T.E.B.S. and R.P.T.; project administration, S.F.; funding acquisition, S.F. All authors have
read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding: This research received no external funding.
Institutional Review Board Statement: Not applicable.
Informed Consent Statement: Not applicable.
Data Availability Statement: All data have been presented in the paper.
Acknowledgments: The authors thank the Labuan Bajo Flores Tourism Authority and the Ministry
of Tourism and Creative Economy Republic of Indonesia for supporting data and discussion in
this context.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
References
1. Central Bureau of Statistics of West Manggarai Regency. West Manggarai Numbers 2020, 2020, 181.
2. Ardiantiono; Jessop, T.S.; Purwandana, D.; Ciofi, C.; Imansyah, M.J.; Panggur, M.R.; Ariefiandy, A. Effects of human activities on
Komodo dragons in Komodo National Park. Biodivers. Conserv. 2018, 27, 3329–3347. [CrossRef]
3. Ariefiandy, A.; Purwandana, D.; Benu, Y.J.; Letnic, M.; Jessop, T.S. Knee deep in trouble: Rusa deer use an aquatic escape
behaviour to delay attack by Komodo dragons. Aust. Mammal. 2019, 42, 103–105. [CrossRef]
4. Ariefiandy, A.; Purwandana, D.; Natali, C.; Imansyah, M.J.; Surahman, M.; Jessop, T.S.; Ciofi, C. Conservation of Komodo dragons
Varanus komodoensis in the Wae Wuul nature reserve, Flores, Indonesia: A multidisciplinary approach. Int. Zoo Yearb. 2015,
49, 67–80. [CrossRef]
5. Jessop, T.S.; Ariefiandy, A.; Purwandana, D.; Ciofi, C.; Imansyah, J.; Benu, Y.J.; Fordham, D.A.; Forsyth, D.M.; Mulder, R.A.;
Phillips, B.L. Exploring mechanisms and origins of reduced dispersal in island Komodo dragons. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 2018,
285, 20181829. [CrossRef]
6. Jessop, T.S.; Madsen, T.; Ciofi, C.; Imansyah, M.J.; Purwandana, D.; Rudiharto, H.; Arifiandy, A.; Phillips, J.A. Island differences
in population size structure and catch per unit effort and their conservation implications for Komodo dragons. Biol. Conserv.
2007, 135, 247–255. [CrossRef]
7. Ministry of Environment and Forestry Republic of Indonesia. Komodo National Park 25 Year Management Plan; Ministry of
Environment and Forestry Republic of Indonesia: Labuan Bajo, Indonesia, 2000.
8. Kennedi, U.F.; Kusrini, M.D.; Ariefiandy, A.; Mardiastuti, A. Invasive toads are close to but absent from Komodo National Park.
BIO Web. Conf. 2020, 19, 00017. [CrossRef]
9. Ministry of Environment and Forestry Republic of Indonesia. Komodo National Park Management Plan 2016–2025; Ministry of
Environment and Forestry Republic of Indonesia: Labuan Bajo, Indonesia, 2016.
10. Dushani, S.N.; Aanesen, M.; Vondolia, G.K. Balancing conservation goals and ecotourism development in coastal wetland
management in Sri Lanka: A choice experiment. Ocean Coast. Manag. 2021, 210, 105659. [CrossRef]
11. García-Jiménez, R.; Morales-Reyes, Z.; Pérez-García, J.M.; Margalida, A. Economic valuation of non-material contributions to
people provided by avian scavengers: Harmonizing conservation and wildlife-based tourism. Ecol. Econ. 2021, 187, 107088.
[CrossRef]
12. Gonzáles-Mantilla, P.G.; Gallagher, A.J.; León, C.J.; Vianna, G.M.S. Challenges and conservation potential of shark-diving tourism
in the Macaronesian archipelagos. Mar. Policy 2021, 131, 104632. [CrossRef]
13. Zhou, W.; Zheng, B.; Zhang, Z.-Q.; Song, Z.-J.; Duan, W. The role of eco-tourism in ecological conservation in giant panda nature
reserve. J. Environ. Manag. 2021, 295, 113077. [CrossRef]
14. Muntifering, J.R.; Clark, S.; Linklater, W.L.; Uri-Khob, S.; Hebach, E.; Cloete, J.; Jacobs, S.; Knight, A.T. Lessons from a conservation
and tourism cooperative: The Namibian black rhinoceros case. Ann. Tour. Res. 2020, 82, 102918. [CrossRef]
15. Tanalgo, K.C.; Hughes, A.C. The potential of bat-watching tourism in raising public awareness towards bat conservation in the
Philippines. Environ. Chall. 2021, 4, 100140. [CrossRef]
16. Warne, S.J.; Thompson, M. Future approaches to evaluating tourism in the developing world: Assessing realism in the Solomon
Islands. J. Hosp. Tour. Manag. 2022, 50, 391–399. [CrossRef]
17. Wang, J.; Huang, X.; Gong, Z.; Cao, K. Dynamic assessment of tourism carrying capacity and its impacts on tourism economic
growth in urban tourism destinations in China. J. Destin. Mark. Manag. 2020, 15, 100383. [CrossRef]
18. Wang, W.C.; Lin, C.H. A model for sustainable tourism development of hot spring destinations following poverty alleviation:
Understanding the tourists’ perspective. Sustainability 2021, 13, 9856. [CrossRef]
19. Bahja, F.; Hancer, M. Eco-guilt in tourism: Do tourists intend to behave environmentally friendly and still revisit? J. Destin. Mark.
Manag. 2021, 20, 100602. [CrossRef]
20. Insch, A. The challenges of over-tourism facing New Zealand: Risks and responses. J. Destin. Mark. Manag. 2020, 15, 100378.
[CrossRef]
21. Zhang, S.; Chan, E.S.W. A modernism-based interpretation of sustainable tourism. Int. J. Tour. Res. 2020, 22, 223–237. [CrossRef]
22. Gkoumas, A. Evaluating a standard for sustainable tourism through the lenses of local industry. Heliyon 2019, 5, e02707. [CrossRef]
23. Grilli, G.; Tyllianakis, E.; Luisetti, T.; Ferrini, S.; Turner, R.K. Prospective tourist preferences for sustainable tourism development
in Small Island Developing States. Tour. Manag. 2021, 82, 1041178. [CrossRef]
24. Diesendorf, M.; Hamilton, C. Human Ecology, Human Economy: Ideas for an Ecologically Sustainable Future; Allen & Unwin:
St. Leonards, Australia, 1997.
25. Pan, S.Y.; Gao, M.; Kim, H.; Shah, K.J.; Pei, S.L.; Chiang, P.C. Advances and challenges in sustainable tourism toward a green
economy. Sci. Total Environ. 2018, 635, 452–469. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
26. Sheller, M. Reconstructing tourism in the Caribbean: Connecting pandemic recovery, climate resilience and sustainable tourism
through mobility justice. J. Sustain. Tour. 2020, 29, 1436–1449. [CrossRef]
27. Schoneveld, G.C. Sustainable business models for inclusive growth: Towards a conceptual foundation of inclusive business.
J. Clean. Prod. 2020, 277, 124062. [CrossRef]
28. Valdivia, S.; Ugaya, C.M.L.; Hildenbrand, J.; Traverso, M.; Mazijn, B.; Sonnemann, G. A UNEP/SETAC approach towards a life
cycle sustainability assessment—Our contribution to Rio+20. Int. J. Life Cycle Assess. 2013, 18, 1673–1685. [CrossRef]
29. Andereck, K.L.; Nyaupane, G.P. Exploring the Nature of Tourism and Quality of Life Perceptions among Residents. J. Travel Res.
2011, 50, 248–260. [CrossRef]
30. Camargo, B.A.; Winchenbach, A.; Vázquez-Maguirre, M. Restoring the dignity of indigenous people: Perspectives on tourism
employment. Tour. Manag. Perspect. 2022, 41, 100946. [CrossRef]
31. Gyawali, P.; Bhandari, S.; Shrestha, J. Horti-tourism; an approach for strengthening farmers’ economy in the post-covid situation.
J. Agric. Food Res. 2022, 7, 100278. [CrossRef]
32. An, H.M.; Xiao, C.D.; Tong, Y.; Fan, J. Ice-and-snow tourism and its sustainable development in China: A new perspective of
poverty alleviation. Adv. Clim. Chang. Res. 2021, 12, 881–893. [CrossRef]
33. Pan, Y.; Wang, X.; Ryan, C. Chinese seniors holidaying, elderly care, rural tourism and rural poverty alleviation programmes.
J. Hosp. Tour. Manag. 2021, 46, 134–143. [CrossRef]
34. Higgins-Desbiolles, F. The “war over tourism”: Challenges to sustainable tourism in the tourism academy after COVID-19.
J. Sustain. Tour. 2020, 29, 551–569. [CrossRef]
35. Zhang, J. The effects of tourism on income inequality: A meta-analysis of econometrics studies. J. Hosp. Tour. Manag. 2021, 48,
312–321. [CrossRef]
36. Pham, T.T.T. Tourism in marine protected areas: Can it be considered as an alternative livelihood for local communities? Mar.
Policy 2020, 115, 103891. [CrossRef]
37. Lee, C.C.; Chen, M.P. Ecological footprint, tourism development, and country risk: International evidence. J. Clean. Prod. 2021,
279, 123671. [CrossRef]
38. Shi, Y.; Shi, S.; Wang, H. Reconsideration of the methodology for estimation of land population carrying capacity in Shanghai
metropolis. Sci. Total Environ. 2019, 652, 367–381. [CrossRef]
39. Virtanen, P.K.; Siragusa, L.; Guttorm, H. Introduction: Toward more inclusive definitions of sustainability. Curr. Opin. Environ.
Sustain. 2020, 43, 77–82. [CrossRef]
40. Visseren-Hamakers, I.J.; Razzaque, J.; McElwee, P.; Turnhout, E.; Kelemen, E.; Rusch, G.M.; Fernández-Llamazares, A.; Chan, I.;
Lim, M.; Islar, M.; et al. Transformative governance of biodiversity: Insights for sustainable development. Curr. Opin. Environ.
Sustain. 2021, 53, 20–28. [CrossRef]
41. Dimitrovski, D.; Lemmetyinen, A.; Nieminen, L.; Pohjola, T. Understanding coastal and marine tourism sustainability—A
multi-stakeholder analysis. J. Destin. Mark. Manag. 2021, 19, 100554. [CrossRef]
42. Ahmad, R.; Nurmawati, K.M.; Kodir, A. Air dan konflik: Studi ketersediaan sumber daya air di kawasan taman nasional Komodo.
J. Ilmu Sos. dan Hum. 2021, 10, 337–350. [CrossRef]
43. Kodir, A.; Tanjung, A.; Astina, I.K.; Nurwan, M.A.; Nusantara, A.G.; Ahmad, R. The Dynamics of Access on Tourism Development
in Labuan Bajo, Indonesia. Geoj. Tour. Geosites 2020, 29, 662–671. [CrossRef]
44. Mai, T.; Smith, C. Scenario-based planning for tourism development using system dynamic modelling: A case study of Cat Ba
Island, Vietnam. Tour. Manag. 2018, 68, 336–354. [CrossRef]
45. Hosseini, K.; Stefaniec, A.; Hosseini, S.P. World Heritage Sites in developing countries: Assessing impacts and handling
complexities toward sustainable tourism. J. Destin. Mark. Manag. 2021, 20, 100616. [CrossRef]
46. Sweeney, L.B.; Sterman, J.D. Bathtub dynamics: Initial results of a systems thinking inventory. Syst. Dyn. Rev. 2000, 16, 249–286.
47. Miller, G.T.; Spoolman, S.E. Environmental Science, 15th ed.; Cengange Learning: Boston, MA, USA, 2016.
48. Martínez, J.M.G.; Martín, J.M.M.; Fernández, J.A.S.; Mogorrón-Guerrero, H. An analysis of the stability of rural tourism as a
desired condition for sustainable tourism. J. Bus. Res. 2019, 100, 165–174. [CrossRef]
49. Mai, T.; Smith, C. Addressing the threats to tourism sustainability using systems thinking: A case study of Cat Ba Island, Vietnam.
J. Sustain. Tour. 2015, 23, 1504–1528. [CrossRef]
50. Utami, T.N.; Fattah, M.; Intyas, C.A. The System Dynamic of Mangrove Ecotourism of “Kampung Blekok” Situbondo East Java
Indonesia: Economic and Ecological Dimension. Environ. Res. Eng. Manag. 2022, 78, 58–72. [CrossRef]
51. Santoso, S.; Widyanty, W.; Nurhidajat, R.; Marfatah, M.R.; Mahmud, G.; Fahlevi, M.; Aljuaid, M.; Zhghenti, T.; Shahid, D. System
dynamics modeling for developing an agrotourism-creative economy in the framework of the village innovation system. Front.
Environ. Sci. 2022, 10, 962235. [CrossRef]
52. Luo, Y.; Mou, Y.; Wang, Z.; Su, Z.; Qin, Y. Scenario-based planning for a dynamic tourism system with carbon footprint analysis:
A case study of Xingwen Global Geopark, China. J. Clean. Prod. 2020, 254, 119999. [CrossRef]
53. Wang, L.; Wang, R.; Yan, H. System-dynamics modeling for exploring the impact of industrial-structure adjustment on the water
quality of the river network in the Yangtze Delta Area. Sustainability 2021, 13, 7696. [CrossRef]
54. Sedarati, P.; Santos, S.; Pintassilgo, P. System Dynamics in Tourism Planning and Development. Tour. Plan. Dev. 2019, 16, 256–280.
[CrossRef]
55. Muchtar, F.S.; Hasibuan, H.S.; De Rozari, P. Land management semi-arid archipelago based on water carrying capacity: Studies
on Labuan Bajo, East Nusa Tenggara. J. Degrad. Min. Lands Manag. 2023, 10, 4647–4658. [CrossRef]
56. Cole, S. Water worries: An intersectional feminist political ecology of tourism and water in Labuan Bajo, Indonesia. Ann. Tour.
Res. 2017, 67, 14–24. [CrossRef]
57. Reindrawati, D.Y.; Rhama, B.; Hisan, U.F.C. Threats to Sustainable Tourism in National Parks: Case Studies from Indonesia and
South Africa. Afr. J. Hosp. Tour. Leis. 2022, 11, 919–937.
58. Yudhoyono, E.B.; Siregar, H.; Achsani, N.A.; Irawan, T. Financial Performance of Tourism Businesses in Labuan Bajo Tourist Area.
Indonesia. J. Environ. Manag. Tour. 2021, 12, 458–465. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
59. Sianipar, I.M.J.; Tehupeiory, A.; Maya, A.J.; Huy, H.L.A.; Tuan, H.Q.; Suryawan, I.W.K. Human Ecosystem Approach to The
Dynamics of Sustainable Development in Komodo National Park, Indonesia. J. Gov. Civ. Soc. 2022, 6, 276–291.
60. Benu, F.; Muskanan, M.W.; King, P.G.; Asa, H.M.; Wulakada, H.H. Issue 2 Spring. J. Environ. Manag. Tour. 2020, XI, 250–262.
[CrossRef]
61. Islahuddin, I.; Eppang, B.M.; Som, A.P.M.; Masatip, A.; Salim, M.A.M. Adaptation and collaboration of local community in super
priority destination tourism program in Labuan Bajo. ETNOSIA J. Etnogr. Indones. 2022, 7, 15–28. [CrossRef]
62. Wibowo, M. Modeling the Potential of Tsunami Hazard in Labuan Bajo Towards A Disaster-Resilient Tourism Area. Indones. J.
Geogr. 2022, 54, 83–91. [CrossRef]
63. Muhammadi; Aminullah, E.; Soesilo, B. System Dynamics Analysis: Environmental, Social, Economic, Management, 1st ed.; UMJ
Press: Jakarta, Indonesia, 2001; Volume 1.
64. Soesilo, B.; Karuniasa, M. Permodelan Sistem Dinamis, 1st ed.; Lembaga Penerbit Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia: Jakarta,
Indonesia, 2014; Volume 1.
65. Husain; Zarlis, M.; Mawengkang, H.; Efendi, S. Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) Model in Planning A Sustainable Smart Sharia
Tourism. J. Phys Conf. Ser. 2020, 1641, 012099. [CrossRef]
66. Komodo National Park Office. Visitors of Komodo National Park Office 2010–2022; Komodo National Park Office: Labuan Bajo,
Indonesia, 2022.
67. West Manggarai Cultural Creative Economy and Tourism Office. West Manggarai Regency Visitor Satisfaction Exit Survey 2022;
West Manggarai Cultural Creative Economy and Tourism Office: Labuan Bajo, Indonesia, 2022.
68. West Manggarai Cultural Creative Economy and Tourism Office. West Manggarai Regency Tourism Data 2022; West Manggarai
Cultural Creative Economy and Tourism Office: Labuan Bajo, Indonesia, 2022.
69. Ministry of Public Works and Housing Republic of Indonesia, 2022. Integrated Tourism Master Plan Komodo National Park and
Labuan Bajo; Ministry of Public Works and Housing: Jakarta, Indonesia, 2022.
70. West Manggarai Regional Water Company. West Manggarai Regency Water Service Data 2022; West Manggarai Regional Water
Company: Labuan Bajo, Indonesia, 2022.
71. Obersteiner, G.; Gollnow, S.; Eriksson, M. Carbon footprint reduction potential of waste management strategies in tourism.
Environ. Dev. 2021, 39, 100617. [CrossRef]
72. Ariyani, N.; Fauzi, A. Pathways toward the Transformation of Sustainable Rural Tourism Management in Central Java, Indonesia.
Sustainability 2023, 15, 2592. [CrossRef]
73. Wondirad, A.; Tolkach, D.; King, B. Stakeholder collaboration as a major factor for sustainable ecotourism development in
developing countries. Tour. Manag. 2020, 78, 104024. [CrossRef]
74. Hothi, N.; Hothi, G. Water crisis of Shimla Town: Past and present scenario. Mater. Today Proc. 2022, 64, 1250–1254. [CrossRef]
75. Pizzitutti, F.; Walsh, S.J.; Rindfuss, R.R.; Gunter, R.; Quiroga, D.; Tippett, R.; Mena, C.F. Scenario planning for tourism management:
A participatory and system dynamics model applied to the Galapagos Islands of Ecuador. J. Sustain. Tour. 2017, 25, 1117–1137.
[CrossRef]
76. Lee, T.H.; Jan, F.H.; Liu, J.T. Developing an indicator framework for assessing sustainable tourism: Evidence from a Taiwan
ecological resort. Ecol. Indic. 2021, 125, 107596. [CrossRef]
Disclaimer/Publisher’s Note: The statements, opinions and data contained in all publications are solely those of the individual
author(s) and contributor(s) and not of MDPI and/or the editor(s). MDPI and/or the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to
people or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content.

sustainability-15-11937

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

sustainability-15-11937

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

sustainability

Keywords: sustainable tourism management; carrying capacity; system dynamics; multi-sectors

Sustainability 2023, 15, 11937. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151511937 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability

3. Materials and Methods

3.1. Case Study

3.3. System Dynamics Modeling

Table 1. System dynamics modelling stages.

Muhammadi et al. [63] Soesilo & Karuniasa [64]

3.3.1. System Observation

3.3.2. Compilation of the Problem Structure

3.3.4. Model Validation

3.3.5. Simulation of Business-as-Usual Model

3.3.6. Simulation of the Intervention Scenario

3.3.7. Interpretation and Use of Model Simulation Results

Subsystem Specific Key Parameters Unit

4.1. Causal-Loop Diagram

Sustainability 2023, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 of 27

Sustainability 2023, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW 10 of 27

4.2. Stock-and-Flow Diagram

Table 3. Tourist length of stay and spending.

Figure 6. Stock-and-flow diagram of Labuan Bajo sustainable tourism.

Table The growth

Table 5. West Manggarai tourism water consumption.

Table 7. West Manggarai tourism waste production.

Waste handling is calculated by multiplying the amount of waste production per

4.3. Model Validation

4.3. Model Validation

TOURIST VISITS FOREIGN TOURIST DOMESTIC TOURIST

300,000 200,000 100,000

2000 600 400,000,000

60,000,000 2,500,000 15,000,000

GDRP POVERTY HUMAN

HDI Reference HDI Simulation

Figure 11. Model validation.

4.4. Business-as-Usual Model Simulation

Figure 13. BAU simulation of tourist spending.

Figure 16. BAU simulation of waste management carrying capacity.

You might also like