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 THE TIME -
TRAVELLING
ECONOMIST
WHY EDUCATION,
ELECTRICIT Y AND
FERTILIT Y ARE KEY TO
ESCAPING POVERT Y
CH A RLIE ROBERTSON
 The Time-Travelling Economist

“interesting new approach to low income development, highlighting why India

can boom for decades”
—Suresh Prabhu, India’s minister of Civil Aviation (2018–19),
Commerce and Industry (2017–19), Railways (2014–17),
Power (2000–2002)

“I have listened to and read several presentations by Charles Robertson. It is

always amazing how much he captures his audiences’ attention and leaves them
in deep thought, thereafter.
I am sure he will do exactly the same with this book.”
—Dr Shamsuddeen Usman, Nigeria’s Minister of planning (2009–11),
Minister of Finance (2007–09), deputy governor
of the Central Bank of Nigeria (1999–2007)
 Charlie Robertson

The Time-Travelling
Economist
Why Education, Electricity
and Fertility Are Key to Escaping
Poverty
Charlie Robertson
London, UK

ISBN 978-3-030-97596-8    ISBN 978-3-030-97597-5 (eBook)

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-97597-5

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature
Switzerland AG 2022
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether
the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse
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The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication
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The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book
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This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
 Acknowledgements

This book owes a great deal to many people. Firstly, my past and present
macro-strategy colleagues, most obviously Yvonne Mhango, Vikram
Lopez, Daniel Salter and Artem Chubarov. Most of the tables and charts
only exist because of Vikram and Artem.
Also the broader research team, past colleagues and current, including
Nothando Ndebele, Adesoji Solanke, Ahmed Hafez, Ryan Ayache, Seki
Mutukwa, Roy Mutoni, Greg Smith, Johann Pretorius and Oni
Oluwatoyosi.
In offices across Africa over the last decade, I need to thank Temi
Popoola, Stanley Kariuki, Dan Ugwuoke, Yvonne Ike, David Dalhuisen,
Dela Wosornu, Abi Ajisafe and Sam Sule, and in London also Mark
Reed, head of sales trading, who actually reads and has provided thought-­
provoking feedback on my research for many years.
Much appreciation is owed to Anna Vyshlova and Ruslan Babaev for
granting me the time to put this book together and helping provide such
excellent colleagues to work with. Also to Stephen Jennings who inspired
me to join Renaissance Capital and ensured we published the Fastest
Billion, and Ben Samuels who broadened my view to Asia too.  
I owe profound gratitude to Michiko Fox, who helped so much in the
early stages of the book. And I have a debt to Sarah Wangare Kinyanjui,
who was good enough to read and argue with me about many of the
chapters.
v
vi Acknowledgements

It is a mistake to single out specific investors in Africa, Pakistan and

other Frontier markets, but the following have continually provoked,
challenged and often inspired the work in this book: Michael Power,
James Johnstone, Satyen Mehta, Joseph Rohm, Mishnah Seth, Deirdre
Maher, Andy Brudenell, Terence Gray, Suleyman Ba, Andrew Alli, Marc
Stoneham, Larry Speidell, Kevin Daly, John Niepold, Godfrey Mwanza,
Hans-Henrik Skov and James Bannan, Pete Leger, Suhail Suleman, Faisal
Ghori, Ayo Salami, Sebastian Kahlfeld, Lars Bane, David Haglund,
Jennifer Passmore, Nazmeera Moola, Paul Robinson, Randolph
Oosthuizen, Darren Smith, Tarek Karam and Johan De Bruijn, Bob
Mccarthy, Anwaar Wagner, Johannes Loefstrand, Mark Lawrence, Oliver
Bell, Brett Rowley, Nick Padgett, Peter Townshend, Erik Renander,
Matthias Althoff, Susan Wisialko, Karim Sawabini and hundreds more
who I will kick myself for not having mentioned here.
There are a great many civil servants, central bankers and ministers
who have graciously granted their time and knowledge. Many IMF resi-
dent representatives, World Bank staff and embassy officials have pro-
vided their expertise and insights. They have been invaluable. Those who
must be mentioned include Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, Arunma Oteh,
Shamsuddeen Usman, Yemi Kale, Yewande Sadiku, Patrick Njoroge,
Terry Ryan, Gyude Moore, Amine Mati and Tolu Ogunlesi.
Then there is a long list of people who don’t quite fit in any of these lists:
Feyi Fawehinmi (@DoubleEph), David Pilling, Adelaide Changole,
Godfrey Mutizwa, Wole Famurewa, Andrew Skipper, Hannah
Ryder, Christopher Cramer, Michelle Essome, Nonso Obikili, Jonathan
Rosenthal, Ceasar Siwale, Stefan Dercon, Aly-Khan Saatchu, Karen
Taylor and again so many others including every one of those who engage
with me on Twitter. Together they educate me daily.
At a more personal level, I need to thank my loving parents and of
course, the family that I am so lucky to have, my partner Emma, and
bright and engaging “children”, Jacca, Sasha and Katya. They all have
remarkable tolerance. There’s only so often anyone should have to hear
sentences that begin “I’ve just found out this amazing fact …”.
 Contents

Education: No Take Off Without Adult Literacy  1

Electricity: Power to the People 43

Sex and Money: How Many Babies Are Too Many? 93


Debt: A Debt Crisis Is Probably Unavoidable in a Bid to Create
Jobs161

Demographics and Growth: Who Booms, When?193


What the Future Holds: Democracy, Corruption, ESG and
Emigration219

Conclusion243

Glossary251

Bibliography257

Index261
vii
 List of Figures

Education: No Take Off Without Adult Literacy

Fig. 1 How do countries rank on literacy in 2015? Who can’t grow
sustainably and who can’t industrialise yet? Note: There are no
data for Somalia since 2001; as a failed state, it would not
surprise us if literacy had fallen since then. (Source: UNESCO) 6
Fig. 2 Literacy rate, 2015 versus manufacturing as % of value-added,
2015 or 2016. (Source: UN, Guinea-Bissau 1999, Madagascar
2008, Mali 1979, Papua New Guinea 2004, Rwanda 2014,
Somalia was 4.6% in 1990, Sudan 2011) 6
Fig. 3 Map of literacy rates in Imperial Russia in 1897—also a good
guide to per capita levels today (darker is better). (Source: “The
first general census of the population of the Russian Empire in
1897” (1897–1905), Central Statistical Committee of the
Ministry of Internal Affairs (St. Petersburg), Nikolai
Aleksandrovich Troinitsky) 8
Fig. 4 Literacy rates over the last 120 years: green is over 70%, red is
below 40%. Note: SA 7% refers to non-white population
(white was 96%) and same for the 28% figure. 28% for
Szechuan province (China) is the only data we could find and
refers to 1942–43. For UAE we use Trucial Oman for historic
data. In 1945, only the Jews and Armenians in Turkey had a
literacy rate above 50%. (Source: UNESCO, League of
Nations, various other papers) (Color figure online) 9
ix
x List of Figures

Fig. 5 Literacy rates for the past 125 years for a range of European,
Asian and African frontier economies. (Source: League of
Nations, UNESCO, various other sources) (Color figure online) 13
Fig. 6 Nigeria exports similar amounts of oil per capita as Mexico;
Angola is more like Venezuela. (Source: BP, IMF, Polity V) 14
Fig. 7 Adult literacy data in Africa, since 1943. Note: DR Congo
figure for 1960 from the Belgian embassy at the time. (Source:
UNESCO, various other sources) (Color figure online) 16
Fig. 8 Map of Africa by population size (2020 IMF) and literacy rate
(latest, up to 2018 UNESCO) plus other frontier markets
(top-right). (Source: IMF, Central Bank of West Africa, NBS,
UNESCO)18
Fig. 9 The number of literate adult Nigerians has risen from 2 mn in
1952 to 54 mn in 2015, and might double to 101 mn by
2030. Note: We’ve aligned literacy survey data for 1952, 2003
and 2008 with population estimates in 1950, 2000 and 2005.
2020–30 figures are our forecasts. (Source: UNESCO,
Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, UN, Renaissance Capital) 20
Fig. 10 The lag between secondary school enrolment in 1971 and per
capita GDP ($) in 1991. (Source: UN, IMF, BP) 24
Fig. 11 The lag between secondary school enrolment in 1991 and per
capita GDP ($) in 2011. (Source: UN, IMF, BP) 25
Fig. 12 Only a few countries still have secondary school enrolment
rates below 25–28.5%. (Source: UN, IMF, BP) 26
Fig. 13 For nearly half of the countries where literacy rates are under
80%, improving female literacy would make a huge difference.
(Source: UNESCO, Renaissance Capital) 36
Fig. 14 What role did literacy rates in the 1980s play in determining
per capita GDP 30–35 years later? (high energy exporters per
capita in red). Note: Renaissance Capital estimates for literacy
rates in Russia, Korea, Taiwan, Colombia, Jordan, Egypt.
(Source: World Bank, IMF) 37
Fig. 15 The first decades of industrialisation are low-wage decades—
per capita GDP in nominal $. (Source: IMF) 38
 List of Figures xi

Electricity: Power to the People

Fig. 1 Per capita GDP, in 1960 and 2019—all in constant purchasing
power parity dollars (2017 prices). (Source: Penn tables,
Renaissance Capital) 45
Fig. 2 Electricity consumption is correlated with per capita
GDP. (Source: World Bank Enterprise surveys) 50
Fig. 3 OECD countries have an average electricity price of USc10 per
kWh for industry. (Source: OECD) 51
Fig. 4 MENA and South Asia electricity prices for households in
2014. Note: Egypt’s prices have since been raised significantly.
(Source: World Bank via the Arab Union of Electricity (2014)
for MENA countries, World Bank for South Asia but also
Bangladesh and Sri Lanka power company data) 52
Fig. 5 Electricity prices in Africa. Note: Egypt’s figure is from an
unreliable source. (Source: World Bank except for Egypt) 52
Fig. 6 Electricity is a bigger constraint on business than transport
infrastructure, except when there is plenty of electricity.
(Source: World Bank enterprise surveys, Renaissance Capital) 53
Fig. 7 We’ve come a long way baby—hours of light (equivalent to a
1994 light bulb) provided by 60 hours of labour (log scale).
(Source: Washington Post, Renaissance Capital (2018 estimate)) 55
Fig. 8 Number of annual cases (lhs) since 1960 when electricity is
consistent with manufacturing being 20% of GDP. (Source:
World Bank, EIA) 57
Fig. 9 Kenya needs to double electricity to industrialise, kWh per
capita. (Source: EIA, IEA, World Bank, Renaissance Capital) 67
Fig. 10 Zimbabwe is the only example of premature de-industrialisa-
tion in Africa, manufacturing as % of GDP (rhs), electricity
consumption kWh per capita (lhs). (Source: IEA, EIA, World
Bank, Renaissance Capital) 72
Fig. 11 Mauritius, kWh per capita and manufacturing—Ghana now
similar to Mauritius in the late 1980s. (Source: IEA, EIA,
World Bank) 74
Fig. 12 Tunisia could see manufacturing pick up again, on the back of
good literacy and electricity data, kWh per capita. (Source:
IEA, EIA, World Bank) 76
xii List of Figures

Fig. 13 China is roughly 40 years behind Japan, and Vietnam is

roughly five years behind China. This chart compares China
from 2000–15 against Japan from 1960–85, Vietnam from
2005–10 and Germany from 1960–85 (Source: IEA, EIA) 77
Fig. 14 Tonnes of new annual carbon emissions per capita from
lower- to higher-­income countries. (Source: Edgar) 82
Fig. 15 Investment to GDP over 2010–19 (large oil exporters per
capita in bold). Note: No data for Liberia, Somalia, Sudan or
Zimbabwe, and Libya is excluded due to civil war distorting its
ration. (Source: IMF) 86
Fig. 16 Map of Africa by population size, 2016 (IMF) (each box is
1 mn people) and electricity consumption in 2015 (kWh
per capita via the IEA and EIA) for Africa and other frontier
markets (top right). (Source: IMF, IEA, EIA,
Renaissance Capital) 89

Sex and Money: How Many Babies Are Too Many?

Fig. 1 Which countries might expect a jump in bank deposits as the
fertility rate falls? (Source: IMF, UN) 94
Fig. 2 Population 2020 (UN), fertility rate 2020–25 (UN, 2019
estimates). (Source: UN) 96
Fig. 3 Africa—particularly when Algeria was considered part of
France—was important in the 1950s. Today there is more
French trade with Belgium than the whole continent of Africa.
(Source: IMF) 100
Fig. 4 Most countries in Africa are too populous to escape poverty via
commodities. (Source: UNCTAD, IMF, Renaissance Capital) 103
Fig. 5 Borrowing costs in low fertility Africa are as low as low fertility
Asia. Note: Nigeria has temporarily been able to manipulate
interest rates lower, this is not sustainable. (Source: Bloomberg) 104
Fig. 6 Electricity is an essential ingredient for industrialisation—
consumption kWh per capita. (Source: EIA, IEA, IMF) 111
Fig. 7 IMF working paper, “China’s High Savings: Drivers, Prospects
and Policies”. (Source: IMF) 114
Fig. 8 Fertility rate and bank deposits (% of GDP)—banking systems
can expand significantly when the fertility rate drops below
3.0. (Source: IMF, UN) 117
Fig. 9 Bank lending as % of GDP depends on bank deposits—and
cannot be high if fertility rates are high. (Source: IMF) 118
 List of Figures xiii

Fig. 10 Which countries might expect a jump in bank deposits as the

fertility rate falls? (Source: IMF, UN) 119
Fig. 11 Average fertility rate trajectory—with some countries added
individually. (Source: UN) 120
Fig. 12 The link appears to be weak between bank deposits and
nominal interest rates. (Source: IMF, Bloomberg) 121
Fig. 13 Real interest rates are lower in countries with larger financial
sectors—2013 bank deposit data compared to real one-year
interest rates over 2014–18. (Source: IMF, World Bank,
Renaissance Capital) 123
Fig. 14 Low-income countries tend to have governments that can only
raise 20% of GDP in revenues. (Source: IMF) 126
Fig. 15 Bank deposits as a percentage of GDP are a useful guide to
current account deficits. Based on 2013 bank deposit ratios to
GDP, we show the CA balances in the subsequent five years.
(Source: UN, IMF, Renaissance Capital) 127
Fig. 16 Exports of goods and services per capita (2017) among DM,
EM, FM and BF countries—capped at $5 k. (Source: IMF) 128
Fig. 17 CA surpluses (black circled countries) tend to have low real
interest rates, even if bank deposits to GDP are small (under
60%), while current account deficit countries (solid red circle
countries) usually have higher rates. There are odd exceptions
in the bottom left quadrant, often in managed currency
regimes (Source: UN, IMF, Renaissance Capital) 129
Fig. 18 At low-income levels, under-five mortality rates are not well
correlated with per capita GDP. (Source: UN, IMF) 134
Fig. 19 The link between under-5 mortality and total fertility rates is
strong. (Source: UN) 137
Fig. 20 An Indonesian family planning poster, encouraging families to
have two children. (Source: Laju Pertumbuhan Penduduk |
Dinas PP & KB (tulangbawangkab.go.id)) 139

Debt: A Debt Crisis Is Probably Unavoidable in a Bid to Create Jobs

Fig. 1 How many 14-year-olds do you know with lots of savings?
(Source: UN) 165
Fig. 2 If Japan remains a good guide, DM bonds yields will be lower
than the 1990s or 2000s (Source: Bloomberg, Renaissance
Capital)167
xiv List of Figures

Fig. 3 EM $ yields were 12% in 2000, 6% in 2010 and 4% in 2020

(Source: Bloomberg) 167
Fig. 4 Borrowing by Africa has boomed, again. Note: Other includes
Gabon, Benin, Cameroon, Namibia, Ethiopia, Mozambique,
Rwanda, Congo, Uganda and Seychelles. (Source: Bloomberg,
Renaissance Capital) 170
Fig. 5 External debt default is mostly a high fertility country prob-
lem. (Source: Reinhart and Rogoff, UN, Renaissance Capital) 174
Fig. 6 Government interest payments as % of GDP (also shown in
country labels) versus interest payments to government
revenues, 2021 estimates. (Source: IMF, Renaissance Capital) 183
Fig. 7 A rough estimate of Zambia’s interest payments as % of GDP
(the difference between the primary and consolidated general
government budget balance as % of GDP). (Source: IMF,
Renaissance Capital) 183
Fig. 8 Gross external debt as % of merchandise goods exports, 2010
and 2019. (Source: World Bank IDS, UNCTAD, SDSS, IMF,
JEDH)186
Fig. 9 Gross external debt to merchandise exports in 2010 and 2019
(Note: this chart unfairly excludes services such as tourism
which brings in a lot of export revenues for countries like
Seychelles). (Source: World Bank, UNCTAD, IMF, JEDH) 187

Demographics and Growth: Who Booms, When?

Fig. 1 How many countries have grown at what average per capita
GDP rate over the past few decades (with country examples for
each column). (Source: IMF) 194
Fig. 2 Per capita GDP growth doubles from 1.4% when there is one
adult for every child or pensioner to 2.8% when there are 1.4
adults per child or pensioner. (Source: UN, World Bank,
Renaissance Capital) 195
Fig. 3 Where fertility rates and the ratio of adults normally coincide.
Note: 5 countries representing nearly 2bn people are shown in
their positions in 2015. (Source: UN, Renaissance Capital) 196
Fig. 4 As the adults ratio to child or pensioner increases, so do bank
deposits as % of GDP. (Source: UN, World Bank, Renaissance
Capital)197
 List of Figures xv

Fig. 5 Ratio of adults to children and pensioners—1960–2070.

(Source: UN) (Color figure online) 198
Fig. 6 The low ratio of adults to children and pensioners explains why
the twentieth century was so tough for Africa. (Source: UN)
(Color figure online) 200
Fig. 7 Expected headline growth from 1960 to 2070, given per capita
GDP and population growth (potential growth) in the
following five years. (Source: UN, World Bank, Renaissance
Capital) (Color figure online) 201
Fig. 8 Expected headline growth from 1960 to 2070, given per capita
GDP and population growth (potential growth) in the
following five years. (Source: UN, World Bank, Renaissance
Capital) (Color figure online) 204

 hat the Future Holds: Democracy, Corruption, ESG

W
and Emigration
Fig. 1 Countries are more likely to flip from a negative (autocracy,
closed anocracy) to a positive (democracy, open anocracy)
Polity V score they get richer (2017 PPP dollars). Note: Over
8300 data points for all countries since 1950 where both Penn
Table and Polity V data are available. (Source: Penn Table,
Polity V, Renaissance Capital) 220
Fig. 2 Wealthy democracies don’t die—% chance of losing a positive
Polity V rating at various per capita GDP wealth levels since
1950. Note: Turkey is the only rich example and very debat-
able. (Source: Penn Table, Polity V, Renaissance Capital) 221
Fig. 3 Political regime type versus the business environment in 2018.
(Source: World Bank, Polity V, Renaissance Capital) 227
Fig. 4 Corruption (2020, Transparency International) scores are
strongly linked to per capita GDP ($, 2021). (Source:
Transparency International, IMF, Renaissance Capital) 228
Fig. 5 Minimum monthly wage in dollars, September 2021. Note:
Eurostat data on the left, while data on the right are estimates
and should be treated cautiously. (Source: Eurostat,
Renaissance Capital) (Color figure online) 235
Fig. 6 At what wealth level does a country’s emigration level peak?
(Source: IZA DP No. 8592: Does Development Reduce
Migration? Michael Clements) 237
 List of Tables

Education: No Take Off Without Adult Literacy

Table 1 Adult literacy rates—a rough guide to 1800–1950 4
Table 2 Five countries have the misfortune to rank poorly for adult
literacy up to 2018 and secondary school enrolment in 2015 22

Electricity: Power to the People

Table 1 Electricity consumption per item 47
Table 2 Number of incidents of manufacturing GDP (lhs, vertical)
corresponds with electricity consumption per capita up to the
figure in the horizontal axis 56
Table 3 Electricity consumption, kWh per capita 59
Table 4 Electricity generation by source, % of total, 2018 data unless
otherwise noted 84
Table 5 Education (%), electricity (kWh per capita, ranked by this),
manufacturing (% of value-added) and investment (% of GDP) 88

Sex and Money: How Many Babies Are Too Many?

Table 1 Communist revolutions and per capita GDP (2011 PPP dollars) 109
Table 2 Real interest rates over 2014–18 reflected the size of banking
systems and whether the CA was in surplus or deficit 130
Table 3 TFR versus under-five mortality rate per 1000 135

xvii
xviii List of Tables

Table 4 Total fertility rate (children per woman), since 1950 151
Table 5 Total fertility rate (children per woman) compared to bank
deposits as a percentage of GDP (on the right) since 1960 153

Debt: A Debt Crisis Is Probably Unavoidable in a Bid to Create Jobs

Table 1 How many millions of 15–19-year-olds are there? And how
many are seeking a new job this year? 164
Table 2 The debt service burden at various interest rates 168

Demographics and Growth: Who Booms, When?

Table 1 Per capita GDP and GDP in $bn—2021–70 208
Table 2 Per capita GDP and GDP in $bn—2021–70 in 2021 US
dollars, corrected for exchange rate misalignments in 2021 210
Table 3 GDP in index terms if 2021 = 100 and GDP in $bn in 2021
dollars to 2070 212
Table 4 Population and per capita GDP in 2021 dollars, adjusted for
exchange rate misalignment in 2021 215

 hat the Future Holds: Democracy, Corruption, ESG

W
and Emigration
Table 1 % chance of which political regime in each year—African
countries ranked by population size 224
 Introduction

That first time you land in a country is often a sensory overload. The
temperature, the sounds and smells and the slight nerves at passport con-
trol and then the first step outside the airport all provide those first clues
about a country. Lee Kwan Yew, who was probably the world’s greatest
development economist, understood this very well and from the start of
his rule, did all he could to make landing in Singapore a positive experi-
ence. It still is, although Georgia’s practice of handing you a small bottle
of local red wine when you arrive went one better. It is soon clear you are
somewhere different. What is often less clear is “when” you are.
This book tries to show why just three data points are all you need to
answer that question. These are the adult literacy rate (in any language),
average electricity consumption per person and the total fertility rate.
Once you know these three modest pieces of information, you already
know a huge amount, whether you’ve just arrived at your destination by
plane or train, or even just in your imagination via the time-travelling
machine that is a great history book or novel. With them, you might
answer whether you’re in 1980s Peru, 1970s China or 1750s Scotland.
Will there be corruption? What profession does the taxi driver hope his
children will have, and what proportion of his relatives still work in farm-
ing? How many people will have relatives or friends working abroad? If
you’re a governing minister in a lower-income country, these three
xx Introduction

numbers will tell you what your policy priorities should be, and whether
the job will feel overwhelming or give you European-style August holi-
days with your family. If you’re in the diplomatic corps, the military or
intelligence agencies, these figures are enough to tell you whether to
expect a coup, civil unrest or terrorism. Journalists can call their editors
and know just what type of stories they’ll be sending into head office.
Bankers and investors can analyse where the best business and finance
opportunities are, and where the risks are most likely to be.
Yet this book isn’t just for the visitors. It’s really aimed at the popula-
tion, who of course know where they live, but are often unaware of
“when”. This is not a criticism. It is easier to see differences if you’re the
one travelling between countries, and it gets even easier with age. If you’ve
had the good fortune to visit Mumbai in 1991 and up-and-coming 2012,
it is much easier to see “when” Kenya or Pakistan are.
Even for the visitor, it has got harder to recognise the time travel inher-
ent in going abroad. Your mobile phone is likely to work in almost every
city you visit; the people you meet will have seen many of the same films
or TV box-sets, will listen to the same music and follow some of the same
people on Twitter. But this book is not about the individuals you might
easily relate to. It is about countries and comparisons between them, both
today and over time. It is about recognising and learning from time travel.
Yet unlike an economic history book, it aims not to dwell on the past, but
to help reveal the likely future of countries from Asia to Latin America,
but mainly Africa and South Asia. We can work out which countries will
struggle with mass unemployment and default in the coming decades
and which economies will double in size in the 2020s, and double again
in the 2030s.
Why the focus on low-income countries? The psychological roots
might be because, like Freddie Mercury, “I’m just a poor boy from a poor
family” in Cornwall, the lowest-income county of England. My mother
remembers the family washing being dried in a mangle in the shed next
to the (only) toilet, outdoors of course. An adoring grandmother who
loved books so much she would steal away for hours to read them might
have influenced the literacy chapter. The focus on electricity might stem
from the power cuts that struck regularly enough during my childhood
that I can still remember where the candles were kept. It’s a long way
 Introduction xxi

from all that to the other extreme of constant intercontinental air travel,
plush hotels and meetings with presidents and billionaires (well, a few).
The headline reason for the focus on low-income countries is that this
has been my career. It started with forecasts about the poor countries of
Eastern Europe in the 1990s. I was one of the first economists to tell
financial markets they should lend to Eastern Europe at interest rates that
reflected eventual EU membership. This helped Romania move from the
brink of default in 1999 when it was shunned by the market, to one able
to borrow, paving the way for EU entry in 2007. It helped Romania and
the region achieve bounding leaps in living standards. Some are now on
track to surpass the wealth levels of Greece. It was a steep learning curve,
but enjoyable and satisfying, partly because the forecasts were broadly
right. What I didn’t realise then was that deeper underlying trends
explained in this book were at play in driving Central Europe’s conver-
gence towards West European norms—and these were far more impor-
tant than the forecasts of a mere economist.
The last decade has been even more engaging, but an even steeper
learning curve, in part because my UK background is up to two centuries
away from countries like Nigeria or Pakistan that I’ve been working in.
This temporal gap is a problem for both development economists and
wealthy countries engaging with low-income countries. China is more
engaged in Africa than the West partly because China is just a generation
or two ahead of the development in Africa and South Asia, not centuries.
The West and Japan too often misunderstand what’s happening because
they don’t remember what’s important. When it comes to clashes over
culture, some in the West even forget their own history from half a cen-
tury or so ago, when women did not have the vote in Switzerland and gay
sex was a criminal offence.
My primary focus has been on Africa, but also Pakistan and other so-­
called frontier markets. It has proven oddly personal, perhaps because for
anyone living in London, countries such as Nigeria or Pakistan don’t feel
so far away. So many time travel to London, that there is a familiarity
with the Igbo and the Shoshone, the Gambia and Punjab, that runs deep.
The current leader of Gambia worked just 15 minutes’ walk from my
home. Britain’s own history plays a role too. There’s barely a family that
isn’t intertwined at one point with South Asia or Africa. Even a poor
xxii Introduction

family in Cornwall had ancestors who used their new-found adult liter-
acy, and the infrastructure of new railways and ports of the nineteenth
century, to escape poverty and find work in emerging markets such as the
US, South Africa and Venezuela.
In the last decade, whether in new capital cities, in lockdown London
or my Twitter feed, I keep encountering the same questions. Why is my
country poor? What have we done to deserve this government? When is
it going to get better?
In these questions, there are echoes of Karl Marx’s critique of Europe
in the nineteenth century. At a time when labour was in ample supply,
but savings were not and capital was expensive, it was fairly clear to Marx
who was to blame. Capitalists were at fault, and labour was being deprived
of their rightful share of profits. It wasn’t long before imperialism was
intertwined with capitalism in the critique, and it was the “third world”
and “labour” that were being deprived of justified profits by the rich who
would keep them forever poor.
This was already an attractive argument for many in Africa, Latin
America or Asia in the 1960s when dependency theory tried to explain
the relative wealth of the West and the poverty in the developing world.
Commodity exporters were dependent on, and suppressed by, richer
industrial economies. It remains an attractive theory for some today,
including a few policymakers in powerful positions. Poor countries are
kept poor by the West. France is using West African foreign exchange
reserves to fund the French budget. Washington consensus policies
ruined Nigeria in the 1980s leading to millions of fewer births. Mining
companies exploit Africa’s riches and fail to pay proper taxes. Foreign
bankers charge excessive interest rates when they lend to the poor. The
West and its public and private sector minions are using all the tools at
their disposal to keep Africa down. The IMF and World Bank always
demand cuts in government spending. A fair price is not paid for Ivorian
cocoa or cobalt in the Congo. Wages are suppressed and a continent stays
in poverty. The temptation for the suppressed governments to fight back,
to raid the coffers of these foreign-owned companies with taxes or fines
or to bully mining and energy companies out of a country, so the residual
company can be run for the benefit “of the people”, is a difficult tempta-
tion to resist.
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
hellä ja liikuttava teidän keskinäinen suhteenne oli, ja kun toiselta
puolen teidän omat lausuntonnekin monasti kuvastavat enemmän
kuohuvaa mielen tilaa kuin malttia ja tyyntä mietiskelemistä. Kukapa
ei huomaisi, että harkittu perustelu vähemmän kuin aikaisempi
ennakkoluulo sai teidät niin väärin tuomitsemaan tytärtänne ja heitti
teidät oman mielikuvituksenne suruihin? Huuto käy idästä länteen, ja
se huuto oli tunkeutunut teidänkin korviinne. Lahkolaisuuden ja
eksymyksen henki on irroillaan ja levittää ruttoaan, minne vain tulee
— niin huudetaan, ja kaikki kauhistuvat ja vapisevat ja rakentavat
suoja-aitaa, minkä suinkin voivat, itselleen ja omaisilleen. Mutta se ei
auta: "tuuli käy kussa hän tahtoo"; ja heidänkin joukostaan voi löytyä
joku, joka ei paaduta itseään kuulemasta kehoittavaa ääntä,
Jumalan herättävää ääntä hänen sisimmässään. Hän tunsi kauvan
kaihoa, jota hän itse ei ymmärtänyt; ehkä hän sattumalta tapaa
jonkun, joka on kokenut samaa, mutta on löytänyt rauhan, löytänyt
sen kalliin helmen, ja on Jumalan vahvalla perustuksella; totuuden,
lohdutuksen ja rauhan sanat voittavat jalansijaa kaihoavan
sydämessä, ja hän iloitsee siitä, että hänellekin on koittanut valkeus.
Niin herää hän uuteen elämään, tulee uudeksi ihmiseksi ja lausuu
lähimmälle ystävälleen toisellaisia sanoja kuin koskaan ennen — ja
heti hän on saastutettu, kadotettu, pois sysätty ja häntä surraan kuin
kuollutta! Ettekö tästä tunne itseänne, ystäväni, tai eikö monen täydy
tuntea itseään tästä, monen, joka, tuntematta asian sisällistä laatua,
muutamista heille vastenmielisistä ilmauksista, tai kenties jostain
tilapäisestä erehdyksestä tuomitsee koko jumalallisen asian
hyljättäväksi ja vahingolliseksi, eikä tässä varmassa vakaumuksessa
emmi turvautua mitä mustimpiin ja luonnottomimpiin valheisiinkin
tehdäkseen asian vielä vihattavammaksi!

Myöskin näytte te toden teolla pysyvän siinä mielipiteessä, että

teidän tyttärenne kuihtuminen ja kuolema oli välttämätön seuraus
hänen hengellisistä suruistaan — mielipide, jonka olen kuullut
sanottavan myöskin muista, mutta jota en ole voinut hymyilemättä
kuunnella. Vaikka olisi sattunutkin, että joku ihminen heti
käännyttyään olisi kuollut — ja miksi ei sitä olisi voinut sattua silloin,
samoin kuin muulloinkin? — niin tahdotaan erittäin mieluusti pitää
aivan varmana sitä, että "surulliset ajatukset ovat hänet tappaneet",
niin joudutaan siihen ja pidetään varmana, että hengelliset surut ovat
syynä hänen kuolemaansa, mutta ei ajatella, että mahdollisesti olisi
päinvastoin, että juuri hänen pikainen kuolemansa olisi voinut
myöskin olla syynä heränneeseen huoleen, ja että Jumala sitä
enemmän ja voimakkaammin olisi koettanut herättää häntä, koska
hän näki, että hänellä ei ollut pitkää aikaa jäljellä. — Mutta mitä?
vaikka minä kirjoittaisinkin kaikki ja niin paljon kuin tahtoisin, niin
tiedän kyllä, että minun sanani eivät teissä voi mitään vaikuttaa, eivät
voi teitä saada luopumaan ajatuksestanne ja vakaumuksestanne
muuten, kuin että säde Jumalan taivaallisesta valosta tunkee
sieluunne ja avaa sen totuudelle. Näitä asioita ei voida niinkuin
esimerkiksi muutamia filosofisia totuuksia ottaa, hyväksyä ja hyljätä;
valon täytyy tulla Jumalasta, ja ainoastaan nöyrä ja totuudelle avoin
mieli voi käsittää ja vastaanottaa sen. — Kohta on kuitenkin tämä
lyhyt, katoava elämä lopussa, ja silloin kai me saamme kaikki nähdä,
kuka on paremman osan valinnut, sekö, joka ainoastaan on elänyt ja
leikkinyt maan kuihtuvilla kukilla, vai se, joka on etsinyt ikuista,
katoamatonta aarretta tuolla ylhäällä. Nostakaa siis tekin vanhaa
päätänne ylöspäin, ystäväni; älköön teidän katseenne olko kiinnitetty
pimeään hautaan: teidän tyttärenne ei lepää siellä, vaan hän lepää
tuolla ylhäällä, Jumalan luona, ja löytäkää hänet sieltä!

P.S.
 Koska minä tyytymättömänä ja kummastuksekseni huomaan, että
on luultu tarpeelliseksi vastoin minun tietoani ja tahtoani jättää minun
teille kirjoittamani kirjeet yleisön käsiin, ja koska pelkään, että moni
siitä häikäisevän runollisesta valosta, johon olette voinut pukea
asianne, kentiesi joutuisi harhaan ja eksyisi, niin aion pitää huolta
siitä, että myöskin tämä vastaus, niin järjestämättömänä ja
vaillinaisena, kuin te sen tässä näette, julaistaan edes heikkona
vastalauseena teidän totuuden asian vääristelyynne.

Jälkilause.

Tämä Lauri Stenbäckin runoelmani suomennos, ensimäinen

laatuansa, on tehty v. 1899 ilmestyneen, viidennen ruotsalaisen
painoksen mukaan (jättämällä pois muista kielistä käännetyt runot).
Eläessään oli runoilija itse toimittanut kolme painosta (1840, 1850 ja
1868); hänen kuolemansa jälkeen julkaistuista oli neljäs (1878) yhtä
pitävä edellisen kanssa, jota vastoin viides on lisäyksillä varustettu.
Nämä lisäykset ovat tässä suomennoksessakin luettavat Lopuksi oli
viimeiseen ruotsalaiseen painokseen liitetty muutamia tietoja tekijän
elämästä sekä yksityisistä runoelmista. Niitä ei ole käännökseen
otettu, koska professori Eliel Aspelinin kirjoittama runoilijan
täydellinen elämäkerta on valmistunut ja saatavissa. Nykyään se on
tosin vain ruotsinkielisenä kirjakauppaan ehtinyt, mutta ensi vuonna
se on suomenkielisessäkin asussa ilmestyvä.
 *** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK RUNOJA ***

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