NAMA : Adi Mahendra Pasaribu

NIM : 223303010255
KELAS : Semester 4 Pagi B

Tugas:
1. Coba buat SSE, dari alpha

Alpha1=0,12

a 81.90525

Alpha2= 0,14

a 81.73084

Alpha3= 0,16

a 81.53147

2.plotting Data aktual-Data Peramalan

## membuat plot time series
ts.plot(data.adi, xlab="Periode", ylab="Jumlah Penjualan", main= "Time Series Data Penjualan")
points (data.adi)

# Membuat plot gabungan dari data aktual, pemulusan, dan ramalan

plot(1:length(data.ses[, "aktual"]), data.ses[, "aktual"], type="l", col="black", xlab="Periode",
ylab="Penjualan", main="Time Series Data Penjualan")
lines(1:length(data.ses[, "pemulusan"]), data.ses[, "pemulusan"], col="green", lty=2)
lines(1:length(data.ses[, "ramalan"]), data.ses[, "ramalan"], col="red", lty=2)
# Menambahkan legenda
legend("topleft", legend=c("Data Aktual", "Pemulusan", "Ramalan"), col=c("black", "green", "red"),
lty=1:2)

3 . Carilah nilai MAD, MSE, MAPE

Error kecil

Nilai MAD , MSE , dan MAPE

NO MA MAD MSE MAPE

1 0,12 11.05197 167.2727 14.23394

2 0,14 11.027 167.4876 14.22062

3 0,16 11.02139 167.984 14.22748

Jadi nilai error yang paling kecil adalah 0,14 yang terdapat d nomor 2
 Console
 > ##instal packages untuk melakukan pengolahan forecasting
 > install.packages("forecast")
 WARNING: Rtools is required to build R packages but is not currently
installed. Please download and install the appropriate version of
Rtools before proceeding:

 https://cran.rstudio.com/bin/windows/Rtools/
 Installing package into ‘C:/Users/user/AppData/Local/R/win-library/4.4’
 (as ‘lib’ is unspecified)
 Warning in install.packages :
 unable to access index for repository
https://cran.rstudio.com/src/contrib:
 cannot open URL 'https://cran.rstudio.com/src/contrib/PACKAGES'
 Warning in install.packages :
 package ‘forecast’ is not available for this version of R

 A version of this package for your version of R might be available
elsewhere,
 see the ideas at
 https://cran.r-project.org/doc/manuals/r-patched/R-
admin.html#Installing-packages
 Warning in install.packages :
 unable to access index for repository
https://cran.rstudio.com/bin/windows/contrib/4.4:
 cannot open URL
'https://cran.rstudio.com/bin/windows/contrib/4.4/PACKAGES'
 > install.packages("readxl")##untuk memanggil data versi XL
 WARNING: Rtools is required to build R packages but is not currently
installed. Please download and install the appropriate version of
Rtools before proceeding:

 https://cran.rstudio.com/bin/windows/Rtools/
 Installing package into ‘C:/Users/user/AppData/Local/R/win-library/4.4’
 (as ‘lib’ is unspecified)
 Warning in install.packages :
 unable to access index for repository
https://cran.rstudio.com/src/contrib:
 cannot open URL 'https://cran.rstudio.com/src/contrib/PACKAGES'
 Warning in install.packages :
 package ‘readxl’ is not available for this version of R

 A version of this package for your version of R might be available
elsewhere,
 see the ideas at
 https://cran.r-project.org/doc/manuals/r-patched/R-
admin.html#Installing-packages
 Warning in install.packages :
 unable to access index for repository
https://cran.rstudio.com/bin/windows/contrib/4.4:
 cannot open URL
'https://cran.rstudio.com/bin/windows/contrib/4.4/PACKAGES'
 > ##Memanggil packages yg sudah diinstal
 > library("forecast")
 Registered S3 method overwritten by 'quantmod':
 method from
 as.zoo.data.frame zoo
 This is forecast 8.22.0
 Want to meet other forecasters? Join the International Institute of
Forecasters:
 http://forecasters.org/
 > library("readxl")
 > ##Memanggil data yang diperlukan
 > library(readxl)
 > data_jual_adi <- read_excel("C:/Users/user/Downloads/data jual
adi.xlsx")
 > View(data_jual_adi)
 > ###### ANALISIS DATA #####
 > ## membuat data ke dalam bentuk time series
 > data.adi<-ts(data_jual_adi)
 > data.adi
 Time Series:
 Start = 1
 End = 170
 Frequency = 1
 Penjualan
 [1,] 64
 [2,] 84
 [3,] 62
 [4,] 66
 [5,] 87
 [6,] 70
 [7,] 69
 [8,] 100
 [9,] 73
 [10,] 69
 [11,] 61
 [12,] 80
 [13,] 67
 [14,] 87
 [15,] 91
 [16,] 98
 [17,] 89
 [18,] 89
 [19,] 65
 [20,] 96
 [21,] 89
 [22,] 74
 [23,] 67
 [24,] 87
 [25,] 85
 [26,] 79
 [27,] 87
 [28,] 87
 [29,] 71
 [30,] 96
 [31,] 92
 [32,] 69
 [33,] 65
 [34,] 96
 [35,] 60
 [36,] 64
 [37,] 85
 [38,] 76
 [39,] 77
 [40,] 83
 [41,] 70
 [42,] 86
 [43,] 86
 [44,] 98
 [45,] 70
 [46,] 79
 [47,] 81
 [48,] 64
 [49,] 70
 [50,] 92
 [51,] 95
 [52,] 62
 [53,] 98
 [54,] 91
 [55,] 75
 [56,] 61
 [57,] 61
 [58,] 60
 [59,] 83
 [60,] 78
 [61,] 74
 [62,] 69
 [63,] 76
 [64,] 89
 [65,] 74
 [66,] 87
 [67,] 71
 [68,] 66
 [69,] 61
 [70,] 87
 [71,] 98
 [72,] 71
 [73,] 82
 [74,] 87
 [75,] 87
 [76,] 92
 [77,] 74
 [78,] 68
 [79,] 93
 [80,] 87
 [81,] 91
 [82,] 81
 [83,] 97
 [84,] 99
 [85,] 87
 [86,] 92
 [87,] 96
 [88,] 78
 [89,] 77
 [90,] 98
 [91,] 68
 [92,] 97
 [93,] 75
 [94,] 70
 [95,] 77
 [96,] 61
 [97,] 63
 [98,] 61
 [99,] 66
 [100,] 67
 [101,] 60
 [102,] 73
 [103,] 100
 [104,] 60
 [105,] 60
 [106,] 94
 [107,] 83
 [108,] 88
 [109,] 96
 [110,] 66
 [111,] 89
 [112,] 97
 [113,] 76
 [114,] 91
 [115,] 93
 [116,] 98
 [117,] 65
 [118,] 68
 [119,] 64
 [120,] 70
 [121,] 60
 [122,] 99
 [123,] 94
 [124,] 80
 [125,] 95
 [126,] 71
 [127,] 99
 [128,] 91
 [129,] 87
 [130,] 61
 [131,] 64
 [132,] 94
 [133,] 82
 [134,] 98
 [135,] 62
 [136,] 92
 [137,] 84
 [138,] 65
 [139,] 100
 [140,] 64
 [141,] 80
 [142,] 74
 [143,] 80
 [144,] 96
 [145,] 86
 [146,] 91
 [147,] 61
 [148,] 97
 [149,] 83
 [150,] 79
 [151,] 63
 [152,] 87
 [153,] 78
 [154,] 80
 [155,] 81
 [156,] 61
 [157,] 97
 [158,] 85
 [159,] 89
 [160,] 97
 [161,] 94
 [162,] 94
 [163,] 91
 [164,] 64
 [165,] 87
 [166,] 68
 [167,] 84
 [168,] 88
 [169,] 77
 [170,] 78
 > ## membuat plot time series
 > ts.plot(data.adi, xlab="Periode", ylab="Jumlah Penjualan", main=
"Time Series Data Penjualan")
 > points (data.adi)
 > ## pemulusan data dengan fungsi Holtwinters
 > ## alpha 0.16##
 > # pemulusan
 > ses2 <- HoltWinters(data.adi, alpha= 0.16, beta= F, gamma= F)
 > ses2
 Holt-Winters exponential smoothing without trend and without seasonal
component.

 Call:
 HoltWinters(x = data.adi, alpha = 0.16, beta = F, gamma = F)

 Smoothing parameters:
 alpha: 0.16
 beta : FALSE
 gamma: FALSE

 Coefficients:
 [,1]
 a 81.53147
 > ses2fit <- fitted(ses2)
 > ses2fit # melihat hasil pemulusan
 Time Series:
 Start = 2
 End = 170
 Frequency = 1
 xhat level
 2 64.00000 64.00000
 3 67.20000 67.20000
 4 66.36800 66.36800
 5 66.30912 66.30912
 6 69.61966 69.61966
 7 69.68052 69.68052
 8 69.57163 69.57163
 9 74.44017 74.44017
 10 74.20974 74.20974
 11 73.37618 73.37618
 12 71.39600 71.39600
 13 72.77264 72.77264
 14 71.84901 71.84901
 15 74.27317 74.27317
 16 76.94946 76.94946
 17 80.31755 80.31755
 18 81.70674 81.70674
 19 82.87366 82.87366
 20 80.01388 80.01388
 21 82.57166 82.57166
 22 83.60019 83.60019
 23 82.06416 82.06416
 24 79.65390 79.65390
 25 80.82927 80.82927
 26 81.49659 81.49659
 27 81.09713 81.09713
 28 82.04159 82.04159
 29 82.83494 82.83494
 30 80.94135 80.94135
 31 83.35073 83.35073
 32 84.73462 84.73462
 33 82.21708 82.21708
 34 79.46234 79.46234
 35 82.10837 82.10837
 36 78.57103 78.57103
 37 76.23967 76.23967
 38 77.64132 77.64132
 39 77.37871 77.37871
 40 77.31811 77.31811
 41 78.22722 78.22722
 42 76.91086 76.91086
 43 78.36512 78.36512
 44 79.58670 79.58670
 45 82.53283 82.53283
 46 80.52758 80.52758
 47 80.28317 80.28317
 48 80.39786 80.39786
 49 77.77420 77.77420
 50 76.53033 76.53033
 51 79.00548 79.00548
 52 81.56460 81.56460
 53 78.43426 78.43426
 54 81.56478 81.56478
 55 83.07442 83.07442
 56 81.78251 81.78251
 57 78.45731 78.45731
 58 75.66414 75.66414
 59 73.15788 73.15788
 60 74.73262 74.73262
 61 75.25540 75.25540
 62 75.05453 75.05453
 63 74.08581 74.08581
 64 74.39208 74.39208
 65 76.72935 76.72935
 66 76.29265 76.29265
 67 78.00583 78.00583
 68 76.88489 76.88489
 69 75.14331 75.14331
 70 72.88038 72.88038
 71 75.13952 75.13952
 72 78.79720 78.79720
 73 77.54965 77.54965
 74 78.26170 78.26170
 75 79.65983 79.65983
 76 80.83426 80.83426
 77 82.62078 82.62078
 78 81.24145 81.24145
 79 79.12282 79.12282
 80 81.34317 81.34317
 81 82.24826 82.24826
 82 83.64854 83.64854
 83 83.22477 83.22477
 84 85.42881 85.42881
 85 87.60020 87.60020
 86 87.50417 87.50417
 87 88.22350 88.22350
 88 89.46774 89.46774
 89 87.63290 87.63290
 90 85.93164 85.93164
 91 87.86258 87.86258
 92 84.68456 84.68456
 93 86.65503 86.65503
 94 84.79023 84.79023
 95 82.42379 82.42379
 96 81.55599 81.55599
 97 78.26703 78.26703
 98 75.82430 75.82430
 99 73.45241 73.45241
 100 72.26003 72.26003
 101 71.41842 71.41842
 102 69.59148 69.59148
 103 70.13684 70.13684
 104 74.91495 74.91495
 105 72.52855 72.52855
 106 70.52399 70.52399
 107 74.28015 74.28015
 108 75.67532 75.67532
 109 77.64727 77.64727
 110 80.58371 80.58371
 111 78.25032 78.25032
 112 79.97026 79.97026
 113 82.69502 82.69502
 114 81.62382 81.62382
 115 83.12401 83.12401
 116 84.70417 84.70417
 117 86.83150 86.83150
 118 83.33846 83.33846
 119 80.88431 80.88431
 120 78.18282 78.18282
 121 76.87357 76.87357
 122 74.17380 74.17380
 123 78.14599 78.14599
 124 80.68263 80.68263
 125 80.57341 80.57341
 126 82.88166 82.88166
 127 80.98060 80.98060
 128 83.86370 83.86370
 129 85.00551 85.00551
 130 85.32463 85.32463
 131 81.43269 81.43269
 132 78.64346 78.64346
 133 81.10050 81.10050
 134 81.24442 81.24442
 135 83.92532 83.92532
 136 80.41727 80.41727
 137 82.27050 82.27050
 138 82.54722 82.54722
 139 79.73967 79.73967
 140 82.98132 82.98132
 141 79.94431 79.94431
 142 79.95322 79.95322
 143 79.00070 79.00070
 144 79.16059 79.16059
 145 81.85490 81.85490
 146 82.51811 82.51811
 147 83.87522 83.87522
 148 80.21518 80.21518
 149 82.90075 82.90075
 150 82.91663 82.91663
 151 82.28997 82.28997
 152 79.20358 79.20358
 153 80.45100 80.45100
 154 80.05884 80.05884
 155 80.04943 80.04943
 156 80.20152 80.20152
 157 77.12928 77.12928
 158 80.30859 80.30859
 159 81.05922 81.05922
 160 82.32974 82.32974
 161 84.67698 84.67698
 162 86.16867 86.16867
 163 87.42168 87.42168
 164 87.99421 87.99421
 165 84.15514 84.15514
 166 84.61032 84.61032
 167 81.95266 81.95266
 168 82.28024 82.28024
 169 83.19540 83.19540
 170 82.20414 82.20414
 > #peramalan
 > ramal2 <- forecast(ses2, h=5) #h=periode ramalan
 > df2ramal <- data.frame(ramal2) # memasukkan ke dalam frame
 > df2ramal#print hasil frame
 Point.Forecast Lo.80 Hi.80 Lo.95 Hi.95
 171 81.53147 64.89296 98.16999 56.08506 106.9779
 172 81.53147 64.68133 98.38162 55.76140 107.3015
 173 81.53147 64.47233 98.59062 55.44176 107.6212
 174 81.53147 64.26585 98.79710 55.12599 107.9370
 175 81.53147 64.06182 99.00113 54.81395 108.2490
 > ## membuat plot time series
 > ts.plot(data.adi, xlab="Periode", ylab="Jumlah Penjualan", main=
"Time Series Data Penjualan")
 > points (data.adi)
 >
 >
 > # Membuat plot gabungan dari data aktual, pemulusan, dan ramalan
 > plot(1:length(data.ses[, "aktual"]), data.ses[, "aktual"], type="l",
col="black", xlab="Periode", ylab="Penjualan", main="Time Series Data
Penjualan")
 Error: object 'data.ses' not found
 > ## menggabungkan data aktual,pemulusan data ramalan##
 > #dari data aktual kita sediakan 5 baris akhir dengan nilai NA
 > #dari pemulihan kita ambil dari kolom 1 (xhat)
 > #dari ramalan kita ambil kolom 1 (point.forecast)
 > data.ses <- cbind(aktual = c (data.adi,rep(NA,5)),
 + pemulusan = c(NA,ses2fit[,1],
 + rep(NA,5)),
 + ramalan = c(NA ,
ses2fit[,1],df2ramal$point.Forecast))
 Warning message:
 In cbind(aktual = c(data.adi, rep(NA, 5)), pemulusan = c(NA, ses2fit[,
:
 number of rows of result is not a multiple of vector length (arg 3)
 > data.ses
 aktual pemulusan ramalan
 [1,] 64 NA NA
 [2,] 84 64.00000 64.00000
 [3,] 62 67.20000 67.20000
 [4,] 66 66.36800 66.36800
 [5,] 87 66.30912 66.30912
 [6,] 70 69.61966 69.61966
 [7,] 69 69.68052 69.68052
 [8,] 100 69.57163 69.57163
 [9,] 73 74.44017 74.44017
 [10,] 69 74.20974 74.20974
 [11,] 61 73.37618 73.37618
 [12,] 80 71.39600 71.39600
 [13,] 67 72.77264 72.77264
 [14,] 87 71.84901 71.84901
 [15,] 91 74.27317 74.27317
 [16,] 98 76.94946 76.94946
 [17,] 89 80.31755 80.31755
 [18,] 89 81.70674 81.70674
 [19,] 65 82.87366 82.87366
 [20,] 96 80.01388 80.01388
 [21,] 89 82.57166 82.57166
 [22,] 74 83.60019 83.60019
 [23,] 67 82.06416 82.06416
 [24,] 87 79.65390 79.65390
 [25,] 85 80.82927 80.82927
 [26,] 79 81.49659 81.49659
 [27,] 87 81.09713 81.09713
 [28,] 87 82.04159 82.04159
 [29,] 71 82.83494 82.83494
 [30,] 96 80.94135 80.94135
 [31,] 92 83.35073 83.35073
 [32,] 69 84.73462 84.73462
 [33,] 65 82.21708 82.21708
 [34,] 96 79.46234 79.46234
 [35,] 60 82.10837 82.10837
 [36,] 64 78.57103 78.57103
 [37,] 85 76.23967 76.23967
 [38,] 76 77.64132 77.64132
 [39,] 77 77.37871 77.37871
 [40,] 83 77.31811 77.31811
 [41,] 70 78.22722 78.22722
 [42,] 86 76.91086 76.91086
 [43,] 86 78.36512 78.36512
 [44,] 98 79.58670 79.58670
 [45,] 70 82.53283 82.53283
 [46,] 79 80.52758 80.52758
 [47,] 81 80.28317 80.28317
 [48,] 64 80.39786 80.39786
 [49,] 70 77.77420 77.77420
 [50,] 92 76.53033 76.53033
 [51,] 95 79.00548 79.00548
 [52,] 62 81.56460 81.56460
 [53,] 98 78.43426 78.43426
 [54,] 91 81.56478 81.56478
 [55,] 75 83.07442 83.07442
 [56,] 61 81.78251 81.78251
 [57,] 61 78.45731 78.45731
 [58,] 60 75.66414 75.66414
 [59,] 83 73.15788 73.15788
 [60,] 78 74.73262 74.73262
 [61,] 74 75.25540 75.25540
 [62,] 69 75.05453 75.05453
 [63,] 76 74.08581 74.08581
 [64,] 89 74.39208 74.39208
 [65,] 74 76.72935 76.72935
 [66,] 87 76.29265 76.29265
 [67,] 71 78.00583 78.00583
 [68,] 66 76.88489 76.88489
 [69,] 61 75.14331 75.14331
 [70,] 87 72.88038 72.88038
 [71,] 98 75.13952 75.13952
 [72,] 71 78.79720 78.79720
 [73,] 82 77.54965 77.54965
 [74,] 87 78.26170 78.26170
 [75,] 87 79.65983 79.65983
 [76,] 92 80.83426 80.83426
 [77,] 74 82.62078 82.62078
 [78,] 68 81.24145 81.24145
 [79,] 93 79.12282 79.12282
 [80,] 87 81.34317 81.34317
 [81,] 91 82.24826 82.24826
 [82,] 81 83.64854 83.64854
 [83,] 97 83.22477 83.22477
 [84,] 99 85.42881 85.42881
 [85,] 87 87.60020 87.60020
 [86,] 92 87.50417 87.50417
 [87,] 96 88.22350 88.22350
 [88,] 78 89.46774 89.46774
 [89,] 77 87.63290 87.63290
 [90,] 98 85.93164 85.93164
 [91,] 68 87.86258 87.86258
 [92,] 97 84.68456 84.68456
 [93,] 75 86.65503 86.65503
 [94,] 70 84.79023 84.79023
 [95,] 77 82.42379 82.42379
 [96,] 61 81.55599 81.55599
 [97,] 63 78.26703 78.26703
 [98,] 61 75.82430 75.82430
 [99,] 66 73.45241 73.45241
 [100,] 67 72.26003 72.26003
 [101,] 60 71.41842 71.41842
 [102,] 73 69.59148 69.59148
 [103,] 100 70.13684 70.13684
 [104,] 60 74.91495 74.91495
 [105,] 60 72.52855 72.52855
 [106,] 94 70.52399 70.52399
 [107,] 83 74.28015 74.28015
 [108,] 88 75.67532 75.67532
 [109,] 96 77.64727 77.64727
 [110,] 66 80.58371 80.58371
 [111,] 89 78.25032 78.25032
 [112,] 97 79.97026 79.97026
 [113,] 76 82.69502 82.69502
 [114,] 91 81.62382 81.62382
 [115,] 93 83.12401 83.12401
 [116,] 98 84.70417 84.70417
 [117,] 65 86.83150 86.83150
 [118,] 68 83.33846 83.33846
 [119,] 64 80.88431 80.88431
 [120,] 70 78.18282 78.18282
 [121,] 60 76.87357 76.87357
 [122,] 99 74.17380 74.17380
 [123,] 94 78.14599 78.14599
 [124,] 80 80.68263 80.68263
 [125,] 95 80.57341 80.57341
 [126,] 71 82.88166 82.88166
 [127,] 99 80.98060 80.98060
 [128,] 91 83.86370 83.86370
 [129,] 87 85.00551 85.00551
 [130,] 61 85.32463 85.32463
 [131,] 64 81.43269 81.43269
 [132,] 94 78.64346 78.64346
 [133,] 82 81.10050 81.10050
 [134,] 98 81.24442 81.24442
 [135,] 62 83.92532 83.92532
 [136,] 92 80.41727 80.41727
 [137,] 84 82.27050 82.27050
 [138,] 65 82.54722 82.54722
 [139,] 100 79.73967 79.73967
 [140,] 64 82.98132 82.98132
 [141,] 80 79.94431 79.94431
 [142,] 74 79.95322 79.95322
 [143,] 80 79.00070 79.00070
 [144,] 96 79.16059 79.16059
 [145,] 86 81.85490 81.85490
 [146,] 91 82.51811 82.51811
 [147,] 61 83.87522 83.87522
 [148,] 97 80.21518 80.21518
 [149,] 83 82.90075 82.90075
 [150,] 79 82.91663 82.91663
 [151,] 63 82.28997 82.28997
 [152,] 87 79.20358 79.20358
 [153,] 78 80.45100 80.45100
 [154,] 80 80.05884 80.05884
 [155,] 81 80.04943 80.04943
 [156,] 61 80.20152 80.20152
 [157,] 97 77.12928 77.12928
 [158,] 85 80.30859 80.30859
 [159,] 89 81.05922 81.05922
 [160,] 97 82.32974 82.32974
 [161,] 94 84.67698 84.67698
 [162,] 94 86.16867 86.16867
 [163,] 91 87.42168 87.42168
 [164,] 64 87.99421 87.99421
 [165,] 87 84.15514 84.15514
 [166,] 68 84.61032 84.61032
 [167,] 84 81.95266 81.95266
 [168,] 88 82.28024 82.28024
 [169,] 77 83.19540 83.19540
 [170,] 78 82.20414 82.20414
 [171,] NA NA NA
 [172,] NA NA 64.00000
 [173,] NA NA 67.20000
 [174,] NA NA 66.36800
 [175,] NA NA 66.30912
 > ## membuat plot time series
 > ts.plot(data.adi, xlab="Periode", ylab="Jumlah Penjualan", main=
"Time Series Data Penjualan")
 > points (data.adi)
 >
 >
 > # Membuat plot gabungan dari data aktual, pemulusan, dan ramalan
 > plot(1:length(data.ses[, "aktual"]), data.ses[, "aktual"], type="l",
col="black", xlab="Periode", ylab="Penjualan", main="Time Series Data
Penjualan")
 > lines(1:length(data.ses[, "pemulusan"]), data.ses[, "pemulusan"],
col="green", lty=2)
 > lines(1:length(data.ses[, "ramalan"]), data.ses[, "ramalan"],
col="red", lty=2)
 >
 > # Menambahkan legenda
 > legend("topleft", legend=c("Data Aktual", "Pemulusan", "Ramalan"),
col=c("black", "green", "red"), lty=1:2)
 > ##Menghitung Nilai keakuratan MAD,MSE, MAPE
 > ##nilai error
 > error.ses <- data.ses[,1] - data.ses[,3]
 > error.ses
 [1] NA 20.00000000 -5.20000000 -0.36800000 20.69088000
0.38033920
 [7] -0.68051507 30.42836734 -1.44017143 -5.20974401 -12.37618496
8.60400463
 [13] -5.77263611 15.15098567 16.72682796 21.05053549 8.68244981
7.29325784
 [19] -17.87366341 15.98612273 6.42834309 -9.60019180 -15.06416111
7.34610467
 [25] 4.17072792 -2.49658855 5.90286562 4.95840712 -11.83493802
15.05865206
 [31] 8.64926773 -15.73461510 -17.21707669 16.53765558 -22.10836931
-14.57103022
 [37] 8.76033461 -1.64131892 -0.37870790 5.68188537 -8.22721629
9.08913832
 [43] 7.63487618 18.41329600 -12.53283136 -1.52757835 0.71683419
-16.39785928
 [49] -7.77420180 15.46967049 15.99452321 -19.56460050 19.56573558
9.43521789
 [55] -8.07441698 -20.78251026 -17.45730862 -15.66413924 9.84212304
3.26738335
 [61] -1.25539798 -6.05453431 1.91419118 14.60792059 -2.72934670
10.70734877
 [67] -7.00582703 -10.88489471 -14.14331155 14.11961829 22.86047937
-7.79719733
 [73] 4.45035424 8.73829756 7.34016995 11.16574276 -8.62077608
-13.24145191
 [79] 13.87718040 5.65683153 8.75173849 -2.64853967 13.77522668
13.57119041
 [85] -0.60020006 4.49583195 7.77649884 -11.46774097 -10.63290242
12.06836197
 [91] -19.86257595 12.31543620 -11.65503359 -14.79022821 -5.42379170
-20.55598503
 [97] -15.26702742 -14.82430304 -7.45241455 -5.26002822 -11.41842371
3.40852409
 [103] 29.86316023 -14.91494540 -12.52855414 23.47601452 8.71985220
12.32467585
 [109] 18.35272771 -14.58370872 10.74968467 17.02973513 -6.69502249
9.37618110
 [115] 9.87599213 13.29583339 -21.83149995 -15.33845996 -16.88430637
-8.18281735
 [121] -16.87356657 24.82620408 15.85401143 -0.68263040 14.42659046
-11.88166401
 [127] 18.01940223 7.13629787 1.99449021 -24.32462822 -17.43268771
15.35654233
 [133] 0.89949556 16.75557627 -21.92531594 11.58273461 1.72949708
-17.54722246
 [139] 20.26033314 -18.98132017 0.05569106 -5.95321951 0.99929561
16.83940831
 [145] 4.14510298 8.48188651 -22.87521533 16.78481912 0.09924806
-3.91663163
 [151] -19.28997057 7.79642472 -2.45100323 -0.05884272 0.95057212
-19.20151942
 [157] 19.87072369 4.69140790 7.94078263 14.67025741 9.32301623
7.83133363
 [163] 3.57832025 -23.99421099 2.84486277 -16.61031528 2.04733517
5.71976154
 [169] -6.19540030 -4.20413626 NA NA NA
NA
 [175] NA
 >
 > #MAD: mean absolute deviation
 > mad.ses <- mean(abs(error.ses), na.rm = T)
 > mad.ses
 [1] 11.02139
 >
 > #MSE: MEAN SQUARED ERROR
 > mse.ses <- mean(error.ses^2,na.rm= T)
 > mse.ses
 [1] 167.984
 >
 > ## MAPE
 > r.error.ses <-(error.ses/data.ses[,1])*100 # relative error
 > mape.ses <- mean(abs(r.error.ses), na.rm = T)
 > mape.ses
 [1] 14.22748
 >
 > #masukkan hasil ke dalam frame
 > data.frame("ukuran keakuratan" = c("MAD","MSE", "MAPE"),
 + "Nilai" = c(mad.ses,mse.ses,mape.ses))
 ukuran.keakuratan Nilai
 1 MAD 11.02139
 2 MSE 167.98399
 3 MAPE 14.22748