Received: 18 December 2023 Revised: 30 March 2024 Accepted: 17 April 2024

DOI: 10.1002/joc.8476

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Recent trends in agriculturally relevant climate in Central

America

Jennifer Nakamura 1 | Richard Seager 1 | Haibo Liu 1 | Fabien Cottier 2 |

Michael J. Puma 3,4 | David J. Wrathall 5 | Brian Katz 5 | Alex de Sherbinin 2 |
Susana B. Adamo 2

1
Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of
Columbia University, Palisades, New Abstract
York, USA This study examines the climatology and trends in climate in Guatemala,
2
Center for International Earth Science Honduras, and El Salvador over the past four decades, against the background
Information Network (CIESIN), Earth
of potential impacts on rainfed agriculture, livelihoods, and migration. The
Institute, Columbia University, Palisades,
New York, USA results show that there has been a significant warming of surface tempera-
3
Center for Climate Systems Research, tures, an earlier start to the monsoon, a drier and longer mid-summer drought,
Columbia University, New York, New and a delay in the second peak of precipitation from September to October.
York, USA
4
These changes have led to an increase in vapour pressure deficit (VPD) in
NASA Goddard Institute for Space
Studies, New York, New York, USA northern Guatemala and along the Pacific coast in winter. High VPD can stress
5
Department of Geography, plants and lead to reduced yields. The study also finds that the thresholds that
Environmental Sciences and Marine cause a decline in coffee yield have already been reached in El Salvador, but
Resource Management, Oregon State
University, Corvallis, Oregon, USA
the average VPD has also risen in Guatemala and Honduras over the past
42 years. Maize yields have also been negatively affected with an inverse rela-
Correspondence tionship with daily maximum temperatures during the summer flowering sea-
Jennifer Nakamura, Lamont Doherty
Earth Observatory of Columbia son. Observed changes and trends in these climate factors are believed to have
University, Palisades, New York, USA. direct implications for crop yields and livelihoods, potentially driving shifts in
Email: jennie@ldeo.columbia.edu
migration patterns.
Funding information
KEYWORDS
U.S. Department of Defense
agrometeorology, climate, humidity, monsoon, rainfall, tropics

1 | INTRODUCTION highland regions, including portions of countries such as

Central America, a region that extends from Belize to
Panama, is characterized by a tropical monsoonal cli-
mate. An extended winter dry season occurs in the period
between the retreat and the onset of the monsoon. There
are many complexities to the precipitation pattern across
Central America due to topography and proximity to
water bodies. Spanning the western lowland and inland
Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Nicaragua, exists
a geographic area with a population of around 23 million
people (CIESIN, 2018) commonly referred to as the Cen-
tral America Dry Corridor (CADC). This contrasts with
extensive lowland tropical broadleaf forests in Northern
Guatemala, and the Caribbean coast of Honduras
and Nicaragua, dominated by smallholder agriculture
and large conservation areas, comprising the

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© 2024 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Meteorological Society.

Int J Climatol. 2024;44:2701–2724. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/joc 2701

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2702 NAKAMURA ET AL.

(a) (b)

(c) (d)

(e) (f)

F I G U R E 1 (a) Central America topography and bathymetry in meters showing land elevation and ocean or sea depth. Pacific Ocean to
the west and the Caribbean Sea to the east. Countries are outlined in black. The southern portion of Mexico is on the top left side of the
map. The study area includes Guatemala, south of Mexico primarily with a Pacific coastline. Honduras, on the southeast border of
Guatemala, primarily with a Caribbean coastline, and El Salvador on the southwest border of Guatemala, adjacent to the Pacific Ocean,
between Guatemala and Honduras. (b–e) Monthly climatology 1980–2021, area averaged over the countries in the study region.
(b) Precipitation in mm/month from University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit (CRU) version 4.06. (c) Temperature in
C from CRU
version 4.06. (d) Vapour pressure deficit in kPa from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA5) in solid lines
and Climate Lab at Sierra Nevada Research Institute (TerraClimate) in dashed. (e) Vapour pressure in kPa from ERA5 (solid) and
TerraClimate (dashed). (f) 700 hPa vertical velocity from ERA5 in m2/s2 with negative values indicating upward motion.

NAKAMURA ET AL.
Meso-American Biological Corridor (MBC). In general,
agricultural and livelihood patterns associated with these
regions are distinct, with smallholder agriculture domi-
nating in the dry corridor (Pons, 2021) and large-scale
industrialized agriculture and cattle ranching concen-
trated in areas receiving greater precipitation. Small-
holder coffee production is most prevalent where dry and
wet areas converge.
Over the preceding decade, the CADC has been
afflicted by the most severe droughts witnessed in
decades, resulting in disruption for over 1.3 million sub-
sistence agriculturists and labourers, predominantly com-
prising marginalized Indigenous populations, causing
substantial livelihood losses, marked instances of acute
food insecurity, and prompting adjustments in their
migratory behaviours (Anderson et al., 2023; Linke
et al., 2023; Pons, 2021; Stringer et al., 2021). The primary
migrant-sending countries of Central America and the
CADC to the US/Mexico border are Guatemala,
Honduras, and El Salvador (Angelo, 2021; Young, 2021).
Within the prevailing atmospheric circulation charac-
terized by easterly trade winds, the influx of moist air from
the Caribbean Sea encounters elevated terrain (Figure 1a)
creating a rain shadow on the western Pacific leeward side
in the CADC (Trewartha, 1981, p. 74). Quesada-Hernandez
et al. (2019) defined the CADC meteorologically using sev-
eral drought indices and a ratio of potential evaporation to
precipitation that changes during normal, dry, and wet
years. The brown regions (lower than 14 g/kg) of the
monthly climatology of surface specific humidity in
Figure S1 illustrate the more arid regions. Due to the agri-
cultural focus of this study, we adopted the Food and Agri-
culture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)'s
definition of the Central American Dry Corridor (CADC)
as it considers geographical, climatic, natural resource,
socioeconomic, and institutional aspects characterizing the
region in Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras. This defi-
nition aligns well with the highland areas (Figure 1a) and
areas west of the highlands (van der Zee Arias et al., 2012).
In the three highest migrant-sending countries of
Central America, agriculture remains an important part
of the economy. In 2021, agriculture accounted for 15.5%
of GDP and 24.8% of the labour force in Honduras, 15.3%
of GDP and 15.3% of labour in El Salvador, and 9.4% of
GDP and 29.7% of labour in Guatemala (World
Bank, 2023). These figures indicate that relative to
El Salvador, larger proportions of the population in
Honduras and Guatemala consist of rural farm workers.
Livelihoods are heavily dependent on two major crops:
maize is a principal staple crop in the region going back
centuries (Kennett et al., 2020), while coffee is a major
cash crop (Avelino et al., 2015). At the same time as the
CADC drought, increasingly wet monsoons and devastat-
ing tropical cyclones have contributed to flooding
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2703
that has been detrimental to rural livelihoods
(CARE International, 2020). In popular media
(Lustgarten, 2020), and some academic literature (Linke
et al., 2023; Pons, 2021), a link has been made between
the impacts of climate change and variability in the
northern triangle countries of Guatemala, Honduras, and
El Salvador, and the migration of rural inhabitants to dif-
ferent regions or beyond national borders, sometimes
referred to as climate migrants, with a significant number
undertaking perilous journeys through Central America
in route to the United States (IFAD, 2021).
Since changing agricultural livelihoods may play a
role in migration, it is important to determine how the
region's climate has affected livelihood prospects. Migra-
tion in the region is, however, also attributed to other key
challenges facing Central American societies including
poverty, inequality, and violence (de la Rosa, 2023;
Swanson & Torres, 2016). Widely cited factors include
macro-economic changes such as inflation and commod-
ity prices (Ruiz-de-Oña et al., 2019), demographic
changes including a “youth bulge” in Central America
(Clemens, 2021), violence and narcotics trafficking
(Clemens, 2021; Swanson & Torres, 2016), and evolving
social networks of diaspora communities (Clemens, 2017;
Glover et al., 2001; Lorenzen, 2017). Also contributing to
migration are the significant environmental challenges
affecting the region, such as deforestation, colonization
of the agricultural frontier within the region, hydrologic
interventions, both rural and urban (Bnamericas, 2019;
Vidal, 2017), and the intersections of these processes with
climate change (IPCC, 2023; Wrathall et al., 2020).
Over time, the typical international migrant from Cen-
tral America has changed from single, working-age males
to entire families and unaccompanied minors (Linke
et al., 2023). The Washington Post (2023) reported that
families, the current largest demographic migrant group
crossing the US/Mexico border, reached an unprecedented
high in August of 2023, even in the brutal summer heat
(Miroff & Sacchetti, 2023). The humanitarian crisis of fam-
ilies at the border and the possible role of climate in
influencing migration prompted us to examine recent cli-
mate trends in Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador,
which exert an influence on agricultural yields.
There is consensus in the literature that climate
change is impacting rural Central American livelihoods.
Harvey et al. (2018) studied climate change impacts on
smallholder farmers and found that nearly all surveyed
smallholder farmers (95%) have observed manifestations
of climate change, and a substantial majority are pres-
ently contending with the repercussions of rising temper-
atures and changing precipitation patterns on
agricultural yields, pests, and diseases, with impacts on
economic prospects, and, in select instances, the stability
of food supplies. A significant proportion of maize

2704
farmers (87%) and coffee cultivators (66%) have docu-
mented adverse effects of climate change on their crop
productivity, while approximately a third (32%) of all
smallholder farmers have reported instances of food inse-
curity after occurrences of extreme climatic events
(Harvey et al., 2018). The recent Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change Assessment Report 6 (IPCC AR6) syn-
thesis report indicates medium confidence of adverse
impacts, due to human-induced climate change, on agri-
culture/crop production for a combined area of Central
and South America (IPCC, 2023). Cavazos et al. (2019)
investigated the trends in temperature and precipitation in
Central America from 1980 to 2010. They found in obser-
vations significant annual and summer and winter season
positive trends in temperature, and negative trends in pre-
cipitation for Guatemala (DJF), Honduras (JJA and DJF),
and El Salvador (DJF) at the 0.05 level. Studies using
model projections indicate increasing aridification of the
CADC in the next century (Depsky & Pons, 2020).
This study aims to provide a comprehensive, up-to-
date, quantitative assessment of changes in climate
drivers influencing the livelihoods of potential migrants
in Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador over the past
decades. This study expands the time period of the assess-
ment by Cavazos et al. (2019) through 2021, examines
monthly trends, and crucially conducts a systematic anal-
ysis of variables important to crop yields such as moisture
fluxes, heights, vertical motions, vapour pressure deficit,
daily maximum temperatures, pressure, and surface
moisture. In examining trends, this work may also con-
tribute to the understanding of current anthropogenically
induced climate change in a region of the world where
the IPCC's recent synthesis report indicates a low level of
confidence for changes in heavy precipitation and limited
agreement on changes in drought (IPCC, 2023).
Section 2 describes the climate and crop data used and
the method of the analysis, focusing on two significant
crops: coffee, a crucial cash crop, and maize, a staple grain.
Section 3 presents the results, while Section 4 includes the
discussion and conclusions, featuring an application to
migration modelling. If temperatures rise, monsoons
change patterns, and country-averaged vapour pressure
deficits increase in Central America, then rural agricul-
tural yields will decrease, and livelihoods may be lost.
2 | DATA AND METHODS
2.1 | Climate reanalysis and
observed data
Several monthly climate datasets were used to analyse
the climatology and trends of Central American climate
for the period 1980–2021.
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NAKAMURA ET AL.
We selected the University of East Anglia Climatic
Research Unit and Met Office (CRU) version 4.06 as the
representative precipitation dataset, and it was also used
for monthly surface temperature. This dataset,
available from https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/
cru_ts_4.06/, offers data at a 0.5
resolution (Harris
et al., 2013). For comparison, three other monthly precip-
itation datasets were examined.
First, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin-
istration (NOAA)/National Weather Service Climate Pre-
diction Centre (CPC) Unified Gauge-Based Analysis of
Global Precipitation Data, available from https://iridl.
ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.NOAA/.NCEP/.CPC/.
UNIFIED_PRCP/.GAUGE_BASED/.GLOBAL/.v1p0/.
Monthly/.extREALTIME/.rain/#info at a 0.5
resolu-
tion (Chen et al., 2008; Chen, Shi, et al., 2008; Xie
et al., 2007). Second, the National Oceanic and Atmo-
spheric Administration Global Precipitation Climatology
Centre (GPCC) version v2020 appended with monitoring
data at 1
resolution available from https://psl.noaa.gov/
data/gridded/data.gpcc.html (Becker et al., 2013;
Schneider et al., 2016; Schneider et al., 2017). Finally, the
Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Informa-
tion using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud classification
System-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CCS-CDR) at a
0.04
resolution available from https://chrsdata.eng.uci.
edu (Ashouri et al., 2015; Nguyen et al., 2019; Sadeghi
et al., 2021). The CRU and CPC Unified precipitation had
similar climatological patterns but differed in their trend
patterns. However, a higher degree of agreement was
found for both climatology and precipitation trends
between CRU, GPCC, and PERSIANN-CCS-CDR
datasets.
Vertically integrated vapour flux came from the
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
reanalysis (ERA5) version 5 available from https://cds.
climate.copernicus.eu/#!/home at a 0.25
resolution
(Hersbach et al., 2018). Climatology and trends of verti-
cally integrated vapour flux were confirmed with the
National Aeronautics and Space Administration Modern-
ERA Retrospective analysis for Research and Applica-
tions version 2 (MERRA-2) dataset available from
https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets?project=MERRA-2 at
a 0.5
resolution in latitude and 0.625
in longitude
(Gelaro et al., 2017). ERA5 was chosen as the representa-
tive vertically integrated vapour flux dataset and used for
monthly 2-m temperature and dewpoint which were used
to calculate vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and surface
specific humidity (q) (in Section 2.3), 700 hPa vertical
velocity, heights at 700 and 850 hPa, and surface pressure
used in the q calculation.
Monthly VPD was also sourced from the Climate Lab
at Sierra Nevada Research Institute (TerraClimate) avail-
able at https://www.climatologylab.org/terraclimate.html

NAKAMURA ET AL.
at a 0.04
resolution (Abatzoglou et al., 2018). TerraCli-
mate VPD uses a daily average of the saturated vapour
pressure at maximum and minimum temperatures and
the mean daily actual vapour pressure (Kath et al., 2022).
Two sources of VPD were used. The monthly ERA5 VPD
potentially gives an underestimate of climate influence
on crops due to averaging over the daily scale. TerraCli-
mate, computed from daily data, potentially gives an
overestimate of climate influence on crops due to the
diurnal transpiration cycle and photosynthesis (Kukal &
Irmak, 2023). The crop warming threshold (CWT),
defined in Section 2.4, was computed from daily surface
maximum temperature anomalies with respect to 1950–
1980, from Berkeley Earth available at https://
berkeleyearth.org/data/ at a 1
resolution (Rohde
et al., 2013; Rohde & Hausfather, 2020).
2.2 | Land and crop data
Topography and bathymetry are from NOAA's ETOPO5
5 × 5 min Navy database available from http://iridl.ldeo.
columbia.edu/SOURCES/.WORLDBATH/.bath/ at a
0.08
resolution. Crop data were analysed from two
sources. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations (FAOSTAT) maize and coffee yields are available
from https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data at a monthly
resolution (FAO, 1997), and the United States Depart-
ment of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Produc-
tion, Supply, and Distribution (USDA PSD) maize yield
and coffee production available from https://apps.fas.
usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/home also at a
monthly resolution (USDA, 2014). Harvested area
fractions of coffee and maize are from EARTHSTAT
available from http://www.earthstat.org/harvested-area-
yield-175-crops/ as a single map for a 1997 to 2003 aver-
age (Monfreda et al., 2008).
2.3 | ERA5 vapour pressure deficit and
specific humidity
Monthly ERA5 2-m temperature (T) and dewpoint (Td),
both in K, were used to calculate a monthly vapour pres-
sure deficit (VPD) in kPa, by Tetens' formula, the rela-
tionship between temperature and the partial pressure of
water vapour,
VPD =es − ea ð1Þ
es =0:61078 eð17:2694 T −35:86 Þ
T − 273:16
ð2Þ
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2705


T −273:16
17:2694 Td
d − 35:86
ea = 0:61078 e ð3Þ
where es is saturated vapour pressure and ea is the actual
vapour pressure both in units of kPa (Bolton, 1980).
ERA5 actual vapour pressure (3) in kPa and surface
pressure (sp) in Pa are used to calculate specific humidity
(q) in g/kg as in Laure (2020)
0:622ea
q=    ð4Þ
sp + 0:378 1000
ea
2.4 | Crop warming threshold
Berkely Earth daily surface maximum temperature
anomalies (Ta), with respect to 1950–1980, were used to
calculate the monthly crop warming threshold (CWT) a
daily marker (d) averaged over the month:
1 X
days
T a <1 C,d =0


CWT= d,where
ð5Þ
days 1 T a ≥1 C,d =1
where days is the number of days in the month, CWT is
in units of fraction of a month the daily maximum tem-
perature anomaly is 1
C and over.
2.5 | Climatology and trends
Climatology is a long-term mean, necessitating no less
than three decades to ensure precision in the derived
averages. In our study, we adopted a duration of 42 years,
spanning from 1980 to 2021, based on the available data
sources. Within this framework, the climatological
assessment of a specific month, such as January, is con-
ducted by the computation of the collective mean of all
Januarys within the timeframe.
Trends, in this study, refer to linear trends calcu-
lated by a straight line fitted by linear least squares
through time calculated at every point. Positive trend
coefficients indicate increasing values of the variable
over time, while negative coefficients indicate decreas-
ing values. The magnitude of the coefficients indicates
the rate of change over 42 years. Trend significance is
calculated by critical values of the Student's t-test for
a two-tailed distribution, at the 0.1 significance level,
and is indicated by small dot hatching on trend
figures.

2706
2.6 | Crop data
Sardo et al. (2023) report the Central American food sys-
tem to be heavily dependent on rainfed agriculture,
where the bulk of local dietary requirements is met
through domestic cereal grain production, an over-
whelming majority of which is maize, while the primary
source of income is derived from seasonal coffee reve-
nues. Therefore, coffee and maize were selected as a
focus for the climate impacts on agriculture in Central
America.
2.6.1 | Coffee
Kath et al. (2022) found vapour pressure deficit (VPD)
during fruit maturation to be a critical determinant of
worldwide coffee productivity, with yield sharply decreas-
ing beyond 0.82 kPa. This vapour pressure level suggests
a crop sensitive to climate conditions. In greenhouse
experiments, where temperature and humidity are con-
trolled, crops perform best within a vapour pressure
range of 0.8 to 0.92 kPa (Shamshiri & Ismail, 2014). They
show optimal growth at or above 0.82 kPa, instead of
experiencing a yield decline at this level. VPD typically
decreases with elevation. Lower temperatures lead to
lower saturation vapour pressures, which in turn
decrease the VPD. Currently, coffee is grown at 400–
2000 m in the study area where VPD is lower than at sea
level (Ovalle-Rivera et al., 2015). Future model studies
predicted 2050 global warming to increase the coffee pro-
duction to 800–2500 m over the region (Ovalle-Rivera
et al., 2015) and over 1000 m in Eastern and Southern
Guatemala (Haggar & Schepp, 2011). Ovalle-Rivera et al.
note the lower elevation of El Salvador means it will be
more impacted than Guatemala or Honduras which will
gain coffee cultivation suitability areas at 1500–2500 m.
The supplemental information table S2 of Kath et al.
(2022) indicated the fruit maturation period/growing sea-
son for Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador (also
Nicaragua and Costa Rica) as the 9 months of June
through the following February after an April–May flow-
ering season.
The growing season threshold (VPDT) was calculated
for the two monthly VPD datasets of ERA5-derived and
TerraClimate by:
1 X
months
VPD<0:82 kPa, m =0
VPDT = m, where
months 1 VPD≥0:82 kPa, m =1
ð6Þ
where m is the monthly marker and months is the
9 months June through February. EARTHSTAT
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NAKAMURA ET AL.
fractional harvest area for coffee was used to identify cof-
fee growing areas of 0.1% and higher as in Anderson
et al., 2018. This was then used as a mask for the two
VPDT datasets. The VPDT is then spatially area averaged
over areas of coffee production for each of the study
countries for 1980–2021 (the first one being June 1979 to
February 1980). Finally, it is converted into the percent
of months times area that VPDT is exceeded.
Coffee production from USDA PSD and coffee yield
from FAOSTAT were collected and processed with a But-
terworth filter to remove the 10-year low-frequency
increase due to agricultural advances and better isolate
the impacts of climate variability. The 10-year window
allows for the removal of a non-uniformly varying tempo-
ral trend in innovations, as opposed to a uniform linear
trend. The high pass (HP) production and yield were
obtained by subtracting out the 10-year low pass (LP):
HP Yield= Original Yield −LP Yield ð7Þ
Kath et al. (2022) also found that coffee yield was
strongest correlated with a 2-year average, including the
previous year, as Arabica coffee has a 2-year productivity
cycle (larger harvest followed by smaller harvest cycle).
All coffee production and yields are 2-year averaged
before correlation with climate variables.
2.6.2 | Maize
Anderson et al. (2018) determined the sensitivity to heat
stress for maize was highest during the flowering June–
August season in the Mexico area. EARTHSTAT frac-
tional harvest area for maize was used to identify maize
growing areas of 0.1% and higher. This was then used as
a mask for the CWT dataset and area-averaged over the
study countries in areas of maize production 1980–2021
for the flowering season and individual months of the
season. The 10-year low pass for agricultural advances is
removed by (7) as in Section 2.6.1.
3 | RESULTS
3.1 | Climatology
3.1.1 | Precipitation
The CRU precipitation climatology, area averaged over
the study countries in mm/month, is shown in Figure 1b.
The winter/spring dry season lasts from November to
April and the summer/fall wet season from May
to October, typical of a monsoonal climate. There is a
peak of monsoon precipitation in June, a dip in July, and
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NAKAMURA ET AL. 2707

F I G U R E 2 Monthly climatology 1980–2021 of precipitation (colours) in mm/month from University of East Anglia Climate Research
Unit (CRU) version 4.06 and vertically integrated vapour flux (vectors) in kg/m/s from the fifth version of the European Centre for Medium-
Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA5). A scale vector of 100 kg/m/s is in the bottom right of each month's plot. The colour scale
ranges from grey at zero, to brown, light brown, light blue, light green, and darker greens for high values.

a stronger rebound peak in the fall. The dip is known as
the mid-summer drought or ‘canícula’ (Karnauskas &
Curtis, 2016; Maurer et al., 2022). The climatological
North Atlantic subtropical high is strongest and the west-
ern flank is at the most southern position in July (see
Figure S2, July). The geostrophic flow around the sub-
tropical high intensifies the easterly winds, strengthening
the Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ), which is linked to
dryness in the region through moisture flux divergence
(Martin & Schumacher, 2011). The strength of the CLLJ
has been linked to the difference in sea surface tempera-
tures (SSTs) between the tropical North Atlantic and
Pacific, that is, a warmer Pacific leads to a stronger CLLJ
and more CADA drying (Corrales-Suastegui et al., 2022;
Fuentes-Franco et al., 2015). Also, local land surface
properties can impact the intensity of the mid-summer
drought primarily through moisture advection changes
(Corrales-Suastegui et al., 2022). The second peak in the
fall is enhanced by tropical disturbances from the North
Atlantic Ocean (Trewartha, 1981, p. 82). The climatologi-
cal monsoon is driven by the solar declination, which
progresses northward to the Tropic of Cancer in Mexico
by the summer solstice, and southward to the Tropic of
Capricorn in South America by the winter solstice. With
a delay for atmospheric adjustment, this passage is asso-
ciated with latitude shifts in convective instability and
precipitation, and the position and the strength of the
subtropical highs and CLLJ. The overall impact, over the
long-term average, is an intensification of precipitation in
June on the northward pass, and again in September on
the southward retreat, with a drier period in between,
though detailed timings are influenced locally by regional
and remote SSTs, topography, and land cover.
The monthly climatology of CRU precipitation in
mm/month and ERA5 vertically integrated vapour flux
(VIVF) in kg/m/s are shown as maps in Figure 2. VIVF is
the total water vapour transported through a vertical col-
umn of the atmosphere over a given area. Moisture in the

2708
F I G U R E 3 Monthly climatology 1980–2021 of near-surface temperature (colours) in
C from University of East Anglia Climate
Research Unit (CRU) version 4.06. The colour scale ranges from low values in dark blue, to light blue, green, yellow, orange, red, and high
values in bright pink.
atmosphere is evaporated from the surface and is mostly
confined to the lower troposphere. Therefore, the vertically
integrated vapour flux (VIVF), which is calculated over
the entire atmospheric column, primarily represents flux
in the lower half of the atmosphere. During the dry season
of November to April, precipitation is confined to the
Caribbean coast due to the orographic lifting of moist east-
erly trade winds that occur primarily in the winter. The
monsoon begins in the southern portion of Central Amer-
ica in May when the VIVF shifts to southeasterly, and pre-
cipitation reaches the research area, from the Pacific to
Caribbean coasts, in June. July and August have less pre-
cipitation and an eastward shift in VIVF, with some diver-
gence over Honduras. September brings back the wetter
southeasterly VIVF and enhanced precipitation.
3.1.2 | Temperature
The CRU surface temperature climatology for the study
countries, area-averaged in
C, is presented in Figure 1c.
The temperature peaks in April for El Salvador and May
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NAKAMURA ET AL.
for Guatemala and Honduras, with the monsoon precipi-
tation slightly reducing summer temperatures. The
monthly climatology of CRU surface temperature maps
in
C is shown in Figure 3. As expected, on average,
southern areas are warmer than northern, and the sea-
sonal cycle follows the usual progression from cooler fall
and winter to warmer spring and summer, but in all sea-
sons, there is a strong impact of elevation (Figure 1a).
Temperature, like precipitation (Figure 2), is heavily
topographically dependent. The highest peaks in the
Guatemala interior highlands are the coldest in the study
area. Even in the winter, the western coastal Pacific low-
lands are warmed by subsidence drying. And also, possi-
bly, by the warm North Equatorial Counter Current
(Jokisch, 2023, p. 18).
3.1.3 | Vapour pressure deficit and vapour
pressure
The ERA5-derived (solid) and TerraClimate (dashed)
vapour pressure deficit (VPD) climatology for the study
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NAKAMURA ET AL. 2709

F I G U R E 4 Monthly climatology 1980–2021 of vapour pressure deficit (VPD) in kPa, computed from monthly 2-m temperature and
dewpoint from the fifth version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA5). The colour scale ranges
from low values in dark blue, to light blue, green, yellow, orange, red, and high values in bright pink.

countries, area-averaged in kPa, is presented in countries, area-averaged in m2 s−2, presented in

Figure 1d.
The VPD peaks in March for El Salvador and April
for Guatemala and Honduras.
VPD (Equation 1), has both a temperature (es,
Equation 2) and moisture component (ea, Equation 3),
with hotter and drier conditions giving higher VPD.
If sufficient water is available in soils, evapotranspi-
ration increases with a higher VPD because of the
increased potential for water to evaporate or tran-
spire into the atmosphere. The climatological VPD
rises through the dry season first as vapour pressure
decreases (Figure 1e) and then as temperature
increases (Figure 1c). VPD decreases rapidly at the
onset wet season as vapour pressure increases,
slightly rebounds during the mid-summer drought,
and then decreases further as vapour pressure
increases and temperature declines due to precipita-
tion and the associated cloudiness. The ERA5
700 hPa vertical velocity climatology for the study
Figure 1f, exhibits an inverse relationship with pre-
cipitation in Figure 1a and the actual vapour pres-
sure in Figure 1e. Upward motion is indicated by
values above zero, which occurs from April to
November signifying low-level moisture convergence,
while downward motion is indicated by values below
zero, which occurs from December to March.
The monthly climatology map of ERA5-derived
VPD in kPa is shown in Figure 4 and of TerraClimate
VPD in Figure 5. Strikingly VPD does not follow the
same seasonal cycle as temperature, as would be the
case if relative humidity was fixed. Instead, there is
high VPD along the Pacific coast and in the Yucatan
in winter and spring including northern Guatemala,
areas in which the climatological temperature
(Figure 3) was high. Lower VPD is observed in the
summer and fall. Greater topographical detail is seen
in the higher resolution TerraClimate, showing ele-
vated regions of Guatemala (Figure 1a) with a lower

2710
F I G U R E 5 Monthly climatology 1980–2021 of vapour pressure deficit (VPD) in kPa from the Climate Lab at Sierra Nevada Research
Institute (TerraClimate, a land-only dataset). The colour scale ranges from low values in dark blue, to light blue, green, yellow, orange, red,
and high values in bright pink.
VPD in the summer, fall, and winter. As in the time
series of Figure 1, higher values of VPD in the clima-
tological pattern are a combination of high es or tem-
peratures (Figure 3), and lower ea or specific humidity
(Figure S1).
3.1.4 | Crop warming threshold
The monthly climatology of Crop Warming Threshold
(CWT), defined in Section 2.4, with units of the frac-
tion of the month the daily maximum temperature
anomaly is 1
C and over is shown in Figure 6. As a
monthly climatology of an anomaly with respect to an
earlier period (1950–1980), all values over 0 indicate
warming of daily maximum temperatures in the later
period (1980–2021), with warmer colours showing
more comparative warming such as December to
February in Honduras, and northern Guatemala in
February.
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NAKAMURA ET AL.
3.2 | Trends
3.2.1 | Precipitation
Monthly trends over 1980–2021 of precipitation (colours)
in mm/month per 42 years, with small dot hatching
added where statistically significant, and vertically inte-
grated vapour flux (VIVF, vectors) in kg/m/s per 42 years
are shown in Figure 7. During May, we find increased
low-level flow from the southeast in both the Caribbean
Sea and the Pacific Ocean and a wetter Guatemala imply-
ing an earlier start to the monsoon. The counterclockwise
flow of the VIVF in May in the Pacific is associated with
a trend towards low pressure. July, the month of the mid-
summer drought, has become starkly drier and the VIVF
shows the clockwise winds of a high-pressure trend
centred over the study region likely inducing descent and
suppressing precipitation. Rauscher et al. (2008), in a
modelling study of 21st-century climate change, identi-
fied a feature like this with a westward movement and
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NAKAMURA ET AL. 2711

F I G U R E 6 Monthly climatology 1980–2021 of crop warming threshold (CWT) in a fraction of a month the daily maximum temperature
anomaly is 1
C and over, derived from the 1950–1980 daily maximum temperature anomalies from Berkely Earth. Colours and contours
every 0.1 fraction of a month. The colour scale ranges from low values in dark blue, to light blue, light green, beige, yellow, orange, and high
values in red.

intensification of the North Atlantic subtropical high
from June to July. September, the month of the second
monsoon peak, is drier than usual, but October is wetter.
This suggests that the second peak of precipitation in
Guatemala is shifting later into the fall. In October, there
is counterclockwise flow over the Yucatan, indicating a
low-pressure trend likely favouring ascent and increased
precipitation over the study region. June, August,
November, January, March, and April do not have signif-
icant trends in precipitation while December and
February which are already climatologically dry are fur-
ther significantly drying.
3.2.2 | 700 hPa vertical velocity and heights
The circulations present in the trend of VIVF in Figure 7
indicate regional pressure trends, thereby prompting an
examination of local heights and associated vertical
velocity patterns. Figure 8 shows monthly trends over
1980–2021 of 700 hPa vertical pressure velocity (colour)
in Pa/s per 42 years, with small dot hatching added
where statistically significant, and 700 hPa heights (con-
tours) in m2 s−2 per 42 years. Vertical pressure velocity is
shown in colour, with warmer colours indicating subsi-
dence and cooler colours indicating ascent. To place
these local trends in hemispheric context, trends in
850 hPa heights, in m2 s−2 per 42 years, showing trends
in the positioning of the Pacific and Atlantic subtropical
highs are presented in Figure S3, indicating significant
large-scale locally higher heights in every month except
August, October, and November in the study region. May
is characterized by a trend towards low pressure in the
Pacific Ocean and with southerly ascending flow over
the study area. Locally higher pressure centred over Cen-
tral America in June and July, with the northward extent
of the high pressure peaking in July, drives subsidence
and the trend towards a deeper mid-summer drought.
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2712 NAKAMURA ET AL.

F I G U R E 7 Monthly trend 1980–2021 of precipitation (colours) in mm/month per 42 years from University of East Anglia Climate
Research Unit (CRU) version 4.06 and vertically integrated vapour flux (vectors) in kg/m/s per 42 years from the fifth version of the
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA5). A scale vector of 100 kg/m/s per 42 years is in the bottom right
of each month's plot. Small dot hatching over land indicates a significant trend in precipitation to the 0.1 level. The colour scale ranges from
low, dry, values in dark brown, to light brown, white, light green, and high, wet, values in dark green.

October has a closed contour low over the upper
Yucatan, also present at 850 hPa (Figure S3, Oct),
and extending over northern Guatemala. South of
the low, southwesterly flow and ascent bring
increased precipitation to Guatemala and a later sec-
ond peak of the monsoon. November and January
have striking and significant trends towards subsi-
dence in the CADC.
3.2.3 | Temperature
Figure 9 shows the monthly trends in near-surface
temperature (
C per 42 years) over 1980–2021, with
small dot hatching indicating significant trends. Near-
surface temperatures have risen significantly over this
period such that no areas or months have cooled. The
northern region of the study area has experienced the
strongest warming, with brief periods of less intense
warming in May, June, and November. There does
seem to be an inverse relation between warming and
precipitation trends (Figure 7). For example, the
strong warming in July in Guatemala, Honduras, and
El Salvador occurs during the intensification of the
mid-summer drought.
In contrast, the limited warming in June comes with
generally increased precipitation or little change.
Reduced precipitation results in a change in the surface
energy balance, leading to decreased cooling through
evapotranspiration and increased sensible and longwave
fluxes, consequently raising surface temperatures. Addi-
tionally, reduced precipitation will lead to less cloud
cover, which will increase the downward surface solar
radiation.
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NAKAMURA ET AL. 2713

F I G U R E 8 Monthly trend 1980–2021 of 700 hPa vertical velocity (colour) in Pa/s per 42 years and heights (contours) in m2/s2 per
42 years from the fifth version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA5). Small dot hatching
indicates a significant trend to the 0.1 level of the 700 hPa vertical velocity trend. The colour scale ranges from low values in dark blue, to
light blue, light green, beige, yellow, orange, and high values in red.

3.2.4 | Vapour pressure deficit and specific
humidity
Monthly trends over 1980–2021 of vapour pressure deficit
(VPD) in kPa per 42 years are shown for ERA5-derived
in, Figure 10 and TerraClimate in Figure 11, with small
dot hatching indicating statistically significant trends.
VPD increases are stronger and more widespread in both
data sets than decreases. The ERA5-derived vapour pres-
sure deficit (VPD) exhibits a strong increase along the
Pacific coast from December to March and slightly inland
in April and July, while the TerraClimate Pacific coast
increases occur in February and March and in July. Both
ERA5-derived and TerraClimate VPD have positive
trends in northern Guatemala every month, with the
strongest increases occurring in the spring (March to
May) and during the mid-summer drought (July
to August). The differences between the two datasets
along the coast may be due to the different time scales
over which they are calculated (monthly for ERA5 and
daily for TerraClimate). Temperature trends (Figure 9) do
not show a coastal feature, but the monthly trend of spe-
cific humidity in g/kg over the period 1980–2021
(Figure S4) does show drier conditions along the coast,
especially in March, which would increase VPD. While
the specific humidity trends here are not statistically sig-
nificant, given the warming and increasing atmospheric
water holding capacity, the default expectation would be
for rising humidity. Hence the decline, while not statisti-
cally significant, is physically significant.
3.2.5 | Crop warming threshold
The monthly trends of the crop warming
threshold (CWT) over the period 1980–2021, expressed as
the change per 42 years in the fraction of a month when
the daily maximum temperature anomaly exceeds 1
C,
are shown in Figure 12. Small dot hatching indicates sta-
tistical significance. While CWT is generally increasing
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2714 NAKAMURA ET AL.

F I G U R E 9 Monthly trend 1980–2021 of near-surface temperature (colours) in
C per 42 years from University of East Anglia Climate
Research Unit (CRU) version 4.06. Small dot hatching indicates a significant trend to the 0.1 level. The colour scale ranges from low values
in dark blue, to light blue, light green, beige, yellow, orange, and high values in red.

across months and locations, one exception is in May
when CWT is decreasing in Guatemala, El Salvador, and
Honduras. This corresponds with the trend of the mon-
soon starting earlier (Figure 7, May) with likely increased
evaporative cooling of the surface preventing warming.
In contrast, September CWT increased along with the
delay of the second peak of the monsoon (Figure 7, Sep).
CWT increases across Central America during the
mid-summer drought. Honduras, in the fall and winter,
stands out as a location and time where the warming of
CWT has been stronger than in other countries and
seasons.
3.3 | Crops
3.3.1 | Coffee
Figure 13 shows the percent of month-area of each
country in the study region, for (a) El Salvador,
(b) Guatemala, and (c) Honduras, that exceeded the
threshold of vapour pressure deficit (VPD 0.82 kPa)
for significant yield decline for coffee during the
growing and fruit development season (June through
February) for 1980–2021 where the EARTHSTAT frac-
tional harvest area for coffee was 0.1% and higher.
El Salvador (Figure 13a) is already high in VPD over
the entire period due to the low moisture induced by
rain shadow and subsidence. TerraClimate (blue)
shows an increase for El Salvador (a) although this
might be influenced by a few large values around
2020. In contrast, Guatemala for both datasets
(Figure 13b) and Honduras for TerraClimate (blue,
Figure 13c) are experiencing an increasing frequency
of climatic conditions that have been shown to reduce
the yield of the coffee cash crop over the period
1980–2021. When VPD is calculated on the daily scale
(blue) it shows larger values than ERA5-derived
(black) over the whole period, perhaps due to the
daily versus monthly data input difference. Honduras
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NAKAMURA ET AL. 2715

F I G U R E 1 0 Monthly trend 1980–2021 of vapour pressure deficit (VPD) in kPa per 42 years, computed from monthly 2-m temperature
and dewpoint from the fifth version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA5). Small dot hatching
indicates a significant trend to the 0.1 level. The colour scale ranges from low values in dark blue, to light blue, light green, beige, yellow,
orange, and high values in red.

(c) shows more year-to-year variability than
Guatemala (b) in both datasets.
The USDA PSD's 2-year and country-averaged time
series of coffee production (depicted in Figure S5a) indi-
cates a declining trend in El Salvador, which displays an
elevated VPD (Figure 13a), while Guatemala and
Honduras exhibit increasing trends. Coffee production
involves both yield and cultivated area. As VPD rises, it
tends to decrease yield, which might be offset by an
expansion of planted areas to sustain higher production
levels or a move to higher elevation. However,
El Salvador has limited high elevation land to increase
production (Ovalle-Rivera et al., 2015, Figure S5b).
Figure S5b–d depicts the topographical elevation of
El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, respectively,
using 50-m elevation bins.
Coffee yield data were not available from the
USDA PSD, so coffee production was tested for corre-
lation with vapour pressure deficit (VPD) threshold
and anomaly (relative to 1980–2021), using the same
methods as in Section 2.6.1. Only El Salvador, with
VPD data derived from ERA5, exhibited significant
inverse correlations (0.05 level, two-tailed Pearson test)
for both threshold and anomaly. The TerraClimate
VPD threshold had a significant inverse correlation
with coffee yield for Honduras. Production should be
less climate-dependent than yield because it also
depends on the amount of land cultivated which can
change over time. No significant correlations were
found between coffee yield from FAO STAT data and
VPD metrics, processed as in Section 2.6.1. When cof-
fee yield is not filtered the correlations are positive,
opposite of expectations of lower yield, but possibly
indicating both VPD and technological advances are
rising over time unrelated to each other. Using a sin-
gle year of production or yield instead of the 2-year
for the biennial productivity cycle gives lower correla-
tions as expected.
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2716 NAKAMURA ET AL.

F I G U R E 1 1 Monthly trend 1980–2021 vapour pressure deficit (VPD) in kPa per 42 years from the Climate Lab at Sierra Nevada
Research Institute (TerraClimate). Small dot hatching indicates a significant trend to the 0.1 level. The colour scale ranges from low values
in dark blue, to light blue, light green, beige, yellow, orange, and high values in red.

3.3.2 | Maize unrelated climate warming and technological advances

A June, July, and August seasonal average (JJA) of stan-
dardized monthly anomalies (relative to 1980–2021) of
crop warming threshold (CWT, blue) and standardized
annual high pass USDA PSD maize yield (red) are shown
in Figure 14. Subplot headers indicate correlation for the
JJA seasonal average, June only, July only, and August
only. The two-tailed Pearson correlation critical value is
±0.25. El Salvador (Figure 14a) shows a significant
inverse correlation with the seasonal JJA, July, and
August CWT indicating a higher CWT goes with lower
yields. Guatemala (Figure 14b) is significantly inversely
correlated with CWT in JJA, and Honduras (Figure 14c)
in August.
CWT was compared with annual high-pass FAOSTAT
maize yields and no significant correlations were found.
Also, correlations with unfiltered yields are positive,
opposite of the expectation that warm maximum temper-
atures lead to reduced yield by wilting flowers in the
climate-sensitive period, but again likely reflecting
as both increase over time.
4 | DISCUSS I ON AND
CONCLUSIONS
4.1 | Discussion
Our study builds upon the findings of Cavazos et al.
(2019), focusing on climate trends from 1980 to 2021 in
Central America. Like Cavazos et al. (2019), we observed
positive trends in temperature. However, our study also
reveals distinct patterns in precipitation: In Guatemala,
we found positive trends in monthly precipitation in May
and October. Conversely, we found dry trends in
February (Guatemala and El Salvador), July (Guatemala
and Honduras), and December (Guatemala). These
trends in temperature and precipitation, both increases
and decreases, are statistically significant, with a 10%
likelihood that they could be due to random variation
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NAKAMURA ET AL. 2717

F I G U R E 1 2 Monthly trend 1980–2021 of crop warming threshold (CWT) in a fraction of a month the daily maximum temperature
anomaly is 1
C and over per 42 years, derived from the 1950–1980 daily maximum temperature anomalies from Berkely Earth. Colours and
contours every 0.2 fraction of a month. Small dot hatching indicates a significant trend to the 0.1 level. The colour scale ranges from low
values in dark blue, to light blue, light green, beige, yellow, orange, and high values in red.

under the null hypothesis of no trend (0.1 significance
level).
These observed climatic changes may have far-
reaching implications. The shifts in temperature and
precipitation patterns are not just atmospheric phe-
nomena; they play a critical role in shaping the
broader context of agricultural productivity and eco-
nomic stability in Central America. The interplay
among climate variability and change, agricultural
yields, and production, and local to global economic
dynamics forms a complex, interconnected system.
This system significantly influences how climate fluc-
tuations affect crop yields, which subsequently impact
the economies of small to medium-scale rainfed farms.
Stringer et al. (2021) and IFAD (2021) have suggested
out-migration may occur in response to negative eco-
nomic impacts of recent climate trends, a hypothesis
that received support in a recent empirical study
(Linke et al., 2023). However, the decision to migrate
is not solely driven by negative economic factors. In
fact, research by Cottier and Salehyan (2021) and
Reichman (2022) indicates that positive agricultural
economic gains can also be a significant factor, poten-
tially increasing migration, in particular where finan-
cial barriers to migration are high (see also
Dustmann & Okatenko, 2014). This demonstrates that
migration outcomes in response to adverse weather
and agricultural change is contingent on household
access to resources to cover the costs associated with
out-migration. Additionally, the role of social networks
plays a significant part in shaping migration decisions,
leading to diverse outcomes. This aspect of migration
dynamics, highlighting the influence of both
economic factors and social structures, is further elab-
orated by Nawrotzki et al. (2015), who noted the
heterogeneity in migration outcomes. Furthermore, de
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2718 NAKAMURA ET AL.

F I G U R E 1 3 Percent of month-area
of each country in the study region,
(a) El Salvador, (b) Guatemala, and
(a) (c) Honduras, that exceeded a threshold
of vapour pressure deficit (VPD of
0.82 kPa) of significant yield decline for
coffee during the growing and fruit
development season (June through
February) for 1980–2021 where the
EARTHSTAT fractional harvest area for
coffee was 0.1% and higher. VPD
threshold ERA5-derived (blue) is
computed from monthly 2-m
temperature and dewpoint from the fifth
version of the European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
reanalysis (ERA5). VPD threshold
TerraClimate (black) is from the Climate
Lab at Sierra Nevada Research Institute.
An example of percent month-area, a
(b)
value of 15 means that 15% of months,
in areas where coffee is grown, within
that year experienced VPD above the
threshold for yield decline. The year
indicates the year of the February
harvest. X-axes are time in years.

(c)

Sherbinin et al. (2022) highlight the critical role of theoretical frameworks to fully understand the complex-
migration theory in studies of climate-related migration. ities of why and how people migrate in response to cli-
They emphasize the need for integrating broader mate and environmental changes. This underscores the
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NAKAMURA ET AL. 2719

F I G U R E 1 4 A June, July, and

August seasonal average (JJA) of a
(a)
standardized anomaly of crop warming
threshold (CWT) monthly values derived
from daily maximum temperature
anomalies from Berkeley Earth (blue)
and standardized annual high pass
(removal of 10-year Butterworth low
pass to account for agricultural advances
over time) of United States Department
of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural
Service Production, Supply, and
Distribution (USDA PSD) maize yield
(red). Subplot headers indicate
correlation for the JJA seasonal average, (b)
June only, July only, and August only.
For (a) El Salvador, (b) Guatemala, and
(c) Honduras. X-axes are time in years.

(c)

importance of considering a wide range of factors,
beyond just immediate economic and climate pressures,
when examining migration decisions.
An illustrative example of this complexity can be seen
in the case of Honduras and its coffee industry. Even as
crop yields potentially decrease due to the climate change
quantified here, farmers with the economic capacity to
expand cultivation can remain profitable through access
to international markets and by capitalizing on global
coffee prices. A notable instance of this was observed
between 2010 and 2017, when despite adverse climate
conditions for coffee production, Honduras emerged as
the sixth-largest coffee producer globally. According to
Reichman (2022), coffee production in the Central Amer-
ican Dry Corridor (CADC) nearly doubled during this
period, driven by increased prices and profits. Interest-
ingly, these profits were reportedly used to fund
increased migration in response to short-term drops in
coffee prices, highlighting a nuanced relationship
between economic opportunities, climate impacts, and
migration decisions. However, we do not consider in this
article the effect of climatic changes on leaf rust, which
has dramatically reduced yields in some parts of
Guatemala and has initiated out-migration in frontier
areas of Guatemala near the Mexican border (Ruiz-de-
Oña et al., 2019).
Our climate analyses have identified key climate
quantities that significantly influence rainfed agriculture
in Central America. Coffee production is an important
income-generating component of livelihoods in many

2720
Central America rural households (Avelino et al., 2015).
For example, the impact of the restrictions related to
COVID-19, and concomitant declining prices, resulted in
a regional decline in production, which has been linked
to the loss of about 15,000 jobs and 17 million USD in
wages (FEWS NET, 2021, p. 4). These variables, due to
their potential influence on crop yields and subsequently
on livelihoods, may also play a pivotal role in shaping
migration patterns. Recognizing their importance, we
plan to integrate these climate variables as key time
series predictors in our future migration modelling stud-
ies. This approach aims to bolster the accuracy and com-
prehensiveness of migration models, ensuring they
effectively capture the complex interplay between climate
conditions, agricultural productivity, and human
migration.
4.2 | Conclusions
Overall, the trends show significant warming of surface
air temperatures over the last four decades. Precipitation
trends indicate an earlier start to the monsoon, a drier
mid-summer drought, and a delay towards October of the
second peak of precipitation. Changes in the timing of
the mid-summer drought were also found in Anderson
et al. (2019) and Maurer et al. (2022). In regions and
months of significant drying over the past 42 years, a
stronger positive temperature trend is found, as expected
from surface energy balance considerations. Trends in
VPD, a metric of plant physiological responses, show
large significant increases in northern Guatemala in
March through May, along the Pacific coast in winter,
and across the remainder of the study area in July and
August. Taken together, these findings suggest trouble
for coffee growers in Central America.
Over the past four decades, the seasonal climatologi-
cal fluctuations of precipitation, vapour pressure, and
vertical velocity in the region exhibit a monsoon pattern,
with upward vertical velocity and precipitation beginning
in April and ending in November, briefly reduced by the
mid-summer drought in July and August, and downward
vertical velocity and drying from December to March.
Temperature interacts dynamically with these seasonal
changes, peaking in April and May and then declining
due to increased moisture levels during the remainder of
the Northern Hemisphere warm season, reaching colder
temperatures in the fall and winter. VPD reflects the
amalgamation of these seasonal cycles. It attains its maxi-
mum in March and April when temperatures are high
and vapour pressure is low, and then decreases rapidly as
the wet season begins. A corresponding modest peak is
evident during the mid-summer drought, while VPD
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NAKAMURA ET AL.
reaches its minimum in September and October when
vapour pressure is high, and the temperature has fallen
from the spring maximum. Country spatially averaged
VPD is increasing in key growing seasons. Coffee has an
extremely low VPD threshold of 0.82 kPa linked to lower
yields (Kath et al., 2022). Maize also responds to both
temperature and VPD increases with decreasing yields at
the expected 2
C global warming over the next century
(Hsiao et al., 2019).
Temperature is generally driving the higher VPD in
the region, but reduced moisture is contributing to the
coastal increase. CWT decreased in May due to the ear-
lier start of the monsoon and increased in September
because of the delay in the second peak of precipitation.
There is also a strong increase in CWT in Honduras in
fall and winter. El Salvador already experiences frequent
exceedance of VPD thresholds during the extended coffee
growing season, which reduces coffee yields. Guatemala
and Honduras have seen an increase in the frequency of
these exceedances from 1980 to 2021. CWT shows an
inverse relationship with maize yields during the summer
flowering season in El Salvador, Honduras, and
Guatemala.
AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
Jennifer Nakamura: Conceptualization; investigation;
writing – original draft; writing – review and editing;
methodology; validation; visualization; formal analysis;
data curation. Richard Seager: Conceptualization;
investigation; writing – original draft; writing – review
and editing; methodology; supervision; validation; visual-
ization; formal analysis. Haibo Liu: Data curation; meth-
odology; formal analysis; conceptualization;
investigation; supervision. Fabien Cottier: Conceptuali-
zation; investigation; writing – review and editing;
supervision; data curation; formal analysis. Michael
J. Puma: Supervision; conceptualization; investigation;
writing – review and editing; formal analysis.
David J. Wrathall: Conceptualization; investigation;
writing – review and editing; supervision; formal analy-
sis. Brian Katz: Conceptualization; investigation;
writing – review and editing; supervision; visualization;
formal analysis. Alex de Sherbinin: Conceptualization;
investigation; funding acquisition; writing – review and
editing; supervision; formal analysis. Susana B. Adamo:
Writing – review and editing; conceptualization; investi-
gation; supervision; formal analysis.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Funding by DOD Minerva AFOSR Grant Number
FA9550-22-1-0282 on “Comparing Underlying Drivers of
South-North Migration: Central America and West
Africa.”

NAKAMURA ET AL.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST STATEMENT
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
The data that support the findings of this study are avail-
able in 2. Data and Methods section.
ORCID
Jennifer Nakamura https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4113-
8519
Richard Seager https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4772-9707
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NAKAMURA ET AL.
How to cite this article: Nakamura, J., Seager,
R., Liu, H., Cottier, F., Puma, M. J., Wrathall, D. J.,
Katz, B., A. de Sherbinin, & Adamo, S. B. (2024).
Recent trends in agriculturally relevant climate in
Central America. International Journal of
Climatology, 44(8), 2701–2724. https://doi.org/10.
1002/joc.8476