THE INCREASING IMPORTANCE

OF DISPATCHABLE GENERATION
IN THE PUSH TO NET ZERO

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I
n the dynamic landscape of the energy transition, one thing is
abundantly clear: there is not a one-size-fits-all solution. The
market demands diversity, versatility, and innovation, all with an
underlying commitment to safety, grid flexibility, and energy security.
As the energy transition gains momentum, the focus is shifting
from questioning the need for decarbonization to exploring how the
market can effectively meet our growing energy needs. The U.S.
Department of Energy’s (DOE) findings show that available renewable
resources are a staggering 100 times greater than the nation’s annual
electricity requirements. The challenge, however, lies in our current
ability to harness that potential. To demonstrate just how significant
a challenge this is, in 2020, the United States renewable energy
production in gigawatt hours was only 0.2% of the total renewable
potential. Market insights like this support the viability of renewables
in driving the energy transition, and the urgent need for solutions
to support existing energy needs along the path to net zero.

Gas turbines have long been a cornerstone of power generation,

offering reliability and efficiency, and cleaner emissions compared to
older thermal generation technologies such as coal. And as the world
moves towards decarbonization, their role evolves. We’re seeing a
significant rise in demand for clean energy solutions due to growth
in data center installations, the move toward electrification, and
onshoring of manufacturing. Because of this, electricity generators
are looking for a decarbonized solution that addresses reliability
and flexibility while reducing their carbon footprint. Gas turbines and
peakers have long been in play for these attributes, but now they
are shifting to being essential to society continuing to prosper.

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The questions facing the energy industry now are more
focused particularly and related to peak load management and
forecasting, connection of distributed resources, and necessary
infrastructure to transport clean energy to areas of high
demand. A particularly intricate aspect of this transitional phase
involves the use of peaker plants, which play a crucial role in
rapidly scaling up generation during periods of high load.
The use of gas turbines in a peaker application is not new; their
role is simply evolving and changing to meet the needs of a grid
with surging demand that also needs to decarbonize. As demand
on the grid fluctuates, load following assets are critical to meeting
and supporting energy requirements. Peakers specifically in this
context become a premium – their load following operational
profile meets requirements not just for ramp up, but for ramp
down as well. In this way, peakers are vital to meeting reliability
requirements while adapting grids to the inherent variability of
renewable energy sources. They provide power quickly and for
short periods of time, sometimes just a few hours per day. This quick
ramp-up is an attractive capability, adding to a profile that responds
well to a flexible grid that needs to be reliable above all else.
“We’re seeing multiple market dynamics happening at once,” says
Mousumi Guha, Senior Manager, Market Intelligence and Strategy,
at Mitsubishi Power, a power solutions brand of Mitsubishi Heavy
Industries. “There is load growth happening, more frequent
extreme weather events and greater renewables penetration, but
wind and solar don’t provide 24/7 generation,” she explains.
The convergence of these factors makes peakers essential for
current and future grid reliability: it’s not a question of whether
peakers will be needed, but when, where, and how many – as well
as how to factor peakers into plans on the path to net zero.
“There is load growth happening, increasing
extreme weather events and greater renewables
penetration, but wind and solar don’t provide
24/7 generation.”
MOUSUMI GUHA, Senior Manager, Market
Intelligence and Strategy, at Mitsubishi Power
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Recent advancements in gas turbine technology have improved
efficiency, offering lower-emission alternatives compared to older
types of turbines. Mitsubishi Power, for example, is replacing the last
coal-fired unit at the Grand River Energy Center in Oklahoma with an
advanced technology heavy duty gas turbine for peaking operation. This
marks the first time Mitsubishi Power’s J-Class technology will operate
as a peaker in the US, signifying a shift from previous technologies.
This shift is a significant one, as it is emblematic of a larger
market shift and meeting needs in coming years. Mitsubishi
Power’s experience in changes such as these is also important.
Historically, smaller, more agile turbines, such as the F-series, or
even Aeroderivative gas turbines, have been used to serve peaker
functions. While smaller turbines will continue to play a role in
the energy mix, the shift to the J-Class, a bigger, more powerful
turbine, is indicative of the changing needs of the grid. Namely,
that the grid simply requires more energy than ever before.
But the central question to the energy transition remains:
How do we balance the provision of flexible and reliable
power with the transition to clean energy?
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Electrification: One of the most important strategies for decarbonizing our economy is
electrification. At its core, electrification means replacing technologies
THE BIGGER PICTURE or processes that use fossil fuels, like internal combustion engines
and gas boilers, with electrically powered equivalents, such as electric
vehicles or heat pumps. The bigger consideration with electrification
is that our movements toward supporting these technologies
requires a secure and reliable grid. What that means, and how you
create it, depends on where you are, what resources you have to
work with, and what policy and regulation must be considered.

One consistent trend, however, is replacing internal combustion

engines and outdated equipment with more efficient, electrically
powered options in pursuit of reaching net zero. Transitions on
this scale are already well underway, but often less discussed
is what it takes to power this new electrified world. For one
thing, electric vehicle (EV) adoption is skyrocketing, with over 1
million EVs sold in a year in the U.S. for the first time in 2023.

But the hard-to-electrify sectors remain just that. For all the progress
in the EV world, long-haul trucking and other heavy-duty vehicles
still have a long way to go in terms of electrification. In addition to
the consumer transportation sector, the construction industry and
modern building design are also accelerating electrification. From
the adoption of heat pumps and electric stoves to regulations that
discourage the use of gas in new construction, both commercial and
residential buildings are moving towards greater electricity usage.
But for industries such as these to scale in the way we want them to,
massive support behind a flexible and reliable grid must first take place,
and a key component in that ecosystem of electricity is the peaker.

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates that
global electricity generation will increase by up to 76% in 2050.
This forecast, which considers only demand on a grid, enough
to contend with – but what isn’t represented here are the other
factors that can test a grid’s stability and reliability. These factors
range from erratic and increasingly severe weather patterns to the
installation of massive power consumers, such as data centers.
Until very recently, utilities didn’t factor in the effect of artificial
intelligence (AI) on load forecasting. Now, it’s clear that data centers
and server farms powering the massive computational needs of
AI-driven technology will significantly increase demand on our
grids. “The energy required today by server racks is already five
to eight times higher than historical requirements,” Guha says.
Regulatory changes with recent legislation are also encouraging
the return of manufacturing to the U.S., and industrial electrification
is a complex process that will require extensive power capabilities.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that electric and
plasma arc furnaces and industrial heat pumps are already in use,
and as vehicle manufacturing, battery plants and other industrial
producers increase their U.S.-based operations, these facilities will
significantly add to the load requirements placed on our grids.
“This is why dispatchable generation is so important to
grids overall — we’re seeing an underlying mismatch
between capacity and demand,” Guha says.
“The energy required today by server racks
is already five to eight times higher than
historical requirements.”
MOUSUMI GUHA, Senior Manager, Market
Intelligence and Strategy, at Mitsubishi Power
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THE NEW NORMAL OF
EXTREME WEATHER

At the same time that our electricity demand is increasing, the

infrastructure we rely on to supply it is facing more unpredictable
conditions. In 2023, the U.S. had a record 25 weather disasters
where overall damage reached at least $1 billion, and the
frequency of these events has increased in recent years.

The reality of this situation is that utilities will have to balance

addressing the need for two things simultaneously: 1) continuing
to provide reliable generation when other energy sources are
unavailable, and 2) addressing these requirements in a socially
equitable and just way. In many cases, for many regions, deployment
of both combined cycle and peaker plants is the answer.

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The forecast is clear: Ultimately, emission-free clean energy sources are the answer to
the underlying causes of climate change. Using these resources to
INCREASED CAPACITY power our electrified world is the path forward to mitigate the climate

IS NEEDED. BUT WHAT crisis while maintaining equitable prosperity and economic growth.

IS THE ANSWER? The variability of renewables is why electricity generators are

reducing their effective load carrying capacity (ELCC) for solar and
wind power; as a result, dispatchable generation remains vital to
ensure stable power supplies at all times. Essentially, solar power
production peaks in the middle of the day, but peak power demand
is later, from approximately 4:00-9:00 pm, depending on the region.

In areas of high solar penetration, the so-called “duck curve” is

becoming a “canyon curve” as solar production soars at midday,
and then peak demand jumps even higher in the early evening
hours as solar production declines. This developing “canyon
curve” is the context for why peakers will grow in size and
transition to advanced-class gas turbines. The story is simple:
while renewables are an integral part in the larger energy
transition, their inherent generation profile cannot meet baseload
requirements and the sheer need for megawatts in coming years.

“Utilities need dispatchable generation to

complement high renewables penetration.
It’s needed just a few hours a day when the
sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing,
but there is a huge peak in demand.”
MOUSUMI GUHA, Senior Manager, Market
Intelligence and Strategy, at Mitsubishi Power

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 Again, here peakers and storage systems come into play in the energy
ecosystem. Energy generated in off-peak hours can of course be stored
in batteries, and the value in energy storage is becoming more acutely
recognized as being essential to a grid that can meet the demands of
the future. But the ELCC situation is the same — adding more batteries
The Energy Transition: means charging them from the same generation source. As a result,
THE RAMP DOWN OF in the current market, dispatchable generation such as combined
COAL AND THE RAMP cycle or peaker plants are premium options to fulfill demand.

UP OF PEAKERS “Customers tell us that peaker plants are more important than ever,
and they need advanced technology gas turbines that are more efficient
One trend the market fully anticipates is the
and provide greater capacity at the same time,” says Jeanfils Saint-Cyr,
continued retirement of coal plants. On the
Senior Director Product Line Management, at Mitsubishi Power.
surface, this is a positive and environmentally
conscious trajectory. However, the acceleration
of retirements (due to new regulations and “Customers tell us that peaker plants are more
policy) will compound the mismatch between important than ever, and they need advanced
supply and demand. Since most coal plants
technology gas turbines that are more efficient
operate as baseload, no amount of renewable
and provide greater capacity at the same time.”
energy sources can securely and reliably
replace the amount of energy being taken JEANFILS SAINT-CYR, Senior Director Product
out of the system in real time. The cyclical Line Management, at Mitsubishi Power
nature of renewables is why independent
system operators (ISO) are lowering their
ELCC) for solar and wind. “One additional
megawatt of solar production doesn’t help
with the peak at 5:00 pm,” Guha explains.

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CLEANER PEAKERS
TRANSITION TO HYDROGEN
Given the economic, social and environmental factors, the energy
industry must utilize peakers that can be operated sustainably
to match decarbonization goals. Hydrogen has emerged as a
popular topic across the energy sector, and rightly so. It is a
versatile element with many capabilities. In our case here, the first
step is to run highly efficient advanced class turbines on natural
gas while also transitioning to a green hydrogen fuel mix. Green
hydrogen — hydrogen produced by splitting water molecules
via electrolyzers powered by renewable energy — holds great
potential as a fossil fuel replacement because once it is generated,
it can be stored across seasons and used at any time of day.
“There are modifications necessary for the gas turbine combustor,”
Saint-Cyr says. “At Mitsubishi Power, we’ve tested and validated
a 30% hydrogen mix with our JAC gas turbine.” This proof-
of-concept has now moved into implementation in Mitsubishi
Power’s partnership with Chevron at the Advanced Clean Energy
Storage (ACES Delta) Hub in Delta, Utah. The hub will use excess
renewable energy to convert green hydrogen and then store it
in two massive salt caves underground,” Saint-Cyr explains.
The neighboring power plant IPP Renewed will accommodate
an 840-MW gas turbine combined cycle plant initially powered
by a blend of hydrogen and natural gas. By 2045 or sooner,
it will run on 100% hydrogen. The hydrogen produced at
ACES Delta will supply the hydrogen to IPP Renewed.
The ACES Delta Hub provides a potential blueprint for how
transitions to emission-free power plants can work at an industrial
scale for sites with similar capabilities. And the end result is
simple, straightforward, and desired - this energy hub will
provide large-scale, year-round power to the western U.S.
“The hub will use excess renewable energy
to convert green hydrogen and then store it
in two massive salt caves underground.”
JEANFILS SAINT-CYR, Senior Director Product
Line Management, at Mitsubishi Power
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But ACES Delta is not the only successful example of hydrogen blended
for power generation. An economically successful energy transition
requires adapting existing infrastructure. At Plant McDonough-Atkinson
in Smyrna, Georgia, Mitsubishi Power demonstrated the feasibility
of a 20% hydrogen fuel blend at an existing gas turbine power plant.
“This advanced class technology has much greater capacity than
other turbine technologies,” Saint-Cyr says, “so not only are they
hydrogen capable, they also meet the greater load requirements
driven by electrification and overall power supply needs.”
THE GLOBAL DRIVE
FOR DECARBONIZATION
Mitsubishi Power’s endeavors in industrial-
scale hydrogen production extend globally.
At Takasago Hydrogen Park in Hyogo
Prefecture in Japan, they’ve developed the
world’s first integrated hydrogen facility.

Completing the transition to cleaner peakers and combined cycle plants The fully operational Takasago
will take regulatory support as well as technological advances. There Hydrogen Park features:
are hurdles to transportation and storage that must be addressed,
but projects such as Mitsubishi Power’s demonstrate these changes • An alkaline electrolyzer with hydrogen
are not just theoretically possible, they’re actually viable. These production capacity of 1,100Nm3/h
paradigm-shifting modes of thinking, planning, and implementation • Hydrogen storage facilities with a
are just as integral to the energy transition being successful as the total capacity of 39,000 Nm3
actual pieces of technology and science that make it all possible.
• The T-Point 2 grid-connected JAC
To materialize their plans, Mitsubishi Power was also recently named gas turbine combined cycle power
a sub-recipient for two regional clean hydrogen hubs through the plant where 30% hydrogen co-firing
U.S. DOE’s H2Hubs program. The Pacific Northwest Hydrogen Hub was successfully demonstrated.
and the HyVelocity Hub on the Gulf Coast will provide clean energy • With a mid-sized H-25 gas
to communities and help decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors such as turbine expected to be capable
heavy industry. These hubs will provide more opportunities to scale of operating on 100% hydrogen
technology and infrastructure so that green hydrogen is economically by the end of 2024
viable, thereby accelerating the energy transition as a whole.

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SOLVING THE TOUGHEST
CHALLENGES FOR A
NET-ZERO FUTURE
It is time for the energy industry and all stakeholders, both public
and private, to invest in solutions that decarbonize while maintaining
the critical functions they provide. Hydrogen is a ready and proven
technology that can take the industry from today’s paradoxical
situation to a clean energy future where we all have the electricity
we need, when we need it — and from net-zero emission sources.

“We need everyone to be a part of the solution,” Guha says.

“It will require the right locations for renewable generation,
the right storage options for large-scale hydrogen and
regulatory support to reach competitive parity.”

Current projects and those getting underway across the U.S.

prove that decarbonization and consistent power production go
hand-in-hand. By bringing industries and stakeholders together,
we can successfully chart a sustainable path forward.

Contact Mitsubishi Power Americas to learn more

about turbine solutions for peaker plants.

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Mitsubishi Power Americas, Inc. (Mitsubishi Power) headquartered in Lake
Mary, Florida, employs more than 2,800 power generation, energy storage, and
digital solutions experts and professionals. Our employees are focused on
empowering customers to affordably and reliably combat climate change while
also advancing human prosperity throughout North, Central, and South America.
Mitsubishi Power’s power generation solutions include gas, steam, and aero-
derivative turbines; power trains and power islands; geothermal systems; PV
solar project development; environmental controls; and services. Energy storage
solutions include green hydrogen, battery energy storage systems, and services.
Mitsubishi Power also offers intelligent solutions that use artificial intelligence
to enable autonomous operation of power plants. Mitsubishi Power is a power
solutions brand of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. (MHI). Headquartered in
Tokyo, Japan, MHI is one of the world’s leading heavy machinery manufacturers
with engineering and manufacturing businesses spanning energy, infrastructure,
transport, aerospace, and defense.

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