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Conservation
Conservation
Economics, Science, and Policy
1
3
Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers
the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education
by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University
Press in the UK and certain other countries.
DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780190613600.001.0001
1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2
Paperback printed by LSC Communications, United States of America
Hardback printed by Bridgeport National Bindery, Inc., United States of America
In memory of
Georgina Mace (1953–2020) and Karl-Göran Mäler (1939–2020)
two wonderful people
whose enduring contributions to science have influenced much
of our thinking
Contents
Preface xi
List of Figures xv
List of Tables xix
List of Abbreviations xxi
1 Environmental Conservation and Environmental Change 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 The biological record 7
1.3 Implications for conservation 10
1.4 Plan of the book 19
3 Hotelling Conservation 47
3.1 Introduction 47
3.2 The Hotelling arbitrage condition 48
3.3 Hotelling prices and quantities 53
3.4 Renewable natural resources and the Hotelling arbitrage condition 56
3.5 Connecting Hotelling conservation and conservation biology 67
3.6 Summary and conclusions 69
Index 401
Preface
As we finalize this book, the world economy has been rocked by the emer-
gence and spread of yet another novel zoonotic disease—COVID-19—with
origins at the interface between humans, their domesticates, and wildlife. It
reminds us that conservation is as much about the control of invasive pests
and pathogens as it is about the preservation of endangered wild plants and
animals. It also reminds us that every choice we make to promote or de-
grade life forms involves a social cost. In the COVID-19 case, the costs of our
attempts to control the disease have involved major economic dislocation
worldwide. The book starts from the premise that the conservation of any re-
source involves an opportunity cost—the benefits that could have been had
by converting that resource to a different use. The conservation of natural re-
sources, like the conservation of works of art, or historic buildings, involves
trade-offs.
The book is, first, a study of how people decide to conserve or convert re-
sources. Without worrying about the characteristics of particular resources,
we ask when and for how long it may be optimal to conserve resources. In
other words, we consider the general principles involved in making conserva-
tion decisions.
The book is, second, a study of the conservation of resources of the nat-
ural environment. This includes both directly exploited resources such as ag-
ricultural soils, minerals, forests, fish stocks, and the like, and the species and
ecosystems put at risk when people choose to convert natural habitat, or to
discharge waste products to water, land, or air. Conservation is as much about
the problem of how much or how little to extract from the environment as it is
about how much to leave intact.
The book is, third, a study of the context in which people make conserva-
tion decisions. Just as the decisions people make about investment in finan-
cial assets are influenced by the tax rules established in different countries, so
too decisions about the conservation of natural resources are influenced by
property rights, laws, and customs. This includes environmental regulations
within countries, and environmental agreements between countries. We con-
sider how conservation relates to environmental governance, and how gov-
ernance structures have evolved over time.
xii Preface
We have aimed the book at three audiences. The first is graduate students
in any of the disciplines bearing on conservation. While the arguments may
be most familiar to those studying environmental, resource, or ecological
economics, it is intended to be accessible to geographers, ecologists, conser-
vation biologists, political scientists, those studying environmental law, and
to those in the comparatively new field of sustainability science. The second
audience we have in mind is conservation practitioners, and professionals
whose remit includes the management of the natural environment and the
use of natural resources. We hope that the book will help those charged with
the conservation of the natural environment to think about the trade-offs in-
volved, the better to balance the protection of endangered species and other
societal goals, like economic development or poverty alleviation. The third
audience we have in mind is the substantial environmentally informed and
aware general public who are interested in digging beneath the superficial
treatment of conservation often encountered in the media. For people who
want to understand the balance that should be struck between preservation
and exploitation, between the protection of beneficial species and the control
of harmful species, the book offers a set of principles that can be applied in
most circumstances.
By including a somewhat formal and fully general theory of conservation,
we hope to show what is needed to make rational conservation decisions.
By including applications to a range of environmental resource allocation
problems, we hope to illustrate the many and varied factors that need to be
taken account of in the process. While our discussion of the theory of conser-
vation includes formal mathematical arguments, these are always paralleled
by a nonmathematical development of the same arguments. We hope that
readers will be able to select the approach that best suits them.
The first draft of the book was largely written while we on sabbatical
in Italy and Greece in 2018, and we thank our hosts in Siena and Volos,
Simone Borghese and George Halkos, for the opportunity to work in such
congenial environments. We also thank our home institution, Arizona State
University, for funding and logistical support during the preparation of
the book. Our thinking has been influenced over the years by many won-
derful people, too numerous to mention here. You know who you are, and
we thank you.
Finally, the book is the culmination of many years of work on different
aspects of the conservation problem, undertaken with the support of a
range of funding agencies. Three projects undertaken with colleagues at
a number of institutions have been particularly important: Advancing
Conservation in a Social Context, funded by the Macarthur Foundation;
Preface xiii
1.1 The proportion of national land under crop and livestock production
in 2013 8
1.2 Terrestrial and marine hotspots 18
2.1 The marginal rate of substitution 33
2.2 The income and substitution effects of a change in the commodity prices 34
2.3 The optimal wine storage period 43
3.1 The Hotelling arbitrage condition and optimal conservation in a
two-period problem 52
3.2 The Hotelling price path 54
3.3 The Hotelling extraction path 55
3.4 Compensatory and critically depensatory density dependent population growth 59
3.5 Harvest and stock size in the steady state 66
4.1 The high seas or sea areas beyond national jurisdiction (light gray) 74
4.2 Global capture fisheries, production 1950–2015 75
4.3 Global whale harvest, 1950–2015 76
4.4 Logistic growth function 77
4.5 Net price and fish stock conservation 80
4.6 Fleet size and fishery profits 82
4.7 Aggregate fleet size and profitability under open access conditions 84
4.8 Tree canopy cover 2000–2010 87
4.9 The stock benefits of forests and optimal rotation lengths 91
4.10 Effect of amenity value and fire risk on rotation length 93
4.11 Rangelands of the world 94
4.12 The discount rate and conservation in rangelands 99
5.1 Trade-offs between different goods and services 110
5.2 The value of a change in a marketed good or service 111
5.3 The value of a change in a nonmarketed good or service 112
5.4 Perfect complements and substitutes 113
5.5 Direct and indirect use and nonuse value typology 116
5.6 Willingness to pay to avoid risk 132
5.7 The portfolio effect and the trade-off between mean and variance in yields 134
xvi Figures
6.1 Adjusted net savings rates in different income groups, 1990–2015 150
6.2 Natural resource rents and agricultural value added as a percentage
of GDP by income group, 2015 151
6.3 Share of land area accounted for by protected areas (panel A) and forest
(panel B) across income groups 153
7.1 Marginal rates of technical substitution between natural and produced capital 161
7.2 Diminishing marginal rates of technical substitution 162
7.3 Substitution and output effects, and differences in the private and social cost
of natural capital for budget-constrained output maximizers 166
7.4 Short-run limitations on the substitutability of natural and produced capital 168
7.5 The production possibility frontier and the rate of product transformation 174
7.6 Functional similarities between dominant and minor species 178
7.7 The impact of environmental conditions on production 179
8.1 The Nash-Cournot reaction curve for the ith individual’s contribution to
the public good 189
8.2 The demand for public goods 191
8.3 The Great Limpopo Transfrontier Park in Southern Africa 194
8.4 Payoffs to conservation in a binary nonrepeated game 198
8.5 Types of two-by-two nonrepeated games 199
8.6 Payoff structures in two-by-two nonrepeated games 200
8.7 The incremental cost of increasing supply of local conservation effort 203
9.1 Externalities of land-based output on capture fisheries via the carrying
capacity of marine ecosystems 212
9.2 Pollution externalities affecting fish mortality alter marine stock dynamics 213
9.3 Privately optimal employment of Kx when externalities are ignored 214
9.4 Socially optimal employment of Kx when externalities are internalized 215
9.5 Indifference curves for a public bad, Y 220
9.6 Compensating and equivalent surplus for public bads 221
9.7 The efficiency of property-rights based solutions to externalities 225
9.8 Taxation of environmentally damaging externalities 226
9.9 Inducing the socially optimal employment of resources with positive
external effects 227
9.10 Penalties for noncompliance with a regulatory restriction 228
10.1 The geographical distribution of species richness (inset) and per capita GDP 235
10.2 Engel curves for normal, luxury, and inferior goods and services 238
10.3 Inferior goods 239
10.4 Total fertility, medium projection, 2020–2025 241
Figures xvii
14.6 An extensive form of the prisoners’ dilemma without shared pay-offs 351
14.7 An extensive form of the prisoners’ dilemma with shared pay-offs 351
14.8 The difference between the noncooperative (Ai) and cooperative
(Ai* ) level of conservation where there are n symmetric countries 352
14.9 Incremental cost 355
15.1 Measures of human impacts on biodiversity, habitat, and soils relative
to pre-existing conditions 365
15.2 Total sulfur and nitrate deposition 367
15.3 The proportion of assessed species threatened with extinction 368
15.4 Trends in the appearance of alien species in North America and South
America from 1800 to 2000 370
15.5 The KOF globalization index for the world, including the overall index,
the de facto index, and the de jure index 373
15.6 Imports of goods and services as a percentage of gross domestic product,
by income group 374
15.7 Exports of goods and services as a percentage of gross domestic product,
by income group 375
15.8 Export dependence on agriculture and natural resources 376
15.9 The KOF globalization index for world trade flows, including the overall
index, the de facto index, and the de jure index 377
15.10 Tourist arrivals 1995–2017 377
15.11 Numbers of people internally displaced by conflict and natural
disasters in 2016 379
15.12 Foreign direct investment, net inflows 1970–2017, as a percentage
of GDP by income group 381
15.13 Foreign direct investment, net inflows 1970–2017, measured in billions
of current US$ by income group 381
15.14 The simulated spread of an infectious disease originating in Hong Kong
across the air transport network, modeled as the shortest path tree (effective
distance) from the origin 385
15.15 Global trend in the state of world marine fish stocks monitored by FAO
(1974–2013) 393
Tables