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Populism and Trade
Populism and Trade
The Challenge to the Global Trading
System
Kent Jones
Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the
University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing
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on any acquirer.
Notes
References
Index
Preface and Acknowledgments
In the global trading system, the age of anxiety has given way to the
age of populism. Since the financial crisis of 2008, voting for populist
candidates in many countries has grown, and in recent years surged
to levels not seen since the 1930s. Beginning in 2018, the United
States imposed tariffs and other trade restrictions on a number of
products and even initiated a trade war with China, echoing the tariff
wars of the 1930s. Trade tensions have escalated to major
confrontations among countries, even among long-standing allies.
For the first time since the end of World War II, trade actions began to
ignore the rules established by global trade agreements. In the United
Kingdom the populist Brexit movement delivered a further blow to the
trading system, setting in motion a reduction in trade and investment
integration in Europe. Populist governments in many other parts of
the world have had varying impacts on trade policy, depending on
economic and political factors specific to the country. But in general,
the populist-induced erosion of the rules of the game has already
imposed economic costs on businesses and consumers around the
world, through disruptions in consumer market and supply-chain
linkages. Retaliatory tariff measures in response to the defiance of
World Trade Organization (WTO) rules and norms have deepened
the crisis. Reduced investment in trade-related businesses has
dampened trade flows even more and amplified damage to the world
economy. A continuation of such policies will compound the problem
by imposing higher costs on businesses and consumers, and it could
split the world into competing defensive trading blocs and cripple
global economic growth.
Table 1.1 US-Initiated Trade Restrictions and Retaliation, January 2018–January
2020
Date Initiated Against Action Products
by
2018
Jan. US Korea Section 201 (safeguard) Washing machines
22
China Solar Panels
Mar. US Most Section 232 (nat’l security Steel
23 countries tariffs)
Most countries Aluminum
Mar. US Korea Section 232 VERs* Steel
28
Apr. China US Retaliation Steel/Alum tariffs
2
June EU, Extend Section 232 Steel/Alum
1 Canada,
Mexico
June EU US Retaliation Food, consumer goods
22
July Canada US Retaliation Steel/aluminum, Food,
1 consumer goods
July US China Section 301 trade war Various goods
8 tariffs I
China US Trade war tariffs I Various goods, food
Aug. US Turkey Doubled tariffs (for Steel/aluminum
10 currency manipulation)
Aug. Turkey US Retaliation Cars, alcohol, tobacco
14
Aug. US China Trade war tariffs II Various
23
Aug. China US Trade war tariffs II Various
23
Sept. US China Trade war tariffs III Various
24
Sept. China US Trade war tariffs III Various
24
Aug. US Mexico, USMCA** VERs*, wage Autos
27 Canada provisions
2019
May US China Raise tariff III rates Various
10
May US Mexico Tariff quid pro quo Immigration policy
30
June China US Retaliation: higher tariff III Various
1 rates
June US India Withdraw GSP benefits All Indian exports
5
June India US Retaliation Steel/alum
15
2020
Jan. US, Phase One trade war Various trade quotas
15 China truce
Jan. US Several Section 232 extension Steel/aluminum derived
24 countries products
* VER: voluntary export restraint, prohibited by WTO rules.
** USMCA: United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, successor to the North
American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
Figure 1.1 US–China Trade War: Escalation of Tariffs, January 2018–March 2020
Source: Bown (2020a).