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The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival 1st ed. Edition Charles Goodhart full chapter instant download
The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival 1st ed. Edition Charles Goodhart full chapter instant download
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The Great Demographic Reversal
Charles Goodhart · Manoj Pradhan
The Great
Demographic Reversal
Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality,
and an Inflation Revival
Charles Goodhart Manoj Pradhan
London School of Economics Talking Heads Macro
London, UK London, UK
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland
AG 2020
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether
the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse
of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and
transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar
or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication
does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant
protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book
are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or
the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any
errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional
claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Preface (April 4 Version)
v
vi Preface (April 4 Version)
• The Banco de España for permission to reprint a Table from Y. Aksoy, et al.
(2015).
• Rightslink for permission to reprint a Table from M. Heise (2019).
• Brookings for permission to reproduce a Figure from L. Rachel and L. H.
Summers (2019).
• Marketplace Copyright for permission to reprint Paragraphs and Figures
from W. Gbohoui, et al. (2019).
• The American Economic Association for permission to reproduce two
Figures from D. H. Autor (2019); reproduced with the permission of the
American Economic Association Papers & Proceedings.
• Statista for permission to reprint one of their Figures.
• The High Pay Centre for permission to reproduce one of their Figures.
More generally our thanks are due to Hyun Shin for encouraging us to write
this extended book. We are especially grateful to Haizhou Huang for carefully
reading the whole book, and for greatly improving our chapter on China.
Similarly, our thanks go to Takatoshi Ito-San for help with our chapter on
Japan. We have been fortunate to have had helpful publishers in Palgrave
Macmillan, particularly in the persons of Tula Weis, Rachel Sangster, Lucy
Kidwell and Azarudeen Ahamed Sheriff.
But above all our greatest debt is to Miffy Goodhart and the Pradhan
family, who cannot remember when previously we have been so inattentive,
and have still forgiven us.
1 Introduction 1
ix
x Contents
References 219
Index 235
Abbreviations
xi
xii Abbreviations
EQ Emotional Quotient
FDI Foreign Direct Investment
FRB Federal Reserve Board
FRED Federal Reserve Economic Database
FT Financial Times
FTSE Financial Times Stock Exchange
FX Forex
G10 Group of 10
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GFC Great Financial Crisis
GFCF Gross Fixed Capital Formation
GGM General Gaidar Model
HH Household
HIC High-Income Countries
IBC Indian Bankruptcy Code
ICE Intercontinental Exchange
IMF International Monetary Fund
LHS Left Hand Side
LMIC Low- and Middle-Income Countries
LTI Loan to Income
LTIP Long-Term Incentive Plan
LTV Loan to Value
MAC Migration Advisory Committee
METI [Japan] Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
MFN Most Favoured Nation
MITI [Japan] Ministry of International Trade and Industry
MMSE Mini-Mental State Examination
NAIRU Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment
NBER National Bureau of Economic Research
NFC Non-Financial Corporation
NHS [British] National Health Service
NICE Non-Inflationary with Continuous Expansion
NLW National Living Wage
NRU Natural Rate of Unemployment
NUM [UK] National Union of Mineworkers
OBR Office for Budget Responsibility
OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
ONS Office for National Statistics
O-FDI Outbound Foreign Direct Investment
p.a. Per Annum
PACSim Population Ageing and Care Simulation
PBoC People’s Bank of China
PNTR Permanent Normal Trade Relations
PSC Private Sector
Abbreviations xiii
QE Quantitative Easing
R&D Research and Development
RHS Right Hand Side
RMB Renminbi
RoE Return on Equity
RPA Rural Payment Agency
RPI Retail Price Index
SOE State-Owned Enterprises
SSA Sub-Saharan Africa
TARP Troubled Asset Recovery Program
TU Trade Union
UAW [USA] Union of Auto Workers
UE Unemployment
UN United Nations
UR Unemployment Rate
USD US Dollar
VAT Value Added Tax
WAP Working Age Population
WAR World Alzheimer Report
WEF World Economic Forum
WHO World Health Association
WTO World Trading Organisation
ZLB Zero Lower Bound
List of Diagrams
xv
xvi List of Diagrams
xix
xx List of Tables
The rise of China and demography created a ‘sweet spot’ that has dictated the
path of inflation, interest rates and inequality over the last three decades. But
the future will be nothing like the past—and we are at a point of inflexion. As
that sweet spot turns sour, the multi-decade trends that demography brought
about are set for a dramatic reversal.
Many of our conclusions are controversial. Neither financial markets nor
policymakers are prepared for a significant rise in inflation and wages, or a rise
in nominal interest rates. Our other predictions are more benign—produc-
tivity will rise and labour will reclaim a greater share of national output,
reducing the inequality that has led to so much social and political upheaval.
Regardless of whether we are right or wrong, the effects of the ‘Great
Demographic Reversal’ will be pervasive across finance, health care, pension
systems, and both monetary and fiscal policies.
Of one thing we are sure, the future will be nothing like the past.
The single most important economic development over the years from 1990
to 2018 has been the rise of China and its integration into the global
trading economy. Chairman Deng Xiaoping reversed Mao Zedong’s disas-
trous policies during the 1980s by combining socialist ideology with an
opening to pragmatic market economics, using the slogan ‘socialism with
Chinese characteristics’—that led to China’s eventual inclusion in the World
Trading Organization (WTO) in 1997. The integration of China into the
global manufacturing complex by itself more than doubled the available
labour supply for the production of tradeable products among the advanced
economies (AEs). So we start the rest of this book with a Chapter on China,
Chapter 2.
The increase in the working age population (WAP, aged 15–64) in China
outstripped the combined increase in Europe and the USA from 1990 to
2017 over fourfold—China saw an increase of over 240 million while in the
latter two WAP increased by less than 60 million and mostly in the USA.
The participation of the working age population also tilted the scales heavily
in China’s favour. On the one hand, workers migrated aggressively from rural
to urban China—the latter’s share of total population increased by over 23
percentage points (pp hereafter), or 370 million between 2000 and 2017. In
the USA meanwhile, the participation rate (share of labour force to popula-
tion) declined by over 4pp during the same time—had it stayed steady, the
unemployment rate would have been higher before the pandemic struck.
But there was yet another boost to the world’s effective labour supply, arising
from the collapse of the USSR, following the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.
This brought the whole of Eastern Europe, from the Baltic States, through
Poland down to Bulgaria, also into the world’s trading system. The popula-
tion of working age in Eastern Europe rose from 209.4 million in 2000 to
209.7 million in 2010 and is now projected to be 193.9 million in 2020.
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BOOK X.
CONCERNING PARTITION, LIMITATION, AND BOUNDARIES.
XV. Both Tenants must Pay the Rent for Land which has
been Sublet.
Where a landlord receives a tenant on his land, and it afterward
happens that the latter sublets a third of the same to another party,
both shall be considered tenants of the landlord, and shall pay rent
to him in proportion to the amount of land they occupy.
XVI. Where Goths have Appropriated any of the Third Part of
Land Belonging to Romans, they shall Restore the Entire
Amount to the Romans, under Order of Court.
Judges, governors, and other authorities, in all cases where
Romans have been deprived of their lands, shall take them from
those who occupy them, and restore them to the Romans, in order
that the royal treasury may sustain no loss; provided, however, that
the period of fifty years shall not have elapsed, so that, by limitation
of time, the rights of the Romans to said lands may not have been
lost.
FLAVIUS CHINTASVINTUS, KING.
XVII. Concerning the Partition of Property Among the Blood-
Relatives of Slaves, and the Distribution of their Personal
Estates.
It is the just province of the law to amend or repeal by new
decrees, any former statutes which may be devoid of reason or
equity; and the cause of abuses must first be determined, before
laws can be enacted for their correction. As a son is born of both
parents, why should he follow the condition of his mother, while he
owes his being equally to his father. It is, therefore, but reasonable
that we decree that where one slave has married a slave owned by
another person, any issue of said marriage shall belong equally to
the masters of both slaves. Where, however, there is but one son
born to said parents, since he cannot serve both masters at once, he
shall remain with his mother until his twelfth year, at which age he
will be able to work. The master of the female slave shall then pay to
the master of her husband one half of the value of the child, after
said value shall have been appraised by men of respectability. A
similar rule shall be observed in the cases of other children of slaves,
where said children are not of even number. All personal property
which said male and female slave has accumulated, while living
under one roof, shall belong to both masters. And if said slaves
should have accumulated any property on land belonging to a third
person, or any building, or any real estate of any description, or any
personal property that is not portable, the masters of said slaves
shall have a right to the division of said property among themselves,
in the same manner as if it had been acquired through relationship
by blood. If one of the said masters should be opposed to the
marriage of the slaves aforesaid, he may straightway separate them,
under this condition: that, after said marriage shall have come to the
knowledge of said masters, and they should not desire its
continuance, they must dissolve it within a year. If, through their
negligence, this reasonable time prescribed by law should have
elapsed, whatever issue said slaves may have after that time, shall
be equally divided between their masters; the sex, number, and ages
of said children being taken into consideration. If more than a year
should elapse without one or both of their masters being aware of
said marriage, all issue of the same shall be divided between them,
as aforesaid.
THE GLORIOUS FLAVIUS RECESVINTUS, KING.
XVIII. All Personal Property shall be Classed under One Title.
We often see wicked persons, for the purpose of contention,
pervert the meaning of the law; and, in order to prevent such
conduct, as far as possible, we desire to simplify matters whenever
this can be done. Therefore, we decree that no difference shall exist
in the classification of all kinds of personal property, whether said
property be tangible, or merely held in trust by one for another; in
order that the subtle distinctions which have arisen in the
classification of said property may be abolished.
THE GLORIOUS FLAVIUS RECESVINTUS, KING.
XIX. Where a Contract is not Complied With, according to its
Terms.
Whenever any person obtains possession of land, vineyards, or
any other real estate, under a lease for the tenth part of its annual
yield, or for any other payment, or consideration, whether said lease
is in writing, or verbal, provided he who leases it does so under
some contract for rent, the lessee shall, without demand or
solicitation from the lessor, pay his rent regularly; nor shall the right
of the landlord to said rent be affected, in any way, should he not do
so. For wherever the provisions or covenants of a lease are not
fulfilled, the right of the owner shall not be affected; because the
controversy has not arisen through the act of the landlord, but
through the fraud of the tenant. If the tenant should refuse to fulfil his
contract, or to comply with any of its provisions, he shall pay double
the amount to the landlord which he agreed to pay him under the
terms of the lease. And if the tenant, alleging various pretexts,
should not comply with his contract for such a time that the rights of
the owner are lost by the limitation of the law, that is, for fifty years,
he shall forfeit said property, with all the increase in value of the
same resulting from his labors thereon.
TITLE II. CONCERNING THE LIMITATIONS OF FIFTY AND THIRTY YEARS.
I. After the Lapse of Fifty Years, Neither Goths nor Romans can Assert a
Claim to Property.
II. No Fugitive Slave shall Again be Reduced to Servitude, after the Lapse of
Fifty Years.
III. No Suit at Law shall be Brought Thirty Years After the Cause of Action has
Arisen.
IV. The Limitation of Thirty Years shall Run in all Cases Excepting those
where Slaves of the Crown are Concerned.
V. Concerning Claims made within Thirty Years.
VI. The Limitation of Thirty Years shall not Run while Persons are Exiled.
VII. Within what Time Slaves Belonging to the Crown can Again be Reduced
to Slavery.