2.

a.
1 1
𝑝𝑝(𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑) = =
1 + 51 52
b.
4 1
𝑝𝑝(𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟) = =
4 + 48 13
c.
13 1
𝑝𝑝(𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐ó𝑛𝑛) = =
13 + 39 4
d.
26 1
𝑝𝑝(𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟) = =
52 2
e.
48 12
𝑝𝑝(𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣 𝑞𝑞𝑞𝑞𝑞𝑞 𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟) = =
52 13
3.
a.
1 1
𝑝𝑝(𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 𝑗𝑗𝑗𝑗𝑗𝑗𝑗𝑗𝑗𝑗𝑗𝑗𝑗𝑗 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙 𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔 𝑎𝑎 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 1 𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛) = =
1 + 35 36
b.
35
𝑞𝑞(𝑞𝑞𝑞𝑞𝑞𝑞 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝) = 1 − 𝑝𝑝 =
36
6.
a.
40 4
𝑝𝑝(𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔 𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝) = = = 80%
50 5
b.
𝑝𝑝(𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔 3 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠) = 𝑝𝑝(0.8) × 𝑝𝑝(0.8) × 𝑝𝑝(0.8) = 0.83 = 0.512
c.
𝑝𝑝(𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑐𝑐) = 𝑝𝑝(0.8) ∗ 𝑝𝑝(0.8) ∗ 𝑞𝑞(0.2) = 0.128 ∗ 3 = 0.384
d.
16
𝑝𝑝(𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑑𝑑) = 𝑝𝑝(0.8) ∗ 𝑝𝑝(0.8) ∗ 𝑞𝑞(0.2) = = 0.128
125
e.
𝑛𝑛!
𝜆𝜆 =
𝑘𝑘! (𝑛𝑛 − 𝑘𝑘)!
Excel:
= 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶(𝑛𝑛ú𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚, 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡ñ𝑜𝑜)
5
𝑝𝑝(𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺 = 2) = � � × 𝑝𝑝2 × 𝑞𝑞 3 = 0.0512
2
5
𝑝𝑝(𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺 = 2) = � � × 𝑝𝑝2 × 𝑞𝑞 3 = 0.0512
2
5
𝑝𝑝(𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺 = 4) = � � × 𝑝𝑝4 × 𝑞𝑞 = 0.4096
4
5
𝑝𝑝(𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺 = 5) = � � × 𝑝𝑝5 × 𝑞𝑞 0 = 0.3276
5
𝑝𝑝(𝑒𝑒) = 0.512 + 0.2048 + 0.4096 + 0.32768 = 0.99328 ≅ 99,33%
8
Paciente A= 1/5
Paciente B= 3/4
Paciente C= 8/10
a.
4 1 2 1
𝑝𝑝(3 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚) = 𝑞𝑞 � � ∗ 𝑞𝑞 � � ∗ 𝑞𝑞 � � = ≈ 0.04
5 4 10 25
b.
1 3 8 3
𝑝𝑝(3 𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣) = 𝑝𝑝 � � ∗ 𝑝𝑝 � � ∗ 𝑝𝑝 � � = ≈ 0.12
5 4 10 25
c.
3
𝑝𝑝(𝑥𝑥 = 1) = � � ∗ 𝑝𝑝1 ∗ 𝑞𝑞 2 = 0.01728
1
3
𝑝𝑝(𝑥𝑥 = 2) = � � ∗ 𝑝𝑝2 ∗ 𝑞𝑞1 =0.096
2
3
𝑝𝑝(𝑥𝑥 = 3) = � � ∗ 𝑝𝑝3 ∗ 𝑞𝑞 0 = 0.064
3
𝑝𝑝(𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢 𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣) = 0.01728 + 0.096 + 0.064 = 0.17728
12
a=15
n=1000
f=985
15 15 15
𝐸𝐸(𝑀𝑀) = 10000 � � + 5000 � � + 2500 � � = 𝑄𝑄262.5
1000 1000 1000

14.
M= 50,000,000
f= 1% si el clima está malo
a= 85%
q= 1-p= 15% el clima está mal
0.01
𝐸𝐸(𝑀𝑀) = � � 50,000,000 = $3,333,333.33
0.15
17.
M=100,000*75
p= 0.3
a)
7500000(1 + 25%)−22 = $55,340.23
b)
7500000(1 + 15%)−22 = $346,504.42
c)
7500000(1 + 5%)−22 = $2,563,874.03
19:
𝐸𝐸(𝑀𝑀) = 0.01(0%) + 0.04(50%) + 0.08(80%) + 0.17(90%) + 0.7(100%) = 0.937
≅ 93.7%

21.
a)
 𝑚𝑚18 35
= = 0.0003564
𝑣𝑣18 98204
b)
𝑚𝑚29 54
= = 0.0005498
𝑣𝑣18 98204
c)
𝑚𝑚59 766
= = 0.0078
𝑣𝑣18 98204
23.
a)
𝑣𝑣40 − 𝑣𝑣40+0 93746 − 93746
0 𝑞𝑞 40 = = 40𝑞𝑞40 = =0
𝑣𝑣40 93746
b)
93746 − 92056
5𝑞𝑞40 = = 0.01822
92746
c)
93746 − 66056
30𝑞𝑞40 = = 0.29537
93746
25:
a)
𝑁𝑁28 = 579,857.5
b)
𝑁𝑁39 = 326482.1
c)
𝑁𝑁81 = 10054.2

EJERCICIOS COMPLEMENTARIOS:
3:
a)
18
𝑝𝑝 = = 0.48648
37
b)
 17
𝑝𝑝 = = 0.45945
37
c)
13
𝑝𝑝 = = 0.35135
37
d)
8
𝑝𝑝 = = 0.21621
37
5:
Fumadores: 0.22(16000) = 3,520
Probabilidad de contraer enfermedades respiratorias crónicas: 0.8
𝐸𝐸(𝑀𝑀) = 0.8(3520) = 2816

7:
M= 250
Probabilidad de ganar del equipo de futbol:
8 4
𝑝𝑝 = =
14 7
Esperanza matemática:
4
𝐸𝐸(𝑀𝑀) = (250) = 142.86
7
9:
M= 500 Millones
Probabilidad eventos independientes:
𝑝𝑝(𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 ℎ𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚) = 0.05 × 0.04 = 0.002

Esperanza matemática:
𝐸𝐸(𝑀𝑀) = 0.002(500,000,000) = $1,000,000
11:
Monto herencia niño 14 años:
300,000(1 + 15%)4 = $524,701.88
Monto herencia niño 10 años:
 250,000(1 + 15%)8 = $764,755.72
Esperanza matemática niño de 14 años:
𝐸𝐸(𝑀𝑀) = 0.0095(524,701.88) = $4984.67
Esperanza matemática niño de 10 años:
𝐸𝐸(𝑀𝑀) = 0.0120(764,755.72) = $9177.06
13:
M= $750,000
I= 18%
mx = 0.00239
0.00239 × 750,000(1 + 18%)1 = $2115.15
15:
0.25 − 0.20 = (1 + 0.20)
0.05
𝑖𝑖 = = 0.04166 ≈ 4.16%
1.20
17:
𝐸𝐸(𝑀𝑀) = 0.00(0%) + 0.01(50%) + 0.04(75%) + 0.05(90%) + 0.90(100%) = 98%
Teniendo en cuenta la tasa del mercado:
0.98𝑥𝑥 + 0.98(0) = 14%
0.14
𝑥𝑥 = = 0.14286 ≈ 14.29%
0.98
19:
a)
𝑣𝑣18 − 𝑣𝑣23 98204 − 98016
5𝑞𝑞18 = = = 0.00191
𝑣𝑣18 98204
b)
𝑣𝑣18 − 𝑣𝑣20 98204 − 98133
2𝑞𝑞18 = = = 0.00072
𝑣𝑣18 98204
c)
𝑣𝑣18+15 97499
15𝑃𝑃18 = = ≈ 0.99282
𝑣𝑣18 98204
21:
a)
 𝐸𝐸(𝑀𝑀) = 𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛(𝐸𝐸) + 𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛(𝐸𝐸𝑛𝑛 ) … )
98016 97975 97932
𝐸𝐸(𝑀𝑀) = (160) + (200) + (120) = 479.05
98204 98170 98133
b)
97499 97425 97345
𝐸𝐸(𝑀𝑀) = (160) + (200) + (120) = 476.37
98204 98170 98133
c)
95241 94950 94631
𝐸𝐸(𝑀𝑀) = (160) + (200) + (120) = 464.33
98204 97975 97932
d)
71158 68943 66590
𝐸𝐸(𝑀𝑀) = (160) + (200) + (120) = 337.81
98204 97975 97932