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Contents

Preface ix Theoretical Exercises 106

Self-Test Problems and Exercises 109
1 Combinatorial Analysis 1

1.1 Introduction 1 4 Random Variables 112

1.2 The Basic Principle of Counting 2 4.1 Random Variables 112
1.3 Permutations 3 4.2 Discrete Random Variables 116
1.4 Combinations 5 4.3 Expected Value 119
1.5 Multinomial Coefficients 9 4.4 Expectation of a Function of a Random
1.6 The Number of Integer Solutions of Variable 121
Equations 12 4.5 Variance 125
Summary 15 4.6 The Bernoulli and Binomial Random
Problems 15 Variables 127
Theoretical Exercises 17 4.7 The Poisson Random Variable 135
Self-Test Problems and Exercises 19 4.8 Other Discrete Probability Distributions 147

2 Axioms of Probability 21
4.9 Expected Value of Sums of Random
Variables 155
2.1 Introduction 21 4.10 Properties of the Cumulative Distribution
Function 159
2.2 Sample Space and Events 21
Summary 162
2.3 Axioms of Probability 25
Problems 163
2.4 Some Simple Propositions 28
Theoretical Exercises 169
2.5 Sample Spaces Having Equally Likely
Outcomes 32 Self-Test Problems and Exercises 173
2.6 Probability as a Continuous Set Function 42
2.7 Probability as a Measure of Belief 46 5 Continuous Random
Summary 47 Variables 176
Problems 48
5.1 Introduction 176
Theoretical Exercises 52
5.2 Expectation and Variance of Continuous
Self-Test Problems and Exercises 54 Random Variables 179

3 Conditional Probability
5.3
5.4
The Uniform Random Variable 184
Normal Random Variables 187
and Independence 56
5.5 Exponential Random Variables 197
3.1 Introduction 56 5.6 Other Continuous Distributions 203
3.2 Conditional Probabilities 56 5.7 The Distribution of a Function
3.3 Bayes’s Formula 62 of a Random Variable 208
3.4 Independent Events 75 Summary 210
3.5 P(·|F ) Is a Probability 89 Problems 212
Summary 97 Theoretical Exercises 214
Problems 97 Self-Test Problems and Exercises 217

vii
viii Contents

8.3 The Central Limit Theorem 370

6 Jointly Distributed Random 8.4 The Strong Law of Large Numbers 378
Variables 220 8.5 Other Inequalities 382
6.1 Joint Distribution Functions 220 8.6 Bounding the Error Probability When
6.2 Independent Random Variables 228 Approximating a Sum of Independent
Bernoulli Random Variables by a Poisson
6.3 Sums of Independent Random
Random Variable 388
Variables 239
Summary 390
6.4 Conditional Distributions: Discrete
Case 248 Problems 390
6.5 Conditional Distributions: Continuous Theoretical Exercises 392
Case 250 Self-Test Problems and Exercises 393
6.6
6.7
Order Statistics 256
Joint Probability Distribution of Functions
9 Additional Topics
of Random Variables 260 in Probability 395
6.8 Exchangeable Random Variables 267 9.1 The Poisson Process 395
Summary 270 9.2 Markov Chains 397
Problems 271 9.3 Surprise, Uncertainty, and Entropy 402
Theoretical Exercises 275 9.4 Coding Theory and Entropy 405
Self-Test Problems and Exercises 277 Summary 411
Problems and Theoretical Exercises 412
7 Properties of Expectation 280 Self-Test Problems and Exercises 413

7.1
7.2
Introduction 280
Expectation of Sums of Random
10 Simulation 415

Variables 281 10.1 Introduction 415

7.3 Moments of the Number of Events that 10.2 General Techniques for Simulating
Occur 298 Continuous Random Variables 417
7.4 Covariance, Variance of Sums, and 10.3 Simulating from Discrete Distributions 424
Correlations 304 10.4 Variance Reduction Techniques 426
7.5 Conditional Expectation 313 Summary 430
7.6 Conditional Expectation and Problems 430
Prediction 330
Self-Test Problems and Exercises 431
7.7 Moment Generating Functions 334
7.8 Additional Properties of Normal Random Answers to Selected Problems 433
Variables 345
7.9 General Definition of Expectation 349
Solutions to Self-Test Problems
Summary 351
and Exercises 435
Problems 352
Theoretical Exercises 359
Index 465
Self-Test Problems and Exercises 363

Common Discrete Distributions inside

8 Limit Theorems 367 front cover
8.1 Introduction 367
Common Continuous Distributions inside
8.2 Chebyshev’s Inequality and the Weak
back cover
Law of Large Numbers 367
Preface

“We see that the theory of probability is at bottom only common sense reduced
to calculation; it makes us appreciate with exactitude what reasonable minds feel
by a sort of instinct, often without being able to account for it. . . . It is remark-
able that this science, which originated in the consideration of games of chance,
should have become the most important object of human knowledge. . . . The most
important questions of life are, for the most part, really only problems of proba-
bility.” So said the famous French mathematician and astronomer (the “Newton of
France”) Pierre-Simon, Marquis de Laplace. Although many people believe that the
famous marquis, who was also one of the great contributors to the development of
probability, might have exaggerated somewhat, it is nevertheless true that proba-
bility theory has become a tool of fundamental importance to nearly all scientists,
engineers, medical practitioners, jurists, and industrialists. In fact, the enlightened
individual had learned to ask not “Is it so?” but rather “What is the probability that
it is so?”

General Approach and Mathematical Level

This book is intended as an elementary introduction to the theory of probability
for students in mathematics, statistics, engineering, and the sciences (including com-
puter science, biology, the social sciences, and management science) who possess the
prerequisite knowledge of elementary calculus. It attempts to present not only the
mathematics of probability theory, but also, through numerous examples, the many
diverse possible applications of this subject.

Content and Course Planning

Chapter 1 presents the basic principles of combinatorial analysis, which are most
useful in computing probabilities.
Chapter 2 handles the axioms of probability theory and shows how they can be
applied to compute various probabilities of interest.
Chapter 3 deals with the extremely important subjects of conditional probability
and independence of events. By a series of examples, we illustrate how conditional
probabilities come into play not only when some partial information is available,
but also as a tool to enable us to compute probabilities more easily, even when
no partial information is present. This extremely important technique of obtaining
probabilities by “conditioning” reappears in Chapter 7, where we use it to obtain
expectations.
The concept of random variables is introduced in Chapters 4, 5, and 6. Discrete
random variables are dealt with in Chapter 4, continuous random variables in
Chapter 5, and jointly distributed random variables in Chapter 6. The important
concepts of the expected value and the variance of a random variable are intro-
duced in Chapters 4 and 5, and these quantities are then determined for many of the
common types of random variables.

ix
x Preface

Additional properties of the expected value are considered in Chapter 7. Many

examples illustrating the usefulness of the result that the expected value of a sum
of random variables is equal to the sum of their expected values are presented.
Sections on conditional expectation, including its use in prediction, and on moment-
generating functions are contained in this chapter. In addition, the final section
introduces the multivariate normal distribution and presents a simple proof con-
cerning the joint distribution of the sample mean and sample variance of a sample
from a normal distribution.
Chapter 8 presents the major theoretical results of probability theory. In par-
ticular, we prove the strong law of large numbers and the central limit theorem.
Our proof of the strong law is a relatively simple one that assumes that the random
variables have a finite fourth moment, and our proof of the central limit theorem
assumes Levy’s continuity theorem. This chapter also presents such probability
inequalities as Markov’s inequality, Chebyshev’s inequality, and Chernoff bounds.
The final section of Chapter 8 gives a bound on the error involved when a probability
concerning a sum of independent Bernoulli random variables is approximated by the
corresponding probability of a Poisson random variable having the same expected
value.
Chapter 9 presents some additional topics, such as Markov chains, the Poisson
process, and an introduction to information and coding theory, and Chapter 10 con-
siders simulation.
As in the previous edition, three sets of exercises are given at the end of each
chapter. They are designated as Problems, Theoretical Exercises, and Self-Test Prob-
lems and Exercises. This last set of exercises, for which complete solutions appear in
Solutions to Self-Test Problems and Exercises, is designed to help students test their
comprehension and study for exams.

Changes for the Ninth Edition

The ninth edition continues the evolution and fine tuning of the text. Aside from a
multitude of small changes made to increase the clarity of the text, the new edition
includes many new and updated problems, exercises, and text material chosen both
for inherent interest and for their use in building student intuition about probability.
Illustrative of these goals are Examples 3h and 4k of Chapter 3, which deal with
estimating the fraction of twin pairs that are identical and with analyzing serve and
rally games.

Acknowledgments
I would like to thank the following people who have graciously taken the time to
contact me with comments for improving the text: Amir Ardestani, Polytechnic
University of Teheran; Joe Blitzstein, Harvard University; Peter Nuesch, Univer-
sity of Lausaunne; Joseph Mitchell, SUNY, Stony Brook; Alan Chambless, actuary;
Robert Kriner; Israel David, Ben-Gurion University; T. Lim, George Mason Univer-
sity; Wei Chen, Rutgers; D. Monrad, University of Illinois; W. Rosenberger, George
Mason University; E. Ionides, University of Michigan; J. Corvino, Lafayette College;
T. Seppalainen, University of Wisconsin; Jack Goldberg; University of Michigan;
Sunil Dhar, New Jersey Institute of Technology; Vladislav Kargin, Stanford Univer-
sity; Marlene Miller; Ahmad Parsian; and Fritz Scholz, University of Washington.
I would also like to especially thank the reviewers of the ninth edition: Richard
Laugesen, University of Illinois; Stacey Hancock, Clark University; Stefan Heinz,
University of Wyoming; and Brian Thelen, University of Michigan. I would like to
 Preface xi

thank the accuracy checkers, Keith Friedman (University of Texas at Austin) and
Stacey Hancock (Clark University), for their careful review.
Finally, I would like to thank the following reviewers for their many helpful
comments. Reviewers of the ninth edition are marked with an asterisk.

K. B. Athreya, Iowa State University

Edward Ionides, University of Michigan
Richard Bass, University of Connecticut
Anastasia Ivanova, University of North
Robert Bauer, University of Illinois at
Carolina
Urbana-Champaign
Hamid Jafarkhani, University of California,
Phillip Beckwith, Michigan Tech
Irvine
Arthur Benjamin, Harvey Mudd College
Chuanshu Ji, University of North Carolina,
Geoffrey Berresford, Long Island University
Chapel Hill
Baidurya Bhattacharya, University of Delaware
Robert Keener, University of Michigan
Howard Bird, St. Cloud State University
*Richard Laugesen, University of Illinois
Shahar Boneh, Metropolitan State College of
Fred Leysieffer, Florida State University
Denver
Thomas Liggett, University of California, Los
Jean Cadet, State University of New York at Stony
Angeles
Brook
Helmut Mayer, University of Georgia
Steven Chiappari, Santa Clara University
Bill McCormick, University of Georgia
Nicolas Christou, University of California, Los
Ian McKeague, Florida State University
Angeles
R. Miller, Stanford University
James Clay, University of Arizona at Tucson
Ditlev Monrad, University of Illinois
Francis Conlan, University of Santa Clara
Robb J. Muirhead, University of Michigan
Justin Corvino, Lafayette College
Joe Naus, Rutgers University
Jay DeVore, California Polytechnic University,
Nhu Nguyen, New Mexico State University
San Luis Obispo
Ellen O’Brien, George Mason University
Scott Emerson, University of Washington
N. U. Prabhu, Cornell University
Thomas R. Fischer, Texas A & M University
Kathryn Prewitt, Arizona State University
Anant Godbole, Michigan Technical
Jim Propp, University of Wisconsin
University
William F. Rosenberger, George Mason University
Zakkula Govindarajulu, University of Kentucky
Myra Samuels, Purdue University
Richard Groeneveld, Iowa State University
I. R. Savage, Yale University
*Stacey Hancock, Clark University
Art Schwartz, University of Michigan at Ann Arbor
Mike Hardy, Massachusetts Institute of
Therese Shelton, Southwestern University
Technology
Malcolm Sherman, State University of New York at
Bernard Harris, University of Wisconsin
Albany
Larry Harris, University of Kentucky
Murad Taqqu, Boston University
David Heath, Cornell University
*Brian Thelen, University of Michigan
*Stefan Heinz, University of Wyoming
Eli Upfal, Brown University
Stephen Herschkorn, Rutgers University
Ed Wheeler, University of Tennessee
Julia L. Higle, University of Arizona
Allen Webster, Bradley University
Mark Huber, Duke University
S. R.
smross@usc.edu
This page intentionally left blank
 Chapter
Combinatorial Analysis

Contents
1
1.1 Introduction 1.5 Multinomial Coefficients
1.2 The Basic Principle of Counting 1.6 The Number of Integer Solutions of
1.3 Permutations Equations
1.4 Combinations

1.1 Introduction
Here is a typical problem of interest involving probability: A communication system
is to consist of n seemingly identical antennas that are to be lined up in a linear order.
The resulting system will then be able to receive all incoming signals—and will be
called functional—as long as no two consecutive antennas are defective. If it turns
out that exactly m of the n antennas are defective, what is the probability that the
resulting system will be functional? For instance, in the special case where n = 4 and
m = 2, there are 6 possible system configurations, namely,

0 1 1 0
0 1 0 1
1 0 1 0
0 0 1 1
1 0 0 1
1 1 0 0

where 1 means that the antenna is working and 0 that it is defective. Because the
resulting system will be functional in the first 3 arrangements and not functional in
the remaining 3, it seems reasonable to take 36 = 12 as the desired probability. In
the case of general n and m, we could compute the probability that the system is
functional in a similar fashion. That is, we could count the number of configurations
that result in the system’s being functional and then divide by the total number of all
possible configurations.
From the preceding discussion, we see that it would be useful to have an effec-
tive method for counting the number of ways that things can occur. In fact, many
problems in probability theory can be solved simply by counting the number of dif-
ferent ways that a certain event can occur. The mathematical theory of counting is
formally known as combinatorial analysis.

1
2 Chapter 1 Combinatorial Analysis

1.2 The Basic Principle of Counting

The basic principle of counting will be fundamental to all our work. Loosely put, it
states that if one experiment can result in any of m possible outcomes and if another
experiment can result in any of n possible outcomes, then there are mn possible
outcomes of the two experiments.

The basic principle of counting

Suppose that two experiments are to be performed. Then if experiment 1 can
result in any one of m possible outcomes and if, for each outcome of experiment
1, there are n possible outcomes of experiment 2, then together there are mn
possible outcomes of the two experiments.

Proof of the Basic Principle: The basic principle may be proven by enumerating
all the possible outcomes of the two experiments; that is,
(1, 1), (1, 2), . . . , (1, n)
(2, 1), (2, 2), . . . , (2, n)

#
#
#
(m, 1), (m, 2), . . . , (m, n)
where we say that the outcome is (i, j) if experiment 1 results in its ith possible
outcome and experiment 2 then results in its jth possible outcome. Hence, the set of
possible outcomes consists of m rows, each containing n elements. This proves the
result.

Example A small community consists of 10 women, each of whom has 3 children. If one
2a woman and one of her children are to be chosen as mother and child of the year,
how many different choices are possible?
Solution By regarding the choice of the woman as the outcome of the first experi-
ment and the subsequent choice of one of her children as the outcome of the second
experiment, we see from the basic principle that there are 10 * 3 = 30 possible
choices. .
When there are more than two experiments to be performed, the basic principle
can be generalized.

The generalized basic principle of counting

If r experiments that are to be performed are such that the first one may result
in any of n1 possible outcomes; and if, for each of these n1 possible outcomes,
there are n2 possible outcomes of the second experiment; and if, for each of the
possible outcomes of the first two experiments, there are n3 possible outcomes
of the third experiment; and if . . . , then there is a total of n1 · n2 · · · nr possible
outcomes of the r experiments.

Example A college planning committee consists of 3 freshmen, 4 sophomores, 5 juniors, and

2b 2 seniors. A subcommittee of 4, consisting of 1 person from each class, is to be cho-
sen. How many different subcommittees are possible?
 A First Course in Probability 3

Solution We may regard the choice of a subcommittee as the combined outcome of

the four separate experiments of choosing a single representative from each of the
classes. It then follows from the generalized version of the basic principle that there
are 3 * 4 * 5 * 2 = 120 possible subcommittees. .

Example How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 3 places are to be
2c occupied by letters and the final 4 by numbers?
Solution By the generalized version of the basic principle, the answer is 26 · 26 ·
26 · 10 · 10 · 10 · 10 = 175,760,000. .

Example How many functions defined on n points are possible if each functional value is
2d either 0 or 1?
Solution Let the points be 1, 2, . . . , n. Since f (i) must be either 0 or 1 for each
i = 1, 2, . . . , n, it follows that there are 2n possible functions. .

Example In Example 2c, how many license plates would be possible if repetition among letters
2e or numbers were prohibited?
Solution In this case, there would be 26 · 25 · 24 · 10 · 9 · 8 · 7 = 78,624,000
possible license plates. .

1.3 Permutations
How many different ordered arrangements of the letters a, b, and c are possible?
By direct enumeration we see that there are 6, namely, abc, acb, bac, bca, cab,
and cba. Each arrangement is known as a permutation. Thus, there are 6 possible
permutations of a set of 3 objects. This result could also have been obtained
from the basic principle, since the first object in the permutation can be any of
the 3, the second object in the permutation can then be chosen from any of the
remaining 2, and the third object in the permutation is then the remaining 1.
Thus, there are 3 · 2 · 1 = 6 possible permutations.

Suppose now that we have n objects. Reasoning similar to that we have just used
for the 3 letters then shows that there are

n(n − 1)(n − 2) · · · 3 · 2 · 1 = n!

different permutations of the n objects.

Whereas n! (read as “n factorial”) is defined to equal 1 · 2 · · · n when n is a

positive integer, it is convenient to define 0! to equal 1.

Example How many different batting orders are possible for a baseball team consisting of 9
3a players?
Solution There are 9! = 362,880 possible batting orders. .

Example A class in probability theory consists of 6 men and 4 women. An examination is

3b given, and the students are ranked according to their performance. Assume that no
two students obtain the same score.
(a) How many different rankings are possible?
4 Chapter 1 Combinatorial Analysis

(b) If the men are ranked just among themselves and the women just among them-
selves, how many different rankings are possible?

Solution (a) Because each ranking corresponds to a particular ordered arrangement

of the 10 people, the answer to this part is 10! = 3,628,800.
(b) Since there are 6! possible rankings of the men among themselves and 4!
possible rankings of the women among themselves, it follows from the basic principle
that there are (6!)(4!) = (720)(24) = 17,280 possible rankings in this case. .

Example Ms. Jones has 10 books that she is going to put on her bookshelf. Of these, 4 are math-
3c ematics books, 3 are chemistry books, 2 are history books, and 1 is a language book.
Ms. Jones wants to arrange her books so that all the books dealing with the same
subject are together on the shelf. How many different arrangements are possible?
Solution There are 4! 3! 2! 1! arrangements such that the mathematics books are
first in line, then the chemistry books, then the history books, and then the language
book. Similarly, for each possible ordering of the subjects, there are 4! 3! 2! 1! pos-
sible arrangements. Hence, as there are 4! possible orderings of the subjects, the
desired answer is 4! 4! 3! 2! 1! = 6912. .

We shall now determine the number of permutations of a set of n objects when

certain of the objects are indistinguishable from one another. To set this situation
straight in our minds, consider the following example.

Example How many different letter arrangements can be formed from the letters PEPPER?
3d
Solution We first note that there are 6! permutations of the letters P1 E1 P2 P3 E2 R
when the 3P’s and the 2E’s are distinguished from one another. However, consider
any one of these permutations—for instance, P1 P2 E1 P3 E2 R. If we now permute the
P’s among themselves and the E’s among themselves, then the resultant arrange-
ment would still be of the form PPEPER. That is, all 3! 2! permutations

P1 P2 E1 P3 E2 R P1 P2 E2 P3 E1 R
P1 P3 E1 P2 E2 R P1 P3 E2 P2 E1 R
P2 P1 E1 P3 E2 R P2 P1 E2 P3 E1 R
P2 P3 E1 P1 E2 R P2 P3 E2 P1 E1 R
P3 P1 E1 P2 E2 R P3 P1 E2 P2 E1 R
P3 P2 E1 P1 E2 R P3 P2 E2 P1 E1 R

are of the form PPEPER. Hence, there are 6!/(3! 2!) = 60 possible letter arrange-
ments of the letters PEPPER. .

In general, the same reasoning as that used in Example 3d shows that there are
n!
n1 ! n2 ! · · · nr !
different permutations of n objects, of which n1 are alike, n2 are alike, . . . , nr are
alike.

Example A chess tournament has 10 competitors, of which 4 are Russian, 3 are from the
3e United States, 2 are from Great Britain, and 1 is from Brazil. If the tournament
result lists just the nationalities of the players in the order in which they placed, how
many outcomes are possible?
 A First Course in Probability 5

Solution There are

10!
= 12,600
4! 3! 2! 1!
possible outcomes. .

Example How many different signals, each consisting of 9 flags hung in a line, can be made
3f from a set of 4 white flags, 3 red flags, and 2 blue flags if all flags of the same color
are identical?
Solution There are
9!
= 1260
4! 3! 2!
different signals. .

1.4 Combinations
We are often interested in determining the number of different groups of r objects
that could be formed from a total of n objects. For instance, how many different
groups of 3 could be selected from the 5 items A, B, C, D, and E? To answer this
question, reason as follows: Since there are 5 ways to select the initial item, 4 ways to
then select the next item, and 3 ways to select the final item, there are thus 5 · 4 · 3
ways of selecting the group of 3 when the order in which the items are selected is
relevant. However, since every group of 3—say, the group consisting of items A, B,
and C—will be counted 6 times (that is, all of the permutations ABC, ACB, BAC,
BCA, CAB, and CBA will be counted when the order of selection is relevant), it
follows that the total number of groups that can be formed is
5 · 4 · 3
= 10
3 · 2 · 1
In general, as n(n − 1) · · · (n − r + 1) represents the number of different ways that
a group of r items could be selected from n items when the order of selection is
relevant, and as each group of r items will be counted r! times in this count, it follows
that the number of different groups of r items that could be formed from a set of n
items is
n(n − 1) · · · (n − r + 1) n!
=
r! (n − r)! r!

Notation and terminology

 
n
We define , for r … n, by
r
 
n n!
=
r (n − r)! r!
 
n
and say that (read as “n choose r”) represents the number of possible
r
combinations of n objects taken r at a time.†

     
† By convention, 0! is defined to be 1. Thus, n n n
= = 1. We also take to be equal to 0 when
0 n i
either i < 0 or i > n.
6 Chapter 1 Combinatorial Analysis

 
n
Thus, represents the number of different groups of size r that could be
r
selected from a setof nobjects when the order of selection is not considered relevant.
n
Equivalently, is the number of subsets of size r that can be chosen from
r
   
n n n!
a set of size n. Using that 0! = 1, note that = = = 1, which is
n 0 0!n!
consistent with the preceding interpretation because in a set of size n there is exactly
1 subset of size n (namely, the entire set), and exactly
  one subset of size 0 (namely
n
the empty set). A useful convention is to define equal to 0 when either r > n
r
or r < 0.

Example A committee of 3 is to be formed from a group of 20 people. How many different

4a committees are possible?
 
20 20 · 19 · 18
Solution There are = = 1140 possible committees. .
3 3 · 2 · 1

Example From a group of 5 women and 7 men, how many different committees consisting of
4b 2 women and 3 men can be formed? What if 2 of the men are feuding and refuse to
serve on the committee together?
   
5 7
Solution As there are possible groups of 2 women, and possible
2 3
   
5 7
groups of 3 men, it follows from the basic principle that there are =
2 3
 
5 · 4 7 · 6 · 5
= 350 possible committees consisting of 2 women and 3 men.
2 · 1 3 · 2 · 1
  Now
 suppose
 that 2 of 
the men refuse to serve together. Because a total of
2 5 7
= 5 out of the = 35 possible groups of 3 men contain both of
2 1 3
the feuding men, it follows that there are 35 − 5= 30 groups that do not contain
5
both of the feuding men. Because there are still = 10 ways to choose the 2
2
women, there are 30 · 10 = 300 possible committees in this case. .

Example Consider a set of n antennas of which m are defective and n − m are functional
4c and assume that all of the defectives and all of the functionals are considered indis-
tinguishable. How many linear orderings are there in which no two defectives are
consecutive?
Solution Imagine that the n − m functional antennas are lined up among them-
selves. Now, if no two defectives are to be consecutive, then the spaces between the
functional antennas must each contain at most one defective antenna. That is, in the
n − m + 1 possible positions—represented in Figure 1.1 by carets—between the
n − m functional antennas,we must selectm of these in which to put the defective
n − m + 1
antennas. Hence, there are possible orderings in which there is at
m
least one functional antenna between any two defective ones. .
 A First Course in Probability 7

^1^1^1...^1^1^

1 ⫽ functional

^ ⫽ place for at most one defective

Figure 1.1 No consecutive defectives.

A useful combinatorial identity is

     
n n − 1 n − 1
= + 1 … r … n (4.1)
r r − 1 r

Equation (4.1) may be proved analytically or by the following combinatorial argu-

ment: Consider a group of n objects, and fix  attentionon some particular one of
n − 1
these objects—call it object 1. Now, there are groups of size r that con-
r − 1
tain object 1 (since each such group
 is formed
 by selecting r − 1 from the remaining
n − 1
n − 1 objects). Also, there are groups of size r that do not contain object
r
 
n
1. As there is a total of groups of size r, Equation (4.1) follows.
r
 
n
The values are often referred to as binomial coefficients because of their
r
prominence in the binomial theorem.

The binomial theorem

 

n
n
(x + y)n = xk yn−k (4.2)
k
k=0

We shall present two proofs of the binomial theorem. The first is a proof by
mathematical induction, and the second is a proof based on combinatorial consider-
ations.

Proof of the Binomial Theorem by Induction: When n = 1, Equation (4.2) reduces to

   
1 1
x + y= x0 y1 + x1 y0 = y + x
0 1

Assume Equation (4.2) for n − 1. Now,

(x + y)n = (x + y)(x + y)n−1

 

n−1
n − 1
= (x + y) xk yn−1−k
k
k=0
   
 n − 1
n−1 
n−1
n − 1
k+1 n−1−k
= x y + xk yn−k
k k
k=0 k=0
8 Chapter 1 Combinatorial Analysis

Letting i = k + 1 in the first sum and i = k in the second sum, we find that
   
n
n − 1 
n−1
n − 1
n i n−i
(x + y) = xy + xi yn−i
i − 1 i
i=1 i=0
⎡   ⎤

n−1
n − 1 n − 1
= xn + ⎣ + ⎦ xi yn−i + yn
i − 1 i
i=1
 

n−1
n
n
=x + xi yn−i + yn
i
i=1
 

n
n
= xi yn−i
i
i=0

where the next-to-last equality follows by Equation (4.1). By induction, the theorem
is now proved.

Combinatorial Proof of the Binomial Theorem: Consider the product

(x1 + y1 )(x2 + y2 ) · · · (xn + yn )

Its expansion consists of the sum of 2n terms, each term being the product of n fac-
tors. Furthermore, each of the 2n terms in the sum will contain as a factor either xi
or yi for each i = 1, 2, . . . , n. For example,

(x1 + y1 )(x2 + y2 ) = x1 x2 + x1 y2 + y1 x2 + y1 y2

Now, how many of the 2n terms in the sum will have k of the xi ’s and (n − k) of
the yi ’s as factors? As each term consisting of k of the xi ’s and (n − k) of the yi ’s
corresponds
  to a choice of a group of k from the n values x1 , x2 , . . . , xn , there are
n
such terms. Thus, letting xi = x, yi = y, i = 1, . . . , n, we see that
k
 
n
n
n
(x + y) = xk yn−k
k
k=0

Example Expand (x + y)3 .

4d
Solution
       
3 3 0 3 3 1 2 3 2 1 3
(x + y) = x y + x y + x y + x3 y0
0 1 2 3
= y3 + 3xy2 + 3x2 y + x3 .

Example How many subsets are there of a set consisting of n elements?

4e  
n
Solution Since there are subsets of size k, the desired answer is
k
 

n
n
= (1 + 1)n = 2n
k
k=0
 A First Course in Probability 9

This result could also have been obtained by assigning either the number 0 or the
number 1 to each element in the set. To each assignment of numbers, there cor-
responds, in a one-to-one fashion, a subset, namely, that subset consisting of all
elements that were assigned the value 1. As there are 2n possible assignments, the
result follows.
Note that we have included the set consisting of 0 elements (that is, the null set)
as a subset of the original set. Hence, the number of subsets that contain at least 1
element is 2n − 1. .

1.5 Multinomial Coefficients

In this section, we consider the following problem: A set of n distinct items is to be
divided into r distinct groups of respective sizes n1 , n2 , . . . , nr , where ri=1 ni = n.
How many  different
 divisions are possible? To answer this question, we note that
n
there are possible choices for the first group; for each choice of the first group,
n1
 
n − n1
there are possible choices for the second group; for each choice of the
n2
 
n − n1 − n2
first two groups, there are possible choices for the third group; and
n3
so on. It then follows from the generalized version of the basic counting principle
that there are
    
n n − n1 n − n1 − n2 − · · · − nr−1
···
n1 n2 nr
n! (n − n1 )! (n − n1 − n2 − · · · − nr−1 )!
= ···
(n − n1 )! n1 ! (n − n1 − n2 )! n2 ! 0! nr !
n!
=
n1 ! n2 ! · · · nr !
possible divisions.
Another way to see this result is to consider the n values 1, 1, . . . , 1, 2, . . . , 2, . . . ,
r, . . . , r, where i appears ni times, for i = 1, . . . , r. Every permutation of these values
corresponds to a division of the n items into the r groups in the following manner:
Let the permutation i1 , i2 , . . . , in correspond to assigning item 1 to group i1 , item 2 to
group i2 , and so on. For instance, if n = 8 and if n1 = 4, n2 = 3, and n3 = 1, then
the permutation 1, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, 1 corresponds to assigning items 1, 2, 6, 8 to the first
group, items 3, 5, 7 to the second group, and item 4 to the third group. Because every
permutation yields a division of the items and every possible division results from
some permutation, it follows that the number of divisions of n items into r distinct
groups of sizes n1 , n2 , . . . , nr is the same as the number of permutations of n items of
which n1 are alike, and n2 are alike, . . ., and nr are alike, which was shown in Section
n!
1.3 to equal .
n1 !n2 ! · · · nr !
10 Chapter 1 Combinatorial Analysis

Notation
 
n
If n1 + n2 + · · · + nr = n, we define by
n1 , n2 , . . . , nr
 
n n!
=
n1 , n2 , . . . , nr n1 ! n2 ! · · · nr !
 
n
Thus, represents the number of possible divisions of n distinct
n1 , n2 , . . . , nr
objects into r distinct groups of respective sizes n1 , n2 , . . . , nr .

Example A police department in a small city consists of 10 officers. If the department policy is
5a to have 5 of the officers patrolling the streets, 2 of the officers working full time at the
station, and 3 of the officers on reserve at the station, how many different divisions
of the 10 officers into the 3 groups are possible?
10!
Solution There are = 2520 possible divisions. .
5! 2! 3!

Example Ten children are to be divided into an A team and a B team of 5 each. The A team
5b will play in one league and the B team in another. How many different divisions are
possible?
10!
Solution There are = 252 possible divisions. .
5! 5!

Example In order to play a game of basketball, 10 children at a playground divide themselves

5c into two teams of 5 each. How many different divisions are possible?
Solution Note that this example is different from Example 5b because now the
order of the two teams is irrelevant. That is, there is no A or B team, but just a
division consisting of 2 groups of 5 each. Hence, the desired answer is
10!/(5! 5!)
= 126 .
2!
The proof of the following theorem, which generalizes the binomial theorem, is
left as an exercise.

The multinomial theorem

(x1 + x2 + · · · + xr )n =
 
 n n n
x1 1 x2 2 · · · xnr r
n1 , n2 , . . . , nr
(n1 , . . . , nr ) :
n1 + · · · + nr = n

That is, the sum is over all nonnegative integer-valued vectors (n1 , n2 , . . . , nr )
such that n1 + n2 + · · · + nr = n.

 
n
The numbers are known as multinomial coefficients.
n1 , n2 , . . . , nr
 A First Course in Probability 11

Example In the first round of a knockout tournament involving n = 2m players, the n players
5d are divided into n/2 pairs, with each of these pairs then playing a game. The losers
of the games are eliminated while the winners go on to the next round, where the
process is repeated until only a single player remains. Suppose we have a knockout
tournament of 8 players.

(a) How many possible outcomes are there for the initial round? (For instance,
one outcome is that 1 beats 2, 3 beats 4, 5 beats 6, and 7 beats 8.)
(b) How many outcomes of the tournament are possible, where an outcome gives
complete information for all rounds?

Solution One way to determine the number of possible outcomes for the initial
round is to first determine the number of possible pairings for that round. To do so,
note that the number of ways to divide the 8 players into a first pair, a second pair, a
8 8!
third pair, and a fourth pair is = 4 . Thus, the number of possible pair-
2, 2, 2, 2 2
8!
ings when there is no ordering of the 4 pairs is 4 . For each such pairing, there are
2 4!
2 possible choices from each pair as to the winner of that game, showing that there
8!24 8!
are 4 = possible results of round 1. [Another way to see this is to note that
2 4! 4!
8
there are possible choices of the 4 winners and, for each such choice, there are
4
8 8!
4! ways to pair the 4 winners with the 4 losers, showing that there are 4! =
4 4!
possible results for the first round.]
4!
Similarly, for each result of round 1, there are possible outcomes of round 2,
2!
2!
and for each of the outcomes of the first two rounds, there are possible outcomes
1!
of round 3. Consequently, by the generalized basic principle of counting, there are
8! 4! 2!
= 8! possible outcomes of the tournament. Indeed, the same argument
4! 2! 1!
can be used to show that a knockout tournament of n = 2m players has n! possible
outcomes.
Knowing the preceding result, it is not difficult to come up with a more direct
argument by showing that there is a one-to-one correspondence between the set of
possible tournament results and the set of permutations of 1, . . . , n. To obtain such
a correspondence, rank the players as follows for any tournament result: Give the
tournament winner rank 1, and give the final-round loser rank 2. For the two play-
ers who lost in the next-to-last round, give rank 3 to the one who lost to the player
ranked 1 and give rank 4 to the one who lost to the player ranked 2. For the four play-
ers who lost in the second-to-last round, give rank 5 to the one who lost to player
ranked 1, rank 6 to the one who lost to the player ranked 2, rank 7 to the one who
lost to the player ranked 3, and rank 8 to the one who lost to the player ranked 4.
Continuing on in this manner gives a rank to each player. (A more succinct descrip-
tion is to give the winner of the tournament rank 1 and let the rank of a player who
lost in a round having 2k matches be 2k plus the rank of the player who beat him, for
k = 0, . . . , m − 1.) In this manner, the result of the tournament can be represented
by a permutation i1 , i2 , . . . , in , where ij is the player who was given rank j. Because
different tournament results give rise to different permutations, and because there is
a tournament result for each permutation, it follows that there are the same number
of possible tournament results as there are permutations of 1, . . . , n. .
 12 Chapter 1 Combinatorial Analysis
  
2 2 2 0 0 2
Example (x1 + x2 + x3 ) = x1 x2 x3 + x01 x22 x03
5e 2, 0, 0 0, 2, 0
   
2 0 0 2 2
+ x1 x2 x3 + x11 x12 x03
0, 0, 2 1, 1, 0
   
2 2
+ x11 x02 x13 + x01 x12 x13
1, 0, 1 0, 1, 1
= x21 + x22 + x23 + 2x1 x2 + 2x1 x3 + 2x2 x3 .

* 1.6 The Number of Integer Solutions of Equations

An individual has gone fishing at Lake Ticonderoga, which contains four types of
fish: lake trout, catfish, bass, and bluefish. If we take the result of the fishing trip to
be the numbers of each type of fish caught, let us determine the number of possible
outcomes when a total of 10 fish are caught. To do so, note that we can denote the
outcome of the fishing trip by the vector (x1 , x2 , x3 , x4 ) where x1 is the number of
trout that are caught, x2 is the number of catfish, x3 is the number of bass, and x4 is
the number of bluefish. Thus, the number of possible outcomes when a total of 10
fish are caught is the number of nonnegative vectors (x1 , x2 , x3 , x4 ) that sum to 10.
More generally, if we supposed there were r types of fish and that a total of n
were caught then the number of possible outcomes would be the number of nonneg-
ative integer-valued vectors x1 , . . . , xr such that

x1 + x2 + . . . + xr = n (6.1)

To compute this number, let us start by considering the number of positive integer-
valued vectors x1 , . . . , xr that satisfy the preceding. To determine this number, sup-
pose that we have n consecutive values zero lined up in a row:

0 0 0 ... 0 0

Note that any selection of r − 1 of the n − 1 spaces between adjacent zeroes (see
Figure 1.2) corresponds to a positive solution of (6.1) by letting x1 be the number
of zeroes before the first chosen space, x2 be the number of zeroes between the first
and second chosen space, . . ., and xn being the number of zeroes following the last
chosen space.

0^0^0^...^0^0

n objects 0

Choose r ⫺ 1 of the spaces ^.

Figure 1.2 Number of positive solutions.

∗ Asterisks denote material that is optional.

 A First Course in Probability 13

For instance, if we have n = 8 and r = 3, then (with the choices represented by dots)
the choice
0.0 0 0 0.0 0 0

corresponds to the solution x1 = 1, x2 = 4, x3 = 3. As positive solutions of (6.1)

correspond, in a one-to-one fashion, to choices of r − 1 of the adjacent spaces, it
follows that the number of differerent positive solutions is equal to the number of
different selections of r − 1 of the n − 1 adjacent spaces. Consequently, we have
the following
 proposition.

Proposition n − 1
There are distinct positive integer-valued vectors (x1 , x2 , . . . , xr ) satisfy-
6.1 r − 1
ing the equation

x1 + x2 + · · · + xr = n xi > 0, i = 1, . . . , r

To obtain the number of nonnegative (as opposed to positive) solutions, note

that the number of nonnegative solutions of x1 + x2 + · · · + xr = n is the same
as the number of positive solutions of y1 + · · · + yr = n + r (seen by letting
yi = xi + 1, i = 1, . . . , r). Hence, from Proposition 6.1, we obtain the following
proposition.
 
Proposition n + r − 1
There are distinct nonnegative integer-valued vectors (x1 , x2 , . . . , xr )
6.2 r − 1
satisfying the equation
x1 + x2 + · · · + xr = n
 
13
Thus, using Proposition 6.2, we see that there are = 286 possible outcomes
3
when a total of 10 Lake Ticonderoga fish are caught.

Example How many distinct nonnegative integer-valued solutions of x1 + x2 = 3 are possible?

6a  
3 + 2 − 1
Solution There are = 4 such solutions: (0, 3), (1, 2), (2, 1), (3, 0). .
2 − 1

Example An investor has $20,000 to invest among 4 possible investments. Each investment
6b must be in units of $1000. If the total $20,000 is to be invested, how many different
investment strategies are possible? What if not all the money needs to be invested?
Solution If we let xi , i = 1, 2, 3, 4, denote the number of thousands invested in
investment i, then, when all is to be invested, x1 , x2 , x3 , x4 are integers satisfying the
equation
x1 + x2 + x3 + x4 = 20 xi Ú 0
 
23
Hence, by Proposition 6.2, there are = 1771 possible investment strategies. If
3
not all of the money needs to be invested, then if we let x5 denote the amount kept in
reserve, a strategy is a nonnegative integer-valued vector (x1 , x2 , x3 , x4 , x5 ) satisfying
the equation
x1 + x2 + x3 + x4 + x5 = 20
 
24
Hence, by Proposition 6.2, there are now = 10,626 possible strategies. .
4
Another random document with
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ever prominent,—slavery must go, or it must be restricted and kept
out of the territories. The country is in great commotion; state after
state fights out its battles and wheels into line. In border states,
especially, political revolutions are taking place. The gospel of
Liberty is taking the place of the hard political doctrines of pro-
slavery Democracy. Mr. Blaine has to fire at long range, so efficiently
has the work been done at home, but it is cheering to see the
beacons lighted along the coast of Maine, and to know that the
bonfires are lighted all over the state. Men have already been trained
and gone forth to do yeoman service in other states. The Washburns
are in Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, while Israel Washburn, Jr.,
has just been elected governor of the home state.
In 1860 Mr. Blaine is elected speaker of the House, although his
colleague, William T. Johnson, of Augusta, was speaker the year
before. The singular popularity of the man is thus demonstrated, as
he takes the chair, escorted to it by his defeated competitor; his
words are few but in the best of taste. Mr. Blaine said,—
“Gentlemen of the House of Representatives:
“I accept the position you assign me with a due
appreciation, I trust, of the honor it confers and the
responsibility it imposes. In presiding over your
deliberations it shall be my faithful endeavor to administer
the parliamentary rules in such manner that the rights of
minorities shall be protected, the constitutional will of
majorities enforced, and the common weal effectively
promoted. In this labor I am sure I shall not look in vain for
your forbearance as well as your cordial co-operation. I
am ready, gentlemen, to proceed with the business of the
House.”
He is in a position of power and influence now; he is in the third
office of the state. His ability will be tested; great presence of mind,
quickness of decision, tact, and skill are needful. But he is ready and
at his ease. He has the knowledge requisite, and experience seems
born of the man. He fits wherever placed. He must know each
member, and he knows them; he must be just, and fair, and
honorable, and he is all of these by virtue of a broad, generous
nature.
Mr. Blaine is speaker of the House of Representatives of the state of
Maine, not because of any one good quality,—he is excelled in
single qualities by many another,—but because of a large
combination of good qualities, and these, cultivated to a high degree.
This it is that wins; many a face is beautiful in some one or more of
its features, but so distorted in others that the effect is bad, and
beauty, which is the harmonious blending of many lines upon the
canvas or features on the face, is lost. Character is the restoration of
moral order in the individual; let this be broken by some defect,
omission, or failure, some secret or overt act, and the harmony is
lost, and a once fair character is marred.
Thus it is not so much the symmetry as the large and splendid
combination of talents and genius which make him what he is. He
simply does his best, and keeps himself at his best all the time. He
anticipates every occasion, and has forces in reserve all the time,
and they are brought forward, if his tactics are not known, very
unexpectedly. The most telling points in all his earlier speeches are
not brought out at first, and when they do appear you wonder why he
did not produce them before, and this very wonder increases its
power on you. This is rather a necessity, it would seem, because
there is point and pith, and power all through.
A great year of destiny is before the nation; a mighty, conquering
battle-year. Slavery refuses any concessions, and Liberty loves itself
too well to be compromised. The great convention of Republicans in
the old wigwam in Chicago is an event of so great importance that all
minor events dwindle before it. James G. Blaine is there.
Excitement is at the highest pitch. The tone and temper of the North
is felt and feared. The old Democratic party is shattered into
fragments. It has several wings, but no body. The Union seems on
the verge of dissolution. But strong men, tried and true, who cannot
be brow-beaten and crushed; men who have not been deceived or
intimidated, or despoiled of their convictions since the Whig party
sold out to Slavery in 1852; men who have waited eighteen long,
eventful years for the iron to get hot enough to strike, are there; there
in their power; there, not to become demoralized, and drop their
guns and run, but to stand firm and strong in a mighty phalanx, and
do tremendous battle for tremendous right against tremendous
wrong.
William H. Seward is the choice of men, but Abraham Lincoln is the
choice of God. He has been fitting and training him for half a century,
much as he trained Moses, the great leader and emancipator of his
ancient people. They try in vain to elect their man. The way is
hedged up; ballot after ballot is taken, but it cannot be done. Finally,
the moment comes, and “honest old Abe” is crowned by the hand of
a remarkable Providence, and God’s will is done.
Men shake their heads, but high yonder on his throne the King does
his thinking. All is clear to him. Well-nigh a century of prayer is to be
answered.
Mr. Blaine’s description of the sessions and impressions at Chicago,
make the great, inspiring scenes live before the imagination, and
show how his broad, eager mind took it all in.
Ten of the Maine delegation were for Seward, and six for Lincoln. A
meeting was called, and an effort made by the Seward men to win
the Lincoln delegates to their side. Wm. H. Evarts was then in his
prime, and was called in to make the speech. He spoke for forty-five
minutes, and his speech, it was said, was “a string of pearls.” Mr.
Blaine stood just behind him, and though greatly delighted with the
beauty and brilliancy of the address, remained a firm Lincoln man to
the end.
He had no vote then, but he had a voice and a pen. From that time
he was a great admirer and friend of Mr. Evarts. This convention
greatly enlarged Mr. Blaine’s knowledge of men and acquaintance
with them.
The party in the four years since Frémont and Dayton had been
nominated at Philadelphia, under the goading provocations of
Buchanan’s administration, the frequent exhibition of the horns and
hoofs of Slavery, and the unwearied agitation in congress, and in
every state, county, and town of the North, the East, and the West,
had made a sturdy, constant, determined growth, a development of
back-bone, and a kindling of nerve that imparted courage and sent
joy to the heart.
It brought into the life of Mr. Blaine, more than ever, the life and
grandeur, the power and greatness of the party to which he had
wedded his destiny, giving his hand and his heart. He was in
complete sympathy with every principle and every measure. No man
living more fully, and clearly, and strongly, represents the ideas and
purposes of the men then at the front,—the leading men to whom
was entrusted the guidance and responsibility, for he himself was
then at the front,—than does he.
He is, and has been, right through, the defender and conservator of
all that was dear, and precious, and grand, then. Few men did more
to help elect Mr. Lincoln, or to make his administration a power in the
North. He was under fire constantly, but then he was firing constantly
himself, and doing execution that told every hour for the nation’s
good.
The North was surely aroused as never before, on fire with a great
and mighty excitement that rolled in waves and billows from ocean to
lake, and lake to gulf. There was no general on the side of Slavery
that could command all the forces. It had come to be in fact a house
divided against itself. Their convention at Charleston was broken up,
and Mr. Douglas nominated at Baltimore, and two other candidates,
Breckenridge and Bell, elsewhere. The serpent seemed stinging
itself to death. But in the great party of the North there is a solid
front, no waver along the entire line. They simply fight their great
political battle after the true American style of the Fathers, in a most
just and righteous manner, and for a cause most just and righteous.
Mr. Blaine was on the stump, as he had been the year before,
making speeches that the people loved to hear. The campaign
usually closed in Maine in September, when the state officers were
elected, and as the convention in Chicago was held in May, they had
but three months to do the work that other states did in five months.
Owing to the illness of his old friend and business partner, he edited
the Kennebec Journal for five or six months during the summer and
autumn of 1860, so that he was back upon his old ground during the
great campaign, sitting at the same desk.
The people loved him, and he loved them. “Send us Blaine,” would
come from all over the state. “We must have him, we will have him.”
And he would go. It seemed as if he would go farther, do more, and
get back quicker than any other man, and seemingly remember
everybody.
Ex-Gov. Anson P. Morrill, his old political friend and neighbor says, “I
would go out and address perhaps an acre of people, and be
introduced to a lot of them, and like enough, in six months or a year,
along would come a man and say, ‘How are you? Don’t you know
me?’ and I would say ‘No,’ and then the man would turn and go off;
but Blaine would know him as soon as he saw him coming, and say,
‘Hello,’ and call him by name right off.
“There,” he said, and he laid his gold-bowed spectacles on the table,
and continued, “a little better than a year ago he was in here, and we
sat at this table, and the spectacles laid there, and he took them up
and said, as he looked at them closely, ‘If those are not the very
same gold-bowed spectacles you bought in Philadelphia in 1856.’
“‘Why, how do you know?’ I asked in surprise.
“‘Why I was with you, and you bought them at such a place on such
a street.’
“And that,” said the governor, “was twenty-six years before. Now did
you ever hear of anything like that? I didn’t. Why, I’d even forgotten
that he was there. I tell you that beat me; and I asked him ‘what
made you think of it now?’
“‘O, I don’t know,’ said Mr. Blaine, ‘I just happened to see them lying
there, and thought of it.’
“Well, it must be a good thing for you to remember things that way.”
“And he simply replied, without any boasting, or in a way to make his
honored friend feel that he felt his superior faculty in the least,—
“‘O, yes, it is, at times.’”
Gov. A. P. Morrill is a fine sample of a real down-east Yankee, of the
old style; a man of sterling worth and integrity, and of the hardest of
common sense, and takes a special pride in Mr. Blaine, as he was at
one time of great assistance to him in a political way.
“The first time I saw Blaine,” he said, “was the night before my
inauguration; he called at my hotel and wanted a copy of my
address. He was simply a young man then, very pleasant in his
manner. But how he has grown. Yes, that is the secret of it; he has
been a growing man ever since, and so he has come right up and
gone right along.”
His own re-election to the legislature is a minor matter in the
campaign of ’60, in comparison with the election of Mr. Lincoln
president. As this state votes earlier than many of the others, the
effort is to roll up a large majority, and have great gains, so as to
carry moral power with it, and thus encourage other states who are
standing with them in the contest.
It is interesting to note the position of parties or presidential
candidates at this time. Mr. Lincoln would prohibit by law the
extension of slavery. This was exactly the position of the candidate
with him for vice-president, the Hon. Hannibal Hamlin, a strong friend
of Mr. Blaine.
Mr. Hamlin had originally been a Democrat of the Andrew Jackson
type, but when the Missouri Compromise, which prohibited the
extension of slavery, was repealed, he entered the Republican party
at its formation, and as candidate for governor in Maine in 1856, was
a powerful factor in breaking down the Democratic party.
Mr. Breckenridge would extend slavery by law, and was of course
the slave-holders candidate. Douglas, the candidate of the Northern
Democrats, would not interfere; simply do nothing to procure for
slavery other portions of the fair domain of Liberty to despoil. This, of
course made him unpopular in the South, where the demand was for
more states to conquer for our “peculiar institution.” The cry of the
Douglas Democrats,—and they counted their wide-awakes by the
thousand, who marched with torch and drum,—“The Constitution as
it is, and the Union as it was.” The Bell and Everett faction were
simply for saving the Union without telling how.
What a field these four great armies, each with its chosen leader,
occupied, and each conducting a hot, fierce campaign, determined
to win, and determined to believe they would win. Slavery was the
great disturbing element. It was all a question of how to deal with this
monster.
Mr. Lincoln was elected, and Blaine was again on the winning side.
But Mr. Blaine had another great interest in the political campaign of
this year. A Mr. Morse, of Bath, had been in congress from another
part of the third Maine district, in which Augusta is located, and it was
thought time for a change, and Gov. A. P. Morrill wanted Blaine to
run, but Morse was a strong man and Blaine was young, and a new
man comparatively, and though he was speaker of the House of
Representatives, he thought it not prudent at that time to subject
himself to such a test. “Fools rush in where Angels fear to tread.”
Mr. Blaine was in a good position, and growing rapidly, and so he
urged the strong and sagacious governor to try it himself, and Blaine
went into the campaign and helped achieve the victory,—for victory it
was by seven thousand majority.
Mr. Blaine, it would seem, who possessed an instinct for journalism
so wonderful and fine, possessed one equally well-developed for
politics. He well-knew that his rapid promotion would awaken
jealousies, prejudice, and envy, and also that he needed and must
have time to grow. There was one at least in the state legislature
who had been in congress, and he did not wish to “advance
backward,” as the colored servant of the rebel General Buckner
called it.
Mr. Blaine is a man of caution and carefulness, because he is a man
of great thoughtfulness and deliberation. When he has thought a
subject through, and it is settled, and he feels just right, he is ready,
and his courage rises, and so he moves with great power and
determination. If the action seems rash to any, it is because they are
not informed upon a subject upon which he is conversant.
Mr. Blaine had seen his man nominated at Chicago, and
triumphantly elected over a stupendous, well-organized, and
desperate opposition. He himself is returned to the legislature. His
friend, Ex-Gov. A. P. Morrill, is secured for congress, and Israel
Washburn, Jr., a grand Republican, elected governor over the man
who felt and learned to fear the power of Mr. Blaine in the legislature
the year before, Ephraim K. Smart. But, notwithstanding all of these
triumphs, and the prospective cleansing and regeneration of the
country, the present condition is most appalling.
Secession is the chief topic throughout the South, and in every
debating society in every college, and in every lyceum in every town
or city, the question is being discussed with the greatest warmth,
“Can a Southern state secede?” or “Can the government coerce a
state?” The old doctrine of state rights and state sovereignty is the
form of the topic in other quarters.
With many the question was clear on the asking of it; with others the
constitutional powers of self-preservation, of self-existence, and self-
perpetuation had to be presented with the arguments and the
acumen of a statesman. Perhaps Mr. Blaine, as an editor, never
dealt with a question in a more masterly way. It was the question of
the hour continually forcing itself upon attention.
It was the constant assertion of the Southern press that they would.
They believed all sorts of unkind things about the great and kindly
Lincoln. The fact is, the South had never before been defeated in a
contest for the presidency when slavery was involved in the issue.
This was their pet and idol. They would guard it at all hazards.
Fanaticism they regarded as the animus of the anti-slavery
movement, and an abolitionist to them was a malefactor.
A grave responsibility now was on those who “broke down the
adjustments of 1820, and of 1850.” But the year was closing, and the
glare of a contest more fierce than that through which we had
passed, was on the nation. It seemed inevitable. They had grown so
narrow, intolerant, and cruel, that the light of present political truth
did not penetrate them.
“Southern statesmen of the highest rank,” said Mr. Blaine, “looked
upon British emancipation in the West Indies as designedly hostile to
the prosperity and safety of their own section, and as a plot for the
ultimate destruction of the Republic.” They were suspicious, and
filled with alarm; and it was needless, as the action of Mr. Lincoln in
proclaiming emancipation was only when, in the second year of the
war, it was necessary.
The era of peace seems breaking with the hand of cruel war. It was
night to them, but a glorious day to us.
We close this chapter with this fresh, new poem of the time, by
Whittier.
At a time when it was rumored that armed men were drilling by the
thousands in Virginia and Maryland, for the invasion of Washington
before February, so as to prevent the announcement in congress of
Lincoln’s election, in the same issue of the Kennebec Journal, was a
poem by John G. Whittier, closing with these lines:—

“The crisis presses on us; face to face with us it stands,

With solemn lips of question, like the sphinx in Egypt’s
sands!
This day we fashion Destiny, our web of Fate we spin;
This day for all hereafter choose we holiness or sin;
Even now from starry Gerizim, or Ebal’s cloudy crown,
We call the dews of blessing, or the bolts of cursing down.

“By all for which the Martyrs bore their agony and shame;
By all the warning words of truth with which the prophets
came;
By the future which awaits us; by all the hopes which cast
Their faint and trembling beams across the blackness of the
Past;
And in the awful name of Him who for earth’s freedom died;
Oh, ye people! Oh, my brothers! let us choose the righteous
side.

“So shall the Northern pioneer go joyful on his way,

To wed Penobscot’s waters to San Francisco’s bay;
To make the rugged places smooth, and sow the vales of
grain,
And bear, with Liberty and Law, the Bible in his train;
The mighty West shall bless the earth, and sea shall answer
sea,
A mountain unto mountain calls, ‘Praise God, for we are
free!’”
 VIII.
SPEAKER OF THE MAINE LEGISLATURE.

O one read the signs of the times with a clearer

understanding of their significance, all through the winter
and spring of 1861, than the Speaker of the House of
Representatives in the Legislature of Maine. The great
duties that devolved upon him filled his mind with every important
matter, but the overshadowing interests were all national,—the
present and future of the country. They had become accustomed to
threats and fears; this had grown to be the normal condition of the
public mind. But the short, sharp question “What is the latest from
Charleston, Richmond” and other points of prominence and activity
in the South, showed how squarely up to the times people of the
North were living; how loyal and zealous for the nation the masses
were.
It was a higher compliment, in times so great in their demands for
the profoundest deliberations of the best minds, to be put at the
head, as the leader in positions of greatest power in the House.
Known and acknowledged worth could have been the only argument
for an action so personal to the honor of the state and its power in
the Union, and helpfulness to the nation in an emergency imminent
with danger.
This man of one and thirty is lifted over the heads of old and
respected citizens of soundest integrity. Is it an experiment, or do
they know their man? The state has called to the helm a man who
has been ten years in the congress of the United States; a man of
largest experience and profoundest wisdom, nearly twice the age of
the young speaker. But no mistake is made. He read in his youth
books that Governor Morrill is reading to-day at the age of eighty-
one; he has been a college-graduate for nearly fourteen years, and
has won his present distinction upon the floor of the house where he
now presides.
His duties are manifold. He must preside over the deliberations of
the House, be a good parliamentarian, prompt and accurate in his
decisions, as well as fair and impartial. He is dealing with freemen
and citizens, and representatives of the people of the entire state. He
must know every member, not by name, and face, and location in the
House, but in characteristics and accomplishments, all the great
interests of the state, as a whole, of its different sections, and in its
Federal relations, so that he may wisely appoint the twenty-one
important committees. He must know the business, education,
experience, residence, and political principles of every member, so
that he may know just who to appoint on banks and banking, on
agriculture, military, pensions, manufactures, library, the judiciary, the
militia, education, etc.
There are one hundred and forty-four members, twenty-three of
whom are Democrats, and he must use them all. He must select two
chairmen for each committee, and choose six or eight others to act
with them, putting some of the more valuable men on several
committees,—all must be treated with honor and fairness.
What did those one hundred and forty-four men see in James G.
Blaine, away back in the stormy, perilous times of 1861, that led
them to select him for that high and honorable position? He had not
been a citizen of Maine six years, and had been in political life,
officially, only two years. It was the man they saw, strong and
splendid, just the man for the hour. They felt, instinctively, they could
trust him; they knew him to be loyal and true, and capable, by the
testimony of all their senses. He was quick and keen, and life itself in
all of energy and endeavor; a born leader of men.
He had no wealthy and influential friend by his side, no one to say I
have known him from childhood, and can recommend him as worthy
of all honor, and all praise. He brought with him simply the name his
mother gave him, with no prefix and no affix. He lived in no mansion,
rode in no carriage, was attended by no courtiers in livery; he had no
returns to make, no promises to give. The whole of him sat before
them,—a refined and courteous gentleman, an elegant gentleman.
They could not mistake the powerful combination. They saw and felt
its worth, and so the great party which had just come into power in
the nation by electing its first president, honors itself by honoring
him.
His short-cut words of acceptance are uttered. The senate and the
new governor, Israel Washburn, Jr., are informed that the House is
organized, and they proceed to business with energy and despatch.
But the great war for the Union is coming. The peace convention
called by Virginia amounts to nothing. Mr. Crittenden’s resolutions
are futile, though most conventions adopt them in Philadelphia and
elsewhere. Southern states are actually seceding.
Mr. Lincoln is choosing and announcing his cabinet, with Seward as
his Premier, but treason is rampant in the South, holding high
carnival in state capitals, and even in the halls of congress. Mr.
Lincoln is on his way to Washington. He reaches Philadelphia on
Feb. 22d, at seven o’clock; is escorted to Independence Hall, where
Theodore Cuyler, in whose office Mr. Blaine read law, receives him
with an address of welcome, to which Mr. Lincoln replied, and “raised
the national flag which had been adjusted in true man-of-war style,
amid the cheers of a great multitude, and the cheers were repeated
until men were hoarse.”
While these patriotic cheers were resounding through the old halls of
Independence, the traitorous secretaries of the navy and of war were
sending vessels to southern ports and forts. Thirty-three officers,
among whom was Albert Sidney Johnson, abandon their regiments
of the regular army in Texas, and join the rebels. But Lincoln is
inaugurated, and the most pacific measures employed, but all of no
avail; determined, desperate men are ruling the destiny of the South.
The South was in no condition of want at this time, but rather in a
condition of prosperity, and its proud, haughty spirit seemed rather
born of luxury and extravagance.
Mr. Blaine has shown that she had increased in ten years before the
war three thousand millions of dollars, and this not from over-
valuation of slaves, but from cultivation of the land by new and
valuable appliances of agriculture. One state alone,—Georgia,—had
increased in wealth three hundred millions of dollars. But South
Carolina had commenced in October,—before Mr. Lincoln’s election
even,—her correspondence upon the subject of secession. No
wonder she was ready in the April following to inaugurate the war of
the Rebellion.
Mr. Blaine’s life could not be put into the nation, nor the life of any
strong, true man, at a time when it would be more valuable than now.
Men were men in earnest. They rose to par, and some, by a
mathematical process which redoubles energy and intensifies life,
are cubed or squared or lifted to the hundredth power; a premium is
on them; they are invaluable.
The governor issues his call for ten thousand men from Maine. Will
Mr. Blaine go? Mr. Garfield is in the state senate of Ohio, and
president of a college, but he drops all at once, and is soon at the
front with his regiment. His stay is short, however. Elected to
congress, by advice of President Lincoln he lays aside the dress of a
major-general on Saturday to enter the national House of
Representatives, a congressman in citizen’s dress, the following
Monday.
What will Mr. Blaine do? He is speaker of the House, and that gives
his name a power in the state. He is wielding a powerful pen as
editor of the leading daily paper at Portland. Few men in the state
have more influence; some must stay; the state must be aroused
and electrified; an immense work of organization is to be done. It is a
less conspicuous, more quiet home-work, but it is of the utmost
importance.
He stays, while many, like Garfield, go to return to do the
statesman’s work and make available the resources of the nation,
and strengthen the hands of the brave men at the front.
This was a work of vast importance in the conduct of the war. It was
power that was felt by both governor and president, by army and
navy. Mr. Blaine was on terms of intimacy with the governor of his
state,—a firm supporter of a faithful man. Very soon he was
instrumental in raising two regiments, and rallied thousands more to
the standard of the Union.
He became at this time chairman of the Republican State Central
Committee, and continued in this position for twenty years. He
planned every campaign, selected the speakers, fixed dates and
places for them, and so arranged all details, that no man of his ever
disappointed an audience. He knows the time of departure and
arrival of every train. He must do his part to see that the legislature
continues Republican, that the governor and his council are
Republican, that congressmen and senators of the United States are
Republican, and that the war-power of the state is not broken.
The great question for him to aid largely in settling is the worth of the
state of Maine to the nation. She must have governors that are in full
sympathy with the president; congressmen and senators that uphold
his administration.
In North’s History of Augusta, a valuable work of nearly a thousand
pages, it is recorded of Mr. Blaine that “probably no man in Maine
exerted a more powerful influence on the patriotic course pursued
than he. Ever active, always watchful, never faltering, he inspired
confidence in the cause of the Union in its darkest days.”
At the close of the first session of the legislature over which Mr.
Blaine presided, the leading Democrat in the House, a Mr. Gould,
from Thomaston, arose after remarks of great pathos and
tenderness, and presented this resolution:—
“Resolved, That the thanks of this House are presented to
the Hon. James G. Blaine, for the marked ability, the
urbanity and impartiality with which he has presided over
its deliberations, and for the uniform amenity of his
personal intercourse with its members.”
He bore testimony to the “marvelous despatch with which the formal
parts of the business had been done, and so the session greatly
shortened.”
The resolution was adopted by a unanimous vote, and Mr. Blaine
said,—
“Gentlemen of the House of Representatives:
“You will accept my most grateful acknowledgments for
the very cordial manner in which you have signified your
approbation of my course as your presiding officer. I beg in
return to witness to the dignity, the diligence, and the
ability with which you have severally discharged your
representative trusts. We met, many of us, as strangers;
may I not hope that we all part as friends, and parting,
may we bear to our homes the recollection of duties
faithfully performed, and the consciousness of having
done something to promote the prosperity and welfare of
our honored state. I bid you farewell.”
This was on the 18th of March, and on the 22d of April, the war
having broken out, they were assembled again in extra session, Mr.
Blaine in the chair. In three days and a half provisions were made for
raising troops and money for the war, and legislation pertaining to
militia-laws was enacted, etc. The wildest rumors filled the air. The
country seemed transformed at once into a turbulent sea, but men
did not lose their reckoning. Latitude and longitude were things too
deeply fixed and broadly marked to be unseen or ignored. The storm
blew from a single quarter. Its long gathering had made it black and
fierce. It struck the gallant ship of state. She was reeling with the
shock of war.
Never did the beauty and worth of federal states appear to better
advantage than when the impoverished and plundered government
called on them for aid. It was the parent’s call upon her children for
defence against their own misguided sisters. Never was mechanism
more finely adjusted, or power more equally balanced, than in the
Republic. Very distinct and separate are head and feet and hands,
eyes and ears, yet nothing is more perfect in its unity.
It is much the same with the great union of states. They are
separated far, and quite distinct in varied interests, but one in
powerful unity. But the time had come to show the strength of that
unity. All there was of the great mind and heart and life of Mr. Blaine
was given to the nation in holiest exercise of all his powers.
While eighty thousand of the foe are opposing thirty-five thousand of
our troops at Manassas Junction, and Colonel Ellsworth is losing his
life at Alexandria; while Stephen A. Douglas is delivering in early
June his last eloquent words, straight and heroic for the nation; while
the bankers of Boston, New York, and Philadelphia are casting one
hundred and fifty millions of dollars into the national treasury at
Washington, and the brave General Lyon with eight thousand men is
routing twenty-three thousand of the enemy in Missouri, at the cost
of his life,—while all the activities of that first summer of war are
going on, Mr. Blaine is facing a political storm of great severity, as
general-in-chief in the campaign that places Israel Washburn, Jr.,
again in the gubernatorial chair of the state, and keeps the reins of
government in Republican hands.
It has been a question often debated whether the nation is most
indebted to her warriors or her statesmen. There can be no
hesitation in deciding, where the mere question of life is considered,
or the hardships of camp and march and field are included in the
account. And yet Lincoln, nor Garfield wore a uniform when the
bullet struck.
No one thinks their patriotism less intense, or that of cabinet, or
senators and members of the house, or governors and council, or
members of legislatures less ardent in their love of country, and zeal
for the honor of her imperilled cause. At such times all true hearts
are one, and the blood that throbs in hands and heart and feet is all
the same.
Mr. Blaine was re-elected to his accustomed place in the legislature
of the state. The terrific war rages on. The demand for troops
increases,—is indeed quadrupled,—and the state must be brought
up to her quota by methods the wisest and best. And again and
again the clarion voice of the speaker of the House rings over the
state with no uncertain sound. Companies and regiments are
formed, and these must be filled. The fires burning so brightly, must
burn brighter. Intense love must be intensified. The news of terrible
battles thrills over the state almost daily. The romance of war is over.
Its gilt edge is gone. It is hard, desperate, bloody work. Their sons
and brothers and fathers are falling by the score and hundred at the
front. The bloody work has been done at Ball’s Bluff and Port Royal.
Sons of Maine are in Libby Prison and at Belle Isle.
The hard, serious question is discussed in every home. It fills the
dreams of yeomanry,—“Shall I go?” “Can I go?” All that is sacred in
business and religion in home and country is the question. Men are
lifted by appeals almost divine in eloquence, above any petty
consideration, to the grave question of the nation’s life and destiny.
Their names go down by scores and hundreds. Regiments and
brigades seem born in a day. They come from all ranks and
conditions,—from pulpit and press, from farm and shop, from bank
and office, and store and halls of state,—and are transformed in an
hour from citizens to soldiers, and march away to the front. Steamer
and car swarm with them.
The music dies away down the river, and they are gone,—gone
perhaps forever. Good-byes are cherished in heart of hearts, and
kisses from mother, father, lover, friend, are carried away like
cameos of thought, the sacred things of memory.
In the autumn we find Mr. Blaine in Washington, probably for the first
time, but not in official relations to the government. He must have a
nearer view of the great scenes being enacted. He must know the
men who are wielding the nation’s power, and put his finger on the
pulse of war, and gather material for the more intense activity his
work at home assumes. He must see the great-hearted Lincoln, and
shake his hand, and give him cheer.
Fessenden, Hamlin, and Morrill are there, for congress is in session
in a city fortified, and its streets patrolled by soldiers. Andrew
Johnson is the only senator present from eleven seceded states.
Breckenridge, mortified by the vote of his state, and the rebuke and
the castigation the dead Douglas had given him in the early spring,
was present from Kentucky; and Lane and Pomeroy were in their
seats from the new, free state of Kansas, as her first senators. And
the two Union senators were there,—Messrs. Willy and Carlisle,—
from the western portion of seceded Virginia. Only five free states
had other than Republican senators. Bright, Breckenridge, and Polk
were expelled.
Chase, and Cameron, and Seward had entered the cabinet, but an
impressive array of talent remained in the senate, to be studied by
our rising young statesman to best advantage. Charles Sumner and
Henry Wilson were there from Massachusetts; Zachariah Chandler,
and Bingham, of Michigan; Wilkinson of Minnesota; John P. Hale and
Daniel Clark, of New Hampshire; Benjamin F. Wade and John
Sherman, of Ohio; Wilmot and Cowan, of Pennsylvania; James R.
Doolittle and Timothy O. Hone, of Wisconsin. Jacob Collamore,
formerly in General Taylor’s cabinet, a ripe, scholarly man, was a
senator from Vermont, and Simmons and Anthony, from Rhode
Island.
On his first visit to the National Capital, Mr. Blaine could not fail to
visit the House where he himself was destined to have a career so
famous and honorable alike to himself, his state, and the nation.
There was his friend, Anson P. Morrill, who had desired him to take
the nomination to congress the present session, rather than himself,
and Galusha A. Grow, from his native state, a member of the
convention which has just nominated him for the presidency, and of
the committee notifying of the same, was then in the chair to be
reserved for him as speaker of that house. Thaddeus Stevens,
fearless, able, of intrepid spirit and strong character, the best hater of
slavery on the continent, hating even those who did not hate it, was
the natural leader of the House, assuming his place by common
consent. He attracted Mr. Blaine’s special attention.
John Hickman and Edward McPherson were with him from
Pennsylvania; and from New York there were Reuben E. Fenton,
experienced and strong in public affairs, Elbridge G. Spaulding, the
financier, William A. Wheeler, since vice-president, secretary
Seward’s friend and confidant, Theodore Pomeroy.
“The ablest and most brilliant man of the delegation,” says Mr.
Blaine, “was Roscoe Conkling. He had been elected to the preceding
congress when but twenty-nine years of age, and had exhibited a
readiness and elegance in debate that placed him at once in the
front rank. His command of language was remarkable. In affluent
and exhuberant diction Mr. Conkling was never surpassed in either
branch of congress, unless, perhaps, by Rufus Choate.”
Massachusetts had a strong delegation, headed by Henry L. Dawes,
and with him were A. H. Rice, since governor of the state, Elliott,
Alley, and William Appleton. Missouri sent Blair and Rollins, from the
battle-field. Crittenden, who had been six times elected to the
senate, in two cabinets, appointed to the supreme bench, was then
in the house, seeking with Charles A. Wickliffe, to save Kentucky to
the Union, against the treasonable conspiracies of Breckenridge.
With Crittenden and Wickliffe strong for the Union, were Robert
Mallory, James S. Jackson, and William H. Wadsworth, keeping up
the almost even balance of power in their state. Gilman Marston was
there from New Hampshire, soon to become conspicuous in the
field. Justin S. Morrill from Vermont, Frederick A. Pike, and the
brother of senator Fessenden from Maine, in company with Ex-Gov.
Anson P. Morrill. Illinois, Ohio, and Indiana had strong men there
also, as did Iowa and Minnesota.
Elihu B. Washburn, Owen Lovejoy, William A. Richardson, and John
A. Logan, represented the state of Lincoln and Grant; Schuyler
Colfax, George W. Julian, Albert G. Porter, Wm. McKee Dunn, and
Daniel W. Voorhees, were there from Indiana; and from the state of
Garfield, Bingham, Shellabarger, Horton, and Ashley. Pendleton,
Vallandigham, and S. S. Cox were on the Democratic side.
It must have been the dawn of an era of new inspirations and of
fresh aspirations, to look in upon such a body of men, only a few of
the leaders of whom we have mentioned.
Anson P. Morrill had written him, six months before he let anyone
else into the secret, that he should not run again for congress. His
business required his attention, having extensive woolen mills some